What Can We Expect From Kris Bryant Next Year?

We’ve come to the end of the 2015 regular season and it’s time to start looking towards the playoffs. As with every year there have been surprises and disappointments. One of the most anticipated events of each season is the debut of rookies and how they will perform throughout the year. Big things were expected from Kris Bryant this year and he definitely did not disappoint. Originally drafted by the Blue Jays in 2010 in the 18th round (546th overall), he was committed to the University of San Diego and the Jays didn’t offer enough to sway him. In 2013, the Cubs drafted him 2nd overall and he did nothing but climb the ranks until he made his MLB debut on April 17, 2015. His first game didn’t go as well as he hoped, going 0-4 with 3 K’s, but debuts mean nothing except for a little extra media hoopla. He cruised the rest of the way through the season on his way to one of the most impressive rookie seasons in recent memory, posting the 3rd highest WAR of any rookie since 2001. Only Mike Trout (10.3 WAR in 2012) and Albert Pujols (7.2 WAR in 2001) posted higher better WARs in their rookie campaigns.

I was looking over Bryant’s stats and his K% really jumped out at me. Although Bryant hit 26 home runs on the year, I began to wonder if there were any comparable seasons. Now the only criteria I used for comparison was: (1) as many or more home runs (26) and (2) equal or greater K%. Only 13 other players met this criteria since 2001 and they are listed in the table below.

Name	Year	G	PA	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	K%	BB%	WAR
Kris Bryant	2015	151	650	26	99	0.275	0.369	30.6	11.8	6.5
Chris Davis	2015	157	656	45	112	0.258	0.355	31.4	12.3	4.9
Chris Carter	2014	145	572	37	88	0.227	0.308	31.8	9.8	1.8
Chris Davis	2014	127	525	26	72	0.196	0.300	33.0	11.4	0.8
Chris Carter	2013	148	585	29	82	0.223	0.320	36.2	12.0	0.5
Adam Dunn	2013	149	607	34	86	0.219	0.320	31.1	12.5	0.3
Pedro Alvarez	2012	149	586	30	85	0.244	0.317	30.7	9.7	2.2
Adam Dunn	2012	151	649	41	96	0.204	0.333	34.2	16.2	2.0
Mark Reynolds	2011	155	620	37	86	0.221	0.323	31.6	12.1	0.1
Adam Dunn	2010	158	648	38	103	0.260	0.356	30.7	11.9	3.0
Mark Reynolds	2010	145	596	32	85	0.198	0.320	35.4	13.9	1.7
Mark Reynolds	2009	155	662	44	102	0.260	0.349	33.7	11.5	3.3
Mark Reynolds	2008	152	613	28	97	0.239	0.320	33.3	10.4	1.3
Ryan Howard	2007	144	648	47	136	0.268	0.392	30.7	16.5	3.1

Besides an awfully high K%, for which he ranks 23rd overall since 2001, out of all the players on this list, he posted the most impressive WAR. He’s also in some pretty elite company with respect to power hitters. There are four 40+ home run seasons on that list and many 30+ homer seasons. In addition to providing value with his bat, he also provided a positive UZR rating at a highly demanding defensive position. This combination is what made Kris Bryant so attractive to teams since the 2010 draft.

Using the same player list as above, I looked at their seasonal BABIPs, and I found one particular season of interest. Bryant’s 2015 season. Bryant posted a 0.381 BABIP this year, and the next-closest player on the list was Mark Reynold’s 2009 season at 0.338 which is still quite a difference. Looking at Mark Reynold’s seasonal stats from 2008 to 2011, his batting average follows the same pattern as his BABIP.

Name	Year	BABIP
Kris Bryant	2015	0.381
Chris Davis	2015	0.315
Chris Carter	2014	0.267
Chris Davis	2014	0.242
Chris Carter	2013	0.311
Adam Dunn	2013	0.266
Pedro Alvarez	2012	0.308
Adam Dunn	2012	0.246
Mark Reynolds	2011	0.266
Adam Dunn	2010	0.329
Mark Reynolds	2010	0.257
Mark Reynolds	2009	0.338
Mark Reynolds	2008	0.323
Ryan Howard	2007	0.328

And a plot showing the relationship between AVG and BABIP (data from 2001 to 2015). There is an increasing relationship between the two, but there is some pretty wide variation. Nonetheless, I’ve highlighted Bryant’s data point from the 2015 season in red and it’s pretty clear that it represents an outlier for his batting average.

If we consider that the players listed in the tables above are from the same pedigree, their career BABIPs average out to around 0.298. Now I’m not saying Kris Bryant is going to follow the same trend, but based on the strikeout rate he posted this year he’s very aggressive at the plate and I know we are going to expect that inflated BABIP to come back down to Earth so I think we can expect some regression next year. As a reference Danny Santana posted a BABIP of 0.405 in 2014 only to drop down to 0.290 this year which saw his WAR plummet from 3.3 to -1.4. I looked at the relationship between HR, SB and a few other stats and batting average showed the highest correlation with BABIP from the stats I looked at. Based on this I expect his batting average will be the most likely to be affected with a downfall of BABIP. I really don’t think the home runs are going to go anywhere, but I think we can likely expect to watch that batting average fall. It remains to be seen how this will affect his peripheral stats, but as long as he continues providing solid defense at the hot corner he is going to provide lots of value on a major-league roster. I’m sorry to say Cubs fans I think you should expect some offensive woes next year.