Emilio Pagan made his debut in 2017 with the Mariners. He impressed somewhat as a 26-year-old rookie, notching a K-BB rate of 24.5% en route to an xFIP- of 93. Not bad. The Athletics traded for him that offseason, whereupon Pagan promptly did much worse. His strikeout rate dropped four points while his walk rate rose three. He also suffered from long-ball-itis and saw his xFIP- climb to a below-average 112.
The Rays then got ahold of him in the three-team Jurickson Profar deal with Texas. Pagan began 2019 in Triple-A but was called up in mid-April when Blake Snell fractured his toe. Three days later, Pagan was sent back down; two days later he was back in the bigs. All he’s done since then is help his team chase a playoff spot.
As the team’s nominal closer, Pagan has accrued 1.4 WAR, which ranks ninth among qualified relievers. Take leverage and innings totals away and his 1.63 WPA/LI ranks fifth. Baseball Prospectus and their DRA-based methodology agree he’s good. Among pitchers with a maximum of 75 innings pitched, Pagan’s 1.7 WARP ranks fifth.
Pagan’s been dominating hitters to the tune of a 30.6% K-BB rate, seventh-highest among qualified relievers. And when batters do put the ball in play against him, they’re not doing much. His .213 xWOBA against is the lowest in the entire sport among pitchers who’ve faced at least 50 batters. Read the rest of this entry »