Analyzing the FanGraphs’ Mock Draft from an Outsider’s Point of View — SS

As an avid reader of FanGraphs, I’ve been following the ongoing mock draft and thought it would be interesting to compare the results to the dollar value rankings I created using Steamer’s 2015 projections.

I downloaded the draft spreadsheet partway through the 16^th round, just after pick 183 (Chase Headley). Here is a breakdown, position-by-position. I’ve included the overall pick and the dollar value for that player based on 2015 Steamer projections in parentheses.

Shortstop

Three shortstops were taken in the first two rounds of the FanGraphs Mock Draft: Troy Tulowitzki (11^th–$41), Ian Desmond (20^th–$18), and Hanley Ramirez (24^th–$34). Troy Tulowitzki always comes with the caveat “if healthy”. If healthy, Tulowitzki is the best shortstop in baseball. If healthy, Tulowitzki is a first round pick. If healthy, Tulowitzki can lead a fantasy team to a championship. The problem is, he hasn’t played more than 126 games since 2011. Over the last three years, he’s averaged 88 games played, but has hit .316/.399/.551 when he’s been healthy. In this mock draft, he was the first shortstop off the board, taken late in the first round. Steamer projects him for 523 at-bats and to be the most valuable shortstop by a good margin. The players taken immediately after Tulo in this mock were Carlos Gomez, Yasiel Puig, Anthony Rendon, Jose Altuve, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Adam Jones. If healthy, Tulo should deliver more value than any of them, but taking him there is a known risk.

The next two shortstops to be drafted were Ian Desmond and Hanley Ramirez, taken 20^th and 24^th, respectively. Here, Steamer much prefers Hanley ($34) over Desmond ($18), but that comes with 602 projected plate appearances for Hanley Ramirez, a number he hasn’t reached since 2012. He’s Troy Tulowitzki-lite, a good producer who has trouble staying healthy. He’s played in 86 and 128 games the last two years. Desmond, on the other hand, has back-to-back seasons with around 650 plate appearances in each. He’s also reached at least 20 homers and 20 steals in three consecutive seasons. It’s easy to see why someone would take Desmond ahead of Hanley despite the big dollar value difference projected by Steamer that favors Ramirez.

Two shortstops were drafted over rounds 5 and 6. Jose Reyes (50^th–$25) was taken early in the 5^th round, while Starlin Castro (70^th–$9) was taken late in the 6^th. Based on Steamer, there’s an argument that Reyes is as valuable as Desmond (2^nd round pick), but again, you have to trust that he’ll get the 640 plate appearances he’s projected for. Reyes has played 143 or more games in two of the last three seasons and he’s been productive, with an average of 79 runs scored and 28 steals per season from 2012 to 2014. Castro is seven years younger and likely to play in more games, but he doesn’t steal bases like he use to (just 10 steals over the last two seasons) and has a lower batting average and on-base percentage than Reyes over the last three seasons. Reyes could be moved to a tier above Castro. Or perhaps Castro should be moved down to the next group.

In the 9^th and 10^th rounds, Xander Bogaerts (103^rd–$7) and Alexei Ramirez (115^th–$12) were drafted. This is a spot where you could bypass Castro in the 6^th round and take Bogaerts or Ramirez in the 9^th or 10^th round. Look at their 2015 Steamer projections:

530 AB, 63 R, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 8 SB, .274 AVG—Starlin Castro (70^th–$9)

493 AB, 64 R, 15 HR 63 RBI, 5 SB, .256 AVG—Xander Bogaerts (103^rd–$7)

595 AB, 67 R, 11 HR, 63 RBI, 17 SB, .265 AVG—Alexei Ramirez (115^th–$12)

Ramirez is the oldest of the three (will be 33 in 2015), but has been better over the last few years than Castro and better than Bogaerts was last year, although Bogaerts will be just 22 in 2015, so his upside is considerable. With Castro no longer stealing bases like he once did, I would take Ramirez ahead of him. Castro and Bogaerts are comparable even though they were taken 33 picks apart.

The final three shortstops to be drafted as of the 16^th round were Alcides Escobar (150^th–$4), Elvis Andrus (159^th–$15), and Jimmy Rollins (170^th–$7). Here are their 2015 Steamer projections:

562 AB, 60 R, 5 HR, 50 RBI, 23 SB, .260 AVG—Alcides Escobar (150^th–$4)

599 AB, 76 R, 4 HR, 54 RBI, 28 SB, .269 AVG—Elvis Andrus (159^th–$15)

561 AB, 72 R, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 20 SB, .237 AVG—Jimmy Rollins (170^th–$7)

All three are projected to steal 20 or more bases and produce similar RBI, with Rollins hitting more homers with a worse batting average and Andrus and Rollins looking to score more runs than Escobar.

Another comparison would be their last three seasons (average production per season):

597 AB, 66 R, 4 HR, 51 RBI, 29 SB, .270 AVG—Alcides Escobar (will be 28)

623 AB, 83 R, 3 HR, 57 RBI, 30 SB, .274 AVG—Elvis Andrus (will be 26)

590 AB, 82 R, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 27 SB, .249 AVG—Jimmy Rollins (will be 36)

Andrus is the youngest and the best bet to play 150 or more games, which he’s done in each of the last four seasons. Rollins is older but can provide power and steals if you can take the hit in average. Escobar looks like the weakest link here.

Final notes: In this mock draft, there were three shortstops in the top tier: Tulowitzki, Desmond, and Hanley Ramirez. I would add Jose Reyes to this group. The next two shortstops drafted here were Starlin Castro and Xander Bogaerts, despite both being projected to be less valuable than Alexei Ramirez and Elvis Andrus. I would swap the groupings, putting Alexei and Elvis above Castro and Bogaerts, but I could see where someone could put all four in the same general area. Alcides Escobar and Jimmy Rollins are next and Jhonny Peralta (not yet drafted in the mock) would fit in with these two.