Re-examining Top NL Outfield Prospects of 2015

by
July 18, 2015

Earlier this year, Alex Chamberlain of FanGraphs took a look at the top NL outfield prospects for the 2015 season. On this list of five outfielders, three of them have had significant time in the big leagues: Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Randal Grichuk. They were ranked 1, 2, and 5 respectively prior to the season (Andrew Lambo and Eury Perez were ranked 3 and 4 but due to both playing less than 25 games, I did not include them in my analysis). The purpose of my writing today is to analyze these three outfielders and see if the preseason rankings has translated to the regular season. To understand if the rankings hold true, I will compare how each player has hit to this point in the season as well as their ability to help their team on defense.

Offensive Analysis

Using simply batting average as a definitive metric for determining which player is succeeding is especially tough considering the snapshot is only the first half of the 2015 season. That being said I think it is important to look at simple batting average to see if there is any outliers when comparing it to BABIP. In terms of batting average, Randal Grichuk is leading the way with a .277 average, followed by Soler and Pederson at .260 and .230 respectively. While this is a good baseline, comparing it to BABIP and % of hard hit balls identify if these averages are sustainable or unsustainable over the course of a season.

Pederson has a BABIP below the league average at .282, while Soler and Grichuk have BABIP almost 80 points higher than the league average. One of the factors that could be contributing to Pederson’s significantly lower average is simply being unlucky. In terms of Hard Hit%, Pederson is tops of the three with 41.5% of the balls he makes contact with being classified as hard hit. Soler and Grichuk have a 38.6% and 39.2% Hard Hit%. Another factor to consider is K%, but this is somewhat of a moot point considering that each outfielder has a K% within one point of 30%, nearly 12% above league average. This is to be expected of young players who are adjusting to big-league pitching and have a large amount of raw power. These percentages indicate that Pederson’s average should not be nearly as low as compared to the other two and would be considered an outlier and his .230 average is not indicative of how he is hitting overall. But it stands to reason that both Soler and Grichuk could see a regression in average if their BABIP falls towards league average.

Another factor that is important to look at when ranking these three budding All-Stars is their raw power. Hitting for average is important but in today’s game it is much harder to string together multiple hits, so being able to drive the ball in gaps or over the walls is a premium quality in a young player. Isolated Power is a great metric to look at when evaluating the raw power a player is displaying because it takes out the batting average variable out of Slugging %. Grichuk and Pederson have the exact same ISO at .257 while Soler’s is much lower at .128, just below the league average of .135. What this metric means is that Soler’s actual slugging% is somewhat inflated by his average. If his average falls, which would be due to a decline BABIP, his slugging% will suffer. It seems that even if Grichuk’s BABIP slumps he will continue to make an impact at the plate in terms of slugging% since his ISO is over 120 points higher than Soler.

To wrap up the offensive portion of my analysis, I would rank the three rookie outfielders 1) Pederson. This is based on the fact he has made a huge impact on the Dodger’s lineup (20 HR, 40 RBIs) although he has been hampered by an unlucky BABIP.  2) Grichuk. Due to the higher ISO than Soler against major league pitching. Grichuk has not only produced more this year than Soler but he projects to continue to have an impact on his team through his higher ISO even if his batting average drops. 3) Soler, is ranked third because the high BABIP and lower ISO make him less appealing throughout the course of the long MLB season.

Average BABIP Hard% ISO K%
Pederson 0.230 0.282 41.5 0.257 29.2
Grichuk 0.277 0.374 39.2 0.257 30.4
Soler 0.260 0.376 28.6 0.128 31.8
League Avg. 0.256 0.296 0.135 17.9

 

 

Defensive Analysis

Defensive metrics also help determine which outfielder is helping save runs for their team which in turn improves the chance of winning a ball game. Revised Zone Rating or RZR is a good indicator of how well a player has been able to make plays in their fielding zone. In terms of RZR, Grichuk is the low man on the totem pole with .902 RZR. Pederson is tops in the group with .926 and Soler in the middle with .916. While RZR is a helpful stat it does not tell the full story of which outfielder is saving the most runs for his team.

DRS or the total defensive run saved helps give an idea of how many runs a fielder has saved above the average player. In terms of DRS, Grichuk has saved 6 runs above average even though he had the lowest RZR. Whereas Pederson has saved 1 run and Soler has saved 0 runs even though both have more outfield assist with than Grichuk (4 each vs. 1). Soler’s low DRS can be attributed to the fact on balls where Soler has between a 60-90% chance of making a play, he has only made the play 66.7% of the time compared to Grichuk and Pederson who have made those same plays 100% of the time.

In terms of defense, I would rank Grichuk number one due to his high DRS. Since saving runs is vital to a team’s success. Pederson would rank second and Soler would be third.

 

 DRS RZR Assist
Pederson 1 0.926 4
Grichuk 6 0.902 1
Soler 0 0.916 4

 

 

Conclusion

To wrap up my analysis, I think it is important to look at total WAR when evaluating players. Especially when breaking down these three young outfielders. I think it is clear that to this point in their 2015 seasons, Jorge Soler would be ranked third of the three due to the fact that his WAR is only .4 and he lags Grichuk and Pederson in almost every metric I have discussed. Grichuk’s WAR of 1.9 places him second. Even though he saves more runs than Pederson with his glove, the offensive impact Pederson has made even with his .230 batting average is extremely impressive. With 20 home runs at the All-Star break and a WAR of 3.3 Pederson would have to be ranked as still the top NL rookie outfielder that was ranked in the preseason.

 

WAR
Pederson 3.3
Grichuk 1.9
Soler 0.4

 

All stats for this article were taken from FanGraphs.com





 

Westminster College, Class of 2016, Division 3 Third baseman

12 Comments
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Only Glove, No Love
8 years ago

Nice article. I think BA/con would be a better metric than BABIP. I don’t think what you are after is “what happens when they put the ball in play but don’t hit a HR”…

BAcon for Pederson = .358

BAcon for Grichuk = .407

BAcon for Soler = .391

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vonstott
8 years ago
Reply to  Only Glove, No Love

I think BABIP is going to stay the standard is that it is generally used as a “luck filter”. You want to see if a guys numbers are good because everything is falling in or if they stink because everything is at somebody. Including home runs would make a guy hitting a bunch of bombs look lucky, and we are probably better off not drawing that conclusion.

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Brent Henry
8 years ago

Another Tyler Branneky Cardinals puff piece

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Paul
8 years ago

You shouldn’t ignore the batted ball profiles when trying to determine if a player’s babip is lucky or not. Pederson is an extreme pull hitter (44.9 Pull%/36.7 Cent%/18.4 Oppo%) with a low LD% (17.5%) and a high FB% (40.7%) and many of his flyballs are of the infield variety (10.1 IFFB%). Compare that to someone like Soler: 36.5 Pull%/42.6 Cent%/21 Oppo%, 29.1 LD%, 28.4 FB%, 9.5 IFFB%.

Soler should have a much higher babip than Pederson. His .375 babip will regress of course, but it should still be well above average. I don’t see any reason to expect Pederson’s babip to increase unless he changes his batted ball profile.

Grichuk is easily the worst of the three. His batted ball profile looks just as bad as Pederson’s, maybe worse. His babip is due for huge regression, and I’m not confident at all that he can be a starter long-term.

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Tyler Branneky
8 years ago
Reply to  Paul

Paul, you make a good point in regards to batted ball profile. I appreciate the comment, and that will be something I’ll consider next time I write.

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Nick
8 years ago
Reply to  Tyler Branneky

There was a recent fangraphs piece showing that hard hit % has virtually no correlation whatsoever with BABIP (r^2 of .02, IIRC). Batted ball profile and spray chart have far more to do with it

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cuvamc
8 years ago

Great article. Really liked the analysis, I happen to agree with Pederson being the best. His swing is a little long for me, but he’s still young. What made you use RZR as opposed to other defensive metrics? I’m always interested to hear people’s thoughts on that; there are so many different things out there to look at that it’s kind of a matter of personal preference at times I feel like.

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Tyler Branneky
8 years ago
Reply to  cuvamc

Agreed, there isn’t a shortage of defensive metrics to look at. I could have looked at UZR but since I already looked at DRS which is fairly similar, I felt as that looking at a metric that showcased just range and ability to convert possible plays was fitting.

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Lanidrac
8 years ago

Interesting analysis, although did you remember that Grichuk is naturally at a disadvantage in counting stats such as outfield assists and WAR due to having begun the season as a bench player? He’s now the starting center fielder if/until Jay can come back and prove he has a fully healthy wrist (probably not until next year, at which point Grichuk may just slide over to RF), so playing time is probably not an issue going forward.

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Tyler Branneky
8 years ago
Reply to  Lanidrac

Unfortunately, the difference in innings and ABs between Pederson (700+) and Soler (about 500) and Grichuk (about 450) made the overall analysis a little tougher, perhaps if all had the similar number of innings my conclusion would be different. It will be interesting to see how the counting stats compare up at the end of the season if Grichuk and Soler continue to start for their teams

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Jordan C
8 years ago

Good Stuff, Grichuck’s walk and K rates are pretty poor and are going to have to improve when that BABIP starts to regress to a normal level, which will also lower his ISO (although he has a track record in the minors and now the bigs of plus power). But so far he has been the second best of that group. Though moving forward I still believe that most teams would rather have Soler and Pederson by a pretty wide margin, even given the fantastic player development system in St. Louis. Soler’s minor league WRC+’s are outstanding while Grichuk’s are simply good, and most scouts have always graded Soler ahead of Grichuk. Now of course prospects are dice rolls, and scouts aren’t always right in their evaluations (which is of course why sabermetrics are important) but I am interested to see if you would rather have Grichuk moving forward beyond just this season or Soler.

Wheat Barley

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Tyler Branneky
8 years ago
Reply to  Jordan C

Jordan, like you said prospect are a roll of the dice and its incredibly difficult to project their careers from just the small snapshot at the Major league level. That being said, I think Soler has the potential to be a superstar in the league over the long term (if he can cut strikeouts, but his increased LD% this year and higher % of balls hit to center this year may be a sign of his progression as a hitter). Grichuk I think will be a solid outfield option but I’m not sure if he’ll reach an elite level like Soler could. Also, both are not eligible for free agency till 2021, so all things considered I will take the higher ceiling prospect in Soler.

“Dieu et les Dames”

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