In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Consequently, Babe Ruth is listed on the Red Sox roster for the duration of his career while the Orioles claim Eddie Murray and the Cubs declare Lou Brock. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.
Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. Additional information and a discussion forum are available at TuataraSoftware.com.
OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams
OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams
OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams
The 1980 Kansas City Royals OWAR: 42.6 OWS: 272 OPW%: .596
GM Cedric Tallis acquired two-thirds of the ballplayers on the 1980 Royals roster. The organization selected 24 of the 33 players during the Amateur Draft. Based on the revised standings the “Original” 1980 Royals amassed 97 victories and captured the American League pennant by a five-game margin over the Oakland Athletics.
George Brett was batting .337 when he returned to the lineup on July 10 following a month-long absence. “Mullet” went on an absolute tear, collecting 71 hits in 150 at-bats (.473 BA) and driving in 47 runs to boost his average to .401 on August 17. Brett hovered around the elusive .400 mark into the middle of September 1980 before settling for a .390 BA. In addition to securing his second batting title, he recorded personal-bests in RBI (118), OBP (.454) and SLG (.664) while collecting the American League MVP Award. Brett was selected to 13 consecutive All-Star contests (1976-1988), registered 3154 base hits and supplied a .305 career BA.
Fleet-footed left fielder Willie Wilson paced the Junior Circuit with 230 base knocks, 133 runs scored and 15 triples. He earned the Gold Glove Award, manufactured a .326 BA and nabbed 79 bags in 89 attempts after swiping 83 in the previous year. John “Duke” Wathan (.305/6/58) pilfered 17 bases and established a career-high in batting average while shortstop U.L. Washington contributed 11 three-baggers and stole 20 bases.
Outfield chores were handled by Wilson, Ruppert Jones, Clint Hurdle and Al Cowens. Jones backed the club’s baserunning endeavors with 18 stolen bases but otherwise yielded substandard output compared to the 21 home runs and 33 steals from his ’79 campaign. Cowens (.268/6/59) provided further proof that his runner-up finish in the 1977 AL MVP race was an outlier. Hurdle (.294/10/60) drilled 31 doubles and registered personal-bests in virtually every offensive category.
Slick-fielding second baseman Frank “Smooth” White collected six consecutive Gold Glove Awards from 1977-1982 while Rodney “Cool Breeze” Scott purloined 63 bases and legged out 13 three-base hits. Luis Salazar solidified the bench with a .337 BA following his mid-August promotion.
Brett placed second behind Mike Schmidt in “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” for the best third baseman of All-Time. White (31st) and Wilson (54th) finished in the top 100 at their positions while Dan Quisenberry placed sixty-eighth among pitchers.
Dennis Leonard eclipsed the 20-win plateau for the third time in four seasons. Pacing the circuit with 38 starts, Leonard also served up the most gopher balls (30) and earned runs (118) in the American League. Rich Gale (13-9, 3.92), Renie Martin (10-10, 4.39) and Paul Splittorff (14-11, 4.05) provided adequate support in the starting rotation.
The back-end of the bullpen pitched “lights-out” ball for the Royal Blue crew. Dan Quisenberry perplexed the opposition with his unorthodox delivery. “Quiz” tallied 12 victories and topped the leader boards with 33 saves and 75 appearances. Rookie right-hander Doug Corbett (8-6, 1.98) saved 23 contests and finished third in the 1980 AL Rookie of the Year vote. Greg “Moon-Man” Minton added 19 saves and fashioned a 2.46 ERA while Aurelio “Señor Smoke” recorded 13 wins in relief.
The “Original” 2009 Royals OWAR: 45.7 OWS: 268 OPW%: .544
Zack Greinke (16-8, 2.16) claimed the 2009 AL Cy Young Award while pacing the League in ERA and WHIP (1.073). Carlos Beltran furnished a .325 BA despite missing all of July and August due to injury. Johnny Damon (.282/24/82) slashed 36 two-base hits and scored 107 runs. Billy “Country Breakfast” Butler clubbed 51 doubles and launched 21 long balls while batting .301.
The “Original” 2012 Rays
Baseball America – Executive Database
James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.
James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.
Retrosheet – Transactions Database – Transaction a – Executive
Seamheads – Baseball Gauge
Sean Lahman Baseball Archive
In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Consequently, Joe L. Morgan is listed on the Colt .45’s / Astros roster for the duration of his career while the Angels claim Wally Joyner and the Diamondbacks declare Carlos Gonzalez. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.
The 1922 St. Louis Browns OWAR: 45.8 OWS: 247 OPW%: .532
“Gorgeous” George Sisler carried a .351 lifetime batting average into the 1922 campaign along with the Major League record for hits in a single-season (257 in 1920). He ravaged rival hurlers and topped the leader boards with 246 base knocks, 134 runs, 18 triples and a career-high 51 swipes to complement a .420 BA. Sisler claimed the MVP award but later fell ill and missed the entire 1923 season due to acute sinusitis.
Marty McManus established personal-bests with 189 safeties and 109 RBI while batting .312 with 34 doubles, 11 triples and 11 round-trippers. Del Pratt pounded a career-high 44 two-baggers and knocked in 86 runs. Pat Collins (.307/8/23) split the catching chores with Verne Clemons and Muddy Ruel.
Sisler ranked 24th among first sackers in “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract.” Pratt (35th) and McManus (58th) placed in the top 100 at the keystone position while Ruel finished fifty-first among backstops.
Missouri native Elam Vangilder (19-13, 3.42) delivered career-bests in victories and WHIP (1.208). Jeff Pfeffer (19-12, 3.58) matched Vanglider’s win total and paced the mound crew with 261.1 innings pitched and 32 starts. Wayne “Rasty” Wright held the opposition at bay with a 2.92 ERA and a WHIP of 1.286. Ray “Jockey” Kolp compiled a record of 14-4 while left-hander Earl Hamilton contributed an 11-7 mark. In his rookie season Hub “Shucks” Pruett fashioned an ERA of 2.33, saved 7 contests and topped the League with 23 games finished.
The “Original” 1916 Browns OWAR: 41.4 OWS: 266 OPW%: .550
Jeff Pfeffer (25-11, 1.92) logged 328.2 innings pitched while establishing personal-bests in virtually every major pitching category. Carl Weilman completed 19 of 31 starts and recorded an ERA of 2.15 along with a 1.134 WHIP. Burt Shotton coaxed 110 bases on balls, pilfered 41 bags and tallied 97 runs.
The “Original” 1983 Orioles OWAR: 42.6 OWS: 255 OPW%: .604
Cal Ripken (.318/27/102) led the Junior Circuit with 211 base hits, 121 runs scored and 47 doubles. He appeared in his first All-Star contest and achieved MVP honors along with the Silver Slugger Award. “Steady” Eddie Murray (.306/33/111) registered 115 tallies and placed runner-up to Ripken in the AL MVP balloting. Mike Boddicker accrued 16 victories with a 2.77 ERA in his inaugural campaign.
The “Original” 1980 Royals
Retrosheet – Transactions Database – Transaction a – Executive
Shatzkin, Mike. The Ballplayers. New York, NY. William Morrow and Co., 1990. Print.
In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Consequently, Dave Winfield is listed on the Padres roster for the duration of his career while the Athletics claim Rickey Henderson and the Twins declare Rod Carew. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.
Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital form on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay and KoboBooks – other eBook formats coming soon. Additional information and a discussion forum are available at TuataraSoftware.com.
The 2013 Arizona Diamondbacks OWAR: 37.3 OWS: 274 OPW%: .542
Josh Byrnes and Joe Garagiola, Jr. procured all but one of the ballplayers on the best “Original” Diamondbacks roster in team history – the 2013 crew. Thirty-nine of the 50 players entered the organization via the Amateur Draft with the remaining 11 signed as amateur free agents. Byrnes’ selections focused on the pitching staff while Garagiola placed a distinct emphasis on offense. Based on the revised standings the “Original” 2013 Diamondbacks secured the National League West division title with an 88-74 record .
Max Scherzer (21-3, 2.90) anchored the starting staff and earned the Cy Young Award with a dazzling campaign. Arizona’s first selection in the 2006 Amateur Draft fashioned a League-best WHIP of 0.970, whiffed 240 batsmen in 214.1 innings pitched and merited his first All-Star appearance. Portsider Jorge De La Rosa compiled a 16-6 record along with an ERA of 3.49. Fellow left-hander Wade Miley (10-10, 3.55) eclipsed 200 innings pitched in his sophomore season after placing runner-up in the 2012 NL ROY balloting. Jarrod Parker (12-8, 3.97) yielded admirable results from the fourth slot in the rotation. The D-Backs bullpen featured a capable collection of late-inning relievers, none of which assumed the reins of the closer’s role.
Paul Goldschmidt (.302/36/125) finished second in the 2013 NL MVP voting. Arizona’s eighth-round pick in the 2009 Amateur Draft topped the Senior Circuit in home runs, RBI and SLG (.551). Justin Upton jacked 27 long balls while outfield mate Carlos Gonzalez swatted 26 big-flies. Dan Uggla contributed 22 taters but struggled mightily at the dish, batting a mere .179 while striking out in nearly 40 percent of his at-bats. Miguel Montero experienced an off-year and Carlos Quentin endured an injury-plagued season for the second straight campaign. Stephen Drew tied a career-high with 67 RBI while A.J. Pollock laced 28 two-base knocks in his first full season. Gerardo Parra collected his second Gold Glove and supplied some pop as the fourth outfielder.
The “Original” 2006 Diamondbacks OWAR: 40.4 OWS: 213 OPW%: .523
Brandon Webb (16-8, 3.10) achieved Cy Young honors as Arizona attained its first National League Wild Card berth.
The “Original” 1922 Browns
The “Original” 2003 Marlins
Retrosheet – Transactions Database
In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Consequently, Reggie Jackson is listed on the Athletics roster for the duration of his career while the Mets claim Tom Seaver and the Cardinals declare Steve Carlton. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the real-time or “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.
Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in Kindle format on Amazon.com and ePub format on KoboBooks.com – other eBook formats coming soon. Additional information and a discussion forum are available at TuataraSoftware.com.
The 2003 Florida Marlins OWAR: 43.8 OWS: 260 OPW%: .522
GM Dave Dombrowski acquired all of the talent on the finest “Original” Marlins roster in team history – the 2003 squad. Fourteen of the 27 players were signed as amateur free agents and twelve entered the organization via the Amateur Draft. Kevin Millar was the lone exception as he was purchased from the St. Paul Saints (Northern League) in 1993. Based on the revised standings the “Original” 2003 Marlins notched 85 victories and tied the Expos for second place in the National League East, two games behind the Braves.
Cuban right-hander Livan Hernandez (15-10, 3.20) fashioned a career-best WHIP of 1.209 while leading the National League in complete games (8) and innings pitched (233.1). Josh Beckett paced the staff with a 3.04 ERA in 23 starts. Claudio Vargas, Gary Knotts and Nate Robertson rounded out the rotation. Felix Heredia (5-3, 2.69) delivered the best ERA and WHIP (1.230) of his career as the featured left-hander in the bullpen.
The Marlins’ farm system yielded two first-rate shortstops, Edgar Renteria and Alex “Sea Bass” Gonzalez. Renteria (.330/13/100) topped the club in BA, hits, doubles (47), RBI and stolen bases (34) while earning his second Gold Glove Award and appearing in his third All-Star game. Gonzalez tallied 33 two-baggers and swatted 18 big-flies. Second-sacker Luis Castillo managed a .314 BA and collected the first of three consecutive Gold Glove Awards. Miguel Cabrera was recalled in mid-June to handle assignments at third base and left field. The 20 year-old sensation from Maracay, Venezuela drove in 62 runs and placed fifth in the 2003 NL Rookie of the Year balloting. Kevin Millar slugged a team-high 25 round-trippers and plated 96 baserunners. Randy Winn (.295/11/75) led the Fish with 103 runs scored, drilled 37 two-base hits and swiped 23 bags. Charles Johnson handled the primary workload behind the dish and swatted 20 long balls.
The “Original” 2011 Marlins OWAR: 39.8 OWS: 254 OPW%: .510
Adrian Gonzalez (.338/27/117) and Giancarlo Stanton (.262/34/87) along with batting champion Miguel Cabrera (.344/30/105) form a potent lineup as the Marlins seize the National League Wild Card entry.
The “Original” 2013 Diamondbacks
Would your favorite baseball team make the playoffs if player X had not been traded? Imagine your team’s roster from any particular year. Remove all of the players that your team acquired through trades and free agency. Would you be able to field a competitive team? All right, let us re-populate the roster with every player that the organization originally drafted and signed. Yes, we will include undrafted free agents and foreign players who signed with their first Major League team, as well. How does the team stack up now? Is the club better or worse than the squad that you imagined at first?
In Hardball Retrospective, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original teams. Using a variety of advanced statistics and methods, I generated revised standings for each season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the real-time or “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.
The following article is an excerpt from “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”. The book is available in Kindle format on Amazon.com – other eBook formats coming soon. Additional information and a discussion forum are available at TuataraSoftware.com.
Several new terms are referenced below:
OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams
OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams
OWARavg – Wins Above Replacement divided by Player-Seasons (based on Draft Round)
OWSavg – Win Shares divided by Player-Seasons (based on Draft Round)
Note: the tables and charts accompanying this chapter in the book have been omitted from this post.
I have examined the scouting and development of Major League baseball players from several perspectives, focusing on the Amateur Draft in order to provide a consistent method for player acquisition. Fundamentally, this places all teams on equal ground in terms of selecting from the same group of available players each year. All players eligible for the Draft are not equal with respect to monetary demands and all teams are not equal in terms of resources. Furthermore, teams may chose to pass on drafting a high school graduate who has already committed to a college. Using a half-century’s worth of results from the Amateur Draft, I divided the players into four groups based on the round in which they were selected. I added the number of player-seasons for each range in order to determine the groupings (Round 1, 2-4, 5-10 and 11-89), omitting all players who were drafted but did not sign in a particular season.
The Player Development chart compares the Amateur Draft results for each team by dividing the total OWAR and OWS into total Player-Seasons for each grouping. The Graduation Rate chart represents the number of Player-Seasons per draft, essentially relating how many ballplayers drafted by each team have “graduated” to the big leagues and how many seasons they have played.
The Angels record the second-highest graduation rate (31 player-seasons per Draft) while procuring the fifth-best OWSavg for rounds 5-10 in the Amateur Draft. Jim Edmonds (67 Career WAR, 319 Career WS) tops the list of mid-round recruits for the Halos, which also features Garret Anderson, Bruce Bochte, Wally Joyner, John Lackey, Carney Lansford, Mark McLemore, Gary Pettis, Tim Salmon, Jarrod Washburn and Devon White. Mike Trout is angling for the premier position in the Angels’ blue-chip bunch, which is presently occupied by Tom Brunansky, Darin Erstad, Chuck Finley, Troy Glaus, Andy Messersmith, Frank Tanana and Jered Weaver. Seventeenth-round draftees Dante Bichette and Mike Napoli are the lone late-rounders of note as Los Angeles tallied the third-worst OWARavg in rounds 11-89.
Arizona’s draft choices from rounds 2-4 rank last among the 30 ballclubs in OWARavg and OWSavg. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks’ brass has chosen wisely in rounds 5-10 (5th in OWARavg). The D-Backs’ first-round selections are headlined by Max Scherzer and Justin Upton while the returns from mid-round picks include Brad Penny, Dan Uggla (11th Round) and Brandon Webb.
Atlanta’s late-round selections top the leader boards in OWSavg and place third in OWARavg, including the quintet of Dusty Baker (26th Round), Brett Butler (23rd Round, 305 Career WS), Jermaine Dye, Glenn Hubbard and Kevin Millwood. Chipper Jones (69 Career WAR, 420 Career WS), Jeff Blauser, Dale Murphy and Adam Wainwright are among the notable first-round choices for the Braves. Ron Gant, Tom Glavine (82 Career WAR, 312 Career WS), David Justice, Ryan Klesko, Brian McCann, Mickey Rivers and Jason Schmidt complete Atlanta’s upper-to-mid round draft picks.
Baltimore’s draft record can be described as inconsistent. The blue-chip prospects score a ninth-place finish in OWARavg while the middle-to-late rounders settle near the bottom of the pack. Bobby Grich (327 Career WS) and Mike Mussina (82 Career WAR) headline a flock of first-round selections featuring Ben McDonald, Brian Roberts and Jayson Werth. In rounds 2-4 the Orioles system yields several treasures, Don Baylor, Doug DeCinces, Eddie Murray (58 Career WAR, 427 Career WS) and Cal Ripken, Jr. (66 Career WAR, 423 Career WS). Notable O’s middle-to-late round picks include Mike Boddicker, Al Bumbry, Mike Flanagan and Steve Finley.
Boston wins the award for overall scouting and development specific to players selected in the Amateur Draft. The organization ranks fifth among first-round selections and outshines the competition in rounds 2-10, placing second in rounds 2-4 while nailing down the top spot for rounds 5-10. Roger Clemens leads all Sox draftees with 143 Career WAR and 437 Career WS). Boston blue-chippers Ellis Burks, Rick Burleson, Carlton Fisk (60 Career WAR, 364 Career WS), Nomar Garciaparra, Bruce Hurst, Jim Rice, Aaron Sele, Bob Stanley and Mo Vaughn are prominent, and mid-round prospects, including Jeff Bagwell, Wade Boggs, Dwight Evans, Fred Lynn, Amos Otis, Curt Schilling and John Tudor flourished under the direction of the Sox’ coaching staff.
The Cubs’ first-round draftees own the third-lowest marks in OWARavg and OWSavg while the organization rates seventh-worst overall in OWSavg. Chicago’s foremost selections are a mixed bag consisting of Joe Carter, Jon Garland, Burt Hooton, Rafael Palmeiro (63 Career WAR, 401 Career WS) and Kerry Wood. The Cubbies claim the eighth-best OWARavg in rounds 2-4 on the shoulders of Greg Maddux (111 Career WAR, 404 Career WS) assisted by fellow hurlers Larry Gura, Ken Holtzman, Joe Niekro, Rick Reuschel and Lee Smith. Among the notable mid-to-late round products of the Cubs’ farm system are Oscar Gamble, Mark Grace (24th Round), Kyle Lohse (29th Round), Jamie Moyer, Bill North and Steve Trachsel.
The White Sox rank worst overall among “Turn of the Century” franchises in OWARavg and OWSavg, placing next-to-last in rounds 2-4. Chicago’s first-rounders grade slightly below average. Frank E. Thomas (70 Career WAR, 405 Career WS) stands out among the Sox selections, which encompass fellow number-one picks Harold Baines, Alex Fernandez, Jack McDowell and Robin Ventura. A short list of mid-to-late draftees for the Pale Hose includes Mark Buehrle, Mike Cameron, Doug Drabek, Ray Durham and Rich Gossage.
Cincinnati excels in the scouting and development of mid-round draft picks, scoring fifth (Rounds 2-4) and fourth (Rounds 5-10) in OWSavg. Featuring Johnny Bench (62 Career WAR, 365 Career WS), this gifted collection encompasses Eric Davis, Adam Dunn, Charlie Leibrandt, Hal McRae, Paul O’Neill, Reggie Sanders, Danny Tartabull and Joey Votto. Barry Larkin (67 Career WAR, 344 Career WS) outdistances the first-round recruits while Ken Griffey (29th Round) and Trevor Hoffman close out the endgame selections.
Despite the presence of Manny Ramirez amid the team’s premier picks, Cleveland notches the fifth-worst record in OWARavg for first-rounders. Chris Chambliss, Charles Nagy, C.C. Sabathia and Greg Swindell round out the Tribes’ blue-chippers. The club follows an unexceptional path through the middle rounds of the Amateur Draft, noting exemptions for Albert Belle, Dennis Eckersley and Von Hayes. The Indians’ redemption occurs with the late-round draft picks as the franchise secured first place in OWARavg and a runner-up finish in OWSavg for rounds 11-89. Superb endgame selections consist of Buddy Bell, Brian S. Giles, Richie Sexson, and Jim Thome (391 Career WS).
The Rockies’ blue-chip prospects place fourth in OWARavg, but struggle to develop late-round draftees, finishing second-to-last in OWARavg for players drafted in rounds 11-89. Todd Helton compiled 60 Career WAR and 315 Career WS, while fellow first-rounder Troy Tulowitzki continues to steadily climb the ranks. Matt Holliday leads the active mid-rounders with 219 Career WAR through 2013. Colorado ranks third-worst in Graduation Rate (23 player-seasons per Draft).
Detroit boasts the worst OWSavg and scores next-to-last in OWARavg among first-round draft picks while the franchise places 26th in overall OWARavg. Only five of the Tigers’ top prospects amassed 20+ Career WAR – Travis Fryman, Kirk Gibson, Howard Johnson, Lance Parrish and current Tigers’ ace Justin Verlander. Other distinguished members of Detroit’s farm system include Curtis Granderson, Chris Hoiles, Jack Morris, John Smoltz (22nd Round, 72 Career WAR), Jason D. Thompson, Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker (66 Career WAR, 346 Career WS).
The Marlins first-round draft choices rank eighth in OWARavg, but generally the team’s scouting and development results are dreadful as the club ranks dead last overall in OWARavg, OWSavg and Graduation Rate (18 player-seasons per Draft). Prominent first-round selections for Miami include Josh Beckett, Jose D. Fernandez, Adrian Gonzalez, Charles Johnson and Mark Kotsay. Giancarlo Stanton (2nd Round) stands tall among the remaining Marlins’ draftees in conjunction with Steve Cishek, Josh Johnson, Josh Willingham (17th Round) and Randy Winn.
Houston accrues the sixth-worst OWARavg rate among first-round selections and claims the fourth-lowest Graduation Rate (23 player-seasons per Draft). Lance Berkman and Craig Biggio (426 Career WS) co-star in the Astros’ first-round rankings with Floyd Bannister, John Mayberry and Billy Wagner holding down supporting roles. Mid-round recruits consist of Ken Caminiti, Bill D. Doran, Luis E. Gonzalez, Shane Reynolds and Ben Zobrist. The ‘Stros achieve the fifth-best OWARavg in rounds 11-89 based on the development and consistent production from Ken Forsch, Darryl Kile, Kenny Lofton, Roy Oswalt (23rd Round) and Johnny Ray.
Kansas City’s first-round draft picks have collectively flopped as its second-worst OWSavg attests. Exceptions to the substandard results include Kevin Appier, Johnny Damon (302 Career WS), Alex Gordon, Zack Greinke and Willie Wilson. On the positive side, the Royals lead the Majors in OWSavg and place fourth in OWARavg for Amateur Draft rounds 2-4. George Brett (435 Career WS) highlights a star-studded cast consisting of Carlos Beltran (322 Career WS), David Cone, Cecil Fielder, Mark Gubicza, Ruppert Jones, Dennis Leonard and Jon Lieber. The organization’s prized mid-to-late rounders are Jeff Conine (58th Round), Mark Ellis, Tom Gordon, Bret Saberhagen (19th Round), Kevin Seitzer and Mike Sweeney.
The Dodgers offset pedestrian results in the early rounds with tremendous scores in rounds 5-10 (2nd in OWSavg) and 11-89 (4th in OWARavg). Drafted in the 62nd Round, Mike Piazza (324 Career WS) is a wonderful representative of late-round success. In addition the Los Angeles’ endgame claims consist of Orel Hershiser (17th Round), Ted Lilly (23rd Round), Russell Martin (17th Round) and Dave Stewart (16th Round). Famous first-rounders for the Dodgers include Steve Garvey, Clayton Kershaw, Paul Konerko, Rick Rhoden, Mike Scioscia, Rick Sutcliffe and Bob Welch. Ron Cey tops a throng of mid-rounders which encompass Doyle Alexander, Bill Buckner, Joe Ferguson, Sid Fernandez, John Franco, Charlie Hough, Eric Karros, Matt Kemp, Davey Lopes, Bill Russell, Steve Sax, Shane Victorino, Steve Yeager and Eric Young.
Milwaukee’s first round draft picks yield the top OWARavg and OWSavg among all Major League teams. Paul Molitor, Gary Sheffield and Robin Yount produced 60+ WAR and 400+ Win Shares in their careers. Other notable Brewers first-rounders include Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Darrell Porter, Ben Sheets, B.J. Surhoff, Gorman Thomas and Greg Vaughn. However the organization is deficient in the scouting and development of middle-to-late round talent. Second-rounder Chris Bosio and eleventh-rounder Jeff Cirillo pace the Brew Crew’s Round 2+ group with 22 Career WAR while Mark Loretta accrued 178 Career WS.
Minnesota’s draft picks in rounds 2-4 place third in OWARavg and OWSavg and the organization scores fifth overall in OWSavg. Headlined by Bert Blyleven (85 Career WAR, 341 Career WS) and Graig Nettles (317 Career WS), the round 2-4 group also counts Scott Erickson, Justin Morneau, Denny Neagle, A.J. Pierzynski and Frank Viola among its members. The Twins’ blue-chip prospects, a group which encompasses Jay Bell, Michael Cuddyer, Gary Gaetti, Torii Hunter, Chuck Knoblauch, Joe Mauer and Kirby Puckett, attained the ninth-best OWSavg. Rick Dempsey, Kent Hrbek (17th Round) and Brad Radke are among the notable mid-to-late round selections.
The Mets rank third-worst in OWARavg for players selected in rounds 5-10 of the Amateur Draft. New York’s scouting and development perform poorly overall, rating 25th in OWARavg and 23rd in OWSavg. The Metropolitans first-rounders, a collection including Hubie Brooks, Jeromy Burnitz, Dwight Gooden, Gregg Jefferies, Jon Matlack, Ken Singleton, Darryl Strawberry and David Wright, are somewhat better than the League in OWSavg. Twelth-round selection Nolan Ryan (63 Career WAR, 339 Career WS) highlights the remaining Mets draftees along with A.J. Burnett, Lenny Dykstra and Mookie Wilson.
The Yankees’ blue-chip prospects place sixth in OWSavg while players chosen in rounds 2-4 rank fifth-worst. Derek Jeter (407 Career WS) heads the first-round crew which includes Tim Belcher, Willie McGee and Thurman Munson. Ron Guidry and Al Leiter are the only Pinstripers of note that were drafted in the next three rounds. More than a few of the Bronx Bombers’ mid-to-late round selections fashioned prolific careers including Brad Ausmus (48th Round), Greg Gagne, Mike Lowell (20th Round), Don Mattingly (19th Round), Fred McGriff, Andy Pettitte (22nd Round), Jorge Posada (24th Round) and J.T. Snow.
The Athletics earn a second-place overall finish in OWARavg for the Amateur Draft and secure a third-place ribbon in OWSavg. Oakland executed particularly well in rounds 2-4 (4th in OWARavg) and 5-10 (3rd in OWSavg). Reggie Jackson (74 Career WAR, 441 Career WS) headlines the Oakland first-rounders club, which also features Eric Chavez, Phil Garner, George Hendrick, Chet Lemon, Mark McGwire, Rick Monday, Mike Morgan, Nick Swisher and Barry Zito. Fourth-round selection Rickey Henderson (115 Career WAR, 543 Career WS) tops the A’s mid-to-late round draftees. Other noteworthy products of the Oakland farm system include Sal Bando, Vida Blue, Jose Canseco, Darrell Evans, Jason Giambi, Tim Hudson, Dwayne Murphy, Terry Steinbach, Kevin Tapani, Gene Tenace (20th Round) and Mickey Tettleton.
Philadelphia rates highly in the scouting and development of players chosen in Amateur Draft rounds 2-4 with a sixth-place finish in OWARavg. On the other hand the team stumbles through the twilight rounds, ranking 25th out of 30 teams in OWARavg and OWSavg. The Phillies’ first-rounders score in the bottom-third of the League, a class consisting of Pat Burrell, Cole Hamels, Greg Luzinski, Lonnie Smith and Chase Utley. Mike Schmidt (103 Career WAR, 463 Career WS) headlines the recruits from rounds 2-4 joined by fellow members Larry Hisle, Scott Rolen, Jimmy Rollins and Randy Wolf. Mid-to-late round gems include Bob Boone, Darren Daulton (25th Round), Ryan Howard and Ryne Sandberg (20th Round).
The Pirates number-one draft picks score exceptionally well in OWARavg (2nd) and OWSavg (3rd) compared to the League average, due in large part to the contributions of Barry Bonds (156 Career WAR, 694 Career WS). Moises Alou, Richie Hebner, Jason Kendall and present-day center fielder Andrew McCutchen pay significant dividends for the Bucs. A number of Pittsburgh’s mid-to-late round selections achieved stardom including Bronson Arroyo, Jose A. Bautista, Jay Buhner, John Candelaria, Gene Garber, Dave Parker (14th Round, 324 Career WS), Willie Randolph (55 Career WAR, 305 Career WS), Tim Wakefield and Richie Zisk.
The Padres’ woeful performance in the Amateur Draft is underscored by the second-worst OWARavg and fourth-worst OWSavg overall. San Diego’s premier picks rank last in OWARavg in spite of the presence of Andy Benes, Johnny Grubb, Derrek Lee, Kevin McReynolds and Dave Winfield (412 Career WS). Featuring Hall of Famers Tony Gwynn (386 Career WS) and Ozzie Smith (325 Career WS) along with John Kruk, the Friar’s selections in rounds 2-4 provide a positive variance in the franchise record. Jake Peavy (15th Round) is the lone Padre drafted in the fifth round or later to register at least 20 Career WAR.
The Mariners excel in the drafting and development of first and mid-round selections. M’s blue-chippers include Ken Griffey Jr. (402 Career WS), Dave Henderson, Tino Martinez, Mike Moore, Alex Rodriguez (94 Career WAR, 479 Career WS) and Jason Varitek. On the other hand, Seattle’s late-round prospects place third-worst in OWSavg. An exception to the rule, Raul Ibanez (36th Round) tallied 209 Career WS. Bret Boone, Alvin Davis, Mike Hampton, Mark Langston and Derek Lowe highlight Seattle’s mid-round picks.
The Giants furnish an atrocious record in the Amateur Draft, posting below-average results in all OWARavg and OWSavg categories along with the fourth-worst overall ranking. San Francisco’s first-round selections place 27th out of 30 clubs. Buster Posey is steadily ascending the leader boards among the Giants’ premier choices which include Matt Cain, Will Clark (320 Career WS), Royce Clayton, Dave Kingman, Tim Lincecum, Gary Matthews, Chris Speier, Robby Thompson and Matt D. Williams. The franchise cultivated a group of mid-to-late round picks comprised of Jim Barr, John Burkett, Jack Clark, Chili Davis, George Foster, Garry Maddox, Bill Mueller and Joe Nathan.
St. Louis sparkles in the scouting and development of late-rounders as the club’s second-place finish in OWARavg for rounds 11-89 surely attests. Thirteenth-round selection Albert Pujols (92 Career WAR, 405 Career WS) leads the flock of Cardinals’ success stories along with John Denny (29th Round), Jeff Fassero (22nd Round), Keith Hernandez (42nd Round) and Placido Polanco (19th Round). The organization achieves moderate results in the first round including J.D. Drew, Brian Jordan, Terry Kennedy, Ted Simmons, Garry Templeton and Andy Van Slyke. Noteworthy Cardinals’ mid-rounders consist of Coco Crisp, Dan Haren, Lance Johnson, Ray Lankford, Yadier Molina, Jerry Mumphrey, Terry Pendleton, Jerry Reuss and Todd Zeile.
The Tampa Bay organization ranks second in OWSavg and third in OWARavg in terms of first-round Amateur Draft selections. The Rays count Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, David Price and B.J. Upton among the franchise’s finest ballplayers. The farm system also bore middle-to-late rounders such as Carl Crawford, Aubrey Huff and James Shields (16th Round). Tampa Bay’s Graduation Rate is an abysmal 20 player-seasons per Draft, the second-worst record in the League.
Texas yields the highest graduation rate (32 player-seasons per Draft) yet the club registers an unremarkable 24th place result for overall OWARavg. The Rangers’ late-round jewels, comprising Rich Aurilia (24th Round), Travis Hafner, Mike Hargrove (25th Round), Ian Kinsler and Kenny Rogers (39th Round), manage a fourth-place showing in OWSavg. The organization’s prized first-rounders include Kevin J. Brown, Jeff Burroughs, Rick Helling, Carlos Pena, Roy Smalley III, Jim Sundberg and Mark Teixeira. The club logs dismal outcomes in rounds 2-4 (third-worst in the Majors) and among the Rangers selected in rounds 2-10, only Ryan Dempster, Aaron Harang, Bill Madlock and Darren Oliver register at least 20 Career WAR.
Toronto’s upper and middle-level draft choices prospered, particularly the ballplayers chosen in rounds 5-10 (2nd in OWARavg). Roy Halladay (64 Career WAR) heads the list of first-rounders developed in the Blue Jays’ farm system together with Chris J. Carpenter, Shawn Green, Aaron Hill, Lloyd Moseby, Shannon Stewart, Todd Stottlemyre and Vernon Wells. Middle-to-late round selections Jeff Kent (20th Round), John Olerud, Dave Stieb and David Wells all post 50+ Career WAR. Other noteworthy Jays draftees include Jesse Barfield, Pat Hentgen, Orlando Hudson, Jimmy Key, Woddy Williams and Michael Young.
Washington posts the highest OWARavg in the Major Leagues for rounds 2-4 and finishes third in OWSavg for rounds 11-89. Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg should augment the Nationals’ first-round scores which presently mirror League average rates. The Nats top selections include Delino DeShields, Cliff Floyd, Bill Gullickson, Tony Phillips, Steve Rogers, Tim Wallach, Rondell White and Ryan Zimmerman. Among the mid-to-late round choices, Gary Carter, Andre Dawson, Randy D. Johnson (101 Career WAR) and Tim Raines amassed 300+ Career Win Shares. The thriving farm system also produced Jason Bay (Round 22), Marquis Grissom, Mark Grudzielanek, Cliff P. Lee, Brandon Phillips, Scott Sanderson, Javier Vazquez and Jose Vidro.