Author Archive

Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2002 Blue Jays

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 2002 Toronto Blue Jays 

OWAR: 51.4     OWS: 312     OPW%: .572     (93-69)

AWAR: 34.2      AWS: 234     APW%: .481     (78-84)

WARdiff: 17.2                        WSdiff: 78  

The 2002 “Original” Blue Jays breezed to the American League East title, vanquishing the Yankees by a nine-game margin. Toronto topped the American League in OWAR and OWS. Shawn Green (.285/42/114) registered 110 tallies, achieved his second All-Star appearance and finished fifth in the MVP balloting. Jeff Kent (.313/37/108) drilled 42 doubles and attained a career-high in home runs. Carlos Delgado belted 33 round-trippers and coaxed 102 bases on balls. John Olerud (.300/22/102) laced 39 two-base hits and collected the Gold Glove Award. In the midst of five straight seasons with a batting average above .300, Shannon Stewart sliced 38 doubles and scored 103 runs. Vernon Wells reached the century mark in RBI and added 34 two-base knocks in his first full season. The “Actual” squad featured 2002 AL Rookie of the Year Eric Hinske (.279/24/84) at the hot corner.

Jeff Kent placed forty-eighth among second-sackers in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings while John Olerud secured the 53rd slot at first base.

Original 2002 Blue Jays                            Actual 2002 Blue Jays

STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS STARTING LINEUP POS AWAR AWS
Shannon Stewart LF 2.37 18.47 Shannon Stewart LF 2.37 18.47
Vernon Wells CF 0.83 16.7 Vernon Wells CF 0.83 16.7
Shawn Green RF 6.18 32.07 Jose L. Cruz RF/LF 1.73 12.62
John Olerud DH/1B 4.64 25.92 Josh Phelps DH 1.46 9.8
Carlos Delgado 1B 4.76 25.97 Carlos Delgado 1B 4.76 25.97
Jeff Kent 2B 6.04 29.93 Dave Berg 2B 0.18 8.61
Alex S. Gonzalez SS 2.78 14.36 Chris Woodward SS 2.17 11.74
Chris Stynes 3B -0.02 3.46 Eric Hinske 3B 3.8 21.81
Greg Myers C 0.57 5.57 Tom Wilson C 0.43 5.88
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS AWAR AWS
Jay Gibbons RF 0.59 11.97 Raul Mondesi RF 0.08 6.33
Chris Woodward SS 2.17 11.74 Orlando Hudson 2B 1.17 5.89
Craig A. Wilson RF 0.95 10.78 Felipe Lopez SS 0.08 5.8
Michael Young 2B -0.63 10.72 Ken Huckaby C -1.24 1.78
Josh Phelps DH 1.46 9.8 Joe Lawrence 2B -0.83 1.48
Orlando Hudson 2B 1.17 5.89 Dewayne Wise RF -0.42 1.39
Felipe Lopez SS 0.08 5.8 Jayson Werth RF 0.04 0.77
Brent Abernathy 2B -0.44 4.99 Homer Bush 2B -0.27 0.75
Abraham Nunez 2B 0.04 4.88 Darrin Fletcher C -0.44 0.64
Cesar Izturis SS -0.68 3.77 Brian Lesher 1B -0.5 0.23
Ryan Thompson LF 0.14 2.84 Kevin Cash C -0.14 0.08
Joe Lawrence 2B -0.83 1.48 Pedro Swann DH -0.18 0
Pat Borders DH 0.06 0.36
Mike Coolbaugh 3B -0.17 0.16
Casey Blake 3B -0.11 0.11
Kevin Cash C -0.14 0.08

Roy “Doc” Halladay (19-7, 2.93) warranted his first All-Star invitation and led the American League with 239.1 innings pitched. David “Boomer” Wells compiled 19 victories with a 3.75 ERA. Toronto’s superb bullpen staff was anchored by Billy Koch (3.27, 44 SV) and Jose Mesa (2.97, 45 SV). The setup corps consisted of Steve Karsay (3.26, 12 SV), Ben Weber (7-2, 2.54) and Kelvim Escobar (4.27, 38 SV).

Original 2002 Blue Jays                          Actual 2002 Blue Jays

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Roy Halladay SP 6.74 21.67 Roy Halladay SP 6.74 21.67
David Wells SP 3.99 14.79 Pete Walker SP 1.85 8.74
Woody Williams SP 3.2 9.65 Mark Hendrickson SP 1.23 4.01
Gary Glover SP 0.03 4.54 Esteban Loaiza SP -0.15 3.86
Mark Hendrickson SP 1.23 4.01 Justin Miller SP -0.23 3.4
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS AWAR AWS
Billy Koch RP 1.44 18.37 Kelvim Escobar RP 0.53 9.14
Jose Mesa RP 1.28 12.4 Cliff Politte RP 1.05 6.49
Steve Karsay RP 2.01 11 Corey Thurman RP 0.54 3.66
Ben Weber RP 1.33 10.48 Felix Heredia RP 0.09 3.12
Kelvim Escobar RP 0.53 9.14 Scott Eyre RP 0.11 2.83
Mike Timlin RP 1 8.04 Chris Carpenter SP 0.41 2.73
Giovanni Carrara RP 0.62 6.77 Steve Parris SP 0 1.88
David Weathers RP 1.02 6.68 Scott Cassidy RP -0.43 1.67
Chris Carpenter SP 0.41 2.73 Dan Plesac RP 0.33 1.39
Graeme Lloyd RP -0.53 1.89 Brian Bowles RP 0.04 1.37
Scott Cassidy RP -0.43 1.67 Jason Kershner RP 0.12 0.65
Jose Silva RP 0.11 1.38 Pedro Borbon RP -0.07 0.48
Brian Bowles RP 0.04 1.37 Scott Wiggins RP 0.05 0.2
Mark Lukasiewicz RP 0 1.17 Pasqual Coco RP -0.13 0
Jim Mann RP 0.18 1.02 Brian Cooper SP -0.59 0
Carlos Almanzar SW 0.24 0.94 Bob File RP -0.47 0
Tom Davey RP -0.36 0.17 Brandon Lyon SP -0.56 0
Pasqual Coco RP -0.13 0 Luke Prokopec SP -0.91 0
Bob File RP -0.47 0 Mike Smith SP -0.45 0
Pat Hentgen SP -0.54 0
Brandon Lyon SP -0.56 0
Aaron Small RP -0.08 0
Mike Smith SP -0.45 0
Todd Stottlemyre SP -0.38 0

Notable Transactions

Shawn Green 

November 8, 1999: Traded by the Toronto Blue Jays with Jorge Nunez (minors) to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Pedro Borbon and Raul Mondesi. 

Jeff Kent 

August 27, 1992: Traded by the Toronto Blue Jays with a player to be named later to the New York Mets for David Cone. The Toronto Blue Jays sent Ryan Thompson (September 1, 1992) to the New York Mets to complete the trade.

July 29, 1996: Traded by the New York Mets with Jose Vizcaino to the Cleveland Indians for Carlos Baerga and Alvaro Espinoza.

November 13, 1996: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with a player to be named later, Julian Tavarez and Jose Vizcaino to the San Francisco Giants for a player to be named later and Matt Williams. The Cleveland Indians sent Joe Roa (December 16, 1996) to the San Francisco Giants to complete the trade. The San Francisco Giants sent Trent Hubbard (December 16, 1996) to the Cleveland Indians to complete the trade. 

John Olerud 

December 20, 1996: Traded by the Toronto Blue Jays with cash to the New York Mets for Robert Person.

October 27, 1997: Granted Free Agency.

November 24, 1997: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Mets.

October 29, 1999: Granted Free Agency.

December 15, 1999: Signed as a Free Agent with the Seattle Mariners. 

Billy Koch

December 7, 2001: Traded by the Toronto Blue Jays to the Oakland Athletics for Eric Hinske and Justin Miller.

Honorable Mention

The 1995 Toronto Blue Jays 

OWAR: 27.1     OWS: 208     OPW%: .469     (76-86)

AWAR: 25.4       AWS: 168      APW%: .389    (56-88)

WARdiff: 1.7                        WSdiff: 40

The “Original” ’95 Jays plodded to a fourth-place finish in the AL East, eleven games behind the Orioles while the horrific “Actuals” placed 30 games behind the Red Sox. David Wells delivered a 16-8 record with a 3.24 ERA and made his first appearance at the Mid-Summer Classic. Jose Mesa (1.13, 46 SV) blossomed in the closer’s role, meriting second place in the Cy Young Award balloting along with a fourth-place finish in the MVP race. Derek Bell pilfered 27 bases and established personal-bests in BA (.334) and OBP (.385). Fellow outfielder Glenallen Hill clubbed 24 long balls and set career-highs with 86 RBI and 25 stolen bases. Geronimo Berroa clubbed 22 taters and knocked in 88 runs. Jeff Kent contributed 20 dingers and John Olerud socked 32 doubles.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1902 Cubs

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive

 


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1992 Padres

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1992 San Diego Padres 

OWAR: 52.6     OWS: 324     OPW%: .595     (96-66)

AWAR: 37.3      AWS: 246     APW%: .506     (82-80)

WARdiff: 15.3                        WSdiff: 78  

The ’92 Friars fiercely engaged the Braves but when the dust settled, the San Diego crew emerged two games behind Atlanta. The Padres led National League in OWAR and OWS. Roberto Alomar (.310/8/76) nabbed 49 bags in 58 attempts and registered 105 tallies. Carlos Baerga (.312/20/105) collected 205 base knocks, rapped 32 doubles and merited his first All-Star selection. Shane Mack supplied a .315 BA and scored 101 runs. Dave Winfield drilled 33 two-baggers, walloped 26 big-flies and plated 108 baserunners. Dave “Head” Hollins manned the hot corner and responded to full-time status with personal-bests in home runs (27), RBI (93) and runs scored (104). John Kruk laced 30 two-base hits and posted a .323 BA. In the final season of a 13-year consecutive Gold Glove Award streak, Ozzie Smith aka “The Wizard of Oz” delivered a .295 BA and succeeded on 43 of 52 stolen base tries. “Mr. Padre” Tony Gwynn contributed a .317 BA with 27 doubles.

Gary Sheffield (.330/33/100) and Fred “Crime Dog” McGriff secured their first invitations to the Mid-Summer Classic and accounted for a substantial chunk of the “Actuals” offensive production. “Sheff” claimed the batting title and placed third in the 1992 NL MVP balloting. McGriff topped the Senior Circuit with 35 bombs while driving in 104 runs.

Tony Gwynn rated sixth among right fielders in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” San Diego teammates enumerated in the “NBJHBA” top 100 lists include Ozzie Smith (7th-SS), Roberto Alomar (10th-2B), Dave Winfield (13th-RF), Kevin McReynolds (45th-LF), John Kruk (72nd-1B), Ozzie Guillen (74th-SS) and Carlos Baerga (93rd-2B). Fred McGriff (21st-1B), Tony Fernandez (24th-SS) and Gary Sheffield (54th-RF) attained top-100 status among those who played exclusively for the “Actual” 1992 Padres.

  Original 1992 Padres                               Actual 1992 Padres

STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS
Shane Mack LF 6.17 27.47 Jerald Clark LF -0.67 9.94
Thomas Howard CF/LF 0.05 6.44 Darrin Jackson CF 0.46 13.54
Tony Gwynn RF 1.69 17.86 Tony Gwynn RF 1.69 17.86
John Kruk 1B 4.35 25.38 Fred McGriff 1B 3.6 27.38
Roberto Alomar 2B 5.37 31.53 Tim Teufel 2B -0.48 5.17
Ozzie Smith SS 3.24 22.13 Tony Fernandez SS 1.41 18.31
Dave Hollins 3B 3.61 25.6 Gary Sheffield 3B 5.92 32.28
Sandy Alomar, Jr. C 0.09 8.2 Benito Santiago C 0.81 8.17
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS AWAR AWS
Carlos Baerga 2B 4.83 28.54 Dan Walters C 0.36 5.43
Dave Winfield DH 3.53 25.75 Kurt Stillwell 2B -1.98 4.93
Kevin McReynolds LF 1.27 12.89 Craig Shipley SS -0.37 1.61
Jerald Clark LF -0.67 9.94 Tom Lampkin C 0.21 1.03
Benito Santiago C 0.81 8.17 Paul Faries 2B 0.19 0.82
Warren Newson RF 0.25 4.04 Guillermo Velasquez 1B 0.08 0.7
Joey Cora 2B 0.66 3.98 Dann Bilardello C -0.3 0.59
Ron Tingley C 0.13 3.36 Jim Vatcher RF 0.02 0.54
Mark Parent C 0.25 1.42 Kevin Ward LF -0.8 0.52
Paul Faries 2B 0.19 0.82 Oscar Azocar LF -1.14 0.44
Guillermo Velasquez 1B 0.08 0.7 Jeff Gardner 2B -0.22 0.27
Gary Green SS 0.08 0.46 Gary Pettis CF -0.08 0.24
Rodney McCray RF 0.09 0.45 Phil Stephenson LF -0.5 0.19
Ozzie Guillen SS -0.01 0.41 Thomas Howard 0 0.05
Mike Humphreys LF -0.15 0.12
Jim Tatum 3B -0.1 0.08
Luis Quinones DH -0.04 0.02
Jose Valentin 2B -0.03 0

Andy Benes fortified the “Original” and “Actual” Padres rotations with 13 victories and a 3.35 ERA. Rich Rodriguez and Mike Maddux enhanced the “Actuals” bullpen with identical 2.37 ERA’s while southpaw Bruce Hurst contributed to the starting rotation with a 14-9 record. Omar Olivares registered 9 wins with a 3.84 ERA and Bob Patterson posted a career-best 2.92 ERA for the “Originals”.

  Original 1992 Padres                                Actual 1992 Padres

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Andy Benes SP 4.22 15.68 Andy Benes SP 4.22 15.68
Omar Olivares SP 1.89 8.33 Bruce Hurst SP 2.56 12.47
Jimmy Jones SP 0.41 4.89 Craig Lefferts SP 1.27 9.7
Ricky Bones SP -0.35 4.22 Frank Seminara SP 0.93 6.47
Greg W. Harris SP 0.4 3.81 Jim Deshaies SP 1.39 5.78
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS AWAR AWS
Bob Patterson RP 0.95 7.52 Rich Rodriguez RP 1.6 9.21
Jim Austin RP 1.21 6.79 Mike Maddux RP 1.56 8.9
Mitch Williams RP -0.27 4.99 Jose Melendez RP 1.28 7.3
Mark Williamson RP 0.4 2.48 Randy Myers RP -0.04 7.16
Steve Fireovid RP -0.18 0.3 Larry Andersen RP 0.31 3.6
Matt Maysey RP -0.01 0.08 Greg W. Harris SP 0.4 3.81
Doug Brocail SP -0.23 0 Pat Clements RP 0.22 2.12
Jeremy Hernandez RP 0.05 1.49
Gene Harris RP 0.31 1.37
Tim Scott RP -0.65 0.91
Doug Brocail SP -0.23 0
Dave Eiland SP -0.51 0

Notable Transactions

Roberto Alomar 

December 5, 1990: Traded by the San Diego Padres with Joe Carter to the Toronto Blue Jays for Tony Fernandez and Fred McGriff. 

Carlos Baerga 

December 6, 1989: Traded by the San Diego Padres with Sandy Alomar and Chris James to the Cleveland Indians for Joe Carter. 

Shane Mack 

December 4, 1989: Drafted by the Minnesota Twins from the San Diego Padres in the 1989 rule 5 draft. 

Dave Winfield

October 22, 1980: Granted Free Agency.

December 15, 1980: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Yankees.

May 11, 1990: Traded by the New York Yankees to the California Angels for Mike Witt.

October 30, 1991: Granted Free Agency.

December 19, 1991: Signed as a Free Agent with the Toronto Blue Jays. 

Dave Hollins

December 4, 1989: Drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies from the San Diego Padres in the 1989 rule 5 draft.

Ozzie Smith

Traded by the San Diego Padres with a player to be named later and Steve Mura to the St. Louis Cardinals for a player to be named later, Sixto Lezcano and Garry Templeton. The San Diego Padres sent Al Olmsted (February 19, 1982) to the St. Louis Cardinals to complete the trade. The St. Louis Cardinals sent Luis DeLeon (February 19, 1982) to the San Diego Padres to complete the trade.

Honorable Mention

The 1986 San Diego Padres 

OWAR: 47.6     OWS: 298     OPW%: .518     (84-78)

AWAR: 29.2       AWS: 222      APW%: .457    (74-88)

WARdiff: 18.4                        WSdiff: 76

The ’86 Padres ended the season in a virtual tie with the Dodgers. Tony Gwynn (.329/14/51) paced the Senior Circuit with 211 base hits and 107 runs scored. He swiped 37 bases in 46 attempts and collected his first Gold Glove Award. Kevin McReynolds (.288/26/96) began a streak of five successive seasons with at least 20 round-trippers. Ozzie Smith succeeded on 31 of 38 stolen base attempts. Dave Winfield crushed 24 moon-shots and plated 104 baserunners. Johnny Grubb contributed a .333 BA with 13 jacks in a part-time role and John Kruk delivered a .309 BA in his inaugural campaign. Eric Show fashioned a 2.97 ERA and tallied 9 victories for the San Diego starting staff.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2002 Blue Jays

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1978 Pirates

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1978 Pittsburgh Pirates 

OWAR: 49.0     OWS: 345     OPW%: .559     (91-71)

AWAR: 40.0      AWS: 263     APW%: .547     (88-73)

WARdiff: 9.0                        WSdiff: 82  

Pittsburgh emerged victorious from a three-team battle with Montreal and Philadelphia for the National League Eastern Division crown. The “Original” Pirates paced the Senior Circuit in OWS and accrued an 82-point Win Shares differential compared to the “Actual” Bucs.

Dave Parker (.334/30/117) collected his second straight batting crown and earned NL MVP and Gold Glove honors. “Cobra” scored 102 runs and topped the League with 340 total bases and a .585 SLG. Willie Randolph recorded 36 steals in 43 attempts and coaxed 82 bases on balls. Willie “Pops” Stargell (.295/28/97) achieved All-Star status for the seventh time. Al “Scoop” Oliver drilled 35 two-base knocks and posted a .324 BA. Mitchell Page (.285/17/70) supplied a solid sophomore season after placing runner-up in the Rookie of the Year balloting in the previous campaign. Don Money batted .293 with 30 doubles to secure his fourth All-Star invitation. Omar Moreno and Frank Taveras ran wild on the base paths, swiping 71 and 46 bases, respectively.

Willie Stargell rated ninth among left fielders in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Pirates teammates registered in the “NBJHBA” top 100 rankings include Dave Parker (14th-RF), Willie Randolph (17th-2B), Al Oliver (31st-CF), Manny Sanguillen (42nd-C), Dave Cash (50th-2B), Don Money (55th-3B), Richie Hebner (56th-3B), Richie Zisk (69th-RF), Freddie Patek (73rd-SS), Bob Bailey (79th-3B), Tony Armas (89th-RF) and Rennie Stennett (90th-2B). Jim Fregosi (15th-SS), Bert Blyleven (39th-P) and Phil Garner (41st-2B) achieved top-100 status among the individuals who played solely for the “Actual” 1978 Pirates.

  Original 1978 Pirates                                Actual 1978 Pirates

STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS STARTING LINEUP POS AWAR AWS
Al Oliver LF 3.24 21.42 Bill Robinson LF 0.33 13.75
Omar Moreno CF 2.02 18.08 Omar Moreno CF 2.02 18.08
Dave Parker RF 6.91 36.75 Dave Parker RF 6.91 36.75
Willie Stargell 1B 2.42 22 Willie Stargell 1B 2.42 22
Willie Randolph 2B 5.16 22.83 Rennie Stennett 2B 0.34 4.95
Craig Reynolds SS 3.09 17.66 Frank Taveras SS 0.76 16.43
Don Money 3B/1B 3.32 18.96 Phil Garner 3B 2.86 19.58
Milt May C 0.94 8.46 Ed Ott C 1.3 11.76
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS AWAR AWS
Mitchell Page LF 2.34 20.02 John Milner LF 0.93 10.1
Frank Taveras SS 0.76 16.43 Manny Sanguillen 1B -0.29 3.57
Richie Hebner 1B 2.81 16.19 Dale Berra 3B -0.14 2.82
Art Howe 2B 3.09 15.77 Duffy Dyer C -0.52 2.36
Richie Zisk DH 1.25 15.11 Steve Brye LF -0.11 2.26
Ed Ott C 1.3 11.76 Mario Mendoza 2B 0.05 1.32
Dave Cash 2B -0.6 11.31 Ken Macha 3B -0.1 1.08
Freddie Patek SS 0.28 10.8 Jim Fregosi 3B 0.05 0.52
Mike Edwards 2B -1.12 6.07 Alberto Lois LF 0.04 0.29
Rennie Stennett 2B 0.34 4.95 Cito Gaston LF 0.02 0.13
Bob Robertson DH 0.17 4.07 Fernando Gonzalez 2B -0.15 0.08
Gene Clines LF -0.56 3.66 Steve Nicosia C -0.06 0.05
Manny Sanguillen 1B -0.29 3.57 Doe Boyland 1B -0.05 0.01
Miguel Dilone LF -0.75 3.31 Matt Alexander -0.01 0
Tony Armas RF -0.36 2.95 Dave May -0.03 0
Jimmy Sexton SS 0.3 2.94
Dale Berra 3B -0.14 2.82
Bob Bailey DH -0.09 1.73
Mario Mendoza 2B 0.05 1.32
Ken Macha 3B -0.1 1.08
Nelson Norman SS -0.14 0.7
Alberto Lois LF 0.04 0.29
Butch Alberts DH -0.06 0.2
Steve Nicosia C -0.06 0.05
Doe Boyland 1B -0.05 0.01

Don “Caveman” Robinson (14-6, 3.47) produced a WHIP of 1.139 and placed third in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting. “The Candy Man” John Candelaria contributed 12 victories and a 3.24 ERA following a 20-win effort in the previous campaign. The bullpen trifecta consisted of Doug Bair (1.97, 28 SV), Gene Garber (2.15, 25 SV) and Kent Tekulve (2.33, 31 SV). Bert Blyleven tallied 14 victories for the “Actuals” while posting a 3.03 ERA.

  Original 1978 Pirates                               Actual 1978 Pirates

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Don Robinson SP 2.63 14.13 Bert Blyleven SP 3.65 16.94
John Candelaria SP 3.29 12.87 Don Robinson SP 2.63 14.13
Rick Langford SP 2.1 10.57 John Candelaria SP 3.29 12.87
Silvio Martinez SP 0.33 6.43 Bruce Kison SP 1.12 6.08
Bruce Kison SP 1.12 6.08 Jim Bibby SP 0.41 5.92
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS AWAR AWS
Gene Garber RP 3.45 20.73 Kent Tekulve RP 2.88 19.7
Kent Tekulve RP 2.88 19.7 Grant Jackson RP 0.63 6.21
Doug Bair RP 3.83 17.45 Ed Whitson RP 0.56 5.44
Ed Whitson RP 0.56 5.44 Dave Hamilton RP -0.35 0.91
Clay Carroll RP 0.1 0.42
Dock Ellis SP -0.72 5.39 Jim Rooker SP -0.73 4.76
Woodie Fryman SP -0.04 5.17 Jerry Reuss SP -0.45 1.57
Rick Honeycutt SP -0.6 3.45 Odell Jones SP 0.18 1.17
Odell Jones SP 0.18 1.17 Will McEnaney RP -0.66 0

Notable Transactions

Willie Randolph 

December 11, 1975: Traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates with Ken Brett and Dock Ellis to the New York Yankees for Doc Medich. 

Al Oliver 

December 8, 1977: Traded as part of a 4-team trade by the Pittsburgh Pirates with Nelson Norman to the Texas Rangers. The Atlanta Braves sent Willie Montanez to the New York Mets. The Texas Rangers sent Tommy Boggs, Adrian Devine and Eddie Miller to the Atlanta Braves. The Texas Rangers sent a player to be named later and Tom Grieve to the New York Mets. The Texas Rangers sent Bert Blyleven to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The New York Mets sent Jon Matlack to the Texas Rangers. The New York Mets sent John Milner to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Texas Rangers sent Ken Henderson (March 15, 1978) to the New York Mets to complete the trade. 

Mitchell Page 

March 15, 1977: Traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates with Tony Armas, Doug Bair, Dave Giusti, Rick Langford and Doc Medich to the Oakland Athletics for Chris Batton, Phil Garner and Tommy Helms. 

Gene Garber

October 25, 1972: Traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Kansas City Royals for Jim Rooker.

July 12, 1974: Purchased by the Philadelphia Phillies from the Kansas City Royals. 

Don Money

December 15, 1967: Traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates with Harold Clem (minors), Woodie Fryman and Bill Laxton to the Philadelphia Phillies for Jim Bunning.

October 31, 1972: Traded by the Philadelphia Phillies with Bill Champion and John Vukovich to the Milwaukee Brewers for Ken Brett, Jim Lonborg, Ken Sanders and Earl Stephenson.

Craig Reynolds

December 7, 1976: Traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates with Jimmy Sexton to the Seattle Mariners for Grant Jackson.

Honorable Mention

The 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates 

OWAR: 46.1     OWS: 303     OPW%: .597     (97-65)

AWAR: 24.2       AWS: 236      APW%: .488    (79-83)

WARdiff: 21.9                        WSdiff: 67

The “Original” 2012 Bucs bested the Brew Crew by four games and trounced the “Actuals” by an 18-game margin. Andrew McCutchen (.327/31/96) established personal bests in batting average, home runs, RBI, runs (107), hits (194) and SLG (.553). He placed third in the NL MVP race and earned his first Gold Glove Award. Aramis Ramirez (.300/27/105) topped the circuit with 50 two-base hits. Pedro “El Toro” Alvarez dialed long distance 30 times and knocked in 85 baserunners. Jose A. Bautista bashed 27 long balls despite missing nearly half the season due to injury. Jeff Keppinger boasted a .325 BA in a platoon role.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1992 Padres

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1904 Superbas

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1904 Brooklyn Superbas 

OWAR: 36.2     OWS: 250     OPW%: .500     (77-77)

AWAR: 21.5      AWS: 167     APW%: .366     (56-97)

WARdiff: 14.7                        WSdiff: 83  

Brooklyn placed fifth in ’04 as the Giants battered the opposition en route to the National League pennant. The “Original” Superbas bettered the “Actuals” by 19 games. Fielder Jones registered 25 stolen bases and Jimmy Sheckard added 21 for Brooklyn. “Honest” John Anderson and Claude “Little All Right” Ritchey laced 12 three-base hits apiece. Rookie outfielder Harry “Judge” Lumley paced the League with 18 triples and 9 home runs.

Jimmy Sheckard placed twenty-fourth among left fielders in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Superbas teammates listed in the “NBJHBA” top 100 rankings include Jimmy Sheckard (24th-LF), Fielder Jones (41st-RF), Claude Ritchey (59th-2B) and John J. Anderson (86th-LF).

  Original 1904 Superbas                                Actual 1904 Superbas

LINEUP POS OWAR OWS LINEUP POS OWAR OWS
Jimmy Sheckard LF 2.52 11.24 Jimmy Sheckard LF 2.52 11.24
Fielder Jones CF 4.16 22.7 Doc Gessler CF 0.93 11.12
Harry Lumley RF 2.37 19.43 Harry Lumley RF 2.37 19.43
John J. Anderson 1B/CF 0.64 18.84 Pop Dillon 1B 1.2 10.64
Claude Ritchey 2B 3.28 21.25 Sammy Strang 2B -0.27 3.56
Charlie Babb SS 1.61 18.36
Jack Dunn 3B 0.98 9.05 Mike McCormick 3B -0.9 5.68
Lew Ritter C 0.62 6.48 Lew Ritter C 0.62 6.48
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS OWAR OWS
Candy LaChance 1B -2.98 8.02 John Dobbs CF -0.06 6.46
Mike McCormick 3B -0.9 5.68 Bill Bergen C -1.42 5.04
Emil Batch 3B -0.25 2.43 Emil Batch 3B -0.25 2.43
Dutch Jordan 2B -3.03 0.83 Fred Jacklitsch 1B 0.11 1.77
Deacon Van Buren LF -0.09 0.8 Jack Doyle 1B 0.09 0.89
Aleck Smith CF -0.21 0.37 Dutch Jordan 2B -3.03 0.83
Charlie Loudenslager 2B -0.03 0 Deacon Van Buren LF 0.05 0.18
Charlie Loudenslager 2B -0.03 0

Harry Howell accrued 21 losses in spite of a 2.19 ERA and a WHIP of 1.048. Oscar “Flip Flap” Jones completed 38 of 41 starts and recorded a 17-25 mark with a 2.75 ERA. Jack Cronin contributed 12 wins in his final campaign along with an ERA of 2.70.

  Original 1904 Superbas                             Actual 1904 Superbas

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS OWAR OWS
Harry Howell SP 4.69 21.24 Oscar Jones SP 0.11 17.31
Oscar Jones SP 0.11 17.31 Jack Cronin SP 1.14 14.99
Jack Cronin SP 1.14 14.99 Ned Garvin SP 0.28 10.19
Doc Reisling SP 0.94 3.67 Doc Scanlan SP 1.02 6.89
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS
Bull Durham SP 0.03 0.83 Ed Poole SP -0.48 6.52
Joe Koukalik SP 0.07 0.49 Doc Reisling SP 0.94 3.67
Grant Thatcher RP -0.19 0.26 Fred Mitchell SP -0.32 1.96
Gene Wright SP -0.38 0 Bull Durham SP 0.03 0.83
Jack Doscher RP 0.24 0.79
Joe Koukalik SP 0.07 0.49
Grant Thatcher RP -0.19 0.26
Bill Reidy SP -1.42 0

Notable Transactions

Fielder Jones 

Before 1901 Season: Jumped from the Brooklyn Superbas to the Chicago White Sox. 

Claude Ritchey 

Before 1897 Season: Purchased by the Cincinnati Reds from the Brooklyn Bridegrooms for $500.

February 3, 1898: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds with Red Ehret and Dummy Hoy to the Louisville Colonels for Bill Hill.

December 8, 1899: Traded by the Louisville Colonels with Fred Clarke, Bert Cunningham, Mike Kelley, Tacks Latimer, Tommy Leach, Tom Messitt, Deacon Phillippe, Rube Waddell, Jack Wadsworth, Honus Wagner and Chief Zimmer to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Jack Chesbro, George Fox, Art Madison, John O’Brien and $25,000. 

John J. Anderson 

May 19, 1898: Sent to the Washington Senators by the Brooklyn Bridegrooms as part of a conditional deal.

September 21, 1898: Returned by the Washington Senators to the Brooklyn Bridegrooms as part of a conditional deal.

March 24, 1900: Purchased by Milwaukee (American) from the Brooklyn Superbas.

September 26, 1900: Drafted by the Brooklyn Superbas from Milwaukee (American) in the 1900 rule 5 draft.

February, 1901: Jumped from the Brooklyn Superbas to the Milwaukee Brewers. (Date given is approximate. Exact date is uncertain.)

October 6, 1903: Traded by the St. Louis Browns to the New York Highlanders for Jack O’Connor. 

Harry Howell

September, 1898: Purchased by the Brooklyn Bridegrooms from Meridan (Connecticut State).

March 11, 1899: Assigned to the Baltimore Orioles by the Brooklyn Superbas.

March, 1900: Assigned to the Brooklyn Superbas by the Baltimore Orioles.

Before 1901 Season: Jumped from the Brooklyn Superbas to the Baltimore Orioles.

Honorable Mention

The 1967 Los Angeles Dodgers 

OWAR: 45.4     OWS: 274     OPW%: .515     (83-79)

AWAR: 32.5       AWS: 218      APW%: .451    (73-89)

WARdiff: 12.9                        WSdiff: 56

The “Original” 1967 Dodgers placed fifth in the National League, 13 games behind the front-running Giants. Nevertheless the “Originals” outpaced the “Actuals” by a 10 game margin. Roberto Clemente (.357/23/110) collected his fourth batting crown, led the circuit with 209 base hits and secured the seventh of twelve consecutive Gold Glove Awards. Frank “Hondo” Howard dialed long distance 36 times. Maury Wills nabbed 29 bags and Tommy H. Davis scorched 32 doubles while producing matching batting averages at .302. Jim Merritt tallied 13 victories and delivered a 2.53 ERA along with a WHIP of 0.993. Don Drysdale equaled Merritt’s win total while fashioning an ERA of 2.74 with 196 strikeouts.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1978 Pirates

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1997 Red Sox 

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

 

Assessment

The 1997 Boston Red Sox 

OWAR: 63.7     OWS: 317     OPW%: .583     (94-68)

AWAR: 41.4      AWS: 234     APW%: .481     (78-84)

WARdiff: 22.3                        WSdiff: 83  

The “Original” 1997 Red Sox cruised to the pennant by a ten-game margin over the Yankees. Jeff Bagwell delivered a 30/30 season (43 HR / 31 SB), drove in a career-high 135 baserunners, rapped 40 doubles and coaxed 127 walks. Brady Anderson followed his 50-home run campaign in ’96 with 39 two-base knocks and 18 dingers. A trio of “Original” and “Actual” Sox infielders provided additional firepower in Boston’s stacked lineup. Nomar Garciaparra (.306/30/98) merited the 1997 AL Rookie of the Year Award as he registered 209 base hits, 122 runs scored, 44 doubles, 11 triples and 22 stolen bases. Mo “Hit Dog” Vaughn slammed 35 circuit clouts and supplied a .315 BA. John Valentin (.306/18/77) led the League with 47 two-baggers.

1B Jeff Bagwell and 3B Wade Boggs placed fourth at their respective positions in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Red Sox teammates specified in the “NBJHBA” top 100 rankings include Roger Clemens (11th-P), Mo Vaughn (51st-1B), Brady Anderson (63rd-CF) and Ellis Burks (77th-CF).

  Original 1997 Red Sox                                                             Actual 1997 Red Sox

LINEUP POS OWAR OWS LINEUP POS OWAR OWS
Ellis Burks LF/CF 1.03 13.6 Wil Cordero LF -1.26 10.76
Brady Anderson CF 3.44 25.97 Darren Bragg CF 0.28 10.71
Phil Plantier RF/LF -0.02 2.24 Troy O’Leary RF 0.36 13.57
Mo Vaughn DH/1B 3.2 22.31 Reggie Jefferson DH 0.46 10.31
Jeff Bagwell 1B 7.47 30.58 Mo Vaughn 1B 3.2 22.31
John Valentin 2B 4.45 21.03 John Valentin 2B 4.45 21.03
Nomar Garciaparra SS 4.19 25.54 Nomar Garciaparra SS 4.19 25.54
Wade Boggs 3B 1.26 11.37 Tim Naehring 3B 1 8.1
John Flaherty C 1.26 12.67 Scott Hatteberg C 2.21 6.4
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS OWAR OWS
Tim Naehring 3B 1 8.1 Jeff Frye 2B 1.43 12.16
Scott Hatteberg C 2.21 6.4 Mike Stanley DH 1.17 8.52
Todd Pratt C 0.63 4.46 Shane Mack CF 0.15 3.59
Ryan McGuire 1B -0.12 3.98 Mike Benjamin 3B -0.06 1.52
John Marzano C 0.05 2.39 Bill Haselman C 0.09 0.88
Jody Reed 2B -0.46 1.52 Rudy Pemberton RF -0.21 1.03
Danny Sheaffer 3B -0.71 0.79 Jesus Tavarez CF -0.59 0.56
Scott Cooper 3B -0.47 0.78 Curtis Pride 0.1 0.35
Michael Coleman CF -0.27 0.11 Arquimedez Pozo 3B -0.02 0.31
Jose Malave LF -0.08 0.04 Jason Varitek C 0.05 0.16
Walt McKeel C -0.04 0 Michael Coleman CF -0.27 0.11
Jose Malave LF -0.08 0.04
Walt McKeel C -0.04 0

Roger Clemens (21-7, 2.05) collected the 1997 AL Cy Young Award while posting a personal-best with 292 whiffs. Curt Schilling (17-11, 2.97) overpowered the opposition with a career-high 319 strikeouts. Paul Quantrill furnished a 1.94 ERA in 77 relief appearances. Tom “Flash” Gordon notched 11 saves for the “Actuals”.

  Original 1997 Red Sox                            Actual 1997 Red Sox

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Roger Clemens SP 12 32.22 Tom Gordon SP 3.72 15.2
Curt Schilling SP 5.93 22.29 Tim Wakefield SP 2.85 11.63
Aaron Sele SP 0.64 6.71 Aaron Sele SP 0.64 6.71
Frankie Rodriguez SP 0.93 5.97 Jeff Suppan SP 0.24 3.72
Jeff Suppan SP 0.24 3.72 Chris Hammond SP -0.23 1.7
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS AWAR AWS
Paul Quantrill RP 2.64 11.66 Butch Henry SW 1.81 8.78
Ron Mahay RP 0.71 3.4 John Wasdin SW 1.23 7
Joe Hudson RP 0.42 2.93 Jim Corsi RP 0.78 6.01
Shayne Bennett RP 0.34 1.51 Ron Mahay RP 0.71 3.4
Reggie Harris RP -0.22 1.37 Joe Hudson RP 0.42 2.93
Erik Plantenberg RP 0.06 1.07 Ricky Trlicek RP -0.06 1.29
Josias Manzanillo RP -0.17 0.28 Robinson Checo SP 0.41 1.24
Cory Bailey RP -0.33 0.21 Mark Brandenburg RP -0.12 1.21
Greg Hansell RP -0.24 0 Derek Lowe RP 0.29 1.17
Brian Rose SP -0.17 0 Heathcliff Slocumb RP -0.52 1.14
Ken Ryan RP -1.09 0 Steve Avery SP -0.9 0.99
Kerry Lacy RP -0.76 0.75
Vaughn Eshelman SP -0.37 0.72
Rich Garces RP -0.1 0.43
Bret Saberhagen SP -0.15 0.01
Toby Borland RP -0.28 0
Ken Grundt RP -0.11 0
Pat Mahomes RP -0.39 0
Brian Rose SP -0.17 0

Notable Transactions

Roger Clemens

November 5, 1996: Granted Free Agency.

December 13, 1996: Signed as a Free Agent with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Jeff Bagwell

August 30, 1990: Traded by the Boston Red Sox to the Houston Astros for Larry Andersen.

Brady Anderson 

July 29, 1988: Traded by the Boston Red Sox with Curt Schilling to the Baltimore Orioles for Mike Boddicker. 

Curt Schilling 

July 29, 1988: Traded by Boston Red Sox with Brady Anderson to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Mike Boddicker.

January 10, 1991: Traded by Baltimore Orioles with Pete Harnisch and Steve Finley to the Houston Astros in exchange for Glenn Davis.

April 2, 1992: Traded by Houston Astros to Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for Jason Grimsley.

December 20, 1995: Granted free agency.

December 21, 1995: Signed by Philadelphia Phillies.

Honorable Mention

The 1927 Boston Red Sox 

OWAR: 32.6     OWS: 230     OPW%: .463     (71-83)

AWAR: 13.7       AWS: 153      APW%: .331    (51-103)

WARdiff: 18.9                        WSdiff: 77

The “Original” 1927 Red Sox tied for last place with the Indians yet managed to finish 20 games better than the “Actual” squad. Babe Ruth (.356/60/165) established the single-season home run record and paced the Junior Circuit with 158 runs scored, 137 walks, a .486 OBP and a .772 SLG. Tris Speaker sported a .327 BA and laced 43 two-base hits in his penultimate season.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1904 Superbas

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive

 


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1969 Reds

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1969 Cincinnati Reds 

OWAR: 59.0     OWS: 355     OPW%: .619     (100-62)

AWAR: 37.4      AWS: 267     APW%: .549     (89-73)

WARdiff: 21.6                        WSdiff: 88  

The “Original” 1969 Reds outdistanced the Giants by a fourteen-game margin to secure the National League pennant. Pete Rose (.348/16/82) aka “Charlie Hustle” led the NL with 120 runs scored and registered personal-bests in home runs, RBI, batting average, OBP (.428) and SLG (.512). “The Toy Cannon”, center fielder Jim Wynn swatted 33 big-flies, nabbed 23 bags and tallied 113 runs. Completing the outfield trio with 30+ Win Shares, Frank “The Judge” Robinson crushed 32 long balls and knocked in 100 baserunners while posting a .308 BA.

The Cincinnati infield, with the exception of second-sacker Tommy Helms, produced 23+ Win Shares each. Tony “Big Dog” Perez (.294/37/122) manned the hot corner while the “Big Bopper”, Lee May (.278/38/110) earned his first All-Star assignment over at first base. Leo “Mr. Automatic” Cardenas (.280/10/70) provided a steady bat at shortstop. “Little General” Johnny Bench (.293/26/90) delivered an encore to his 1968 NL Rookie of the Year campaign. The Reds’ reserves featured the fleet-footed Cesar Tovar (.288, 45 SB) and Tommy Harper (73 SB) along with seven-time Gold Glove Award-winning center fielder Curt Flood.

Bench ranked second behind Yogi Berra at catcher in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Reds teammates enumerated in the “NBJHBA” top 100 rankings include Frank Robinson (3rd-RF), Pete Rose (5th-RF), Jim Wynn (10th-CF), Tony Perez (13th-1B), Vada Pinson (18th-CF), Curt Flood (36th-CF), Lee May (47th-1B), Leo Cardenas (50th-SS), Johnny Edwards (53rd-C), Tommy Harper (56th-LF), Cookie Rojas (69th-2B), Cesar Tovar (79th-CF), Tony Gonzalez (82nd-CF) and Tommy Helms (99th-2B).

  Original 1969 Reds                                                                     Actual 1969 Reds

LINEUP POS OWAR OWS LINEUP POS AWAR AWS
Frank Robinson LF/RF 5.31 31.84 Alex Johnson LF 2.86 18.84
Jim Wynn CF 7.36 36.09 Bobby Tolan CF 4.43 26.52
Pete Rose RF 4.83 36.77 Pete Rose RF 4.83 36.77
Lee May 1B 3.31 25.11 Lee May 1B 3.31 25.11
Tommy Helms 2B -0.93 5.57 Tommy Helms 2B -0.93 5.57
Leo Cardenas SS 2.81 23.74 Woody Woodward SS 0.45 5.83
Tony Perez 3B 5.77 30.41 Tony Perez 3B 5.77 30.41
Johnny Bench C 5.69 29.93 Johnny Bench C 5.69 29.93
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS AWAR AWS
Cesar Tovar CF 3.37 20.31 Jimmy Stewart LF -0.1 4.89
Curt Flood CF 2.14 19.71 Ted Savage LF 0.29 3.27
Tony Gonzalez CF 1.89 17.19 Pat Corrales C 0.28 2.82
Tommy Harper 3B 1.78 16.64 Chico Ruiz 2B 0.03 2.68
Art Shamsky RF 2.61 16.22 Darrel Chaney SS -1.23 1.8
Johnny Edwards C 1.94 14.95 Jim Beauchamp LF -0.06 0.99
Vada Pinson RF 0.11 10.97 Fred Whitfield 1B -0.24 0.36
Brant Alyea LF 0.62 6.52 Danny Breeden C -0.1 0.08
Joe Azcue C 0.61 6.49 Bernie Carbo -0.04 0
Don Pavletich C 0.5 4.96 Mike de la Hoz -0.01 0
Chico Ruiz 2B 0.03 2.68 Clyde Mashore -0.01 0
Cookie Rojas 2B -0.66 2.56
Vic Davalillo RF -0.21 2.26
Gus Gil 3B -0.64 1.8
Darrel Chaney SS -1.23 1.8
Len Boehmer 1B -0.91 0.58
Fred Kendall C -0.26 0.31
Bernie Carbo -0.04 0
Clyde Mashore -0.01 0

Claude Osteen (20-15, 2.66) established career-highs with 321 innings pitched, 41 starts, 16 complete games, 7 shutouts and 183 strikeouts. Mike Cuellar (23-8, 2.38) claimed the Cy Young Award and fashioned a personal-best 1.005 WHIP. Jim Maloney contributed a 12-5 mark with a 2.77 ERA as a member of the “Original” and “Actual” Cincinnati rotations. Diego Segui tallied 12 wins and 12 saves to anchor the bullpen. Wayne Granger saved 27 contests in his sophomore season for the “Actuals” and topped the Senior Circuit with 90 appearances.

  Original 1969 Reds                                                                   Actual 1969 Reds

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS OWAR OWS
Claude Osteen SP 5.09 24.65 Jim Maloney SP 3.93 14.63
Mike Cuellar SP 4.91 24.57 Jim Merritt SP 0.72 10.63
Jim Maloney SP 3.93 14.63 Gary Nolan SP 1.71 7.02
Casey Cox SP 2.14 12.03 George Culver SP -0.37 3.64
Gary Nolan SP 1.71 7.02 Gerry Arrigo SP -0.29 2.99
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS
Diego Segui RP 1.38 11.3 Wayne Granger RP 1.32 14.75
Dan McGinn RP -0.04 6.86 Clay Carroll RP 1.04 10.09
Jack Baldschun RP -0.3 3.57 Pedro Ramos RP -0.6 1.6
Billy McCool RP -0.04 2.88 John Noriega RP -0.19 0
John Noriega RP -0.19 0 Camilo Pascual SW -0.31 0
Mel Queen SP 0.37 1.17 Tony Cloninger SP -2.26 2.86
Sammy Ellis SP -0.33 0 Mel Queen SP 0.37 1.17
Jose Pena RP -0.68 0 Jack Fisher SP -1.91 0.72
Al Jackson RP -0.23 0.54
Dennis Ribant RP -0.05 0.49
Jose Pena RP -0.68 0
Bill Short RP -0.26 0

 

Notable Transactions

Frank Robinson

December 9, 1965: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the Baltimore Orioles for Jack Baldschun, Milt Pappas and Dick Simpson.

Jim Wynn

November 26, 1962: Drafted by the Houston Colt .45’s from the Cincinnati Reds in the 1962 first-year draft.

Leo Cardenas

November 21, 1968: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the Minnesota Twins for Jim Merritt.

Cesar Tovar

December 4, 1964: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the Minnesota Twins for Gerry Arrigo.

Claude Osteen

September 16, 1961: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the Washington Senators for a player to be named later and cash. The Washington Senators sent Dave Sisler (November 28, 1961) to the Cincinnati Reds to complete the trade.

December 4, 1964: Traded by the Washington Senators with John Kennedy and $100,000 to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a player to be named later, Frank Howard, Ken McMullen, Phil Ortega and Pete Richert. The Los Angeles Dodgers sent Dick Nen (December 15, 1964) to the Washington Senators to complete the trade.

Mike Cuellar 

Before 1963 Season: Sent from the Cincinnati Reds to the Cleveland Indians in an unknown transaction.

Before 1964 Season: Obtained by Jacksonville (International) from the Cleveland Indians as part of a minor league working agreement.

Before 1964 Season: Returned to the St. Louis Cardinals by Jacksonville (International) after expiration of minor league working agreement.

June 15, 1965: Traded by the St. Louis Cardinals with Ron Taylor to the Houston Astros for Chuck Taylor and Hal Woodeshick.

December 4, 1968: Traded by the Houston Astros with Tom Johnson (minors) and Enzo Hernandez to the Baltimore Orioles for John Mason (minors) and Curt Blefary.

Honorable Mention

The 1907 Cincinnati Reds 

OWAR: 39.9     OWS: 275     OPW%: .527     (81-73)

AWAR: 30.3       AWS: 198      APW%: .431    (66-87)

WARdiff: 9.6                        WSdiff: 77

Cincinnati ended the 1907 season in a fourth-place tie with Philadelphia but finished only six games behind the front-running Cubbies. “Wahoo” Sam Crawford (.323/4/81) laced 34 doubles, 17 triples and led the circuit with 102 runs scored. Orval Overall (23-7, 1.68) flummoxed opposing batsmen, posting a 1.006 WHIP with a League-high 8 shutouts. “Long” Bob Ewing compiled 17 victories with a 1.73 ERA and a WHIP of 1.094 while completing 32 of 37 starts. Patsy Dougherty swiped 33 bags while Mike Mitchell rapped 12 three-base hits in his rookie campaign. Harry Steinfeldt drilled 25 two-baggers and Socks Seybold drove in 92 baserunners.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1997 Red Sox

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2004 Royals

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 2004 Kansas City Royals 

OWAR: 40.4     OWS: 264     OPW%: .483     (78-84)

AWAR: 16.8      AWS: 173     APW%: .358     (58-104)

WARdiff: 23.6                        WSdiff: 91  

The “Original” 2004 Royals placed third in the American League Central division, 12 games behind the Indians. The “Actual” 2004 Royals lost 104 contests. Carlos Beltran (.267/38/104) enjoyed a monster campaign as he narrowly missed the 40/40 club. The Royals center fielder compiled 121 tallies and swiped 42 bags in 45 attempts. However he only earned 11.4 Win Shares for the “Actual” Royals (vs. 29 WS for the “Originals) due to a mid-season trade to the Houston Astros. Fellow outfielder Jeff Conine contributed 35 doubles while first-sacker Mike Sweeney went yard on 22 occasions.

Juan Gonzalez of the “Actuals” placed 52nd in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. 

  Original 2004 Royals                                    Actual 2004 Royals

LINEUP POS OWAR OWS LINEUP POS AWAR AWS
Jeff Conine LF 2.29 14.93 David DeJesus LF/CF 0.65 8.92
Carlos Beltran CF 6.77 29.02 Carlos Beltran CF 2.78 11.47
Michael Tucker RF 1.25 14.12 Matt Stairs RF 0.12 10.96
Johnny Damon DH/CF 4.34 25.1 Ken Harvey DH/1B 0.42 9.33
Mike Sweeney 1B 1.9 12.49 Mike Sweeney 1B 1.9 12.49
Ruben Gotay 2B -0.41 2.79 Tony Graffanino 2B 0.27 6.56
Ramon Martinez SS 0.21 5.64 Angel Berroa SS 0.38 10.55
Joe Randa 3B 0.35 13.1 Joe Randa 3B 0.35 13.1
Brent Mayne C -0.39 3.69 John Buck C 0.32 4.67
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS AWAR AWS
Ken Harvey 1B 0.42 9.33 Desi Relaford 3B -1.07 3.69
David DeJesus CF 0.65 8.92 Benito Santiago C 0.04 3.4
Andres Blanco SS 0.5 2.32 Alberto Castillo C 0.6 2.96
Juan Brito C -0.83 2.29 Calvin Pickering DH 0.3 2.94
Dee Brown LF -0.71 2.24 Ruben Gotay 2B -0.41 2.79
Kit Pellow RF -0.59 1.08 Juan Gonzalez RF 0.12 2.69
Shane Halter 3B -0.19 1.05 Abraham Nunez RF -0.47 2.58
Alex Prieto 2B -0.03 0.75 Andres Blanco SS 0.5 2.32
Matt Treanor C -0.11 0.51 Kelly Stinnett C 0.48 2.27
Byron Gettis LF -0.08 0.38 Dee Brown LF -0.71 2.24
Alexis Gomez LF -0.07 0.29 Aaron Guiel LF -0.55 0.49
Mendy Lopez 2B -0.5 0.22 Ruben Mateo RF -0.72 0.43
Brandon Berger LF -0.33 0.2 Byron Gettis LF -0.08 0.38
Donnie Murphy 2B -0.25 0.2 Alexis Gomez LF -0.07 0.29
Raul Gonzalez RF -0.16 0.12 Jose Bautista 3B -0.23 0.27
Paul Phillips C 0 0.1 Mendy Lopez 2B -0.5 0.22
Mike Tonis C -0.11 0.03 Brandon Berger LF -0.33 0.2
Larry Sutton 1B -0.01 0.03 Donnie Murphy 2B -0.25 0.2
Wilton Guerrero 2B -0.22 0.18
Paul Phillips C 0 0.1
Adrian Brown LF -0.07 0.08
Mike Tonis C -0.11 0.03
Rich Thompson RF -0.03 0.02
Damian Jackson RF -0.12 0.01

Jon Lieber recorded 14 victories and yielded only 18 bases on balls in 27 starts. Glendon Rusch fashioned a 3.47 ERA as he split time between starting and relief roles. Zack Greinke delivered 8 victories and a 3.97 ERA in his inaugural season. Tom “Flash” Gordon (9-4, 2.21) whiffed 96 batsmen in 89.2 innings and achieved All-Star status.

  Original 2004 Royals                                  Actual 2004 Royals

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Jon Lieber SP 2.87 10.43 Zack Greinke SP 3.62 9.73
Glendon Rusch SP 3.02 10 Jimmy Gobble SP 0.87 5.37
Zack Greinke SP 3.62 9.73 Dennys Reyes SP 0.79 4.58
Jimmy Gobble SP 0.87 5.37 Jeremy Affeldt SP 0.11 4.42
Jeremy Affeldt SP 0.11 4.42 Darrell May SP -0.05 4.07
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS AWAR AWS
Tom Gordon RP 3.66 15.47 Shawn Camp RP 0.17 4.15
Dan Miceli RP 0.73 7.13 Jaime Cerda RP 0.69 4.05
Lance Carter RP 0.76 6.53 Nate Field RP 0.07 3.02
Kiko Calero RP 0.7 5.7 Scott Sullivan RP 0.12 2.85
Orber Moreno RP 0.08 2.84 Jason Grimsley RP 0.59 2.55
Wes Obermueller SP -0.01 2.98 Brian Anderson SP -0.71 2.84
Ryan Bukvich RP 0.12 0.82 Mike Wood SP 0.24 1.91
Chad Durbin RP -1.03 0.39 Jimmy Serrano SP 0.5 1.57
Rodney Myers RP 0.06 0.29 D. J. Carrasco RP -0.12 1.54
Jason Simontacchi RP -0.28 0.26 Rudy Seanez RP 0.32 1.45
Mike MacDougal RP -0.13 0.23 Ryan Bukvich RP 0.12 0.82
Kevin Appier SP -0.44 0 Mike MacDougal RP -0.13 0.23
Chris George SP -0.82 0 Kevin Appier SP -0.44 0
Jorge Vasquez RP -0.19 0 Denny Bautista SP -0.07 0
Chris George SP -0.82 0
Justin Huisman RP -0.51 0
Matt Kinney RP -0.43 0
Curt Leskanic RP -0.64 0
Jorge Vasquez RP -0.19 0
Eduardo Villacis SP -0.22 0

Notable Transactions

Carlos Beltran

June 24, 2004: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Kansas City Royals to the Houston Astros. The Oakland Athletics sent Mark Teahen and Mike Wood to the Kansas City Royals. The Houston Astros sent Octavio Dotel to the Oakland Athletics. The Houston Astros sent John Buck and cash to the Kansas City Royals.

Johnny Damon

January 8, 2001: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Kansas City Royals with Mark Ellis to the Oakland Athletics. The Oakland Athletics sent Ben Grieve to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The Oakland Athletics sent Angel Berroa and A.J. Hinch to the Kansas City Royals. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays sent Cory Lidle to the Oakland Athletics. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays sent Roberto Hernandez to the Kansas City Royals.

November 5, 2001: Granted Free Agency.

December 21, 2001: Signed as a Free Agent with the Boston Red Sox.

Tom Gordon

October 30, 1995: Granted Free Agency.

December 21, 1995: Signed as a Free Agent with the Boston Red Sox.

November 1, 2000: Granted Free Agency.

December 14, 2000: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago Cubs.

August 22, 2002: Traded by the Chicago Cubs to the Houston Astros for players to be named later and Russ Rohlicek (minors). The Houston Astros sent Travis Anderson (minors) (September 11, 2002) and Mike Nannini (minors) (September 11, 2002) to the Chicago Cubs to complete the trade.

October 29, 2002: Granted Free Agency.

January 23, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago White Sox.

October 27, 2003: Granted Free Agency.

December 16, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Yankees.

Honorable Mention

The 2009 Kansas City Royals 

OWAR: 45.7     OWS: 268     OPW%: .544     (88-74)

AWAR: 25.3       AWS: 194      APW%: .401    (65-97)

WARdiff: 20.4                        WSdiff: 74

Kansas City clinched the American League Central division title by a lone game over Minnesota. Zack Greinke (16-8, 2.16) merited the 2009 AL Cy Young Award as he paced the Junior Circuit in ERA and WHIP (1.073) while posting career-highs in strikeouts (242) and innings pitched (229.1). Johnny Damon (.282/24/82) tied his personal-best in home runs, slashed 36 two-base hits and registered 107 tallies. Billy Butler aka “Country Breakfast” drilled 51 doubles and swatted 21 big-flies. David DeJesus contributed 13 jacks and knocked in 71 runs. Carlos Beltran supplied a .325 BA but missed more than two months of the season due to injury. J.P. Howell saved 17 contests and collected 7 victories as the Royals’ relief ace.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1969 Reds

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1984 Giants

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1984 San Francisco Giants 

OWAR: 42.9     OWS: 294     OPW%: .508     (82-80)

AWAR: 27.7      AWS: 198     APW%: .407     (66-96)

WARdiff: 15.2                        WSdiff: 96  

The “Original” 1984 Giants ended the season with a winning record but merely earned a fifth place finish, 9 games behind the Astros. Gary “Sarge” Matthews established a career-best with 101 runs scored while pacing the circuit with 103 walks and a .410 OBP. Chili Davis contributed a .315 BA and merited his first All-Star invitation. Dave “Kong” Kingman walloped 35 four-baggers and knocked in a personal-best 118 baserunners. Bob Brenly achieved his lone All-Star nod with a .291 BA, 20 dingers and 80 ribbies. Jack Clark supplied a .320 BA with 11 long balls prior to a season-ending injury in mid-June. Dan “Dazzle” Gladden ignited the offense following his recall from the minor leagues in late June, posting a .351 BA and swiping 31 bags.

Jack Clark is ranked 27th among right fielders according to Bill James in “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract.” “Original” Giants teammates listed in the “NBJHBA” top 100 rankings include George Foster (34th-LF), Gary Matthews (46th-LF), Garry Maddox (56th-CF), Chili Davis (64th-RF), Chris Speier (68th-SS) and Dave Kingman (98th-LF).  Al Oliver (31th-CF), Manny Trillo (49th-2B) and Dusty Baker (54th-LF) make the register for the “Actual” Giants. 

  Original 1984 Giants                              Actual 1984 Giants

LINEUP POS OWAR OWS LINEUP POS AWAR AWS
Gary Matthews LF 2.68 22.93 Jeffrey Leonard LF 2.38 20.37
Dan Gladden CF 2.81 16.46 Dan Gladden CF 2.81 16.46
Chili Davis RF/CF 4.19 21.58 Chili Davis RF/CF 4.19 21.58
John Rabb 1B -0.14 1.01 Scot Thompson 1B 0.35 6.89
2B Manny Trillo 2B 0.76 8.83
Johnnie LeMaster SS -0.47 7.23 Johnnie LeMaster SS -0.47 7.23
Chris Brown 3B 0.31 2.26 Joel Youngblood 3B -0.89 9.5
Bob Brenly C 3.58 21.32 Bob Brenly C 3.58 21.32
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS AWAR AWS
Dave Kingman DH 2.49 21.48 Jack Clark RF 2.01 11.84
George Foster LF 1.16 18.27 Dusty Baker RF 1.19 8.81
Jack Clark RF 2.01 11.84 Al Oliver 1B -0.85 6.56
Bob Kearney C 0.26 8.63 Steve Nicosia C 0.79 4.99
Garry Maddox CF 0.53 6.67 Brad Wellman 2B -0.45 3.74
Chris Speier SS -0.24 2.96 Chris Brown 3B 0.31 2.26
Rob Deer LF 0.28 1.24 Fran Mullins 3B 0.24 2.08
Randy Gomez C -0.02 0.18 Gene Richards LF -0.04 1.92
Tom O’Malley 3B -0.5 0.03 Rob Deer LF 0.28 1.24
Jose Morales -0.19 0 John Rabb 1B -0.14 1.01
Casey Parsons -0.01 0 Duane Kuiper 2B -1.06 0.82
Randy Gomez C -0.02 0.18
Joe Pittman SS -0.17 0.12
Alejandro Sanchez RF -0.4 0.08
Tom O’Malley 3B -0.29 0.01

Bob Knepper rebounded from an 11-28 mark in the previous two campaigns to achieve a 15-10 record with a 3.20 ERA and 1.190 WHIP. Gary Lavelle notched 12 saves and fashioned a 2.76 ERA as the primary closer. Frank Williams collected 9 victories in a long relief role during his rookie year.

  Original 1984 Giants                                   Actual 1984 Giants

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Bob Knepper SP 2.16 12.43 Bill Laskey SP -0.02 4.8
Pete Falcone SP 0.91 5.33 Mike Krukow SP -1.04 3.94
John Montefusco SP 0.58 3.27 Jeff D. Robinson SP -0.67 2.84
Jeff D. Robinson SP -0.67 2.84 Atlee Hammaker SP 0.96 2.28
Mark Calvert SP -0.39 0.22 George Riley SP 0.19 0.98
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS AWAR AWS
Gary Lavelle RP 1.78 7.85 Gary Lavelle RP 1.78 7.85
Frank Williams RP 0.43 5.7 Greg Minton RP -0.02 6.29
John Henry Johnson RP 1.22 4.39 Frank Williams RP 0.43 5.7
Scott Garrelts SW -1.13 0 Randy Lerch RP 0.11 2.58
Gorman Heimueller RP -0.7 0 Bob Lacey RP -0.07 1.51
Mark Grant SP -1.1 0 Renie Martin RP -0.09 0.99
Mark Calvert SP -0.39 0.22
Mark W. Davis SP -1.91 0.18
Jeff Cornell RP -1.25 0
Scott Garrelts SW -1.13 0
Mark Grant SP -1.1 0

Notable Transactions

Gary Matthews

November 17, 1976: Signed as a Free Agent with the Atlanta Braves.

March 25, 1981: Traded by the Atlanta Braves to the Philadelphia Phillies for Bob Walk.

March 26, 1984: Traded by the Philadelphia Phillies with Porfi Altamirano and Bob Dernier to the Chicago Cubs for Bill Campbell and Mike Diaz.

Dave Kingman

February 28, 1975: Purchased by the New York Mets from the San Francisco Giants for $150,000.

June 15, 1977: Traded by the New York Mets to the San Diego Padres for Paul Siebert and Bobby Valentine.

September 6, 1977: Selected off waivers by the California Angels from the San Diego Padres.

September 15, 1977: Traded by the California Angels to the New York Yankees for Randy Stein and cash.

November 2, 1977: Granted Free Agency.

November 30, 1977: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago Cubs.

February 28, 1981: Traded by the Chicago Cubs to the New York Mets for Steve Henderson and cash.

January 30, 1984: Released by the New York Mets.

March 29, 1984: Signed as a Free Agent with the Oakland Athletics.

George Foster

May 29, 1971: Traded by the San Francisco Giants to the Cincinnati Reds for Frank Duffy and Vern Geishert.

February 10, 1982: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the New York Mets for Greg Harris, Jim Kern and Alex Trevino.

Bob Knepper

December 8, 1980: Traded by the San Francisco Giants with Chris Bourjos to the Houston Astros for Enos Cabell.

Honorable Mention

The 1906 New York Giants 

OWAR: 65.9     OWS: 361     OPW%: .591     (91-63)

AWAR: 50.8       AWS: 287      APW%: .632    (96-56)

WARdiff: 15.1                        WSdiff: 74

The New York Giants secured the organization’s fourth consecutive pennant in 1906 with a record of 91-63, placing three games in front of the St. Louis Cardinals. Third-sacker Art Devlin pilfered 54 bases and delivered a .299 BA. Harry H. Davis topped the leader boards with 12 big-flies and 96 ribbies. Converted outfielder Cy Seymour nabbed 29 bags and drove in 80 baserunners while “Wee” Willie Keeler batted .304 with 23 steals. Christy Mathewson furnished 22 victories along with a 2.97 ERA. Left-hander Hooks Wiltse recorded 16 wins with an ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.143.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2004 Royals

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1975 Astros

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

 

Assessment

The 1975 Houston Astros 

OWAR: 50.0     OWS: 291     OPW%: .535     (87-75)

AWAR: 28.7      AWS: 192     APW%: .398     (64-97)

WARdiff: 21.3                        WSdiff: 99  

The “Original” 1975 Astros fell six games short of the National League Western Division title as the Big Red Machine tallied 93 victories. Joe L. Morgan produced a .327 BA with 17 dingers, 94 ribbies and 107 runs scored to secure the NL MVP Award. “Little Joe” succeeded on 67 of 77 stolen base attempts and coaxed a League-leading 132 bases on balls. First-sacker John Mayberry racked up personal-bests in doubles (38), home runs (34), RBI (106), runs (95) and bases on balls (119). Rusty Staub swatted 19 big-flies and knocked in 105 baserunners. Cesar Cedeno swiped 50 bags and batted .288 while Bob “Bull” Watson delivered a career-high BA (.324) for the “Original” and “Actual” ‘Stros.

Joe L. Morgan is ranked as the top second baseman according to Bill James in “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract.” “Original” Astros teammates listed in the “NBJHBA” top 100 rankings include Cesar Cedeno (21st-CF), Rusty Staub (24th-RF), Bob Watson (33rd-1st), John Mayberry (49th-1B), Doug Rader (64th-3B) and Jerry Grote (66th-C). “Actual” Astros outfielder Jose Cruz places 29th among left fielders.

 

  Original 1975 Astros                                    Actual 1975 Astros

LINEUP POS OWAR OWS LINEUP POS AWAR AWS
Greg Gross LF 1.91 14.4 Greg Gross LF 1.91 14.4
Cesar Cedeno CF 4.25 19.87 Cesar Cedeno CF 4.25 19.87
Rusty Staub RF 2.34 24.89 Jose Cruz RF 2.69 10.54
John Mayberry 1B 6.1 32.3 Bob Watson 1B 2.63 20.01
Joe L. Morgan 2B 9.44 43.74 Rob Andrews 2B 1.15 5.3
Enzo Hernandez SS -0.33 7.01 Roger Metzger SS 0.49 8.2
Doug Rader 3B 0.93 9.34 Doug Rader 3B 0.93 9.34
Jerry Grote C 2.15 17.24 Milt May C 0.6 7.5
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS AWAR AWS
Bob Watson 1B 2.63 20.01 Cliff Johnson 1B 2.72 15.09
Derrel Thomas 2B 1.55 16.73 Wilbur Howard LF 1.52 9.93
Cliff Johnson 1B 2.72 15.09 Enos Cabell LF 0.34 7.12
Walt Williams DH 0.34 4.12 Jerry DaVanon SS 0.87 4.19
Fred Stanley SS -0.98 3.78 Ken Boswell 2B -0.11 3.51
Glenn Adams LF 0.61 3.63 Larry Milbourne 2B -0.25 1.31
Jack Lind SS -0.2 0.26 Tommy Helms 2B -0.32 1
Jesus de la Rosa 0.04 0.16 Skip Jutze C -0.5 0.88
Art Gardner RF -0.28 0.08 Jesus de la Rosa 0.04 0.16
Danny Walton 1B -0.55 0.07 Art Gardner RF -0.28 0.08
Ed Armbrister LF -0.46 0.03 Rafael Batista -0.01 0.07
Mike Easler -0.06 0 Mike Easler -0.06 0

Houston hurlers failed to generate much excitement during the ’75 campaign. Larry Dierker completed 14 of 34 starts and fashioned a record of 14-16 with a 4.00 ERA. Pat Darcy posted an 11-5 mark with a 3.58 ERA in his inaugural season. Dave Giusti furnished a 2.95 ERA and saved 17 contests despite accruing more walks than strikeouts.

 

  Original 1975 Astros                                    Actual 1975 Astros

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Larry Dierker SP 0.33 8.85 Larry Dierker SP 0.33 8.85
Pat Darcy SP 1.38 7.76 Ken Forsch SP 1.02 5.89
Ken Forsch SP 1.02 5.89 J. R. Richard SP -0.38 5.77
J. R. Richard SP -0.38 5.77 Dave Roberts SP -0.08 5.74
Roric Harrison SP -0.51 5.5 Doug Konieczny SP -0.92 3.17
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS AWAR AWS
Dave Giusti RP 0.55 9.94 Joe Niekro RP 1.03 6.53
Tom Burgmeier RP 0.77 7.4 Mike Cosgrove RP 0.96 5.05
Mike Cosgrove RP 0.96 5.05 Jim Crawford RP 0.09 4.27
Jim Crawford RP 0.09 4.27 Wayne Granger RP -0.71 2.96
Bill Greif RP -1.04 3.26 Jose Sosa RP 0.26 2.12
Doug Konieczny SP -0.92 3.17 Jim York SW -0.04 2.07
Wayne Twitchell SP -1.37 3.05 Paul Siebert SP 0.17 1.09
Jose Sosa RP 0.26 2.12 Mike T. Stanton SP -0.55 0
Paul Siebert SP 0.17 1.09 Tom Griffin SP -1.38 0
Mike T. Stanton SP -0.55 0 Fred Scherman RP -0.41 0
Tom Griffin SP -1.38 0

 

Notable Transactions

Joe L. Morgan

November 29, 1971: Traded by the Houston Astros with Ed Armbrister, Jack Billingham, Cesar Geronimo and Denis Menke to the Cincinnati Reds for Tommy Helms, Lee May and Jimmy Stewart.

John Mayberry

December 2, 1971: Traded by the Houston Astros with David Grangaard (minors) to the Kansas City Royals for Lance Clemons and Jim York.

Rusty Staub

January 22, 1969: Traded by the Houston Astros to the Montreal Expos for Jesus Alou and Donn Clendenon. Donn Clendenon refused to report to his new team on April 8, 1969. The Montreal Expos sent Jack Billingham (April 8, 1969), Skip Guinn (April 8, 1969) and $100,000 (April 8, 1969) to the Houston Astros to complete the trade.

April 5, 1972: Traded by the Montreal Expos to the New York Mets for Tim Foli, Mike Jorgensen and Ken Singleton.

Honorable Mention

The 2013 Houston Astros 

OWAR: 26.6     OWS: 218     OPW%: .427     (69-93)

AWAR: 8.3       AWS: 151      APW%: .315    (51-111)

WARdiff: 18.3                        WSdiff: 67

Following a transfer to the American League West prior to the start of the 2013 campaign, the “Original” Astros finished dead last in the division. Nonetheless it represents a WSdiff of 67 and 18 additional wins compared to the “Actual” Astros from the same season. Hunter Pence established career-highs with 27 round-trippers and 22 stolen bases. Ben Zobrist laced 36 doubles and earned his second All-Star nod. Chris Johnson produced personal-bests in batting average (.321) and two-base hits (34). Jason Castro drilled 35 two-baggers and posted a .276 BA. Jose Altuve batted .283 and pilfered 35 bags.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1984 Giants

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1908 Cardinals

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1908 St. Louis Cardinals 

OWAR: 29.2     OWS: 247     OPW%: .375     (58-96)

AWAR: 13.5       AWS: 146     APW%: .318   (49-105)

WARdiff: 15.7                        WSdiff: 101  

Despite a dismal effort and last-place finish, the “Original” 1908 Cardinals bested the “Actual” Redbirds by a 9-game margin and a confounding Win Shares differential of 109. “Turkey” Mike Donlin (.334/6/106) tallied 198 base knocks, pilfered 30 bags and recorded a career-high in ribbies. Fellow outfielder Charlie “Eagle Eye” Hemphill swiped 42 bases and batted .297 for the “Original” Cardinals. Red Murray supplied a .282 BA with 48 stolen bases for both the “Original” and “Actual” Redbirds.

Mordecai Brown ranks twentieth among pitchers according to Bill James in “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract.” “Original” Cardinals teammates listed in the “NBJHBA” top 100 rankings include Ed Konetchy (48th-1B) and Mike Donlin (52nd-CF).

  Original 1908 Cardinals                             Actual 1908 Cardinals

LINEUP POS OWAR OWS LINEUP POS AWAR AWS
Charlie Hemphill LF/CF 3.11 25.83 Joe Delahanty LF -0.89 13.78
Red Murray CF 2.92 25.78 Red Murray CF 2.92 25.78
Mike Donlin RF 5.8 31.2 Al Shaw RF/CF -0.3 10.83
Ed Konetchy 1B 1.65 16.9 Ed Konetchy 1B 1.65 16.9
Chappy Charles 2B -2.75 2.31 Billy Gilbert 2B -1.13 3.61
Freddy Parent SS 1.89 11.89 Patsy O’Rourke SS -1.02 0.64
Bobby Byrne 3B -1.61 3.31 Bobby Byrne 3B -1.61 3.31
Art Hoelskoetter C -0.24 2.21 Art Hoelskoetter C -0.24 2.21
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS AWAR AWS
Joe Delahanty LF -0.89 13.78 Shad Barry RF -0.53 4.25
Al Shaw CF -0.3 10.83 Chappy Charles 2B -2.75 2.31
Al Burch LF 0.18 10.72 Jack Bliss C 0.12 2.18
Spike Shannon LF -0.85 7.58 Bill Ludwig C -0.02 1.4
Jack Bliss C 0.12 2.18 Wilbur Murdoch LF -0.21 1.3
Bill Ludwig C -0.02 1.4 Champ Osteen SS -0.81 0.41
Wilbur Murdoch LF -0.21 1.3 Charlie Moran C -0.44 0.28
Patsy O’Rourke SS -1.02 0.64 Walter Morris SS -0.65 0.25
Art Weaver C -0.1 0.33 Doc Marshall C -0.07 0.18
Charlie Moran C -0.44 0.28 Tom Reilly SS -0.58 0.13
Walter Morris SS -0.65 0.25 Ralph McLaurin LF -0.14 0.09
Tom Reilly SS -0.58 0.13
Ralph McLaurin LF -0.14 0.09
Simmy Murch 1B -0.06 0.06

Mordecai “Three-Finger” Brown, in the midst of six straight seasons with 20+ victories, furnished a 29-9 record with a 1.47 ERA and a career-best WHIP of 0.842. He completed 27 of 31 starts and saved 5 contests in 13 relief appearances for the “Original” Cardinals. Billy Campbell contributed 12 wins with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.116 WHIP in 221.1 innings. “Actuals” ace Bugs Raymond suffered through a 15-25 campaign despite a 2.03 ERA and 1.021 WHIP. Johnny Lush (11-18, 2.12) endured similar results as the Redbirds rotation was unable to overcome a lackluster offense.

  Original 1908 Cardinals                            Actual 1908 Cardinals

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Mordecai Brown SP 6.62 31.34 Bugs Raymond SP 1.97 21.04
Billy Campbell SP -0.96 10.38 Johnny Lush SP 0.26 14.3
Art Fromme SP -1.45 3.61 Fred Beebe SP -2.13 5.63
Slim Sallee SP -1.61 3.19 Ed Karger SP -1.87 3.69
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS AWAR AWS
Jake Thielman RP -0.34 3.78 Art Fromme SP -1.45 3.61
Irv Higginbotham SP -0.9 3.1 Slim Sallee SP -1.61 3.19
Charlie Rhodes RP -0.05 1.67 Irv Higginbotham SP -0.9 3.1
Stoney McGlynn SP -1.16 1.23 Charlie Rhodes SP 0 1.4
O.F. Baldwin SP -0.46 0 Stoney McGlynn SP -1.16 1.23
Buster Brown RP -0.39 0 O.F. Baldwin SP -0.46 0
Fred Gaiser RP -0.13 0 Fred Gaiser RP -0.13 0

Notable Transactions

Mordecai Brown

December 12, 1903: Traded by the St. Louis Cardinals with Jack O’Neill to the Chicago Cubs for Larry McLean and Jack Taylor.

Mike Donlin

Before 1901 Season: Jumped from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Baltimore Orioles.

Before 1902 Season: Released by the Baltimore Orioles.

August, 1902: Signed as a Free Agent with the Cincinnati Reds.

August 7, 1904: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Cincinnati Reds to the New York Giants. The New York Giants sent Moose McCormick to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pittsburgh Pirates sent Jimmy Sebring to the Cincinnati Reds.

Charlie Hemphill

March 2, 1901: Jumped from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Boston Americans.

Before 1902 Season: Signed as a Free Agent with the Cleveland Bronchos.

June, 1902: Released by the Cleveland Bronchos. (Date given is approximate. Exact date is uncertain.)

June 4, 1902: Signed as a Free Agent with the St. Louis Browns.

August 23, 1905: Purchased by the St. Louis Browns from St Paul (American Association). (Date given is approximate. Exact date is uncertain.)

November 5, 1907: Traded by the St. Louis Browns with Fred Glade and Harry Niles to the New York Highlanders for Hobe Ferris, Danny Hoffman and Jimmy Williams.

Honorable Mention

The 1983 St. Louis Cardinals 

OWAR: 54.8     OWS: 310     OPW%: .517     (84-78)

AWAR: 36.1     AWS: 237     APW%: .488   (79-83)

WARdiff: 18.7                        WSdiff: 73 

The “Original” 1983 Cardinals seized the National League Eastern Division flag by a single game over the Expos. The flock featured left fielder Jose Cruz (.318/14/92), the NL leader with 189 base hits. “Cheo” reached the 30-steal mark for the fifth time in his career. Terry Kennedy (.284/17/98) registered a personal-best in RBI. Keith Hernandez earned the sixth of eleven consecutive Gold Glove Awards. John Denny (19-6, 2.37) merited the NL Cy Young Award. Larry Herndon notched personal-highs in batting average (.302), hits (182), doubles (28) and RBI (92). Ted “Simba” Simmons delivered a .308 BA with 39 two-baggers and 108 ribbies. Steve “Lefty” Carlton whiffed 275 batsmen and fashioned a 3.11 ERA. George Hendrick (.318/18/97) received his fourth All-Star invitation and posted a career-high in batting average for the “Actual” Redbirds.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1975 Astros

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive