The Best Bets for Over/Under Team Win Totals

Typically, projections and conjecture about the upcoming baseball season serve the general purpose of piquing your interest. However, sometimes they are good for making money. In this instance, here are some gambles you can make based on the Atlantis Race and Sports Book. 

This article was written on February 28, 2016 and the initial lines from this Fox Sports article were published on February 12, 2016.

The team win projections referenced are some basic (keyword, “basic”) projections I made for this season. 

1. Colorado Rockies — Over 68 1/2 Wins, -110

• Projected Wins: 81

The projection for the Rockies is shockingly bullish at first glance. But, take a step back and put it in context. The Rockies gave up 844 runs last year, the highest amount in MLB. This year they are projected to surrender 757, or 87 less runs; an improvement of over a half-run per game.

This is not ridiculous considering what you can expect from their pitching staff. They will have a full season from a maturing Jon Gray and they bolstered their bullpen with Jason Motte, Chad Qualls, and Jake McGee. These highlights may not be awe-inspiring, but they don’t need to be. The 757 projected runs against is the worst projected runs against in the NL. The projection doesn’t signify the Rockies are good; they signify they are not as bad as last year.

The Rockies offense is projected to keep chugging along, with 761 runs scored, which would be the ninth-lowest runs scored for a Rockies team from 1995–2015, and only 24 runs greater than last year’s Rockies team. It’s not all that extreme.

You don’t need to buy into the projections to view this as a good bet. You just need to buy into the idea that the Rockies are better than they were last year (when they won 68 games). The Rockies are the best bet at the dawn of spring training.

2. Chicago Cubs — Over 89, -110

• Projected Wins: 100

A pessimist may ask some of the following questions of the Cubs: (1) It’s the Cubs. Will they find some way to blow it?; (2) Will Jake Arrieta be able to carry over his performance of the past season and a half?; (3) Will Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber suffer a decline in performance now the league has had an off-season to study their strengths and weaknesses?

A pessimist would probably have more questions along these lines, but a pessimist would have more of these types of questions about other teams. So, don’t be a pessimist; play the odds, particularly if you’re betting. The odds say the Cubs are the best team in the league.

You may not want to bet on the Cubs’ projected win figure of 100, but it seems foolish to not bet on 90+ wins. Teams can be ravaged by injuries (see 2015 Washington Nationals) and teams can be ravaged by bad luck, but don’t let the world of possibilities cloud the virtue of probabilities. The probability that the Cubs win over 90 games for the second year in a row is greater than the pessimistic possibilities that may (but probably aren’t) dancing through your head.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers — Over 87, -115

• Projected Wins: 95

How much can one man be vilified? Snark surrounded Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers’ offseason, beginning with the departure of Zack Greinke. It continued as the Dodgers added more starting pitchers to their pitching staff than they did former general mangers to their front office staff. But that’s okay. You know better, don’t you?

This writer is hard-pressed to think of a team so well-equipped to survive the maladies and booby traps that a major-league-baseball team may encounter in a trek through a 162-game season (well, all but Clayton Kershaw’s arm falling off). They have a cadre of infielders (Kendrick, Turner, Utley, Seager, Guerrero), outfielders (Puig, Pederson, Ethier, Crawford, Van Slyke, Thompson), and Enrique Hernandez is essentially baseball’s equivalent to the utility knife. As suggested in the first paragraph, the Dodgers’ positional depth may only blush when it encounters the depth of their own pitching staff.

If you doubt the Dodgers, you may be the kind of person who’d choose a wallet with a $100 bill over another with ten $20 bills. But, don’t fear if you did that, you can turn that $100 into $187 if you bet on the Dodgers to win more than 87 games this year.

If you’re still unsure, you should have chose the wallet with ten $20 bills. You wouldn’t need to gamble at all if you did that.

4. Washington Nationals — Over 87, -115

• Projected Wins: 94

I will not blame you if you begin to feel a greater degree of uncertainty at this point. The luster may have come off the Nationals last year, but don’t you believe they could be re-polished? It’s feasible the Mets and Nationals (and maybe the Marlins) take the battleground of the mid-80s to determine the NL East champion, but it’s more likely that the division winner will walk away with more than 90 wins, or the Nationals will surpass everyone at that level.

You may not want to bet on the health of Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, and Jayson Werth. Or, you may just want to bet. If the latter is the case, the Nationals are a good bet; not a sure bet. But what is a sure bet? The Nationals’ biggest offseason splash was Daniel Murphy, but their most effective offseason acquisitions likely went under the radar. They bolstered their bullpen with the additions of Shawn Kelley, Oliver Perez, Yusmeiro Petit, and Trevor Gott. They also have a farm system that can (1) patch holes this year (Lucas Giolito) and (2) be used to acquired talent to fill any other holes through trade.

Oh, and Dusty Baker is their manager. You can feel how you want about that, but that means Matt Williams isn’t their manager this year and there’s only one way to feel about that.

5. Kansas City Royals — Under 87, -115

• Projected Wins: 74

Lets establish two things: (1) The projected wins are low, and (2) the universe may haunt you for making this bet.

Disregard the universe for the moment. The Royals should be the favorites to win the AL Central. I don’t state that in a hypothetical way. There is no team in the AL Central that is so good that you should expect them to overcome the Royals’ Black Magic. But, for purposes of this exercise, ask the important question: Is the Royals’ Black Magic so good that it will propel them to win more than 87 games? I think not.

Much like the Nationals, I wouldn’t take my last $115 and make this bet, but if you want to bet on, say, five over/under win totals for a MLB team, I would make this your fifth bet. But realize, you’re not making a bet on a the performance of a baseball team; you’re making a bet on the rhythms of the universe.

If you’re hesitant to bet on the universe, here are some other reasonable (but not as reliable) choices:

6. Boston Red Sox — Over 85 1/2 Wins, -105

• Projected Wins: 89 

7. Toronto Blue Jays — Under 87 Wins, -110

• Projected Wins: 82

8. Texas Rangers — Under 86 Wins, -110

• Projected Wins: 81

9. Detroit Tigers — Under 85 Wins, -115

• Projected Wins: 79

10. Baltimore Orioles — Under 80 1/2 Wins, -110

• Projected Wins: 75