There are few things I enjoy in baseball more than the pitcher vs. hitter dynamic. Everyone likes to see highlight plays like a great catch or a mammoth home run, but those plays are few and far between. I believe that the tension created in a drawn-out plate appearance is where baseball is most enjoyable. Every pitch is meaningful, and the strategy of the game is on full display. The pitcher is trying to decide the best way to get the hitter to produce an out and the hitter is doing everything he can to thwart the pitcher.

This dynamic of baseball has always fascinated me. I was curious how pitchers and catchers decided which pitch was correct to throw in a situation. There are plenty of tools available to them that were not readily available when I was a child, like heat maps made from pitch-tracking data, but they show results without the context of what previous pitches were thrown in the plate appearance. Heat maps provide useful data, but the real art of pitching is being able to set up a hitter to take advantage of their weaknesses. If a pitcher throws the same pitch in the same location every time, eventually the hitter is going to catch on and change his strategy accordingly. So which sequence of pitches is the most effective at retiring hitters? This is the question I attempted to answer with this article. Read the rest of this entry »

A few summers ago, Walker Buehler and the Los Angeles Dodgers came to Baltimore at the very end of the season. That night my buddy and I couldn’t figure out why the Dodgers, and the overwhelming mass of their fans in attendance, were so pumped about winning a single game in Baltimore. Once we saw staffers in ties and headsets running out with the “Division Champions” t-shirts, we realized what was going on.

Needless to say, Buehler was excellent, going 7 innings with 11 Ks and — because it was the 2019 Orioles — gave up no runs on four hits. During the game, while surrounded by very excited Dodgers fans, I mentioned that Buehler’s delivery seemed so efficient that his motion looked exactly the same every time he threw the ball. If you’ve ever worked on physical mechanics of any kind, be it baseball swings, golf swings, freestyle swim stroke, running stride, or maybe just proper form sitting at a desk to avoid that “work from home/pandemic backache,” you know how hard it can be to exactly replicate a motion over and over again. Buehler amazed us in his ability to do just that. We know that repetition in delivery mechanics leads to success in various forms, so with that in mind, the point of this analysis is to look at release point consistency and how that correlates with resulting pitching metrics. Read the rest of this entry »

Andrew Miller has an undeniably nasty slider. As a Red Sox fan, I remember it far too well from the 2016 postseason. Big Papi’s farewell tour didn’t seem all that fair when you consider the way the Red Sox ran into the buzz-saw that was Miller and the Cleveland Indians. Sure, I’m grateful for Miller helping the 2013 version of the Red Sox win a third world title since 2004, but come on Andrew, you had to ruin Papi’s goodbye?

With Miller’s recent signing with the St. Louis Cardinals, I found myself exploring his FanGraphs page. I stumbled upon this article, Andrew Miller on the Evolution of his Slider, and I instantly began to wonder if pitchers had similar experiences developing their sliders in the 2018 season. The first step in this analysis was to evaluate the evolution of Miller’s slider.

What jumps off the page is the change in velocity. Miller saw a 4.6 mph increase in his slider from 2011 to 2012, then another 3 mph added from 2012 to 2013. This in large part had to do with Miller moving from a starting role to a relief role during his time with the Red Sox. Given that information, however, an increase in velocity that drastic not only shows a pitcher’s willingness to adapt, but also a pitcher’s ability to adapt. By observing Miller’s slider splits, we see that ability to adapt almost immediately.

Read the rest of this entry »

Over the past several years, we have watched a number of hitters in the minors display good contact skills with average or below-average power be labeled with 45s and 50s only to burst onto the scene with an explosion of power they never showed any hint of previous. Mookie Betts might be the best example, along with guys like Jose Ramirez, who show up to the big leagues and announce themselves by mashing.  Naturally, prospect hounds, analysts, and the baseball community investigated how these guys went so overlooked (unless you were Carson Cistulli). It was surmised that contact quality mixed with good exit velocity and appropriate launch angles allowed hitters to maximize their output even without Aaron Judge levels of thump.

This investigation, however, is not a hunt for the next minor leaguer who will smash his way onto the scene, but rather a search for the pitchers who will try to stop them. With modern conditioning and institutions (read: Driveline) making it more possible than ever to gain velocity, one no longer must be naturally gifted a 6-foot-5 frame with easy 95 to be considered a prospect. Furthermore, with openers, bulk guys, firemen, and more, traditional pitching roles are going by the wayside.

This analysis attempts to seek out pitchers who possess above-average command or secondary offerings but lack the prototypical velocity grades we are seeing in today’s game. Identifying these pitchers would make them intriguing candidates for these high-intensity velocity training plans. While you may not find the next Luis Severino, you could uncover an explosive fireman reliever, matchup guy, or high-octane backend starter that pushes you closer to October glory.

The process for this analysis involved using the 2018 updated prospects list from THE BOARD, developed by Kiley McDaniel, Eric Longenhagen, and Sean Dolinar at this very site. I started by sorting for prospects who either currently have > 55 command or project for the same. This brought the sample to 85 pitchers. Next, I sorted out pitchers who have a present FB grade of > 55. Our sample now sits at 38 pitchers who have or project to have above-average command and an average-to-below-average fastball. Before diving into the next set of data, I wanted to provide some broader notes about this group. Notable pitchers with top 100–130 considerations on this list include Atlanta’s Kolby Allard and Joey Wentz, Miami’s Braxton Garrett, and the Angels’ Griffin Canning. There are 16 lefties and 22 righties. The Phillies lead the way with five of these guys, the Cubs and Rockies are tied with three each, and then the rest of the league has one or two on this list. Additionally, the average age of this group is 22.8 years old.

Now that we have our assorted pool, it is time to sort through this group’s off-speed arsenal. This part of the analysis was more subjective. I have attempted to group pitchers with similar traits that could fill a variety of roles. What follows is three tables of guys who could benefit most from additional velocity.

This first group features two right-handers with a current 60-grade pitch that projects for 70. Of the 38, these two are the lone members who feature a current 60 pitch. Of the two, Morgan has the higher upside based on his slider. Both have fastballs that sit around 90 mph, but additional velo training could push the value of these guys up a tier. Guys from this tier could be featured as openers or one-time-through-the-order relievers that rely on one elite pitch. The selling point of this group is that they have that elite pitch to lean on even without elite velocity.

The next group features players with multiple 55-or-better future offerings, led by Padres righty Pedro Avila, who is rocking two future 60-grade pitches. Previously mentioned notables Garrett and Wentz also fall into this category. This group represents backend starter types who are useful during the season but less useful during the postseason. Additional velo here could push these guys into strong No. 3 starters or high-leverage multi-inning guys.

The last group of guys profile as backend starter types who live on off-speed stuff and have no margin for error with their fastballs. I identified these players by adding their FV non-fastball pitch grades together, noted as ARS in table (ARS = FCH+FSL+FCB). These guys walk the command and off-speed tightrope to end up as backend starters in the best case, or just middle-relief guys or up-and-down starters. Occasionally these guys become Kyle Hendricks, Tanner Roark, or Doug Fister, but these are exceptions and not the rule. Almost everyone in this group is older for a prospect, so the ceiling is limited, however, additional velo for these guys could turn them into more dynamic multi-inning relivers, bulk guys, or high-end No. 4-5 starters.

I should also note that all these guys fall into different buckets of age, level, and body types. Arguably, the most critical component of a prospect on this list would be targeting high-makeup guys who would be willing to experiment and acknowledge that they could use more gas to ascend to the next level. Some of these pitchers may be maxed out physically or unwilling to change what already seems to work. This analysis also looks past statistical performance, level, and even present pitch value a bit. What this analysis does do is identify guys who could rapidly improve with additional velocity due to advanced command and secondary. The margin for error is incredibly slim for this type of pitcher, but through intense training and velocity gains, pitcher X throwing 90-92 bumping to 94-96 with already above-average command and secondaries would vault them into a new tier of player. For teams looking to squeeze every ounce of value out of their farm system, this could be another way to target undervalued talent that has yet to be unlocked and developed.

The White Sox’ rotation this year can charitably be described as “rocky”. They began the year projected to have the worst rotation in the majors by WAR and thus far they’ve ranked 28th, between the Jeter-decimated Marlins and the aging Rangers. That’s not terribly surprising considering they’ve given out the most walks by far at 4.61 BB/9; besides them, only the Cubs’ rotation is over 4 at 4.21. The White Sox’ rotation also has the lowest strikeout rate in the majors this year at 6.20 K/9. The only thing preventing them from having the worst FIP of any team’s starters is middle-of-pack home run prevention, but their home field is a launching pad come summer.

As I stated before, they weren’t expected to have a good roster of starters, but being a rebuilding club filled with young and therefore volatile players, there was at least theoretically the chance that they made the jump to competence and beyond earlier than expected and surprise people like the Braves have this year. That obviously has not happened, but back in February, when everything is possible, Rian Watt took a look at the surprisingly large error bars in the projections for Chicago’s starters. The backstories of their projected starters agreed with what those large error bars said about a wide range of outcomes.

Lucas Giolito, a former No. 1 global prospect traded to the Sox last year from the Nationals, looked very sharp in spring training, having apparently rediscovered the massive 12-6 curve and some of the fastball velocity that had made him such a vaunted prospect and pairing it with newly found command and an improving, fading changeup. Reynaldo Lopez, fellow right-hander and former top-100 prospect who came over from the Nationals, had disappointing strikeout numbers despite big stuff, between a fastball that averaged 95 MPH, above-average curve and average slider and change– perhaps an improvement in sequencing or location would tap into the strikeouts he clearly had the talent to produce. Carson Fulmer, former No. 7; overall draft pick, has a lively arsenal in which everything moves in unpredictable ways that hitters dislike, albeit unpredictable to him too; perhaps he could make a mechanical adjustment and find the control and therefore success he had in college. Carlos Rodon, former No. 3 overall pick, was out with minor shoulder surgery (bursitis) until June but can flash complete dominance with his overpowering fastball/slider combo from the left side. Everyone knows about the world-class talent of Michael Kopech, who is currently stuck vaporizing poor saps in Triple-A (12.13 K/9!) until he limits his walks to acceptable levels. Bringing up the rear were Miguel Gonzalez, Hector Santiago, and James Shields, three veterans for whom the reasonable hopes were “eat innings better than cannon fodder”.

This article is not about any of the eight pitchers above, or their struggles with control (Giolito, Fulmer), relative successes (Shields), or weirdness (Lopez, who is having some success despite still not getting many strikeouts). Instead, it’s… Dylan Covey?

Yes, the Dylan Covey who ran both an ERA and FIP over seven last year in seventy innings as a rookie, good for -1.1 WAR. Pitching like, well, cannon fodder is not exactly an auspicious start to one’s major league career. Brief background of Covey: He was considered an elite high school arm, the riskiest category of draft picks, thought of high enough to be selected fourteenth overall in 2010 by Milwaukee– one pick after the White Sox selected a certain stick-figure lefty at a little-known Florida college whom Covey out-dueled earlier this June. During his pre-signing medicals, though, Covey was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes, and he decided not to sign in order to learn how to deal with the disease before the stresses of pro ball. He chose to attend San Diego State and three years later was selected in the fourth round by Oakland.

After another three years of middling results hampered by injuries, Oakland left him off the 40-man roster despite an encouraging AFL and Chicago pounced in the Rule V draft. It was a bit of an unusual choice in that Covey was quite raw, almost akin to the Padres’ Rule V hijacking of prospects straight from A-ball, because Covey had thrown all of six starts at his highest level (Double-A). After hearing that, it probably makes a lot more sense why A) he got rocked the way he did last year and B) there was and is still hope for him. Although he was 25, the rawness showed, but the White Sox were entirely alright with absorbing the losses, as they would only help them pick higher in the 2018 Draft anyways (Nick Madrigal says hello).

Ironically, when he was drafted fourteenth overall in 2010, he was considered as safe as any high school arm could possibly be, on the basis of a low to mid-nineties sinker, above-average curve, ideal workhorse frame (currently listed at 6-2/195), and remarkably clean mechanics for his age. Ground balls, control, good health, and a reasonable number of strikeouts sounds like the perfect profile of a high-floor starter prospect. Of course, it didn’t work out that way in 2010, nor did he really come around while with Oakland. Thus, one might reasonably conclude, this article is being written because he appears to be finally delivering on his talent in his second year with the White Sox.

And so he has. Of course, the disclaimer of “small-sample size” applies here, as Covey has seven starts, and 35.1 innings total in those starts this year, but still, those 35.1 innings have been a complete reversal from his performance in 2017. He’s gotten a shot only because two rotation spots needed filling before Kopech was ready (i.e. past his Super Two deadline). First, Gonzalez went down with a shoulder injury in mid-April; that spot was filled by Santiago sliding from the bullpen into the rotation as he was signed to do. By mid-May, Fulmer’s wildness became too much to bear, and he was sent down to Triple-A to work on that, and Covey was called up to Chicago to get his second shot in the bigs. He’s taken that chance and run with it.

Thus far this year, Covey is the proud owner of a 2.29 ERA, 2.17 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, and 3.48 SIERA, good for a 1.3 fWAR (!) that currently leads all White Sox pitchers. No, I don’t think Covey is suddenly the third-best pitcher in baseball, and yes, that SIERA is a over a run higher than the FIP, and that’s because Covey has yet to give up a home run. That SIERA is still really good, though: among starters this year with at least 30 IP, the highest bar Covey clears, that would be good for 29th, slotting between Blake Snell and Alex Wood. Other pitcher evaluation metrics mostly agree: Baseball Savant’s xwOBA-against judges him at .293, 21st-best among starters. Baseball Prospectus’ DRA, how ever, does not like what he’s done, as his DRA this year is 5.38. There have been 4 unearned runs against him this year, so BBRef’s RA/9 dings him for that but still evaluates him well at 3.31 (Note: two of those unearned runs scored as inherited runners off a reliever). I cannot say why DRA hates him, but when a black-box statistic is in complete disagreement with literally every other ERA estimator, I have to ignore it.

Of course, the instinct of any saber-savvy fan is dismiss this as a fluke, small sample, etc. Anything can happen in small samples– once upon a time, Philip Humber threw a perfect game! That’s what I said, so when I trawled through Covey’s peripherals just to make sure this was a fluke, I kept expecting to find something or another that screamed regression. If there is a statistical red flag for harsh regression beyond his steadfast refusal to give up a home run, it remains as elusive to me as the average Bigfoot. His K% is a bit above average at 22.2% (starters’ average this year is 21.7%), his walk rate is a little better than average at 7.4% (avg is 8.2%), for a just above average K-BB% of 14.8% (avg of 13.6%). His LOB% is a bit low at 71.1% (avg 73.0%), and his BABIP-against is maybe a touch unlucky at .333 (avg .288). His WHIP is a smidge worse than average at 1.30 (avg 1.28). There is, in sum, absolutely nothing out of the ordinary there; by those measures he looks like a league average or slightly above starter. Which isn’t bad, as it suggests that his floor is that of a perfectly cromulent major-league starter, which is already a great outcome for a Rule V pick and vast improvement over last year.

Where Covey starts getting real interesting is when you start looking at the ways in which he might be suppressing home runs. I already told you that Covey’s primary pitch as a high schooler was a heavy sinker, and he’s gone back to his roots with it this year. In 2017, he threw fastballs about 60% of the time, splitting usage about evenly between his sinker and a four-seam. This year, he’s throwing even more fastballs, up to 68.3%, but he’s ditched the four-seam almost entirely; those are nearly exclusively sinkers he’s thrown. The point of a sinker is to get ground balls, and boy oh boy has his sinker done so.

Put simply, Covey’s been a ground ball machine. Among all starters with at least 30 IP this year, he’s tops in ground ball rate at 61.0%. The sinker has done most of that work; when batters put it in play, they beat it into the ground 68.1% of the time, 8th among starters. As one would expect, he’s also not allowed many fly balls; his FB% is a tiny 23.5%, seventh-lowest among his peers. Also unsurprisingly, he’s got the fourth-highest GB/FB, at 2.56, of starters. If his FIP is low because he’s not allowed a home run, well, it’s at least in part because it’s rather difficult to get a home run out of a grounder. When examined more closely, the metrics on his sinker back up its excellent results.

First of all, he’s added some velocity to it. This year his sinker is averaging 94.4 MPH, compared to last year’s 92.9 MPH. The addition of 1.5 to 2 MPH this year versus last is found in all his other pitches, too. Throwing harder across the board: always a good sign! It’s more than just respectably hard. Although Statcast classifies it as a 2-seamer, the pitch has the 29th-lowest average spin rate among either sinkers or 2-seamers this year.

While that and the velocity of the pitch (26th-fastest in the same mix of starters’ 2-seams & sinkers) are both good-not-great numbers, the combination of the two is actually pretty unusual– fastball velocity and spin rate usually have a positive correlation. Less spin is good in this case; the spin is mostly backspin, and the less backspin on a sinker, the more it sinks and (probably) the better it is. Of the 25 starters that throw their 2-seamers/sinkers harder than Covey does, only two– Erick Fedde and Fernando Romero, both rookies with small sample sizes themselves, also have lower spin rates. Stephen Strasburg and Sal Romano also throw harder and barely missed the spin rate cutoff. For comparison, the 2018 preview on Fedde’s FG page describes his sinker as “potentially premium”, Romano and Romero both have their fastballs graded by the FG prospect experts as 70s (plus-plus), and Strasburg rarely throws his 2-seamer.

In short, his sinker is elite for the sum of its parts. It’s generated an exactly league-average 6.8% whiff rate, which doesn’t sound special, but when it’s put in play, hitters can’t help but beat it into the ground. Its grounder/ball in play rate is an incredible 68.1%, 4th among starters and 10th among all pitchers this year. As would be expected, hitters haven’t done too well against it, with a xwOBA against of 0.324, checking in at 13th of all starters’ sinkers/2-seamers.

The three guys ahead of him on the starter list– Trevor Cahill, J.A. Happ, and Marcus Stroman— are interesting for comps, too. None strike out a ton of guys– all have career K/9s under eight– and none walk too many either, like Covey. Unsurprisingly, Stroman and Cahill, sinker/slider righties like Covey, are No. 2 and  No. 3 in starter GB% after Covey. Cahill’s having his best year yet in the A’s rotation, having upped his strikeouts to almost 9 K/9, cut his walks to 2 BB/9, and limiting home runs enough that ERA & ERA estimators are all around 3. Stroman, though he’s been hurt and not pitched well this year, has a track record of four years of being a solid No. 2 starter, especially according to SIERA.

Covey’s secondary pitches– slider (15.6% usage), curve (8.2%) and split-finger changeup (8.7%)– are all about average or better. The slider’s whiff rate is 13.5%, not spectacular but solidly above the league-average slider whiff of 9.0%. It’s not been murdered when it gets hit, either; Statcast’s xwOBA against the pitch is a pitiful .209, good for 16th among starters’ sliders. The change is an effective swing-and-miss pitch too, also with an above-average whiff rate at 15.6%. Hitters haven’t hit the change well either, with a xwOBA against of just .220, 16th among starters’ changeups. The curve hasn’t generated many swings-and-misses (just 2 out of 44 thrown, 4.5%) but hasn’t killed him at an xwOBA of .273, about middle of the pack for starters.

Baseball Savant sure doesn’t think that Covey’s just been extremely lucky in home-run suppression, but just to be sure, I went to go see what xStats.org thought of him. It thinks he should have given up 1.5 homers so far. Ignoring for a moment the fact that one cannot in fact hit half a home run, although a ground rule double seems close to it, that works out to a deserved rate of 0.382 HR/9. Which, in case you’re wondering, would still be good for fourth-lowest HR/9 of starters— Covey of course currently has the lowest of all at 0. Not perfect, then, but damn close to it. The other names in the top 10 lowest HR/9 are unsurprisingly for the most part really good to great pitchers: Arrieta, Nola, Severino, Bauer, Chatwood (???), deGrom, Buehler, Cueto, and Carlos Martinez, in ascending (towards lowest) order.

So that’s Dylan Covey in 2018: a pitcher with an excellent bread-and-butter sinker, two very good secondaries, and a passable fourth pitch. He’s not walking many, striking out close to a batter per inning, getting ground balls like they’re going out of fashion, and bucking the home run trend. I’m particularly reminded of Stroman in overall profile, but Covey has the advantages of size, a bit of youth, a home field with dirt instead of turf (grounders come off turf faster, meaning more hits), and a considerably younger and rangier infield behind him. He’s also got Don Cooper and Herm Schnieder on his coaching staff, which makes it less likely that he’ll be derailed by either mechanical or health issues. I for one didn’t see this coming, but the White Sox’ patience has already been rewarded with an unexpected breakout by Matt Davidson, so why couldn’t they have found another post-prospect gem? It’s at least interesting to note that Dallas Keuchel and Jake Arrieta, probably the best examples of guys who became great pitchers out of more or less nowhere after given time to reinvent themselves on rebuilding squads, are both in the top 20 in ground ball rate for starters– the category, of course, wherein Covey currently reigns supreme. I don’t really know what more to say. Small sample size notwithstanding, how about Dylan Covey, No. 2 starter?

Notes on process: with a small sample size of just seven starts at time of writing, the minimum cutoffs I employed to compare Covey to other pitchers were usually the minimum that he himself cleared– 30 IP with his 35.1 IP, 10 PA for his xwOBA against his curveball that has 13 PAs, etc. As he gets more starts, the exact numbers and rankings will of course change; the rankings are there not to be exact but rather to give some context for the raw numbers, most of which are obscure enough that the average reader likely cannot evaluate how “good” it is. Everyone knows a 2.29 ERA & 2.16 FIP are great, but I doubt many readers can instantly discern how good, say, a xwOBA of .220 against a certain pitcher’s changeup is. I also made the decision to evaluate almost exclusively against other starters’ 2018 years, as the baseball is again different this year and relievers are increasingly a different, turbo-powered breed of pitcher that cannot fairly be compared to starters.

How many teams are looking for a cheap starting pitcher to be a veteran presence for a young rotation? Looking for an upgrade over what they currently have for starting pitching? Or just need a warm body to fill the hole left by Joe Ross with someone not named Edwin Jackson? As far as I can tell, 10 teams are looking for a 3/4 starter such as Merrill Kelly, especially considering his stats that he has accumulated in this season (maybe he’ll get one more start to add to his excellent season so far) have been particularly impressive. All this when the Rays thought that Merrill Kelly was just a “AAA starter” who could be a bullpen guy in the big leagues.

Merrill Kelly in the minor leagues was a solid minor leaguer who would become a swingman with the Durham Bulls. In his age-25 season, he went 9-4 in 114 IP with a 2.76 ERA, a 3.74 FIP, and a 3.57 xFIP. Which looked good with his 8.53 K/9 and 2.92 BB/9, a .298 BABIP, and a 47.9% ground-ball rate as well. Perhaps he could a solid swingman/fifth starter in the big leagues. The Rays apparently thought otherwise and said either he’d be a bullpen pitcher for the MLB team or a starter in AAA. Merrill Kelly thought otherwise and went to South Korea to play for the SK Wyverns.

Merrill Kelly in South Korea was all right in his first season, with an 11-10 record in 30 games (29 starts), 181 IP, and an ERA of 4.13. With peripheral rates that weren’t as good (6.91 K/9 and 2.69 BB/9). His next season was similar, with a 9-8 record in 31 games, but a great 200 1/3 IP with similar rate stats: 3.68 ERA, 6.83 K/9, and 2.70 BB/9. This year has been very different for him, with a 15-7 record in 29 games and 185 IP with a 3.65 ERA; his rate stats are much more improved, at 8.90 K/9 and 2.14 BB/9.

What is he doing differently to get these improved stats? Why is his ERA as high as it is, despite getting more strikeouts and walking fewer batters? He is allowing more pesky little hits: that is, his defense is not getting as many outs made as it should (1.08 hits per inning this year, vs 1.03 hits per inning in 2015-2016 combined). He has also allowed one more homer and two more doubles than last year, in 15 1/3 fewer IP.

His repertoire:

-4 Seam Fastball – 92-94 MPH (back in 2015, he was throwing 88-91 MPH)

-2 Seam Fastball – couple of miles slower and has slight sink, and runs in an opposite direction. He mixes this pitch well with his fastball

-Cutter – He started to throw this pitch more once he got to Korea and has mixed it well with his other fastballs and change

-Slider – Has a good slider that can break sharply when he’s pitching well. About 83-87 MPH

-Curveball – Decent enough curve but probably not his best pitch. Up 78-80 MPH

-Circle Changeup – Good sinking and running movement. He throws it about 85 MPH. One of his top pitches

What has he improved? Velocity on his pitches, sharper movement to his fastballs and changeup, getting better with the cutter, and improving his control. (This quoted from this article on Reddit: Merrill Kelly scouting report and info, which I think explains his improvements, but I disagree with his assessment of Merrill Kelly’s talent.) Given the talent level of the average hitter in the KBO is around AAA level, he should be able to perform as around a low-3/high-4 starter, as I’d say he is better than the average starter. A funny thing of note is that the Rays have another version of Merrill Kelly named Ryan Yarbrough, who has pitched better than Kelly did at a similar age; hopefully they’ll give him a chance to prove the Rays wrong for letting Merrill Kelly go.

Since he is on the right side of 30 and will pitch the 2018 season at age 29, I’d offer him a three-year deal worth $6 million per year with incentives that could boost the value of the deal to around $24 million over three years, with an option for a fourth season at $7 million (buyout of $2 million) with incentives to boost the option value to $10 million. This is due to his risk, and likely lower than what Phil Hughes was offered after the 2013 season from the Twins.

Who are the 10 teams that could use Merrill Kelly as a starting pitcher? The answers might be more surprising at first glance than other answers. The best choice would be the Miami Marlins for the same reasons listed, but it could become a wild-card contender taking a chance for Kelly to make more money in a playoff cut. The second-best choice is one that is pretty questionable, depending on whether the Nationals are willing to take a risk on a player from the KBO and whether they want someone better than him. But he’d be great for them in place of Joe Ross, and would be an upgrade over their current options; plus he would be cheap enough to fit in their payroll. One issue is that the Nationals have a hitter-friendly park, but not having to face the Nationals would mitigate some of those concerns. The San Diego Padres would be the third-best choice due to the non-DH league, an extremely pitcher-friendly park according to MLB park factors, and multiple available rotation spots, but they are in a tough NL West and aren’t likely to be a playoff team.

The next one is questionable but they would certainly be able to make room for him — the Oakland A’s have always been unconventional, and the park is usually known for being pitcher-friendly. The Twins would be similar to the A’s in those respects and are in fact a playoff threat (I didn’t expect to be saying this about the Twins this year at all). The Royals are practically in a tie with the Twins and A’s due to a pitcher-friendly park, although their team is going to be worse due to many key players leaving (Cain, Hosmer, and Moustakas).

Despite the Rangers having a definite hole in the rotation (who would let Nick Martinez or A.J. Griffin start in an extreme hitter-friendly park?), they are the seventh-best option due to that park, the DH league, and just not having a great team in general. The White Sox are an even more extreme version of the Rangers, and are extremely bad as well; I doubt he’d want to play for such a poor team. Same with the Reds, except there is no DH, but the Reds might want to give younger options a try first. The Orioles have almost all the bad factors: A league with a DH, a hitter-friendly park, a tough division, a bad defensive team, and generally bad development staff that has done more harm than good for its pitchers.

I would love to see one of the top six teams sign Kelly to a contract, since those would be best for him getting another contract after the first one expires. Can’t wait for him to get his shot in the big leagues, to prove his previous doubters wrong, and to have a long and successful career in the MLB.

All stats are owned by their respective owners (ESPN, FanGraphs, KBO, Reddit), I own none of the stats used. All stats are as of 9-23-2017.

Any team need a reliever who can pitch multiple-inning stints if you need? I think lots of teams would jump at the chance to acquire such a reliever considering Madison Bumgarner’s legendary five-inning relief appearance in Game 7 of the 2014 World Series. Andrew Miller became a dangerous bullpen weapon in the 2016 postseason with the Indians, which brought them within a game of winning the World Series in three consecutive games. And there’s some guy on the Astros called Chris Devenski, who could also spot start if you need a starter desperately. The Blue Jays acquired Tom Koehler from the Marlins, who I admittedly have some interest in as a starter or multi-inning reliever. Maybe you want someone like Raisel Iglesias or Michael Lorenzen.

Currently, most relievers are used in one-inning stints; some are even used against lefties or righties only. Christian Bethancourt, Chris Gimenez, and Jordan Schafer have been two-way players: a hitter and a reliever to give more bench depth and help keep Rule 5 draft picks. Some top prospects have been billed as two-way players such as Brandon McKay, Hunter Greene and most notably Shohei Otani, who has been fantastic in Japan.

The reliever who should be receiving more attention as a multiple-inning reliever is Craig Stammen, who used to be a part of the Nationals as a starter and was then converted into a reliever when he was called up from AAA in 2011. Stammen was doing pretty well from 2012-2014 as a setup reliever, but then he missed most of 2015 and didn’t make it back to the big leagues until this season. As a result of him previously having been a starter for much longer, he has more stamina than an average reliever, and can be used in multiple-inning relief stints, providing more bench depth for a team like the effect of having a two-way player (even if they aren’t very good).

This year, he has been getting back to what he was doing before in terms of his ERA, strikeout and walk rates, and innings per appearance. His home-runs, however, have gone up quite a bit despite his 52.2% ground-ball rate. This is due to an unsustainable 19.4% HR/FB ratio(!), which has overly inflated his FIP to 4.34, with a much more appealing 3.75 xFIP and a 3.60 SIERA, which suggest a solid middle relief/ setup type of reliever that he has been performing like. This and his ability to pitch multiple-inning stints create a higher value than his $900,000 contract. He has four pitches with positive values according to Pitch Info this year. Despite minute velocity drops for his pitches from his peak years of 2012-2014, he is still very effective with his pitches, with only one registering a slight negative according to Pitch Info.

Admittedly, his BABIP is a bit lower than it should be at .254, but it shouldn’t regress too badly (somewhere around .280 since he does generate quite a few ground balls). He is only getting about 6.7% pop-ups, which is not very good, compared to his peak seasons. Batters are getting more hard contact this year compared to the rest of his career (30.1% this year compared to 28.5% for his career). And his strand rate is at 85.7% this year, compared to just a 71.9% career mark. Additionally, he has allowed a .329 wOBA against lefties this year vs a .256 wOBA vs righties.

Overall, Stammen has been lucky and unlucky this year. Ultimately, he is a solid reliever who should be able to do quite well in almost any park except Coors Field or any extreme hitters park. He should receive a two-year deal worth around $4-5 million per year for how well he can pitch as a solid multiple-inning reliever, and how he can help increase bench depth for a team that wants to keep a Rule 5 talent, an extra bench player, a normal reliever, or maybe a specialized reliever such as a LOOGY (looking at you, Randy Choate, Brian Shouse, and so many more who have made careers out of being LOOGYs). The former two are much more likely than the latter two — particularly a LOOGY, as most aren’t as useful to teams anymore.

All stats and links are owned by FanGraphs, except for the link to Shohei Otani’s player page, which is owned by the NPB.

I went over the starters version of dScore here, so I’m not going to re-visit that here. I’ll just jump right in with the list!

Risers/Fallers

Danny Salazar (+16) – dScore never gave up on him, despite him being absolute trash early on this year. He came back and dominated, launching him up the ranks even farther in the process. Current status: injured. Again.

Sonny Gray (newly ranked) – If there were any doubts about the Gray the Yankees dealt for, he’s actually surpassed his dScore from his fantastic 2015 season. He’s legit (again).

Alex Wood (-8) – Looks like the shoulder issues took a bit of a toll on his stuff, but dScore certainly isn’t out on him.

Dallas Keuchel (-8) – Keuchel’s stuff isn’t the issue. He’s still a buy for me.

Lance McCullers (-11) – Poor Astros. Maybe not too poor though; their aces have gotten hammered but haven’t fallen far at all. McCullers is going to bounce back.

The Studs

Some light flip-flopping at the top, with Kluber taking over at #1 from Scherzer. The Klubot’s been SO unconscious. Everyone else is pretty much the usual suspects.

The Young Breakouts (re-visited)

Zack Godley (11) – He’s keeping on keeping on. He barely moved since last month’s update, and I’m all-in on him being a stud going forward.

Luis Castillo (9) – He’s certainly done nothing to minimize the hype. In fact, he’s added a purely disgusting sinker to his arsenal and it’s raising the value of everything he throws. Also, from a quick glance at the Pitchf/x leaderboards, two things stand out to me. He seems to have two pitches that line up pretty closely to two top-end pitches: his four-seamer has a near clone in Luis Severino’s, and his changeup is incredibly similar to Danny Salazar’s. That’s a nasty combo.

James Paxton (15) 

The Test Case

Buck Farmer (20) – Okay, so to be honest when he showed up on this list, I absolutely thought it was a total whiff. By ERA he’s been a waste, but he’s really living on truly elite in-zone contact management, swinging strikes, K/BB, and hard-hit minimization. His pitch profile is middling (not bad, but not great either), so I really don’t think he’s going to stay this high much longer. He’s certainly doing enough to earn this spot right now, and I’d expect him to not run a 6+ ERA for much longer.

The Loaded Teams

Yankees – Luis Severino (12), Sonny Gray (17), Masahiro Tanaka (25) / Some teams have guys higher up, but the Yankees are loaded up and down.

Astros – Dallas Keuchel (14), Lance McCullers (19), Brad Peacock (18), Charlie Morton (23) / Similar to the Yankees. Morton and Peacock are having simply phenomenal years.

The Dropouts

Rich Hill (39)

Trevor Cahill (35)

Marcus Stroman (28)

Poor Rich Hill. Lost his perfect game, then lost the game, then lost his spot in the top 25. Cahill’s regressed to #DumpsterFireTrevor since his trade to the Royals. Stroman really didn’t fall that far…and his slider is still a work of art.

The Just Missed

Jordan Montgomery (26) – Too bad the Yankees couldn’t send down Sabathia instead. This kid is good.

Aaron Nola (27) – #Ace

Carlos Martinez (29) – Martinez simply teases ace upside, but frankly I think you can pretty much lump him and Chris Archer (30) in the same group — high strikeouts, too many baserunners and sub-ace starts to move into the top tier.

Dinelson Lamet (32) – He’s absolutely got the stuff. He could stand to work on his batted-ball control though.

Jimmy Nelson (34) – dScore buys his changes. He finished at #148 last year. I’ll call him a #2/3 going forward.

Notes from Farther Down

Jose Berrios is all the way down to 47. His last month cost him 19 spots, but frankly it could be much worse: Sean Manaea lost 39 spots, down to 87. Manaea really looks lost out there. I don’t want to point at the shoulder injury he had earlier this year since his performance really didn’t drop off after that…but I’m wondering if he’s suffering from some fatigue that’s not helped by that. He’s pretty much stopped throwing his toxic backfoot slider to righties, and that’s cost him his strikeouts. Michael Wacha is another Gray-like Phoenix: he’s up to 52 on the list, once again outperforming his 2015 year. I’m cautiously buying him as a #3 with upside. And finally, buzz round: Mike Clevinger (33), Alex Meyer (36), Robbie Ray (38), Rafael Montero (41), and Jacob Faria (43) are already ranked quite highly, and outside of Montero and maybe Meyer I could see all of them bumping up even higher. Clevinger’s really only consistency away from being a legitimate stud.

My next update will be the end-of-season update, so I think I’m going to do a larger ranking than just the top 25; maybe all the way down to 100. Enjoy the last month-plus!

In the 2014 offseason, many free agents changed teams, some even changed leagues. Hiroki Kuroda went back to Japan to pitch for his hometown team, the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, while the Yankees got an upgrade (when healthy) in Masahiro Tanaka on a seven-year, $155-million deal (with a $20-million posting fee that they spent to talk to him), which he can opt out of after this season.

There was a second pitcher who was almost as good as Tanaka, who had worse stuff but excellent command. He also had some injury concerns after his 2011 injury where he missed a few starts, and in 2012 where only pitched nine starts, albeit with 63 1/3 IP in those starts though. Heading into the 2014 offseason, he had two excellent seasons, with ERAs of around 2 in 2013 and 2014, pitching 223 1/3 IP, with 200 strikeouts and 58 walks allowed, then 191 IP with 199 K and only 42 BB respectively in those seasons. He had a 1.98 ERA in those 191 innings in 2014, and a 2.01 ERA in 2013, generating interest from big-league teams and making an appearance in Bradley Woodrum’s article as a pitcher of note that might come over. He ultimately re-signed with the Orix Buffaloes on a four-year deal.

The injury bug bit him again in 2015 as he pitched in 16 starts, throwing 93 IP, and he had a lower strikeout rate than he had in 2013 and 2014 (7.6 K/9) with an ERA of 3.19. He pitched in 2016 and had a mostly healthy season, save for a declining strikeout rate (6.9 K/9) and an increased walk rate (3.3 BB/9), with an ERA of 3.83 in 162 IP. This year his strikeouts (5.7 K/9) and walks (3.0 BB/9) have stayed bad, with a slightly better 3.57 ERA in 116 IP.

What has caused this drastic downturn in performance? It seems that some of his downturn is because he’s getting older, but that doesn’t explain his increased walk rate or his severe decrease in strikeouts. Most of this is likely due to injuries he sustained in the 2015 season. And given that he hasn’t gotten better, it seems as if he’s been pitching despite an injury which has been sapping his effectiveness. He went from being as good as Alex Cobb was in 2014 (considering the thought of the average active hitter in Japan being slightly better than AAA quality) to performing like Ervin Santana this year.

He was a great pitcher with some downside, like Jered Weaver was, but Kaneko hasn’t declined that far yet. Weaver is too bad to even be on an MLB team until he gets medical help to fix his hip and/or shoulder. Weaver is one of the other pitchers who had declined that quickly. So far, he hasn’t rebounded and has continued to get worse, worse than he was last year when he was the second-worst pitcher qualified for the ERA title. It appears that Weaver is virtually unfixable. I think that Kaneko’s issues can be fixed, though, and if they are fixed, he could be an interesting buy-low opportunity.

After the 2014 season, if I were Dayton Moore (armchair GM ideas away), I would’ve signed him to a three-year, $30-million deal with lots of incentives, which could’ve raised the value to $51 million if all were reached. And I think he would’ve done quite well; we might not have this article at all. I must digress, as what-ifs are all around us. (Look at Yordano Ventura, who died far too young with so much untapped potential left.)

He looks like a potential project for the Pirates if he can show signs of improvement in his performance and peripheral stats. The Pirates and Ray Searage could definitely turn Kaneko into something of value, like they did with A.J. Burnett, Edinson Volquez, JA Happ, Ivan Nova, Juan Nicasio, Joel Hanrahan, Mark Melancon, Tony Watson and more. There’s a good amount of upside in trying for this — some prospects that can help the team in the future.

Here is a link to his player page so you can see it for yourself and make your own conclusions about him, and what he can do to remedy himself.

I don’t own any stats used; all stats are from either FanGraphs or the NPB website linked above.