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Pick by Pick (#1-#32, 2006-2010)

There is always a lot of talk about the AL being better and the interleague record usually supports that, but this year it seems to be especially severe. The AL is once again dominating IL play and there might be some scheduling and market-size reasons for this, but also when looking at other factors the AL seems to be much better.

The number of very bad teams:

KC and Oakland have been quite bad, but still the three worst records belong to NL teams.  If you look at below .450 teams you have only the two mentioned teams in the AL, but six teams in the NL.  And that is with the Brewers as one total rebuild team actually over-performing. If you look at the teams that even try to compete you have the Braves, Padres, Phillies, Reds and Brewers as full rebuilders while in the in the AL only the White Sox are fully committed to rebuilding. Now you could say that the A’s and Royals should do a full rebuild but the same could be said for the Marlins. However you slice it, there are way more non-competitive teams in the NL than in the AL.

The WC Contenders:

There is a weak division too in the AL with the West, but there are still at least five somewhat credible WC contenders including all AL East teams and probably one of the Twins or Tigers.

In the NL that field has been thinned out to the Cards and the two overperforming West teams (although the Cards, like the Tigers and Twins, are basically projected as .500 teams now).

Now the Dodgers and Nats are really good but even the third supposedly great team, the Cubs, has been mediocre, albeit they should win the division rather easily considering the abysmal state of their division.

Overall the AL seems to be in a much better state as both the East and the Central division of the NL are in a really bad state.

There is hope of course as the Braves,  Brewers, Phillies and even Padres have some good young players and minor league prospects and the Reds have some big league success with position players that were somewhat unlikely prospects, but all of those teams still have ways to go.

Read the rest of this entry »

Early on in what has been another exciting MLB season, we have been introduced to many new players, all while having the privilege of seeing some old ones as well.  Over the course of the last two months, we have been introduced to some breakout performers like Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Michael Conforto of the Mets.  Along with them, there have been a few players that haven’t lived up to their previous performances, like Matt Harvey of the Mets and Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies (written up wonderfully here).  I will illuminate five cases of players exceeding expectations and five more of those falling short.  Along with that there will be an investigation on whether that performance could be sustainable long term.  Hopefully you can use some of this to learn more about some exiting major leaguers and glean some insights for your fantasy team!

For explanations for any of the stats below, look to http://www.fangraphs.com/library

5 Overperformers

Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins 3B/DH

Relevant Statistics: .299/.408/.592, 13 HR, 41 RBI, 2.6 fWAR

One of the most dramatic over-performers of the new season is the massive man manning the hot corner in the Twin Cities.  The 6’4 260 lb. 24-year-old is absolutely tearing the cover off the ball and has fueled the Twins to a AL Central leading 28-24 record.  Sano is currently in seventh place on the leaderboard for fWAR (the FanGraphs version of Wins Above Replacement), already amassing a career high 2.6.  Driving this success is both his bat and his glove.  Sano is hitting for a 165 wRC+, signifying that his offense has been worth 65% more runs than league average (for more explanation on this stat look here).  Also, the young slugger’s glove work is behind his improvement.  In previous seasons, Sano has proven to be an average fielder, using his strong arm to make plays that many others could not, yet also losing nearly seven runs of value from errors. This year however, Sano has improved his defensive play, increasing his fielding percentage from .896 to .959.

Sustainability:

Sano has long been known for his prodigious power and strong arm.  Despite a down year in 2016, many were still high on his batting ability based on past performance.

Here is his prospect writeup from John Sickels of minorleagueball.com in 2014:

Power-mashing beast, comparable to a young Miguel Cabrera. He may not hit for the high averages that the mature Cabrera has produced, but power should be similar. Sano has made a lot of progress with the glove and a move to first base is not automatic.

Being compared to Miguel Cabrera is impressive for any hitter, let alone a minor leaguer like Sano was in 2014.  Sano was a consensus top ten prospect in baseball.  There are a few warning signs that some aspects of Sano’s play may slip, such as his .464 batting average on balls in play, while the MLB average hovers around .300.  He also has had very shaky defense in the past, and his rapid ascent into the top ten defensive third baseman could be taken with a grain of salt.  However, Sano hits the ball harder and more consistently than just about anyone, and he walks enough (15.5% BB) to mitigate some of the risk inherent with his absurd strikeout rate (37.4% K). He easily leads the majors with a 51.6% hard hit percentage, and a 98.7 mph average exit velocity, which both demonstrate that Sano is achieving insane consistency and power when putting bat to ball.

Verdict:

Look out for this young fella.  If you tune into a Twins game in the near future, do not be surprised if you see Sano send a ball into orbit.  Expect him to take pleasure in ruining ERAs for years to come.

Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks SP

Relevant Statistics: 69.0 IP, 5-3, 3.00 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 1.7 fWAR

Robbie Ray has been one of the most frustratingly inconsistent starters in recent memory.  Blessed with a fastball that can run up to 98 mph, and a slider that sits around 83 that accumulates a 40% strikeout rate and 20% swinging strike percentage, Ray has all the tools to be a dominant starter.  Last year, he dazzled with his outings against the Marlins on June 12th (7.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1BB, 6K), and the Padres on August 20th (7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 13 K, 1 BB).  He also had a few meltdowns, allowing 5 runs in three innings on April 24th to the Pirates and another 5 runs in 4.2 innings against the Padres on May 27th.  Ray has seemingly made adjustments, and is pitching like an ace this season.  He is top 12 in the majors among starters in fWAR and is sitting in sixth place in strikeouts per nine innings (10.96).  He has managed to avoid too many blowups and produced one of the most impressive starts of the season on May 30.  He spun a complete game shutout of the Pirates while only allowing four hits, no walks, and ten strikeouts.

Sustainability:

First, lets look at the issues that led to Ray’s disappointing performance (4.90 ERA) in 2016.  First off, he calls Chase Field home. Known as an extreme hitters park, Chase ranked third from the bottom for pitchers when considering the whole major leagues, behind only noted hitting havens Coors and Fenway.  Ray also led the majors in batting average on balls in play allowed.  Again, where the major league average is around .300, Ray’s was at .352, indicating a bit of bad luck.  He was no doubt hurt by the injury to his rangy center fielder A.J. Pollack.  Finally, Ray issued too many free passes, in the bottom ten among qualified starters in BB%.  This year, Ray once again has Pollack manning center, and his BABIP has plummeted nearly 100 points to .252.  Meanwhile, his strikeouts are marginally down, while his walks are up.  This points to Ray maybe getting a bit more lucky this year, or at least regressing to the median, and this stands while looking at his left on base rates.  Ray has allowed a much lower percentage runners to score after reaching base compared to last year.

Verdict:

Ray still calls the desert his home, and will always have a challenging home park. Considering his penchant for striking out or walking seemingly every batter he faces, expect Ray to continue to be challenging into the future, with a few dud outings and a few masterpieces.

Zach Cozart, Cincinnati Reds SS

Relevant statistics: .335/.423/.574, 7 HR, 5 Defensive Runs Saved, 2.7 fWAR

Notice my surprise the other day, when I was browsing the WAR leaderboards on FanGraphs and saw who was in third place.  I was so astounded I sent a tweet to High Heat Stats (awesome account by the way, well worth the follow).  Please ignore the misspelling of the player’s name, I was excited!

This was my inspiration for this whole article.  For years, the only thing you heard when hearing about Zach Cozart was how mediocre he was.  It was simply incredible that such an unremarkable performer had ascended to such heights.  Under the surface though, Cozart has been making improvements for years.  First off, Cozart has always been a great fielder, peaking at 19 defensive runs saved in 2014.  After being a slap hitter for many years, Cozart has increased his isolated power from .079 in 2013 all the way to .239 here in 2017.  He also has gone from a career 5.9% BB to 13.9% BB this year.

Sustainability:

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but everything in Cozart’s profile screams regression to something more like last years numbers.  His average exit velocity is about three miles per hour below the MLB average.  He has not dramatically increased his fly ball percentage or pull percentage, both indicators of swing transformations that can lead to increased power.   Zach Cozart is riding what seems to be a wave of good fortune to a batting line 61% better than league average.  I say these things, and as I am writing this article I have been tuned in to the Reds game, where he has hit another two home runs, and a triple to boot!  I’m already starting to regret this.

Verdict:

All signs point to Cozart slowing down here in the near future.  Despite this, Cozart remains a solid performer who the Reds may ship off at the trade deadline for some young talent to build around.

Jason Vargas, Kansas City Royals SP

Relevant Statistics: 69.1 IP, 7-3, 2.08 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 1.8 fWAR

Jason Vargas is one of the most puzzling players of 2017.  He was last seen prominently in 2015 pitching for the Royals in the regular season leading up to their World Series winning playoff run.  However, Vargas needed Tommy John surgery during the season, and along with the playoffs missed the entire 2016 season sans 12 innings.  Vargas, a 34 year old lefty, has never been anything close to an ace.  However, through a third of the MLB season, he is only trailing Dallas Keuchel of the Astros in ERA.  Call me crazy, but I never saw a breakout coming from a 34 year old coming off of Tommy John surgery that has never shown anything like this in his career.

Sustainability:

Vargas may have made some improvements, but there is no way that he continues to dominate major league hitting like this over the course of the year.  First, I’ll go over the improvements.  He is striking out an extra batter every nine innings over his career rate, and issuing .5 less walks.  He also is leaning on his changeup that is striking out batters over 30% of the time.  However, he is not inducing ground balls at an increased rate, and his overall swinging strike percentage outside his changeup (24%) is dismal.  His fielding-independent pitching indicates that his ERA should be around a run higher.  His BABIP is at .278, which is a bit low.  Vargas appears to be getting a bit lucky this year, but also seems to have improved a bit too.

Verdict: While Vargas may have made improvements on the player he was early on in his career, he also seems to be a bit lucky this year, benefiting from a home stadium that is kind to pitchers and some grace from the baseball gods.  I doubt Vargas will continue to run an ERA in the low 2’s.

Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals 3B

Relevant Statistics: .368/.416/.695, 15 HR, 45 RBI, 2.1 fWAR

Ryan Zimmerman was once the face of the Washington Nationals.  Before their youth movement started and the #1 overall picks started rolling in, he was a rock for a new team.  In recent years however, Zimmerman has declined, finally bottoming out at -1.3 fWAR last year, signifying he was far worse than an average replacement player. Zimmerman has been on a tear this year however, capturing NL player of the month for April and hitting as many long balls as he did last year.  Zimmerman is one of the driving forces on one of the best offenses in baseball, and has a ton of RBI opportunities with former MVP Bryce Harper hitting in front of him.  Thus far, he has put up an offensive line 89% better than league average this season!

Sustainability:

Zimmerman is yet another MLB player who has undergone a significant swing change that has seemingly overnight turned him back into a slugger.  In 2016, Zimmerman just hit the ball on the ground too much, and in 2017 has reduced that percentage by 7%.  His average exit velocity was always high, so putting the ball into the air has maximized the damage that he can do with his prodigious power.  Zimmerman has a unsustainably high .404 BABIP, and that will fall back to earth, but he should remain a great hitter.

Verdict:

Zimmerman should no longer be the awful drag on the franchise that he was in 2016, yet going forward may suffer some regression to the mean. He should however be a dynamic cog in the Nationals lineup for the rest of the year, and remain an above average player.

5 Underperformers

Maikel Franco, Philadelphia Phillies 3B

Relevant Statistics: .223/.277/.359, 6 HR, 28 RBI, -.3 fWAR

Franco, like Sano, was also a top 3B prospect in 2014, usually falling in the top 30 or so prospects on most lists.

Here is John Sickel’s writeup of Franco that year:

Posted .926 OPS in Double-A at age 20 with a low strikeout rate, 31 homers on the season, 36 doubles with just 70 whiffs in 581 PA. Despite impeccable performance at young age, some observers still critique his swing and overall approach. Usually serious swing problems show up with an elevated strikeout rate and/or serious production slippage in the high minors, but so far that hasn’t occurred. We’ll see what happens in Triple-A, but overall I can’t see how Franco is anything but an elite prospect.

Franco is not trending well across the last three seasons.  His wRC+ has gone from 129, to 92, to 67.  He is now firmly a below average hitter this season.  His average is down to .223, and he on base percentage is only .277.  His exit velocity is still far above the MLB average, so he is still hitting the ball with authority.  Franco has been a disappointment, and as his prospect sheen wears off he will need to start to play better to stay in the long term plans of the Phillies front office.

Sustainability:

Franco seems like one of those players, like Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Donaldson, and J.D. Martinez, that would benefit from a swing change.  His fly ball percentage is low and he hits to many balls on the ground.  His BABIP is extremely low right now, so he could creep back to an average hitting line with a dynamic hitting line with a bit of luck.  Alex Stumpf wrote a great piece about Franco’s struggles with sliders here, and iterated that Franco has a lot of developing still to do.  The projections seem to still hold Franco in high esteem, with ZiPS being the low man and still projecting a +.9 fWAR rest of season performance.

Verdict:

Franco may never live up to his high prospect billing, and has a few steps he should take to return to being an above average hitter.  Expect this to take time, and his numbers the rest of the year may not be what many expected coming into the season.

Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves SP

Relevant Statistics: 61.2 IP, 4-4, 4.82 ERA, 5.51 FIP, -.2 fWAR

Before diving into Julio Teheran and the next guy, Jose Quintana, I would encourage anyone to read this, which is an article that delves into why Quintana has been the pitched credited with more fWAR over the years.  Teheran has always been someone with much better results than the underlying numbers dictate.  This can be attributed to many things, but overall Teheran has a career ERA of 3.49 and a career FIP of 3.97.  Things have fallen apart for Teheran this season, attributable to his BB/9 jumping up nearly two walks and his K/9 falling by over a strikeout.  FIP sees Teheran as someone deserving of a 5.5 ERA thus far, and Teheran has compiled -.2 fWAR and has had his worst season to date.

Sustainability:

Teheran has always been a man on the edge, outperforming his peripherals for the bulk of his career.  His fastball velocity is down almost a full mile per hour, and is he is striking out less batters and walking more than he has in recent years.  His skills seem to be demonstrably eroding, and he will need to make some sort of change to get back to his normal self.  This does not seem to be a slump, and the only thing that could be attributed to luck is his 14% HR/FB rate that has his HR/9 at a career high 1.75.

Verdict:

Teheran is a pitcher that seems to be regressing. He is still over-performing his fielding independent numbers and may be someone that the braves may not be able to rely on to be a part of their core long term.

Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox SP

Relevant Statistics: 64.1 IP, 2-7, 5.60 ERA, 4.28 FIP, .9 fWAR

Quintana is the opposite side of the coin from Teheran.  He has never been someone to consistently over-perform his fielding independent numbers.  He pitches in a tough park, and has been notorious for racking up low win totals despite his efforts, in part due to languid offensive support.  Quintana has struggled this year, because of an increased walk rate (up to 3.36 in 2017 after 2.16 in 2016), and a sky high HR/9 rate (1.40, up from .95 last year).  He still is not getting his wins or racking up insane strikeout numbers either, and many outside the organization are pondering whether or not the White Sox should have sold high this summer on someone that is having a down year.

Sustainability:

To me, all signs point to Quintana bouncing back.  If he could get his homers and walks under control, he could once again establish himself as an above average option.  His velocity hasn’t plummeted, the projections are all still supporting him, and his BABIP is slightly higher than his career average.

Verdict:

If I had to guess, I would say that Quintana moves back into the role of an under appreciated quality option.  All the trade rumors this summer made the general public more aware of his quiet performance, and this may be enough for him to stay toiling in Guaranteed Rate Field a year longer.

Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers 1B

Relevant Statistics: .262/.309/.356, 1 HR, 21 RBI, -.5 fWAR

Adrian Gonzalez was once an incredible player, posting a 6.1 fWAR season and racking up over 1100 career RBIs.  Yet Gonzalez has been dismal this season, posting an 80 wRC+ and being completely pushed out of the Dodgers long term plans by a certain someone. Gonzalez has also gone on the DL this year, part of the Dodgers plan so seemingly stick half of their roster on there at once.  Gonzalez is hitting for almost no power, as his .094 isolated power demonstrates.

Sustainability:

You would think someone hitting this poorly after such a storied career would have a low BABIP.  Nope, Gonzalez has a BABIP of .311, above the MLB average.  His average exit velocity is slightly higher than the MLB average, but there is not a lot of promise in Gonzalez’ profile.  His walk rate has never been this low in a full season.  His ground ball rate is above his career average, and his fly ball rate is below his career average.

Verdict:

Time catches up to all of us, and sometimes rookies that turn Dodger Stadium into launching pads do too.  Gonzalez will eventually be phased out of the Dodgers 1st base pecking order.  It seems I am more down on him than anyone else on this list.

Johnathan Villar, Milwaukee Brewers 2B

Relevant Statistics: .210/.284/.319, 5 HR, 24 RBI, -.5 fWAR

Villar was a godsend to fantasy teams across America last year, as his 62 stolen bases paced the majors.  However, Villar has gone from a 118 wRC+ in 2016 to a 59 wRC+ in 2017.  In 2016 he found his power stroke, but his ISO has dropped precipitously in 2017. His baserunning value was always overstated by his steals totals, but has already accumulated more than half of last year’s value on the bases this year, so that does not seem to be the problem.  Villar was expected to be a top fantasy option this year, and has thus far been an enormous disappointment.

Sustainability:

Villar’s regression seems to be completely tied to his bat.  His defense and base running are actually both improved on a rate basis from last year, impressive considering a position change.  With both his walk rate up, his strikeouts down, and his power down, the general trend is not positive.  His ground ball percentage is up around 8%, and his fly balls are down.  It seems like Villar is going against the changes being implemented in the league as a whole, and it is not going to well for him.

Verdict:

While Villar will always be good for some swipes, he has not done anything this year to indicate that his monster 2016 was anything but a flash in the pan.  If I were in a fantasy league, I would sell while he has some semblance of fantasy value.

Thanks for reading!  If you have any criticisms or , email me at stanonaj@miamioh.edu or contact me on twitter @Stanonis_

*all stats from fangraphs.com, updated as of June 4, 2017

*Average exit velocity courtesy of MLB’s Statcast

*All photos courtesy of Getty Images

Originally, this article was posted to a website that one of my friends made so we have an outlet for some of our thoughts on sports.  The original link is here.  This is the reason for some of the explanations on statistics that an average FanGraphs reader already knows.

Since lowering the hands was often a topic the last few months, I wanted to look at what the best hitters actually do. For that purpose I’m looking at the so-called “launch position” around front toe touch, and not the stance, since many batters will start to lower and then load up during the stride (David Ortiz or Josh Donaldson), while a few start higher and then load down (Kris Bryant).

As a reference, I used the top of the shoulders and the highest finger on the handle. As a marker for the gap, I use barrel diameter, which is about 2 1/2 inch with wood bats.

Standard height I consider top of the shoulder plus/minus one barrel diameter, and low or high is more than one barrel diameter away from that (it is arbitrary but I have to chose some cutoff). I used shoulder high because that is a common teaching by many hitting coaches.

The hitters are the 2016 wRC+ leaders.

Mike Trout

His hands are borderline between standard and high. I have measured a tick more than one barrel diameter so I will group him in the high category. He is like Bryant also, one of the quite passive and early hand load guys and not a big “rubber band guy” like Donaldson who loads the hands very late to create a lot of stretch. That might be biomechanically slightly less efficient due to the stretch shortening cycle, but it is simple and not much can go wrong, plus he is explosive enough to leave a little on the table

David Ortiz

Very different load from Trout, as he lowers his hands and then loads them late as the lower body already opens. His hands even continue to go up as the elbow starts to lower, creating a ton of stretch. That is the modern Donaldson style of load that might be the biomechanically most efficient due to the best use of stretch shortening cycle. In the modern internet hitting coach circles, this is the most popular load right now, made popular by Bobby Tewksbary, who worked with Donaldson and many other pros. Almost all pros who have lowered their hands have some kind of connection to Bobby (Lamb, Pollock…). Overall his hands end up in a standard height at toe touch.

Joey Votto

More conservative load than Ortiz, although there is a little bit of lift during the load from below shoulder height. Overall his toe touch height is standard.

Daniel Murphy

Very quiet and conservative load that ends at a standard height.

JD

Same load style as Ortiz, ends at standard height.

Miggy

Donaldson loading style light. Hands end up on the low side.

Freddie Freeman

Tried to find his “new swing.” Hard to find a good one but he seems to be on the low side.

Altuve

Definitely on the high side

Kris Bryant

Load is a little like Trout; starts high and then drops to about standard.

Cruz

Not much of a load at all, if anything a very slight drop. Still ends up slightly high but not by much.

Rizzo

Starts low but ends up standard.

JD Martinez

Slight upward load to slightly high.

Belt

Small load to about standard height.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5iR2PPjv7E

Cano

Small and early load slightly on the low side.

C. Seager

Classic standard load to standard height.

Carpenter

Hard to find a good shot but might be a little on the low side.

Betts

Slightly on the high side.

EE

Simple load to very slightly high.

Cespedes

One of the few very high guys as his hands start about ear to eye height.

Goldschmidt

Very small drop load to about standard height.

This is the top 20 in wRC+ last season. Seven of the guys were on the high side, 9 were on the standard side and 4 were on the low side below shoulder height. But overall most ended up somewhere around shoulder level at toe touch. It might be an advantage to not go very high as only Cespedes made the top 20 with an ear-level high load, but lower than shoulder high is not common either.

In my opinion, the whole lower-the-hands thing is mostly a pre-stride thing. Even Jake Lamb, who is the poster boy for low hands, starts low but then loads up to around shoulder height. Now there might be a biomechanical advantage to dropping the hands and then loading up late. I know Bobby Tewksbary from many hitting forum discussions when he still posted there, and I also recommend getting his excellent ebook if you are into hitting, but I’m not sure if that whole low-hands thing isn’t a little overblown. The Donaldson style of load with the lowering and the barrel tip is now really en vogue and anyone promotes it on the internet now, but the 2016 MVPs Bryant and Trout both don’t do it. It might very well not be quite 100% perfect what Trout and Bryant do there, and they are definitely both freak athletes, but it works well enough for them. I would definitely have young hitters experiment with the JD style to see if it is for them but it isn’t as much of an absolute as many people now try to sell it.

Some hitters did lower their hands in their stance and it worked for them, but others did not and they still hit very well. In either case, both will still load up to around shoulder height. The hands definitely do not start “on plane;” the hands and bat always will start down before they level out and then go slightly up through contact.

Here is Miggy’s hand path to illustrate that:

His hands do start low, but still his hands and bat start to arc down and then level out and turn up.  Basically the swing is like the sign of a famous shoe company, first arcing down behind the body and then going up through contact.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ehs-H2V6N5o

A lot of talk this offseason was about how HRs became cheap and sluggers are not getting paid. Two teams that adapted to that really quickly were the A’s and Rays. Just a couple years ago, the A’s and Rays both were no-power teams that mostly tried to compete with pitching, and, in the Rays’ case, great defense.

As of today (May 30th) the Rays and A’s are first and fourth in HR in the majors despite playing in not the most hitting-friendly parks.

They are also first (OAK) and ninth (TB) in average team launch angle, so they are probably either trying to acquire or teach launch angle.

They both strike out a ton (Rays are first in K% and A’s are fourth) but overall, offensively, it kind of works for them. The Rays are fifth in wRC+ and the A’s are eighth, which is not bad, given their financial constraints.

Where they are paying is defense. The Rays at least have a good OF compensating for their terrible IF, but they are still just 22nd in the defensive rating at the FanGraphs leaderboard. With the A’s it gets really ugly; they are dead last in defense and basically terrible in almost all of their positions.

For the Rays, it seems to work overall, as they are third in position-player WAR, and they also had some Pythagorean bad luck, but the A’s are just 22nd in position-player WAR, so they might have taken it too far.

Overall, the Rays and A’s still follow the trends and act quickly, but finding a bargain is harder and harder. Teams now have a good concept of value and if you find a bargain somewhere, you usually have to pay a price somewhere else.

Probably, it is still good that they try it. They need to gamble on upside and a balanced team is probably not the way to go. It is hard to say how much they gained, but launch angle and homers probably was a slight market inefficiency and they both went to it quickly.

What I found interesting were the Dodgers. Overall, they are a very good team, but they are not hitting homers and their launch angle is one of the worst in the majors (22nd). I thought as a sabermetrically-inclined team with a former Rays FO, they would try to close that hole, but then again they already were really good and can afford to lose some value. Also, the Dodgers team is much more expensive, so a super fast re-structuring of the team like the A’s and Rays did is not really feasible. An expensive team is not as flexible as a team full of pre-arb and early arbitration players and can’t react to a changed market as quickly.

It will be interesting how they develop in the next years. Will they slowly try to increase LA and power while trying to keep their strengths? Or will they sacrifice some defense and contact like the Rays and A’s did?

It will also be interesting if the Rays and A’s stick with it. Power will probably get slightly more expensive again, but I don’t expect the price to explode because the success of the A’s and Rays has been moderate and now teams mostly go by overall value. What teams certainly want to try is to teach elevating to their young players so they can get power without a big trade-off. Players with power and defense will always be sought after, and not be available as a bargain, so being able to teach LA to defensively good prospects could be a market inefficiency, but that is of course not easy to do.

Prior to the 2016 trade-deadline acquisition of Andrew Miller, the Indians had a strong bullpen. Dan Otero was in the midst of a terrific year and was arguably a top-10 reliever in baseball. Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw and Zach McAllister compiled a strong relief core that was a huge strength for the American League Champion. They finished the season 7^th in the league in total WAR at 5.0, aided by Andrew Miller’s 1.1. Miller instantly added a new dynamic to the bullpen and the Indians were able to ride them through all the way to Game 7 of the World Series. Ever since then, Cleveland’s relievers have been nearly unhittable.

Up until May 21, just before the Indians and Reds series began, the Tribe bullpen was spotting an ERA of 1.97 through 146 innings, which was first in the league with a .184 batting average against and a .248 opponent wOBA. As a unit they had converted all 18 save opportunities they had been given, never relinquishing a lead from the 7^th inning on.

The Indians’ opponent for the next three days happened to be the Cincinnati Reds, who, believe it or not, currently lead the majors in WAR for position players, while also sitting 5^th in OBP, 5^th in SLG and 6^th in wOBA. They have four players with double-digit home-run totals, the only team in the league that can boast that. Zack Cozart leads all shortstops in AVG, OBP, SLG, wRC+ and WAR. They also have a former MVP who is slashing .351/.510/.608/.1.118 for the month of May. While they might not be on everyone’s radar, this offense has been one of the league’s best so far in 2017.

The Reds hitters showed they are the real deal in the battle of Ohio, particularly against the very stingy Cleveland bullpen. In 7.1 innings in three games against the Reds, the Indians’ pen allowed 5 earned runs and gave up 10 hits and 2 walks while striking out 8. It’s not the worst line for a three-game stretch by any means, but given their performance prior to this series it can certainly be classified as surprising. All of the run-scoring damage took place during two at-bats: Eugenio Suarez’s game-tying home run against Bryan Shaw and Zack Cozart’s go-ahead single against Cody Allen.

Suarez’s home-run in the bottom of the 7^th inning took the Reds’ chances of winning from 18.4% to 55%, easily the most impactful play in terms of WPA for each player this season. While the Indians ended up coming out on top, it was still the first blown save for the Indians this year.

Cozart’s 9^th inning, go-ahead single the following night would prove even more significant as it came in the Reds’ final out of the game and added a whopping .648 to their win probability. It quickly became the second blown save in as many nights and ultimately resulted in a Reds win. The one caveat about this play is that Billy Hamilton’s speed had quite a significant impact. He may be the only player in the league that scores from first base in that scenario, which greatly affected the WPA for both Cozart and Allen. Nonetheless, Allen still got pegged for a loss in his worst outing of the year so far.

Going forward, this series will mostly likely come to be insignificant for the Indians. Andrew Miller still turned in dominant performances and Shaw and Allen are likely to remain the strong, reliable setup men they have proven to be. For the Reds, this series is more evidence that the lineup is up and down very much improved from last year, when they posted 15.4 WAR (they are currently at 10.1 in 2017) and an 89 wRC+. With Joey Votto continuing to put himself in the discussion at the best hitter in the game and a young group of players eager to prove themselves, this Reds offense could manage to surprise some more people down the stretch.

First, let me start with an excuse: I’m not able to pull launch-angle data from Statcast and thus I’m only using the data from MLB.com as of May 16th 2017 this year. I’m currently learning R for doing better analysis, so if anyone knows how to get a complete LA leaderboard, please let me know.

We all know the the best LA for a HR is around 28 degrees and a HR is the best result in baseball. But still, when looking at the leaderboards, the best guys are all around 13-15 degrees. I looked at the top 10 in wRC+ to date this year and the average was 15.7 +/- 3.9. Looking at BABIP, the average was 13.6 +/- 4.0 (admittedly there is a lot of noise in BABIP at this point of the year) and in ISO the average was 16.4 +/- 4.9. That gives a small hint that BABIP peaks lower than ISO.

This chart supports that.

According to those data, BA peaks between 10 – 14 degrees, while slugging peaks much higher.

But there are also other factors why so far in MLB the best LA is around 15 degrees. According to Alan Nathan, the average fastball, depending on pitch height and velo, goes downward around 5 – 10 degrees.

That means the optimum swing for making contact goes upward 5 – 10 degrees. If you want more lift, you either need to hit under the ball more, which decreases EV, or you have to swing up more, but that means you are in the hitting zone for a shorter time, probably costing you some contact. Some sluggers will go above that, but then it comes at a cost.

And then there is the factor of EV sensitivity. Around 8 – 15 degrees the BABIP is not very sensitive to EV; most balls between 80 and 100 MPH will be hits. At 20 – 25 degrees that is very different; we are seeing that donut hole where you get the bloopers at 75 to low 80s and mostly outs mid 85s to low 90s, and then again HRs in the high 90s. Not every ball will be hit hard, so at lower LAs you get more out of your softly-hit balls.

And lastly, the LAs will be distributed on a Bell curve.

It doesn’t seem like players are able to consistently hit under the ball. That means if your average LA would be 28 degrees, basically half of your batted balls would be useless fly outs above 30 degrees, while if you peak at 15, most of your well-hit balls will fall in the useful 10 – 30 range. That also explains why EV peaks around 10 degrees — that is where the attack angle and exit angle match, and thus balls are hit on the screws while HRs tend to be a couple MPH slower than the hardest-hit balls (and many of the 110+ HRs are hit around 20-25 and not 30+).

Practically, that means that every player with a swing attack angle of below 10 degrees could benefit from swinging up more without any cost for consistency. Swinging up like 10 – 12 degrees means you get some lift and good contact. In fact, at plus 10 degrees, you are longer in the zone than at a completely level swing, plus your BABIP at 10 is better than at 0 degrees.

But above that, it gets more tricky, because slugging goes up but BABIP and contact can go down. For certain hitters with low contact and high EV profiles, it might make sense to swing up at up to plus 20 degrees to maximize whatever contact they get, but it will make the profile more extreme. The swing revolution is a good thing, but above 15 degrees many hitters might reach a point of diminishing returns when they try to elevate more.

Thus I think we will see more elevation of the launch angle. The average LA of MLB is now just below 13 degrees, which is well higher than the last two years (I think it used to be around 11 degrees), and I could see it go up to 15, but then I think the end of the line is reached. I think we are quite close to seeing the LA optimized in MLB. There always will be players who benefit from more, but there is a limit.

I think guys like Joey Gallo might benefit from going to 20+ but Trout and Harper are basically average in their LAs; they get enough elevated balls with their LA profile to hit 30+ homers and still have a high BABIP. I think the best all-around hitters/sluggers will stay between 13 and 15; it is only the below-10 guys that will slowly adapt or die. Guys like Ryan Schimpf will never become the norm. When many players were chopping wood, almost anyone could benefit from swinging up more, but a point of diminishing returns might be reached soon.

On Sunday, the Astros were forced to play a double-header at Yankee Stadium after a rain-out on Saturday afternoon. In the first game, they scored six runs by way of nine singles and five walks, recording no extra-base hits. In the second, they amounted 10 runs, on nine hits again, but with five extra-base hits, including four home runs. After ending the second game late, they traveled to Miami for their fifth road game in a row. And scored seven more runs, by way of home runs, base hits, and walks.

The Astros have the best record in the league at 27-12, and are being paced by a great offense along with good pitching. Most important to their offensive success, though, has been their incredible balance. Here is a table of how the Astros compare to the MLB average in some major offensive categories, along with their rank in parentheses:

They are hitting for average and power, all while striking out at a very low rate. And it’s not like they are struggling to draw walks, either, as they are still a middle-of-the-pack team in that regard.

The past two seasons, the Astros have blinded us with home runs and strikeouts. Guys like Chris Carter, Luis Valbuena, and Evan Gattis made the ‘Stros a hit-or-miss lineup, but the Astros have completely transformed their offensive profile.

In a league that is striking out more every season, the Astros have dropped their strikeout rate immensely from their 2015 – 16 rate to their 2017 rate. With a 4.8% decrease, they have lowered their strikeouts more than anyone else. The next-best is the Rays at 3.7%. Behind the Nationals, who have increased their 2017 average .029 from 2017, the Astros are second, with a .025 positive increase. They have done this while continuing to hit home runs, sitting at sixth in home-run rate in 2017.

The Astros added balance to their lineup with their offseason additions of Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, Nori Aoki, and Brian McCann. And now, the Astros are looking like a top-three offense in baseball, and perhaps like the league’s most complete.

Take a brief look at this leaderboard of the best seasons of all time, at least among position players. For those of you who like an easy reference without switching tabs or are too lazy to open up a link, here’s the part that you are going to look at.

Now your first thought is probably going to be something about how good Babe Ruth was. Ruth’s best season is 2 WAR higher than anything anyone else ever did. Babe Ruth’s fourth-best season is still better than anyone else’s first-best season. Not that those other three guys weren’t very good too, because they obviously were, but Ruth is clearly a step above the rest. But let’s add another column to that chart.

With the exception of Hornsby’s season — in which he hit .424 — all of these players had 40+ home runs. And 25 home runs isn’t too shabby. Hornsby was actually fourth in baseball in home runs that year. But really, this shouldn’t be much of a revelation. Home runs are the most productive thing a player can do in a single plate appearance. Hitting a lot of them is a good way to produce a lot of value.

As you might expect, we’re going to next look at the best seasons without much power. Specifically home-run power. I’m going to arbitrarily define 20 home runs as too much power for this next leaderboard. That’s about the threshold that people start to get considered home-run threats and it’s nice and round.

Well, the names aren’t quite as impressive as those on the first list, but they’re all in the Hall of Fame. And really, aside from Boudreau, all those guys are top 25 greatest position players of all time. Seven of the seasons are from the Deadball era when no one was hitting 20 home runs. Honus Wagner’s 10 dingers in 1908 was second in the league to the Superbas slugging first baseman Tim Jordan, who hit 12.

You’ll probably notice another pattern — most of these guys stole a ton of bases. Now this isn’t necessarily because stealing bases is such a valuable thing like home runs are — it’s more because guys stole a ton of bases in the most power-sapped era in baseball history. All the Deadball guys stole at least 50 bases, but we’re going to kick out all the guys who stole at least 20 — sorry, Joe Morgan.

Again, all these guys are Hall of Famers, but only Hornsby and Musial are really inner-circle guys. Hornsby and Musial actually had somewhat similar careers — both guys got their start in relatively low-power eras, but grew into their power as the ball livened up. While their career totals for home runs are astonishing to us now, they ranked 5th and 6th, respectively, in all-time home runs when they retired. It’s not really correct to call them no-power guys — more like guys who didn’t need power to beat you.

Going into this, I expected this list to be populated with slick fielders who had big offensive years. That description certainly fits Joe Gordon and Lou Boudreau. Total Zone says Gordon was a fantastic defender his entire career. That, combined with a BABIP spike in 1942, bumping up his typical 120 wRC+ to 152, sneaks him onto the list. For Boudreau, basically everything went right. he had career bests in home runs, BB%, K%, BABIP, AVG, OBP, SLG, ISO, and defense according to total zone. Oh, and he managed the Indians to a World Series victory.

Arky Vaughan was a shortstop, but Total Zone only considers his defense at that point to be serviceable. Instead, to make the list he hit .385/.491/.607, all of which were career highs. In fact, that .491 OBP is the best OBP since 1901 for players with less than 20 home runs.

Harry Heilmann was, well, definitively not a slick fielder. What he did do was crush everything that came his way, to the tune of .403/.481/.632. It was a phenomenal year, but it wasn’t the best that year, as Babe Ruth put up 6.8 more WAR than him.

And finally we come to Wade Boggs. While he might not rank that highly on the leaderboard there, he is the grand champion of the no power, no speed club. Not only does he have the only season there with single digits in both home runs and steals; he actually has the four best seasons with these parameters. In 1988, he put up 8.6 WAR, with only 5 home runs and 2 steals. Oh, and his defensive metrics that years are pretty average, so that’s all on contact, gap power, and walking.

Now, you’ve probably noticed that most of these seasons happened in the distant past. For all but the oldest of readers, Wade Boggs is probably the only guy on that last list that all y’all have seen in real time. What are the chances of seeing a season like these any time soon?

In 2016, the best season for a guy meeting both the power and speed thresholds was Francisco Lindor, who accumulated 6.3 WAR with 15 home runs and 19 steals. In order to make the top ten, he’d probably have to break at least one of those, if not both. That being said, Lindor making more contact and taking more pitches might be our best hope. Guys like Adam Eaton and Brandon Crawford — the next two guys down the list — probably aren’t good enough to hit 8 WAR. Guys like Dustin Pedroia and Buster Posey may have had the necessary skillset to pull it off, but it’s probably too late in their respective careers to put together an 8-WAR type of season anymore.

We’re probably not going to see a Wade Boggs-type season anytime soon — it’s just too hard to produce an incredible amount of value without hitting for home-run-type power or having the athletic ability to steal a ton of bases.  Appreciate weird players while they’re around.

Stating exactly what Luis Severino would be at the start of the season was a puzzle. He flashed such different versions of himself over the previous two years that there was no telling if he’d stick in the rotation or be relegated to the bullpen, whether because of his own lacking presence or a less deniable one among other in-house competition. But after six starts, he’s given us — and the Yankees — an emphatic answer.

Luis Severino is a starter. And maybe more.

We’re at the point where the basis for these numbers has largely become reliable for what we could expect moving forward. There are a couple key components. Austin Yamada explains how two-plane movement in Severino’s slider has been giving hitters fits. Matthew Mocarsky forecasted at the season’s start that Severino’s changeup could be critical to balancing his line drives and grounders, which is exactly what’s happened.

Pitches are rarely distributed dead equally. Acknowledging each one’s weighted value as if they were can provide a solid picture of just how much impact a certain pitch is having in a guy’s repertoire. And for Severino, his changeup has been crucial.

The caveat with weighted pitch values is how the amount thrown directly dictates how often a hitter has the chance to knock it around. Severino hasn’t thrown a ton of changeups and that certainly contributes to the offering’s weighted value. But the numbers suggest that when he has thrown it, he’s paced play with it.

We could wonder what would happen if he started throwing it just a little more and his fastball just a little less, but let’s zoom out. Let’s regard what Luis Severino is showing us in 2017 as his first well-planted foot in the majors. He’s already shown he can make adjustments, so let’s also consider he’s got one or two more in him that elevate his game.

What would that mean for the Yankees?

Severino could represent a home-grown anchor in their rotation, and that’s something they haven’t had in a long time. Chien-Ming Wang’s best work was a flash in the pan that wasn’t completely supported by his peripherals. Andy Pettitte was more impressive for his steadiness than his dominance. And before that? You’re going back to at least the 70s.

It would be interesting to see how the Yankees would approach Severino’s contract if he continues on his current course. They haven’t really been in a position to sign a young star to a sweetheart deal like, say, the Rays. They also have the financial wherewithal to not feel such pressure.

But the fact remains that he could be more important than any other player in their young core, and how they decide to go about keeping him in New York could have sizable implications for the franchise.

We can say it’s only six weeks into the 2017 season, but Luis Severino is a big reason the Yankees have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. And he’s a big reason it could stay that good, too.