Lorenzo Cain: Market Value and 2018 Projections

After a strong 2017 (.347 wOBA, 4.1 sWAR[1]), Lorenzo Cain is one of the top remaining free agents. As a plus center fielder, defense is one of Cain’s greatest assets. On the other hand, Cain’s durability is a big question, having played just once over 140 games in a single season (2017). Injuries and age are both substantial concerns moving forward.

If able to stay healthy for at least 130 games in 2018, Cain is projected[2] to get on-base at an above-average rate (.356 OBP). Based on the projections, Cain should see a slight increase in both SLG and ISO from last year. Nonetheless, his wOBA should see a decrease in conjunction with an increase in K%. An overall decrease in offensive output will impact Cain’s sWAR (3.7) for 2018.

2018 Projections: Lorenzo Cain
YEAR	AGE	sWAR	wOBA	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	AVG	K%	BB%
2015	29	5.5	0.360	0.361	0.477	0.838	0.170	0.307	16.2%	6.1%
2016	30	2.7	0.322	0.339	0.408	0.747	0.121	0.287	19.4%	7.1%
2017	31	4.1	0.347	0.363	0.440	0.803	0.140	0.300	15.5%	8.4%
2018	32	3.7	0.330	0.356	0.443	0.798	0.145	0.298	16.9%	7.4%
Projections: “SEG Projection System” (Including sWAR for 2015-2018) sWAR = “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR

Lorenzo Cain’s estimated AAV is around $21M per year, based on a four-year/$84M contract. He should be worth about 10 sWAR over the next three years. Staying healthy is crucial; as long as his speed does not drop dramatically, he should be able to significantly contribute for the next 2-3 seasons.

Market Value: Lorenzo Cain
YEAR	AGE	sWAR	Value	$WAR
2018	32	3.7	$31.2	$8.4
2019	33	3.2	$28.3	$8.8
2020	34	2.7	$24.9	$9.2
TOTAL		9.6	$84.4
sWAR = “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR
$WAR Adjusted for Inflation (5% per year)

[1] sWAR = “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR

[2] 2018 Projections: Lorenzo Cain (SEG Projection System)