The Steady Improvement of Xander Bogaerts

Amidst a disappointing first half for the Boston Red Sox, one of the few bright spots has been the steady offensive improvement of Xander Bogaerts. The 22-year-old shortstop is beginning to live up to hype that has seemingly plagued the former 6th overall prospect during his first full season in Boston. Bogaerts maintains a .302/.339/.414 clip through July 6, which equates to a 2.2 WAR, second to only Brandon Crawford’s 2.9 for shortstops in the MLB.

First off, its important to point out to all who thought Bogaerts was a bust after his performance a year ago, that he is still only 22 years old. To put it into perspective, consider this: Francisco Lindor was the #3 overall prospect coming into this year. The Indians called him up from AAA on June 14th to, like Bogaerts, begin his career as an every-day shortstop at age 21. And similar to Bogaerts, Lindor is enduring his share of rookie struggles, batting .215 through his first 79 at-bats. It’s not fair to write off Lindor, or Bogaerts, as busts after their 21-year old seasons. Most players, especially those that young, need time to adjust to major-league pitching.

Bogaerts is walking about the same as a year ago, but has significantly improved his strikeout percentage, which has fallen from around 23% to 14%. His BABIP has risen almost 50 percentage points from a year ago (up to .347) which would help explain the improvements in batting average.

Another explanation for improvement has been Bogaerts new-found use of the ground and opposite field in 2015. Two-thirds of his balls in play are traveling to center and right fields this year, compared to around 40% last year. And his percentage of balls hit to the opposite field has increased from 19% to 31%. While the Monster may bait right-handed hitters into becoming pull-happy, Xander has found better success driving the ball the other way.

Bogaerts has also been putting the ball on the ground more this season. His GB% has risen 12% (to 50%) and FB% has dropped the same amount (his line-drive percentage has stayed roughly the same). Xander isn’t a burner on the base paths (only four steals) but he can put his athleticism to good use when he hits on the ground.

Xander’s improvement may even result in his first All-Star appearance. Alcides Escobar and former Red Sox, Jose Iglesias, are the two American League shortstop representatives for now. Even if Bogaerts is left off the team, his first-half play has been refreshing enough in an otherwise frustrating year for many Red Sox players. The young shortstop is taking some nice steps towards proving he is the player the Boston media, and fans alike, thought he was going to be.





2 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
evo34
8 years ago

So…someone starts hitting more groundballs (at the expense of power) and experiences a surge in BABIP. Therefore he is “steadily improving?”

Bogaerts has a BABIP of .352 this season. To give you an idea of how outlandish that is, consider that Goldschmidt and Trout are .360 and .361 last 2.5 years. Normal is .305 to .310.