Another off-season has come and gone, and your favorite team practically sat out free agency citing some combination of small-market budget concerns or vague allusions to the luxury tax, hoping you won’t mind another season of mediocrity. Why couldn’t they just get some of those cost-controlled star players? You know, the kind [team you hate] has! What were they thinking in the draft when they passed on all those late round gems?!?
It may be tempting to think you could assemble a truly unbeatable team with the benefit of hindsight, but even with some form of crystal ball or time machine, many players will never be available to you. Maybe a bargain free agent doesn’t like the weather in your city, international free agents might not see your system as their best option, and depending on your draft position, dozens of the most highly regarded young players will already be taken.
What follows is a hypothetical team constructed from a pool of players any team would have access to: domestic players drafted outside the first 30 picks. Steamer projections based on a full season of playing time were used to control for the differences in playing time these players might be expected to get on their real teams. Signability may still be of some concern so draft bonuses (as listed on thebaseballcube.com) are included for reference and players are split into arbitration eligible and pre-arb categories if a slightly more expensive upgrade is available. In some cases, your team may have needed to pass up on a free agent signing to avoid losing a first round pick.
All pre-arb team:
C: Austin Barnes (2.2 WAR, LAD) Drafted 9th round, 283rd overall in 2011. $95,000 Bonus.
1B: Rhys Hoskins (3.4 WAR, PHI) Drafted 5th round, 142nd overall in 2014. $349,700 Bonus.
2B: Whit Merrifield (1.9 WAR, KC) Drafted 9th round, 269th overall in 2010. $100,000 Bonus.
3B: Travis Shaw (1.6 WAR, MIL) Drafted 9th round, 292nd overall in 2011. $110,000 Bonus.
SS: Paul DeJong (2.4 WAR, STL) Drafted 4th round, 131st overall in 2015. $200,000 Bonus.
LF: Cody Bellinger (2.7 WAR, LAD) Drafted 4th round, 124th overall in 2013. $700,000 Bonus.
CF: Chris Taylor (2.1 WAR, LAD) Drafted 5th round, 161st overall in 2012. $500,000 Bonus.
RF: Aaron Judge (3.9 WAR, NYY) Drafted 32nd overall in 2013. $1,800,000 Bonus.
SP: Zack Godley (3.4 WAR, ARI) Drafted 10th round, 288th overall in 2013. $35,000 Bonus.
SP: Joe Musgrove (3.4 WAR, PIT) Drafted 46th overall in 2011. $500,000 Bonus.
SP: Tyler Glasnow (3.2 WAR, PIT) Drafted 5th round, 152nd overall in 2011. $600,000 Bonus.
SP: Steven Matz (3.1 WAR, NYM) Drafted 2nd round, 72nd overall in 2009. $895,500 Bonus.
SP: Bryan Mitchell (2.6 WAR, SD) Drafted 16th round, 495th overall in 2009. $800,000 Bonus.
RP: Chad Green (1 WAR, NYY) Drafted 11th round, 336th overall in 2013. $100,000 Bonus.
RP: Edwin Diaz (0.9 WAR, SEA) Drafted 3rd round, 89th overall in 2012. $300,000 Bonus.
RP: A.J. Minter (0.9 WAR, ATL) Drafted 2nd round, 75th overall in 2015. $814,300 Bonus.
RP: James Hoyt (0.8 WAR, HOU) Undrafted, signed in 2013.
RP: Scott Alexander (0.7 WAR, LAD) Drafted 6th round, 179th overall in 2010. $125,000 Bonus.
RP: Drew Steckenrider (0.7 WAR, MIA) Drafted 8th round, 257th overall in 2012. $137,900 Bonus.
RP: Carl Edwards Jr. (0.7 WAR, CHC) Drafted 48th round, 1464th overall in 2011. $50,000 Bonus.
Even assuming a replacement level bench, this team is a wild card contender with a combined 41.6 WAR from the listed players. With a full replacement level team expected to win 48 games, our best guess for this team would be 90 wins. All for a payroll around $15,000,000 and a total of $8,211,900 in bonuses, although you might expect to pay higher bonuses if you had selected some players in higher rounds.
Add in some arbitration-eligible players and you’ve got a real contender;
All under 6 years service time team:
C: J.T. Realmuto (2.4 WAR, MIA) Drafted 3rd round, 104th overall in 2010. $600,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $2,900,000.
1B: Anthony Rizzo (4.4 WAR, CHC) Drafted 6th round, 204th overall in 2007. $325,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $7,000,000.
2B: Brian Dozier (3.5 WAR, MIN) Drafted 8th round, 252nd overall in 2009. $30,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $9,000,000.
3B: Josh Donaldson (5.8 WAR, TOR) Drafted 48th overall in 2007. $652,500 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $23,000,000.
SS: Paul DeJong (2.4 WAR, STL) Drafted 4th round, 131st overall in 2015. $200,000 Bonus.
LF: Aaron Judge (3.9 WAR, NYY) Drafted 32nd overall in 2013. $1,800,000 Bonus.
CF: Kevin Kiermaier (3.7 WAR, TB) Drafted 31st round, 941st overall in 2010. 2018 Salary: $5,500,000.
RF: Mookie Betts (5.3 WAR, BOS) Drafted 5th round, 172nd overall in 2011. $750,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $10,500,000.
SP: Noah Syndergaard (5.8 WAR, NYM) Drafted 38th overall in 2010. $600,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $2,975,000.
SP: Corey Kluber (5.2 WAR, CLE) Drafted 7th round, 134th overall in 2007. $200,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $10,500,000.
SP: Jacob deGrom (4.6 WAR, NYM) Drafted 9th round, 272nd overall in 2010. $95,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $7,400,000.
SP: Robbie Ray (4.5 WAR, ARI) Drafted 12th round, 356th overall in 2010. $799,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $3,950,000.
SP: Chris Archer (4.2 WAR, TB) Drafted 5th round, 161st overall in 2006. $161,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $6,250,000.
RP: Dellin Betances (1.3 WAR, NYY) Drafted 8th round, 254th overall in 2006. $1,000,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $5,100,000.
RP: Ken Giles (1.1 WAR, HOU) Drafted 7th round, 241st overall in 2009. $250,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $4,600,000.
RP: Zach Britton (1 WAR, BAL) Drafted 3rd round, 85th overall in 2006. $435,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $12,000,000.
RP: Chad Green (1 WAR, NYY) Drafted 11th round, 336th overall in 2013. $100,000 Bonus.
RP: Justin Wilson (0.9 WAR, CHC) Drafted 5th round, 144th overall in 2008. $195,000 Bonus. 2018 Salary: $4,250,000.
RP: Edwin Diaz (0.9 WAR, SEA) Drafted 3rd round, 89th overall in 2012. $300,000 Bonus.
RP: A.J. Minter (0.9 WAR, ATL) Drafted 2nd round, 75th overall in 2015. $814,300 Bonus.
This youthful juggernaut combines for 62.8 WAR – 111 wins for the season – with a payroll just under $120,000,000 and a total of $9,300,000 in draft bonuses.
Surely most readers don’t need any additional convincing that drafting and player development is incredibly hard, but the presence of so many late-round picks on this list should be some cause for optimism for fans of teams that leak either the means or desire to sign from the top tier of free agent talent. If you do happen to come across a time machine, congrats on all your future World Series rings.