After a strong 2017 (.347 wOBA, 4.1 sWAR), Lorenzo Cain is one of the top remaining free agents. As a plus center fielder, defense is one of Cain’s greatest assets. On the other hand, Cain’s durability is a big question, having played just once over 140 games in a single season (2017). Injuries and age are both substantial concerns moving forward.
If able to stay healthy for at least 130 games in 2018, Cain is projected to get on-base at an above-average rate (.356 OBP). Based on the projections, Cain should see a slight increase in both SLG and ISO from last year. Nonetheless, his wOBA should see a decrease in conjunction with an increase in K%. An overall decrease in offensive output will impact Cain’s sWAR (3.7) for 2018.
|2018 Projections: Lorenzo Cain|
Projections: “SEG Projection System” (Including sWAR for 2015-2018)
sWAR = “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR
Lorenzo Cain’s estimated AAV is around $21M per year, based on a four-year/$84M contract. He should be worth about 10 sWAR over the next three years. Staying healthy is crucial; as long as his speed does not drop dramatically, he should be able to significantly contribute for the next 2-3 seasons.
|Market Value: Lorenzo Cain|
|sWAR = “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR|
|$WAR Adjusted for Inflation (5% per year)|
 sWAR = “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR
 2018 Projections: Lorenzo Cain (SEG Projection System)