Paul Goldschmidt is Hitting Homers at Home Again

What a boring headline in any other season. “One of game’s top players does good thing at plate” isn’t intriguing in nearly any context. But there’s so much to consider here. 

The D-backs started the 2018 season off gangbusters, winning nine series in a row and going 20-8 through April. They held at least a five and a half game lead on the rest of their division. And that was without Jake Lamb for most of the time, or Steven Souza, and Paul Goldschmidt off to an utterly pedestrian start. But the team was winning.

Then May happened.The injuries kept coming: Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, AJ Pollock, Randall Delgado, and Steven Souza (again) all hit the DL. Goldschmidt went from pedestrian to abysmal; his batting average was flirting with the Mendoza line, he was piling up Ks, and he couldn’t make contact in the zone. Arizona finished the month at 28-27, a game and a half back of the Rockies.

And that’s just the team. The humidor installed at Chase Field in the offseason has been another beast all on its own. The data that’s available on its impact to this point isn’t necessarily reliable yet because the sample size is still relatively small. It sure seems to have made a pronounced — if not definitive — impression, though. Offense is down in the desert by about 20% across the board. Add that into the mix with a team that was probably playing over its head, and then sinking, and suddenly the waters are much choppier.

Some wondered if the humidor’s presence had snuck into the back of Goldschmidt’s mind and taken up residence. Every additional out he made seemed to sell the idea. He was pushing a 200 strikeout pace. There were at-bats where he simply looked lost, and it was fair to wonder whether he’d been occupied by a Pod Person.

But he started showing signs of hope: a couple multi-hit games, a couple extra base knocks. Even if those things happened on the road, every little bit helps for a player struggling as badly as Goldschmidt was. And then, on May 30, he did something he hadn’t done even once in 2018. He homered at home. He hit a long, humpback line drive down the right field line off Sal Romano that cleared the fence. Take a look.

Do you notice Goldschmidt’s face? It’s almost like he couldn’t believe the ball finally went out. The relief was palpable.

He’s never taken more than six games to homer at Chase Field in any season. This year it took him 27. I’m not always a fan of referencing exit velo, but it’s relevant here. Just last year, pre-humidor, he hit a homer on April 23 at Chase that came off the bat at 97.3 mph and went 390 feet. His cue shot down the line for his first homer at home this season came off the bat at 102.1 mph and traveled 349 feet. 

And then just three days and three more games after that, Goldschmidt homered again on June 2. This time, it was a towering shot down the left field line that went 431 feet and left the bat at 109.9 mph. I’ve told you both of his dingers at home this year were down the line, making them extreme. Peeking at his career home run spray chart at Chase give us a sense of just how severe they really were.

The black boxes indicate Goldschmidt’s two homers at home so far entering last week. You’ll note that the one down the left field line doesn’t actually surround a red dot indicating a home run — that’s because Baseball Savant hasn’t yet updated Goldschmidt’s most recent shot. For reference, the dot immediately above the empty box traveled 438 feet. 

You may also note that both shots this year easily push the bounds of literally every other home run Goldschmidt has ever hit at Chase Field in his entire career. Maybe, just maybe, the humidor had taken residence in the back of Goldschmidt’s mind. Just look at that green circle in left-center, the one he hit at barely 97 mph. Imagine being able to flick that pitch nearly 400 feet on a regular basis, then clobber one this season at 102 and have it barely clear the shortest fence in the yard, and only after enduring 26 dinger-less games. 

Goldschmidt can go to any part of the field on any pitch. You probably wouldn’t expect him to get spooked by what essentially amounts to air conditioned baseballs. But if the humidor did punch a hole in his game, he may have found a way to patch it by opting to work the foul lines to get the fairest results.

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Game data from FanGraphs. Home run exit velocity and spray chart from Baseball Savant. Gif made with Giphy.