Hardball Retrospective – The “Original” 2003 Florida Marlins

by DerekBain

January 31, 2015

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Consequently, Reggie Jackson is listed on the Athletics roster for the duration of his career while the Mets claim Tom Seaver and the Cardinals declare Steve Carlton. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the real-time or “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in Kindle format on Amazon.com and ePub format on KoboBooks.com – other eBook formats coming soon. Additional information and a discussion forum are available at TuataraSoftware.com.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

Assessment

The 2003 Florida Marlins OWAR: 43.8 OWS: 260 OPW%: .522

GM Dave Dombrowski acquired all of the talent on the finest “Original” Marlins roster in team history – the 2003 squad. Fourteen of the 27 players were signed as amateur free agents and twelve entered the organization via the Amateur Draft. Kevin Millar was the lone exception as he was purchased from the St. Paul Saints (Northern League) in 1993. Based on the revised standings the “Original” 2003 Marlins notched 85 victories and tied the Expos for second place in the National League East, two games behind the Braves.

Cuban right-hander Livan Hernandez (15-10, 3.20) fashioned a career-best WHIP of 1.209 while leading the National League in complete games (8) and innings pitched (233.1). Josh Beckett paced the staff with a 3.04 ERA in 23 starts. Claudio Vargas, Gary Knotts and Nate Robertson rounded out the rotation. Felix Heredia (5-3, 2.69) delivered the best ERA and WHIP (1.230) of his career as the featured left-hander in the bullpen.

*ROTATION*	*POS*	*WAR*	WS
Livan Hernandez	SP	6.33	21.08
Josh Beckett	SP	3.04	10.93
Claudio Vargas	SP	1.41	6.65
Gary Knotts	SP	-1.05	0.73
Nate Robertson	SP	0.05	1.32
BULLPEN	POS	WAR	WS
Felix Heredia	RP	1.48	8.18
Will Cunnane	RP	0.46	3.16
Michael Tejera	SW	0.01	3.19
Vic Darensbourg	RP	-0.36	0.26
Jason Pearson	RP	-0.54	0
Hector Almonte	RP	-0.75	0
Brian Meadows	SP	-0.27	3.12
Blaine Neal	RP	-0.95	0
Kevin Olsen	RP	-1.13	0

The Marlins’ farm system yielded two first-rate shortstops, Edgar Renteria and Alex “Sea Bass” Gonzalez. Renteria (.330/13/100) topped the club in BA, hits, doubles (47), RBI and stolen bases (34) while earning his second Gold Glove Award and appearing in his third All-Star game. Gonzalez tallied 33 two-baggers and swatted 18 big-flies. Second-sacker Luis Castillo managed a .314 BA and collected the first of three consecutive Gold Glove Awards. Miguel Cabrera was recalled in mid-June to handle assignments at third base and left field. The 20 year-old sensation from Maracay, Venezuela drove in 62 runs and placed fifth in the 2003 NL Rookie of the Year balloting. Kevin Millar slugged a team-high 25 round-trippers and plated 96 baserunners. Randy Winn (.295/11/75) led the Fish with 103 runs scored, drilled 37 two-base hits and swiped 23 bags. Charles Johnson handled the primary workload behind the dish and swatted 20 long balls.

LINEUP	POS	WAR	WS
Luis Castillo	2B	3.12	23.37
Edgar Renteria	SS	4.62	25.78
Randy Winn	RF/LF	2.56	19.31
Kevin Millar	1B	1.83	14.94
Mark Kotsay	CF	2.15	14.21
Miguel Cabrera	3B/LF	0.08	8.66
Charles Johnson	C	1.25	11.6
Billy McMillon	LF	0.62	5.12
BENCH	POS	total_WAR	total_WS
Alex Gonzalez	SS	1.79	20.48
Mike Redmond	C	0.14	1.88
Luis Ugueto	2B	0.01	0.21
Julio Ramirez	CF	-0.05	0
Dave Berg	2B	-0.41	2.37

The “Original” 2003 Florida Marlins roster

Player	POS	WAR	WS	General Manager	Scouting Director
Livan Hernandez	SP	6.33	21.08	Dave Dombrowski	Orrin Freeman
Edgar Renteria	SS	4.62	25.78	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Luis Castillo	2B	3.12	23.37	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Josh Beckett	SP	3.04	10.93	Dave Dombrowski	Al Avila
Randy Winn	LF	2.56	19.31	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Mark Kotsay	CF	2.15	14.21	Dave Dombrowski	Orrin Freeman
Kevin Millar	1B	1.83	14.94	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Alex Gonzalez	SS	1.79	20.48	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Felix Heredia	RP	1.48	8.18	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Claudio Vargas	SP	1.41	6.65	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Charles Johnson	C	1.25	11.6	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Billy McMillon	LF	0.62	5.12	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Will Cunnane	RP	0.46	3.16	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Mike Redmond	C	0.14	1.88	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Miguel Cabrera	LF	0.08	8.66	Dave Dombrowski	Al Avila
Nate Robertson	SP	0.05	1.32	Dave Dombrowski	Al Avila
Michael Tejera	SW	0.01	3.19	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Luis Ugueto	2B	0.01	0.21	Dave Dombrowski	Orrin Freeman
Julio Ramirez	CF	-0.05	0	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Brian Meadows	SP	-0.27	3.12	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Vic Darensbourg	RP	-0.36	0.26	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Dave Berg	2B	-0.41	2.37	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Jason Pearson	RP	-0.54	0	Dave Dombrowski	Orrin Freeman
Hector Almonte	RP	-0.75	0	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Blaine Neal	RP	-0.95	0	Dave Dombrowski	Orrin Freeman
Gary Knotts	SP	-1.05	0.73	Dave Dombrowski	Gary Hughes
Kevin Olsen	RP	-1.13	0	Dave Dombrowski	Orrin Freeman

Honorable Mention

The “Original” 2011 Marlins OWAR: 39.8 OWS: 254 OPW%: .510

Adrian Gonzalez (.338/27/117) and Giancarlo Stanton (.262/34/87) along with batting champion Miguel Cabrera (.344/30/105) form a potent lineup as the Marlins seize the National League Wild Card entry.