Ever since the MLB draft was created in 1965, teams have been searching for any competitive edge to separate themselves from the rest of the league. After all, it is one of the best ways to acquire young affordable talent for your organization. Not picking the best players available is a huge missed opportunity for any club and can set the organization back for years. It can also exasperate even the most devoted fans. It is imperative to have successful drafts every year, but what constitutes a successful draft? How many major leaguers are available in a draft and where can you find these players? These are some of the questions I hope to answer.

Methodology

Much of my analysis in this article will include references to team-controlled WAR. I calculated each draftee’s WAR total by summing their pitching and hitting WAR totals for the first seven years of their career to estimate the amount of value they provided their clubs before the players were eligible for free agency. This method is not perfect, because it does not consider demotions to the minor leagues, and it incorrectly assumes that every team would keep their prospects down in the minors to gain an extra year of control. However, I believe that the first seven years of WAR in a player’s career is a valid estimation of the value a player provides his organization before he exhausts his team-controlled seasons.

The drafts being examined are the drafts that took place from 1965 to 2004. I chose to stop at 2004 because that was the last year that had every player in its draft class exhaust his team-controlled seasons. If I were to include more recent drafts that still have active players, I could draw erroneous conclusions, since these players still have time to make their major league debuts and accumulate more WAR in their team-controlled seasons. Read the rest of this entry »

A lot has been written over the past year about pay at the minor league level and attempts to fix things, and with good reason — it’s a pretty bad situation, and with fundamental decency in mind, it is certainly a good thing that it may be changing.

But alongside that discussion, I’ve been kind of curious of how changing minor league pay would actually change performance. In theory, paying players more could let them focus on baseball, translating to better performance. If that’s the case, it’s even possible that paying players more could actually “pay for itself” if the value of the extra wins players generate outweighs the costs of paying them more. In a perfect world, to test that, you could randomly pay some players more than others and see which group does better.

We don’t live in a perfect world, but we do live in one where signing bonuses are still pretty random. Yes, obviously players drafted higher receive higher bonuses on average, but there’s still pretty significant variation across the board, especially when you get into later rounds. In 2015, for example, there were 105 players drafted who had assigned “slot values” of between $130,000 and $200,000, and their bonuses were anywhere from $2,000 to $1,000,000. While in general higher bonuses should go to more talented prospects, it also stands to reason that two players drafted around the same time with around the same slot values should have around the same talent level and chances to make the majors.

With that in mind, I took a look at a couple different ways of seeing how well players with much lower bonuses progressed. Using 2014-16 draft data from SBN, I had a set of all players drafted in the first 10 rounds along with their signing bonuses and slot values, which I then matched with FanGraphs’ data on player appearances at either the Triple-A or major league level from 2014 to 2019. In total, this left me with 922 players, of whom 319 (~35%) made a Triple-A or MLB appearance and 144 (~16%) that made an MLB appearance. 153 (~17%) had a signing bonus of $50,000 or lower. I looked at two different ways to see how signing bonuses varied with advancement. Read the rest of this entry »

My high-school-aged son sits at home yet again. Why? Because another of his baseball games has been canceled due to the wet and cold Ohio spring, and my thoughts turn again to our days playing baseball in Florida. Before we moved to this less-agreeable northern climate, it was a rarity to have a game canceled due to weather. Not only that, but games were scheduled year-round, which of course meant more baseball on the calendar. This situation reminded me of the familiar equation known to baseball fans:

Good weather leads to more playing.
More playing means better players.

But is this true? After all, it’s well-known that the best player in baseball, Mike Trout, is from cold-weather New Jersey. Many quickly point to the fact that California, Texas, and Florida are at the top of the list for states with the most MLB draftees, but they’re the three most populous states. Perhaps proportionally they don’t stack up to colder states after all.

I decided to look at the data from the last two drafts — 2017 and 2018 — to see if there is a relationship between a state’s average temperature and how well its players do in the draft. Do warmer-weather states really produce more MLB draftees than average?

To do this, I first gathered population data from each state to determine what percentage of the overall US population it contains. Then I did the same for each states’ MLB draft population. Finally, I compared those two figures and determined the percentage difference between their population proportion and their draft proportion. I call this figure the “Draft Difference”.

For example, let’s say State X makes up 10% of the US Population, but the State X’s draft class makes up only 8% of the overall class. Its Draft Difference is calculated as:

(Draft-Population)/Population = Draft Difference

In this case,

(8-10)/10 = -.20 = -20%

A state with 10% of the US population should, all things being equal, contribute 10% of all players in an MLB draft. But, in this case, State X did 20% worse than should be expected just from its population size. Read the rest of this entry »

Another off-season has come and gone, and your favorite team practically sat out free agency citing some combination of small-market budget concerns or vague allusions to the luxury tax, hoping you won’t mind another season of mediocrity. Why couldn’t they just get some of those cost-controlled star players? You know, the kind [team you hate] has! What were they thinking in the draft when they passed on all those late round gems?!?

It may be tempting to think you could assemble a truly unbeatable team with the benefit of hindsight, but even with some form of crystal ball or time machine, many players will never be available to you. Maybe a bargain free agent doesn’t like the weather in your city, international free agents might not see your system as their best option, and depending on your draft position, dozens of the most highly regarded young players will already be taken.

What follows is a hypothetical team constructed from a pool of players any team would have access to: domestic players drafted outside the first 30 picks. Steamer projections based on a full season of playing time were used to control for the differences in playing time these players might be expected to get on their real teams. Signability may still be of some concern so draft bonuses (as listed on thebaseballcube.com) are included for reference and players are split into arbitration eligible and pre-arb categories if a slightly more expensive upgrade is available. In some cases, your team may have needed to pass up on a free agent signing to avoid losing a first round pick.

All pre-arb team:

C: Austin Barnes (2.2 WAR, LAD) Drafted 9^th round, 283^rd overall in 2011. $95,000 Bonus.

1B: Rhys Hoskins (3.4 WAR, PHI) Drafted 5^th round, 142^nd overall in 2014. $349,700 Bonus.

2B: Whit Merrifield (1.9 WAR, KC) Drafted 9^th round, 269^th overall in 2010. $100,000 Bonus.

3B: Travis Shaw (1.6 WAR, MIL) Drafted 9^th round, 292^nd overall in 2011. $110,000 Bonus.

SS: Paul DeJong (2.4 WAR, STL) Drafted 4^th round, 131^st overall in 2015. $200,000 Bonus.

LF: Cody Bellinger (2.7 WAR, LAD) Drafted 4^th round, 124^th overall in 2013. $700,000 Bonus.

CF: Chris Taylor (2.1 WAR, LAD) Drafted 5^th round, 161^st overall in 2012. $500,000 Bonus.

RF: Aaron Judge (3.9 WAR, NYY) Drafted 32^nd overall in 2013. $1,800,000 Bonus.

SP: Zack Godley (3.4 WAR, ARI) Drafted 10^th round, 288^th overall in 2013. $35,000 Bonus.

SP: Joe Musgrove (3.4 WAR, PIT) Drafted 46^th overall in 2011. $500,000 Bonus.

SP: Tyler Glasnow (3.2 WAR, PIT) Drafted 5^th round, 152^nd overall in 2011. $600,000 Bonus.

SP: Steven Matz (3.1 WAR, NYM) Drafted 2^nd round, 72^nd overall in 2009. $895,500 Bonus.

SP: Bryan Mitchell (2.6 WAR, SD) Drafted 16^th round, 495^th overall in 2009. $800,000 Bonus.

RP: Chad Green (1 WAR, NYY) Drafted 11^th round, 336^th overall in 2013. $100,000 Bonus.

RP: Edwin Diaz (0.9 WAR, SEA) Drafted 3^rd round, 89^th overall in 2012. $300,000 Bonus.

RP: A.J. Minter (0.9 WAR, ATL) Drafted 2^nd round, 75^th overall in 2015. $814,300 Bonus.

RP: James Hoyt (0.8 WAR, HOU) Undrafted, signed in 2013.

RP: Scott Alexander (0.7 WAR, LAD) Drafted 6^th round, 179^th overall in 2010. $125,000 Bonus.

RP: Drew Steckenrider (0.7 WAR, MIA) Drafted 8^th round, 257^th overall in 2012. $137,900 Bonus.

RP: Carl Edwards Jr. (0.7 WAR, CHC) Drafted 48^th round, 1464^th overall in 2011. $50,000 Bonus.

Even assuming a replacement level bench, this team is a wild card contender with a combined 41.6 WAR from the listed players. With a full replacement level team expected to win 48 games, our best guess for this team would be 90 wins. All for a payroll around $15,000,000 and a total of $8,211,900 in bonuses, although you might expect to pay higher bonuses if you had selected some players in higher rounds.

Add in some arbitration-eligible players and you’ve got a real contender;

All under 6 years service time team:

C: J.T. Realmuto (2.4 WAR, MIA) Drafted 3^rd round, 104^th overall in 2010. $600,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $2,900,000.

1B: Anthony Rizzo (4.4 WAR, CHC) Drafted 6^th round, 204^th overall in 2007. $325,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $7,000,000.

2B: Brian Dozier (3.5 WAR, MIN) Drafted 8^th round, 252^nd overall in 2009. $30,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $9,000,000.

3B: Josh Donaldson (5.8 WAR, TOR) Drafted 48^th overall in 2007. $652,500 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $23,000,000.

SS: Paul DeJong (2.4 WAR, STL) Drafted 4^th round, 131^st overall in 2015. $200,000 Bonus.

LF: Aaron Judge (3.9 WAR, NYY) Drafted 32^nd overall in 2013. $1,800,000 Bonus.

CF: Kevin Kiermaier (3.7 WAR, TB) Drafted 31^st round, 941^st overall in 2010. 2018 Salary: $5,500,000.

RF: Mookie Betts (5.3 WAR, BOS) Drafted 5^th round, 172^nd overall in 2011. $750,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $10,500,000.

SP: Noah Syndergaard (5.8 WAR, NYM) Drafted 38^th overall in 2010. $600,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $2,975,000.

SP: Corey Kluber (5.2 WAR, CLE) Drafted 7^th round, 134^th overall in 2007. $200,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $10,500,000.

SP: Jacob deGrom (4.6 WAR, NYM) Drafted 9^th round, 272^nd overall in 2010. $95,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $7,400,000.

SP: Robbie Ray (4.5 WAR, ARI) Drafted 12^th round, 356^th overall in 2010. $799,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $3,950,000.

SP: Chris Archer (4.2 WAR, TB) Drafted 5^th round, 161^st overall in 2006. $161,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $6,250,000.

RP: Dellin Betances (1.3 WAR, NYY) Drafted 8^th round, 254^th overall in 2006. $1,000,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $5,100,000.

RP: Ken Giles (1.1 WAR, HOU) Drafted 7^th round, 241^st overall in 2009. $250,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $4,600,000.

RP: Zach Britton (1 WAR, BAL) Drafted 3^rd round, 85^th overall in 2006. $435,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $12,000,000.

RP: Chad Green (1 WAR, NYY) Drafted 11^th round, 336^th overall in 2013. $100,000 Bonus.

RP: Justin Wilson (0.9 WAR, CHC) Drafted 5^th round, 144^th overall in 2008. $195,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $4,250,000.

RP: Edwin Diaz (0.9 WAR, SEA) Drafted 3^rd round, 89^th overall in 2012. $300,000 Bonus.

RP: A.J. Minter (0.9 WAR, ATL) Drafted 2^nd round, 75^th overall in 2015. $814,300 Bonus.

This youthful juggernaut combines for 62.8 WAR – 111 wins for the season – with a payroll just under $120,000,000 and a total of $9,300,000 in draft bonuses.

Surely most readers don’t need any additional convincing that drafting and player development is incredibly hard, but the presence of so many late-round picks on this list should be some cause for optimism for fans of teams that leak either the means or desire to sign from the top tier of free agent talent. If you do happen to come across a time machine, congrats on all your future World Series rings.

As the 2017 MLB Draft quickly approaches, I thought it may be fun to analyze some of the best college hitters available.  On May 23, Eric Longenhagen released the 2017 Sortable Draft Board on FanGraphs.  This article looks at the statistics of each college hitter on the list.  In this article, I tried to not lean on literature and scouting reports of the players.  Rather, I decided to calculate some statistics to use as guides in building an outsider’s perspective of their offensive profiles.  This body of work does not include much information about attributes or skills not published on a school’s statistics page on their website.

Nobody real cares about the counting statistics of college players.  So, for my table of numbers to fit on a page, I left them out.  The statistics I focused on are a hitter’s slash line (AVG, OBP, and SLG), OPS, BABIP, ISO, RC, K% and BB%.  These are relatively easy to calculate and provide some sort of worth when evaluating prospects.  AVG, OBP, and SLG are simple and widely understood.  OPS provides a good gauge of a hitter’s overall offensive ability.  BABIP is an important indicator of a hitter’s talent at the plate, but can be inflated or deflated depending on the talent level of the different defenses faced by the hitter.  ISO is a good indicator of how well each hitter demonstrated their power and XBH ability.  Runs Created (RC) is a crude but effective measurement of total, individual offensive output.  K% and BB% give us some idea of how well the batter demonstrated their understanding of the strike zone and discipline at the plate.  For more information on each statistic, as well as how to apply it, I suggest checking out the Glossary tab.

Below is the table of numbers I made.  Even further below is where you will find a quick summation of each hitter discussed.

Jeren Kendall (#9 on FanGraphs Sortable Draft Board)

Vanderbilt                   OF                   (B- L/ T- R)

Jeren Kendall is considered by many to be the best college hitter, outside of Louisville two-way player Brendan McKay.  Kendall showed some impressive pop out of center field this past year, knocking 15 balls over the fence in 235 at bats.  However, he also managed to record 50 strikeouts.  Kendall did manage to produce an excellent walk rate and ISO, but his total output was “middle of the pack” as far as the guys on this list go.  He should go off the board within the first 20 picks this upcoming draft.

Adam Haseley (#15 on FanGraphs Sortable Draft Board)

Virginia                       OF                   (L/L)

Hitting from the left side of the plate, Virginia outfielder Adam Haseley managed to put up the best statistical profile of any hitter on this list.  He comes into June’s draft with an impressive OPS (1.186) and an even more entertaining strikeout rate — a board-best 7.7% (only 19 punch outs in 205 ABs).  While Haseley’s power numbers may not translate at the next level, his affinity for driving the ball into deeper parts of the ballpark should make for a high doubles count at the next level.

Keston Hiura (#17 on FanGraphs Sortable Draft Board)

UC Irvine                     2B                    (R/R)

While Keston Hiura’s .486 BABIP may be a good indicator as to why his batting average is north of .400, it is also a good indicator of just how good he is with a bat in his hand.  He did not just hit singles — his 21 doubles come in second on the list.  He displayed an excellent walk rate, which contributed to the highest on base percentage on the shortlist.  While some teams may elect to take a prep shortstop over a college second baseman, Hiura still plays a premium position with solid presence at the plate and would fit in nicely in any class as a second to third-round pick.

Pavin Smith (#18 on FanGraphs Sortable Draft Board)

Virginia                       1B                    (L/L)

The second UVA Cavalier on our list slashed an impressive .348/.433/.581 this past season, and posted an impressive 3.2% strikeout rate.  While his numbers do not match those of his teammate Adam Haseley, Pavin Smith could very well be the first college first baseman off the board, assuming you do not count Brendan McKay as a first baseman.  His demonstrated knowledge of the strike zone, coupled with a list-best walk rate, are both very good indicators of a first baseman with a high ceiling.

Logan Warmoth (#20 on FanGraphs Sortable Draft Board)

North Carolina            SS                    (R/R)

Tar Heel shortstop Logan Warmoth, when compared to the rest of this list, does not really stand out.  However, he should be taken early, as he still has the best odds of being the first college shortstop off the board.  He hit well in the ACC this past season, compiling 18 doubles, 4 triples, and 9 home runs.  Though his demonstrated power will likely not follow him up the minors, any team would love to have a strong bat such as his at the most premium of all premium positions.

Jake Burger (#22 on FanGraphs Sortable Draft Board)

Missouri State            3B                    (R/R)

Our only hot corner prospect on the list is a power threat through and through, according to his numbers.  While his average will continually drop as he climbs the minors, Burger’s 20 homers showcased his raw power.  Although there may be some questions about his tendency to punch out, plus power paired with an excellent walk rate at a corner position are a recipe for success.  Everybody loves a little yak sauce on their Burger every now and then.

Evan White (#29 on FanGraphs Sortable Draft Board)

Kentucky                      1B                    (R/L)

A first baseman who hits from the right side is very common.  A First Baseman who hits from the right side but throws left is very uncommon.  A first baseman who hits from the right side but throws left with plus speed is downright unique.   Evan White legged out a list leading 23 doubles this past year, and posted all-around great offensive numbers.  He will be a very interesting draft choice, and his excellent statistics project a demonstrate a solid offensive background.

Brian Miller (#49 on FanGraphs Sortable Draft Board)

North Carolina            OF                   (L/R)

Rounding out our list is North Carolina outfielder Brian Miller.  Miller slashed a very impressive .336/.412/.504 line this past year, and should be a good mid-grade prospect in the upcoming draft.  His statistics do not lean to one type of offensive profile over another, but his high BABIP and excellent walk rate generate some reasons to believe his bat will continue to develop at the next level.

Again, this article is meant to simply provide a statistical overview of a few college prospects in the upcoming draft.  It should be looked at as a tool for anybody who cares enough to concern themselves with college statistics.

Theodore Hooper is an undergraduate student at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville.  He can be found on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/theodore-hooper/ or on Twitter at @_superhooper_

With the MLB draft just past, I thought it would be appropriate to examine one of the most controversial topics surrounding the draft: the qualifying offer. Essentially, the qualifying offer intends to reward teams — presumably the small-market, low budget ones — that lose players in free agency. This reward comes in the form of an additional first-round draft pick for every player that signs with another team.

Only it isn’t that simple. Once a player reaches the end of his contract, the team can decide whether or not to offer the player a 1-year extension known as the qualifying offer. This new contract is equal to the average of the highest 125 salaries in MLB ($15.8 million in 2016). The player then chooses to either accept the qualifying offer or decline it — and thus, enter free agency with the assumption that he can earn more than a 1-year, $15.8 million contract. Once the player signs on with another team, his former team is awarded a first-round draft pick (to go along with the one(s) they already have, assuming they do) as compensation. Additionally, the player’s new team loses their first-round pick in the draft so long as it is outside the top 10 (in which case their second-round pick would be forfeited).

So, one would assume that, more often than not, a small-market team with a low payroll would benefit from this system. A budding star player reaches the end of his contract and commands a new contract worth hundreds of millions and spread over 5+ seasons. His current team does not have the financial resources to resign him, and another big-market team does. The cash-strapped team receives an additional first-round pick as compensation, while his new team willfully forfeits its first-round pick in exchange for his services over the next half-decade. And that’s that.

Not quite. I went back over the draft order for every year since 2013 (when the qualifying offer was first introduced) and summed the number of draft picks gained and lost. Results are shown below. I sorted the teams by their average payroll over the span in descending order. As you can see, the compensation is not in line with the assumption I presented above. In any way you shape it, the high-payroll teams are the ones benefiting from the current system. The 10 highest-payroll teams have received 19 additional draft picks over the four seasons — highlighted by the Cardinals who have gained four and lost none. The 10 teams with the lowest payrolls have received eight additional picks. The high payroll teams have a net draft pick gain of four, while the low payroll teams have a net loss of two.

Now, I’m not coming up with any revolutionary solutions here — I’m not that smart and I don’t get paid enough. I am simply presenting data that supports that MLB’s current free-agent compensation system doesn’t benefit the teams that need it the most. In fact, this seems to be a story of “the rich are getting richer” — big-money teams are receiving the extra draft picks that were seemingly meant for the low-budget ones. Maybe MLB scraps the compensation system altogether, maybe they extend the time frame for when a player can accept the qualifying offer (they currently have seven days), or maybe they come up with some other solution. In any case, the current CBA ends after the 2016 season so us fans will likely know the answer before next year’s draft.

The MLB draft was about two weeks ago and the Blue Jays selected a lefty out of Division 3 Union College in the 30th round. At first blush, a pick like this sounds like when a team selects a notable name like football star Russell Wilson for some good publicity. The selection might lead you to believe that Jake Fishman is a little crafty lefty who tosses batting-practice fastballs.

Well, not exactly. Jake Fishman was the top pitching prospect in all of Division 3 heading into the year, and he finished his 2016 collegiate season with a 0.41 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 66 innings, while regularly running his fastball up into the 90s. The 6’3 lefty was heading to play in the Cape Cod League this summer before the Blue Jays plucked him, signed him, and started him down a whirlwind that hopefully ends in big-league success.

Over the last few days, Jake has been kind enough to exchange emails with me. We covered his draft process, adjusting to pro ball, some of his theories on pitching, and tardigrades. I’ll be rooting for Jake, even as a proud Vassar Baseball alum. He’s a nice guy, a good story, and clearly a hard worker. Enjoy the interview.

SM: I saw that you just signed, so Congrats! Vassar coach Jon Martin is probably happy with that decision. How did that process work? Can you walk me through the decision making that lead to signing and foregoing your senior year? Union College is a good school with a good reputation.

Jake:  Thank you! The draft process is definitely hectic. For me, it was difficult to understand because I come from a family with no professional athletes and I went to a school where nobody has been drafted for baseball. Everything was new for us. So when scouts started to come around, my family and I started reaching out to anybody we could talk to that had gone through the process to get info on it. Eventually as the season progressed, a lot more teams reached out and watched me pitch. This went on until my season ended and we accumulated a hand full of teams that we could tell were more interested than the rest. I was invited to a few pre-draft workouts so I drove out and pitched for a couple teams before the draft.

When we finally reached the draft, we were waiting to hear (from) anybody. At the beginning of day 3 we got two phone calls from the Reds and the Blue Jays. I could have gone as early as the 10th round, but rounds 10-20 flew by very quickly and we hadn’t heard anything. I knew from the start that you can’t trust what the scouts tell you, but after round 20 hit I started to get really nervous.

The Blue Jays reached out again and said I was still on their draft board and they were thinking of taking me, while the Reds told us I would be a very late pick if they were to take me, and then they would watch me pitch in the Cape League to see how I did. Finally, when I was at the point of thinking I wasn’t going to get taken, the Blue Jays took me in the 30th round. It was the best feeling in the world.

Even though I went in the 30th round, they gave me a very reasonable offer for a kid like me. I expressed to the Blue Jays how important school was to me, and they offered to pay for my entire senior year of school. Tuition for next year is $65,000. If they didn’t offer to pay for school, I wouldn’t have signed. That was my biggest requirement. Before the draft, I spoke with my Dad so we could agree on a number. If push came to shove, I would accept a $50k signing bonus and all of school.

In the end, I was beyond happy with the offer they gave me because I had a lot of friends who are phenomenal players that didn’t get selected in the draft. I also think for the best opportunity to make it to the major leagues, I should start my career as soon as possible. As a deceptive lefty, there’s a chance I can move up the ranks fast, so if I have a great year in the minor leagues, they may look at me and say “let’s challenge this kid” and I would move up fast. And of course the Blue Jays were encouraging about getting me back to school in the fall to work towards finishing my degree. They might send me to a fall instructional league, but if they don’t then the timing works out perfectly with Union’s trimesters for me to get a fall term in before spring training starts.

SM: Okay that all seems to make a surprising amount of sense. I know that’s a nerve-racking process. I had a friend who actually went undrafted following his senior year after thinking he’d be picked up, and then wound up signing with the Yankees and has worked his way to high-A and is pitching well there, so draft position really isn’t all that important.  My buddy Max actually wrote about Yankees’ farmhand Matt Marsh here and I did a follow up about the success he’s enjoying so far in 2016. 

Anyway, your approach to the draft seems to align with the analytic approach I gleaned from your blog on pitching mechanics. You seem to have some strong opinions on pitching that have definitely helped you improve velo. So I guess two questions:

1) How’d you go from 84-86 as a freshman to 92 as a junior? A whole lot of us never make that jump.

2) You’re going to have a whole lot of new coaches and new perspectives. The Liberty League and [Union Head Coach] Paul Mounds are used to your kind of “heady” player. How are you going to handle it if the Jays make some adjustments to your mechanics or repertoire that don’t really make sense to you?

I tend to take an analytical approach with most things (except when I’m on the mound). But you’re definitely right about me having some strong opinions about pitching. I think that if somebody finds something that works for them, they should stick with it.

1) The big jump I made was from freshman to sophomore season in velocity. I put on 20 pounds and my strength shot through the roof. I’d always been a pretty fast kid, but I was scrawny. When I put on the weight I got bigger, stronger, faster and the velo followed.

I was around 88-90 my sophomore year (as long as it was warm), but I was a little shaky on the mound. It felt almost as if I had hit another big growth spurt and I didn’t have pinpoint control of my body. It took me until the summer, where I pitched for the Brockton Rox (of the collegiate summer league FCBL), to figure out my mechanics again. From then I’ve maintained my weight and kept my control. It’s been smooth sailing ever since then and I picked up a mph or two just from adding strength over this year.

2) It’s funny to me that you bring that up. The past three years, Coach Mound has accepted that I have my own philosophy behind the stuff I do and he was very open to letting me follow my routine. High school was the same way. The commonalities between the two is that I was pitching well. As long as I do well, my coaches have stayed away from changing me mechanically and philosophically. From what I can tell, the Blue Jays follow the same approach. After listening to our pitching coordinator here, he has been discussing a lot about his philosophies and what the ideal pitchers have done to make it to the big leagues. He’s been making suggestions to us that he thinks will help us. He doesn’t expect us to change, but if we start pitching poorly those suggestions are gonna have to be worked into our routine. So my take on that is I’ll just keep pitching well and there shouldn’t be an issue.

SM:  It should be interesting to see how that plays out. I know different organizations tend to have different philosophies on how their pitchers should conduct themselves. Was it Daisuke Matsuzaka who threw 300-foot long toss between starts? That got shut down quickly by the Red Sox.

I also noticed that you had 5 unearned runs this year. How many of those were legit unearned? Did your ERA benefit from some friendly scorekeeping?

Yeah they shut down a lot of the stuff Matsuzaka did that seemed unusual for baseball in the United States. For now, they are just encouraging us to just go out there and pitch our game so they can see what we have and make adjustments from there.

Thinking back, maybe one of those unearned runs could be scored as an earned run. But at the same time, one of my earned runs could have turned out as unearned, so I think in the end it’s balanced itself out.

SM:  Yeah, it’s just interesting to think about the difference between really good and great. I guess that difference gets that much tighter in affiliated ball.

I saw an awesome interview with Lance McCullers that really felt like a new-age way of thinking about attacking hitters. I’d love to hear your reaction to his theory of emphasizing spin over movement and velocity.

Jake: It really does. We got to see some big leaguers a couple days ago who were recovering. They threw an inning to our drafted position players and you could tell there was a difference but it’s such a small one. Everything’s just a little bit tighter.

I like his approach. As a former hitter in college, I can relate to what he’s talking about in terms of picking up the spin on the ball. Not being able to see the spin was what beat me most. It’s definitely new-age now that we can pick up spin rates of the ball and I think it can be an extremely useful tool to use.

I like his view on a lot of things he mentions in his interview like adjusting to the hitters’ mentalities whether they are being aggressive or patient at the plate and his changeup (because that’s how I throw my changeup). But at the same time, I think location of the pitch is just as important. Or maybe I should say it’s another way to fool the batter in combination of spin. I can see having spin rate as a priority though, because if you can’t see the spin you don’t know where the ball is going.

SM Exactly. Well I’m sure the Blue Jays will get some spin reads on you and you can start to use that information to your advantage.

Thanks so much for the exchange of emails. We’re definitely be looking out for you and I will likely reach back out in the offseason to see how things are going.

Now, it’s time for the rapid fire all-important questions. You must answer honestly and you’re only allowed to provide explanation for 2. No clarification from me of any kind will be provided.

The MLB draft has passed but its impact will last. Some selections will go down as busts (e.g. Matt Anderson by the Tigers in 1997). Others will be real bargains such as Carlos Beltran with the 49^th pick in 1995. I decided to look at the numbers in an attempt to answer the following questions I read over the last few weeks:

1. How many Round 1 picks do end up in the big leagues? What’s the average impact of a Round 1 pick? How does that compare to Round 2? Are there differences between pitcher and batters?
2. What has been the best draft class for the 1993-2008 period? (per three first rounds)
3. What teams have done a better job?
4. What is the best round (top 10 overall picks)?

As I usually do, let’s define the data sources and assumptions. First, my data source is Baseball-Reference. There are many assumptions and disclaimers in this process, but the most important ones are:

1. I am using data from 1993 to 2008 to give ample time for players to reach MLB. As I am using career WAR, I don’t want to over-penalize players that have been selected in the recent years and therefore have not accumulated MLB service time.
2. Organizations change and so do their ways of conducting business, which evidently includes draft strategy. We are looking at teams rather than specific front offices or general managers.
3. WAR refers to Baseball-Reference WAR (i.e. bWAR).
4. Teams may have more than one pick per round due to compensation and supplemental picks.
5. This methodology does not take into account the overall quality of the draft pool i.e. total WAR per draft year is not constant.
6. All WAR is allocated to the team that drafts the player. Understandably, that is not true but let’s toy with the idea through this post.

Let’s get to it.

Question 1 – How many Round 1 picks do end up in the big league? What’s the average impact of a Round 1 compare to a Round 2 pick? Are there differences between pitcher and batters?

The table below outlines how many players have been/were called up to the majors and how many actually have had a positive career WAR i.e. over 0.0. I have also added the average career WAR per player and I have broken down the data by round and by position (pitcher and batter) to grasp the differences easily. Just take a moment with this table:

Three things come to my mind:

First, this provides some empirical validation of what we intuitively thought: First-round picks produce greater WAR values than the others. While I only have data for the first three rounds, it’s worth noting that the gap between Round 1 to Round 2 (10%) is smaller than from Round 2 to Round 3 (41%).

Second, I actually found surprising that 67% of first-rounders reached MLB at some point. That is two players out of three and it’s a testament to how important raw skills are when it comes to moving up through the minors.

Lastly, the answer to the question of whether t draft pitchers or batters looks like an easy one. Batters not only reached MLB at a higher pace but delivered better results as a group and as individuals. While these results are not statistically significant, they provide a pragmatic answer to the question and suggest a sound strategy might be to draft batters and trade for pitchers later down the road.

Question 2 – What has been the best draft class for the 1993-2008 period?

This table should provide guidance on how to answer this question but does not fully explain it. If we think of it as the number of players that got to MLB, then 2008 is the best year. That year highlights Eric Hosmer, Buster Posey, Brett Lawrie, Craig Kimbrel and Gerrit Cole as the most prominent stars, but offers a very low career total WAR as most of its players are still playing – they’re the youngest generation of my sample. In this class, 27 out of the top 30 picks have reached MLB, though a few for a very short stint e.g. Kyle Skipworth or Ethan Martin.

If we think of the highest total career WAR, then the winner is 2002. This class is led by two of the best picks on the sample (Zack Greinke and Joey Votto) but also features Prince Fielder, Jon Lester and Curtis Granderson. If we think of highest concentration of skills, then the 1995 class has to be the first one with an average of 11.8 WAR per MLB player. On the other hand, only 41 players got the MLB call, the lowest among the sample. While Carlos Beltran and Roy Halladay are the most notable names in that draft, player such as Darin Erstad, Kerry Wood, Randy Winn and Bronson Arroyo enjoyed nice peaks.

Question 3 – What teams have done a better job?

Evidently, not every team has selected in the same combination of draft slots e.g. some teams have had the opportunity to choose top picks (Rays, for example), while other have frequently picked from mid-bottom draft slots (Yankees).  It would not be fair to compare total career WAR for players the Yankees has selected against those that the Rays has because the latter had more options and access to a different pool of players than that the Yankees had. How to fix that? I am comparing what each team did on the overall pick they were slotted. If we use 2016 as an example, I would be comparing how good Philadelphia was in choosing Mickey Moniak as pick 1 against the average of all other first picks in the timeframe (1993-2008). Once I know the WAR gap between a particular team and the average WAR per pick, I need to standardize that number by the standard deviation i.e. calculating Z scores. In simple terms, this is understanding how good or bad a pick was in relation to the entire distribution of a particular draft slot. The Z-score number allows us to compare how good a 14th pick was in relation to a third pick, for example. Finally, to identify which teams have fared better, I am calculating the average of Z-scores for all picks.

Again, there are many caveats here, but this should give us a ballpark estimate on how well teams have drafted from 1993-2008. Keep in mind, this methodology does not produce a linear WAR per draft slot. That would mean, for example, that overall pick 4 will produce greater WAR than pick 5. On average, the 4^th pick has produced 6.2 WAR on average, while the 5^th one has produced 14.3. While this might be counter-intuitive (it is at least for me), the empirical evidence of this sample size shows that.

Perhaps surprisingly, the Phillies come at the top of the list. The Phillies advantage came in three picks: First, Chase Utley was drafted in 2000 with the high 15th pick and has had a great career that is up to 63.4 WAR. Second, in 1993, the Phillies chose Scott Rolen (70 career WAR) with the 46th overall pick – which seems like a bargain now. Finally, Randy Wolf in 1997 was selected in the 54^th position and went on to have a 23.1 career WAR. The Nationals have had very much success on their first few years as a franchise with both Jordan Zimmermann and Ryan Zimmerman. The sample size does not include Bryce Harper or Stephen Strasburg, which may push the Nats to the top of the list in the near future.

Astros, Expos, Yankees, Cubs and Indians are the bottom five teams. Coincidentally or not, these teams have long droughts (Yankees exempted). Interesting to see if there is a relationship between draft performance and wins but I guess that’s is another post.

We could go and dig deeper for each team into what they’ve done well and not so much but that would not make sense. Teams make mistakes and it looks like the draft selection is pretty damn hard with an extremely high WAR standard deviation (11.6 WAR through the first 30 picks).

Question 4 – What is the best round (top 10 overall picks)?

This question is about finding the best selection on each of the first 10 picks. I’ve used the Z-score which pick was really ahead of the curve.

Well, this is quite a nice group of players. A-Rod is the WAR leader of our sample. Even as a first pick, which on average has yielded the highest WAR, he manages to be three standards deviations above the mean. Five other players are active and two of them (Greinke and Kershaw) still are among the best starting pitchers in the game. They will continue to cement their position as great draft picks for the Royals and Dodgers. Interestingly enough, Barry Zito and Eric Chavez were part of the A’s Moneyball team that frequently over-performed a few years ago — a reminder of how important it is to build a strong core of players.

As a bonus question – these are the top 10 picks, according to this methodology:

As always, feel free to share your thoughts and comments in the section below or through our twitter account @imperfectgameb.

Note: This analysis is also featured in our emerging blog www.theimperfectgame.com

With the NFL Draft having been on, it’s hard for us baseball nerds not to get excited about the MLB draft that’s a little over four weeks away. As many of you know, it is almost impossible to predict an MLB draft. In the NFL, teams are drafting to fill current needs and expect most prospects to be immediate impacts. We know this not to be the case in baseball. To keep it simple, the MLB draft is an absolute crapshoot. But that does not mean that we can’t have fun with it.

Without further ado, with the first overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, the Philadelphia Phillies select:

1. LHP Jason Groome – Barnegat HS (NJ)

Before Brady Aiken was taken in 2014 by the Houston Astros, the last high-school pitcher taken first overall was Brien Taylor in 1991 by the New York Yankees. We all know how that ended up. However, as of right now, it would seem that Groome, who goes to school roughly 60 miles from Citizens Bank Park, is the consensus top prospect heading into the draft. At 6’6′ 220 pounds, Groome touches 96 mph, but sits 90-94 mph with his fastball. Groome could be a great addition to the Phillies already improved rotation, as he has the makings of a future ace. He has committed to play college baseball at Vanderbilt.

2. Cincinnati Reds – 3B Nick Senzel (Tennessee)

It would appear that Walt Jocketty and Dick Williams have been targeting MLB-ready players through offseason trades, acquiring players such as Scott Schebler, Jose Peraza, Rookie Davis, Caleb Cotham, and Eric Jagielo. They also have a history of taking college players in the first round such as Drew Stubbs (Texas), Yonder Alonso (Miami), and Mike Leake (Arizona State). As the best college bat in this draft class, Senzel seems like a perfect fit to go to the Reds. His all-fields approach at the plate should enable him to hit for both average and power at the next level. Look for Senzel to be a big piece to the Reds’ “quick rebuild.”

3. Atlanta Braves – OF Kyle Lewis (Mercer)

The Braves have not selected a college position player in over two decades. With a plethora of young pitching throughout their system, look for the Braves to break that trend. The Braves are also known to draft players out of their backyard, such as Brian McCann and Jason Heyward. In fact, many have referred to Kyle Lewis as a right-handed Jason Heyward without the defense. Many scouts believe he will end up in right field and that he could become a serious home-run threat in the league. Lewis will be the first ever player taken in the first round out of Mercer.

4. Colorado Rockies – LHP AJ Puk (Florida)

The search for an ace continues in Colorado. Three of their last five first-round picks have been used on college arms. If Puk happens to fall to them at 4, I would be very surprised if they passed up on him. At 6’7″ 230 pounds, Puk can touch 99 mph with his fastball. It will be interesting to see how his control and command translate to the next level. He could be the frontline starter that Colorado has been looking for in the past few drafts.

5. Milwaukee Brewers – RHP Riley Pint (St Thomas Aquinas HS – KS)

One of my favorite prospects in this draft is the Kansas high-school pitcher Riley Pint. At 6’4″ 210 pounds, Pint sits in the mid- to high 90s with his fastball and touched 102 mph this spring. He also features a plus curveball and changeup. His fastball is what fascinates me though. With his lower arm slot, his fastball has lots of movement. Here is where you will notice that I am a baseball nerd. When I first watched a clip of Pint, I immediately thought of White Sox prospect Tyler Danish. Obviously, Danish does not have Pint’s fastball, but you will understand my logic if you watch the video. With that said, Pint could be the best prep arm ever to come out of Kansas and is committed to play at LSU next year.

6. Oakland Athletics – OF Corey Ray (Louisville)

Everyone knows about Oakland’s love for college position players in the draft. In the past 14 years, their first-round pick has been a prep player only three times. He is currently slashing .318/.390/.597 with 11 homers and 47 RBIs. Ray is an above-average hitter with plus speed and tremendous athletic ability overall. He could bring a lot of value to a team playing center field at the next level.

7. Miami Marlins – OF Blake Rutherford (Chaminade College Prep – CA)

Rutherford is considered the best prep bat in the class. Due to being a 19-year-old senior, scouts have their concerns as the track record for older high-school players speaks for itself. However, that may mean quicker stints in the minor leagues. Rutherford is considered a five-tool player who will eventually end up in right field. He comes from the same school that produced Blue Jays OF Kevin Pillar and is committed to play college ball at UCLA.

8. San Diego Padres – SS Delvin Perez (International Baseball Academy – Puerto Rico)

We all know what happened to the last shortstop to come out of Puerto Rico. Before anyone becomes enraged, I am only kidding. I am not comparing Perez to Carlos Correa. However, Perez has his own uniqueness as a ball player. He is the definition of a “glove-first” shortstop, who has plenty of potential with the bat. Right now, he profiles as an Andrelton Simmons. If his bat develops, he will easily be a perennial All-Star. With his ceiling, it would be hard for AJ Preller to pass him up.

9. Detroit Tigers – RHP Dakota Hudson (Mississippi State)

For some reason, I feel like Hudson has Detroit Tigers written all over him. The Tigers have drafted their fair share of players from the SEC (James McCann and Jonathon Crawford). They also love their big-velocity pitchers, such as Beau Burrows. Hudson’s fastball touches 97 with some run and sink and also features a nasty high-80s slider with solid break. As of right now, Hudson has the look of a future frontline starter.

10. White Sox – OF Mickey Moniak (La Costa Canyon HS – CA)

The White Sox have emerged as one of the best teams in baseball through the first month of play. If they can keep this up, having a top-10 pick in the draft will enable them to beef up their farm system. The White Sox aren’t known for taking prep pitchers in the first round and the best available on the board here could be Moniak. This Southern California kid has committed to play at UCLA with fellow draftee Blake Rutherford. He has an advanced hit tool with a more contact-oriented swing, but lacks power at the moment. With his plus speed and defense, Moniak would be a safe pick at 10.

11. Seattle Mariners – RHP Connor Jones (UVA)

Before anyone says anything, I know the first person that comes to mind is Danny Hultzen. UVA pitchers also have an interesting track record in the major leagues. However, Seattle’s depleted farm system could use a win in this year’s draft. Jones is one of the safest picks at the top of this class. He has stepped in for Nathan Kirby as the Friday night starter and has shown the ability to lead the Cavalier’s staff. Jones throws a low- to mid 90s fastball with plus sink and a solid slider and changeup. This pick makes a lot of sense for Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners, even though I could also see them going after a bat to eliminate any risk with a pitcher.

12. Boston Red Sox – RHP Forrest Whitley (Alamo Heights HS – TX)

At this spot, with an already strong farm system, I expect the Red Sox to take the best available on the board. At 6’7″ 225 pounds, Whitley throws a 92-97 mph fastball with movement and has an above average curveball with good depth. Many believe he’s the best prep pitcher behind Riley Pint. He is committed to play at Florida State next year.

13. Tampa Bay Rays – RHP Ian Anderson (Shenendehowa HS – NY)

Last year, the Rays took a prep star (Garrett Whitley) from Upstate New York with the 13th overall pick. Right down the road from where Whitley went to school is an impressive prep pitcher named Ian Anderson. Looking at their impressive rotation of Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore, and eventually Blake Snell, the Rays are getting the reputation of developing their pitchers. Mike Nikorak was a northeastern prep pitcher who slid into the first round last year to the Rockies. With a 6’3″ 170 pound projectable frame, Anderson throws his fastball 91-95 mph with good downhill angle. He is committed to play at Vanderbilt next year.

14. Cleveland Indians – OF Buddy Reed (Florida)

Cleveland has shown that it values upside earlier in the draft with picks such as Brady Aiken at 17th overall last year. Reed has above-average speed with above-average defensive skills, but his overall stock will be determined by the amount that he hits. At 6’4″ 185, he has a projectable build that should be able to stay in center field. His overall high ceiling will get him selected in the first round.

15. Minnesota Twins – LHP Joey Wentz (Shawnee Mission East HS – KS)

Wentz was originally being looked at as a first baseman as he blasted a 543ft shot at Great American Ballpark last summer. There is no question that his future as a pitcher looks more promising. With 6’5″ 210 pound frame, Wentz has a fastball that sits between 90-95 mph with a plus curveball and changeup. He has a clean delivery and athleticism to go along with his big frame. Wentz is committed to play at UVA next year.

16. Los Angeles Angels – LHP Braxton Garrett (Florence HS – AL)

With the current state of the Angels farm system, they are best off by taking the best available. They have a tendency to go with pitching at the top of their drafts. Garret is a 6’3″ 190 pound lefty prep star out of Alabama. Scouts claim he has one of the best curveballs in this class with a fastball that sits 90-94 mph and has late life. Many say that he has the ceiling of a future No. 2 starter. He is one of the many commitments to play at Vanderbilt next year.

17. Houston Astros – 3B Josh Lowe (Pope HS – GA)

The Astros’ farm system is loaded; therefore, they can afford to go with a high-ceiling pick. Lowe has raw power, as you see in that video, with his 6’4″ frame. With his plus speed and arm strength, he could play either third base or the outfield. If hitting does not work out, some scouts claim he’s the best prep pitcher to come out of Georgia since Zack Wheeler. Lowe can reach mid 90s with his fastball and is committed to play at Florida State next year.

18. New York Yankees – RHP Kevin Gowdy (Santa Barbara HS – CA)

The Yankees have been successful with their Southern California prospects and have also been targeting pitching in the top rounds. Gowdy comes from the same high school as former White Sox prospect Dylan Axelrod and Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs. At 6’4″ 170 pounds, Gowdy has a projectable frame with three above-average pitches (fastball, slider, change). His fastball sits 92-93 mph, but it is easy to imagine increased velocity in his future. Gowdy is committed to play at UCLA next year.

19. New York Mets – RHP Matt Manning (Sheldon HS – CA)

The Mets have accumulated tons of pitching in the past few years with one of the best, if not THE best, rotation in baseball right now. I could see them targeting a prep pitcher with tons of upside like Matt Manning, son of former NBA player Rich Manning. His spring season has been cut short due to a deep playoff run for basketball. At 6’6″ 185 pounds, Manning uses every inch of his tall frame throwing his fastball 96-97 mph. He is committed to play at Loyola Marymount next year.

20. Los Angeles Dodgers – RHP Cal Quantrill (Stanford)

Dodgers are known to target high upside early in the draft. Last year, they drafted injury-prone pitcher Walker Buehler from Vanderbilt and the struggling Kyle Funkhouser from Louisville. If it wasn’t for Tommy John last spring, Quantrill would have been a top-10 pick this year. He is the son of former big league reliever Paul Quantrill and has an advanced feel for pitching, which should enable him to move quickly through the minors. Quantrill has four pitches that could be major-league average. This is a high-risk, high-reward pick that I would not be surprised seeing the Dodgers take at 20th overall.

21. Toronto Blue Jays – C Zack Collins (Miami)

Collins is the definition of a “bat-first” player. He is destroying the baseball this year in the ACC with a walk total that is double his strikeout total. Collins seems to be a better fit in the AL where he could potentially DH and he has drawn some comparisons to Evan Gattis/Kyle Schwarber type. Scouts aren’t sure if he will stick behind the dish, but he has to potential to put up 20-plus homers annually.

22. Pittsburgh Pirates – OF Alex Kirillof (Plum HS – PA)

In 2004, the Pirates selected local prep star Neil Walker with the 11th overall pick. Walker has now departed via an offseason trade to the Mets for LHP Jon Niese. I wouldn’t be surprised if Huntington and the gang select local star Kirillof if he falls to them at 22. Kirillof has explosive bat speed and power from the left side of the plate and is projected to be a corner outfielder. He is committed to play at Liberty next year, but signability should not be an issue.

23. St. Louis Cardinals – RHP Jordan Sheffield (Vanderbilt)

Sheffield’s brother Justus was a first round pick of the Indians in 2014. Out of all the pitchers in this draft class, Sheffield may have the best chance of developing his three plus offerings. His fastball touches 98 mph and sits 94-96 mph. However, like many power pitchers, he comes with injury concerns after having Tommy John surgery in 2013. His size and explosive stuff draws comparisons to the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman, but it also leads to concerns about his durability as a starter. If anyone can develop Sheffield, it’s the model team of major-league baseball.

24. San Diego Padres – 3B Will Craig (Wake Forest)

This pick is for free agent Justin Upton signing with the Detroit Tigers. Due to pick a prep bat early on in the draft, I can see the Padres going with a college bat here. Preller has a love for high-ceiling talent and could look to add a power bat like Will Craig. Do you know when the last time a Wake Forest player was drafted in the first round? In 2008, Allan Dykstra was drafted 23rd overall by the SAN DIEGO PADRES. Am I on to something here? Probably not. At 6’3″ 235 pounds, Craig draws comparisons to Billy Butler. Stay with me here Padres fans, I don’t mean to scare you off that quickly. Craig has impressive bat speed with his right-handed swing and many see him having 20-plus homer seasons with high OBPs due to his command of the strike zone.

25. San Diego Padres – RHP Jared Horn (Vintage HS – CA)

This pick is for free agent Ian Kennedy signing with the Kansas City Royals. After taking a college and prep bat, the Padres could go after a talented prep pitcher. The 6’3″ Northern California prep pitcher may be one of the more underrated arms on the board. His fastball is consistently 94-96 mph and many scouts love his competitiveness on the mound (starting quarterback for high school team). He is committed to play at the University of California-Berkeley next year.

26. Chicago White Sox – OF Bryan Reynolds (Vanderbilt)

This pick is for free agent Jeff Samardzija signing with the San Francisco Giants. After taking a prep bat, the White Sox could target a safe college bat with three years of consistent performance. Reynolds is one of the more well-rounded players with solid speed and defense, but his below-average arm has left field written all over it. Reynolds will not kill you with any one particular tool, but he could be a solid average major-league performer.

27. Baltimore Orioles – RHP Robert Tyler (Georgia)

This pick is for free agent Wei-Yin Chen signing with the Miami Marlins. The Orioles need to start stockpiling on pitching and I wouldn’t be surprised if they targeted a college arm with this pick. Their current MLB rotation is below average and they have not done a great job of developing top prospects Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey. Tyler was previously drafted by the Orioles in 2013 in the 28th round out of high school. However, he would have gone in the top five rounds if he were signable. He has one of the best fastballs in this draft, which sits 92-95 mph as a starter. Tyler is tough to hit due to his steep downward plane, but some scouts see him ending up in a bullpen.

28. Washington Nationals – SS Nolan Jones (Holy Ghost Prep – PA)

This pick is for free agent Jordan Zimmermann signing with the Detroit Tigers. This year, there could be two prep bats out of Pennsylvania taken in the first round. Jones has good bat speed and raw power from the left side. Currently, he plays shortstop in high school, but many scouts feel that his 6’4″ frame will profile better at third. He is committed to play at UVA next year.

29. Washington Nationals – LHP Kyle Muller (Jesuit College Prep – TX)

This pick is for free agent Ian Desmond signing with the Texas Rangers. Texas prep pitcher, Kyle Muller, is from the same school that produced Pirates top prospect Josh Bell. While he is more impressive on the mound, Muller has also battled for the national high-school lead in homers. His fastball sits in the low 90s, but can touch 95 mph. Muller has one of the best bodies in the draft at 6’5″ 230 pounds and is committed to play at the University of Texas next year.

30. Texas Rangers – RHP Cody Sedlock (Illinois)

This pick is for free agent Yovani Gallardo signing with the Baltimore Orioles. In the last three drafts, the Rangers have used their top pick on a pitcher. Last year, the Twins took Illinois left hander Tyler Jay with the sixth overall pick. Sedlock has done very well this year in his transition to the rotation with 90 strikeouts and 24 walks in 11 starts. He has all the tools of a starter with four solid pitches, command of the strike zone, and the ability to generate ground balls. Sedlock’s best pitcher is his sinker that sits 91-93 mph.

31. New York Mets – 3B Drew Mendoza (Lake Minneola HS – FL)

This pick is for free agent Daniel Murphy signing with the Washington Nationals. If they go after a pitcher with their first pick, look for them to target a prep bat. At 6’4″ 195 pounds, he has a tremendous feel for hitting which should generate some power at the next level. With his great arm strength, he projects better as a third baseman. Mendoza is committed to play at Florida State next year.

32. Los Angeles Dodgers – OF William Benson (The Westminster School – GA)

This pick is for free agent Zack Greinke signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks. After taking a high-risk, high-upside college arm, look for them to roll the dice on a high-risk, high-ceiling prep bat in William Benson. Many scouts have referred to the Atlanta prep star as Jason Heyward 2.0. Both were high-school prospects in Atlanta, have similar builds, and tremendous athletes. Benson stands 6’6″ 220 and has tremendous bat speed which give him above-average power. At the next level, many project him to move from center to right field. Benson is committed to play at Duke next year.

33. St. Louis Cardinals – C Matt Thaiss (UVA)

This pick is for free agent John Lackey signing with the Chicago Cubs. After taking a college pitcher, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cardinals target a college or prep bat. At UVA, Thaiss has been consistent with the bat, but extremely raw behind the dish. Scouts are not sure if he will stick at catcher when he gets to the next level.

34. St. Louis Cardinals – OF Taylor Trammell (Mount Paran Christian School – GA)

This pick is for free agent Jason Heyward signing with the Chicago Cubs. At 6’2″ 195, the Cardinals would be getting an athlete to say the least with Taylor Trammell. He was the Georgia Class A Offensive Football Player of the Year after rushing for 2,479 yards and 36 touchdowns. When it comes to baseball, he is very raw offensively and defensively. As he is learning to recognize pitches and tap into his raw power, scouts give him a 70 grade for his speed. Trammell is committed to play at Georgia Tech next year.

There it is folks. That is my best or most educated guess on a mock draft about four weeks out. In the meantime, things can change. One of the pitchers in this group could go down with an injury or a prep star could announce that he will be attending school regardless of where he’s drafted. With that said, I hope you all enjoy this and have as much fun with this as I did.

“Grit” in baseball has long been a gag for the saber crowd. Fire Joe Morgan was basically one long joke about how gritty David Eckstein was. And there’s good reason to distrust “grit.” Grit, hustle, guts — they’re unquantifiable (sabermetrician attempts to the contrary), often racially coded, and poorly defined skills. (Grit does predict great legal representation, though!)

Yet “grit” has evolved into a buzzword and teachable skill — one that social scientists suggest correlates with success in school, work, and life. Grit is defined by Prof. Angela Duckworth, who pioneered the field of “grit” research, as follows:

We define grit as perseverance and passion for long-term goals. Grit entails working strenuously toward challenges, maintaining effort and interest over years despite failure, adversity, and plateaus in progress. The gritty individual approaches achievement as a marathon; his or her advantage is stamina. Whereas disappointment or boredom signals to others that it is time to change trajectory and cut losses, the gritty individual stays the course.

Duckworth’s research suggests that grittiness corresponds with success in everything from spelling bees to West Point.

So why not in baseball? In a sport where we are constantly prophesizing how players develop, isn’t the predictive power of “grit” something we should be looking at? And can “grit” help us ID players who are more than meets the eye? Read the rest of this entry »