Kershaw vs. Arrieta: Battle for the NL Cy Young

Now that the regular season is over, it’s time to talk about awards. I mean people were already talking about awards, but now it’s time to really start talking about awards. Perhaps the most hotly contested award this year is the NL Cy Young. Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Jake Arrieta are in three-headed race for the award, and they’re all incredibly close in terms of quality of performance, making it nigh impossible to pick a single winner. So I thought I’d give picking one the old college try. For simplicity reasons I decided to only compare Kershaw and Arrieta, who seem to be the two most often pegged as deserving in the sabermetric community. So, let’s dive in.

First things first, Kershaw has a pretty significant advantage when it comes to FIP metrics. His 29 K-BB% is seven percentage points higher than Arrieta’s 22%. Kershaw’s huge lead in strike-zone control more than makes up for the fact that he’s let up home runs a bit more often than Arrieta (10% and 8% HR/FB rate respectively). Boiling it down, Arrieta’s 61 FIP- trails behind Kershaw’s (52) by almost ten points.

Where things start to get murky is when one looks into their contact management ability. On the surface it appears Arrieta has a leg up here. Their IFFB% is basically identical. But as I mentioned before Arrieta has given up a few less home runs, and has also induced more groundballs.

Arrieta’s production on groundballs is also much better: he’s allowed a .377 OPS on grounders to Kershaw’s .468. Although it’s not that simple, because all defenses are not created equally, and the quality of the fielders behind you can have a big effect on the production of the groundballs you induce. So in that respect it’s worth noting that the Cubs ranked 6th in UZR/150 among all teams, while the Dodgers ranked 13th.

But there’s other ways of determining groundball production. Grounders that are pulled, generally, are more likely to turn into outs than grounders hit to the opposite field. Thus, it would make sense that a pitcher who gets batters to pull their grounders more often would have better production on their grounders, regardless of the quality of his team’s defense. So who’s induced pulled grounders more often? It turns out Arrieta – although only by the slightest margin. He’s induced a pulled groundball on 0.052% of his pitches, while Kershaw’s done the same on 0.047% of his.

So the difference between their pull rates is essentially negligible. But there’s more ways yet to evaluate groundball production. For instance, the velocity on those groundballs. Logic dictates that it’s easier to field a slow-moving groundball than a fast-moving one. After all, slow things are generally easier to pick up than fast things. Thus a pitcher who is more disposed to generate grounders of modest velocity is more likely to have better production on those groundballs, once again regardless of defense.

To figure out who had been better at coaxing soft grounders, I employed Baseball Savant’s PITCHf/x search tool. I set the batted-ball type to groundballs for obvious reasons. I set the maximum batted-ball velocity at 80 MPH because I couldn’t find the league average and 80 seems like a reasonable number. As it turns out, Arrieta has produced soft grounders on a greater number of his pitches than Kershaw (4.4% to 3.6%). Again the difference isn’t huge (the separation between the best and the worst in this particular metric is only about 4.5%) , but further implicates that Arrieta has been the better manager of contact. To sum it up, It does appear as though Arrieta has an advantage in the contact-management department, but not as large as it looks at first glance.

At the end of the day, these are two similarly great pitchers having two great similarly great seasons, and both should be celebrated as such. But if I had to pick one for award purposes, I think I’d go with Kershaw. If only because I believe more in his strike-zone-control numbers than Arrieta’s contact-management ones.





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Jim
8 years ago

This is typical favoritism of a Los Asngeles player. Anybody who saw Arietta no hit the Dogers and then totally dominate the Pirates last night running his record to 23-6 knows he is the dominant pitcher in the National League.

cornflake5000
8 years ago
Reply to  Jim

The CY has already been voted for. Last night was a playoff game and doesn’t count towards the CY or Arrieta’s regular season stats.

aram
8 years ago
Reply to  Jim

So the guy can’t write an article? What are you, a Cubs homer? Jeez mellow out crybaby.

Ronson
8 years ago
Reply to  aram

Are you a Dodger’s homer? Cause he’s absolutely right.

Terry
8 years ago

Seconded on Arrieta. This article can be summed up by Jake’s own words after the domination “well, I don’t know what game you were watching, but…”
Arrieta should get the Cy Young because he’s been dominant like that pretty much all year.

David
8 years ago

The bottom line to me is Kershaw, Greinke, an Arrieta are all amazing pitchers. I personally tend to subscribe to the Greinke/Arrieta Cy young debate, but no matter how you look at it–Arrieta’s name is always in a race with some different pitcher…
Therefore Arrieta seems like the obvious choice.
That being said, I am a Cubs fan…

cornflake5000
8 years ago
Reply to  David

I’m a Cubs fan too, but Arrieta’s name wasn’t mentioned until the no-hitter. Grienke has been the leader the entire season.

Bob says so
8 years ago

The point if this article is to point out that it’s very close, VERY close. The author should stop short of (being a homer and) giving the edge to Kershaw for something that matters very little in pitching. Might as well give it to Kershaw because you like his name better.
Give me Arrieta all day long.

DodgerBall75
8 years ago

I think our rotation of Kershaw/Greinke is a little bit better duo than Lester and Arrieta, I think the Cubs get the vote for better singular pitcher.Arrieta should win but it will be close

Brad Machado
8 years ago
Reply to  DodgerBall75

Kershaw and Greinke are far superior to Lester and Arrieta. Lester wasn’t even a .500 pitcher. 13 more wins for his career than Kershaw and 4 years older.

Ryan
8 years ago
Reply to  Brad Machado

Pitcher wins? You’re better than that.

George foley
8 years ago

easy way to pick cy young. Give it to jake over Clayton as Clayton will win it next year or year after and Cubs rarely take home any awards

Brad Machado
8 years ago
Reply to  George foley

So Arrieta who is 2 years older than Kershaw and is having the only good year he’s EVER had in the majors should win? Clayton has twice as many career wins, a zillion more strikeouts and has won multiple awards and does it year after year. Arrieta is a one year wonder.

Matt
8 years ago
Reply to  Brad Machado

Umm yea, Arrieta had a 2.53 ERA in 2014 so definitely not a one year wonder. Also you are obviously a Dodgers fan so you know that the only other good team in the NL West is the Giants so Kershaw has easy opponents for a ton of games. Meanwhile Arrieta and the Cubs face the Pirates and Cardinals, the 2 best teams in baseball this season around 50 times a season combined meaning Arrieta likely gets 10 starts against them. They are both amazing pitchers, that said Arrieta is definitely not a 1 year wonder as you claimed and is ever so slightly in my mind more deserving of the Cy Young than Kershaw this season. For the record I am a Rockies fan not a Cubs fan.

aram
8 years ago
Reply to  Matt

the only other good team in the NL West is not the Giants. I thought this was Fangraphs not ESPN comment boards.

Matt
8 years ago
Reply to  aram

well just saying the Giants and Dodgers were the only teams in the NL West above .500

Ronson
8 years ago
Reply to  Matt

Don’t waste your time, Matt. The Dodger homers are just having a hard time picking which cheese to have with their whine.

Matt
8 years ago
Reply to  Brad Machado

Also the Cy Young is an award for the season, career stats don’t mean diddly.

Otter
8 years ago

It’s Kershaw. Arretia’s been great but Kershaw’s been better. Walks fewer batters, strikes out more, and hasn’t been as relent on BABIP and HR/FB%.

Otter
8 years ago
Reply to  Otter

reliant, sorry about that.

Mike
8 years ago

Not sure about this “new math” as a way to evauate pitchers. I have played ball into my early twenties and been a fan of the game since I was six years old. In my almost seventy years of enjoying baseball. I think this is a foolish way to evaluate players, especially pitchers. It should be done the old fashioned way, Wins, win-loss percentage, ERA, Stopper rating (stop a losing streak) and leadership. Another factor is how the pitcher shows up in pressure games such as games against rivals and in playoffs. In my mind, Arrieta has demonstrated all those qualities this year beyond what Kershaw and Greinke have. Remember this is an award based on performance for the 2015 season not the past several years.

Otter
8 years ago
Reply to  Mike

If this is the line of thinking, then Greinke probably should win. Lower ERA, 19 wins, only 3 losses… Arrieta’s got him on strike outs, but then here comes Clayton making Arrieta’s strike out numbers look puny.

Luke
8 years ago
Reply to  Otter

Not to mention the five or so wins the Dodgers blew for greinke during that 9 start streak of no decisions when he wasn’t giving up any runs …plus 22 starts of one run or fewer …it’s gotta be greinke …he’s been it all year ….and everybody is here bashing the nl west …giants Rockies and diamondbacks where all top five in the nl in offense …

Captain Tenneal
8 years ago
Reply to  Mike

If wins are so important in your eyes, then why even care about ERA?

Noah Baronmember
8 years ago
Reply to  Mike

This might not be the blog for you then.

Josh
8 years ago

Arrieta also allows a higher percentage of hard hit grounders and hits in general than Kershaw, and I saw somewhere that Kershaw has the lowest average exit velocity of any pitcher.

Sabermetrically, Kershaw is definitely better, so you could make the argument for him. Greinke has been consistent all year, but doesn’t match up to the other’s advanced stats. And Arrieta was good in the first half but ridiculous in the second half, to the point where he was a guaranteed win.

Ultimately, I’d give it to Arrieta, because the only things Greinke had going for him over Arrieta were ERA and WHIP, and Arrieta practically caught up to him in those categories. I do think Kershaw would be the clear winner if he hadn’t had the rough start to the year that most attributed to bad luck.

And by the way, in last night’s wild card game, Arrieta got very lucky in some of the later innings, and could’ve easily given up 2-3 runs. His level of dominance requires some luck, and is therefore unsustainable.

I’m a Dodger fan, if you’re wondering.

Joseph
8 years ago

Clearly people on here are not baseball fans. They’re going for their teams pitcher, but we aren’t talking your pitcher. We’re talking numbers and those don’t lie! Get it together Cubs fans. It ain’t your guy. This guy saying it’s an La favoritism thing lol Woww clearly a Cubs fan haha. Last time I checked the Dodgers were hated more than your Cubs lol. Since the Cubs never do anything I guess this is the most attention they’ll ever get.

Jim
8 years ago

I have been a diehard Dodger fan for over 40 years and picking this years Cy Young looks tough, but shouldn’t be. Both Greinke and Kershaw have had great years, but what Arrieta has done is amazing. While Greinke has been consistent the whole year and absolutely deserves the Cy Young, what Arrieta has accomplished, especially in the second half, should win him the award.

Bridgedweller
8 years ago

Ha.

Tim
8 years ago

I’m a Kershaw fan and I feel he has had a great year. But Greinke and Arrieta have slightly better numbers, era and whip, and have been more consistent. I do not pay much attention to wins because of the luck or lack of luck involved. Flip a coin or have Co winners. I think it’s that close.

Natasha
8 years ago

Luck? I love when people use “luck” as a defense. Yes, Arrieta got into some trouble, but both he, and his teammates (it’s a team sport, people), pulled together to retire the side beautifully. Arrieta COULD have given up a couple runs, but he DIDN’T. He demonstrated great poise and composure in a hostile environment and a tense situation and forced a grounder that was fielded skillfully to get a double play. Note the word “skill”. Not about luck. I’m a Cubs fan and, of course, will root for any Cubbie, but I also think Arrieta’s unbelievable 2nd half and last night’s performance deserve him the Cy Young, whatever the stats the writer chose to rely on tell him.

Noah Baronmember
8 years ago
Reply to  Natasha

Arrieta is undoubtedly having a fantastic year. But if you don’t believe that there is luck involved you’re not being open-minded about this.

With the bases loaded against the Pirates, Arrieta gave up an absolutely smoked ground-ball, clocked at almost 110 mph.

The fact that it went right to the shortstop is not “skill”, it’s luck. That doesn’t mean that Arrieta isn’t an amazing pitcher. It just goes to show that ERA and W/L record is a poor way of evaluating a pitcher in a given season.

Tymathee
8 years ago

You can’t go wrong with any of them honestly.
As a homer and a big Kershaw fan, I want Kershaw
Arrietta’s dominance has been nothing but astounding but i can’t help but think of him as a one year wonder and he hasn’t “earned” it ya know? RA Dickey won over Kershaw 2 years ago cuz he was a one year wonder that came out of nowhere and now look at him.
Greinke is having a great year, it’s been very reliant on “luck” but he’s kept that luck going for 30 starts so it’s getting hard to deny that it’s more than just luck.

I’ll be disappointed if Jake or Zack wins over Clayton but there’s no way i can say any of them didn’t deserve it.
I wish we could just give the award to all 3 of them.

Dean
8 years ago

I too am a diehard dodger fan and would look forward to cub -dodger playoff
To settle this controversy ….but for the season stats and accomplishments
My vote is for….Arrietta no doubt. Sorry kershaw and greinke let us have the
Team trophy instead…..World Series winner !!!!

db cooper
8 years ago

Tough choice. Arrieta really had that strong second half, Grienke had that 45 inning (I think 45) scoreless streak, and Kershaw had a ton of strikeouts. All “luck” and saber metrics aside, I’d be happy with either three since it’s such a tight race. But call me crazy

FM Mood
8 years ago

This is the most non-fangraphs fangraphs comment thread I’ve ever seen.

BuzAnter
8 years ago
Reply to  FM Mood

I thought I ventured on to ESPN pastures!

eradanus
8 years ago
Reply to  FM Mood

HAHAHAHA!!! Kershaw hands down when you look at the advanced stats. Cubs fans using 1908 stats for 1908 arguments.

Colonel Obvious
8 years ago
Reply to  FM Mood

What do you want to bet a dozen of the commenters are the same disgruntled troll?

Noah Baronmember
8 years ago
Reply to  FM Mood

It’s astounding. And on the community page, no less, where you’d think only saber-people bother to venture.

Tom Au
8 years ago

This one is tough, because Kereshaw posted better numbers for the whole year, and Arrieta, for the second half.

But Kershaw is an “established” pitcher and Arrieta an “emerging” one.

So my question is, who is going to maintain the better numbers going forward into 2016 and beyond?

My money, and hence my Cy Young vote, is on Arrieta.