Eric Hosmer: Market Value and 2018 Projections

Hosmer certainly had his best season so far, with a 4.0 sWAR[1] and a .376 wOBA. Overall, consistency has not been there; over the past three years his offensive output has fluctuated, and that is something that can be said for his entire career. When looking at his offensive contribution, it seems that he has a “quality” season every other year. Nonetheless, Hosmer has been able to get on-base at an above-average rate of .359 OBP for the past three seasons. Also, he has managed to strike out (K%) at an average rate of 17.2% for the same period of time.

Moving forward, Hosmer’s offensive output for 2018 is projected[2] to see a slight decline. As previously mentioned, consistency is not his strength, and this should be reflected on his overall contribution for next year. A decline in wOBA (.351) from last year, alongside an increased K% (17.1%) will negatively impact his sWAR (2.6) in 2018.

Below you can find a detailed 2018 projection.

2018 Projections: Eric Hosmer
YEAR	AGE	sWAR	wOBA	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	AVG	K%	BB%
2015	25	2.7	0.355	0.363	0.459	0.822	0.162	0.297	16.2%	9.1%
2016	26	0.2	0.326	0.328	0.433	0.761	0.167	0.266	19.8%	8.5%
2017	27	4.0	0.376	0.385	0.498	0.883	0.180	0.318	15.5%	9.8%
2018	28	2.6	0.351	0.359	0.467	0.825	0.173	0.294	17.1%	9.2%
Projections: “SEG Projection System” (Including sWAR for 2015-2018) sWAR = “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR

Eric Hosmer’s estimated AAV is $21M, based on a five-year/$105M contract. He should be worth about 11.5 sWAR over the next five seasons. There has been a lot of noise regarding dollar amount and duration of contract. Going up to a seven-year agreement, he should be worth no more than $124M.

Market Value: Eric Hosmer
YEAR	AGE	sWAR	Value	$WAR
2018	28	2.6	$21.8	$8.4
2019	29	2.6	$22.9	$8.8
2020	30	2.6	$23.9	$9.2
2021	31	2.1	$20.4	$9.7
2022	32	1.6	$16.3	$10.2
2023	33	1.1	$11.8	$10.7
2024	34	0.6	$6.7	$11.2
TOTAL		13.2	$123.8
sWAR = “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR
$WAR: Adjusted for Inflation (5% per year)

 

[1] sWAR = “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR

[2] 2018 Projections: Eric Hosmer (SEG Projection System)