This is a list of the top five organizations in baseball. The teams and order were determined by the organization’s overall success and how economically they got there.

1) St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are easily the best organization in baseball. They are a model of consistency, as they have made 10 playoff appearances since 2000, including four World Series appearances and two World Series Championships. The Cardinals have been able to have such prolonged success due to their ability to develop their own talent. They have never been constrained by a large contract eating up too much of their salary, and even let Albert Pujols walk rather than commit too much money to one player. 2013 was an excellent example of this club’s ability to develop its own talent, especially pitchers. In 2013, the Redbirds turned to 12 rookie pitchers, who threw a combined 553 2/3 innings with a 3.17 ERA. The organization’s commitment to build through the draft, rather than Free Agency, has contributed to its sustained success and ranking as the top organization in baseball.

2) Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have appeared in the Postseason seven times since 2000. More importantly, they have reached the World Series three times in that span, culminating in three World Series Championships. While the Red Sox have quite a financial advantage over other organizations, the Red Sox have still built up their core through the draft. They have developed their own stars, like Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz. The Red Sox farm system is still stocked with talent, including Xander Bogaerts, Henry Owens and Allen Webster. Like the Cardinals, the Red Sox are often able to fill holes with internal candidates, such as Jackie Bradley Jr. taking over for Jacoby Ellsbury. While the Red Sox have had their share of bad contracts, especially Carl Crawford’s 7-year, $142 Million deal, they are able to survive such poor decisions. In the case of Crawford, the Red Sox pulled off a miracle trade to the Dodgers to dump his salary and still acquire talent in return. As long as the Red Sox continue to focus on developing their own talent, they will hold their position as one of the top organizations in baseball.

3) Tampa Bay Rays

Ever since Stuart Sternberg took over as owner of the Rays in 2006, they have been one of the best-run organizations in baseball. Operating with one of the smallest payrolls in baseball, the Rays quickly turned it around under new ownership, as they reach the playoffs and World Series for the first time in the organization’s history in 2008. Since 2008, the Rays have had five seasons of at least 90 wins in six total seasons. Their success, despite being located in one of the smallest markets of any MLB team, can be attributed to their shrewd personnel decisions and reliance on young Major Leaguers under team control. The Rays have not drafted particularly well, since 2007 when they landed David Price and Matt Moore. Despite little success in recent drafts, the Rays have acquired young, controllable talent by trading veteran players, who were nearing Free Agency. The two best examples of this strategy are when the Rays traded Matt Garza to the Cubs and landed Chris Archer, among others, and when the Rays traded James Shields for Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi. Their ability to remain competitive, despite being located in one of the smallest markets in baseball, earns them the designation as one of the top organizations in baseball.

4) San Francisco Giants

The Giants are not exactly a model of consistency, as they’ve only made the Postseason five times since 2000, but they have reached the World Series three times in that span, including two Championships since 2010. The Giants have not made the Postseason in consecutive seasons since 2002-2003. However, despite their inconsistencies, the Giants should certainly be commended for their success in the amateur draft. Through the draft, they have built a strong core of talent, including Buster Posey, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Brandon Belt and Madison Bumgarner. They have also had a lot of success by acquiring many failed prospects, such as Ryan Vogelsong, Joaquin Arias and Angel Pagan. In order to remain among the top organizations in baseball, the Giants must continue to be successful through the draft and avoid bad contracts like the one they gave to Barry Zito.

5) Oakland Athletics

The A’s are best known as the first team to fully embrace advanced metrics, but also as an organization that has not had much success once it reaches the Postseason. Since 2000, the A’s have reached the Postseason seven times; yet have only reached the ALCS just once. After a five year period between 2007-2011, in which the A’s never reached the Postseason, the A’s have now reached the playoffs for two straight seasons. Much of their recent success has been due to some incredibly savvy trades. This is exemplified by the fact that the Athletics initially acquired 23 of all 44 players that appeared in a game for them last season via trade. The Athletics have never had an advantage financially, as they have always been located among the bottom 3^rd of teams in payroll and player in one of the smallest markets in baseball. This fact has forced the Athletics to search for cheap talent through the waiver wire. Also, like the Rays, they have had to trade more expensive players nearing Free Agency in order to supplant their roster with younger and cheaper talent. With one of the best front offices in baseball, the A’s seem poised for sustained success.

Who can the Orioles rely on in their bullpen?
The Orioles bullpen was the lynch pin of their success during the 2012 playoff season and the normalized regression of the bullpen was the difference in the 2013 Orioles season. Coming into 2014, the Orioles are working on a bullpen without a proven closer which may cause even bigger issues than those from 2013. This offseason, the Orioles tried to save some money and traded away their closer, Jim Johnson, to the Athletics and then were on the verge of signing Grant Balfour, only for a physical to go awry. This may not be a great thing for the Orioles, but when you look back at the teams that have made the playoffs in the past, there are a lot of good examples of teams that have had lackluster closer experience.

Where those teams were successful was in correctly platooning relievers and making sure that the right pitchers were pitching in the right scenarios. This is where the Orioles may have some issues; the Orioles may be a bit light in their bullpen. Darren O’Day is an above average middle reliever but he has no closer experience and his stuff may not translate to the ninth inning. Ryan Webb and Brad Brach are nice additions, but they may not be able to make the difference of the Orioles competing or not.

At the end of the day, all analysis of the Orioles bullpen depends on Tommy Hunter. The former starter for the Texas Rangers has transitioned into a bullpen role for the Orioles since the middle part of the 2012 season and has been a solid contributor. Hunter has struck out more and walked less since moving to the bullpen and has focused more on working the zone with his fastball, which has gained more than 4 mph since moving to the bullpen. What the Orioles bullpen comes down to is if Hunter can make that jump from the 7th and 8th inning to the 9th. He has a lot of things that work in his advantage, but there is also the fact that he just moved to the bullpen over the past couple years and that he has changed his approach to pitching a bit. This is not to say that either of those are bad things, but it may be a big jump for Hunter considering that he does not have a lot of experience to begin with.

It is a comfortable assumption that the Orioles will not have a very long leash with Hunter, especially if the AL East gets off to a good start, but he should be able to get by his hiccups and be the Orioles closer throughout the season.

When does Adam Jones get the respect that he deserves?
Adam Jones might be one of the most underappreciated stars in the major leagues. His lack of appreciation may be from his nonchalant attitude in the outfield with blowing bubbles with his bubble gum while trying to catch a ball; it may be that he does not hit a ton of home runs or that he is not very flashy; or it may just be that he is not that interested in the limelight. Chris Davis’ huge 2013 season did not do very much to help Jones either, as Jones was seen as the sidekick to the titanic efforts of Davis. Adam Jones is a star and should be treated as such.

When you look at Jones, the issue with him is what makes him so great; that he is very solid at almost everything while not being truly elite at anything. His streaky nature of hitting and mental lapses may also be detractors, but he is very valuable in the fact that he can do almost everything that the Orioles ask of him. Over the past five years, Jones is basically the poor man’s version of Ryan Braun: combining speed, power, and durability. Unlike Braun, Jones plays a premier defensive position and adds value to the team. There are not very many center fielders in baseball that have 30 home run power, in fact, there is only one other center fielder with multiple 30 home run seasons in the last five years and that is Curtis Granderson who played in the home run haven of Yankee Stadium. Jones was properly respected by the Orioles with the $85 million deal he inked in 2012 and soon the whole baseball world will see the value of the Orioles’ star.

How do the Orioles fill the void of Manny Machado?
Manny Machado is everything that the Orioles could ask out of a 21 year old shortstop. He is versatile enough to play third base, in fact at a Gold Glove caliber, and has even become a better hitter since he started professional ball. His arm strength is elite and the 51 doubles that he turned in last year will quickly turn into home runs as his swing matures. Unfortunately, this season may be a wipe out for Machado because of the gruesome leg injury he got running down the first base line in a September game against the Rays. Machado is going to try to play and is cleared to hit down in Sarasota, but has yet to be cleared to run.

Given this, Orioles fans should get used to Ryan Flaherty at third, which in turn makes Jemile Weeks the starting second baseman. Neither of these are good things for the impending future of the Orioles. Both Weeks and Flaherty are subpar offensively and the advantage of Flaherty’s defensive skill at second will probably be lost at third while he is filling in for the rehabbing Machado.

For the Orioles, they should not rush Machado as his better years are to come and if a leg injury like his is not properly rehabbed, he may lose some of that elite range. There are a lot more Gold Gloves in Machado’s future and it is important for the Orioles to be patient than rush him back. Although the Orioles would be much better off with Machado at third for the duration of the season, they may be able to patch up the infield with a combination of Weeks, Flaherty, and Jonathan Schoop to fill the void left by Machado.

The most optimistic view of the situation would be that Machado is able to take the field by the middle to end of April, but a more realistic view would have him being a designated hitter for a bit and taking over at third by mid May. This may be optimistic for the Orioles considering how bad the injury looked at first glance, but his being cleared for baseball activities is a good sign.

What will the Orioles do with Dylan Bundy this year?
Dylan Bundy was all the rage during the 2012 season, making it from Single A to a September call up in Baltimore. There were still big questions about his workouts and labor throughout high school and the Orioles took it very slowly with him, as he only was allowed to go once through the lineups and was instructed to not throw breaking balls as to not harm his arm and to work on his control. All of the talent was there; the Orioles just wanted to preserve the 19 year old prospect that they drafted 4th in 2011.

In the beginning of the 2013 season, Bundy was having arm trouble that shut him down. By the summer, Bundy had undergone Tommy John surgery and the Orioles were trying to figure out what to do with their prized possession. There is a long history of pitchers coming back stronger from Tommy John, but Bundy is not a normal case. It is common knowledge that Bundy is a fan of long toss to warm up (like Trevor Bauer with the Indians) and he was used to pitching 100+ pitches from a very young age in Oklahoma, throwing hundreds of pitches a weekend even. Given all of this, there was not normal wear and tear on Bundy’s arm as to what you would expect from a 20 year old.

The issue now is for the Orioles not to be scared to let Bundy pitch. The fear for every major league team is that a pitcher gets injured and then they lose him forever because they wanted to stretch those extra 15 pitches out of him; this should not be the case for Bundy and the Orioles did him a disservice in the minor leagues in 2012. The team should not run him out there for 85 pitches, especially not during his rehab, but they need to let him pitch. Bundy’s numbers were outstanding during the 2012 season, but most of them were accumulated while he was only facing the lineup in one turn. The hitters were not getting a chance to adjust to what he was throwing and there was very little to show for Bundy’s stamina in a high pressure situation. In fact, once Bundy did get the opportunity to go a bit deeper, there were a few times when he allowed runs when the pressure was there.

It is best for the Orioles to let Bundy recover from this surgery and not let him pitch until the end of the season, but when they let him pitch again, give him the opportunity to stretch his arm a bit and let him work his whole arsenal of pitches. In the long run that will be best for the Orioles and for Bundy. For the 2014 season, it would be best to keep Bundy in the minor leagues and let him work on extending his arm and arsenal against minor league talent.

Why are the Orioles going to win 84 games?
This team is very strong and has a bright future, but the way that the 2014 season lays out does not look very good for the Orioles. Sadly, teams may only get little opportunities to be competitive and hopefully this is not one of the better chances for the Orioles being lost, but there are too many big questions left unanswered. Who is going to close? Will we see first half of 2013 Chris Davis or second half of 2013 Chris Davis? Will Nick Markakis stay healthy? Will the Orioles add another starter? All of these are massive questions that could not have even been touched on in this article because they are very fluid.

The injuries of Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy do not help either. Judging by the talent level of each of these players, the Orioles had to have hoped that they would be key contributors for the 2014 season and, quite frankly, the team is quite barren and two positions that these talented young players would be outstanding fits for. There is a lot of room for improvement with this team and, fortunately for them, it can be made from inside of the organization but until the team is a whole rather than a bunch of incongruent pieces, the playoffs are not in the near future for the Orioles.

5 You Know:
1. Adam Jones
2. Chris Davis
3. Chris Tillman
4. Nick Markakis
5. Matt Wieters

5 You Will Know:
1. Dylan Bundy
2. Kevin Gausman
3. Eduardo Rodriguez
4. Jonathan Schoop
5. Henry Urrutia

5 You Should Remember:
1. Hunter Harvey
2. Tim Berry
3. Zach Davis
4. Chance Sisco
5. Josh Hart

One of the great things about baseball is that it’s played in so many different ballparks, each with their own quirks and different dimensions. Much has been written about how different ballparks affect the game: the different distances of the fences, the size of the foul area, the altitude, and even what days the locals hang their laundry outside. These various park factors affect more than just the results of batted balls. They also influence the number of walks and strike outs. I want to take a look at a more esoteric park factor that has to my knowledge been ignored up to this point. Gravity. In high school you were probably told that gravity on Earth was a constant 32 ft/s² (or 9.8 m/s²), which was actually a white lie.  To be exact, the Earth’s gravity is 32.1740 ft/s² (or 9.80665 m/s²), but more importantly gravity is not constant.

There are several reasons the Earth’s gravity as we experience it is not constant. First, the Earth is not a perfectly uniform sphere. When mathematically approximating gravity we make the assumption that the Earth is a perfectly uniform sphere. But, since the Earth is not perfectly round and uniform, this assumption leads to a small error in the approximations and does not account for gravitational variations in different locations.

Second, gravity is dependent on your distance from the center of the Earth. Gravity is inversely proportional to the square of the distance between two objects, say between you and the Earth. The further away from the Earth you are, the weaker gravity is, g = g₀ (r_e /(r_e+h))²  where r_e is the radius of the Earth, g₀ is gravity at sea level, and h is how high you are above sea level. For example, at Coors Field g=g₀(20,925,524.9/(20,925,524.9+5,219.82))²  this equation tells us that gravity is 32.157913 ft/s²  at Coors Field, or  0.05% less than gravity at sea level (32.1740 ft/s²).

The third reason why the Earth’s gravity as we experience it is not constant is related to the centrifugal forces caused by the Earth spinning. The fact that the Earth is rotating does not actually change gravity (well this is a lie according to relativity there will be some rotational frame dragging but this effect is extremely hard to detect and surely won’t have a measurable effect on baseball). Centrifugal forces appose gravity and make items feel lighter. These forces are strongest near the equator (where you are the furthest from the Earth’s axis and therefore moving the fastest) and weakest near the poles (where you are closer to the Earth’s axis and rotating more slowly).  An easy way to remember this is gravity will be weaker the closer you are to the equator.

Let’s take a break from all this math for a bit. Here is the juicy part, the table below shows the gravity at all the different major league ballparks and the percent increase or decrease in gravity compared to the average gravity at all the ballparks (this is based on EGM2008, made easily available thorough wolfram alpha). Negative percentages indicate a decrease in gravity, while positive percentages indicate an increase in gravity.

(If you are paying close attention: 1) you might have noticed the average gravity in the table is lower than our conventional constant for gravity, 32.1740 ft/s². The average gravity in the table above is the average gravity at major-league ballparks only, not  the average gravity of all points around the world. 2) The table value for gravity at Coors Field does not exactly match what we calculated earlier. This is because the measure we calculated earlier did not account for centrifugal force or the effects of a non-uniform Earth. The gravity for Coors Field in this table allows for those factors.

The difference between the two most extreme ballparks is 0.07649 ft/s².   Alone this number seems small and is hard to conceptualize. I’ve gone ahead and explored a few different baseball scenarios to illustrate its effects.

So, what does 0.07649 ft/s²  really mean for the game of baseball?

1. Players are measurably lighter at lower gravity ballparks.

CC Sabathia feels just a little lighter while pitching in Miami than when in Seattle, a whole whopping 0.69 lbs lighter!  (Perhaps this is why when so many players travel to Florida for Spring Training they report feeling in the best shape of their life…)

2. An outfielder will have slightly longer to catch a fly ball in a lower gravity ballpark.

A fly ball with 4.5 second hang time at an average park would stay in the air 5.7 milliseconds longer in Miami, and in Seattle it would be in the air for 5 fewer milliseconds. That almost 11 millisecond difference in hang time between Miami and Seattle would mean that a running out fielder might cover 2 more inches in Miami, not enough to make any reel difference but interesting nonetheless.

3. Pitches will sink less in a lower gravity ballpark.

Pitches will sink less in Miami than they will in Seattle, but how much less? On a 65 mph slow curve it takes the ball about 0.650 seconds to reach the plate. This ball will drop 0.2 inches lower in Seattle vs. Miami. An average pitch taking 0.45 seconds to reach home plate, will only drop an addition 0.09 inches in Seattle vs. Miami. For comparison the diameter of a baseball bat is 2.6 inches or less.  A 0.2 inch difference is 1/13 the diameter of a baseball bat, which is too small of a difference to turn a hit into a swing and miss.

4. Home runs will travel farther in a lower gravity ballpark.

When it comes to home runs one would think differences in gravity would start to play a bigger role. Because home runs are in the air longer, gravity is bound to have a greater effect on them than it does on pitched balls. The hang time of a home run is usually a full order of magnitude longer than that of a pitch. Assuming identical weather conditions, a baseball hit 120 MPH at a 26^o angle would travel 13 inches (THAT’S MORE THAN 1 FOOT!) farther in Miami than it would in Seattle. That could make a difference, not in the actual score, but in what seat in the bleachers the ball would land. Although a foot is the largest difference we have talked about so far, practically it doesn’t really matter much for a no-doubt home run that’s traveling over 460 feet.

5. Just for Fun…

On the surface of the Earth if we wanted to look for extremes we would see the highest gravity at the South Pole, which would be 32.26174 ft/s² or 0.335% higher than the average gravity at a major league ball park (this and a few other factors would lead me to believe that playing in the South Pole would really suppress home runs). The other extreme would probably be in Quito, the capital of Ecuador (there is actually a volcano in Ecuador with slightly lower gravity but let’s look at one plausible hypothetical) where gravity is 32.04248 ft/s² or -0.347% below average. In Quito Sabathia would be 1lb lighter than he would at an average ball park and 1.3 pounds lighter than he would in Seattle. That same hypothetical 120 mph home run would go 0.9 feet farther in Quito than it would a an average ball park, and 1.3 feet shorter at the South Pole. This is of course completely hypothetical because we are assuming all other conditions are the same at these two ball parks such as air density and temperature, and this definitely not the case.

Thanks to

National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency for publicly releasing the Earth Gravitational Model EGM2008

Alan Nathan for providing the trajectory calculator tool, which I used to calculate difference in batted ball distances, the calculator can be found on his website http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/trajectory-calculator.html

Who is Masahiro Tanaka?
This has been the question that baseball has been asking since there was a buzz created around his coming to the United States; buzz that probably started around the 2009 World Baseball Classic. Tanaka is a 25 year old Japanese pitcher with a stunning arsenal of pitches, especially his split-finger, who has had quite a bit of success in Japan since his debut in 2007 at 18. In looking at his abilities, it is best to look at his NPB statistics against those of his two best contemporaries, Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka. It is fair to compare Tanaka to each of these pitchers because they were all similar ages when they started in the MLB (Darvish was also 25 and Matsuzaka was 26) and each was a top of the line pitcher in Japan.

For measurement’s sake, this will look at a couple key stats: innings pitched per start, WHIP, and strikeout to walk ratio. In Tanaka’s 7 year career in Japan, he averaged 7.6 innings per game started as compared to 7.7 for Darvish and 7.3 for Matsuzaka. When analyzing WHIP, Tanaka posted a 1.11 WHIP, while Darvish was at .985 and Matsuzaka was at 1.14. Finally, in the ever important category of strikeout to walk ratio, Tanaka was at 4.5, while Darvish marked at 3.75 and Matsuzaka was at 2.7. As we have seen, Darvish has rounded into a pretty good pitcher in the big leagues, even with some walk issues, and Matsuzaka was a solid part of the Red Sox rotation until his own pitch count issues did him in with Boston. Given these comparisons and the trends of statistics for each of these players, it is fair to say that Tanaka may not be as explosive as Darvish, but he is a very solid pitcher that will work the zone effectively and get the team deeper in the game.

Both Darvish and Matsuzaka had some walk issues as they transitioned to the MLB, as there is a huge difference between MLB players and NPB players in pitch recognition, and this may be a problem for Tanaka. If one were to hypothesize a reason for the walk issues for both Matsuzaka and Darvish, it was that they had such a huge gathering of pitches and it was tough to grab the strike zone with all of them, particularly their split finger fastballs which had a lot of NPB hitters swinging and missing as they dove out of the strike zone. As the splitter is a key pitch for Tanaka, this is absolutely something to watch during the 2014 season.

The good thing for Tanaka, though, is that he does not have the crazy assortment of pitches like Matsuzaka and he is more like Darvish with the basic four pitch arsenal. Once Tanaka is able to grasp the difference between the MLB and NPB strike zone, there is nothing to keep him from being a solid pitcher in the big leagues. Maybe he does not have the upside of Darvish, but it is not outlandish to predict that he will be a solid number two or fringe number one starter in the big leagues.

When will the Yankees realize how much they miss Mariano Rivera?
Mariano Rivera was the rock and foundation of the back end of the Yankees for the better part of two decades. It would be foolish to say that there will not be a difference made by his retirement, but the impact of his retirement will not be as great as one would assume, particularly for the closer position. In fact, when the Yankees lost Rivera for the 2012 season, they were fine with Rafael Soriano as an All-Star closer. David Robertson may or may not have as much of an impact as a veteran closer like Soriano, but it would be within the realm of possibility that the All-Star reliever Robertson can translate into the All-Star closer Robertson.

That being said, Robertson’s departure to the closer role leaves a large gap in the middle relief and set up roles. Both the inconsistent Joba Chamberlain and the ever reliable Boone Logan leaving will not help the 7th and 8th inning situation for the Yankees as well. The good news for the Yankees is that they signed Matt Thornton to take Boone Logan’s role and Shawn Kelley looked good in spurts while at the end of the game. The big unknowns are two young pitchers that may have a huge impact for the Yankees bullpen in 2014 and beyond. Cesar Cabral is a hard throwing lefty that the Yankees selected in the Rule 5 Draft in 2012 and lost for that season due to Tommy John surgery. Fortunately for the Yankees, the 23 year old came back during the 2013 season and was a strikeout machine in the minors, leading to a September call up to the Yankees, where he was solid in an 8 game audition. If he is able to work on his control, the 24 year old Cabral would be a huge boost to the bullpen.

Another young pitcher that the Yankees need to have make strides is Dellin Betances. The former top 50 prospect as a starter has bounced around a bit and had found a niche in the Scranton bullpen during the 2013 where he allowed one run and struck out 30 while minimizing his walks in his final 19 innings in the minor leagues. The imposing Betances should be able to fill the void left by Chamberlain in the Yankees bullpen and may even be a set up man by the time the stretch run comes around. The impact of Mariano Rivera’s retirement is may not be felt in the closer’s role, but the Yankees will need to shuffle around some players and hope for their younger pitchers to continue their development to fill the void left by the Hall of Fame closer.

How will the big spending of the Yankees affect the development of the younger players?
The Yankees were lauded in the late 1990s and early 2000s for having a seemingly never ending farm system that was fruit for big league stars and young players to involve in the blockbuster trades that the Yankees made. For a long time now, though, this well has dried up and the Yankees farm system is decent at best. There is a ton of opportunity in the minors, though, and the Yankees farm system could bloom into a top farm system if things go right. At the same time, players like Tyler Austin or Mason Williams could continue to regress and Michael Pineda or Manny Banuelos could stay injury prone and the farm system could be even worse off than they are now.

In answering the question posed above, the big spending allows the Yankees to let all of this play out. There will not be a ton of pressure on the younger players to move up the ladder quickly and, frankly, other than middle infielders and relievers, the Yankees do not have pressing needs at the big league level. This is not to say that the Yankees could not use a player like Pineda or Sanchez or Williams at the big league level, but rather it is that the Yankees have spent a lot of money on their big league roster and would like to see return on their investment. There are a lot of players in the minor league system for the Yankees that need a big 2014 season after disappointing 2013 seasons and the spending spree that the Yankees went on this offseason will allow these players to develop at a steady pace rather than feel the pressure of an imminent big league promotion.

What will the twilight of Derek Jeter’s career look like?
As with every person, at some point in life, your skills diminish and you have to walk away from what you were once good at. For Derek Jeter, this realism has to occur quite soon. In almost every way you look at it, Jeter has become weaker and his skill base is eroding. At the best point of Jeter’s career, he was a hitter that could control the field and spread the ball all over the place with his patented inside out swing. Now, he has lost a bit on his swing and cannot get around on the inside pitch as well as he did even two or three years ago and his contact has become weaker, with ground ball rates in the 60% range. Since his speed has also disappeared, this is a bad omen for the soon to be 40 year old Jeter.

What is even worse for Jeter is that his hitting is the reason that he is still playing baseball, as his range is nearly non-existent. It is sad to see the greats go out like Jeter will, but he needs to realize that his time has come to an end. The Yankees need to work diligently at finding a replacement for Jeter in the minors, as the free agent market for shortstops is usually thin, and it was good thing that the Yankees used an early pick on Gosuke Katoh who may be able to bridge the gap. As for the twilight of Jeter’s career here in 2014 and, possibly 2015, expect that he plays about 100 games at shortstop, another 20-25 at designated hitter, and is cautiously used in a way that can optimize what skills he does have left. If Jeter is able to keep his batting average in the high .270s or .280s, the Yankees will be able to accept that along with his leadership and knowledge of the game.

Why are the Yankees going to win 93 games?
The prediction on the Yankees is strongly based in the fact that the past two years that the Yankees have not had superb seasons and have had very good outputs. It is shocking to say that the Yankees have not had a great amount of success considering how much money they spend on their team, but that is the truth. At some point, Joe Girardi may need to be given some credit for managing the egos that the Yankees have and for making sure that they are at the top of their games. Last year’s team had no reason to win 85 games and there is more talent on this team. There are many that are not fans of the Yankees having a lineup that is full of so many older players and, at my count, five different players that will need to play DH this year for some reason or another, but there is a lot to like about this Yankees team. Although Jacoby Ellsbury was a very big reach, all of the other pick ups that the Yankees made this offseason were smart in a financial and player personnel way. This year, a lot of the holes that were there with the Yankees of 2013 should be filled and the Yankees will return to the playoffs.

5 You Know:
1. Alfonso Soriano
2. CC Sabathia
3. Hiroki Kuroda
4. Carlos Beltran
5. Jacoby Ellsbury

5 You Will Know:
1. Masahiro Tanaka
2. Jose Ramirez
3. Mark Montgomery
4. Slade Heathcott
5. Zolio Almonte

5 You Should Remember:
1. Eric Jagielo
2. Tyler Austin
3. Gary Sanchez
4. Mason Williams
5. Ian Clarkin

What will the Red Sox get from Xander Bogaerts this year?
Right now, there are a lot of good things that people are saying about Xander Bogaerts and there is a lot of reason for that. He is a big, strong kid (yes, kid — he is only 21) and he will only grow into his body more and more as time goes on. Many can say that Bogaerts strikes out way too much for a middle infielder, but he is also not your typical middle infielder, as people see 25-plus home run potential from Bogaerts. Also, his walk rate has stabilized in the 10% range, and that is good for a young hitter. As for this year, Bogaerts should grab the shortstop position from the departed Stephen Drew. An average around .270 and somewhere between 15-20 homeruns with a very incongruent fielding season should be a good rookie campaign out of Boegaerts. That would make him about the same value to the Red Sox in 2014 as Drew was in 2013, but in the grand scheme of things, a top 3 Rookie of the Year performance will be a huge boost to the future of the Red Sox.

Who will be the 5th man in the Red Sox rotation by the end of the season?
On the onset of the season, the Red Sox have a very volatile rotation other than Jon Lester. Between the inconsistency of John Lackey and Ryan Dempster and the injury history of Jake Peavy and Clay Buchholz, it is very difficult to say if the Red Sox will have an elite staff like the one that led them to a World Series title or if the injuries and inconsistency will lead to a lot of round trip journeys to Pawtucket. By the end of the season, for one reason or another, Matt Barnes will sneak into a consistent fifth starter in the rotation. The first pick by the Red Sox in the 2011, Barnes has had some issues with walks throughout his minor league career, but he has blown hitters away at each level since being drafted and will prove his worth in AAA before he makes it up to the Boston roster. This is not an indictment of Allen Webster or Henry Owens, but rather it is an endorsement of the skills of Barnes over them. As stated previously, the Red Sox are set up very favorably in the near future with those three ready to join the rotation with Lester and Buchholz.

Will the Red Sox miss Jacoby Ellsbury?
This could be very simple and to the point, Jackie Bradley Jr. should be worth about two wins less than Jacoby Ellsbury this year. That is very cut and paste and that should be enough to say that the Red Sox will miss Ellsbury. This is not the whole story though. There is the fact that Ellsbury has been hurt throughout his career very frequently and his production has been incongruent. Considering the amount of money that the Yankees paid to get him to come to New York, it is not a shock that the Red Sox let him leave. In a vacuum, the Ellsbury move was one that was bad for Boston, as they do not have a sure thing in Bradley and there is nothing in Bradley’s history that shows that he will be anything better than just above average.

When you look at all of the factors, though, the move is a bit better for Boston. The easiest reason to say that the Red Sox will be fine is that all of the money that would have been spent on Ellsbury can now be given to other players and that the Red Sox do not need to pay an aging veteran a lot of money in the next five years. Also, even though the Red Sox are coming off of a World Series win, the team is looking to build for the future with guys like Bradley and Bogaerts and want to see what they have for the future and want to see if they have in house players that could fuel another run and a profitable future.

What should the Red Sox expect out of Clay Buchholz?
A couple times in this post, I have mentioned Clay Buchholz and I feel like I could write 2500 words just explaining him and the enigma that he is as a player. Throughout his minor league career, Buchholz was a big time strikeout guy and looked that way during his brief call up in late 2007. He also pitched a no-hitter late in the 2007 World Series winning season. Since that time, Buchholz’s entire career has been an elevator and at any time that he seems to figure it out, bigger questions are created; specifically looking at his two best seasons, 2010 and 2013.

In 2010, Buchholz was 17-7 and had a 2.33 ERA which were stellar numbers for a 26 year old, making the Red Sox look at him as the ace for the future. He also, though, only had 6.22 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9. There were good numbers that led to the solid “baseball card” numbers of 17 wins and a 2.33 ERA, but none of that was sustained in 2011 and 2012, although there were moments in 2011 when Buchholz was a good player before he got injured.

Suddenly, in 2013, Buchholz was better than ever, posting a career high in K/9, a career low in BB/9, and minimizing home runs, leading to a sub-2 ERA. Unfortunately, this was done in just over 100 innings pitched and his strand rate was at a career high while his BABIP was at a career low. For the 2014 season, the median should be the norm, as Buchholz’s ERA should be in the mid 3’s and he should be able to contribute 25-28 starts for the Sox. As for the walk and strikeout rates, it is probably best for Buchholz to pitch to contact a bit more and let that walk rate get into the high 2’s per 9. A wise suggestion for his future would be to get a bit more sink on his fastball, as his ground ball rate is alarming low for a pitcher obviously focusing on pitching to contact a bit more.

Why are the Red Sox going to win 86 games?
The 2013 Red Sox were a team on a mission, both to run the table in the AL East and to win the World Series. This year, though, there are some big question that are still similar from the onset of the 2013 season. No one knows about the health of Clay Buccholz or Jake Peavy or even Shane Victorino or Mike Napoli and a team with those many injury questions cannot be seen as a force going forward. That being said, there is a very strong case for the Red Sox exceeding what the predictions say, as John Farrell is a very good manager. As shown last year in the juggling that was done and all of the correct platoons that Farrell played, there is no reason to expect that the Red Sox will be under 90 wins. It is a catch-22 to say that the same reasons that the Red Sox may succeed is why they may fail, but the Red Sox cannot expect guys like Jonny Gomes, Mike Carp, and Daniel Nava to perform at the same level that they were at during the 2013 season and that is why there is a dose of pessimism in the the forecast for the Red Sox.

5 You Know:
1. David Ortiz
2. Dustin Pedroia
3. Mike Napoli
4. Jon Lester
5. Clay Buchholz

5 You Will Know:
1. Matt Barnes
2. Henry Owens
3. Rubby De La Rosa
4. Allen Webster
5. Brandon Workman

5 You Should Remember:
1. Bryce Brentz
2. Garin Cecchini
3. Blake Swihart
4. Trey Ball
5. Mookie Betts

What is the impact of Evan Longoria on the 2014 Rays?
This is a tricky question to answer, as he is the most important player on the team and he makes this team run smoothly. That being said, he has had some injury and consistency issues in the past and it is very possible that those same issues will plague him during the 2014 season. The positive things about Longoria abound: he fields a tough position very well, he hits for power, he balances the lineup, and he walks a good amount for a power hitter. Yet there are still some questions with the young star. First off is the strikeout rate, which has consistently been in the 20% range, except for the 2011 season. This is interesting to look at because the 2011 season, Longoria had outliers in the positive rate for walk rate and for strikeout rate, yet his patient approach lead to a career low in batting average, most attributed to his ridiculously low BABIP.

This season should be a year for Longoria to really break out and that should bode very well for the Rays. Longoria needs to focus on getting the ball in play, though, because that 2011 season was very fluky and should be looked at as an outlier. As Longoria focuses on stretching out the count and shortening his swing when the count is in the pitcher’s favor, his numbers will get even better. For the 2014 season, an average in the mid-280s with 35-40 home runs and elite defense will make Longoria an MVP candidate.

Is Wil Myers going to turn into a megastar for the Rays?
The 2013 AL Rookie of the Year was everything that the Rays could have expected from a first year player, other than the sometimes suspect defense (see ALDS vs. Red Sox). Considering that, Myers has big expectations for the 2014 season and beyond. When you look at Myers, there is a lot of reason to see a very good player and a few reasons to see just a solid starter. First off, there is the fact that he has jumped around position wise in his time in professional baseball. His days as a catcher and third baseman are behind him, but there was still reason to question his ability to play defense leading to him jumping around. He does have a strong arm, but some of the angles he takes to the ball can be a bit off and that leads to some issues.

Secondly, he strikes out too much. This is an issue for most young hitters so it would be unfair to characterize this as an issue that just plagues Myers, but it is something to look at as he progresses throughout his career. There is a bit of a hitch in his swing, so the strike out issues may not be something that go away. Although I do not see Wil Myers becoming megastar for the Rays, I do see him as a solid contributor, someone that will have upper 20 home run power, play a sufficient right field, and make a couple of All-Star games along the way.

How are the Rays going to manage Matt Moore and Chris Archer?
This question needs to taken in two different ways. First off: are either Chris Archer or Matt Moore that big in the grand scheme of the Rays’ plan and if so which one and how much? In watching Chris Archer, I see stardom in his pitches, his focus, and his delivery. There are certain players that have that IT and Archer has it; his only questions are if he will be able to focus his aggression and emotion on the mound and if he can keep his walk rate near his 2013 MLB level. He needs to focus more on his offspeed pitches, particularly his cutter, and he will be fine.

The analysis of Matt Moore opens up the second question: what can they get from these players? For Archer, they will be getting a decade of advanced pitching. There is no such thing as a sure thing, but looking at Archer, one can see that the moment does not scare him. As for Moore, he will be the next target of a big time trade, either with David Price being traded or Price not being traded. I do not have a huge issue with Moore other than the walk issues, but I feel that there are other teams that may value Moore more (see the pun there!) than he actually should be valued. There are a lot of parallels between Moore and Myers, sadly in a bad way, and I feel like the Rays moreso than any other team in baseball will optimize the value of Moore.

What will be the impact of the next wave of young talent for the Rays?
The Rays are a very solid team that has turned into a superb team by good drafting and developing of players. At this point, though, the well is a bit dry. When you look at the ten prospects below, there are a couple good players that the Rays have in the MiLB, maybe a starter or two, but not that true impact player like the Rays have been rolling off. Going from Longoria to Price to Moore to Myers to Romero/Lee is quite the drop off and the Rays will remedy that accordingly. There will be more than one team that will overspend on David Price and the Rays will make sure to get top flight young talent for him. A team like the Rockies or Phillies, that may be fringe playoff teams, might overspend greatly on Price and fix the Rays minor league issues.

That being said, Hak Ju-Lee should be the shortstop of the future for the Rays and should be a 30 steal player with average hitting and fielding and Taylor Guerreri and Nick Ciuffo are very interesting because they are so young and talented. When you have those three players as middle of the road prospects for the Rays after the big Price trade yields them a big name (see: Eddie Butler from the Rockies or Maikel Franco from the Phillies or a huge package from the Rangers), the Rays will yet again have a top five farm system.

Why are the Rays going to win 89 games?
The Joe Maddon Rays always find a way to be in the conversation to win the division or make the playoffs. He has changed the entire culture of the organization and made it one of the best run teams in the league. Those are the exact same two sentences from the 2013 preview and I do not plan on changing those sentences until Maddon retires. It is nearly unprecedented in the history of baseball that a manager and executive have changed the fortunes of a franchise in the ways that Friedman and Maddon have. The only thing that is missing for the Rays is a World Series title and I have a feeling that there will be a championship in the Rays future soon, as they only get better. All the team does is reload and utilize the players that they have to their maximum utility. Talent wise, this may be the best Rays team ever, so it is not crazy to think that this team could be closer to 95 than 90 wins.

5 You Know:
1. David Price
2. Evan Longoria
3. Ben Zobrist
4. Matt Moore
5. Wil Myers

5 You Will Know:
1. Enny Romero
2. Hak Ju-Lee
3. Alex Colome
4. Jake Odorizzi
5. Kevin Kiermaier

5 You Should Remember:
1. Taylor Guerrieri
2. Andrew Toles
3. Ryan Brett
4. Nick Ciuffo
5. Richie Shaffer

Hanley Ramirez had a roller-coaster 2013 marked by bad luck with injuries and exceptional production with the bat.  He missed the first month with a torn thumb ligament and tore his hamstring in his third game back, causing him to miss another month of action.  Overall, Han-Ram played only 86 regular season games, but when we played he hit the cover off the ball.  In 336 plate appearances he hammered 20 home runs and a .442 wOBA (second only to Miguel Cabrera for players with over 100 PA).  While the title of this post should lead the reader to believe it is primarily about Han-Ram, that would be false.  In fact, it’s mainly about different methods to measure fantasy value, with Han-Ram used to illustrate a point.

Fantasy value above replacement (FVAR) is a metric that has been used (for example on FanGraphs) to estimate the auction value of historical or projected baseball statistics in a rotisserie league.  The most popular way to measure FVAR uses z-scores: the number of standard deviations above the mean for any given statistic(s).  Z-scores are handy because they put different stats, such as HR and SB, on a level playing field.  An unresolved question is whether FVAR should be calculated using total stats (e.g., Han-Ram hit 20 HRs) or rate stats (e.g., Han-Ram hit 0.06 HR per plate appearance).  In this post I’m calling the method using total stats the z-score and the method using rate stats the zz-score.    I looked at how Han-Ram’s fantasy value changed using both methods (assuming 12-team mixed 5×5 with $160 auction budget for hitters per team).

Han-Ram’s Value Based on z-Score

The table below summarizes the calculation of Han-Ram’s z-score in 2013.  The data is drawn from players with at least 100 plate appearances.  The z-score is Han-Ram’s stat minus league average (mean), divided by league standard deviation.

Han-Ram’s overall z-score sums to 5.4.  The next table shows how that compares with other shortstops.  For an explanation of how the auction values were calculated see here and here.  (Erick Aybar was the replacement level shortstop, but his auction value is greater than zero because his z-score was higher than the replacement level Util player, Justin Ruggiano.)  Using the z-score method, Han-Ram ranked fourth among shortstops even though he played in only 86 games.

Han-Ram’s Value Based on zz-Score

The calculation of Han-Ram’s zz-score is illustrated in the table below.  It’s identical to the z-score calculation, but rate stats (per PA) are used instead of season totals.

Han-Ram’s zz-score in 2013 summed to 10.7, putting him at the top of the heap for shortstops.  To calculate Han-Ram’s FVAR in 2013 I multiplied his zz-score by his plate appearances, adjusted for replacement level and then calculated auction values.  Results are shown below.

 Han-Ram’s Fantasy Value

Depending on how we look at the world, Han-Ram was either the most valuable fantasy SS in 2013 or the fourth-best.  I think both methods are legitimate, but I prefer zz-score for a few reasons.  As Zach Sanders has noted on FanGraphs, z-score makes a broad assumption:

“These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year.”

In other words, z-score assumes my SS roster spot was empty when Han-Ram was on the DL.  That’s obviously not a good assumption, because in a 12-team mixed league I would have easily found a replacement-level SS to plug in while Han-Ram was sidelined.

To illustrate the point, I looked at the 2013 stats for Jean Segura (the highest-ranked SS using z-score) compared to Han-Ram for 86 games plus a replacement SS.  Using the zz-score method, and the league assumptions noted above, Asdrubal Cabrera was identified as the replacement level SS in 2013 with a zz-score of 0.4.  For the sake of this comparison I assumed the replacement added value in steals and was league average in all other categories.  It should be pretty obvious that Han-Ram plus a replacement was more valuable than Jean Segura.

What does this tell us?  In leagues where it is fairly easy to plug in replacement-level players (e.g., shallow leagues with daily transactions and plenty of DL spots) zz-score is a better method for determining fantasy value.  In leagues where it’s hard to replace an injured player or plug in serviceable options, playing time becomes a more valuable commodity and z-score is probably a better reflection of real value.  As is often the case, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, between z and zz.

Twitter: @FVARBaseball

Website: fvarbaseball.wordpress.com

With just a couple weeks until MLB camps begin with pitchers and catchers reporting, most of the big-name free agents have found new homes and are looking to settle in and produce for their new team. However, there are still a few stragglers that are looking for the right opportunity for their services. Some players *cough* Drew, Cruz and Morales *cough* are finding it difficult to land a spot due to their limited markets. Likewise, most starting pitchers needed to wait out the Masahiro Tanaka saga before teams decided to move on.

While the pickings are slim when it comes to some positions, I wondered what a team complied fully of the remaining free agents would look like, and how they would stack up against the rest of the league if they formed a new team. For this example, they will be called the Free Agent Stragglers. Now, there were some guidelines when putting this team together. First of all, all WAR projections are taken from Oliver simply because the Oliver system projects all batters to receive 600 PA and sort of evens the playing field that way.

Obviously there are some flaws to this, most notably bench players who will not reach that mark, but, I digress. Also, personal opinion is left out. Players listed at each position are simply the highest projected WAR player left at that position at it stands right now, defense and other considerations be damned. Lastly, for this illustration, I made the hypothetical team an AL team simply to give to an extra spot in the lineup. Finally, to be eligible, there has to be an Oliver projection for that player. Basically, this just affected Suk-Min Yoon and Yenier Bello.

At any rate, here are the hypothetical Free Agent Stragglers:

Catcher: Kelly Shoppach (1.3 WAR)

First Base: Kendrys Morales (1.5 WAR)

Second Base: Elliot Johnson (0.1 WAR)

Third Base: Justin Turner (0.9 WAR)

Shortstop: Stephen Drew (1.7 WAR)

Left Field: Juan Pierre (0.9 WAR)

Center Field: Andres Torres (0.8 WAR)

Right Field: Nelson Cruz (2.6 WAR)

Designated Hitter: Lance Berkman (0.8 WAR)

Starting Lineup WAR: 10.6

Bench: Michael Young (0.5 WAR)

Bench: Dewayne Wise (0.6 WAR)

Bench: Jeff Baker (0.4 WAR)

Bench: Yorvit Torrealba (0 WAR)

Bench WAR: 1.5/3 = 0.5 WAR

 *WAR was divided by three to try and compensate for the fact that bench players will not see the projected playing time that Oliver gives.

Starting Pitcher: A.J. Burnett (2.3 WAR)

Starting Pitcher: Ubaldo Jimenez (1.8 WAR)

Starting Pitcher: Paul Maholm (1.3 WAR)

Starting Pitcher: Jason Hammel (1.2 WAR)

Starting Pitcher: Erik Bedard (1.1 WAR)

Starting Rotation WAR: 7.7

Closer: Fernando Rodney (0.7 WAR)

Setup: Matt Belisle (1.0 WAR)

Relief Pitcher: Rafael Betancourt (0.5 WAR)

Relief Pitcher: Francisco Rodriguez (0.4 WAR)

Relief Pitcher: Andrew Bailey (0.2 WAR)

Left Handed Relief Pitcher: Mike Gonzalez (0.0 WAR)

Long Relief / Alt Starter: Chris Capuano (1.0 WAR/3 = 0.3 WAR)

*Capuano’s 1.0 WAR is clearly for him being a SP. I divided it by three and rounded down to account for spot starts and actual bullpen work.

Bullpen WAR: 3.1

 TOTAL TEAM WAR: 21.9

So, what does this tell us? According to the FanGraphs team Depth Charts, the Free Agent Stragglers would be better than exactly one team: Miami Marlins. The Marlins are currently projected at a team WAR of 20.9; 1.0 less WAR than this team. The next lowest team, that Chicago White Sox, have 4.3 WAR on the Stragglers. Now, as stated earlier, this is an imperfect list. The projections are made differently and the team charts take into consideration team depth and actual predicted playing time. Nonetheless, it still puts it into perspective a bit.

To look at it another way, Mike Trout’s 10.4 WAR 2013 would only be 0.2 worse than the team’s full lineup. Throw Kershaw into this rotation and he would have made up for 6.5 WAR (2.2 less than the team’s rotation).

Yes, I realize that Lance Berkman is set to announce his retirement. However, it is my assumption that this is the great opportunity that he was looking for and he signs on with the Free Agent Stragglers to become their full time DH. Moving on.

There were some puzzling omissions with this as well, the main person being Ervin Santana. While Steamers gives Santana a projection of 2.6 WAR, Oliver likes Ervin for only 0.6 WAR. After looking into it further, aside from the names listed above for the team, Oliver projections has six additional starting pitchers slated to give their team more than Santana can. That list includes Tommy Hanson (1.0), Jeff Niemann (0.9), Roy Oswalt (0.9), Bronson Arroyo (0.8), Johan Santana (0.8) and Jake Westbrook (0.7). Let that sink in for a moment.

Now, you cannot just have one team enter the league. Let’s take the hypothetical one step further. What if a team was formed just as free agency started? What would the team look like if the top players signed with the team from the beginning? How good could that team be? Only stipulations other than the ones listed above are that they had to have actually gone to free agency i.e. signed on or after November 5^th, and they cannot be listed on the above team. I’ll call them the Free Agent Sluggers. Let’s take a look, shall we?

Catcher: Brian McCann (4.1 WAR)

First Base: James Loney (1.8 WAR)

Second Base: Robinson Cano (4.2 WAR)

Third Base: Juan Uribe (2.1 WAR)

Shortstop: Johnny Peralta (2.6 WAR)

Left Field: Marlon Byrd (3.3 WAR)

Center Field: Jacoby Ellsbury (3.8 WAR)

Right Field: Shin-Soo Choo (5.4 WAR)

Designated Hitter: Carlos Beltran (2.4 WAR)

*Like Yoon and Bello, a projection was not available for Jose Abreu.

Starting Lineup WAR: 29.7

Bench: Curtis Granderson (2.0 WAR)

Bench: Omar Infante (2.8 WAR)

Bench: Kevin Youkilis (1.9 WAR)

Bench: Dioner Navarro (3.6 WAR)

Bench WAR: 10.3/3 = 3.4 WAR

*Divided by three per Bench WAR note above.

Starting Pitcher: Masahiro Tanaka (6.4 WAR)

Starting Pitcher: Hiroki Kuroda (2.8 WAR)

Starting Pitcher: Ricky Nolasco (2.6 WAR)

Starting Pitcher: Matt Garza (1.9 WAR)

Starting Pitcher: Bartolo Colon (1.7 WAR)

Starting Rotation WAR: 15.4

Closer: Joe Nathan (0.8 WAR)

Setup: Jesse Crain (0.8 WAR)

Relief Pitcher: Edward Mujica (0.5 WAR)

Relief Pitcher: LaTroy Hawkins (0.4 WAR)

Relief Pitcher: Joaquin Benoit (0.4 WAR)

Left Handed Relief Pitcher: Eric O’Flaherty (0.3 WAR)

Long Relief / Alt Starter: Scott Feldman (1.7 WAR/3 = 0.6 WAR)

*Feldman’s WAR adjusted for new role

**Ryan Webb, John Axford and Matt Thronton all have a projection of 0.4 WAR. Hawkins and Benoit received the spots due to having a higher actual WAR last season.

Bullpen WAR: 3.8

 TOTAL TEAM WAR: 52.3

This number crushes the top team projection of 46.7 for the Boston Red Sox. That is all with the weak spots still at the corner infield positions. Now, again, there are some flaws to this, but this is just to have some fun. These two teams really show how weak the free agent market was for most infield positions; especially if you take out the top player. Many of the secondary options are much less appealing.

There were a few surprises with this team as well. First of all, Oliver LOVES Tanaka. There seems to be a bit of a crush for him. Tanaka’s projection would have been the second-best WAR by a pitcher each of the last two seasons (tied for second with AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer). Also, I was a bit surprised to see Balfour at only 0.2 WAR, and therefore not making the team. He has yet to have a full season below 0.4. The last big surprise was Mike Napoli not being able to make the team, even as a bench player. While Steamer’s projection of 2.0 WAR would have given him the starting first base gig for the Sluggers, Oliver knocks him down to 1.7 WAR, barely missing the cut.

The 2013 Free Agent pool certainly had talent. It would be exciting to see what would happen if a team like this actually came together, but alas, it will never happen. All we can do is sit back and watch as the last few dominoes fall as teams try and fill their final needs with the players that are still available.

Hi Baseball fans,

I’ve been working on a project with some students of mine at Middlebury College. It’s a survey that looks at the factors that make a particular baseball game great. We are trying to get as many responses as possible. We have about 260 right now. It just takes about 10 minutes and will get you thinking.

The URL is below

http://middlebury.keysurvey2.com/f/552767/2830/

If the link, doesn’t work, just paste it into your browser.

If you have any questions, feel free to email Matt Kimble at mkimble@middlebury.edu. Also send an email to Matt Kimble if you are interested in getting a summary of the results sometime in February.

Thanks,

In just a few months Masahiro Tanaka is very likely to throw his first pitch in the major leagues. Hopefully, he will do so as a very wealthy member of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

If you’re reading this post, you probably have some interest in how Tanaka will perform.

A lot of people who know a lot more about baseball, Tanaka, and statistics have tried to answer this question. But, I’m going to throw in my two Yen anyway.

To my count there have been seven starting pitchers who have transitioned from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball since 2007. A pretty arbitrary date that leaves out guys like Kaz Ishii, Hideki Irabu, Masato Yoshii and Hideo Nomo. I chose 2007 because between Ishii in 2002 and Dice-K and Igawa in 2007 there weren’t any starters that came from Japan that made regular starts and that five-year gap made for a convenient, if nothing else, endpoint.

The pitchers that I included in the study were: Yu Darvish, Hisashi Iwakuma, Hisanori Takahashi, Kenshin Kawakami, Hiroki Kuroda, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Kei Igawa.

While gazing upon the stats of these pitchers I noticed that, for the most part, they were able to maintain their strikeout rates after moving to the MLB. I also noticed that most had a significant increase in walk rate.

Looking at the pitchers’ last three years in the NPB and first two season in the MLB:

Overall the pitchers in the NPB K’d 22.7% of hitters and 21.4% in the MLB while walking 6.1% in the NPB and 9.5% in the MLB. Most of the pitchers in the sample followed this pattern of similar K rates and increased BB rates. The correlation between the K%’s had an r-squared of .37 and the BB%’s had an r-squared of .32.

This lead me to kwERA. kwERA uses only walks and strikeouts to project ERA. The formula is quite simple: 5.40 – 12*((K-BB)/PA).

There’s some problem with this. kwERA uses a constant (5.40) instead of a factor that changes each year. I could have found that constant, but didn’t. The correlation between K% and BB% isn’t THAT strong. But, it is what it is.

The kwERA for the combined K% and BB% of all the pitchers in the sample for their last three NPB seasons was 3.38. Their kwERA for their first two seasons in the MLB was 3.83. That’s an increase of .46 runs or 14%.

Next, I calculated Tanaka’s kwERA for his last three NPB seasons. It came out to 2.81 (24.9% K-rate and 3.3% BB-rate). Adding .46 runs to that gives an expected MLB ERA of (2.81 + 0.46) 3.27. Increasing his kwERA by 14% gives an expected MLB ERA of (2.81 * 1.14) 3.19. I then averaged these to get an expected MLB ERA of about 3.23.

I went back and looked at how well this expected kwERA compared to how the pitchers actually performed in their first two MLB seasons. I did this by comparing the average of adding 0.46 to the expected kwERA and increasing expected kwERA by 14% (xkwERA) to the average of the pitchers’ ERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA over their first 2 MLB seasons (EXFS AVG).

By far the biggest miss was Igawa. His MLB struggles are well documented. Also this method could not have accounted for Iwakuma performing better in the MLB than he did in the NPB. The other cases are within around half of a run difference.

If Tanaka signs with the Dodgers and pitches to something like 3.23 earned runs allowed I’ll be ecstatic.

Comments, criticisms, suggestions all welcomed.