Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1992 Padres

by
September 24, 2016

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1992 San Diego Padres 

OWAR: 52.6     OWS: 324     OPW%: .595     (96-66)

AWAR: 37.3      AWS: 246     APW%: .506     (82-80)

WARdiff: 15.3                        WSdiff: 78  

The ’92 Friars fiercely engaged the Braves but when the dust settled, the San Diego crew emerged two games behind Atlanta. The Padres led National League in OWAR and OWS. Roberto Alomar (.310/8/76) nabbed 49 bags in 58 attempts and registered 105 tallies. Carlos Baerga (.312/20/105) collected 205 base knocks, rapped 32 doubles and merited his first All-Star selection. Shane Mack supplied a .315 BA and scored 101 runs. Dave Winfield drilled 33 two-baggers, walloped 26 big-flies and plated 108 baserunners. Dave “Head” Hollins manned the hot corner and responded to full-time status with personal-bests in home runs (27), RBI (93) and runs scored (104). John Kruk laced 30 two-base hits and posted a .323 BA. In the final season of a 13-year consecutive Gold Glove Award streak, Ozzie Smith aka “The Wizard of Oz” delivered a .295 BA and succeeded on 43 of 52 stolen base tries. “Mr. Padre” Tony Gwynn contributed a .317 BA with 27 doubles.

Gary Sheffield (.330/33/100) and Fred “Crime Dog” McGriff secured their first invitations to the Mid-Summer Classic and accounted for a substantial chunk of the “Actuals” offensive production. “Sheff” claimed the batting title and placed third in the 1992 NL MVP balloting. McGriff topped the Senior Circuit with 35 bombs while driving in 104 runs.

Tony Gwynn rated sixth among right fielders in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” San Diego teammates enumerated in the “NBJHBA” top 100 lists include Ozzie Smith (7th-SS), Roberto Alomar (10th-2B), Dave Winfield (13th-RF), Kevin McReynolds (45th-LF), John Kruk (72nd-1B), Ozzie Guillen (74th-SS) and Carlos Baerga (93rd-2B). Fred McGriff (21st-1B), Tony Fernandez (24th-SS) and Gary Sheffield (54th-RF) attained top-100 status among those who played exclusively for the “Actual” 1992 Padres.

  Original 1992 Padres                               Actual 1992 Padres

STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS
Shane Mack LF 6.17 27.47 Jerald Clark LF -0.67 9.94
Thomas Howard CF/LF 0.05 6.44 Darrin Jackson CF 0.46 13.54
Tony Gwynn RF 1.69 17.86 Tony Gwynn RF 1.69 17.86
John Kruk 1B 4.35 25.38 Fred McGriff 1B 3.6 27.38
Roberto Alomar 2B 5.37 31.53 Tim Teufel 2B -0.48 5.17
Ozzie Smith SS 3.24 22.13 Tony Fernandez SS 1.41 18.31
Dave Hollins 3B 3.61 25.6 Gary Sheffield 3B 5.92 32.28
Sandy Alomar, Jr. C 0.09 8.2 Benito Santiago C 0.81 8.17
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS AWAR AWS
Carlos Baerga 2B 4.83 28.54 Dan Walters C 0.36 5.43
Dave Winfield DH 3.53 25.75 Kurt Stillwell 2B -1.98 4.93
Kevin McReynolds LF 1.27 12.89 Craig Shipley SS -0.37 1.61
Jerald Clark LF -0.67 9.94 Tom Lampkin C 0.21 1.03
Benito Santiago C 0.81 8.17 Paul Faries 2B 0.19 0.82
Warren Newson RF 0.25 4.04 Guillermo Velasquez 1B 0.08 0.7
Joey Cora 2B 0.66 3.98 Dann Bilardello C -0.3 0.59
Ron Tingley C 0.13 3.36 Jim Vatcher RF 0.02 0.54
Mark Parent C 0.25 1.42 Kevin Ward LF -0.8 0.52
Paul Faries 2B 0.19 0.82 Oscar Azocar LF -1.14 0.44
Guillermo Velasquez 1B 0.08 0.7 Jeff Gardner 2B -0.22 0.27
Gary Green SS 0.08 0.46 Gary Pettis CF -0.08 0.24
Rodney McCray RF 0.09 0.45 Phil Stephenson LF -0.5 0.19
Ozzie Guillen SS -0.01 0.41 Thomas Howard – 0 0.05
Mike Humphreys LF -0.15 0.12
Jim Tatum 3B -0.1 0.08
Luis Quinones DH -0.04 0.02
Jose Valentin 2B -0.03 0

Andy Benes fortified the “Original” and “Actual” Padres rotations with 13 victories and a 3.35 ERA. Rich Rodriguez and Mike Maddux enhanced the “Actuals” bullpen with identical 2.37 ERA’s while southpaw Bruce Hurst contributed to the starting rotation with a 14-9 record. Omar Olivares registered 9 wins with a 3.84 ERA and Bob Patterson posted a career-best 2.92 ERA for the “Originals”.

  Original 1992 Padres                                Actual 1992 Padres

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Andy Benes SP 4.22 15.68 Andy Benes SP 4.22 15.68
Omar Olivares SP 1.89 8.33 Bruce Hurst SP 2.56 12.47
Jimmy Jones SP 0.41 4.89 Craig Lefferts SP 1.27 9.7
Ricky Bones SP -0.35 4.22 Frank Seminara SP 0.93 6.47
Greg W. Harris SP 0.4 3.81 Jim Deshaies SP 1.39 5.78
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS AWAR AWS
Bob Patterson RP 0.95 7.52 Rich Rodriguez RP 1.6 9.21
Jim Austin RP 1.21 6.79 Mike Maddux RP 1.56 8.9
Mitch Williams RP -0.27 4.99 Jose Melendez RP 1.28 7.3
Mark Williamson RP 0.4 2.48 Randy Myers RP -0.04 7.16
Steve Fireovid RP -0.18 0.3 Larry Andersen RP 0.31 3.6
Matt Maysey RP -0.01 0.08 Greg W. Harris SP 0.4 3.81
Doug Brocail SP -0.23 0 Pat Clements RP 0.22 2.12
Jeremy Hernandez RP 0.05 1.49
Gene Harris RP 0.31 1.37
Tim Scott RP -0.65 0.91
Doug Brocail SP -0.23 0
Dave Eiland SP -0.51 0

Notable Transactions

Roberto Alomar 

December 5, 1990: Traded by the San Diego Padres with Joe Carter to the Toronto Blue Jays for Tony Fernandez and Fred McGriff. 

Carlos Baerga 

December 6, 1989: Traded by the San Diego Padres with Sandy Alomar and Chris James to the Cleveland Indians for Joe Carter. 

Shane Mack 

December 4, 1989: Drafted by the Minnesota Twins from the San Diego Padres in the 1989 rule 5 draft. 

Dave Winfield

October 22, 1980: Granted Free Agency.

December 15, 1980: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Yankees.

May 11, 1990: Traded by the New York Yankees to the California Angels for Mike Witt.

October 30, 1991: Granted Free Agency.

December 19, 1991: Signed as a Free Agent with the Toronto Blue Jays. 

Dave Hollins

December 4, 1989: Drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies from the San Diego Padres in the 1989 rule 5 draft.

Ozzie Smith

Traded by the San Diego Padres with a player to be named later and Steve Mura to the St. Louis Cardinals for a player to be named later, Sixto Lezcano and Garry Templeton. The San Diego Padres sent Al Olmsted (February 19, 1982) to the St. Louis Cardinals to complete the trade. The St. Louis Cardinals sent Luis DeLeon (February 19, 1982) to the San Diego Padres to complete the trade.

Honorable Mention

The 1986 San Diego Padres 

OWAR: 47.6     OWS: 298     OPW%: .518     (84-78)

AWAR: 29.2       AWS: 222      APW%: .457    (74-88)

WARdiff: 18.4                        WSdiff: 76

The ’86 Padres ended the season in a virtual tie with the Dodgers. Tony Gwynn (.329/14/51) paced the Senior Circuit with 211 base hits and 107 runs scored. He swiped 37 bases in 46 attempts and collected his first Gold Glove Award. Kevin McReynolds (.288/26/96) began a streak of five successive seasons with at least 20 round-trippers. Ozzie Smith succeeded on 31 of 38 stolen base attempts. Dave Winfield crushed 24 moon-shots and plated 104 baserunners. Johnny Grubb contributed a .333 BA with 13 jacks in a part-time role and John Kruk delivered a .309 BA in his inaugural campaign. Eric Show fashioned a 2.97 ERA and tallied 9 victories for the San Diego starting staff.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2002 Blue Jays

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive





 

Derek Bain is a New Jersey native with a passion for baseball, statistics, computers and video games. He has written a number of articles for Fangraphs and Seamheads, and enjoys spending quality time with his family.

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