The following is a look at the 21^st through 40^th starting pitcher taken in the FanGraphs Early Mock Draft, with a comparison to their rankings based on 2015 Steamer projections.

Starting Pitchers: 21-30

The table below shows starting pitchers taken 21^st through 30^th in this mock, along with their Steamer rank and the difference between their Steamer rank and the spot they were drafted. Pitchers with a positive difference were taken higher than their Steamer projection would suggest. Those with a negative difference were taken later than Steamer would have expected.

In this mock draft, pitchers started flying off the shelves in the 10^th and 11^th rounds. It took 104 picks for the first 22 starting pitchers to be drafted. Nineteen more were taken over the next 45 picks. It looks like the second half of the 10^th round is when things really started heating up.

In this group of 10 pitchers, there were a few who were picked well before or much later than their Steamer projection would expect. Jeff Samardzija was the 22^nd pitcher taken; Steamer has him ranked 42^nd. Samardzija had a 2.99 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 2014 and his FIP (3.20), xFIP (3.07), and SIERA (3.06) weren’t far off from his ERA. Steamer isn’t buying on Samardzija, projecting a 3.94 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

The next pitcher taken was Masahiro Tanaka. Steamer has Tanaka just outside the top 10 and he was taken here as the 23^rd starting pitcher drafted. Tanaka’s health is the big issue. He missed more than two months of the 2014 season, so it’s hard to know what to expect from him in 2015. Steamer is still projecting 31 starts and 192 innings. The Fans projections have him at 28 starts and 178 innings.

The 2014 NL Rookie of the Year, Jacob deGrom, was the 25^th starting pitcher drafted, but is ranked 57^th by Steamer. deGrom put up a 2.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 9.2 K/9 last year in 22 starts. The strikeout rate was surprising. In 323 1/3 minor league innings, deGrom’s K/9 was 7.4. Steamer projects deGrom for a 3.93 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 8.0 K/9.

Like Jacob deGrom, Tyson Ross was drafted much earlier than Steamer would suggest. Ross very much enjoyed pitching at home in Petco Park last year, where he posted a 1.88 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, with a K%-BB% of 18.9% and a .267 BABIP. He was much more human on the road, with a 3.79 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 11.6% K%-BB%, and .315 BABIP. Ross was the 27^th starting pitcher drafted. Steamer has him ranked 51^st among starting pitchers.

The 30^th starting pitcher taken was Jose Quintana. Quintana has started 87 games over the last three years with a 3.50 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 7.1 K/9. Steamer is projecting a 3.95 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 7.7 K/9, which puts him 58^th among starting pitchers based on Steamer projections. In this case, ZiPS is just as pessimistic, forecasting a 3.88 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 7.2 K/9.

The Steamer “bargains” among starting pitchers taken in this grouping were the aforementioned Masahiro Tanaka and a pair of older pitchers—Hisashi Iwakuma and James Shields. Iwakuma was the 26^th starting pitcher drafted and is ranked 20^th by Steamer. Shields was the 29^th starting pitcher taken and is ranked 23^rd by Steamer.

Starting Pitchers: 31-40

The next 10 starting pitchers were taken over rounds 11 through 13. Here’s the chart:

Based on Steamer projections, there were four “bargain” picks in this grouping of starting pitchers, starting with Hyun-Jin Ryu with the 130^th pick of the draft. Ryu was the 31^st starting pitcher drafted but is ranked 16^th by Steamer. Of the first 40 starting pitchers drafted, Ryu had the biggest discrepancy between his Steamer ranking and the spot he was drafted and it’s not like Steamer has a particularly favorable projection compared to what Ryu has done in the past. Last year, Ryu had a 3.38 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Steamer projects a 3.33 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

The next Steamer bargain was Cliff Lee who was taken 32^nd among starting pitchers and ranked 21^st by Steamer. It’s understandable that Lee would drop a bit in this mock draft because of his age (36) and his injury-shortened 2014 season (just 13 starts). Steamer has him starting 28 games with a 3.53 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 2015.

On the tail end of this group of pitchers were two more Steamer projected bargains: Marcus Stroman (38^th pitcher drafted, ranked 29^th) and Michael Wacha (40^th pitcher drafted, ranked 32^nd). Stroman was a 1^st round pick in 2012 and has a history of good minor league performances. He started 20 games with the Blue Jays last year and is getting some buzz heading into this year. Wacha has pitched well over two major league seasons but in limited time with just 28 starts over those two seasons. Steamer is projecting 27 starts in 2015 but the Fans are less optimistic, projecting just 23 starts (based on the projections of nine fans so far).

There were three pitchers in this group who were drafted much sooner than their projection would suggest—Yordano Ventura, Zack Wheeler, and Matt Shoemaker.

Steamer is projecting Ventura to have an ERA closer to his 2014 SIERA (3.87) than his actual 2014 ERA (3.20). Ventura was the 33^rd starting pitcher drafted and is ranked 64^th by Steamer.

Zack Wheeler was taken 34^th among starting pitchers and is ranked 69^th by Steamer. Wheeler has been in the bigs for two seasons and has a career ERA of 3.50 and WHIP of 1.34. Steamer is projecting a 3.90 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Wheeler was a 1^st round pick (6^th overall) in 2009 and has been a top prospect ever since, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him outpitch his projection.

Matt Shoemaker (39^th starting pitcher drafted, ranked 59^th by Steamer) has some similarities to Jacob deGrom. Both made their major league debuts at the age of 26, which is later than most successful big leaguers. deGrom had a 7.4 K/9 in 323 1/3 minor league innings, then struck out 9.2 per nine innings at the major league level. Matt Shoemaker had a 7.4 K/9 in 786 2/3 minor league innings and has struck out 8.2 per nine at the major league level. Both were liked much more by the people in this mock draft than their Steamer projections would suggest. Shoemaker has a career 2.94 ERA and 1.06 WHIP (3.26 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 3.19 SIERA), but Steamer is projecting a 4.06 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

After 40 starting pitchers were taken, there were 12 pitchers remaining who rank in the Steamer top 40. The pitchers undrafted at this point were Jose Fernandez (Steamer ranked 17^th), Brandon McCarthy (22^nd), John Lackey (25^th), Mike Fiers (26^th), Homer Bailey (28^th), Danny Salazar (30^th), Scott Kazmir (31^st), Francisco Liriano (33^rd), Phil Hughes (34^th), Ian Kennedy (37^th), Anibal Sanchez (38^th), and Jake Peavy (39^th).

Up next: Starting Pitchers 41-60

The following is a look at the first 20 starting pitchers taken in the FanGraphs Early Mock Draft, with a comparison to their rankings based on 2015 Steamer projections.

Starting Pitchers: 1-10

Every owner has his own theory on when to draft starting pitchers. Some like to get a couple of big guns early. Some won’t take a starting pitcher in the first few rounds because of the inherent uncertainty around pitchers. Some prefer to wait on pitching and go for high-risk, high-upside arms late in the draft or feel confident trolling the waiver wire during the season.

In this twelve-team mock draft, there were 12 starting pitchers taken in the first five rounds. These twelve pitchers were divided up among nine teams, with Zach Sanders being the first owner to draft two starting pitchers when he chose Felix Hernandez and Corey Kluber back-to-back at the end of the 2^nd and beginning of the 3^rd round. After Sanders, five other teams grabbed their second starter in the 5^th and 6^th rounds. The three owners who held off on pitchers were Pod, the Blue Sox, and Dan Schwartz, who all waited until the 7^th round or later to take their first starting pitcher.

The table below shows the first 10 pitchers drafted in this mock, along with their Steamer rank and the difference between their Steamer rank and the spot they were drafted. Pitchers with a positive difference were taken higher than their Steamer projection would suggest. Those with a negative difference were taken later than Steamer would have expected.

There was mostly agreement between the drafters and Steamer among the first 10 pitchers drafted. Corey Kluber went 5 picks earlier than his projection would suggest and Johnny Cueto went 4 picks early, but most pitchers were within a spot or two of their Steamer projected ranking.

Kluber has seen his K% jump from 19.2 to 22.4 to 28.3% over the last three years. Steamer expects some regression there, down to a 25.0% strikeout rate, but that’s still terrific. Kluber was solid in 2013 but last year was his first elite season. Is that enough to take him ahead of Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish, and David Price?

Johnny Cueto was taken 9^th and is the #14 pitcher by Steamer projection. Cueto had a big jump in innings from 60 innings in 2013 to 243 2/3 innings in 2014. That’s an unusual jump in the number of innings pitched from one year to the next and we just don’t know how it might affect him in 2015.

Starting Pitchers: 11-20

The next 10 starting pitchers were taken over rounds 5 through 9. Here’s the chart:

Here we start to see some big differences between the Steamer projection rankings and where some of these guys were taken in this mock. Jordan Zimmermann was taken about six picks early, according to Steamer, while Zack Greinke was taken six picks late. The big differences came with the 16^th, 17^th, and 18^th starting pitchers drafted—Julio Teheran, Sonny Gray, and Gerrit Cole.

Over the last two years, Julio Teheran has won 28 games with a 3.03 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, but with a 3.58 FIP. Steamer projects 10 wins, a 3.81 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, making him the 46^th-most-valuable starting pitcher. It should be noted that ZiPS has Teheran with a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, which would move him into the top 20.

Sonny Gray was the 17^th starting pitcher drafted in this mock and is ranked 61^st by Steamer. In his two-year big league career, Gray has a 2.99 ERA and 1.17 WHIP (with a 3.29 FIP, 3.34 xFIP, and 3.44 SIERA). Steamer is projecting a 3.81 ERA and 1.31 WHIP (3.62 FIP). A couple of reasons for this increase in ERA would be a higher projected BABIP (.297 compared to a career .277 mark) and lower LOB% (70.2% compared to a 74.6% career mark). ZiPS has Gray projected for a 3.36 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.

Like Gray, Gerrit Cole has just two years in the bigs. In 41 career starts, he has a career 3.45 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (3.09 FIP, 3.20 xFIP, 3.28 SIERA). His Steamer projection calls for a 3.63 ERA and 1.24 WHIP (3.43 FIP), which ranks him 40^th.

Julio Teheran, Sonny Gray, and Gerrit Cole were all taken well before their Steamer projections would suggest, but their actual career ERAs and WHIPs are much more favorable. It’s never a good idea to be a slave to projections, so if you like their upside, feel free to take them this early. Some pitchers taken shortly after Teheran, Gray, and Cole who are projected by Steamer to be more valuable were Matt Harvey, Carlos Carrasco, Alex Cobb, Masahiro Tanaka, and Hisashi Iwakuma.

Rounding out the top 20 pitchers taken in this mock were back-to-back selections by Dan Schwartz of Matt Harvey and Carlos Carrasco. These were the first two starting pitchers taken by Schwartz. He was able to hold off on starting pitching until the last pick of the 8^th round and still got two guys with great upside. Neither Harvey nor Carrasco are likely to be workhorses, but they could both be top starting pitchers in 2015.

There were four pitchers who rank in the Steamer top 20 who were not drafted in the top 20 in this mock draft—Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jose Fernandez, Cole Hamels, and Hisashi Iwakuma.

Up next: Starting Pitchers 21-40

Johnny Cueto was very good in 2014. By traditional metrics, he was excellent: 20 wins, 242 strikeouts in 243 2/3 innings, a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. By more advanced metrics, he was good but not quite that good: 3.30 FIP, 3.21 xFIP, 3.15 SIERA. Per FanGraphs, Cueto had 4.1 WAR, ranking him 14^th among pitchers. Baseball-Reference had Cueto with 6.4 WAR, which placed him 6^th among pitchers. No matter how you look at it, Johnny Cueto was good in 2014.

Johnny Cueto threw 3659 pitches during the regular season last year, making him one of only six pitchers to throw 3500 or more pitches. [NOTE: for this article, I’m only using major league regular season pitches thrown.] Cueto is not a big guy for a pitcher. He’s listed at 5’11, 215. The other five pitchers to throw 3500 or more pitches last year were David Price (6’6”, 220), Corey Kluber (6’4”, 215), James Shields (6’3”, 215), Max Scherzer (6’3”, 220), and R.A. Dickey (6’3”, 215). Of these six pitchers, Cueto had the greatest increase in pitches thrown from the previous year.

So, based on his high pitch total last year and low pitch total the year before, should we be worried about Johnny Cueto in 2015?

Let’s start with the high pitch total. Using the Baseball-Reference Play Index and the FanGraphs Leaderboards, I gathered some information. The following chart shows the number of pitchers who threw 3500 or more pitches each year going back to 2000, along with the average number of pitches thrown per pitcher in their high-pitch year, the average number of pitches thrown by those same pitchers in the following year, and the difference between the two.

As you might expect, pitchers who throw 3500 or more pitches one year are likely to throw fewer pitches the following year. That’s the nature of regression to the mean. To throw 3500 pitches, a pitcher is likely to be having a good, healthy season. Things happen in baseball and it’s difficult for any group of pitchers to have back-to-back good, healthy seasons. Some are going to get injured and some are going to pitch worse and pitch less. In this case, the average difference was 379 pitches. Over the last fourteen years, pitchers who throw 3500 or more pitches one season have averaged 379 fewer pitches the following season. These days, 379 pitches is about 3 or 4 starts.

What about performance following a 3500-plus pitch season? The following chart shows how pitchers who threw 3500 or more pitches in one season performed in the following season.

Once again, keeping in mind regression to the mean, it’s not surprising to see that these pitchers were worse the following season. Looking at ERA+, 58% of these pitchers were worse in the year following their high pitch total year. The majority (63%) also had lower strikeout rates, but improved walk rates (52% improved their walk rate in the year after their high pitch year).

More specifically, the following chart shows the difference in innings pitched (IP) and runs allowed per 9 innings (RA/9):

Over the last fourteen years, pitchers who threw 3500 or more pitches in one year averaged 228 innings pitched that year. In the following year, they dropped to 205 innings pitched, a difference of 23 innings (this matches up well with the 379 fewer pitches thrown). In their high pitch count year, these pitchers had an RA/9 of 3.87. The following year, their RA/9 went up to 4.08, an increase of 0.21 RA/9.

Is this bad news for Johnny Cueto and the other five pitchers who threw more than 3500 pitches in 2014? Not really. I’ve mentioned regression to the mean a couple times. Based on regression, we would expect these pitchers to pitch fewer innings and have a higher RA/9.

With this in mind, here is a look at these 131 pitchers and their innings pitched and RA/9 in the year after they threw 3500 or more pitches compared to their Marcel projections for that year. Thanks to The Baseball Projection Project, I was able to find Marcel projections going back to 2001. The following chart shows each pitcher’s next-year Marcel projection for innings pitched and RA/9, along with each pitcher’s next-year actual innings pitched and RA/9.

Over the last fourteen years, pitchers who threw 3500 or more pitches in a season were projected by Marcel to pitch 194 innings the following season. They actually pitched 205 innings in that following season, for an increase of 11 innings over their Marcel projection.

When it comes to performance, we find that these pitchers averaged a 3.87 RA/9 in their high pitch total season and were projected by Marcel for a 4.05 RA/9 for the following season. They actually had a 4.07 RA/9 in the following season. It’s a very slight increase of 0.02 RA/9, which shouldn’t be anything to worry about, really.

So it would appear that throwing 3500 pitches in one season should not be a big cause for alarm. The pitchers who have done this recently did not perform any worse than their projections would have expected.

With Cueto, though, there was that other thing that worried me—his large increase in pitches thrown from 2013 (953 pitches thrown) to 2014 (3659 pitches thrown).

With this in mind, I looked at the 131 pitchers in this study to find the pitchers who had the largest increase in pitches thrown from one year to the next. I set the limit at no more than 2000 pitches thrown in the year prior to that pitcher’s 3500-plus pitch season. There were only 10 pitchers, including Cueto, who threw fewer than 2000 pitches in one season and more than 3500 pitches the next season. That screams “small sample size!”

Unfortunately, there is a problem with even this group of comparable pitchers—they aren’t very good matches for the Johnny Cueto Experience. For example, one of them was Barry Zito. Zito only had 92 2/3 innings in the major leagues in 2000, the year before he threw more than 3500 pitches, but he also pitched 101 2/3 minor league innings that year, so there really wasn’t a big increase in the number of pitches thrown from one year to the next. He gets eliminated. The same is true for Steve Sparks, Roy Halladay, Randy Johnson, Noah Lowry, and Adam Wainwright, all of whom had additional minor league innings that would push them over the 2000 pitch limit. Unfortunately, that leaves very little to work with—just three pitchers (Woody Williams, Roy Oswalt, and Chris Capuano).

These three pitchers did throw fewer innings in the year after their 3500-plus pitch year, but to a lesser degree than the group as a whole and they pitched more innings than projected by Marcel. Also, this group actually improved their RA/9 in the year after their 3500-plus pitch year and were much better than their Marcel projection.

Based on throwing 3500 or more pitches, it doesn’t appear there’s anything to worry about with Cueto. Based on such a large increase in pitches thrown from one year to the next, we don’t really know because there just haven’t been many pitchers allowed to do that over the last 14 years. My gut still tells me to be wary but the numbers don’t see a problem.

As an avid reader of FanGraphs, I’ve been following the ongoing mock draft and thought it would be interesting to compare the results to the dollar value rankings I created using Steamer’s 2015 projections.

UPDATE: I downloaded the chat spreadsheet and the following commentary is up through the middle of the 21^st round, pick #249 (Rick Porcello). Here is a breakdown, position-by-position. I’ve included the overall pick and the dollar value for that player based on 2015 Steamer projections in parentheses.

Outfield—part 3

In part 1, I wrote about the first 20 outfielders taken in the FanGraphs Mock draft.

Part 2 had the next 20 outfielders. This is part 3.

In rounds 13 and 14, four outfielders went off the board. Brandon Moss (146^th–$13) was taken early in the 13^th round. Moss had a brutal second half of 2014, but Steamer projects him to hit 28 homers with 76 RBI in 2015. Five picks later went Gregory Polanco (151^st–$5). Polanco hit quite well in AAA last year but struggled in the big leagues. His Steamer projection calls for a .250/.310/.382 line but, at 23 years old, he could easily beat that. He’s also projected for 14 homers and 23 steals. Seven picks after Polanco was Avisail Garcia (164^th–$6), who is projected to be of similar value but in a different way, with more homers, RBI, and a better batting average but fewer steals. The final pick of the 14^th round was Arizona’s A.J. Pollock (168^th—[-$1]). Pollock hit .302 with 14 steals in 75 games in 2014, but is projected to be worth -$1 in 2015, with a .262 average and 16 steals in 127 games.

The next five outfielders were taken within nine picks of each other in the 15^th round. Here are the Steamer projections for this group:

578 AB, 79 R, 5 HR 47 RBI, 23 SB, .282 AVG—Denard Span (171^st–$11)

487 AB, 65 R, 24 HR, 74 RBI, 4 SB, .258 AVG—Oswaldo Arcia (172^nd–$12)

526 AB, 66 R, 10 HR, 56 RBI, 27 SB, .264 AVG—Leonys Martin (173^rd–$9)

564 AB, 77 R, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 19 SB, .270 AVG—Adam Eaton (177^th–$7)

537 AB, 60 R, 8 HR, 55 RBI, 21 SB, .267 AVG—Lorenzo Cain (179^th–$4)

Here in the 15^th round, drafters had four guys who provide some steals with varying levels of power and batting average ability and one guy who should hit 20 or more homers. Later in the draft, it becomes more about team need than value. If you get to the 15^th round and still need home run power, Oswaldo is your guy.

No outfielders were taken in the 16^th or 17^th rounds, but four came off the board in the 18^th. Danny Santana (211^th–$0) is more valuable at shortstop than outfield but his Steamer projection pegs him at replacement level even at the shortstop position. In seven minor league seasons, Santana hit .273/.317/.391. Then he came up last year and hit .319/.353/.472 for the Twins, with 7 homers and 20 steals in 101 games. He also had a .405 BABIP. If you take his stats with the Twins last season and adjust his BABIP from .405 to the .314 BABIP projected by Steamer for 2015, with all of the lost hits being singles, his batting line last year would have been .252/.288/.405. Steamer projects a .261/.299/.371 line. He should steal some bases (projected for 18), but don’t go overboard because of last year’s 100-game stint.

Two picks later, Michael Cuddyer (213^th–$8) was added by Eno. Cuddyer hit .307/.362/.525 in his three years with the Rockies but no one expects that kind of production this year with the Mets. This late in the draft, he looks like a good value, based on Steamer projections. He was the 51^st outfielder taken and is ranked 44^th by Steamer among outfielders.

Michael Saunders (214^th—[-$2]) was taken with the next pick. He’s only projected for 477 plate appearances, so he’s not expected to be as valuable as some other outfielders who are projected for more playing time. Saunders is a guy who could get to double-digits in homers and steals, so he’s not a bad flyer to take in the later rounds, particularly if you think he’ll play more than his projection.

The last of the four outfielders taken in the 18^th round was Arismendy Alcantara (216^th–$1). Alcantara has 2B eligibility and is more valuable at that spot. He will steal you some bags and has good power for a middle infielder, but the batting average will hurt you.

Seven outfielders were taken from rounds 19 through 22 and this group is all over the place. Here are the Steamer projections for this group of seven:

492 AB, 55 R, 10 HR, 58 RBI, 17 SB, .265 AVG—Alex Rios (221^st–$2)

377 AB, 48 R, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 28 SB, .265 AVG—Rajai Davis (229^th—[-$5])

552 AB, 75 R, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 19 SB, .241 AVG—Desmond Jennings (237^th–$6)

415 AB, 55 R, 16 HR, 55 RBI, 19 SB, .246 AVG—Steven Souza (240^th–$2)

510 AB, 64 R, 19 HR, 70 RBI, 4 SB, .247 AVG—Josh Hamilton (250^th–$5)

526 AB, 74 R, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 13 SB, .246 AVG—Dexter Fowler (251^st–$3)

567 AB, 73 R, 15 HR, 69 RBI, 4 SB, .284 AVG—Torii Hunter (253^rd–$14)

We’re getting to the late rounds and here you can get an idea of what might be available. There are guys who will steal some bases and reach double-digits in home runs, but they won’t help you much in RBI and will hurt you in batting average.

Alex Rios has been all over the place in his career, from a high wRC+ of 126 in 2012 to a low of 60 in 2011. Over the last three years, his wRC+ has dropped from 126 to 104 to 92. Steamer projects him to bump it up slightly to 95 next year.

Rajai Davis is a guy who won’t play every day, but will steal some bases when he’s in the lineup and has been particularly good against left-handed pitching, with a career wOBA against lefties of .353. He can be quite productive if used correctly.

Desmond Jennings had his best stretch of hitting in a 63-game stint in 2011 at the age of 24 (128 wRC+), but hasn’t been as good since. He’s one of the better options this late in the draft, but doesn’t seem likely to ever live up to his early promise.

Steven Souza’s projection is very similar to Jennings, minus some runs scored and in less playing time. If you think Souza will get more regular playing time than the 415 at-bats he’s projected for, he’s a guy to target.

Josh Hamilton’s two years with the Angels have been very disappointing and Steamer doesn’t see any improvement coming.

Dexter Fowler is similar to Jennings and Souza but with fewer projected steals.

Finally, Torii Hunter projects to be the best of this bunch, despite his advanced age (he’ll be 39 in 2015). Hunter was the 60^th outfielder taken but is ranked 31^st based on Steamer projections.

As an avid reader of FanGraphs, I’ve been following the ongoing mock draft and thought it would be interesting to compare the results to the dollar value rankings I created using Steamer’s 2015 projections.

UPDATE: I downloaded the chat spreadsheet and the following commentary is up through the middle of the 21^st round, pick #249 (Rick Porcello). Here is a breakdown, position-by-position. I’ve included the overall pick and the dollar value for that player based on 2015 Steamer projections in parentheses.

Outfield—part 2

In part 1, I looked at the twenty outfielders who were taken among the first 56 picks in the FanGraphs Mock Draft. This section covers the next 20 outfielders drafted, starting with round 6.

Four outfielders were taken in the 6^th round of the FanGraphs Mock, with Jason Heyward (62^nd–$20) going off the board early in the round. Steamer is projecting a significant increase in home runs for Heyward, from 11 last year to 20 in 2015. In his five-year career, Heyward has hit 20 or more homers just once, back in 2012. While Steamer likes Heyward to almost double his homer total from a year ago, the same is not true for the next outfielder drafted—Nelson Cruz (66^th–$15). Steamer projects a drop from 40 homers last year to 26 this year as Cruz moves from Baltimore to Seattle. This also comes with more than 100 fewer plate appearances, which contributes to a drop in his projection for runs (from 87 to 70) and RBI (from 108 to 80). He’s also projected for a drop in batting average (from .271 to .249). Christian Yelich (67^th–$18) was taken with the next pick. He’s projected to increase his homer total from 9 to 14 and maintain his base-stealing ability, but with a drop in batting average. Finally, on the very next pick the choice was Yoenis Cespedes (68^th–$23), who was the 24^th outfielder taken in this mock draft but is ranked 12^th among outfielders based on Steamer projections.

With these four outfielders, I could see very different opinions among fantasy owners. Do you believe in Nelson Cruz more than Steamer does? Do you think Heyward can hit 20 homers or Yelich can hit 14? How will Cespedes hit in Detroit? Steamer would rank them Cespedes, Heyward, Yelich, and Cruz. Your mileage may vary.

The 7^th round saw two outfielders on different career trajectories. Young Mookie Betts (will be 22 this year) had a good 52-game stretch last year but plays for the Red Sox who have a packed outfield at the moment. Steamer currently has Betts (73^rd—[-$1]) projected for 389 plate appearances, which gives him negative value despite a good batting line. Later in the 7^th round, 35-year-old Matt Holliday (80^th—$19) was taken. Steamer projects Holliday to have a similar season in 2015 as he had in 2014, but with 40 fewer at-bats, along with fewer runs scored and RBI. When it comes to drafting Betts before Holliday, you have to believe Betts will get regular playing time. Holliday has had 600 or more plate appearances in eight of the last nine years, so he’s much more of a sure thing.

Seven more outfielders were taken over a span of 16 picks in rounds 8 and 9. Here are their projections for 2015:

593 AB, 82 R, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 22 SB, .274 AVG—Charlie Blackmon (87^th–$22)

573 AB, 80 R, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 9 SB, .270 AVG—Alex Gordon (89^th–$18)

574 AB, 82 R, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 9 SB, .263 AVG—Kole Calhoun (90^th–$17)

524 AB, 78 R, 18 HR, 73 RBI, 7 SB, .285 AVG—Jayson Werth (95^th–$20)

496 AB, 64 R, 24 HR, 72 RBI, 8 SB, .239 AVG—Jay Bruce (98^th–$8)

565 AB, 66 R, 22 HR, 76 RBI, 4 SB, .255 AVG—Marcell Ozuna (100^th–$11)

555 AB, 76 R, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 6 SB, .288 AVG—Melky Cabrera (102^nd–$15)

These projections (and this mock draft) are from before it was announced that Jayson Werth had surgery on the AC joint in his shoulder. He may not reach 524 at-bats in 2015, but the injury is not expected to keep him out for too long.

Of this group of seven outfielders, Blackmon’s projected steals and otherwise solid numbers make him more valuable than the rest. Alex Gordon, Kole Calhoun, and Jayson Werth are similarly valued. You could go for the upside play with the younger Calhoun or the steadiness of veteran Alex Gordon.

The next three outfielders don’t project to be as valuable as the top group, but there’s enough variation possible that they could get to that level. Jay Bruce had the worst year of his career in 2014, hitting just .217/.281/.373. Taking him in the 9^th round is hoping for a bounce back season. Marcell Ozuna is six years younger and will likely hit for more power with a lower batting average than Melky Cabrera, so I could see an argument for taking him before the Melk-Man.

In the 10^th round, three more outfielders went off the board. Before last season, Shin-Soo Choo (110^th–$16) was a hot commodity coming off a 20-20 season with a .285/.423/.462 batting line and moving to a great hitter’s park in Texas. Unfortunately, he was a big disappointment. He played just 123 games and hit .242/.340/.374. He’ll be 32 in 2015 and Steamer likes him to rebound, but not to anything close to that 2013 season. Wil Myers (113^th–$2) isn’t a favorite of Steamer but he has youth on his side and a good pedigree and could easily beat his projection. Jorge Soler (117^th–$13) played at four levels last season. He had just 8 games in the Rookie league, then destroyed AA (.415/.494/.862 in 22 games), continued to hit well in AAA (.282/.378/.618 in 32 games) and kept it up with the Cubs in the big leagues (.292/.330/.573 in 24 games). He’s only 23 years old and has a nice projection for 2015. I’d be inclined to take him over Myers and Choo, just for the upside.

The next four outfielders taken, from pick 122 to pick 143, includes two players who do not have Steamer projections. Rusney Castillo is one of those, taken with pick #122. His playing time is in question because of the Red Sox outfield logjam, but the Sox signed him for six years and $72 million last August, so he should get a chance to play. I do have projections from Cairo and Davenport for Castillo. Averaging Castillo’s projections from Cairo and Davenport, we get 241 at-bats, with a .279/.325/.429 batting line, 6 homers, and 8 steals. If you double that line to approximate a full season, he would be worth $10 and be the #40 outfielder. He was taken 37^th among outfielders in this mock draft.

Brett Gardner (136^th–$11) was taken 14 picks after Castillo. Early in his career, Gardner had back-to-back seasons with 47 and 49 steals. He’s more of a 20-steals guy these days, but did just have a big homer year, hitting a career-high 17 in 2014. Steamer expects a drop to 12 homers in 2015, with the rest of his numbers being very similar to last year.

Taken shortly after Gardner was Ben Revere (142^nd–$8). Revere will steal you plenty of bases (49 last year), but his RBI output is reminiscent of Rob Picciolo. Revere went the first three-plus years of his career without hitting a home run, then muscled up for two long balls last year. This is his age-27 season and Steamer is expecting a career-high of three dingers in 2015. I would take the under on that projection.

The fourth player taken in this group was Yasmany Tomas. Steamer has nothing to work with here. Tomas was signed by the Diamondbacks in December to a six-year, $68.5 million deal. He could play third base or the outfield and is expected to hit for power after hitting 30 home runs in 205 regular-season games in Cuba, going back to 2008.

In part 3: the next 20 outfielders drafted.

As an avid reader of FanGraphs, I’ve been following the ongoing mock draft and thought it would be interesting to compare the results to the dollar value rankings I created using Steamer’s 2015 projections.

UPDATE: I downloaded the chat spreadsheet and the following commentary is up through the middle of the 21^st round, pick #249 (Rick Porcello). Here is a breakdown, position-by-position. I’ve included the overall pick and the dollar value for that player based on 2015 Steamer projections in parentheses.

Outfield

The top three picks in the FanGraphs Mock Draft were outfielders Mike Trout (1^st–$55), Andrew McCutchen (2^nd–$39), and Giancarlo Stanton (3^rd–$48).

At the top of the outfield rankings is the amazing Mike Trout, who can basically do anything on the baseball field. He’s the clear-cut top pick. The next two outfielders drafted were Andrew McCutchen and Giancarlo Stanton. Steamer projects Stanton to be more valuable than McCutchen, with a career-high in runs scored and homers. McCutchen is Trout-like, but with fewer homers, runs, and RBIs projected. After Trout, you could go either way with pick #2. You want big time power, take Stanton. You want power and steals, take McCutchen. I prefer McCutchen myself.

Late in the first round, there was a run during which six outfielders were drafted between pick #9 and pick #23. Jose Bautista (9^th–$42) was the fourth outfielder taken but Steamer actually likes him more than McCutchen. Bautista had 673 plate appearances last year and is projected for 653 this year. He will be 34, though, and in the two seasons before last year he was limited to 399 and 528 plate appearances. Just based on age, he’s a little bit of a risk compared to the other top 10 outfielders. Carlos Gomez (12^th–$27) was next, then Yasiel Puig (13^th–$31). Puig is more valuable because he’s projected for more runs, RBI, and a higher batting average, while Gomez has the edge in projected steals. Three picks after Puig came the back-to-back selections of Jacoby Ellsbury (16^th–$24) and Adam Jones (17^th—$29). The edge here for Jones comes in homers and RBI, while Ellsbury should steal many more bases. The final outfielder taken in the 2^nd round was Bryce Harper. After two injury-shortened seasons, Steamer is projecting Harper to play just as much as he did in his debut season (projected for 594 plate appearances) and hit 25 homers with 10 stolen bases.

Four more outfielders were taken in the third round, all within seven picks of each other. The controversial Ryan Braun (28^th–$27) was the first outfielder taken in the third round, directly followed by 2014 breakout player Michael Brantley (29^th–$20). The next pick was Justin Upton (30^th–$14) and Carlos Gonzalez (34^th–$24) came four picks later. Let’s look at this group of outfielders, starting with their averages over the last three years:

451 AB, 69 R, 23 HR, 77 RBI, 15 SB, .295 AVG—Ryan Braun

573 AB, 74 R, 12 HR, 77 RBI, 17 SB, .301 AVG—Michael Brantley

559 AB, 93 R, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 11 SB, .271 AVG—Justin Upton

390 AB, 65 R, 20 HR, 64 RBI, 15 SB, .288 AVG—Carlos Gonzalez

Based on the last three years, Upton looks like the most valuable outfielder among this group, but his Steamer projection is the worst of the bunch. Braun missed two-thirds of the 2013 season because of a PED suspension and was not the hitter he’d been when he got back on the field in 2014. Carlos Gonzalez is risky because he seemingly gets injured every year. Michael Brantley had the best 2014 season among these players, but it was out of line with what he had done before. Here are the 2015 Steamer projections for these four players:

546 AB, 79 R, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 13 SB, .278 AVG—Ryan Braun ($27)

575 AB, 75 R, 13 HR, 72 RBI, 14 SB, .290 AVG—Michael Brantley ($20)

530 AB, 71 R, 23 HR, 74 RBI, 8 SB, .253 AVG—Justin Upton ($14)

475 AB, 74 R, 24 HR, 77 RBI, 11 SB, .282 AVG—Carlos Gonzalez ($24)

Upton’s projection is the most interesting one here because it’s much worse than his three-year averages. He’s moving to a tough ballpark in San Diego and will be on a team that scored the fewest runs in baseball last year by a good margin, but his former team, the Atlanta Braves, scored the second-fewest runs last year and the Padres should be much better offensively in 2015 than they were in 2014.

Here is a comparison of Upton’s projections from Steamer, ZiPS, Cairo, and Davenport.

530 AB, 71 R, 23 HR, 74 RBI, 8 SB, .253 AVG—Justin Upton—Steamer ($14)

567 AB, 94 R, 26 HR, 85 RBI, 12 SB, .261 AVG—Justin Upton—ZiPS ($31)

564 AB, 86 R, 25 HR, 86 RBI, 10 SB, .265 AVG—Justin Upton—Cairo ($28)

515 AB, 68 R, 18 HR 76 RBI, 9 SB, .259 AVG—Justin Upton—Davenport ($12)

That’s a pretty big spread. Steamer and Davenport have Upton as a $12 to $14 player, while ZiPS and Cairo have him in the $28 to $31 range. At the high range, Upton would be a top 10 outfielder. At the low range, he’s outside the top 30. In this mock, he was the 12^th outfielder drafted.

Four outfielders were taken in the fourth round and all have similar value according to Steamer: Hunter Pence (38^th–$18), Corey Dickerson (42^nd–$18), Billy Hamilton (43^rd–$20), and Starling Marte (44^th–$18). Pence and Dickerson have similar overall projections and, thus, similar value. Hamilton’s projection for 68 steals makes him the top base-stealing outfielder out there, but he’ll hurt you in homers, RBI, and batting average. Marte isn’t likely to hit as many homers as Pence or Dickerson, but will steal more bases.

The fifth round saw three more outfielders taken, which meant 20 were now off the board.In this round, two younger players and a veteran were drafted, starting with J.D. Martinez (51^st–$19). Martinez didn’t hit much in his first three partial seasons in the major leagues (.251/.300/.387), but had a very good 2014 season (.315/.358/.553 with 23 homers in 123 games). Steamer doesn’t expect Martinez to reach those heights this year, but he’s still projected for 22 homers and 80 RBI. George Springer (55^th–$20) had a good half-season in 2014 and Steamer likes him to hit 28 homers and steal 15 bases in 2015, putting him in the top 20 among all outfielders. The veteran, Matt Kemp, doesn’t have such a rosy outlook. Moving to San Diego should bring his numbers down. He is ranked 38^th among outfielders based on Steamer projections and his Cairo and Davenport projections aren’t much better (no ZiPS yet).

Final Notes for Part 1: Fifteen of the first twenty outfielders taken in the FanGraphs Mock Draft are ranked in the top 20 for outfielders based on Steamer projections. The outfielders drafted who are NOT ranked in the Steamer top 20 are Justin Upton (FanGraphs—12^th, Steamer—32^nd), Hunter Pence (FanGraphs—14^th, Steamer 23^rd), Corey Dickerson (FanGraphs—15^th, Steamer—21^st), Starling Marte (FanGraphs—17^th, Steamer—22^nd), and Matt Kemp (FanGraphs—20^th, Steamer—38^th). These are the guys that the FanGraphs mock drafters like more than Steamer.

The outfielders missing from the FanGraphs Top 20 but included in the Steamer Top 20 are Yoenis Cespedes (ranked 12^th by Steamer, $23), Charlie Blackmon (Steamer—13^th, $22), Jayson Werth (Steamer—16^th, $20), Jason Heyward (Steamer—17^th, $20), and Matt Holliday (Steamer—19^th, $19).

Up next, more outfielders.

As an avid reader of FanGraphs, I’ve been following the ongoing mock draft and thought it would be interesting to compare the results to the dollar value rankings I created using Steamer’s 2015 projections.

I downloaded the draft spreadsheet partway through the 16^th round, just after pick 183 (Chase Headley). Here is a breakdown, position-by-position. I’ve included the overall pick and the dollar value for that player based on 2015 Steamer projections in parentheses.

UPDATE: I downloaded the chat spreadsheet and the following commentary is up through the middle of the 21^st round, pick #249 (Rick Porcello).

Catcher

The top of the catcher rankings consists of one guy: Buster Posey (35^th–$29). Not only is Posey a great hitter; he also gets more playing time than most catchers because he can play first base when he’s not behind the dish. In this mock draft, Posey was taken late in the third round, ahead of such players as Jason Kipnis, Stephen Strasburg, Hunter Pence, Yu Darvish, Ian Kinsler, and David Price. The next catcher off the board came five rounds later. Based on this mock and Steamer projection-based dollar values, Posey is on a tier of his own.

The 8^th round saw two more catchers get drafted. Jonathan Lucroy (88^th–$5) and Yan Gomes (91^st–$7) were taken within three picks of each other. Steamer has Lucroy projected for 98 games and 424 plate appearances, which has to be considered far too low. Lucroy played in 147 games in 2013 and 153 in 2014 and it sounds like he’ll get time at first base against left-handed pitching this year. He really should be only below Posey in value, but his low playing time projection has him ranked 11^th among catchers by Steamer. Yan Gomes is also projected to get less playing time in 2015 than he did in 2014 and also figures to come up short of the 21 homers and 74 RBI that he produced last season.

Two more catchers were taken in the 12^th round. Brian McCann (133^rd–$18) is projected for similar counting stats as he had in 2014 but with a better batting average. Devin Mesoraco (137^th–$4) had a breakout 2014 season when he hit .273 with 25 homers and 80 RBI in 114 games. Steamer has him down for a .246 average, 18 homers, and 54 RBI in 102 games. He’s the #12 catcher according to these projections. Two rounds and 25 picks after Mesoraco was taken, Yadier Molina (162^nd–$1) went off the board. From 2009 to 2013, Molina averaged 138 games and 537 plate appearances per season (hitting .299/.356/.435). He’ll be 32 this season and was limited to 110 games last year because of an oblique injury. He’s expected to be fully healthy by spring training, but Steamer still has him projected for fewer games in 2015 than he had in his injury-shortened 2014 season.

There was a run on catchers in rounds 16 and 17. Evan Gattis (189^th–$20) got it started with the 189^th pick and three more catchers were taken among the next 13 choices: Travis d’Arnaud (193^rd–$8), Wilin Rosario (195^th—[-$1]), and Salvador Perez (202^nd–$9). Based on Steamer projections, Gattis is by far the most valuable among this group, and second to Posey overall among catchers, while Rosario looks like the worst value. Let’s look at their 2015 Steamer projections:

528 AB, 63 R, 26 HR, 77 RBI, 2 SB, .243 AVG—Evan Gattis (189^th–$20)

454 AB, 54 R, 17 HR, 61 RBI, 2 SB, .251 AVG—Travis d’Arnaud (193^rd–$8)

271 AB, 36 R, 14 HR, 43 RBI, 2 SB, .278 AVG—Wilin Rosario (195^th—[-$1])

449 AB, 52 R, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 1 SB, .274 AVG—Salvador Perez (202^nd–$9)

Here again, playing time is a major driving factor in the valuations. In his two seasons in the big leagues, Gattis has averaged 351 at-bats per season but is being projected for 528 AB by Steamer right now. Travis d’Arnaud had 385 at-bats last year and is projected for 454 this year, with better triple-slash numbers. Rosario is on the other side. He’s had three straight years with 382 or more at-bats but is projected for 271 at-bats in 2015. He still has the power numbers (.488 projected slugging percentage) and a solid batting average (.278), but the playing time is short. Similarly, Salvador Perez is coming off a season in which he played 150 games and had 578 at-bats. The previous year, he had 496 at-bats. In 2015, he’s projected for 449 at-bats.

In round 20, Russell Martin (236^th–$10) was taken, making him the 11^th catcher taken in this mock. Steamer has Martin projected for 434 at-bats with 16 homers and 59 RBI and he’s valued as the #4 catcher.

Final notes: With these assorted playing time questions, it’s difficult to judge the FanGraphs mock draft when it comes to the catcher position. Posey is clearly #1 and I think Lucroy is an easy #2. Beyond that, the rankings can change easily based on adjustments in projected playing time. A few guys that Steamer likes better than some already drafted are Matt Wieters, Wilson Ramos, and Stephen Vogt. In a 12-team league with one starting catcher, you could go for Posey or Lucroy or maybe even McCann. After that, just wait it out and see what’s still there late in the draft.

As an avid reader of FanGraphs, I’ve been following the ongoing mock draft and thought it would be interesting to compare the results to the dollar value rankings I created using Steamer’s 2015 projections.

I downloaded the draft spreadsheet partway through the 16^th round, just after pick 183 (Chase Headley). Here is a breakdown, position-by-position. I’ve included the overall pick and the dollar value for that player based on 2015 Steamer projections in parentheses.

Shortstop

Three shortstops were taken in the first two rounds of the FanGraphs Mock Draft: Troy Tulowitzki (11^th–$41), Ian Desmond (20^th–$18), and Hanley Ramirez (24^th–$34). Troy Tulowitzki always comes with the caveat “if healthy”. If healthy, Tulowitzki is the best shortstop in baseball. If healthy, Tulowitzki is a first round pick. If healthy, Tulowitzki can lead a fantasy team to a championship. The problem is, he hasn’t played more than 126 games since 2011. Over the last three years, he’s averaged 88 games played, but has hit .316/.399/.551 when he’s been healthy. In this mock draft, he was the first shortstop off the board, taken late in the first round. Steamer projects him for 523 at-bats and to be the most valuable shortstop by a good margin. The players taken immediately after Tulo in this mock were Carlos Gomez, Yasiel Puig, Anthony Rendon, Jose Altuve, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Adam Jones. If healthy, Tulo should deliver more value than any of them, but taking him there is a known risk.

The next two shortstops to be drafted were Ian Desmond and Hanley Ramirez, taken 20^th and 24^th, respectively. Here, Steamer much prefers Hanley ($34) over Desmond ($18), but that comes with 602 projected plate appearances for Hanley Ramirez, a number he hasn’t reached since 2012. He’s Troy Tulowitzki-lite, a good producer who has trouble staying healthy. He’s played in 86 and 128 games the last two years. Desmond, on the other hand, has back-to-back seasons with around 650 plate appearances in each. He’s also reached at least 20 homers and 20 steals in three consecutive seasons. It’s easy to see why someone would take Desmond ahead of Hanley despite the big dollar value difference projected by Steamer that favors Ramirez.

Two shortstops were drafted over rounds 5 and 6. Jose Reyes (50^th–$25) was taken early in the 5^th round, while Starlin Castro (70^th–$9) was taken late in the 6^th. Based on Steamer, there’s an argument that Reyes is as valuable as Desmond (2^nd round pick), but again, you have to trust that he’ll get the 640 plate appearances he’s projected for. Reyes has played 143 or more games in two of the last three seasons and he’s been productive, with an average of 79 runs scored and 28 steals per season from 2012 to 2014. Castro is seven years younger and likely to play in more games, but he doesn’t steal bases like he use to (just 10 steals over the last two seasons) and has a lower batting average and on-base percentage than Reyes over the last three seasons. Reyes could be moved to a tier above Castro. Or perhaps Castro should be moved down to the next group.

In the 9^th and 10^th rounds, Xander Bogaerts (103^rd–$7) and Alexei Ramirez (115^th–$12) were drafted. This is a spot where you could bypass Castro in the 6^th round and take Bogaerts or Ramirez in the 9^th or 10^th round. Look at their 2015 Steamer projections:

530 AB, 63 R, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 8 SB, .274 AVG—Starlin Castro (70^th–$9)

493 AB, 64 R, 15 HR 63 RBI, 5 SB, .256 AVG—Xander Bogaerts (103^rd–$7)

595 AB, 67 R, 11 HR, 63 RBI, 17 SB, .265 AVG—Alexei Ramirez (115^th–$12)

Ramirez is the oldest of the three (will be 33 in 2015), but has been better over the last few years than Castro and better than Bogaerts was last year, although Bogaerts will be just 22 in 2015, so his upside is considerable. With Castro no longer stealing bases like he once did, I would take Ramirez ahead of him. Castro and Bogaerts are comparable even though they were taken 33 picks apart.

The final three shortstops to be drafted as of the 16^th round were Alcides Escobar (150^th–$4), Elvis Andrus (159^th–$15), and Jimmy Rollins (170^th–$7). Here are their 2015 Steamer projections:

562 AB, 60 R, 5 HR, 50 RBI, 23 SB, .260 AVG—Alcides Escobar (150^th–$4)

599 AB, 76 R, 4 HR, 54 RBI, 28 SB, .269 AVG—Elvis Andrus (159^th–$15)

561 AB, 72 R, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 20 SB, .237 AVG—Jimmy Rollins (170^th–$7)

All three are projected to steal 20 or more bases and produce similar RBI, with Rollins hitting more homers with a worse batting average and Andrus and Rollins looking to score more runs than Escobar.

Another comparison would be their last three seasons (average production per season):

597 AB, 66 R, 4 HR, 51 RBI, 29 SB, .270 AVG—Alcides Escobar (will be 28)

623 AB, 83 R, 3 HR, 57 RBI, 30 SB, .274 AVG—Elvis Andrus (will be 26)

590 AB, 82 R, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 27 SB, .249 AVG—Jimmy Rollins (will be 36)

Andrus is the youngest and the best bet to play 150 or more games, which he’s done in each of the last four seasons. Rollins is older but can provide power and steals if you can take the hit in average. Escobar looks like the weakest link here.

Final notes: In this mock draft, there were three shortstops in the top tier: Tulowitzki, Desmond, and Hanley Ramirez. I would add Jose Reyes to this group. The next two shortstops drafted here were Starlin Castro and Xander Bogaerts, despite both being projected to be less valuable than Alexei Ramirez and Elvis Andrus. I would swap the groupings, putting Alexei and Elvis above Castro and Bogaerts, but I could see where someone could put all four in the same general area. Alcides Escobar and Jimmy Rollins are next and Jhonny Peralta (not yet drafted in the mock) would fit in with these two.

As an avid reader of FanGraphs, I’ve been following the ongoing mock draft and thought it would be interesting to compare the results to the dollar value rankings I created using Steamer’s 2015 projections.

I downloaded the draft spreadsheet partway through the 16^th round, just after pick 183 (Chase Headley). Here is a breakdown, position-by-position. I’ve included the overall pick and the dollar value for that player based on 2015 Steamer projections in parentheses.

Third Base

Four third basemen were drafted in the second and third rounds: Anthony Rendon (14^th–$26), Josh Donaldson (25^th–$24), Adrian Beltre (26^th–$30), and Evan Longoria (32^nd–$17). Rendon being the first third baseman drafted isn’t a surprise. He had a terrific 2014 season (111 R, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 17 SB, .287 AVG). Steamer projects regression in all of those categories, so his value drops from what he did last year. He also has youth on his side, being just 25 years old in 2015, and is in a good Washington Nationals’ lineup. His $26 valuation is based on second base eligibility (25 games there in 2014), so it is a little higher than if he were only eligible at third base.

Josh Donaldson was taken nine picks later and is projected for similar value, but in a different shape (more homers and RBI, fewer steals and a lower batting average). Adrian Beltre was taken with the very next pick and has the most valuable projection according to Steamer. He’s also heading into his age 36 season and saw his homers drop from 30 in 2013 to last year’s 19. Finally, Evan Longoria was taken six picks after Beltre. Longoria’s rate stats last year were well below his career averages (he hit .253/.320/.404), but Steamer sees a bounce-back to better numbers in 2015. Here are the projections for the upcoming season for these four players:

573 AB, 85 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 11 SB, .279 AVG—Anthony Rendon (14^th–$26)

558 AB, 83 R, 27 HR, 88 RBI, 5 SB, .264 AVG—Josh Donaldson (25^th–$24)

576 AB, 82 R, 24 HR, 94 RBI, 1 SB, .297 AVG—Adrian Beltre (26^th–$30)

567 AB, 78 R, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 3 SB, .256 AVG—Evan Longoria (32^nd–$17)

I would argue that Rendon, Donaldson, and Beltre belong on their own tier (in whatever order you prefer), with Longoria moving down to the next group.

In round 5, two more third basemen were taken within three picks of each other: Kyle Seager (57^th–$15) and Nolan Arenado (59^th–$18). The projections for these two are very similar:

562 AB, 75 R, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 7 SB, .262 AVG—Kyle Seager (57^th–$15)

571 AB, 73 R, 20 HR, 82 RBI, 3 SB, .282 AVG—Nolan Arenado (59^th–$18)

Seager has three straight years with similar production and will be 27 in 2015. He seems a good bet to hit that projection. He’s also played 155 or more games in each of the last three seasons. Arenado has two years in the big leagues, with the 133 games he played in 2013 being a career high (111 games last year). He’s younger and has the Coors Field advantage. I think you could go either way here and, as I mentioned above, I think Longoria fits better with these two than he does with the top three.

At the end of round 6 and into round 7, three more third basemen came off the board: David Wright (69^th–$8), Todd Frazier (75^th–$8), and Pablo Sandoval (78^th–$19). Wright is coming off an ugly season that saw him hit .269/.324/.374 with 8 homers in 134 games, but it was only two years ago that Wright slugged over .500, so he’s a good candidate to bounce back at least somewhat. He will be 32 years old, though. Todd Frazier had a very big 2014 season when he set career-highs in runs, homers, RBI, steals, and tied his career best in batting average. Steamer projects all of those numbers to come down this year. Sandoval projects to be significantly better than Wright or Frazier. He is moving to a better ballpark for hitters and a better lineup to produce runs and RBI. Let’s look at the three-year averages for these players:

515 AB, 69 R, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 13 SB, .294 AVG—David Wright (will be 32)

517 AB, 69 R, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 10 SB, .259 AVG—Todd Frazier (will be 29)

503 AB, 60 R, 14 HR, 72 RBI, 0 SB, .280 AVG—Pablo Sandoval (will be 28)

Over the last three years, they are essentially even in RBI. Wright and Frazier have the potential to steal some bases, while Sandoval won’t do anything for you there. Frazier comes with the best potential for home run production, but lowest batting average. For 2015, I would take Sandoval, then Frazier, then Wright.

Three more third basemen were taken in rounds 9, 10, and 11: Manny Machado (108^th–$12), Matt Carpenter (109^th–$5), and Josh Harrison (125^th–$12).

This is an interesting trio of players taken within 17 picks of each other. Machado is going to be 22 years old. He only played in 82 games last year, but played in 156 games in 2013 and scored 88 runs with 14 homers, 71 RBI, 6 steals, and a .283 batting average as a 20-year-old. With youth on his side, he has the greatest potential of these three, so it’s not surprising he was taken ahead of Carpenter and Harrison.

The Steamer projection for Carpenter seems low on runs, in particular. Carpenter scored 126 runs in 2013 and 99 last year, but is projected for just 81 this year, despite a .368 on-base percentage. He won’t hit many homers or steal many bases, so his value is in runs scored and a solid batting average. He’s boringly consistent.

Josh Harrison had a good 2014 season (77 R, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 18 SB, .315 AVG). If he were five years younger and played for the Red Sox, he would be getting the Mookie Betts love as a multi-position guy who can contribute in all five hitting categories. Unfortunately, Harrison doesn’t have a great history before 2014. In his three previous seasons with the Pirates, Harrison hit .250/.282/.367 with 7 homers and 13 steals in 532 at-bats. He’s projected by Steamer to be as valuable as Machado in 2015, but I believe the risk is higher. If you’re looking at these three on draft day, Machado is likely the best option, then you have to decide whether you want to go with the boringly consistent Matt Carpenter or the higher potential but bigger risk of Josh Harrison.

The last two third basemen taken at this point of the draft were Kris Bryant (155^th—[-$13]) and Chase Headley (183^rd–$6). Bryant is projected for negative value because Steamer has him getting roughly a half-season of major league playing time. His hitting production (39 R, 16 HR, 42 RBI, 5 SB, .261 AVG IN 267 AB) would move him way up the third base rankings if he were to get 500 at-bats. Chase Headley was taken in the 16^th round but his projections are pretty close to David Wright’s and Wright was taken ten rounds earlier. Here’s the comparison:

512 AB, 66 R, 16 HR, 65 RBI, 9 SB, .275 AVG—David Wright (69^th–$8)

518 AB, 69 R, 17 HR, 67 RBI, 8 SB, .257 AVG—Chase Headley (183^rd–$6)

If you believe in Steamer, you can pass on Wright in the earlier rounds and take Headley much later.

Final notes: I believe there’s a clear top three at third base in Rendon, Donaldson, and Beltre, which becomes a top two if Rendon is slotted at second base. Longoria belongs with Seager and Arenado in the next grouping. You could move Sandoval up to this group if you are encouraged by his move to the Red Sox. David Wright and Todd Frazier could be combined with Manny Machado, Matt Carpenter, and Josh Harrison to form a diverse group that will give you different options depending on your team needs and willingness to take some risks in your draft. Kris Bryant’s outlook is mainly dependent on playing time. Chase Headley is a fallback option that would allow you to bypass guys like David Wright and Todd Frazier in the earlier rounds. Finally, Pedro Alvarez had not yet been drafted when I downloaded the draft spreadsheet. He is a risky pick but could be as valuable as the David Wright/Todd Frazier/Chase Headley group.

As an avid reader of FanGraphs, I’ve been following the ongoing mock draft and thought it would be interesting to compare the results to the dollar value rankings I created using Steamer’s 2015 projections.

I downloaded the draft spreadsheet partway through the 16^th round, just after pick 183 (Chase Headley). Here is a breakdown, position-by-position. I’ve included the overall pick and the dollar value for that player based on 2015 Steamer projections in parentheses.

Second Base

At the top of the rankings for second base, there are two clear-cut guys, according to Steamer projections: Robinson Cano and Jose Altuve. Cano (7^th–$29) was taken with the 7^th pick of the 1^st round, ahead of Jose Abreu, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion, all of whom project to be more valuable. Cano saw a big drop-off in home run production in his first season in Seattle. After hitting 25 or more homers for five consecutive years, Cano hit just 14 in 2014. Steamer projects him to hit 18 in 2015. Jose Altuve (15^th–$32) was taken 8 picks later, but projects to be more valuable, thanks mainly to his potential for 30 or more steals and a higher batting average. Personally, I would not have taken Cano ahead of Abreu, Bautista, or Encarnacion. I’m not sure he’s still a 1^st-round pick. I could see an argument for taking him ahead of Altuve, despite the Steamer projections.

Three more second basemen were taken in rounds 3 and 4: Jason Kipnis (36^th–$12), Ian Kinsler (40^th–$22), and Dee Gordon (45^th–$14). Gordon has his own unique set of skills, so I’ll set him aside for a moment and compare Kipnis to Kinsler. Kinsler was clearly better than Kipnis last year, although Kipnis was dealing with injuries. Here are their three-year averages:

552 AB, 78 R, 12 HR, 67 RBI, 28 SB, .261 AVG—Jason Kipnis

628 AB, 97 R, 16 HR, 79 RBI, 17 SB, .269 AVG—Ian Kinsler

This is how Steamer projects them for 2015:

540 AB, 71 R, 13 HR, 62 RBI, 20 SB, .253 AVG—Jason Kipnis ($12)

612 AB, 87 R, 16 HR, 67 RBI, 14 SB, .266 AVG—Ian Kinsler ($22)

The x-factor is that Kipnis will be 28 in 2015 and Kinsler will be 33. If you expect Kinsler to start an early-30s fade, then perhaps Kipnis is your guy. I would have taken Kinsler first.

As for Gordon, he’s one of very few players in baseball who can be expected to steal 50 or more bases (he had 64 last year). If you’re willing to take the hit in home runs and RBI to get the bulk of your steals from one guy, he’s a good option. Otherwise, you’ll likely be looking at needing two or three players to get you 50 steals.

Two more second basemen were taken in the 7^th round: Brian Dozier (76^th–$11) and Dustin Pedroia (81^st–$17). Brian Dozier has hit 18 and 23 homers in the last two seasons, albeit with a low .240s batting average. He also scored a surprising 112 runs last year and stole 21 bases. Dustin Pedroia has seen his power drop, going from 21 homers in 2011 to 15 to 9 to last year’s 7. His steals have also fallen off considerably, from 26 to 20 to 17 to 6. Here are their 2015 Steamer projections:

576 AB, 78 R, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 16 SB, .240 AVG—Brian Dozier ($11)

553 AB, 78 R, 10 HR, 68 RBI, 10 SB, .283 AVG—Dustin Pedrioa ($17)

Even though Pedroia’s projected to be more valuable, I could see going with Dozier based on recent trends. Also, he’s three years younger.

In rounds 9 and 10, three more second basemen were drafted: Howie Kendrick (99^th–$2), Javier Baez (112^th–$5), and Kolten Wong (114^th–$1). Steamer projects Kendrick to drop back to his 2013 levels, as opposed to what he did in 2014. It’s a significant drop of 30 runs scored, 17 RBI, 6 steals, and about 20 points of batting average, which considerably drops his value. Baez is a high-risk, high-reward player. He could hit the 23 homers projected by Steamer (with a 30% strikeout rate) or he could strike out 40% of the time and be sent back to the minors for more seasoning. We just don’t know. Wong hit 12 homers and stole 20 bases in 113 games in 2014, so he has the most potential as a HR/SB dual-threat. He’s also projected for less playing time than Kendrick, which cuts into his value.

The next three second basemen drafted would appear to be “safer” picks than the previous three: Daniel Murphy (123^rd–$8), Ben Zobrist (129^th–$12), and Neil Walker (139^th–$11). These three also project to be more valuable than the previous three. Let’s look at their projections:

572 AB, 67 R, 9 HR, 56 RBI, 11 SB, .277 AVG—Daniel Murphy ($8)

540 AB, 75 R, 12 HR, 61 RBI, 9 SB, .262 AVG—Ben Zobrist ($12)

501 AB, 67 R, 17 HR, 66 RBI, 3 SB, .273 AVG—Neil Walker ($11)

Zobrist gets a slight bump because he has shortstop eligibility (31 games played there in 2014). With the shortstop replacement level, Zobrist is worth $12. Based on the second base replacement level, he’s worth $10. With these three players, you can expect more homers from Walker, more steals from Murphy, and you have the multi-positional eligibility of Zobrist.

One could easily argue that any or all of these three players could be drafted before the previous group of three (Kendrick, Baez, and Wong). In this mock draft, Kendrick was taken 40 picks ahead of Walker, but Walker projects to be better in runs, HR, and RBI, with fewer steals and a very similar batting average.

The final second baseman taken by this point of the draft was Chase Utley (176^th–$6). After struggling with injuries for the previous four seasons, Utley played in 155 games last year. He will be 36 in 2015 and Steamer projects him to play in 136 games. He is projected to have similar value as Daniel Murphy, who was taken 53 spots ahead of Utley. Here are their 2015 Steamer projections:

572 AB, 67 R, 9 HR, 56 RBI, 11 SB, .277 AVG—Daniel Murphy (123^rd pick–$8)

544 AB, 65 R, 14 HR, 62 RBI, 7 SB, .258 AVG—Chase Utley (176^th pick–$6)

If you believe in these projections, there really is no reason to take Murphy in the 11^th round if you can get Utley in the 15^th. Let’s look at their three-year averages:

608 AB, 78 R, 9 HR, 67 RBI, 15 SB, .288 AVG—Daniel Murphy

455 AB, 65 R, 13 HR, 64 RBI, 10 SB, .272 AVG—Chase Utley

Here, you can make an argument for taking Murphy well ahead of Utley, with their respective ages (30 for Murphy, 36 for Utley) adding to that argument.

Final notes: Robinson Cano and Jose Altuve are the top tier guys. In this draft, Kipnis was next off the board, but I would have had Kinsler on a tier of his own, with Kipnis dropping down to a tier including Dee Gordon, Brian Dozier, and Dustin Pedroia, with arguments for Ben Zobrist, Neil Walker, Dan Murphy, and perhaps Howie Kendrick being in the mix. Javier Baez and Kolten Wong are there for owners who like to gamble a bit, with Utley left over for those who miss out on the rest and believe he can stay healthy enough to contribute in 2015.