Pitch Win Values for Starting Pitchers — August 2014

by
September 8, 2014

Introduction

A couple months back, I introduced a new method of calculating pitch values using a FIP-based WAR methodology.  That post details the basic framework of these calculations and  can be found here .  The May, June, and July updates can be found here,  here, and here respectively.  This post is simply the August 2014 update of the same data.  What follows is predominantly data-heavy but should still provide useful talking points for discussion.  Let’s dive in and see what we can find.  Please note that the same caveats apply as previous months.  We’re at the mercy of pitch classification.  I’m sure your favorite pitcher doesn’t throw that pitch that has been rated as incredibly below average, but we have to go off of the data that is available.  Also, Baseball Prospectus’s PitchF/x leaderboards list only nine pitches (Four-Seam Fastball, Sinker, Cutter, Splitter, Curveball, Slider, Changeup, Screwball, and Knuckleball).  Anything that may be classified outside of these categories is not included.  Also, anything classified as a “slow curve” is not included in Baseball Prospectus’s curveball data.

Constants

Before we begin, we must first update the constants used in calculation for August.  As a refresher, we need three different constants for calculation: strikes per strikeout, balls per walk, and a FIP constant to bring the values onto the right scale.  We will tackle them each individually.

First, let’s discuss the strikeout constant.  In August, there were 52,238 strikes thrown by starting pitchers.  Of these 52,238 strikes, 4,887 were turned into hits and 15,293 outs were recorded.  Of these 15,293 outs, 4,118 were converted via the strikeout, leaving us with 11,175 ball-in-play outs.  11,175 ball-in-play strikes and 4,887 hits sum to 16,062 balls-in-play.  Subtracting 16,062 balls-in-play from our original 52,238 strikes leaves us with 36,176 strikes to distribute over our 4,118 strikeouts.  That’s a ratio of 8.78 strikes per strikeout.  This is slightly lower than our from 8.82 strikes per strikeout in June and July, meaning batters were slightly easier to strikeout in August.

The next two constants are much easier to ascertain.  In August, there were 28,957 balls thrown by starters and 1,521 walked batters.  That’s a ratio of 19.04 balls per walk, down from 19.76 balls per walk in August.  This data would suggest that hitters were more likely to walk in August than previously.  The FIP subtotal for all pitches in August was 0.48.  The MLB Run Average for August was 4.12, meaning our FIP constant for  is 3.65.

Constant Value
Strikes/K 8.78
Balls/BB 19.04
cFIP 3.65

The following table details how the constants have changed month-to-month.

Month K BB cFIP
March/April 8.47 18.50 3.68
May 8.88 18.77 3.58
June 8.82 19.36 3.59
July 8.82 19.76 3.65
August 8.78 19.04 3.65

Pitch Values – August 2014

For reference, the following table details the FIP for each pitch type in the month of August.

Pitch FIP
Four-Seam 4.03
Sinker 4.17
Cutter 4.14
Splitter 4.48
Curveball 4.21
Slider 4.15
Changeup 4.47
Screwball 2.22
Knuckleball 4.56
MLB RA 4.12

As we can see, only two pitches would be classified as above average for the month of August: four-seam fastballs and screwballs.  Sinkers, cutters, and sliders also came in right around league average.  Pitchers that were able to stand out in other categories tended to have better overall months than pitchers who excelled at the these pitches.  Now, let’s proceed to the data for the month of August.

Four-Seam Fastball

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Chris Tillman 0.7 183 Sean O’Sullivan -0.2
2 Jose Quintana 0.6 184 John Danks -0.2
3 Phil Hughes 0.6 185 Anthony Ranaudo -0.3
4 Max Scherzer 0.6 186 Jason Hammel -0.3
5 Madison Bumgarner 0.5 187 Stephen Strasburg -0.4

Sinker

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Mike Leake 0.5 169 Shelby Miller -0.2
2 Rick Porcello 0.4 170 Travis Wood -0.2
3 Kyle Hendricks 0.4 171 Mat Latos -0.3
4 Dallas Keuchel 0.3 172 Tsuyoshi Wada -0.3
5 Jimmy Nelson 0.3 173 Kyle Kendrick -0.3

Cutter

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Jarred Cosart 0.6 74 Scott Carroll -0.1
2 Josh Collmenter 0.4 75 Jorge de la Rosa -0.1
3 Corey Kluber 0.3 76 J.A. Happ -0.1
4 James Shields 0.3 77 Kevin Correia -0.2
5 Jerome Williams 0.2 78 Dan Haren -0.2

Splitter

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Alex Cobb 0.4 26 Miguel Gonzalez -0.1
2 Mat Latos 0.2 27 Hisashi Iwakuma -0.1
3 Alfredo Simon 0.1 28 Felix Hernandez -0.1
4 Hiroki Kuroda 0.1 29 Jorge de la Rosa -0.1
5 Kyle Kendrick 0.1 30 Tim Hudson -0.2

Curveball

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Alex Wood 0.3 157 James Shields -0.2
2 Brandon McCarthy 0.3 158 Jesse Hahn -0.2
3 Adam Wainwright 0.3 159 Max Scherzer -0.2
4 Clay Buchholz 0.2 160 Zack Greinke -0.3
5 Scott Feldman 0.2 161 Nick Martinez -0.3

Slider

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Clayton Kershaw 0.4 123 Dallas Keuchel -0.2
2 Chris Archer 0.3 124 Scott Baker -0.2
3 Tyler Matzek 0.3 125 Rubby de la Rosa -0.2
4 Collin McHugh 0.3 126 Bartolo Colon -0.2
5 Kyle Gibson 0.2 127 Rafael Montero -0.2

Changeup

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Chris Capuano 0.4 154 Jon Niese -0.2
2 Jeremy Guthrie 0.3 155 Henderson Alvarez -0.2
3 Roberto Hernandez 0.2 156 Zack Greinke -0.2
4 David Price 0.2 157 Brad Peacock -0.3
5 Max Scherzer 0.2 158 Brad Hand -0.4

Screwball

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Trevor Bauer 0.0

Knuckleball

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 R.A. Dickey 0.1

Overall

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Alex Cobb 0.9 186 Jason Hammel -0.2
2 Jordan Zimmermann 0.8 187 Justin Masterson -0.2
3 Corey Kluber 0.8 188 Sean O’Sullivan -0.3
4 Jarred Cosart 0.8 189 Kyle Lohse -0.4
5 Collin McHugh 0.8 190 Brad Hand -0.4

Pitch Ratings – August 2014

Four-Seam Fastball

Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating
1 Jose Quintana 59 87 Vance Worley 39
2 Brad Peacock 59 88 Stephen Strasburg 37
3 Michael Pineda 59 89 Justin Masterson 36
4 Phil Hughes 58 90 Anthony Ranaudo 35
5 Franklin Morales 58 91 John Danks 35

Sinker

Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating
1 Rick Porcello 58 68 Travis Wood 37
2 Jake Arrieta 58 69 Kyle Kendrick 36
3 Gio Gonzalez 57 70 John Lackey 35
4 J.A. Happ 57 71 Mat Latos 35
5 Marcus Stroman 57 72 Tsuyoshi Wada 33

Cutter

Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating
1 Franklin Morales 58 27 Brandon McCarthy 43
2 Corey Kluber 58 28 Jake Peavy 40
3 James Shields 58 29 Ryan Vogelsong 39
4 Jerome Williams 57 30 Dan Haren 38
5 Tim Hudson 56 31 Kevin Correia 33

Splitter

Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating
1 Mat Latos 58 7 Matt Shoemaker 50
2 Alex Cobb 56 8 Jake Odorizzi 49
3 Kyle Kendrick 55 9 Jorge de la Rosa 45
4 Tsuyoshi Wada 54 10 Kevin Gausman 42
5 Alfredo Simon 54 11 Hisashi Iwakuma 41

Curveball

Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating
1 Felix Hernandez 60 66 Dillon Gee 37
2 Brandon McCarthy 58 67 Scott Carroll 37
3 Jacob deGrom 58 68 James Shields 33
4 Brandon Workman 57 69 Jesse Hahn 24
5 Jeremy Hellickson 57 70 Max Scherzer 22

Slider

Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating
1 Max Scherzer 59 54 Tanner Roark 40
2 Wei-Yin Chen 59 55 Kyle Lohse 38
3 Jordan Zimmermann 59 56 Vance Worley 37
4 Corey Kluber 59 57 Dallas Keuchel 35
5 Tyler Matzek 58 58 Tim Lincecum 27

Changeup

Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating
1 Chris Capuano 58 59 Wade Miley 38
2 Roberto Hernandez 58 60 Robbie Ray 36
3 Allen Webster 57 61 Trevor May 32
4 Yohan Flande 57 62 Zack Greinke 28
5 Jeremy Guthrie 57 63 Jon Niese 28

Screwball

Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating
1 Trevor Bauer 59

Knuckleball

Rank Pitcher Pitch Rating
1 R.A. Dickey 49

Monthly Discussion

As we can see, Alex Cobb takes the top for this month mainly due to the  strength of his sinker and splitter.  Cobb was classified as throwing four different pitches in August (Four-Seam, Sinker, Splitter, and Curveball) and managed to earn at least 0.1 WAR from all four.  The most valuable pitch overall in August was Chris Tillman’s Four-Seam Fastball.  The least valuable was Stephen Strasburg’s Four-Seam Fastball.  As far as offspeed pitches, Chris Capuano’s 0.4 WAR from his changeup lead the way.  The least valuable offspeed pitch was Brad Hand’s slider.

On our 20-80 scale pitch ratings, the highest rated qualifying pitch was Felix Hernandez’s curveball.  The lowest rated pitch was the curveball thrown by Max Scherzer.  The highest rated fastball was Jose Quintana’s four-seam fastball.  The lowest rated fastball was Tsuyoshi Wada’s sinker.

Pitch Values – 2014 Season

Four-Seam Fastball

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Jose Quintana 2.4 262 Dan Straily -0.3
2 Ian Kennedy 2.4 263 Edwin Jackson -0.3
3 Phil Hughes 2.2 264 Masahiro Tanaka -0.4
4 Jordan Zimmermann 2.1 265 Juan Nicasio -0.4
5 Chris Tillman 1.9 266 Marco Estrada -0.7

Sinker

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Charlie Morton 1.7 251 Mike Pelfrey -0.3
2 Dallas Keuchel 1.4 252 Dan Straily -0.3
3 Chris Archer 1.3 253 John Danks -0.3
4 Mike Leake 1.3 254 Wandy Rodriguez -0.3
5 Felix Hernandez 1.2 255 Andrew Heaney -0.4

Cutter

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Jarred Cosart 1.8 118 Felipe Paulino -0.2
2 Corey Kluber 1.5 119 C.J. Wilson -0.3
3 Madison Bumgarner 1.4 120 Dan Haren -0.3
4 Josh Collmenter 1.4 121 Hector Noesi -0.4
5 Adam Wainwright 1.3 122 Brandon McCarthy -0.6

Splitter

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Alex Cobb 1.0 35 Jake Peavy -0.1
2 Masahiro Tanaka 0.8 36 Franklin Morales -0.2
3 Hiroki Kuroda 0.7 37 Danny Salazar -0.2
4 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.5 38 Miguel Gonzalez -0.3
5 Kyle Kendrick 0.4 39 Clay Buchholz -0.3

Curveball

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Sonny Gray 1.1 225 Homer Bailey -0.2
2 A.J. Burnett 1.1 226 Josh Collmenter -0.2
3 Brandon McCarthy 1.0 227 Franklin Morales -0.3
4 Adam Wainwright 1.0 228 Felipe Paulino -0.3
5 Felix Hernandez 0.8 229 Eric Stults -0.5

Slider

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Garrett Richards 1.5 192 Liam Hendriks -0.2
2 Tyson Ross 1.2 193 Rafael Montero -0.3
3 Chris Archer 1.0 194 Danny Salazar -0.3
4 Corey Kluber 1.0 195 Erasmo Ramirez -0.4
5 Jordan Zimmermann 1.0 196 Travis Wood -0.5

Changeup

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Felix Hernandez 0.8 245 Wandy Rodriguez -0.4
2 Stephen Strasburg 0.8 246 Jordan Zimmermann -0.4
3 Roberto Hernandez 0.7 247 Matt Cain -0.4
4 Cole Hamels 0.7 248 Marco Estrada -0.6
5 Chris Sale 0.6 249 Drew Hutchison -0.7

Screwball

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Trevor Bauer 0.1
2 Alfredo Simon 0.0
3 Hector Santiago 0.0
4 Julio Teheran 0.0

Knuckleball

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 R.A. Dickey 1.3
2 C.J. Wilson 0.0

Overall

Rank Pitcher Pitch Value Rank Pitcher Pitch Value
1 Corey Kluber 3.7 270 David Holmberg -0.4
2 Adam Wainwright 3.6 271 Felipe Paulino -0.5
3 Garrett Richards 3.5 272 Juan Nicasio -0.5
4 Jose Quintana 3.4 273 Wandy Rodriguez -0.8
5 Felix Hernandez 3.3 274 Marco Estrada -1.2

Year-to-Date Discussion

If we look at the year-to-date numbers, Indians ace and Cistulli favorite Corey Kluber has claimed the top spot.  Current MLB FIP and WAR leader Clayton Kershaw ranks eighth, with every pitcher ranked above him having made at least three more starts.  The least valuable starter has been Marco Estrada.  On a per-pitch basis, the most valuable pitch has been Jose Quintana’s four-seam fastball.  The most valuable offspeed pitch has been Garrett Richards’s slider.  The least valuable pitch has been Marco Estrada’s four-seam fastball.  The least value offspeed pitch has been Drew Hutchison’s changeup.





 

Stats All Folks is a frustrated former Little League pitcher that knows if he could have only been taller, stronger, more athletic with more velocity on his fastball, better offspeed stuff, and improved control, he could have been the first overall pick in the MLB First-Year Player Draft. Alas, it was not in the cards for him.

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