The Best of Leagues, the Worst of Leagues

As with every year, there have been storylines that are unique to the 2015 baseball season. The remarkable infusion of young talent to the game. The relevance of the Cubs and Astros after years of being doormats. The disarray in Boston and Detroit. And, of interest here, the general ineptitude of the American League.

Many commentators have bemoaned how weak the American League is this season. You can get a sense of that by just perusing the standings. All data here are as of the start of play on Sunday, September 6.

• The Red Sox, Mariners, Tigers, White Sox, and A’s–all expected to be good teams this year, picked by many to win their divisions or qualify as wild cards–have the five worst records in the league.
• Two divisions have only two clubs with winning records, and there are only six teams in the entire league more than a game above .500.
• In the East, Toronto’s gotten hot, but the team had a losing record as recently as July 28. The Yankees’ two best offensive players are old, one’s hurt, and the other has the second-lowest OPS in the league in over the past 30 days. Nobody else in the division is above .500.
• The Royals lead the Central with the American League’s best record despite having the fourth worst starting pitcher ERA and FIP along with, this being the Royals, the fewest home runs and walks on offense. The second place Twins have been outscored. Again, nobody else in the division is above .500.
• The National League West is led by the Astros, a year after losing 92 games and two years after losing 111. Many of the players in their lineup have an on base percentage below .300 with the team. The Rangers are in second after losing their ace pitcher in spring training. The defending divisional champ Angels are treading water, just a game above .500.

Given that, one could argue that at least four of the best teams in baseball this year are in the National League, though one would get a counter-argument emanating along the Missouri/Kansas border. In any case, the Cardinals have the best record in the majors, the Pirates and Cubs third and fourth, the Dodgers tied for fifth, and the Mets eighth. The National League has the best teams, with the best records, making it the best league, right?

Except for one number: 89-73.

That’s roughly equal to the projected won-lost record for the Mets and Astros this year. That’s a good record. It’s good enough to win a soft division, good enough to make the playoffs in almost every year. An 89-73 team is a good ballclub.

But I didn’t list the 89-73 record because of the Mets and Astros. Rather, it has relevance for another reason: 89-73 is the record of American League teams against National League teams this year. Actually, it’s 151-123, but prorated over 162 games, it’s 89-73. The American League, on average, is the Rangers or Nationals playing against the Orioles or Red Sox: A .525 team playing a .475 team. The American League is, overall, clearly the superior league. And this shouldn’t come as a surprise; as Jeff Sullivan pointed out last year, the same occurred in 2014. And it happened in 2013. And 2012. And 2011. And every single year beginning in 2004.

How can that be? How can the top of the American League be unimpressive, the rest of the teams deeply flawed, yet the league is easily beating up on the National League?

There are two reasons. First, the National League may have the best teams, or at least most of them, but it absolutely runs the table on bad teams. The worst record in the majors this year is owned by the Phillies. They’re followed by the Braves. Then the Reds. Then the Marlins. Followed by the Rockies. The A’s are the next-worse, but then we return to the National League, with the Brewers. Six of the seven worst teams in the majors this year are in the National League. Those six teams, cumulatively, are 334-478, a .411 winning percentage, and 38-72 against the American League.

The second reason, closely related to the first, is parity. Yes, the American League doesn’t have the talented teams that the National League claims. But neither does it have the clunkers.When it comes to team performance, the National League is a stars-and-scrubs, penthouse-and-outhouse type of league. The American League is much more egalitarian. The teams with the six worst records in the American League are the A’s, Tigers, Red Sox, White Sox, Mariners, and Orioles. Those are six hugely disappointing teams, but they’re disappointing because they have talent, if underperforming talent. Those six teams, cumulatively, are 376-434, a .465 winning percentage, and 56-54 against the National League. Compare that to the six listed in the last paragraph.

Put this another way: You probably remember the term standard deviation from statistics classes. Without getting into the formulae, the standard deviation is a measure of variance. Given a normal distribution, about two-thirds of values (68.2%, to be precise) fall within one standard deviation of the mean. It’s a more precise term for “plus or minus.” Since 1998, the inaugural seasons of the Tampa Bay Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks, there have been 30 major-league teams. During that time, the average team won/lost percentage is .500 (duh). The standard deviation is .071. Over the course of a 162-game season, then, the average number of victories is 81 games (162 x .5), with a standard deviation of 11.6 games (162 x .071). If there’s a wide variation between teams in a league, its standard deviation will be higher. If there’s parity, it’ll be lower.

I calculated the standard deviations of team winning percentage for every season in each league from 1998 to 2015, giving me 36 league-seasons in total. I multiplied the result by 162 to express it in games. Again, in those 18 years, the average team wins 81 games, plus or minus 11.6. Here are five the seasons with the greatest standard deviations: