Author Archive

Hardball Retrospective – The “Original” 1953 Milwaukee Braves

by
June 21, 2015

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, Roy Halladay is listed on the Blue Jays roster for the duration of his career while the Brewers declare Gary Sheffield and the Cardinals claim Mordecai Brown. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Additional information and a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

Assessment

The 1953 Milwaukee Braves         OWAR: 52.2     OWS: 300     OPW%: .664

GM John Quinn acquired 88% (22/25) of the ballplayers on the 1953 Braves roster after assuming the reigns from his father Robert Quinn in 1945. Based on the revised standings the “Original” 1953 Braves secured the National League pennant by a 16-game margin over the Brooklyn Dodgers. Thus began a streak of seven consecutive National League titles while pacing the Senior Circuit in OWAR and OWS.

Eddie Mathews (.302/47/135) established career-bests in home runs, RBI and SLG (.627) during his sophomore year. The slugging third-sacker placed runner-up in the 1953 NL MVP race and led the circuit in round-trippers. Al Dark (.300/23/88) rapped 194 base hits, clubbed 41 doubles and scored 126 runs from the leadoff slot. Johnny Logan slashed 27 two-base hits and registered 100 tallies. Del Crandall walloped 15 dingers and earned the first of eight All-Star invitations. Earl Torgeson aka “The Earl of Snohomish” drove in 64 baserunners while batting .274. Bill Bruton placed fourth in the 1953 NL Rookie of the Year balloting after collecting 14 triples and leading the League with 26 stolen bases.

Mathews is listed as the third-best ballplayer at the hot corner according to Bill James in “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract.” Five teammates join him in the top 100 rankings including Warren Spahn (5th-P), Dark (27th-SS), Logan (39th-SS), Crandall (30th-C) and Bruton (73rd-CF).

LINEUP POS WAR WS
Al Dark LF/SS 3.41 20.61
Johnny Logan SS 3.86 23.8
Eddie Mathews 3B 8.87 38.91
Earl Torgeson 1B 1.77 13.85
Del Crandall C 2.73 16.03
Bill Bruton CF 0.45 13.61
Jack Dittmer 2B -0.95 10.85
Bob Thorpe RF/LF -0.54 0.13
BENCH POS WAR WS
George Crowe 1B 0.2 1.28
Harry Hanebrink 2B 0.15 1.6
Mel Roach 2B -0.03 0
Sibby Sisti 2B -0.04 0.5
Jack Lohrke 2B -0.12 0.08
Gene Verble SS -0.16 0.29
Mike Sandlock C -0.4 1.85

Warren Spahn (23-7, 2.10) flummoxed opposing batsmen as he completed 24 of 32 starts and paced the National League in ERA, victories and WHIP (1.058). Hoyt Wilhelm aka “Old Sarge” provided 7 wins and 15 saves in 68 relief appearances. Returning from two years of military service, Johnny Antonelli delivered a record of 12-12 with a 3.18 ERA.

ROTATION POS WAR WS
Warren Spahn SP 8.46 29.45
Johnny Antonelli SP 1.4 11.32
Don Liddle SP 1.43 9.36
Joey Jay SP 0.62 1.73
BULLPEN POS WAR WS
Hoyt Wilhelm RP 2.23 13.57
Ernie Johnson RP 0.63 6.03
Jerry Lane RP -0.37 0.64
Virgil Jester RP -0.38 0
Vern Bickford SP -0.39 0.72
Dave Cole RP -0.54 0.44

 

The “Original” 1953 Milwaukee Braves roster

NAME POS WAR WS General Manager Scouting Director
Eddie Mathews 3B 8.87 38.91 John Quinn
Warren Spahn SP 8.46 29.45 Bob Quinn
Johnny Logan SS 3.86 23.8 John Quinn
Al Dark SS 3.41 20.61 John Quinn
Del Crandall C 2.73 16.03 John Quinn
Hoyt Wilhelm RP 2.23 13.57 John Quinn
Earl Torgeson 1B 1.77 13.85 John Quinn
Don Liddle SP 1.43 9.36 John Quinn
Johnny Antonelli SP 1.4 11.32 John Quinn
Ernie Johnson RP 0.63 6.03 Bob Quinn
Joey Jay SP 0.62 1.73 John Quinn
Bill Bruton CF 0.45 13.61 John Quinn
George Crowe 1B 0.2 1.28 John Quinn
Harry Hanebrink 2B 0.15 1.6 John Quinn
Mel Roach 2B -0.03 0 John Quinn
Sibby Sisti 2B -0.04 0.5 Bob Quinn
Jack Lohrke 2B -0.12 0.08 John Quinn
Gene Verble SS -0.16 0.29 John Quinn
Jerry Lane RP -0.37 0.64 John Quinn
Virgil Jester RP -0.38 0 John Quinn
Vern Bickford SP -0.39 0.72 John Quinn
Mike Sandlock C -0.4 1.85 John Quinn
Dave Cole RP -0.54 0.44 John Quinn
Bob Thorpe LF -0.54 0.13 John Quinn
Jack Dittmer 2B -0.95 10.85 John Quinn

 

Honorable Mention

The “Original” 1902 Beaneaters         OWAR: 44.1     OWS: 314     OPW%: .580

Vic Willis (27-20, 2.20) shouldered a massive workload, completing 45 of 46 starts and leading the National League with 410 innings pitched and 225 strikeouts. Alas, Boston (81-59) finished three games behind Cincinnati. Togie Pittinger (27-16, 2.52) matched Willis’ win total and registered 36 complete games. Charlie “Piano Legs” Hickman (.361/11/110) led the circuit with 193 hits and 288 total bases. Chick Stahl, Jimmy Collins, Fred Tenney, Patsy Donovan, Kitty Bransfield, Joe Kelley and Dan McGann exceeded the .300 mark in batting average.

The “Original” 1983 Braves    OWAR: 51.0     OWS: 293    OPW%: .568

Dale Murphy (.302/36/121) received his second straight NL MVP award. “Murph” topped the charts in RBI and SLG (.540) while earning the second of five successive Gold Glove Awards. Brett Butler led the League with 13 triples and Glenn Hubbard (.263/12/70) received his lone All-Star nod. Craig McMurtry (15-9, 3.08) merited a runner-up finish in the 1983 NL Rookie of the Year balloting. Larry McWilliams (15-8, 3.25) whiffed 199 batters and set career-bests in virtually every pitching category as he placed fifth in the Cy Young voting.

On Deck

The “Original” 1948 Indians

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – The “Original” 2002 Toronto Blue Jays

by
June 9, 2015

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, Jim Edmonds is listed on the Angels roster for the duration of his career while the Astros declare Rusty Staub and the Athletics claim Lefty Grove. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Additional information and a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

Assessment

The 2002 Toronto Blue Jays         OWAR: 51.4     OWS: 312     OPW%: .572

GM Pat Gillick acquired 65% (35/54) of the ballplayers on the 2002 Blue Jays roster. 43 team members were drafted by the club. Based on the revised standings the “Original” 2002 Blue Jays captured the American League Eastern Division title by nine games over the New York Yankees and topped the Junior Circuit in OWAR and OWS.

The middle of the Blue Jays’ batting order was stacked. Shawn Green (.285/42/114) scored 110 runs and placed fifth in the MVP balloting. Jeff Kent (.313/37/108) laced 42 doubles and recorded a career-best in home runs. Carlos Delgado tallied 103 runs scored and blasted 33 round-trippers in the midst of a ten-year streak with at least 30 home runs per season (1997-2006). John Olerud (.300/22/102) rapped 39 two-base knocks and garnered his second Gold Glove Award. Shannon Stewart contributed a .303 BA and registered 103 tallies from the leadoff spot. Alex S. Gonzalez slashed 27 doubles and clubbed 18 circuit clouts while fellow shortstop Chris Woodward batted .276 with 13 dingers. Vernon Wells produced a .275 BA with 23 four-baggers and 100 ribbies.

Kent placed 48th at the keystone position in “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” and Olerud ranked 53rd among first sackers.

LINEUP POS WAR WS
Shannon Stewart LF 2.37 18.47
Alex Gonzalez SS 2.78 14.36
Shawn Green RF 6.18 32.07
Jeff Kent 2B 6.04 29.93
Carlos Delgado DH/1B 4.76 25.97
John Olerud 1B 4.64 25.92
Vernon Wells CF 0.83 16.7
Greg Myers C 0.57 5.57
Chris Stynes 3B -0.02 3.46
BENCH POS WAR WS
Chris Woodward SS 2.17 11.74
Josh Phelps DH 1.46 9.8
Orlando Hudson 2B 1.17 5.89
Craig Wilson RF 0.95 10.78
Jay Gibbons RF 0.59 11.97
Ryan Thompson LF 0.14 2.84
Felipe Lopez SS 0.08 5.8
Pat Borders DH 0.06 0.36
Abraham Nunez 2B 0.04 4.88
Casey Blake 3B -0.11 0.11
Kevin Cash C -0.14 0.08
Mike Coolbaugh 3B -0.17 0.16
Brent Abernathy 2B -0.44 4.99
Michael Young 2B -0.63 10.72
Cesar Izturis SS -0.68 3.77
Joe Lawrence 2B -0.83 1.48

Roy “Doc” Halladay (19-7, 2.93) led the American League with 239.1 innings pitched and merited the first of eight All-Star invitations. David “Boomer” Wells equaled Halladay’s win-loss record. Billy Koch amassed 11 victories and saved 44 contests while Jose Mesa closed out 45 games with a 2.97 ERA. Steve Karsay (3.26, 12 SV) and Ben Weber (2.54, 7 SV) provided solid relief in the late innings.

ROTATION POS WAR WS
Roy Halladay SP 6.74 21.67
David Wells SP 3.99 14.79
Woody Williams SP 3.2 9.65
Mark Hendrickson SP 1.23 4.01
Chris Carpenter SP 0.41 2.73
BULLPEN POS WAR WS
Steve Karsay RP 2.01 11
Billy Koch RP 1.44 18.37
Ben Weber RP 1.33 10.48
Jose Mesa RP 1.28 12.4
David Weathers RP 1.02 6.68
Mike Timlin RP 1 8.04
Giovanni Carrara RP 0.62 6.77
Kelvim Escobar RP 0.53 9.14
Carlos Almanzar SW 0.24 0.94
Jim Mann RP 0.18 1.02
Jose Silva RP 0.11 1.38
Brian Bowles RP 0.04 1.37
Gary Glover SP 0.03 4.54
Mark Lukasiewicz RP 0 1.17
Aaron Small RP -0.08 0
Pasqual Coco RP -0.13 0
Tom Davey RP -0.36 0.17
Todd Stottlemyre SP -0.38 0
Scott Cassidy RP -0.43 1.67
Mike Smith SP -0.45 0
Bob File RP -0.47 0
Graeme Lloyd RP -0.53 1.89
Pat Hentgen SP -0.54 0
Brandon Lyon SP -0.56 0

 The “Original” 2002 Toronto Blue Jays roster

NAME POS WAR WS General Manager Scouting Director
Roy Halladay SP 6.74 21.67 Gord Ash Bob Engle
Shawn Green RF 6.18 32.07 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Jeff Kent 2B 6.04 29.93 Pat Gillick
Carlos Delgado 1B 4.76 25.97 Pat Gillick
John Olerud 1B 4.64 25.92 Pat Gillick
David Wells SP 3.99 14.79 Pat Gillick
Woody Williams SP 3.2 9.65 Pat Gillick
Alex Gonzalez SS 2.78 14.36 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Shannon Stewart LF 2.37 18.47 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Chris Woodward SS 2.17 11.74 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Steve Karsay RP 2.01 11 Pat Gillick
Josh Phelps DH 1.46 9.8 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
Billy Koch RP 1.44 18.37 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
Ben Weber RP 1.33 10.48 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Jose Mesa RP 1.28 12.4 Pat Gillick
Mark Hendrickson SP 1.23 4.01 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
Orlando Hudson 2B 1.17 5.89 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
David Weathers RP 1.02 6.68 Pat Gillick
Mike Timlin RP 1 8.04 Pat Gillick
Craig Wilson RF 0.95 10.78 Gord Ash Bob Engle
Vernon Wells CF 0.83 16.7 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
Giovanni Carrara RP 0.62 6.77 Pat Gillick
Jay Gibbons RF 0.59 11.97 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
Greg Myers C 0.57 5.57 Pat Gillick
Kelvim Escobar RP 0.53 9.14 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Chris Carpenter SP 0.41 2.73 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Carlos Almanzar SW 0.24 0.94 Pat Gillick
Jim Mann RP 0.18 1.02 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Ryan Thompson LF 0.14 2.84 Pat Gillick
Jose Silva RP 0.11 1.38 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Felipe Lopez SS 0.08 5.8 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
Pat Borders DH 0.06 0.36 Pat Gillick
Brian Bowles RP 0.04 1.37 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Abraham Nunez 2B 0.04 4.88 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Gary Glover SP 0.03 4.54 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Mark Lukasiewicz RP 0 1.17 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Chris Stynes 3B -0.02 3.46 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Aaron Small RP -0.08 0 Pat Gillick
Casey Blake 3B -0.11 0.11 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
Pasqual Coco RP -0.13 0 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Kevin Cash C -0.14 0.08 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
Mike Coolbaugh 3B -0.17 0.16 Pat Gillick
Tom Davey RP -0.36 0.17 Pat Gillick Bob Engle
Todd Stottlemyre SP -0.38 0 Pat Gillick
Scott Cassidy RP -0.43 1.67 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
Brent Abernathy 2B -0.44 4.99 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
Mike Smith SP -0.45 0 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
Bob File RP -0.47 0 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
Graeme Lloyd RP -0.53 1.89 Pat Gillick
Pat Hentgen SP -0.54 0 Pat Gillick
Brandon Lyon SP -0.56 0 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
Michael Young 2B -0.63 10.72 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
Cesar Izturis SS -0.68 3.77 Gord Ash Tim Wilken
Joe Lawrence 2B -0.83 1.48 Gord Ash Tim Wilken

Honorable Mention

The “Original” 2001 Blue Jays           OWAR: 51.5     OWS: 297     OPW%: .547

Toronto outpaced Boston to claim the A.L. East by a four-game margin. Shawn Green dialed long distance 49 times and plated 125 baserunners. John Olerud (.302/21/95) earned his second All-Star nod. Carlos Delgado launched 39 moon-shots and Jeff Kent drilled a career-high 49 two-baggers.

On Deck

The “Original” 1953 Braves

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – The “Original” 2005 Los Angeles Angels

by
May 28, 2015

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, Roy Halladay is listed on the Blue Jays roster for the duration of his career while the Braves declare Joe Torre and the Brewers claim Prince Fielder. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Additional information and a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

Assessment

The 2005 Los Angeles Angels      OWAR: 48.2     OWS: 309     OPW%: .560

GM Bill Bavasi acquired 43% (17/39) of the ballplayers on the 2005 Angels roster. 32 team members were drafted by the club. Based on the revised standings the “Original” 2005 Angels battled the Athletics down to the wire as Oakland seized the pennant by a lone game. The Halos earned the Wild Card entry as a consolation prize.

Jim Edmonds (.263/29/89) anchored the third slot in the lineup and played flawless defense in center field to earn his eighth Gold Glove Award. Troy Glaus manned the hot corner and batted cleanup for the Halos, thumping 37 round-trippers and knocking in 97 baserunners. Bengie Molina supplied a career-high .295 batting average along with 15 jacks and 69 ribbies. Darin Erstad triggered the offense with 33 two-base hits from the leadoff slot.  Garret Anderson (.283/17/96) cracked 34 doubles and merited his third All-Star selection. Eduardo Perez (.255/11/28) and Mark Sweeney (.294/8/40) provided additional power potential while platooning as the designated hitters.

LINEUP POS WAR WS
Darin Erstad 1B 0.53 14.21
Damion Easley 2B 0.98 8.91
Jim Edmonds CF 6.29 25.6
Troy Glaus 3B 3.11 22.95
Garret Anderson LF 0.33 13.54
Bengie Molina C 2.4 16.09
Mark Sweeney DH/1B 1.61 10.05
Orlando Palmeiro RF/LF 0.65 5.6
Alfredo Amezaga SS/3B -0.02 0.08
BENCH POS WAR WS
Aaron Guiel CF 0.6 3.37
Eduardo Perez 1B 0.57 5.98
Casey Kotchman DH 0.48 4.35
Dallas McPherson 3B 0.42 5.15
Jamie Burke 1B -0.01 0
Jeff Mathis C -0.01 0.09
Trent Durrington 3B -0.06 0
Todd Greene C -0.11 1.88
Robb Quinlan 3B -0.14 2.26

John Lackey compiled a record of 14-5 with a 3.44 ERA and a personal-best 199 strikeouts. Jarrod Washburn fashioned a 3.20 ERA but failed to earn a decision in 13 of his 29 starts. Ervin Santana accrued 12 victories in his rookie campaign despite an ERA of 4.65.

Francisco J. Rodriguez (2.67, 45 SV) captained the Halos’ sensational bullpen. “K-Rod” whiffed 91 batsmen in 67.1 innings. Roberto M. Hernandez (8-6, 2.58) and Scot Shields (10-11, 2.75) locked down the late-inning threats. Matt Wise contributed a 3.36 ERA and a WHIP of 0.964 to round out the relief corps along with Bobby Jenks (50 K’s in 39.1 IP) and Scott Schoenewis (3-4, 3.32).

ROTATION POS WAR WS
Jarrod Washburn SP 4.34 13.76
John Lackey SP 4.3 16.12
Ervin Santana SP 0.8 6.51
Chris Bootcheck SP 0.4 1.46
Ramon Ortiz SP 0.01 4.02
BULLPEN POS WAR WS
Francisco Rodriguez RP 2.06 13.83
Roberto Hernandez RP 2.31 9.39
Scot Shields RP 1.58 13.3
Matt Wise RP 1.04 6.19
Scott Schoeneweis RP 0.77 5.47
Bobby Jenks RP 0.6 5.71
Matt Perisho RP 0.46 1.72
Brian Cooper SW 0.4 1.46
Shigetoshi Hasegawa RP 0.09 3.5
Greg Jones RP -0.14 0
Seth Etherton SP -0.21 0
Joe Saunders SP -0.21 0
Brian Anderson SP -0.33 0
Troy Percival RP -0.4 1.68
Jake Woods RP -0.47 0.77
Pedro Liriano RP -0.6 0

 

The “Original” 2005 Los Angeles Angels roster

 

NAME POS WAR WS General Manager Scouting Director
Jim Edmonds CF 6.29 25.6 Mike Port Bob Fontaine Jr.
Jarrod Washburn SP 4.34 13.76 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
John Lackey SP 4.3 16.12 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
Troy Glaus 3B 3.11 22.95 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
Bengie Molina C 2.4 16.09 Dan O’Brien Bob Fontaine Jr.
Roberto Hernandez RP 2.31 9.39 Mike Port Larry Himes
Francisco Rodriguez RP 2.06 13.83 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
Mark Sweeney 1B 1.61 10.05 Dan O’Brien Bob Fontaine Jr.
Scot Shields RP 1.58 13.3 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
Matt Wise RP 1.04 6.19 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
Damion Easley 2B 0.98 8.91 Mike Port Bob Fontaine Jr.
Ervin Santana SP 0.8 6.51 Bill Stoneman Donny Rowland
Scott Schoeneweis RP 0.77 5.47 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
Orlando Palmeiro LF 0.65 5.6 Dan O’Brien Bob Fontaine Jr.
Aaron Guiel CF 0.6 3.37 Dan O’Brien Bob Fontaine Jr.
Bobby Jenks RP 0.6 5.71 Bill Stoneman Donny Rowland
Eduardo Perez 1B 0.57 5.98 Dan O’Brien Bob Fontaine Jr.
Darin Erstad 1B 0.53 14.21 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
Casey Kotchman DH 0.48 4.35 Bill Stoneman Donny Rowland
Matt Perisho RP 0.46 1.72 Dan O’Brien Bob Fontaine Jr.
Dallas McPherson 3B 0.42 5.15 Bill Stoneman Donny Rowland
Brian Cooper SW 0.4 1.46 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
Chris Bootcheck SP 0.4 1.46 Bill Stoneman Donny Rowland
Garret Anderson LF 0.33 13.54 Mike Port Bob Fontaine Jr.
Shigetoshi Hasegawa RP 0.09 3.5 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
Ramon Ortiz SP 0.01 4.02 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
Jamie Burke 1B -0.01 0 Dan O’Brien Bob Fontaine Jr.
Jeff Mathis C -0.01 0.09 Bill Stoneman Donny Rowland
Alfredo Amezaga 3B -0.02 0.08 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
Trent Durrington 3B -0.06 0 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
Todd Greene C -0.11 1.88 Dan O’Brien Bob Fontaine Jr.
Greg Jones RP -0.14 0 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
Robb Quinlan 3B -0.14 2.26 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
Seth Etherton SP -0.21 0 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.
Joe Saunders SP -0.21 0 Bill Stoneman Donny Rowland
Brian Anderson SP -0.33 0 Dan O’Brien Bob Fontaine Jr.
Troy Percival RP -0.4 1.68 Mike Port Bob Fontaine Jr.
Jake Woods RP -0.47 0.77 Bill Stoneman Donny Rowland
Pedro Liriano RP -0.6 0 Bill Bavasi Bob Fontaine Jr.

Honorable Mention

The “Original” 1997 Angels               OWAR: 40.3     OWS: 313     OPW%: .547

Los Angeles outdistanced Seattle by a seven-game margin, taking the Western Division title with a record of 89-73. Tim “Kingfish” Salmon (.296/33/129) recorded a personal-best in RBI. Damion Easley joined the 20-20 club as he swiped 28 bases and belted 22 long balls while scoring 97 runs. Roberto M. Hernandez registered 10 victories and saved 31 contests with a 2.45 ERA. Darin Erstad posted a .299 BA, tagged 34 doubles and pilfered 23 bags. Jason Dickson (13-9, 4.23) made his lone All-Star appearance and finished third in the 1997 A.L. Rookie of the Year balloting.

On Deck

The “Original” 2002 Blue Jays

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – The “Original” 2012 Los Angeles Dodgers

by
May 16, 2015

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, Frank E. Thomas is listed on the White Sox roster for the duration of his career while the Yankees declare Fred McGriff and the Twins claim Rod Carew. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The print edition will be available soon. Additional information and a discussion forum are available at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

Assessment

The 2012 Los Angeles Dodgers      OWAR: 47.1     OWS: 289     OPW%: .546

Five General Managers shaped the roster of the 2012 Dodgers over a 24-year period. Henry Blanco (1989) and Miguel Cairo (1990) were acquired before Paco Rodriguez was born! 37 of the 49 team members were selected through the Amateur Draft process. Notable exceptions (signed as amateur free agents) include Hiroki Kuroda, Adrian Beltre and Carlos Santana. Based on the revised standings the “Original” 2012 Dodgers edged the Diamondbacks by two games to secure the National League Western Division crown.

Adrian Beltre paced Los Angeles with 28 Win Shares, collected his fourth Gold Glove Award and posted a .321 BA with 36 round-trippers. Three backstops made significant contributions to the Dodgers in 2012 as A.J. Ellis, Russell Martin and Carlos Santana combined for 52 circuit clouts. Matt “The Bison” Kemp batted .303 with 23 jacks in an injury-shortened campaign and first-sacker Paul Konerko swatted 26 big-flies.

LINEUP POS WAR WS
Alejandro DeAza LF/CF 2.78 17.96
A. J. Ellis C 3.86 21.15
Adrian Beltre 3B 4.16 28.4
Matt Kemp CF 2.92 20.41
Paul Konerko 1B 2.24 18.69
Shane Victorino RF/LF 2.31 18.05
Tony Abreu 2B -0.07 1.24
Dee Gordon SS -0.36 3.86
BENCH POS WAR WS
Russell Martin C 3.26 11.15
Carlos Santana C 3.12 19.28
Justin Ruggiano CF 2.24 12.17
David Ross C 1.28 7.63
Franklin Gutierrez CF 0.9 4.56
Xavier Paul LF 0.34 2.91
Trayvon Robinson LF 0.32 2.54
Elian Herrera LF 0.28 4.7
Ivan De Jesus 2B -0.08 0.71
Jason Repko CF -0.13 0.2
Jerry Sands LF -0.15 0.11
Scott Van Slyke RF -0.31 0.39
Koyie Hill C -0.33 0.17
Blake DeWitt 2B -0.36 0.21
Henry Blanco C -0.4 1.46
Josh Bell 3B -0.45 0.25
Miguel Cairo 1B -1.08 1.01
James Loney 1B -1.28 4.62

Clayton Kershaw (14-9, 2.53) led the National League in ERA and WHIP (1.023) while placing runner-up in the Cy Young balloting. Hiroki Kuroda notched a career-best 16 victories along with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.165 WHIP. The bullpen excelled as Jonathan Broxton, Joel Hanrahan and Kenley Jansen saved a collective 90 games.

ROTATION POS WAR WS
Clayton Kershaw SP 6.1 19.56
Hiroki Kuroda SP 5.38 16.72
Eric Stults SP 1.71 6.82
Edwin Jackson SP 1.64 8.43
Chad Billingsley SP 1.53 8.3
BULLPEN POS WAR WS
Kenley Jansen RP 1.52 13.48
Jonathan Broxton RP 1.17 10.11
Joel Hanrahan RP 1.16 10.39
Wesley Wright RP 0.84 4.61
Javy Guerra RP 0.77 5.1
Steve Johnson SP 1.53 5.08
Nathan Eovaldi SP 0.7 3.86
James McDonald SP 0.64 7.12
Scott Elbert RP 0.63 3.36
Ted Lilly SP 0.3 3.36
Paco Rodriguez RP 0.2 0.65
Josh Lindblom RP 0.11 4.07
Bryan Morris RP 0.03 0.36
Josh Wall RP -0.05 0.34
Rubby De La Rosa RP -0.17 0
Shawn Tolleson RP -0.31 1.7
Takashi Saito RP -0.83 0
Cory Wade RP -1.18 0

The “Original” 2012 Los Angeles Dodgers roster

NAME POS WAR WS General Manager Scouting DIrector
Clayton Kershaw SP 6.1 19.56 Ned Colletti Logan White
Hiroki Kuroda SP 5.38 16.72 Ned Colletti Tim Hallgren
Adrian Beltre 3B 4.16 28.4 Fred Claire Terry Reynolds
A. J. Ellis C 3.86 21.15 Dan Evans Logan White
Russell Martin C 3.26 11.15 Dan Evans Logan White
Carlos Santana C 3.12 19.28 Paul DePodesta Logan White
Matt Kemp CF 2.92 20.41 Dan Evans Logan White
Alejandro De Aza CF 2.78 17.96 Kevin Malone Ed Creech
Shane Victorino LF 2.31 18.05 Kevin Malone Ed Creech
Paul Konerko 1B 2.24 18.69 Fred Claire Terry Reynolds
Justin Ruggiano CF 2.24 12.17 Paul DePodesta Logan White
Eric Stults SP 1.71 6.82 Dan Evans Logan White
Edwin Jackson SP 1.64 8.43 Kevin Malone Ed Creech
Chad Billingsley SP 1.53 8.3 Dan Evans Logan White
Steve Johnson SP 1.53 5.08 Paul DePodesta Logan White
Kenley Jansen RP 1.52 13.48 Paul DePodesta Logan White
David Ross C 1.28 7.63 Fred Claire Terry Reynolds
Jonathan Broxton RP 1.17 10.11 Dan Evans Logan White
Joel Hanrahan RP 1.16 10.39 Kevin Malone Ed Creech
Franklin Gutierrez CF 0.9 4.56 Kevin Malone Ed Creech
Wesley Wright RP 0.84 4.61 Dan Evans Logan White
Javy Guerra RP 0.77 5.1 Paul DePodesta Logan White
Nathan Eovaldi SP 0.7 3.86 Ned Colletti Tim Hallgren
James McDonald SP 0.64 7.12 Dan Evans Logan White
Scott Elbert RP 0.63 3.36 Paul DePodesta Logan White
Xavier Paul LF 0.34 2.91 Dan Evans Logan White
Trayvon Robinson LF 0.32 2.54 Paul DePodesta Logan White
Ted Lilly SP 0.3 3.36 Fred Claire Terry Reynolds
Elian Herrera LF 0.28 4.7 Dan Evans Logan White
Paco Rodriguez RP 0.2 0.65 Ned Colletti Logan White
Josh Lindblom RP 0.11 4.07 Ned Colletti Tim Hallgren
Bryan Morris RP 0.03 0.36 Ned Colletti Logan White
Josh Wall RP -0.05 0.34 Paul DePodesta Logan White
Tony Abreu 2B -0.07 1.24 Dan Evans Logan White
Ivan De Jesus 2B -0.08 0.71 Paul DePodesta Logan White
Jason Repko CF -0.13 0.2 Kevin Malone Ed Creech
Jerry Sands LF -0.15 0.11 Ned Colletti Tim Hallgren
Rubby De La Rosa RP -0.17 0 Ned Colletti Tim Hallgren
Scott Van Slyke RF -0.31 0.39 Paul DePodesta Logan White
Shawn Tolleson RP -0.31 1.7 Ned Colletti Logan White
Koyie Hill C -0.33 0.17 Kevin Malone Ed Creech
Blake DeWitt 2B -0.36 0.21 Paul DePodesta Logan White
Dee Gordon SS -0.36 3.86 Ned Colletti Tim Hallgren
Henry Blanco C -0.4 1.46 Fred Claire Ben Wade
Josh Bell 3B -0.45 0.25 Paul DePodesta Logan White
Takashi Saito RP -0.83 0 Ned Colletti Logan White
Miguel Cairo 1B -1.08 1.01 Fred Claire Ben Wade
Cory Wade RP -1.18 0 Paul DePodesta Logan White
James Loney 1B -1.28 4.62 Dan Evans Logan White

Honorable Mention

The “Original” 1973 Dodgers             OWAR: 45.9     OWS: 308     OPW%: .552

Jack Billingham (19-10, 3.04), Bill Singer (20-14, 3.22) and Don Sutton (18-10, 2.42) established a formidable rotation for the L.A. crew. Joe Ferguson (.263/25/88) topped the squad with 26 Win Shares. Ron Cey smashed 15 long balls and knocked in 80 runs in his rookie campaign. Los Angeles tied Cincinnati for second place with a record of 89-73 as Houston claimed the Western Division title with 92 victories.

On Deck

The “Original” 2005 Angels

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – The “Original” 1992 Chicago White Sox

by
May 4, 2015

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, John Smoltz is listed on the Tigers roster for the duration of his career while the Rockies declare Matt Holliday and the Royals claim Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The print edition is coming soon. Additional information and a discussion forum are available at TuataraSoftware.com.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

Assessment

The 1992 Chicago White Sox         OWAR: 48.7     OWS: 278     OPW%: .547

GM Roland Hemond acquired 48% (12 of 25) of the ballplayers on the 1992 White Sox roster. Larry Himes’ brief term as the GM of the Pale Hose yielded a bumper crop of future stars including Frank E. Thomas, Robin Ventura, Jack McDowell and Alex Fernandez. 20 of the 25 team members were selected through the Amateur Draft process. Based on the revised standings the “Original” 1992 White Sox outpaced the Athletics by a five-game margin in the American League Western Division race.

Thomas (.323/24/115) paced the Junior Circuit with 46 doubles, 122 walks and a .439 OBP. The “Big Hurt” was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2014 after posting a .301 lifetime batting average with 521 home runs and 1704 RBI. Ventura (.282/16/93) ripped 38 two-base hits and earned his second of six Gold Glove Awards. Brian Downing (.407 OBP) and Harold Baines platooned as the Sox’ designated hitter.

Thomas ranks tenth among first basemen in “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract.” Ventura (22nd-3B), Downing (38th-LF) and Baines (42nd-RF) also placed in the top 100 at their respective positions.

LINEUP POS WAR WS
Brian Downing DH 1.85 13.83
Randy Velarde SS 1.89 12.15
Frank Thomas 1B 5.99 36.23
Robin Ventura 3B 5.27 28.53
Ron Karkovice C 2.58 12.13
Daryl Boston LF 1.18 10.4
Tim Hulett 2B/3B 0.65 4.19
Cecil Espy RF 0.06 3.81
John Cangelosi CF/LF -0.16 0.81
BENCH POS WAR WS
Craig Grebeck SS 2.17 9.71
Harold Baines DH 0.44 12.52
Mike Maksudian 1B -0.04 0
Matt Merullo C -0.38 0.25

Doug Drabek (15-11, 2.77) fashioned a WHIP of 1.060 and whiffed a career-high 177 batsmen. Jack McDowell notched 20 victories with a 3.18 ERA and finished fifth in the 1992 American League Cy Young balloting. “Black Jack” claimed the award in the subsequent campaign with a 22-10 mark. Bobby Thigpen struggled in the closer’s role (22 SV, 4.75) and eventually relinquished the title to Scott Radinsky (15 SV, 2.73). Rich “Goose” Gossage rates 37th among pitchers in the “NBJHBA”.

ROTATION POS WAR WS
Doug Drabek SP 5.18 19.31
Jack McDowell SP 5.17 19.77
Alex Fernandez SP 0.21 6.39
Bob Wickman SP 0.43 2.91
Buddy Groom SP -0.57 0
BULLPEN POS WAR WS
Scott Radinsky RP 0.49 6.98
Rich Gossage RP 0.4 2.33
Bobby Thigpen RP -0.56 3.07
Donn Pall RP -1.17 2.17
Vicente Palacios RP/SP 0.08 1.92
Tony Menendez RP 0.09 0.68
Pedro Borbon RP -0.04 0

The “Original” 1992 Chicago White Sox roster

NAME POS WAR WS General Manager Scouting DIrector
Frank Thomas 1B 5.99 36.23 Larry Himes Al Goldis
Robin Ventura 3B 5.27 28.53 Larry Himes
Doug Drabek SP 5.18 19.31 Roland Hemond
Jack McDowell SP 5.17 19.77 Larry Himes
Ron Karkovice C 2.58 12.13 Roland Hemond
Craig Grebeck SS 2.17 9.71 Ken Harrelson
Randy Velarde SS 1.89 12.15 Roland Hemond
Brian Downing DH 1.85 13.83 Ed Short
Daryl Boston LF 1.18 10.4 Roland Hemond
Tim Hulett 3B 0.65 4.19 Roland Hemond
Scott Radinsky RP 0.49 6.98 Ken Harrelson
Harold Baines DH 0.44 12.52 Roland Hemond
Bob Wickman SP 0.43 2.91 Larry Himes Al Goldis
Rich Gossage RP 0.4 2.33 Ed Short
Alex Fernandez SP 0.21 6.39 Larry Himes Al Goldis
Tony Menendez RP 0.09 0.68 Roland Hemond
Vicente Palacios SP 0.08 1.92 Roland Hemond
Cecil Espy RF 0.06 3.81 Roland Hemond
Mike Maksudian 1B -0.04 0 Larry Himes
Pedro Borbon RP -0.04 0 Larry Himes
John Cangelosi LF -0.16 0.81 Roland Hemond
Matt Merullo C -0.38 0.25 Ken Harrelson
Bobby Thigpen RP -0.56 3.07 Roland Hemond
Buddy Groom SP -0.57 0 Larry Himes
Donn Pall RP -1.17 2.17 Roland Hemond

Honorable Mention

The “Original” 2006 White Sox          OWAR: 45.0     OWS: 293     OPW%: .533

Chicago captured the American League Central division title by 5 games over Cleveland. “Big Hurt” rebounded from two sub-par campaigns to swat 39 big-flies and drive in 114 runs. Mike Cameron clubbed 22 round-trippers, pilfered 25 bags and claimed his third Gold Glove Award. Joe Crede established personal-bests with 30 jacks, 94 ribbies and a .283 BA. Likewise second baseman Ray Durham set career-highs in home runs (26) and RBI (93). Carlos “El Caballo” Lee slugged 37 circuit clouts and plated 116 baserunners. Magglio Ordonez contributed a .298 BA with 24 dingers and 104 ribbies.

On Deck

The “Original” 2012 Dodgers

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – The “Original” 1924 Washington Senators

by
April 21, 2015

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, Frank Robinson is listed on the Reds roster for the duration of his career while the Rangers claim Ivan Rodriguez and the Red Sox declare Jeff Bagwell. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The print edition is coming soon. Additional information and a discussion forum are available at TuataraSoftware.com.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

Assessment

The 1924 Washington Senators   OWAR: 43.1     OWS: 287     OPW%: .615

Based on the revised standings the “Original” 1924 Senators obliterated the competition with the Tigers finishing a distant 13 games in arrears. Walter “Big Train” Johnson, approaching the final stop in his 21-year career, continued to blow smoke past American League batsmen. He whiffed the most batters in the Junior Circuit for the twelfth time and furnished a 23-7 mark with the best ERA (2.72) and WHIP (1.116) in the League. Johnson received the MVP Award for his efforts in ’24 and the future Hall-of-Famer retired three years later with 417 victories, a 2.17 ERA and a 1.061 WHIP along with 3,509 strikeouts and the most shutouts in Major League history (110). Johnson ranks first among pitchers in “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract”.

Jack Bentley bolstered the Washington pitching corps, delivering 16 victories against 5 losses. Firpo Marberry split time between the rotation and bullpen, notching 11 wins and saving 15 contests (although saves were not officially tabulated until 1969).

ROTATION POS WAR WS
Walter Johnson SP 7.02 28.65
Jack Bentley SP 1.96 11.78
Firpo Marberry SP 1.48 17.72
Joe Martina SP 0.35 5.74
BULLPEN POS WAR WS
Ted Wingfield RP 0.67 2.54
By Speece RP -0.25 3.52
Slim McGrew SP -0.27 0.32
Paul Zahniser SP -0.28 3.72

Goose Goslin (.344/12/129) topped the American League leader boards in RBI while recording 199 hits and 100 runs. The future Hall of Famer surpassed the century mark in ribbies 11 times and recorded a .316 lifetime batting average. Sam Rice batted .334 with 106 runs scored and 39 two-baggers while producing a League-best 216 base hits. A .322 career hitter, Rice concluded his career only 13 hits shy of 3,000.

Charlie Jamieson rapped 213 safeties and posted a personal-best .359 BA after leading the Junior Circuit in the previous campaign with 222 knocks. First-sacker Joe Judge clubbed 38 two-base hits and delivered a .324 BA. Goslin rated 16th among left fielders in the “NBJHBA”. Rice (33rd-RF), Judge (44th-1B) and Bucky Harris (70th-2B) also placed in the top 100 at their respective positions.

LINEUP POS WAR WS
Charlie Jamieson CF/LF 3.09 19.11
Sam Rice RF 3.65 23.99
Goose Goslin LF 5.69 28.91
Joe Judge 1B 2.12 19.08
Ossie Bluege 3B 0.72 10.42
Bucky Harris 2B 0.32 13.31
Eddie Ainsmith C 0.11 0.45
Howie Shanks SS -0.02 5.21
BENCH POS WAR WS
Frank Brower 1B 1.05 5.27
Irish Meusel LF 0.98 16.78
Doc Prothro 3B 0.9 5.89
Bing Miller RF 0.83 13.65
Earl McNeely CF 0.3 5.84
Carl East RF 0.09 0.36
Ike Davis SS 0.02 0.35
Bennie Tate C -0.02 0.64
Carr Smith RF -0.13 0.04
Tommy Taylor 3B -0.13 0.85
Showboat Fisher RF -0.14 0.4
Pinky Hargrave C -0.35 0.21
Mule Shirley 1B -0.5 0.34
Frank Ellerbe 3B -0.9 2.19

The “Original” 1924 Washington Senators roster

NAME POS WAR WS General Manager
Walter Johnson SP 7.02 28.65 Thomas Noyes
Goose Goslin LF 5.69 28.91 Clark Griffith
Sam Rice RF 3.65 23.99 Clark Griffith
Charlie Jamieson LF 3.09 19.11 Clark Griffith
Joe Judge 1B 2.12 19.08 Clark Griffith
Jack Bentley SP 1.96 11.78 Clark Griffith
Firpo Marberry SP 1.48 17.72 Clark Griffith
Frank Brower 1B 1.05 5.27 Clark Griffith
Irish Meusel LF 0.98 16.78 Clark Griffith
Doc Prothro 3B 0.9 5.89 Clark Griffith
Bing Miller RF 0.83 13.65 Clark Griffith
Ossie Bluege 3B 0.72 10.42 Clark Griffith
Ted Wingfield RP 0.67 2.54 Clark Griffith
Joe Martina SP 0.35 5.74 Clark Griffith
Bucky Harris 2B 0.32 13.31 Clark Griffith
Earl McNeely CF 0.3 5.84 Clark Griffith
Eddie Ainsmith C 0.11 0.45 Thomas Noyes
Carl East RF 0.09 0.36 Clark Griffith
Ike Davis SS 0.02 0.35 Clark Griffith
Howie Shanks SS -0.02 5.21 Thomas Noyes
Bennie Tate C -0.02 0.64 Clark Griffith
Carr Smith RF -0.13 0.04 Clark Griffith
Tommy Taylor 3B -0.13 0.85 Clark Griffith
Showboat Fisher RF -0.14 0.4 Clark Griffith
By Speece RP -0.25 3.52 Clark Griffith
Slim McGrew SP -0.27 0.32 Clark Griffith
Paul Zahniser SP -0.28 3.72 Clark Griffith
Pinky Hargrave C -0.35 0.21 Clark Griffith
Mule Shirley 1B -0.5 0.34 Clark Griffith
Frank Ellerbe 3B -0.9 2.19 Clark Griffith

Honorable Mention

The “Original” 1915 Senators             OWAR: 49.1     OWS: 272     OPW%: .565

“Big Train” Johnson (27-13, 1.55) completed 35 of 39 starts while leading the American League in wins, WHIP (0.933), innings pitched, shutouts and strikeouts. The rotation was supplemented by Doc Ayers (14-9, 2.21) and Bert Gallia (17-11, 2.29). Clyde “Deerfoot” Milan swiped 40 bags and Tom Long legged out 25 triples at the top of the lineup.

The “Original” 1965 Twins                 OWAR: 46.0     OWS: 280     OPW%: .644

Zoilo Versalles topped the leader boards with 126 tallies, 45 doubles, 12 triples and 308 total bases to capture the 1965 A.L. MVP Award. Teammate Tony Oliva (.321/16/98) finished runner-up in the MVP race and collected his second batting title. Bob Allison, Jimmie Hall and Harmon Killebrew slammed at least 20 circuit clouts apiece. Jim Kaat (18-11, 2.83) anchored the starting staff and Ted Abernathy led the League with 31 saves and 84 relief appearances.

On Deck

The “Original” 1992 White Sox

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – The “Original” 1999 Texas Rangers

by
April 11, 2015

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, Fergie Jenkins is listed on the Phillies roster for the duration of his career while the Pirates claim Barry Bonds and the Rays declare Carl Crawford. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The print edition is coming soon. Additional information and a discussion forum are available at TuataraSoftware.com.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

Assessment

The 1999 Texas Rangers         OWAR: 50.4     OWS: 284     OPW%: .512

GM Tom Grieve acquired 79% (38 of 48) of the ballplayers on the 1999 Rangers roster. 38 of the 48 team members were selected through the Amateur Draft process. Based on the revised standings the “Original” 1999 Rangers placed six games behind the Mariners in the American League Western Division race. Texas (83-79) claimed the Wild Card by a one-game margin over Chicago and Kansas City.

Perennial All-Star backstop Ivan Rodriguez enhanced his trophy case with the 1999 A.L. MVP award. “Pudge” produced a .332 BA while notching career-bests in home runs (35), RBI (113), runs scored (116), base hits (199) and stolen bases (25). Rodriguez collected 13 Gold Glove Awards including 10 in consecutive seasons (1992-2001). “Slammin’” Sammy Sosa launched 63 moon-shots, drove in 141 baserunners and registered 114 tallies. Juan “Igor” Gonzalez belted 39 round-trippers, knocked in 128 runs and delivered a .328 BA after an MVP season in the previous campaign.

Fernando Tatis (.298/34/107) enjoyed a career year over at the hot corner, scoring 104 runs and swiping 21 bags. Rusty Greer clubbed 41 doubles, 20 big-flies and plated 101 baserunners while eclipsing the .300 mark for the fourth successive season. Rich Aurilia (.281/22/80) and Mike Stanley (.281/19/72) supplied additional thump towards the bottom of the lineup. Warren Morris parlayed a .288 BA and 15 long balls into a third-place finish in the Rookie of the Year balloting.

Rodriguez slots into 13th place in “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” among backstops. He certainly elevated his ranking after playing ten additional years following the publication of NBJHBA in 2001. Right fielders Sosa and Gonzalez are listed in 45th and 52th place, respectively.

LINEUP POS WAR WS
Warren Morris 2B 1.71 15.4
Ivan Rodriguez C 5.22 28.63
Fernando Tatis 3B 5.05 23.74
Sammy Sosa RF 4.98 26.64
Juan Gonzalez DH/RF 2.88 24.42
Rich Aurilia SS 3.06 18.11
Rusty Greer LF 2.32 21.03
Mike Stanley 1B 1.82 13.67
Terrell Lowery CF -0.17 3.21
BENCH POS WAR WS
Rey Sanchez SS 2.59 11.29
Jose Hernandez SS 2.3 16.33
Dean Palmer 3B 1.04 16.71
Hanley Frias SS 0.22 4.42
Edwin Diaz 2B 0.17 0.62
Kevin L. Brown C 0.12 0.58
Jon Shave SS 0.09 1.98
Bill Haselman C -0.04 3.84
Jeff Frye 2B -0.13 2.35
Ruben Mateo CF -0.26 1.9
Kelly Dransfeldt SS -0.26 0.8
Chad Kreuter C -0.58 3.51

Kevin J. Brown, the undisputed ace of the Texas rotation, compiled a record of 18-9 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.066 WHIP and 221 strikeouts. The balance of the starting staff submitted sub-par efforts in contrast to their career norms. Jeff Zimmerman (9-3, 2.36) fashioned a 0.833 WHIP and received an invitation to the Mid-Summer Classic during his rookie campaign.

ROTATION POS WAR WS
Kevin J. Brown SP 5.54 19.92
Darren Oliver SP 3.94 12.45
Rick Helling SP 3.78 12.52
Kenny Rogers SP 2.97 11.57
Wilson Alvarez SP 1.89 9.95
BULLPEN POS WAR WS
Jeff Zimmerman RP 3.67 14.64
Mike Venafro RP 1.19 7.36
Mark Petkovsek RP 0.84 9.49
Terry Mathews RP 0.31 2.54
Danny Kolb RP 0.13 1.9
Brian Bohanon SP 1.63 9.68
Ryan Dempster SP 1.45 6.98
Jim Brower SP 0.42 1.87
Robb Nen RP 0.07 7.89
Danny Patterson RP -0.08 2.64
Mike Cather RP -0.17 0
Corey Lee RP -0.2 0
Jonathan Johnson RP -0.26 0
Bobby Witt SP -0.28 4.52
Billy Taylor RP -0.3 5.54
Dan Smith SP -0.34 1.73
Tony Fossas RP -0.39 0
Ryan Glynn SP -0.42 0
Scott Eyre RP -0.66 0
Doug Davis RP -0.66 0
Julio Santana SP -1 0.17
Matt Whiteside RP -1.1 0

The “Original” 1999 Texas Rangers roster

NAME POS WAR WS General Manager Scouting Director
Kevin Brown SP 5.54 19.92 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Ivan Rodriguez C 5.22 28.63 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Fernando Tatis 3B 5.05 23.74 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Sammy Sosa RF 4.98 26.64 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Darren Oliver SP 3.94 12.45 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Rick Helling SP 3.78 12.52 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Jeff Zimmerman RP 3.67 14.64 Doug Melvin Chuck McMichael
Rich Aurilia SS 3.06 18.11 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Kenny Rogers SP 2.97 11.57 Eddie Robinson Joe Klein
Juan Gonzalez RF 2.88 24.42 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Rey Sanchez SS 2.59 11.29 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Rusty Greer LF 2.32 21.03 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Jose Hernandez SS 2.3 16.33 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Wilson Alvarez SP 1.89 9.95 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Mike Stanley 1B 1.82 13.67 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Warren Morris 2B 1.71 15.4 Doug Melvin
Brian Bohanon SP 1.63 9.68 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Ryan Dempster SP 1.45 6.98 Doug Melvin Sandy Johnson
Mike Venafro RP 1.19 7.36 Doug Melvin Sandy Johnson
Dean Palmer 3B 1.04 16.71 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Mark Petkovsek RP 0.84 9.49 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Jim Brower SP 0.42 1.87 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Terry Mathews RP 0.31 2.54 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Hanley Frias SS 0.22 4.42 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Edwin Diaz 2B 0.17 0.62 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Danny Kolb RP 0.13 1.9 Doug Melvin Sandy Johnson
Kevin Brown C 0.12 0.58 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Jon Shave SS 0.09 1.98 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Robb Nen RP 0.07 7.89 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Bill Haselman C -0.04 3.84 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Danny Patterson RP -0.08 2.64 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Jeff Frye 2B -0.13 2.35 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Terrell Lowery CF -0.17 3.21 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Mike Cather RP -0.17 0 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Corey Lee RP -0.2 0 Doug Melvin
Ruben Mateo CF -0.26 1.9 Doug Melvin Sandy Johnson
Jonathan Johnson RP -0.26 0 Doug Melvin Sandy Johnson
Kelly Dransfeldt SS -0.26 0.8 Doug Melvin
Bobby Witt SP -0.28 4.52 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Billy Taylor RP -0.3 5.54 Eddie Robinson
Dan Smith SP -0.34 1.73 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Tony Fossas RP -0.39 0 Eddie Robinson
Ryan Glynn SP -0.42 0 Doug Melvin Sandy Johnson
Chad Kreuter C -0.58 3.51 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Scott Eyre RP -0.66 0 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Doug Davis RP -0.66 0 Doug Melvin
Julio Santana SP -1 0.17 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson
Matt Whiteside RP -1.1 0 Tom Grieve Sandy Johnson

Honorable Mention

The “Original” 2001 Rangers              OWAR: 48.4     OWS: 278     OPW%: .513

Sosa shredded opposition pitching to the tune of a .328 BA while launching 64 moon-shots, registering 160 RBI and scoring a League-best 146 runs. Aurilia delivered career-bests with a .324 BA, 37 dingers, 97 ribbies and 114 tallies as he topped the circuit with 206 safeties. Gonzalez swatted 35 big-flies and knocked in 140 baserunners. Zimmerman notched 28 saves and Brown furnished a 2.65 ERA in 19 starts.

On Deck

The “Original” 1924 Senators

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – The “Original” 1992 Milwaukee Brewers

by
April 2, 2015

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Accordingly, Ken Griffey, Jr. is listed on the Mariners roster for the duration of his career while the Marlins claim Miguel Cabrera and the Nationals declare Vladimir Guerrero. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. Additional information and a discussion forum are available at TuataraSoftware.com.

Terminology 

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

Assessment

The 1992 Milwaukee Brewers    OWAR: 48.2     OWS: 290     OPW%: .587

GM Harry Dalton acquired 85% (29 of 34) of the ballplayers on the 1992 Brewers roster. All of the team members were selected during the Amateur Draft with the exception of Frank DiPino and Dave Nilsson (signed as amateur free agents). Based on the revised standings the “Original” 1992 Brewers finished eight games ahead of the Yankees and secured the American League pennant.

Gary Sheffield (.330/33/100) paced the Brew Crew with 32 Win Shares, collected the batting crown and placed third in the MVP race. Paul “The Ignitor” Molitor nabbed 31 bags, drilled 36 doubles and delivered a .320 BA. Fleet-footed shortstop Pat Listach earned Rookie of the Year honors, swiping 54 bases and scoring 93 runs while batting .290 from the leadoff spot. Center fielder Robin Yount slashed 40 two-base hits in his penultimate campaign. Darryl Hamilton contributed a personal-best 41 stolen bases and posted a .298 BA.

Yount placed fourth behind Honus Wagner, Arky Vaughan and Cal Ripken Jr. in “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” for the best shortstop of All-Time. Molitor (3B – 8th), Greg Vaughn (LF – 68th) and B.J. Surhoff (LF – 97th) finished in the top 100 at their respective positions. 

LINEUP POS WAR WS
Pat Listach SS 4.67 22.88
Darryl Hamilton RF 3.55 18.71
Paul Molitor DH 4.87 28.44
Gary Sheffield 3B 5.92 32.28
Robin Yount CF 2.29 19.45
Greg Vaughn LF 1.7 14.43
B. J. Surhoff C 1.58 13.54
John Jaha 1B 0.31 2.63
Jim Gantner 2B -0.24 4.96
BENCH POS WAR WS
Mike Felder CF 0.93 10.14
Dion James RF 0.45 4.29
Glenn Braggs LF 0.31 6.9
Dave Nilsson C 0.27 5.19
Kevin Bass LF 0.26 10.84
Dale Sveum SS 0.08 3.61
Bill Spiers SS 0.05 0.58
Ernie Riles SS 0.03 1.34
Russ McGinnis C -0.11 0.71
Bert Heffernan C -0.15 0.06
Randy Ready DH -0.21 2.92
Tim McIntosh C -0.66 0.62

Bill Wegman compiled a 1.169 WHIP while supporting a workload of 261.2 innings. Jaime Navarro topped the pitching staff with 17 victories and an ERA of 3.33. Chris Bosio (16-6, 3.62) fashioned a 1.154 WHIP. Rookie right-hander Cal Eldred notched an 11-2 record with a 1.79 ERA and a 0.987 WHIP subsequent to a promotion from the Minor Leagues in mid-July.

Doug Jones (11-8, 1.85) rebounded from an off-year in ’91, posting 36 saves and leading the AL with 70 games finished in 80 relief appearances. Jeff Parrett (9-1, 3.02) and Dan Plesac (5-4, 3.68) held opponents at bay.

ROTATION POS WAR WS
Bill Wegman SP 3.73 15.72
Jaime Navarro SP 3.47 15.6
Chris Bosio SP 2.41 13.26
Cal Eldred SP 3.76 11.58
Mike Birkbeck SP -0.3 0
BULLPEN POS WAR WS
Doug Jones RP 2.6 17.59
Dan Plesac RP 0.92 5.9
Jeff Parrett RP 0.91 8.43
Frank DiPino RP 0.31 1.29
Brian Drahman RP 0 0.58
Doug Henry RP -0.71 5.72
Tim Crews RP -1.11 0.05
Chuck Crim RP -1.52 2.41

 The “Original” 1992 Milwaukee Brewers roster

NAME POS WAR WS General Manager Scouting Director
Gary Sheffield 3B 5.92 32.28 Harry Dalton Dan Duquette
Paul Molitor DH 4.87 28.44 Jim Baumer Dee Fondy / Al Widmar
Pat Listach SS 4.67 22.88 Harry Dalton Dick Foster
Cal Eldred SP 3.76 11.58 Harry Dalton Dick Foster
Bill Wegman SP 3.73 15.72 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Darryl Hamilton RF 3.55 18.71 Harry Dalton Dan Duquette
Jaime Navarro SP 3.47 15.6 Harry Dalton Dan Duquette
Doug Jones RP 2.6 17.59 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Chris Bosio SP 2.41 13.26 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Robin Yount CF 2.29 19.45 Jim Wilson Jim Baumer
Greg Vaughn LF 1.7 14.43 Harry Dalton Dan Duquette
B. J. Surhoff C 1.58 13.54 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Mike Felder CF 0.93 10.14 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Dan Plesac RP 0.92 5.9 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Jeff Parrett RP 0.91 8.43 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Dion James RF 0.45 4.29 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Frank DiPino RP 0.31 1.29 Jim Baumer Dee Fondy / Al Widmar
Glenn Braggs LF 0.31 6.9 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
John Jaha 1B 0.31 2.63 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Dave Nilsson C 0.27 5.19 Harry Dalton Dan Duquette
Kevin Bass LF 0.26 10.84 Jim Baumer Dee Fondy / Al Widmar
Dale Sveum SS 0.08 3.61 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Bill Spiers SS 0.05 0.58 Harry Dalton Dan Duquette
Ernie Riles SS 0.03 1.34 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Brian Drahman RP 0 0.58 Harry Dalton Dan Duquette
Russ McGinnis C -0.11 0.71 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Bert Heffernan C -0.15 0.06 Harry Dalton Dick Foster
Randy Ready DH -0.21 2.92 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Jim Gantner 2B -0.24 4.96 Jim Wilson Jim Baumer
Mike Birkbeck SP -0.3 0 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Tim McIntosh C -0.66 0.62 Harry Dalton Dan Duquette
Doug Henry RP -0.71 5.72 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Tim Crews RP -1.11 0.05 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint
Chuck Crim RP -1.52 2.41 Harry Dalton Ray Poitevint

Honorable Mention

The “Original” 1987 Brewers        OWAR: 46.1     OWS: 258     OPW%: .555

Milwaukee rallied to a 90-72 record and finished seven games ahead of Detroit to achieve its first pennant. Paul Molitor (.353/16/75) sparked the Brewers’ offense with a League-leading 41 doubles and 114 runs scored. He pilfered 45 stolen bases and placed fifth in the A.L. MVP balloting. Teddy Higuera whiffed 240 batsmen and registered an 18-10 mark in the course of a four-year run in which he averaged 17 wins, a 3.25 ERA and 192 strikeouts per season. Robin Yount (.312/21/103) tallied 99 runs and 198 base knocks.

On Deck

The “Original” 1999 Rangers

References and Resources 

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database – Transaction a – Executive 

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – The “Original” 2009 Colorado Rockies

by
March 13, 2015

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Consequently, Mike Piazza is listed on the Dodgers roster for the duration of his career while the Giants claim Bobby Bonds and the Indians declare Roger Maris and Manny Ramirez. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. Additional information and a discussion forum are available at TuataraSoftware.com.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

Assessment

The 2009 Colorado Rockies         OWAR: 44.4     OWS: 297     OPW%: .561

GM Dan O’Dowd acquired 65% (28 of 43) of the ballplayers on the 2009 Rockies roster. 29 players were selected during the Amateur Draft though staff ace Ubaldo Jimenez was signed as an amateur free agent. Based on the revised standings the “Original” 2009 Rockies captured the National League pennant following a fierce battle with the Dodgers for the Western division title.

Chone Figgins accrued 26 Win Shares and received his lone All-Star nomination during the 2009 campaign. He established career-highs with 114 runs scored, 101 walks and a .395 OBP while swiping 42 bags from the leadoff spot. Troy Tulowitzki (.297/32/92) pilfered 20 bases and registered 101 runs on the way to a fifth-place finish in the N.L. MVP balloting. Matt “Big Daddy” Holliday compiled a .313 BA, swatted 24 long balls and knocked in 109 runs. Todd Helton eclipsed the .300 mark for the eleventh time in twelve campaigns, batting at a .325 clip while contributing 38 two-baggers. Brad Hawpe laced 42 doubles and slugged 23 circuit clouts to merit a trip to the Midsummer Classic. 

LINEUP POS WAR WS
Chone Figgins 3B 4.72 26.32
Seth Smith DH/LF 2.61 13.43
Troy Tulowitzki SS 5 25.72
Matt Holliday LF 4.7 26.18
Brad Hawpe RF 0.45 18.96
Juan Uribe 3B 3.01 16.45
Todd Helton 1B 3.41 23.24
Chris Iannetta C 2.27 9.76
Craig Counsell 2B 2.53 14.12
BENCH POS WAR WS
Everth Cabrera SS 2.44 13.48
Clint Barmes 2B 1.34 14.32
Juan Pierre LF 1.31 11.2
Ian Stewart 3B 1.13 11.98
Dexter Fowler CF 1.1 14.4
Jeff Baker 3B 1.03 7.96
Jayson Nix 2B 0.7 6.54
Cory Sullivan LF 0.16 3.14
Josh Bard C 0.1 4.61
Eric Young Jr. 2B -0.25 0.21
Jeff Salazar CF -0.32 0.13
Jody Gerut CF -0.41 4.01
Garrett Atkins 3B -0.58 5.21
Ryan Spilborghs LF -0.91 6.16

Ubaldo Jimenez whiffed 198 batsmen and accrued 15 victories along with a 3.47 ERA in his second full season in the Rockies’ starting rotation. Aaron Cook posted a record of 11-6 with a 4.16 ERA following his All-Star season in ’08. Justin Miller (3-3, 3.18) led an otherwise undistinguished bullpen staff.

ROTATION POS WAR WS
Ubaldo Jimenez SP 6.05 19.07
Aaron Cook SP 2.88 11.26
Esmil Rogers SP 0.06 0.21
Jhoulys Chacin SW 0.08 0.39
Franklin Morales RP 0.31 4.19
BULLPEN POS WAR WS
Justin Miller RP 0.66 4.47
Matt Daley RP 0.55 3.97
Mark DiFelice RP 0.43 3.66
Alberto Arias RP 0.21 3.27
Jason Jennings RP 0.2 3.92
Ryan Speier RP 0.02 0.26
Steven Register RP 0.01 0.08
Sean Green RP -0.14 2.73
Pedro Strop RP -0.2 0
Manny Corpas RP -0.25 0.88
Juan Morillo RP -0.36 0
Jorge Sosa RP -0.38 0.09
Jamey Wright RP -0.53 3.69
Luis Ayala RP -0.59 1.47
David Patton RP -0.68 0.02

 The “Original” 2009 Colorado Rockies roster

NAME POS WAR WS General Manager Scouting Director
Ubaldo Jimenez SP 6.05 19.07 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Troy Tulowitzki SS 5 25.72 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Chone Figgins 3B 4.72 26.32 Bob Gebhard Pat Daugherty
Matt Holliday LF 4.7 26.18 Bob Gebhard Pat Daugherty
Todd Helton 1B 3.41 23.24 Bob Gebhard Pat Daugherty
Juan Uribe 3B 3.01 16.45 Bob Gebhard Pat Daugherty
Aaron Cook SP 2.88 11.26 Bob Gebhard Pat Daugherty
Seth Smith LF 2.61 13.43 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Craig Counsell 2B 2.53 14.12 Bob Gebhard Pat Daugherty
Everth Cabrera SS 2.44 13.48 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Chris Iannetta C 2.27 9.76 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Clint Barmes 2B 1.34 14.32 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Juan Pierre LF 1.31 11.2 Bob Gebhard Pat Daugherty
Ian Stewart 3B 1.13 11.98 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Dexter Fowler CF 1.1 14.4 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Jeff Baker 3B 1.03 7.96 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Jayson Nix 2B 0.7 6.54 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Justin Miller RP 0.66 4.47 Bob Gebhard Pat Daugherty
Matt Daley RP 0.55 3.97 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Brad Hawpe RF 0.45 18.96 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Mark DiFelice RP 0.43 3.66 Bob Gebhard Pat Daugherty
Franklin Morales RP 0.31 4.19 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Alberto Arias RP 0.21 3.27 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Jason Jennings RP 0.2 3.92 Bob Gebhard Pat Daugherty
Cory Sullivan LF 0.16 3.14 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Josh Bard C 0.1 4.61 Bob Gebhard Pat Daugherty
Jhoulys Chacin SW 0.08 0.39 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Esmil Rogers SP 0.06 0.21 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Ryan Speier RP 0.02 0.26 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Steven Register RP 0.01 0.08 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Sean Green RP -0.14 2.73 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Pedro Strop RP -0.2 0 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Manny Corpas RP -0.25 0.88 Bob Gebhard Pat Daugherty
Eric Young 2B -0.25 0.21 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Jeff Salazar CF -0.32 0.13 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Juan Morillo RP -0.36 0 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Jorge Sosa RP -0.38 0.09 Bob Gebhard Pat Daugherty
Jody Gerut CF -0.41 4.01 Bob Gebhard Pat Daugherty
Jamey Wright RP -0.53 3.69 Bob Gebhard Pat Daugherty
Garrett Atkins 3B -0.58 5.21 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Luis Ayala RP -0.59 1.47 Dan O’Dowd Pat Daugherty
David Patton RP -0.68 0.02 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt
Ryan Spilborghs LF -0.91 6.16 Dan O’Dowd Bill Schmidt

Honorable Mention 

The “Original” 2007 Rockies              OWAR: 42.0     OWS: 264     OPW%: .546

Matt Holliday (.340/36/137) topped the Senior Circuit in batting average, RBI, hits (216) and doubles (50), earning a runner-up finish in the 2007 NL MVP vote. Troy Tulowitzki (.291/24/99) accrued 104 tallies and placed second in the Rookie of the Year balloting. Todd Helton ripped 42 doubles and third-sacker Chone Figgins manufactured a career-best .330 BA. Garrett Atkins (.301/25/111) and Brad Hawpe (.291/29/116) contributed to Colorado’s offensive onslaught. Jeff Francis paced the starting staff with a 17-9 record while Manny Corpas posted an ERA of 2.08 and saved 19 contests.

On Deck

The “Original” 1992 Brewers

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – The “Original” 2012 Tampa Bay Rays

by
March 6, 2015

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Consequently, Hank Aaron is listed on the Braves roster for the duration of his career while the Blue Jays claim Carlos Delgado and the Brewers declare Paul Molitor. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. Additional information and a discussion forum are available at TuataraSoftware.com.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

Assessment

The 2012 Tampa Bay Rays             OWAR: 46.4     OWS: 254     OPW%: .607

GM Chuck Lamar acquired 77.7% (21 of 27) of the ballplayers on the 2012 Rays roster. With the exception of Elliot Johnson and Jose Veras all of the players were selected during the Amateur Draft. Based on the revised standings the “Original” 2012 Rays registered 98 victories and secured the American League Eastern division title by a 16-game margin over the New York Yankees.

David Price (20-5, 2.56) collected the 2012 AL Cy Young Award for his superlative campaign in which he topped the Junior Circuit in victories and ERA while striking out 205 batters. “Big Game” James Shields (15-10, 3.52) tallied 223 whiffs and fashioned a 1.168 WHIP. Jeremy Hellickson (10-11, 3.10) provided a reliable effort in his sophomore season and added a Gold Glove Award to his trophy case. Jason Hammel (8-6, 3.43) and Matt Moore (11-11, 3.81) stabilized the back-end of the rotation.

Jake McGee led the bullpen crew with a 1.95 ERA and a WHIP of 0.795. Wade Davis contributed an ERA of 2.43 in 54 relief appearances after starting 64 contests in the three prior campaigns.

ROTATION POS WAR WS
David Price SP 6.4 19.12
Jeremy Hellickson SP 3.57 11.21
James Shields SP 2.85 12.33
Jason Hammel SP 2.82 9.74
Matt Moore SP 1.76 8.07
BULLPEN POS WAR WS
Jake McGee RP 1.09 7.5
Wade Davis RP 0.9 6.43
Jose Veras RP 0.75 5.01
Chris Seddon SW 0.37 1.97
Chad Gaudin RP -0.46 2.68
Alex Cobb SP 1.14 6.18
Jeff Niemann SP 0.5 2.07
Dan Wheeler RP -0.68 0

Josh Hamilton blasted 43 round-trippers and scored 103 runs (both career-bests) en route to a fifth-place finish in the 2012 A.L. MVP balloting. B.J. Upton and protégé Desmond Jennings nabbed 31 bags apiece at the top of the order. Upton established a personal best with 28 circuit clouts. Evan Longoria batted .289 with 17 jacks despite missing 88 games due to a partially torn hamstring. John Jaso delivered a career-high .394 OBP and Jonny “Ironsides” Gomes swatted 18 big-flies. 

LINEUP POS WAR WS
B. J. Upton CF 2.56 19.64
Desmond Jennings LF 1.62 15.18
Josh Hamilton DH/CF 4.39 25.5
Evan Longoria 3B 2.39 11.12
Jonny Gomes RF/DH 2.05 13.04
John Jaso C/DH 2.83 15.96
Aubrey Huff 1B 0.07 1.14
Elliot Johnson 2B/SS 1.02 8.62
Reid Brignac SS -0.19 0.52
BENCH POS WAR WS
Carl Crawford LF 0.46 3.19
Jason Pridie RF 0.1 0.5
Matt Diaz LF -0.25 1.61
Stephen Vogt C -0.35 0.16
Delmon Young DH -1.37 6.95

The “Original” 2012 Tampa Bay Rays roster

NAME POS WAR WS General Manager Scouting Director
David Price SP 6.4 19.12 Andrew Friedman R.J. Harrison
Josh Hamilton CF 4.39 25.5 Chuck LaMar Dan Jennings
Jeremy Hellickson SP 3.57 11.21 Chuck LaMar Tim Wilken
James Shields SP 2.85 12.33 Chuck LaMar Dan Jennings
John Jaso DH 2.83 15.96 Chuck LaMar
Jason Hammel SP 2.82 9.74 Chuck LaMar Dan Jennings
B. J. Upton CF 2.56 19.64 Chuck LaMar Dan Jennings
Evan Longoria 3B 2.39 11.12 Andrew Friedman R.J. Harrison
Jonny Gomes DH 2.05 13.04 Chuck LaMar Dan Jennings
Matt Moore SP 1.76 8.07 Andrew Friedman R.J. Harrison
Desmond Jennings LF 1.62 15.18 Andrew Friedman R.J. Harrison
Alex Cobb SP 1.14 6.18 Andrew Friedman R.J. Harrison
Jake McGee RP 1.09 7.5 Chuck LaMar Cam Bonifay
Elliot Johnson SS 1.02 8.62 Chuck LaMar Dan Jennings
Wade Davis RP 0.9 6.43 Chuck LaMar Cam Bonifay
Jose Veras RP 0.75 5.01 Chuck LaMar Dan Jennings
Jeff Niemann SP 0.5 2.07 Chuck LaMar Cam Bonifay
Carl Crawford LF 0.46 3.19 Chuck LaMar Dan Jennings
Chris Seddon SW 0.37 1.97 Chuck LaMar Dan Jennings
Jason Pridie RF 0.1 0.5 Chuck LaMar Dan Jennings
Aubrey Huff 1B 0.07 1.14 Chuck LaMar Dan Jennings
Reid Brignac SS -0.19 0.52 Chuck LaMar Cam Bonifay
Matt Diaz LF -0.25 1.61 Chuck LaMar Dan Jennings
Stephen Vogt C -0.35 0.16 Andrew Friedman R.J. Harrison
Chad Gaudin RP -0.46 2.68 Chuck LaMar Dan Jennings
Dan Wheeler RP -0.68 0 Chuck LaMar
Delmon Young DH -1.37 6.95 Chuck LaMar

Honorable Mention

The “Original” 2008 Rays                   OWAR: 39.4     OWS: 276     OPW%: .528

Five members of the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays accrued at least 20 Win Shares including Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, Aubrey Huff, Evan Longoria and Akinori Iwamura. Hamilton hit .304 with 32 jacks and a League-leading 130 RBI. “Huff Daddy” launched 32 four-baggers and knocked in 108 baserunners. Longoria (.272/27/85) claimed Rookie of the Year honors and Upton swiped 44 bases.

On Deck

The “Original” 2009 Rockies

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database – Transaction a – Executive 

SB Nation – “Evan Longoria injury – 2012 return in question”

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


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