To a casual baseball fan, Stephen Strasburg’s numbers are not pretty. The owner of a 4.76 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP, Strasburg is clearly having the worst season of his career. But how bad has he been, really? Not as bad as you think. Take a look at these 2015 stats:

Player A: 3.48 xFIP, 22.8 K%, 5.5 BB%
Player B: 3.31 xFIP, 24.1 K%, 5.3 BB%
Player C: 3.18 xFIP, 24.9 K%, 6.0 BB%

Player A is none other than Johny Cueto, recently traded to the Kansas City Royals. 12th in ERA among qualified pitchers, Cueto is widely considered among the best, and perhaps deservedly so with five straight years of a sub-3 ERA. While he has consistently outperformed the above metrics, they are still indicative of general pitcher performance and should not be overlooked when comparing the quality of different pitchers.

Player B actually has the fifth lowest ERA among qualified pitchers and was also traded at the deadline. He’s been one of the most reliable pitchers over the past five years and has been an ace on every staff for which he’s pitched. Player B is David Price.

Player C is obviously Stephen Strasburg, and as you can see, his peripheral stats stack up against the best in the game. In addition to these 2 players, Strasburg also compares positively to others like Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir, both of whom have better ERAs but a worse xFIP, K%, and BB%.  Strasburg is pitching like an ace, and xFIP shows that, so why have his results been so poor?

Well, first of all, there’s his .345 BABIP. Not only is this high compared to the league average (.296), it’s well above his career mark of .302. Considering he’s not giving up any more line drives or hard contact than usual, his BABIP should fall back to around the .300 mark and bring his ERA down with it.

Not only is his BABIP at an all-time high, his LOB% is at an all-time low. Currently at 65.3%, it figures to inch back up to his career 73.2% mark, or at least to the league average of 72.4%. Considering his strikeouts have not dropped off, there’s no reason for his drop on LOB%, and it can simply be chalked up to bad luck, something that he’s had plenty of this year.

Looking at these stats, there’s nothing that suggests Strasburg is anything but unlucky. However, as Jeff Sullivan pointed out here, Strasburg’s problem could stem from the injury he suffered in the spring. He had apparently adjusted his mechanics to compensate for the discomfort, and even though it appears as though he has fixed this, it’s possible that when pitching from the stretch and in higher leverage situations, he returns to this altered motion by default. When looking at the difference in Strasburg’s stats between pitching from the windup and the stretch, this is what we see:

Evidently, this claim has some ground. Strasburg is clearly having some problems with runners on base, particularly in striking batters out. Before we deal with the strikeout numbers, let’s take a look to make sure that he’s not just getting killed during the at bats that don’t end in strikeouts.

Strasburg is actually generating more ground balls and weaker contact with runners on base. His infield hit percentage is triple what it is when the bases are empty, something that can be attributed to luck. With such weak contact, it’s safe to say this isn’t the problem. So it must be the strikeouts. If we take a look at his whiff rates, the results are intriguing:

OK, so there’s definitely a problem here. With runners on base, he’s only whiffing batters at half the rate he’s done previously in his career, as well as half the rate that he does with the bases empty. So what’s the issue? Well, it’s not his pitch velocity:

I wish I knew why Jung-ho Kang and Ben Paulsen seem to get so little respect. It’s baffling. Regardless, people should be talking about these guys and their production — both have very legit numbers, yet few seem to have noticed. More to my point: fantasy baseball players should pick them up from the waiver wire ASAP. I mean, right this second.

Kang, recall, is the stud the Pirates signed from Korea. An unknown for the better part of the season, Kang is making his presence felt in the middle of the Pirates lineup, having just earned honors this July for NL Rookie of the Month. Kang, with dual SS/3B eligibility, is owned in just 57.9% of ESPN leagues and is slashing a highly productive .291/.365/.446 and, based on what he did in Korea, his .809 OPS could prove to be low in the long run.

Kang went through a bit of a power drought in June, but he caught fire in July. He’s now hitting .291 with 8 HR and 35 RBI. Consider that in the last week of July, Kang recorded multiple hits in five out of eight games with 6 R, 2 HR, and 3 RBI in that stretch. In his next game, on August 1, he hit his 8th home run of the season, a ball that traveled 412 feet. In 2014, Kang launched 40 home runs in 120 games in Korea, while also hitting .297. The kid can flat-out rake. With Jordy Mercer on the shelf (and not very good when healthy), Kang continues to occupy the 4–6 holes in Clint Hurdle’s lineup.

As many hitters have said before: As the summer heats up, so do they. I suspect we’re going to see Kang launch many more home runs before season’s end. If nothing else, even if the power is merely moderate, the fact that he hits for average, steals a few bases, and slots in the middle of a very potent Bucs lineup makes him worthy of a pickup in leagues of any size.

Ben Paulsen. What’s not to love about a guy who: 1) plays half his games at Coors Field; 2) made minor league pitching look like little league; 3) hits for both power and average; and 4) absolutely kills right-handed pitching? Answer: Nothing. His numbers aren’t dissimilar from those of Kang (in fact, they’re nearly identical), with a .300 average, 8 HR, and 34 RBI. His average is a bit buoyed by a .363 BABIP, though ZiPS projects a .333 BABIP the rest of the way. The only knocks against Paulsen are playing time and his ugly platoon splits, which are obviously related. But as with guys I’ve discussed before, who cares if he’s not an everyday starter; he’d just tank your average anyway. Instead, bench him against the few lefties he’s allowed to face, and you won’t be disappointed.

FanGraphs had this to say about him before the season started; it’s like these guys are clairvoyant or something. But they’re also very much wrong in the when they say that Paulsen’s game is made for just NL-only leagues. It’s much better than that (keep reading). Per FanGraphs:

The Quick Opinion: If Morneau starts the year on the disabled list as he recovers from knee surgery, Paulsen could be a sneaky short-term option in NL-only leagues, but that’s about it.

Paulsen, actually, is now effectively an everyday starter in the mercurial Walt Weiss’ lineup, thanks to the demotion of Wilin “Baby Bull” Rosario. Justin Morneau’s concussion symptoms are persisting, and he may have played his final game in the big leagues. Thus, the gig is Paulsen’s to lose, and with Corey Dickerson on the DL again, Paulsen has also been playing some corner outfield when called upon.

And when the 27-year old Paulsen is called upon, the numbers are a thing of beauty — against RHP, anyway, who he’s torturing to the tune of a .308/.361/.535 triple slash. Paulsen’s OPS of .896 isn’t just ‘productive,’ it’s downright fantastic. Frankly, it’s more than a little weird that just 19.7% of ESPN players own him. I’m happy to say I’m one of them, though I missed out on Kang, much to my dismay (and totally because of my stupidity).

There will be more blogs to follow, with similar themes in mind: finding value where there seemingly is none. There always is, you just have to look hard enough.

The last time Matt Shoemaker allowed more than two runs in an outing was June 19. Since then, he’s pitched 37 1/3 innings, allowing just seven earned runs. He has 35 strikeouts compared to just 11 walks, leading to a 2.88 FIP. He’s been even better when just isolating the numbers in his three starts since the All-Star break, with 27/6 K/BB and a 1.36 FIP, although, to be fair, that is an incredibly small sample. For comparison’s sake, his FIP through June 19 was 4.70.

So has there been a change in Shoemaker’s game, or has his streak been a fluke? Well, I wouldn’t be writing this if it was the latter, as I’m sure you could’ve guessed (although if you weren’t able to guess who the article was about after the first paragraph, perhaps I’m overestimating you). There’s been a significant change in the way Shoemaker has approached batters. Take a look at his pitch type chart through June 19, courtesy of Baseball Savant:

And then take a look at the data since then:

Through June 19, Shoemaker threw his fastball (four-seam and two-seam) 51.6% of the time. Since then, it’s been 56.9% of the time. Comparing these two proportions with a two-tailed Z test yields a p-value of .034, significant at the .05 level, showing that there has indeed been in a difference in the amount of fastballs he’s thrown.

Of course, throwing more fastballs doesn’t translate to a drop in FIP of over 3 points. That is, unless, those fastballs are of higher quality. And, class, what’s the most important aspect of a fastball? Hopefully you were at least able to guess this one: the velocity. Which, naturally, is the next thing I looked at.

Again, I used Baseball Savant’s PITCHf/x data. Narrowing the results to just fastballs, here are the velocities of Shoemaker’s pitches this year:

At the beginning of the season, Shoemaker’s average fastball velocity hovered right above 88 mph. Since then, it’s steadily risen, and there’s a clear jump about two-thirds of the way into the season (note that this time would be remarkably near June 19). After the jump, his average velocity has hung closer to the 92 mph range, further away from Jered Weaver status. FanGraphs data shows the same thing:

Note, this data also shows Shoemaker’s average velocity from 2014, when he had a 3.04 ERA and a 3.19 SIERA. This image confirms the steady increase in velocity of Shoemaker’s fastball, as it has recently resided at or even above its value from last year’s productive season. There have been clear results from this change, especially in the form of whiff rate, and predictably, strikeouts. Through June 19, Shoemaker’s whiff rate sat at a mediocre 10.5%.

Since the All-Star break, this is what that breakdown looks like:

You might notice that his whiff rate sits at 13.7%, which would be top-5 among starters if he managed it for an entire season. Now, I’m not naive enough to think that number is where is true value lies after just 3 games, but he’s certainly improved off his 10.2% mark he had earlier in the season.

I’m not suggesting Shoemaker is the next coming of Clayton Kershaw. I’m not even sure if he’s the best pitcher on his own staff. But one thing is for sure: Matt Shoemaker is throwing the ball harder than he has in the past, and it’s working. And while it may not continue at this level, there’s no reason it should stop.

Note: Norris has now signed with the Padres.

—

Hey, remember Bud Norris? The guy who was an opening day starter for the 2013 Astros (although that team lost 111 games, so that might not be something to brag about). He then was traded for prospect Josh Hader (who was just traded for Carlos Gomez), and a replacement level player in L.J. Hoes and a compensatory 1^st round pick. The draft pick turned out to be Virginia’s Derek Fischer who has hit 19 dingers for the Astros single-A club in 2015. He won 19 of his first 35 starts with the Orioles. This O’s pitcher got released on August 8^th after clearing waivers. He is now free to sign with any team willing to take on his services. Norris has been a huge disappointment in 2015 — actually huge disappointment would be an understatement. The Orioles signed Norris to a one-year, $8.8 million contract last winter to avoid an arbitration hearing. He was slated to solidify the middle/back end of the O’s rotation. A solid veteran who over his first five full years in the league averaged a WAR right around 2. He has never been flashy but always solid, until 2015. 2015 is the year of the Bud Norris Apocalypse. Norris sported an ERA of 7.06, and a Win-Loss record of 2-9. So is Norris this bad, or is he a victim of bad luck, and is picking him up for a pro-rated portion of the league minimum worth it?

What changed in 2015 versus the rest of Norris’ career that saw him deliver an average ERA of 4.20 over parts of six seasons? There’s a few factors that snakebite Norris in 2015. The first is Norris had a brutal increase in his FB/HR rate. For his whole career (2015 included), 11.4% of the fly balls hit against Norris went over the wall. This year that number ballooned to 17.7%. That is over a 55% jump. Why the huge jump in FB/HR rate? Well, it is not that his fastball velocity dipped, in fact his fastball velocity is over .6 mph faster than his career average of 92.9 mph. Norris is throwing the same rate of strikes vs. his career rate (63%). He has not been throwing in the middle of the plate any more than usual either. In fact, on pitches in the middle third of the strike zone he has thrown 0.7% less pitches than his career average.

Perhaps the reason behind the change in FB/HR rate is luck, but Norris is also throwing 7% more fastballs than the career average. Batters may have been sitting on his fastball more than usual and were teeing off. My thinking is that when a pitcher does not have a huge drop in velocity or major change in strikes thrown, the huge increase in FB/HR rate must be something of a fluke. Norris also got snakebitten by an awful LOB% of 59.5%. His career rate is 72%. Maybe this is just a product of being unlucky. But Norris has been miserable in situations with men on base; with runners in scoring position, batters were hitting .313. No pitcher on earth is going to have a good ERA when batters are hitting over .300 with RISP.

To recap, it seems that Norris may have been much more unlucky this year than other years in his career. He has not been good by any means, but he is not as bad as the 7.06 ERA he has this season. The xFIP and SIERA projections give Bud an estimated ERA of 4.55 and 4.48 much closer to his career mark of 4.20. It seems that Norris has been plagued this season by an inability to pitch with RISP and an awful FB/HR rate. I highly doubt anyone is going to confuse Norris for a top-tier starter, but he should still be a serviceable back of the rotation option.

Signing Bud Norris at this point in the season has practically no risk. If Norris signed for the league minimum, it would be pro-rated to roughly $150,000. Norris could serve as a $150,000 insurance policy in the event that a starting pitcher goes down. He could get picked up and put in the bullpen in a long-relief role with the capability of making a spot start. Having a viable long-relief man is huge during the late months of the season as teams try to save their bullpens. He could easily be picked up by a team like Minnesota who is 4 games back of the wild card. They could use back of the rotation help with the injury to Tommy Milone. The Giants could use rotation help with the recent injury to Mike Leake. And unless Kansas City feels comfortable running Jeremy Guthrie out to the mound every 5th day, Norris could be a good fit. Even a team like St. Louis or Tampa could use him for a spot start to give some rest to fairly young starting rotation. There could potentially be multiple landing spots for Bud. While Norris is not a flashy option by any means, he is a veteran who could easily be a band-aid for a team with a banged up rotation or just simply looking for someone to eat innings.

*Stats acquired from FanGraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com.

The importance of getting ahead of hitters is stressed to pitchers from the first time they play in a non-coach-pitch league.  It’s not what happens on the pitch immediately following a first pitch strike, it’s because the numbers for the rest of the at bat sway dramatically in the pitcher’s favor.

These are league averages, but for the most part they apply to individual hitters as well.  Paul Goldschmidt is not a “league average” hitter, in fact, he is at least in the conversation when discussing the best hitter in baseball right now (2015) – and I only say at least because I’m too afraid of the backlash I might receive if I declared him the best.  But regardless if a pitcher is facing an average hitter or an elite hitter, the law of getting ahead applies –  even if the numbers for Goldschmidt do look a bit different from the table of above.

Paul Goldschimdt is just so strong, and so adept at making hard contact to all parts of the field that, even at his worst, he’s still so much better than other professional hitters.  The results clearly show that he’s a lesser version of himself throughout the duration of an at-bat that starts with a first-pitch strike, but here’s the thing: getting a first-pitch strike on Goldschmidt isn’t easy.  Not only is he discerning, but he is so devastatingly destructive when he sees something he likes.  Pitchers have gotten a first pitch strike against Goldschmidt 56.7% this season (league average is 61.1%).  In 471 PA, Paul Goldschmidt has only swung 126 times at first pitches, or 26.8%.  It could be said that Paul Goldschmidt “goes to bat with a plan”.  But it’s not like pitchers’ game plans will stand idle while Goldschmidt continues to pummel them; they will make adjustments, and one adjustment they have made, because the pay-off is so dramatic, lies in figuring out how to get ahead of him.

First, let’s consider two samples from Goldschmidt’s 2015 – through July 3^rd of this year Paul Goldschmidt put up MVP numbers:

April 6 – July 3:

Since then, however, he has hit like someone who just might be mortal:

July 4 – August 4:

So what course of action have pitchers taken to get ahead of him in the count?  The answer lies in the conveniently bolded numbers featured in the CB% column of the table below.

Numbers represent the usage of pitches in all first-pitch situations to Paul Goldschmidt.

Obviously there’s been an uptick of a larger percentage in split fingers for first pitches, but a hell of a lot more pitchers throw curveballs than splitters, so that value is not really important.  What is important is that 119.5% increase in first-pitch curveballs, because Paul Goldschmidt SPITS at first pitch curveballs.  He saw twenty-eight, 1^st pitch curveballs in the sample size concluding July 3^rd and swung at a grand total of 1 of them.  Since then, in a month, he’s seen 20, first-pitch curveballs and has swung at exactly 0 of them.

Goldschmidt is looking for something hard-ish (fastball/slider/change-up; league average change up velo is 83.3 compared to 77.7 for curveballs and 84.2 for sliders) that he can drive on the first pitch, and knows he can lay off curveballs to sacrifice a first-pitch strike and still be an above-average hitter.  For the record, it’s not like Goldschmidt is bad against curveballs; he owns a 3.31 wCB/C in 2015 (3.79 through July 3^rd, and 2.16 after), it’s just that he’s committed to his plan.  Pitchers – or analysts – have noticed his disregard for curveballs as first pitches, and the pitchers – not the analysts – have twirled curveballs in to Goldschmidt on the first pitch at a much higher rate over the last month – again, that number is 119.5% more often.  While the strike percentage of these curveballs has only been 45%, that’s still up from the 28% of curveballs for first-pitch strikes through July 3^rd.

Conjecture alert:  Perhaps expecting more first-pitch curveballs, Paul Goldschmidt has readied himself to not swing at the first pitch, as he has swung at just 25.3% of non-curveball first pitches since July 4^th, compared to 32.9% through July 3^rd.  Pitchers have been able to sneak their first pitch strike percentage up against Goldy from 55.9% to 59.5% in this past month – that’s a 6.4% increase.  So it seems as though the best way to beat Paul Goldschmidt is to try to find some way to make him swing the bat less, because when he does, bad things happen to baseballs.  For clarification, I’m talking about throwing him more first pitch curveballs, not walking him every time up.

Paul Goldschmidt is so good that he will probably adjust to this new approach fairly quickly.  I said earlier, “he knows he can lay off curveballs to sacrifice a first-pitch strike and still be an above-average hitter” – Paul Goldschmidt’s aim is not to be a player who is an above-average hitter – he’s a force at the plate and he will adjust.  Health permitting, Goldschmidt will likely finish the season with at least a .300 AVG, 100 R scored, 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 20 SB – a line we haven’t seen from a first baseman since Jeff Bagwell did it in 1999.

So as Goldschmidt adjusts to this new attack from pitchers, maybe the real number to take away from this research is that Goldschmidt is partying like it’s 1999.

Prince Fielder has an interesting new look compared to the rest of his career.  He built a profile for himself as a patient powerful left-handed batter and with his swing and tendencies there was no reason to expect a shift.  After 10 seasons in the MLB, Prince Fielder has re-invented himself after undergoing a spinal fusion surgery after the 2014 season.

The Raw Data

First, let’s take a look at Fielder’s batting trends over the past four years, excluding 2014 due to injury.

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The first thing we can see from this is that he’s completely changed the way he approaches his at-bats.  His walk rate is down from his career average of 12.7% to a pedestrian 8.8%.

View post on imgur.com

View post on imgur.com

Comparing his swing% charts, it’s easy to see why his walk rate is down.  Fielder is swinging at more pitches in almost every part of the zone.  Usually this would also correlate with an increased strikeout rate, but Fielder is throwing that out as well.  Fielder has a career low 11% strikeout rate.  He’s making consistent contact and putting the ball in play.

The final piece to figuring out the difference with Fielder is the kind of contact that he’s making and where he his making it to.  Prince’s .343 BABIP is extremely high compared to his career average of .306, but after 400 at bats, small sample size problems are decreasing.  However, the inflated BABIP cannot be explained by his batted ball data, as his LD%, GB%, FB%, and Hard Hit% are all around his career averages.

The only other places to look are his spray charts.

View post on imgur.com

View post on imgur.com

The main difference here seems to be that Prince has not been hitting into the teeth of the over-shift near as much when compared to years before.  This could explain why his batting average is up from his career average of .288 to .329.

Analysis

Prince Fielder’s largest shift is in his approach.  He’s significantly more aggressive at the plate, all while keeping his strikeout rate low and his batted ball rates in line with career averages.  To put it into perspective, his current 8.8% walk and 11.0% strike out rates are closer to Juan Pierre’s career averages than his own.

Fielder is also significantly more adept at hitting ground balls to the left side, decreasing the effect of the over-shift that is usually employed against him.  Both his and his low strikeout rate support his increased batting average.

The largest worrying trend is his HR/FB rate, which is 12.7% this season.  It is significantly lower than his career average of 18.4%.  However, seeing as though he just had a spinal fusion surgery, it is not surprising that he has lost a bit of power.

Conclusion

While Fielder is having a very solid comeback year, there are some concerning trends going forward.  Usually an aging player with decreased walk and power rates precedes a rapid decline.  However, with Princes other encouraging trends like his strikeout rate and getting his hard-hit rate back to career averages, it is hard to predict how the rest of his career will go.  Projection models will not have a very easy time projecting him over the next few seasons, but if I were to guess, I would say that Prince will either age more like a low-strikeout line-drive hitter over an aging power hitter.

Unless of course, he decides to change his style again.

Hearing Carlos Correa’s name can lead to polarizing reactions. If you’re one of the lucky few who managed to snatch him up in fantasy, then you celebrate every time he is mentioned. If you’re an Astros fan, I’d imagine you’d do the same, although being from New Jersey, I can’t say I actually know any Astros fans. However, if you’re not a part of one of those two groups, you’re probably asking “He can’t actually be this good, can he?”

Fortunately for me, I’m part of the group that owns him in fantasy. Because of this, I just want to enjoy the ride and not worry about whether it will end or not. With the fantasy trade deadline coming up though, it is something that I decided to look into. On a pace of 98 runs, 43 home runs, 115 RBIs, 17 steals, and a .297/.344/.573 slash line over a 162-game season, it’s hard to believe that he can keep that up.

First let’s take a look at the average. In 2014, at A+, Correa hit .325 with a .373 BABIP. You don’t expect a BABIP that high, but someone of his quality can certainly carry one over .320, so it’s at least not worrisome. This year, at AA, he actually improved on his average from a year ago, hitting .385 with a this time unsustainable .447 BABIP. He’s good, but not that good. This was evident upon his promotion to AAA, where he hit .276 with a .286 BABIP over 24 games. For someone only 20 years old and moving through the minors so fast, struggling (at least for his standard) was to be expected. In the majors though, he’s hitting a cool .297 with .312 BABIP, both seemingly in line with his career minor league numbers and looking like they will stay where they are.

Then there’s the OBP. Correa is reaching base at a .344 clip, which is actually lower than what he’s had at every level in the minors except for his 17-year-old debut season. His walk rate has decreased at each level, from 12.3% to 11.3% to 10.6% to the 6.7% it’s at right now. That’s concerning, but to be expected for such a young hitter moving up the ranks so quickly. His strikeout rate has also gone up to 19.1%, leaving his BB/K at an ugly .35. Without taking walks, it’ll be hard for Correa to continue getting on base at his current rate, but with the way he hits the ball and the lineup protection he has behind him, it’s hard to see his OBP dropping much below .340. Furthermore, if he keeps that high OBP and continues to bat in a top-4 spot (it’s hard to tell where he’ll bat in the lineup once George Springer returns from injury), his counting stats should have no problem continuing at their torrid pace as well.

It’s hard to believe anyone would have a question whether he could keep up his stolen-base production. He stole 18 bases earlier this year in the minors over 53 games while only being caught once. The year before that, he stole 20 bases in 62 games being caught 4 times. If anything, you’d expect Correa to actually have more stolen bases, but it’s hard to complain if he reaches the 15-steal mark.

The one thing that is probably the most in question is the power. His 24.5 HR/FB% would rank him 8th among qualified hitters, right below Mark Teixeira and above hitters like J.D. Martinez, Jose Abreu, Paul Goldschmidt, and Albert Pujols. Fortunately for Correa and his average, he sprays the ball around the field better than any of those players (even Martinez!), but that may not actually be helpful for his power as pulling the ball will generally produce more power. He also makes less hard contact than those above him on the HR/FB% leaderboard, which makes us question the number in the limited sample size we’ve seen.

In order to get a more accurate picture, I looked into the PITCHf/x data from baseball savant. Only 11 of Correa’s home runs were tracked this way, but that’ll have to do. According to the data, Correa actually had a higher average angle off the bat on his home runs, as well as a higher exit velocity (30.7 compared to 27.6 and 102.8 compared to 102.7). His batted ball distance, though, was shorter, calculating to 389 feet as opposed to the league average on home runs of 397.9 feet. While 10 feet is certainly meaningful, when combined with his better-than-average angle off the bat and exit velocity, it’s hard to credit too many of his home runs to luck. Even giving him 11 instead of 13 for the season, he’d still be on a 37 home run pace.

Getting away from the fancy numbers, the good news about all this is that Correa actually has an ISO that would be 6th best in the majors, due in large part to the 14 doubles he has collected alongside his 13 home runs. Correa’s power seems to be legit, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him challenge for 30 home runs by the time the season is done.

After looking at the numbers, everything from Correa seems to check out, and it’s clear that he’s not just benefiting from luck. If he could achieve numbers even close to his pace, he already deserves to be called the best shortstop in the game. Over the past 10 years, the best offensive season by WAR for a shortstop came from Hanley Ramirez in 2008 when he had 125 runs, 33 home runs, 63 RBIs, 35 SBs, and a slash line of .301/.400/.540. Based on his prorated numbers, Correa could easily have that season next year, maybe with a few less stolen bases, a slightly lower OBP, and double the RBIs. Oh yeah, and he’s 20. Take that, Bryce Harper.

With the trade deadline approaching (ed. note: so long!), we have players donning their current affiliation’s uniforms for a final game.  Aside from a few tears shed by baseball’s infantile devotees (ages 3 and up), these will be business-like transactions; it’s the buying and selling of goods.

For this article, we’ll be looking at pitcher performances in their final game before being traded.   The last game a pitcher pitches for a team is a relatively inconsequential event.  What I mean is that teams searching for that piece to propel their momentum in the efforts of a playoff push know what Cole Hamels is worth.  His value did not take a significant ding after two abysmal starts when he totaled 6.1 IP, 20 H, 14 ER, and 5 K (July 10th and 19th), and neither did it skyrocket after his performance on Saturday.  You know what happened, but let me recap: In his last outing for the Philadelphia Phillies, Hamels threw a no-hitter against the Cubs – the very team who he could have ended up with.  That’s probably already a better idea for an article – pitchers that were traded to the team they just faced – but I’ve started the research for the article I’m currently writing, an article that, much like my night, is, for lack of a better word, aimless.  My one year old son is asleep, my wife went to a birthday dinner, I’m in my underwear watching X-Men 2: X-Men United (for the umpteenth time), drinking Diet Hansen’s Tangerine Lime, and thinking about Hamels’ almost 100-point game score in what was his last game as a Phillie.

For the purpose of this article, but mainly to eventually get some sleep tonight, we’re going to limit the research to this current decade (2010 being the starting point), and for pitchers that went to teams that made the playoffs only.  Cole Hamels’ no-hitter scored a 98 on Bill James’ game score calculation, with the only two blemishes keeping it from being a nice even 100, being the two walks he issued over the 9 IP.  There have been two pitchers traded already, Scott Kazmir and Johnny Cueto, and they each posted game scores north of 70 (73 and 78 respectively).  The starting pitcher talent level that could swap hands this year is pretty special.  It’s hard to remember the last time there was a talent pool this deep or when there were this many teams in viable contention to make playoff pushes, so it’s no surprise that we’ve seen a couple of really, really well-pitched games.  But in terms of single-game performances, how good is a game score of even Kazmir’s 73 in the final game before a player gets swapped?  You’d have to go back to 2010 to find a game score as high as 70, which was what Cliff Lee scored for the Mariners after dominating the Tigers over 8 IP.  (Zack Greinke had a 72 before he was traded to the Angels in 2012, but they didn’t make the playoffs.)

Below you’ll find a table with players that were traded close to the deadline to teams that made the playoffs from 2010 – 2014.  Next to their name you’ll find the game score of their last game pitched with the team that traded them (organized by game score) compared to the average game scores they posted with the team that traded them and the team they were traded to.  It’s highly likely that, with so much going on tonight – X-Men just ended – I missed one or two or three starting pitchers.  ((Also spoiler alert (Not about X-Men which I’ve seen close to 100 times now): There are no correlations between that one game score and their value for the rest of the season because a pitcher is the pitcher they’ve been for the body of their work)).

(Game Score Equation courtesy of Bill James: 50 + (outs recorded) + (2*IP after 4th inning) + (1*K) – (2*H) – (4*ER) – (2*Unearned Runs) – (1*BB) = Game Score)

**GmScA = Game Score Average

I know that 18 games is a small sample size, but 47.2 is a pretty sizable drop from averages of 54.6 and 54.5.  Perhaps it’s the uncertainty that these players are facing with the looming trade deadline that causes a dip in performance, or perhaps this is a silly, SILLY thing to look into and it means absolutely nothing!!!

But back to this year’s impressive pool of starting pitchers that were rumored to be available.  Let’s say all the top pitchers that are thought to be moving have thrown their last game for their respective teams.  Here’s a look at a table just like the one above but for the pitchers thought to be moving this year.  (This is assuming the caveats that all the players have pitched their final game for their respective teams and that they will all be traded to or have been traded to teams that will make the playoffs).

That’s a lot of 70s.  There are also three pitchers in this group with average game scores of over 60, which is one more than the number of pitchers that went to playoff bound teams from 2010 – 2014.  After all this, I wish there was a way to make this post more interesting, or show some correlation between any of these numbers, but there’s simply not!  It was a thought and I ran with it.  One game does not make a player, but I think in some TINY way, it is another example of what we know to be true:  there is some serious talent that’s about to switch hands – get excited.

Last night, I was lying in bed with my arms crossed behind my head, staring at my ceiling, and thinking of what a fantastic season Paul Goldschmidt is having.  “He’s so locked in; I wonder how pitchers have pitched him differently over the course of this season; I bet he’s super cool; I bet we’d hit it off; I wonder what kind of dogs he likes”.   The sheets rustled and my wife turned over and asked, sleepily, “Who are you talking about?”  I looked for her face in the dark.  I was surprised that I had been saying that out loud, but I just whispered to her, “I wasn’t saying anything, you were dreaming”.  She turned over and I said quietly to myself – “Of course it’s Golden Retrievers”.

Goldy is 3 stolen bases away from a 20/20 season which is a rare feat for a first baseman.  Todd Frazier technically did do it last year, but he only started 43 games at 1B, so I would only count him as achieving it as a 3B.  For the remainder of this exercise I’m going to only use players who reached particular milestones while playing the primary position they’re listed for instead of what positions they were eligible for – I’ll apologize to Ben Zobrist in advance.

Let’s go around the diamond and find some completely arbitrary statistical rarities that may be reached this season!  Yay!  Pointless fun!!!

Catchers: A Catcher’s Triple Crown

Buster Posey is so good.  He currently ranks, among catchers, 2^nd in HR (14), 1^st in RBI (67), and 1^st in AVG (.325).  As a side note, he’s also thrown out 48.4% of attempted runners this year and leads all catchers in WAR by a wide margin (4.3 compared to Vogt’s second place 3.0).  But those offensive numbers I listed are clearly the triple-crown categories, aren’t they?  That’s rhetorical.  He’s second in HR right now, trailing Brian McCann and Salvador Perez each by one HR.  Posey has finished second in HR among catchers in 2014 and 2012, and comes up 3^rd overall during that span with 75, trailing only Carlos Santana (76) and Brian McCann (78).

We have to travel back in time to the turn of the century to find a catcher who actually posted numbers worthy of a triple-crown among catchers and you’ve probably already guessed that it was the fabulous, Mike Piazza.  He led all catchers in HR (38), RBI (113), and AVG (.324) in the year 2000; absolutely gaudy numbers for any position nowadays.  Think about it, when Miguel Cabrera won the triple-crown in 2012, amassing 44 bombs and 139 RBIs while hitting .330, Piazza’s performance in the NL would’ve put him 2^nd overall in HR, 2^nd overall in RBI, and 3^rd overall in average.  In the year 2000, his numbers ranked 10^th, 13^th, and 10^th, respectively – this point of dramatic difference in his rankings falls into the “different eras” conversation.  Of course this is only about offense, and Piazza is arguably the greatest offensive catcher of all time, but I have to throw in (no pun intended) that Piazza only succeeded in apprehending 22.5% of would be base stealers that year.  Ooph!

First Basemen: 20/20 Campaign

This was the catalyst for this article and I talked about it earlier.  Goldy should be able to get to 20/20 this year and it’s been over a decade since a 1B primary player achieved this elite mark.  A few players have come close, but the man who did it was Derrek Lee.  The year was 2003 and the big, Marlins’ first baseman smacked 31 HR and stole 21 bases.  I didn’t peg Goldschmidt for a 20/20 season this year and I still think that his speed will erode over the next couple seasons, but looking back at Lee, who is not technically a good comparison for Paul Goldschmidt, except that he too was 27 years old in 2003 and had the ability to swipe a bag, he averaged 13 SB over the next 2 years.  Goldy, you may have a few years left of some good wheels, you god…I mean dog.

*Anthony Rizzo may very well get to 20/20 this season, too.

Second Basemen: 150 wRC+

Did you know that Robinson Cano never achieved a wRC+ of 150 in his prime?  That was a kind of shocking revelation for me when I picked this number to single out.  He posted a 149 in 2012 and averaged 142 from 2010 – 2013, which is a shiny number, but it’s not what we’re looking for.  New member of the Kansas City Royals, Ben Zobrist achieved a wRC+ of 152 in 2009 for the Rays, but kind of like Frazier’s 20/20 season last year, Zobrist is ineligible to be considered here because he only accrued a 124 wRC+ as a second baseman in 2009, where he played just over half of his games.  So let’s keep looking.  The last true second baseman to achieve a 150wRC+ was Chase Utley in 2007.  Yeah, Utley was fantastic, and the conversations I have with myself about Goldschmidt are reminiscent of Mac’s conversations with himself about Chase Utley (Always Sunny In Philadelphia).  So who is hitting the mark this year?  It’s not Altuve if that’s what you were thinking.  In fact, this hitter was well below average in 2014, posting a wRC+ of 86.  But he’s increased his BB rate, cut down on Ks, matched his HR output in 32 less games, and has 10 more XBH this year compared to last.  He’s known for his 2^nd half slumps, as he has a career 130 wRC+ before the break and a 96 after it, but if he can continue his torrid pace, Jason Kipnis would be the next second baseman to reach 150 wRC+ over a full season.

Third Basemen: Ranking 1^st in OFF and DEF (per FanGraphs)

Josh Donaldson currently ranks 1^st among 3^rd Basemen with a 23.4 Off number and 2^nd with a 9.3 Def number.  These numbers are rarely mentioned, but they’re still worth using as measurements since Off is batting and base running combined above average, and Def is Fielding and Positional Adjustment combined above average (again, per fangraphs).  In Defense, he only trails leather-wizard, Nolan Arenado’s 10.9 mark.  It’s not impossible for him to make up that ground this year and if he does, he’d be in some elite company.  Starting from the year 2000, Donaldson would join Troy Glaus (2000), Adrian Beltre (2004), and Evan Longoria (2011) as the only players in this century to lead 3^rd basemen in both categories.

Shortstops: Playing in at least 160 G and accruing less than 1.0 WAR

This isn’t a list you want to find your name on, but there’s Marcus Semien, sitting at 0.4 WAR while having played in all but 1 of the Athletics’ games this season (100 out of 101).  Steamer has him projected to play 52 more games and accrue 0.6 more WAR which would give him 152 G and a WAR of 1.0, therefore making him ineligible for this list but let’s extrapolate that pace and say he does play in 160 games.  Semien started the season like a man on fire, swatting 6 HR and heisting 7 bags through the end of May to go along with a nice .283 AVG and a .770 OPS.  Of course his glove has been a cast iron skillet, absorbing some of that heat that he started with, and his offense has taken a nose dive as well.  Since the beginning of June, he’s hit 2 HR and stolen 2 bases (all of these stats came in July – so 0 HR and SB in June) and he’s hit a paltry .206 to go with a .550 OPS.

There are a few other cases of every day shortstops being as valuable (or as lacking in value) as Semien has been this year.  Most recently, in 2013 over 161 G, Starlin Castro was actually worth negative value, and logged a -0.1 WAR.  Orlando Cabrera’s name appears twice since the year 2000, posting a WAR of 0.7 in 2009 over 161 G, and a symmetric looking 0.0 WAR over 161 G in 2004.   The one other name on this list is Neifi Perez, who in 2000 was worth a whopping 0.3 WAR and played every single game for the Rockies.  While the Rockies have had more productive shortstops since then, they have had a tough time keeping one on the field for that many games (unless you span 3 seasons or so) – that was a really mean sentence.

Outfielders: 5 players 25 years or younger with 30 HR

The talent pool of young players in 2015 is well documented.  Mike Trout is Mike Trout and he already has eclipsed 30 HR.  Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are stepping up their games to join baseball’s elite.  Giancarlo Stanton is injured now, but should be a lock for 30 if he comes back this year.  And Joc Pederson has arrived in the bigs swinging some thunderous lumber.  Each of these players (using Steamer’s ROS projections) are on pace to hit 30 HR or more.

Going back to my arbitrary year cutoff, 2000, I can only find 2 other accounts of this phenomenon.

2012: (2 of the same players are on the 2015 list!!!)

And the year 2000

Again, the year 2000 was a completely different era.

Starting Pitchers: K-BB% above 30%

This one is a little less likely, but the player in the hunt is Clayton Kershaw, so, yeah.  Kershaw led all of baseball last year with a 27.8 K-BB%.  He’s at it again this year, pushing the needle to 28.9%.  His SwStr% is trending up yet again and it’s up to 16.1%.  It’s gone up every year since 2012 when it was 11.1%.  You know I love tables, so here’s one for Kershaw

*Whatever percentage points are missing from his pitch usage in that chart are allocated to change-ups.  **I think the table is self explanatory and therefore, won’t waste any time explaining it.

Kershaw’s 27.8 K-BB% was the highest mark since Curt Schilling’s 27.9% in 2002.  If Kershaw can push it above 29% he’d leap over 2002 and he’d be the first pitcher since Randy Johnson in 2001 to be at 29% or higher.  Kershaw’s “rebounded” from his early season “struggles” with the long ball and has been as sharp as ever dating back to June 6^th.  From the beginning of the season through his start on June 1^st, his K-BB% sat at 24.8%.  Starting on June 6^th and including his start on July 23^rd, his K-BB% has been an absurd 33.9%.  If he can keep that up over his next 6 or 7 starts, depending on how many he has left, he could push that number to 30% and be the first pitcher since Pedro Freaking Martinez in 2000 to do so.  The insane thing about Pedro is that, in 2000, the league average K-BB% for starters was 6.7%; his was 30.8%, or 4.6 times the league average.  This particular category saw the leader’s rate drop every season until Cliff Lee led the category in 2010 with a 19.8 K-BB%.  Meanwhile the league’s starting pitcher average rate has gone up and is 12.2% this year.  Clayton currently sits at 2.4 times the league average, which is still phenomenal for a starting pitcher, but if you think about how inhuman he’s seemed over the course of the last couple of years, that just makes Pedro even more amazing, superlative, superlative, and superlative.

Relief Pitchers: AVG Velocity at 100 mph.

We’ll keep this one brief.  Pitch f/x data goes back to 2007 on FanGraphs, so that’s as far back as I can go, too.  Before 2011, Aroldis Chapman’s first full season in the pros, no one had averaged a 98 mph fastball before.  He did in 2011, and it sat at 98.1.  That number actually increased and kept increasing until it reached 100.2 mph in 2014.  That was his average fastball.  This year it’s a measly 99.5, but if anyone can do it, it would be the only man to do it.

Baseball is selfless in its ability to give us never-ending fun facts that the initiated will appreciate (I feel like there was some redundancy in that sentence).  This selflessness also serves as the primary reason why I’m sleep deprived and why my personal relationships are stunted.  So the next time your wife or husband or whoever, wakes up from their slumber to ask who you’re talking about, think of me, and if they’re statistically inclined, too, just say something like, “Oh hey, sorry to wake you, sweetie, it’s just that Paul Goldschmidt’s BB/K rate has been over 1 the last two months”, and then maybe, you two can lie awake and wonder about the wonders of Paul Goldschmidt’s approach at the plate this year.

Projecting baseball players has been a hobby of mine for the past 2 seasons. I would like to openly thank FanGraphs for the ease of accessing data to build a system for projections, as well as inspiration start this project from Tom Tango, Dan Syzmborski, Jared Cross (and team at Steamer) and all of the great researchers here at FanGraphs for pushing me to learn and try new things in creating a projection system.

The ODIEs (Oden Decision & Information Enhancement system) of projecting players is not all that dissimilar from Steamer and ZiPS found here at FanGraphs. My methodology for creating hitter and pitcher projections are as follows:

1. Weighted average of the last 3 years of player data depending on service time. Minor League Equivalencies are done for players with less than 3 years of service time.

2. Regressed stats based on league, park, and position type (C, 1B/3B, 2B/SS, OF, and SP/RP)

3. Adjusting for Age

4. Adjustments for Pitcher Velocity and Hitter Contact (Soft, Medium, & Hard)

5. Rest of Season Projections are weighted by Pre-Season and Actual stats for the 2015 season. I also readjust Rest of Season projections based on the criteria in point #4.

The major difference (that I can tell) in the ODIEs system to other successful systems is the incorporation of how stats are regressed and the adjustments for Velocity and Hitter Contact.

The files below will take you to the projections for both Hitters and Pitchers – here are some details to note:

1. There are three tabs for Pre-Season Projections, Rest of Season Projections (updated as of 7/23 games), and Total Projections using Real Data and Rest of Season Projections.

2. Each tab has a Criteria Search function that you can manipulate data in, the “Classification” column will change based on the results of your entries.

3. Fantasy Points, Points per game, PAR, and PAPAR values are all based on Ottoneu points scoring

I hope these projections are of use to anyone in Fantasy leagues, interested in player analysis, or anyone looking to push me to create the best projection system I can.

Link to Hitter Projections: https://www.dropbox.com/s/kyfr4i19nsn6hc4/ODIES_Shared_Hitters.xlsx?dl=0
Link to Pitcher Projections: https://www.dropbox.com/s/8t4ovkouir8f2sf/ODIES_Shared_Pitchers.xlsx?dl=0

Thanks, and I welcome and feedback or questions on this project.