Revisiting Vegas

Before the season began, I wrote an article comparing the Vegas odds of each team winning the World Series to the projected standings according to Steamer. This is a look back at that comparison.

Using the Vegas odds of winning the World Series and the Steamer-projected standings, there were some strong plays on the board before the season began. Let’s look at each division, in chart form, starting with the NL West. The first table shows the Steamer pre-season projections. The second table shows the actual standings.

RDif=Run differential
RS/G=Runs scored per game
RA/G=Runs allowed per game
EXT W=Wins greater or fewer than Steamer projected

What I wrote then: It’s interesting that Vegas is really excited about the Padres, at least compared to the Rockies and Diamondbacks, who don’t project to be that much worse but who face significantly longer odds. With the Giants’ recent success, they are probably the best play here. Even if you don’t think they can beat out the Dodgers for the division, they’ve proven that they can make a run if they get into the playoffs as a wild card team. Of course, this is an odd-numbered year, so you might want to save your money and look elsewhere.

What actually happened: Steamer nailed the top of the division, picking both the Dodgers and Giants to win just one fewer game than they each did. The Diamondbacks and Padres were flipped, with the Diamondbacks winning five more games than projected and the Padres falling five games short. The Rockies came in way under. Vegas was right about the Dodgers being the favorites, with the Giants having the next-best odds, but the hype around the Padres at the beginning of the year proved to be unfounded and the Diamondbacks finished better than 120 to 1 odds would have predicted.

What I wrote then: The play here is the Pittsburgh Pirates. They are projected to be just a game off the division lead, but with odds at 30 to 1. In a world full of parity, every team in baseball would have a .500 record and 30 to 1 odds and there would be no supermodels. That would be a sad, sad, world. In this world, the Pirates are projected to be better than .500 and should have better odds than 30 to 1. Meanwhile, Vegas is excited about the Cubs, giving them 14 to 1 odds (they opened at 45 to 1). Some of you may remember that in Back to the Future, the Cubs won the 2015 World Series (in a 5-game sweep over Miami) after starting the year with 100 to 1 odds. This could be the Cubs’ year, McFly!

What actually happened: Steamer nailed the order of this division, right down to the gap between the top three teams and the bottom two. In the upper half of the NL Central, the Cardinals and Cubs shared the third-best odds in the National League and finished 1^st and 3^rd in overall win-loss record. The Pirates, on the other hand, finished with the second-best record in the NL but Vegas had them tied for eighth with the Marlins at 30 to 1 odds before the season. The Brewers and Reds both disappointed, but the Reds were particularly bad. They entered the season with 70 to 1 odds but finished the season with just 64 wins, one more than the Philadelphia Phillies, who were giving 300 to 1 odds back in April.

What I wrote then: There aren’t any real good plays here. As good as the Nationals look now, especially after acquiring Max Scherzer, it would be foolish to put any money on a major league team at 5 to 1 odds to win the World Series. There’s just too much unpredictability come playoff time. None of the teams in this division have appealing odds, unless your name is Lloyd Christmas, in which case you have to jump all over the Phillies at 300 to 1 (“So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”).

What actually happened: So much for those 5 to 1 odds in Vegas for the Washington Nationals. I hope you didn’t put too much money on them. Vegas was optimistic about the Nationals, as you would expect, but also gave the Marlins nearly the same odds as the Mets. The Mets made it all the way to the World Series, while the Marlins were 20 games under .500. The Phillies were the longest of longshots to win the World Series and finished with the worst record in the National League.

What I wrote then: There’s no love for the Tampa Bay Rays in Vegas, with odds of 75 to 1 in what still looks like a tight division. The Rays opened at 35 to 1. Apparently, Las Vegas does not like their recent moves. Based on Steamer projections, the Rays look like your best longshot option of any team in baseball.

What actually happened: At 14 to 1, the Red Sox were tied with the Seattle Mariners for the second-best odds of any American League team, with only the Los Angeles Angels topping them. The Red Sox (and Mariners) finished well below Steamer’s expectations. In the case of the Red Sox, the pitching didn’t hold up their end of the bargain. On the other hand, the Toronto Blue Jays had worse odds than nine other teams in the AL but finished with the second-best record in the league. They had nine more wins than Steamer projected.

What I wrote then: No team jumps out here, but if I had to pick one, I’d take the Indians at 25 to 1. They look to be right there with the Tigers to win the division, but with slightly worse odds, so you’d get a bigger payout if they went all the way.

What actually happened: I picked the Indians as the team to take a chance on, but everyone now knows the Royals were the best play. The 2015 World Champion Kansas City Royals were given 25 to 1 odds before the season started. Those odds placed the Royals behind six AL teams and tied with two others. They ended up with 14 more wins than projected by Steamer. The Tigers were the anti-Royals, finishing with 11 fewer wins than projected. The Tigers’ 20 to 1 odds were in the top six in the league and they finished with the second-worst record. The team with the longest odds in the AL, the Twins, actually made a run at a wild-card spot and had seven more wins than projected by Steamer.

What I wrote then: I guess when you lose Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Jeff Samardzija, Jon Lester, and Derek Norris, your odds to win the World Series should get worse, but 60 to 1, really? Steamer still has Oakland in the mix for the AL Wild Card and just 5 games back of the Mariners for the division.

What actually happened: Based on their 68-94 record, the Athletics deserved their pre-season 60-to-1 odds, but they weren’t as bad as their record. They had a run differential that was better than the Mariners, who won eight more games than the A’s. The Angels (10 to 1), Red Sox (14 to 1), and Mariners (14 to 1) were the top three favorites in the AL in Vegas before the season started and they finished, 6^th, 11^th, and tied for 12^th, respectively, in wins. The Angels were within range of a wild card spot and actually had one more win than Steamer projected, but the Mariners were big disappointments in Vegas and compared to their Steamer projection. They had 13 fewer wins than Steamer projected. The 50 to 1 Rangers had the worst Vegas pre-season odds of any team that went on to win their division.

The following chart shows the teams in each league with their pre-season Vegas odds, their Steamer projected win-loss record, and their actual win-loss record.

What I wrote then: The Pirates have worse odds than the Padres and Mets, neither of whom are projected to contend for the Wild Card or even finish .500. Aye, this be the National League team you should wager your doubloons on and win some booty!

What actually happened: The Pirates weren’t a bad play, really. They did win 98 games. They just ran into the Jake Arrieta Experience in the one-game wild card matchup with the Cubs.

Based on pre-season Vegas odds, the top five teams in the National League were the Nationals, Dodgers, Cardinals, Cubs, and Giants. Three of those five made the post-season. Steamer, on the other hand, had a top five of the Nationals, Dodgers, Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs, giving them four of the five post-season teams. Both Vegas and Steamer missed out on the Mets.

The Vegas pre-season odds did a good job of identifying the league’s worst teams. Five teams finished with fewer than 70 wins and they all had odds of 60 to 1 or worse before the season started. The 120 to 1 Diamondbacks were the exception among the teams expected to struggle in 2015, as they surprisingly won 79 games.

What I wrote then: In the American League, your best options are the Athletics and Rays, and possibly the Blue Jays. The A’s are right in the mix for the wild card, yet have the same odds as the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves. The Rays are projected to be nearly as good as the A’s and have even worse odds, better than only four teams in all of baseball—the Phillies, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Twins. The Blue Jays don’t look to be as good a play as the A’s and Rays but, like the Pirates, they have longer odds than other similarly competitive teams.

What actually happened: It turned out the A’s and Rays were not good plays, but how about those Blue Jays?

The Vegas pre-season odds suggested a top six of the Angels, Mariners, Red Sox, Tigers, Orioles, and White Sox, with all given odds of 20 to 1 or better. None of the six made the playoffs. You have to get down to the 25 to 1 Yankees and Royals to find a playoff team and they were joined by the 30 to 1 Blue Jays, 50 to 1 Rangers, and 60 to 1 Astros. Steamer projected a top seven that included the Mariners, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Indians, Blue Jays, and Athletics, all with 84 wins or more. Only the Blue Jays were a playoff team among this group.

The bottom line is that baseball is difficult to predict. Eleven teams had better odds than the World Series Champion Kansas City Royals and four teams had the same odds as the Royals. Yet, it was the Royals hoisting the World Series trophy when all was said and done.