Hardball Retrospective – The “Original” 2002 Toronto Blue Jays
In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, Jim Edmonds is listed on the Angels roster for the duration of his career while the Astros declare Rusty Staub and the Athletics claim Lefty Grove. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.
Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Additional information and a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.
Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.
Terminology
OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams
OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams
OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams
Assessment
The 2002 Toronto Blue Jays OWAR: 51.4 OWS: 312 OPW%: .572
GM Pat Gillick acquired 65% (35/54) of the ballplayers on the 2002 Blue Jays roster. 43 team members were drafted by the club. Based on the revised standings the “Original” 2002 Blue Jays captured the American League Eastern Division title by nine games over the New York Yankees and topped the Junior Circuit in OWAR and OWS.
The middle of the Blue Jays’ batting order was stacked. Shawn Green (.285/42/114) scored 110 runs and placed fifth in the MVP balloting. Jeff Kent (.313/37/108) laced 42 doubles and recorded a career-best in home runs. Carlos Delgado tallied 103 runs scored and blasted 33 round-trippers in the midst of a ten-year streak with at least 30 home runs per season (1997-2006). John Olerud (.300/22/102) rapped 39 two-base knocks and garnered his second Gold Glove Award. Shannon Stewart contributed a .303 BA and registered 103 tallies from the leadoff spot. Alex S. Gonzalez slashed 27 doubles and clubbed 18 circuit clouts while fellow shortstop Chris Woodward batted .276 with 13 dingers. Vernon Wells produced a .275 BA with 23 four-baggers and 100 ribbies.
Kent placed 48th at the keystone position in “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” and Olerud ranked 53rd among first sackers.
| LINEUP | POS | WAR | WS |
| Shannon Stewart | LF | 2.37 | 18.47 |
| Alex Gonzalez | SS | 2.78 | 14.36 |
| Shawn Green | RF | 6.18 | 32.07 |
| Jeff Kent | 2B | 6.04 | 29.93 |
| Carlos Delgado | DH/1B | 4.76 | 25.97 |
| John Olerud | 1B | 4.64 | 25.92 |
| Vernon Wells | CF | 0.83 | 16.7 |
| Greg Myers | C | 0.57 | 5.57 |
| Chris Stynes | 3B | -0.02 | 3.46 |
| BENCH | POS | WAR | WS |
| Chris Woodward | SS | 2.17 | 11.74 |
| Josh Phelps | DH | 1.46 | 9.8 |
| Orlando Hudson | 2B | 1.17 | 5.89 |
| Craig Wilson | RF | 0.95 | 10.78 |
| Jay Gibbons | RF | 0.59 | 11.97 |
| Ryan Thompson | LF | 0.14 | 2.84 |
| Felipe Lopez | SS | 0.08 | 5.8 |
| Pat Borders | DH | 0.06 | 0.36 |
| Abraham Nunez | 2B | 0.04 | 4.88 |
| Casey Blake | 3B | -0.11 | 0.11 |
| Kevin Cash | C | -0.14 | 0.08 |
| Mike Coolbaugh | 3B | -0.17 | 0.16 |
| Brent Abernathy | 2B | -0.44 | 4.99 |
| Michael Young | 2B | -0.63 | 10.72 |
| Cesar Izturis | SS | -0.68 | 3.77 |
| Joe Lawrence | 2B | -0.83 | 1.48 |
Roy “Doc” Halladay (19-7, 2.93) led the American League with 239.1 innings pitched and merited the first of eight All-Star invitations. David “Boomer” Wells equaled Halladay’s win-loss record. Billy Koch amassed 11 victories and saved 44 contests while Jose Mesa closed out 45 games with a 2.97 ERA. Steve Karsay (3.26, 12 SV) and Ben Weber (2.54, 7 SV) provided solid relief in the late innings.
| ROTATION | POS | WAR | WS |
| Roy Halladay | SP | 6.74 | 21.67 |
| David Wells | SP | 3.99 | 14.79 |
| Woody Williams | SP | 3.2 | 9.65 |
| Mark Hendrickson | SP | 1.23 | 4.01 |
| Chris Carpenter | SP | 0.41 | 2.73 |
| BULLPEN | POS | WAR | WS |
| Steve Karsay | RP | 2.01 | 11 |
| Billy Koch | RP | 1.44 | 18.37 |
| Ben Weber | RP | 1.33 | 10.48 |
| Jose Mesa | RP | 1.28 | 12.4 |
| David Weathers | RP | 1.02 | 6.68 |
| Mike Timlin | RP | 1 | 8.04 |
| Giovanni Carrara | RP | 0.62 | 6.77 |
| Kelvim Escobar | RP | 0.53 | 9.14 |
| Carlos Almanzar | SW | 0.24 | 0.94 |
| Jim Mann | RP | 0.18 | 1.02 |
| Jose Silva | RP | 0.11 | 1.38 |
| Brian Bowles | RP | 0.04 | 1.37 |
| Gary Glover | SP | 0.03 | 4.54 |
| Mark Lukasiewicz | RP | 0 | 1.17 |
| Aaron Small | RP | -0.08 | 0 |
| Pasqual Coco | RP | -0.13 | 0 |
| Tom Davey | RP | -0.36 | 0.17 |
| Todd Stottlemyre | SP | -0.38 | 0 |
| Scott Cassidy | RP | -0.43 | 1.67 |
| Mike Smith | SP | -0.45 | 0 |
| Bob File | RP | -0.47 | 0 |
| Graeme Lloyd | RP | -0.53 | 1.89 |
| Pat Hentgen | SP | -0.54 | 0 |
| Brandon Lyon | SP | -0.56 | 0 |
The “Original” 2002 Toronto Blue Jays roster
| NAME | POS | WAR | WS | General Manager | Scouting Director |
| Roy Halladay | SP | 6.74 | 21.67 | Gord Ash | Bob Engle |
| Shawn Green | RF | 6.18 | 32.07 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Jeff Kent | 2B | 6.04 | 29.93 | Pat Gillick | |
| Carlos Delgado | 1B | 4.76 | 25.97 | Pat Gillick | |
| John Olerud | 1B | 4.64 | 25.92 | Pat Gillick | |
| David Wells | SP | 3.99 | 14.79 | Pat Gillick | |
| Woody Williams | SP | 3.2 | 9.65 | Pat Gillick | |
| Alex Gonzalez | SS | 2.78 | 14.36 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Shannon Stewart | LF | 2.37 | 18.47 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Chris Woodward | SS | 2.17 | 11.74 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Steve Karsay | RP | 2.01 | 11 | Pat Gillick | |
| Josh Phelps | DH | 1.46 | 9.8 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| Billy Koch | RP | 1.44 | 18.37 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| Ben Weber | RP | 1.33 | 10.48 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Jose Mesa | RP | 1.28 | 12.4 | Pat Gillick | |
| Mark Hendrickson | SP | 1.23 | 4.01 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| Orlando Hudson | 2B | 1.17 | 5.89 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| David Weathers | RP | 1.02 | 6.68 | Pat Gillick | |
| Mike Timlin | RP | 1 | 8.04 | Pat Gillick | |
| Craig Wilson | RF | 0.95 | 10.78 | Gord Ash | Bob Engle |
| Vernon Wells | CF | 0.83 | 16.7 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| Giovanni Carrara | RP | 0.62 | 6.77 | Pat Gillick | |
| Jay Gibbons | RF | 0.59 | 11.97 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| Greg Myers | C | 0.57 | 5.57 | Pat Gillick | |
| Kelvim Escobar | RP | 0.53 | 9.14 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Chris Carpenter | SP | 0.41 | 2.73 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Carlos Almanzar | SW | 0.24 | 0.94 | Pat Gillick | |
| Jim Mann | RP | 0.18 | 1.02 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Ryan Thompson | LF | 0.14 | 2.84 | Pat Gillick | |
| Jose Silva | RP | 0.11 | 1.38 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Felipe Lopez | SS | 0.08 | 5.8 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| Pat Borders | DH | 0.06 | 0.36 | Pat Gillick | |
| Brian Bowles | RP | 0.04 | 1.37 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Abraham Nunez | 2B | 0.04 | 4.88 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Gary Glover | SP | 0.03 | 4.54 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Mark Lukasiewicz | RP | 0 | 1.17 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Chris Stynes | 3B | -0.02 | 3.46 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Aaron Small | RP | -0.08 | 0 | Pat Gillick | |
| Casey Blake | 3B | -0.11 | 0.11 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| Pasqual Coco | RP | -0.13 | 0 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Kevin Cash | C | -0.14 | 0.08 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| Mike Coolbaugh | 3B | -0.17 | 0.16 | Pat Gillick | |
| Tom Davey | RP | -0.36 | 0.17 | Pat Gillick | Bob Engle |
| Todd Stottlemyre | SP | -0.38 | 0 | Pat Gillick | |
| Scott Cassidy | RP | -0.43 | 1.67 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| Brent Abernathy | 2B | -0.44 | 4.99 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| Mike Smith | SP | -0.45 | 0 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| Bob File | RP | -0.47 | 0 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| Graeme Lloyd | RP | -0.53 | 1.89 | Pat Gillick | |
| Pat Hentgen | SP | -0.54 | 0 | Pat Gillick | |
| Brandon Lyon | SP | -0.56 | 0 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| Michael Young | 2B | -0.63 | 10.72 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| Cesar Izturis | SS | -0.68 | 3.77 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
| Joe Lawrence | 2B | -0.83 | 1.48 | Gord Ash | Tim Wilken |
Honorable Mention
The “Original” 2001 Blue Jays OWAR: 51.5 OWS: 297 OPW%: .547
Toronto outpaced Boston to claim the A.L. East by a four-game margin. Shawn Green dialed long distance 49 times and plated 125 baserunners. John Olerud (.302/21/95) earned his second All-Star nod. Carlos Delgado launched 39 moon-shots and Jeff Kent drilled a career-high 49 two-baggers.
On Deck
The “Original” 1953 Braves
References and Resources
Baseball America – Executive Database
James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.
James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.
Derek Bain is a New Jersey native with a passion for baseball, statistics, computers and video games. He has written a number of articles for Fangraphs and Seamheads, and enjoys spending quality time with his family.