Analyzing the FanGraphs’ Mock Draft from an Outsider’s Point of View — C

As an avid reader of FanGraphs, I’ve been following the ongoing mock draft and thought it would be interesting to compare the results to the dollar value rankings I created using Steamer’s 2015 projections.

I downloaded the draft spreadsheet partway through the 16^th round, just after pick 183 (Chase Headley). Here is a breakdown, position-by-position. I’ve included the overall pick and the dollar value for that player based on 2015 Steamer projections in parentheses.

UPDATE: I downloaded the chat spreadsheet and the following commentary is up through the middle of the 21^st round, pick #249 (Rick Porcello).

Catcher

The top of the catcher rankings consists of one guy: Buster Posey (35^th–$29). Not only is Posey a great hitter; he also gets more playing time than most catchers because he can play first base when he’s not behind the dish. In this mock draft, Posey was taken late in the third round, ahead of such players as Jason Kipnis, Stephen Strasburg, Hunter Pence, Yu Darvish, Ian Kinsler, and David Price. The next catcher off the board came five rounds later. Based on this mock and Steamer projection-based dollar values, Posey is on a tier of his own.

The 8^th round saw two more catchers get drafted. Jonathan Lucroy (88^th–$5) and Yan Gomes (91^st–$7) were taken within three picks of each other. Steamer has Lucroy projected for 98 games and 424 plate appearances, which has to be considered far too low. Lucroy played in 147 games in 2013 and 153 in 2014 and it sounds like he’ll get time at first base against left-handed pitching this year. He really should be only below Posey in value, but his low playing time projection has him ranked 11^th among catchers by Steamer. Yan Gomes is also projected to get less playing time in 2015 than he did in 2014 and also figures to come up short of the 21 homers and 74 RBI that he produced last season.

Two more catchers were taken in the 12^th round. Brian McCann (133^rd–$18) is projected for similar counting stats as he had in 2014 but with a better batting average. Devin Mesoraco (137^th–$4) had a breakout 2014 season when he hit .273 with 25 homers and 80 RBI in 114 games. Steamer has him down for a .246 average, 18 homers, and 54 RBI in 102 games. He’s the #12 catcher according to these projections. Two rounds and 25 picks after Mesoraco was taken, Yadier Molina (162^nd–$1) went off the board. From 2009 to 2013, Molina averaged 138 games and 537 plate appearances per season (hitting .299/.356/.435). He’ll be 32 this season and was limited to 110 games last year because of an oblique injury. He’s expected to be fully healthy by spring training, but Steamer still has him projected for fewer games in 2015 than he had in his injury-shortened 2014 season.

There was a run on catchers in rounds 16 and 17. Evan Gattis (189^th–$20) got it started with the 189^th pick and three more catchers were taken among the next 13 choices: Travis d’Arnaud (193^rd–$8), Wilin Rosario (195^th—[-$1]), and Salvador Perez (202^nd–$9). Based on Steamer projections, Gattis is by far the most valuable among this group, and second to Posey overall among catchers, while Rosario looks like the worst value. Let’s look at their 2015 Steamer projections:

528 AB, 63 R, 26 HR, 77 RBI, 2 SB, .243 AVG—Evan Gattis (189^th–$20)

454 AB, 54 R, 17 HR, 61 RBI, 2 SB, .251 AVG—Travis d’Arnaud (193^rd–$8)

271 AB, 36 R, 14 HR, 43 RBI, 2 SB, .278 AVG—Wilin Rosario (195^th—[-$1])

449 AB, 52 R, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 1 SB, .274 AVG—Salvador Perez (202^nd–$9)

Here again, playing time is a major driving factor in the valuations. In his two seasons in the big leagues, Gattis has averaged 351 at-bats per season but is being projected for 528 AB by Steamer right now. Travis d’Arnaud had 385 at-bats last year and is projected for 454 this year, with better triple-slash numbers. Rosario is on the other side. He’s had three straight years with 382 or more at-bats but is projected for 271 at-bats in 2015. He still has the power numbers (.488 projected slugging percentage) and a solid batting average (.278), but the playing time is short. Similarly, Salvador Perez is coming off a season in which he played 150 games and had 578 at-bats. The previous year, he had 496 at-bats. In 2015, he’s projected for 449 at-bats.

In round 20, Russell Martin (236^th–$10) was taken, making him the 11^th catcher taken in this mock. Steamer has Martin projected for 434 at-bats with 16 homers and 59 RBI and he’s valued as the #4 catcher.

Final notes: With these assorted playing time questions, it’s difficult to judge the FanGraphs mock draft when it comes to the catcher position. Posey is clearly #1 and I think Lucroy is an easy #2. Beyond that, the rankings can change easily based on adjustments in projected playing time. A few guys that Steamer likes better than some already drafted are Matt Wieters, Wilson Ramos, and Stephen Vogt. In a 12-team league with one starting catcher, you could go for Posey or Lucroy or maybe even McCann. After that, just wait it out and see what’s still there late in the draft.