Changes in WAR from 2000 to 2014 (Part 4)

If you haven’t read Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3, you may want to go back and check them out.

After looking in-depth at 2014 WAR, I thought it would be interesting to compare 2014 WAR with WAR totals from 2002. Baseball scoring has dropped considerably since 2002 and I wondered how this would be reflected in WAR, either at the positional level or the age level or both.

Here is a comparison of hitting statistics from 2002 and 2014:

YEAR	R/G	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ISO	BABIP	BB%	K%
2002	4.62	.261	.331	.417	.326	.155	.293	8.7%	16.8%
2014	4.07	.251	.314	.386	.310	.135	.299	7.6%	20.4%

Twelve years ago, hitters put up a higher batting averages, on-base percentages, slugging percentages, and isolated slugging. They walked more and struck out less.

But,we pretty much knew this. Did this difference in the level of offense affect the WAR accumulated at each position?

Position Players

The following table shows WAR for each position with 2002 on top and 2014 below.

If we look at the comparison of WAR/600 PA for the premium hitting positions (DH, 1B, RF, LF, 3B), we see that all except third base accumulated more WAR in 2002 than in 2014. On the other end of the fielding spectrum, the key defensive positions (C, SS, 2B, CF) all had more WAR in 2014, when offense was down.

This table shows a comparison of the traditionally offense-oriented positions versus the positions historically known more for their glove work in the two different run-scoring environments of 2002 (4.62 R/G) and 2014 (4.07 R/G).

In 2002, the offense-oriented positions averaged 2.2 WAR/600PA. In 2014, these positions average 1.8 WAR/600 PA. The more defensive-oriented positions averaged 1.9 WAR/600 PA in the higher run-scoring environment and 2.4 WAR/600 PA when runs were more scarce.

This shift of WAR from more hitter-heavy positions to the better fielding positions has been a general trend over the last thirteen years, particularly so in the last four years as run scoring has dropped significantly.

Consider the table below. The column to the far right shows the difference between WAR for the hitting positions and fielding positions each year:

The biggest change has been over the last four years, as run scoring has dropped down below 4.3 runs per game after being in the range of 4.6 to 4.8 runs/game in the 2000s. Teams are getting more WAR/600 PA from the defensive-oriented positions than the bat-first positions. The 2014 season saw the biggest gap in the last thirteen years, with glove-first positions averaging 0.6 more WAR/600 PA than the bat-first positions.

Changing distribution of playing time and WAR based on age

Along with the change in WAR for the hitting positions versus the defense-oriented positions, there has been a shift in WAR and playing time based on age. From 2000 to 2005, position players 33 and older had more plate appearances than players 25 and under. Beginning in 2006, position players 25 and under have had more plate appearances each year than players 33 and older. Since 2010, this difference has accelerated, as the graph below shows:

In 2000, players 33 and older had 40,626 plate appearances and players 25 and under had 38,919. Last year, players 33 and older had dropped to 29,191 plate appearances and players 25 and under were up to 45,439 plate appearances.

Plate Appearances by Age Group
Year	25 & under	33 & older
2000	38,919	40,626
2014	45,439	29,191
Difference	6,520	-11,435

With increasing playing time, players 25 and under have seen their total WAR go up, while WAR for players 33 and older has gone down:

The difference in WAR is not just a playing time difference, though. Older players have not only seen less playing time, they’ve also been less productive, as this graph of WAR/600 PA demonstrates:

In 2000, players 33 and older averaged 1.7 WAR/600 PA, while players 25 and under averaged 1.4 WAR/600 PA. The older group of players maintained their lead until 2003, when the two groups were essentially even. Since then, younger players have out-produced older players. Last year, the gap was 0.5 WAR/600 PA in favor of the younger group of players.

Starting Pitchers

For starting pitchers, there are some differences. Innings pitched by starting pitchers 25 and under have fluctuated quite a bit over the last 15 years. Since 2000, starting pitchers age 25 and under have thrown a high of 10,268 innings (2002) and a low of 6,663 innings (2005). Starting pitchers 33 and older have a narrower range of innings pitched per season, with a very slightly downward trend over the last thirteen years, as shown by this graph:

While their innings pitched has been fairly consistent since 2000, starting pitchers 33 and older have been less productive. The following graph shows the WAR/150 innings pitched for starting pitchers 25 and under compared to those 33 and older. The “33 and older” group has dropped from a high of 2.5 WAR/150 IP in 2000 to a low of 1.2 WAR/150 IP last season.

From 2000 to 2007, pitchers 33 and older were more productive per inning than pitchers 25 and under. Since then, young pitchers have been more productive, except for that 2012 season. The gulf has widened between these two groups over the last two years.

Relief Pitchers

Finally, let’s look at relief pitchers. Since 2000, relief pitchers 33 and older have seen their innings pitch per year rise from around 3,000 in 2000 to a high of 3,951 in 2005, but have steadily dropped since then. In 2014, they pitched a 15-year low of 2,063 innings. Relief pitchers 25 and under saw a sharp increase in innings pitched from 2004 to 2006, and have bounced around a bit since then, but have generally seen a drop in the amount of innings they’ve pitched since then.

When it comes to production, older relief pitchers have followed a different pattern than their counterparts. Position players and starting pitchers 33 and older have seen their production drop (using WAR per playing time), while relief pitchers 33 and over have held steady. Older relievers are pitching fewer innings each year but they are still as productive (and have a slight increase in WAR/50 IP over the last 15 years).

Final Thoughts

Baseball has evolved over the last 15 years from a high-offense, slugging game to a low-offense, pitching-and-defense game and WAR reflects those changes. The offense-oriented positions (1B, RF, LF, 3B) used to accumulate more WAR each season, but no longer do so. Older players were once more likely to sustain their production into their mid-30s, but no longer play as much or as well as they once did at an advanced age.

Looking to the future, we have to wonder what’s to come. Will offense continue to drop or has it bottomed-out and now due for a rebound? Will MLB do something to raise the level offense (adjust the strike zone, perhaps?)? If offense makes a comeback, how will that be reflected by WAR?