If you haven’t read Part 1 and Part 2, you may want to go back and check them out. If you would prefer not to, this is a reminder of where these numbers came from:

Using FanGraphs’ terrific leaderboard tools, I found statistics for all players who played at each position in 2014. The following numbers apply only to the time spent at that position. Buster Posey, for example, accumulated 462 plate appearances at catcher, 128 at first base, and 9 at DH, so his plate appearances in those amounts are included for those positions in the table below.

For position players, I calculated WAR per 600 plate appearances. For starting pitchers, I used WAR per 150 innings pitched. For relievers, I used WAR per 50 innings pitched.

In this installment of 2014 WAR Breakdown, players at each hitting position are split into six different age groups. All “small sample size” warnings apply.

CATCHER

The most productive age groups for catchers were the “27 to 29” and “30 to 32” age groups, with both groups averaging 3.1 WAR/600 PA. Not surprisingly, the production by catchers really starts to dwindle as they move into their mid-30’s. The “30 to 32” age group hit a combined .253/.319/.385, while the “33 to 35” age group hit just .220/.310/.307. Russell Martin will be 32 next year and just signed a 5-year, $82 million contract with the Blue Jays. Here’s hoping he ages better than most catchers, for the Blue Jays’ sake.

Best Catcher 23 and under: Mike Zunino, 23 (1.7 WAR)

Best Catcher 24 to 26: Devin Mesoraco, 26 (4.1 WAR)

Best Catcher 27 to 29: Jonathan Lucroy, 28 (6.3 WAR)

Best Catcher 30 to 32: Russell Martin, 31 (5.4 WAR)

Best Catcher 33 to 35: Carlos Ruiz, 35 (3.2 WAR)

Best Catcher 36 and up: David Ross, 37 (0.2 WAR)

FIRST BASE

In 2014, first baseman aged 24 to 26 were the most productive group at the position, averaging 2.3 WAR/600 PA. The “30 to 32” group was next, at 1.9 WAR/600 PA, with the group in the middle (“27 to 29”) finishing third in this metric. The small sample sizes of young (23 and under) and old (36 and older) were quite unproductive, both averaging negative WAR per 600 PA and hitting under .200.

Best First Baseman 23 and under: Will Myers, 23 (0.0 WAR in just 3 PA)

Best First Baseman 24 to 26: Anthony Rizzo, 24 (5.6 WAR)

Best First Baseman 27 to 29: Jose Abreu, 27 (4.4 WAR)

Best First Baseman 30 to 32: Miguel Cabrera, 31 (4.9 WAR)

Best First Baseman 33 to 35: Justin Morneau, 33 (2.5 WAR)

Best First Baseman 36 and up: Raul Ibanez, 42 (0.3 WAR in 20 PA)

SECOND BASE

The most productive group of second basemen skewed older than you might expect. The group aged 30 to 32 had the highest WAR/600 PA and best hitting line. Overall, the three age groups ranging from age 27 to age 35 were the most productive.

Best Second Baseman 23 and under: Kolten Wong, 23 (1.8 WAR)

Best Second Baseman 24 to 26: Jose Altuve, 24 (5.0 WAR)

Best Second Baseman 27 to 29: Brian Dozier, 27 (4.6 WAR)

Best Second Baseman 30 to 32: Ian Kinsler, 32 (5.5 WAR)

Best Second Baseman 33 to 35: Chase Utley, 35 (4.2 WAR)

Best Second Baseman 36 and up: Brian Roberts, 36 (0.3 WAR)

THIRD BASE

Production at third base in 2014 skewed older. Third basemen 23 and under and 24 to 26 were the two least productive groups. The “33 to 35” group had the highest WAR/600 PA, but this was due mainly to just two players—Adrian Beltre and Juan Uribe.

Best Third Baseman 23 and under: Nolan Arenado, 23 (3.1 WAR)

Best Third Baseman 24 to 26: Kyle Seager, 26 (5.6 WAR)

Best Third Baseman 27 to 29: Josh Donaldson, 28 (6.5 WAR)

Best Third Baseman 30 to 32: Chase Headley, 30 (4.4 WAR)

Best Third Baseman 33 to 35: Adrian Beltre, 35 (5.7 WAR)

Best Third Baseman 36 and up: Aramis Ramirez, 36 (2.2 WAR)

SHORTSTOP

At the shortstop position, the age 24 to 26 group had the largest percentage of playing time of any group, but a lower WAR/600 PA than any group except the “36 and up” group. In the “27 to 29” age group, Troy Tulowitzki had 5.2 of the group’s 21.0 WAR (24.8%) despite getting just 372 of the group’s 5261 plate appearances (7%).

Best Shortstop 23 and under: Jose Ramirez, 21 (2.1 WAR)

Best Shortstop 24 to 26: Starlin Castro, 24 (2.8 WAR)

Best Shortstop 27 to 29: Troy Tulowitzki, 29 (5.2 WAR)

Best Shortstop 30 to 32: Jhonny Peralta, 32 (5.3 WAR)

Best Shortstop 33 to 35: Jimmy Rollins, 35 (3.5 WAR)

Best Shortstop 36 and up: LittleNicky Punto, 36 (0.4 WAR)

LEFT FIELD

Thanks to Christian Yelich, the most-productive group of left fielders in WAR/600 PA was the group of player’s aged 23 and under. It’s interesting to see the WAR/600 PA drop-off from the “30 to 32” group to the “33 to 35” group. The “33 to 35” group hit nearly as well as the younger group, but they had a couple of particularly bad fielders (Rajai Davis and Matt Holliday) who brought their WAR total down.

Best Left Fielder 23 and under: Christian Yelich, 22 (4.2 WAR)

Best Left Fielder 24 to 26: Justin Upton, 26 (4.1 WAR)

Best Left Fielder 27 to 29: Michael Brantley, 27 (4.5 WAR)

Best Left Fielder 30 to 32: Alex Gordon, 30 (6.6 WAR)

Best Left Fielder 33 to 35: Matt Holliday, 34 (3.8 WAR)

Best Left Fielder 36 and up: Endy Chavez, 36 (0.1 WAR)

CENTER FIELD

Mike Trout had 664 of the 3523 plate appearances (19%) credited to players 23 and under, but 34% of the WAR for this group. With Trout, Billy Hamilton (3.5 WAR) and Marcell Ozuna (3.4 WAR) all in the 23 and under group, this was the most productive collection of players of any of the age groups in WAR/600 PA. Center field is a young person’s position. Just 4.6% of the plate appearances by center fielders went to players 33 and over.

Best Center Fielder 23 and under: Mike Trout, 22 (7.5 WAR)

Best Center Fielder 24 to 26: Juan Lagares, 25 (3.8 WAR)

Best Center Fielder 27 to 29: Andrew McCutchen, 27 (6.8 WAR)

Best Center Left Fielder 30 to 32: Jacoby Ellsbury, 30 (3.9 WAR)

Best Center Fielder 33 to 35: Rajai Davis, 33 (1.0 WAR)

Best Center Fielder 36 and up: Reed Johnson, 37 (0.0 WAR)

RIGHT FIELD

Players 23 and under had 4.7 WAR as a group in 2014. Yasiel Puig had 3.7 of that total. In the “30 to 32” age group, Hunter Pence (4.7 WAR) had more than half of the total WAR (9.2) for the group.

Best Right Fielder 23 and under: Yasiel Puig, 23 (3.7 WAR)

Best Right Fielder 24 to 26: Giancarlo Stanton, 24 (6.2 WAR)

Best Right Fielder 27 to 29: Mat Kemp, 29 (2.4 WAR)

Best Right Fielder 30 to 32: Hunter Pence, 31 (4.7 WAR)

Best Right Fielder 33 to 35: Jose Bautista, 33 (6.1 WAR)

Best Right Fielder 36 and up: Marlon Byrd, 36 (1.9 WAR)

DESIGNATED HITTER

There wasn’t much WAR accumulated by players at the DH position in 2014. It’s hard to produce WAR with no defensive value and a strong positional adjustment.

Best DH 23 and under: Kennys Vargas, 23 (0.7 WAR)

Best DH 24 to 26: Yan Gomes, 26 (1.0 WAR)

Best DH 27 to 29: Chris Carter, 27 (2.2 WAR)

Best DH 30 to 32: Adam Lind, 30 (0.9 WAR)

Best DH 33 to 35: Victor Martinez, 35 (3.9 WAR)

Best DH 36 and up: David Ortiz, 38 (2.7 WAR)

PITCHER (HITTING)

Ha! Pitchers hitting. That’s funny.

Best Pitcher (hitting) 23 and under: Shelby Miller, 23 (0.5 WAR)

Best Pitcher (hitting) 24 to 26: Madison Bumgarner, 24 (1.2 WAR)

Best Pitcher (hitting) 27 to 29: Travis Wood, 27 (1.0 WAR)

Best Pitcher (hitting) 30 to 32: Zack Greinke, 30 (0.7 WAR)

Best Pitcher (hitting) 33 to 35: Dan Haren, 33 (0.3 WAR)

Best Pitcher (hitting) 36 and up: Bronson Arroyo, 37 (0.1 WAR)

PINCH-HITTER

Pinch-hitters hitting are only slightly less funny than pitchers hitting. Players 23 and under were better pinch-hitters than any other age group.

Best Pinch-Hitter 23 and under: Cory Spangenberg, 23 (0.3 WAR)

Best Pinch-Hitter 24 to 26: Lonnie Chisenhall, 25 (0.4 WAR)

Best Pinch-Hitter 27 to 29: Delmon Young, 28 (0.6 WAR)

Best Pinch-Hitter 30 to 32: John Mayberry, Jr., 30 (0.8 WAR)

Best Pinch-Hitter 33 to 35: Jeff Baker, 33 (0.3 WAR)

Best Pinch-Hitter 36 and up: Lyle Overbay, 37 (0.4 WAR)

Next up is a comparison of WAR in 2014 to WAR in 2002.

If you haven’t read Part I, you should consider doing so. For those who would prefer not to, this is a reminder of where these numbers came from:

Using FanGraphs’ terrific leaderboard tools, I found statistics for all players who played at each position in 2014. The following numbers apply only to the time spent at that position. Buster Posey, for example, accumulated 462 plate appearances at catcher, 128 at first base, and 9 at DH, so his plate appearances in those amounts are included for those positions in the table below.

For position players, I calculated WAR per 600 plate appearances. For starting pitchers, I used WAR per 150 innings pitched. For relievers, I used WAR per 50 innings pitched. Here is the table:

The table below shows a combination of all position players split into different age groups. The PA% column shows the percentage of plate appearances for each age group out of the total plate appearances for all hitters. As you can see, the 27 to 29 age range had the largest percentage of plate appearances and the “36 and up” group had the lowest. Similarly, the WAR% shows the percentage of total WAR accumulated by each age group. The column labeled “W%-PA%” shows the difference between the WAR% and the PA% columns. A positive difference is good. This means that age group was responsible for a higher percentage of WAR than their percentage of plate appearances.

POSITION PLAYER BREAKDOWN BY AGE

The meaty production for position players comes in the two age groups spanning ages 27 to 32. Players in this age range accounted for 51.1% of the total plate appearances and 57.6% of the total WAR. This age group didn’t hit as well as the “33 to 35” age group, but accumulated more WAR/600 PA, mainly due to the difference in the defensive component of WAR.

In news that should not surprise anyone, the “36 and up” age group was the worst, accumulating 4.4% of the total plate appearances but finished with -1.6 WAR with a wRC+ of 80.

Have you heard that on base percentage is an “older player’s skill”? Well, this table backs that up, as OBP increases for each age group from the “under 23” group up to the “33 to 35” group. That skill only lasts for so long, though, as offensive production plummets across-the-board in the “36 and up” age group.

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN BY AGE

In the hitter’s breakdown by age, the two most productive age groups spanned the ages from 27 to 32. For starting pitchers, the two most productive age groups were from age 24 to 29, with the “27 to 29” group being the most productive. This “27 to 29” age group had the best ERA, WHIP, and K/9. For starting pitchers, the “36 and up” age group was actually better than the “33 to 35” group, although the sample size was small, including just 13 pitchers 36 and older.

Strikeouts are important for every pitcher and the above chart shows how strikeouts dwindle as a pitcher ages. The “27 to 29” group has a K/9 of 7.8. This drops to 7.4 K/9 for the “30 to 32” group, then to 6.6 K/9 for the “33 to 35” age group.

RELIEF PITCHER BREAKDOWN BY AGE

For relief pitchers, the bulk of the production is right there in the “27 to 29” age group. This group accounted for 31.5% of the relief pitcher innings and 40.9% of relief pitcher WAR. They also were tops among all groups in ERA, WHIP, and K/9. The next-oldest group of relievers (“30 to 32”) was the worst, accumulating 20.6% of the relief pitcher innings but just 11.1% of relief pitcher WAR. This looks like the age where strikeouts drop precipitously. Relief pitchers aged 27 to 29 averaged 8.8 K/9 as a group, while those in the “30 to 32” age group had just 8.1 K/9.

The information above is the big picture breakdown by age group for all hitters, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers. Part 3 of this series will show the age group breakdown for each position.

What better to do in the middle of winter when there are still a couple weeks until pitchers and catchers report than to look at WAR. In particular, I was curious about WAR in 2014. What positions had the most WAR? What age group? How did younger pitchers compare to older pitchers? So many WAR questions…

I started with the breakdown of WAR by position.

Using FanGraphs’ terrific leaderboard tools, I found statistics for all players who played at each position in 2014. The following numbers apply only to the time spent at that position. Buster Posey, for example, accumulated 462 plate appearances at catcher, 128 at first base, and 9 at DH, so his plate appearances in those amounts are included for those positions in the table below.

For position players, I calculated WAR per 600 plate appearances. For starting pitchers, I used WAR per 150 innings pitched. For relievers, I used WAR per 50 innings pitched. Here is the table:

HITTERS

PITCHERS

Some things that stand out for me are listed below. These aren’t earth-shattering insights, but interesting nonetheless:

• You can see the influence of the positional adjustment and defensive value by comparing some positions. For example, left fielders and center fielders had similar offensive numbers in 2014 (LF: .321 wOBA, 104 wRC+; CF: .319 wOBA, 103 wRC+), yet there was a 1.0 difference in WAR/600 PA.
• The three weakest-hitting spots—catcher, second base, and shortstop—make up for it with their defensive chops and the defensive adjustment.
• Players at first base had the best hitting numbers (.332 wOBA, 112 wRC+) but the lowest WAR total among all position players (DH not included).
• Players in the Designated Hitter spot accounted for just 8.4 WAR and three players accounted for 8.8 WAR (the rest accumulated negative WAR): Victor Martinez (3.9 WAR), David Ortiz (2.7 WAR), and Chris Carter (2.2 WAR).
• Starting pitchers had a better ERA than relievers (3.82 to 3.58), which isn’t surprising, but relievers had a higher WHIP (1.28 to 1.27), which did surprise me. Relievers struck out more batters (8.5 K/9 to 7.4 K/9) but also walked more (3.3 BB/9 to 2.7 BB/9).

NEVER TRUST ANYONE OVER 30

The following tables show the breakdown for all hitters, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers by age; specifically, the group of players aged 29 and younger compared to the “30 and over” group.

Not surprisingly, players 29 and under were better than players 30 and over and this was true for hitters and pitchers. There was a big difference in the magnitude, though. For hitters, the difference was about 0.3 WAR/600 PA. This is true even though the older group of hitters had a better wRC+. Defense matters.

For starting pitchers, the difference was 0.6 WAR/150 IP, with starting pitchers 29 and under accumulating 65.3% of the innings pitched by starting pitchers and 72.2% of starting pitcher WAR. Starting pitchers 29 and younger had a K/9 of 7.5, while those 30 and older saw their K/9 drop to 7.0.

Relief pitchers showed the greatest difference between the two age groups in WAR% – IP%, with the younger group finishing at +10.0% (65.3% of the innings pitched, 75.2% of the WAR). There was a big difference in strikeout rate for the two groups, with the younger relief pitchers getting more strikeouts (8.7 K/9 to 8.0 K/9).

POSITION BREAKDOWN BY AGE (29 AND UNDER vs. 30 AND OVER).

Young catchers had 0.3 more WAR/600 PA than older catchers. On the offensive side, young catchers outslugged older catchers (.394 to .360) but had a lower OBP (.308 to .311).

Best catcher 29 and under: Jonathan Lucroy, 28 (6.3 WAR)

Best catcher 30 and older: Russell Martin, 31 (5.4 WAR)

Dishonorable Mention: Jose Molina, 39 (-1.3 WAR)

First base had a near 50-50 split in plate appearances for players 29 and under and 30 and over, but the younger players were 0.5 WAR/600 PA better.

Best first baseman 29 and under: Anthony Rizzo, 24 (5.6 WAR)

Best first baseman 30 and older: Miguel Cabrera, 31 (4.9 WAR)

Dishonorable Mention: Jon Singleton, 22 (-1.1 WAR)

Second base was one of four positions (DH included) at which players 30 and over had more WAR/600 PA than the younger group.

Best second baseman 29 and under: Jose Altuve, 24 (5.0 WAR)

Best second baseman 30 and older: Ian Kinsler, 32 (5.5 WAR)

Dishonorable Mention: Stephen Drew, 31 (-1.0 WAR)

Third base had the biggest discrepancy between players 29 and under and 30 and over when it comes to WAR/600 PA, with a difference of 1.2 WAR/600 PA in favor of the older group, even as the younger group had almost three times as many plate appearances.

Best third baseman 29 and under: Josh Donaldson, 28 (6.5 WAR)

Best third baseman 30 and older: Adrian Beltre, 35 (5.7 WAR)

Dishonorable Mention: Matt Dominguez, 24 (-1.7 WAR)

Shortstop was another position at which players 30 and over had more WAR/600 PA, thanks in part to a better hitting line across the board.

Best shortstop 29 and under: Troy Tulowitzki, 28 (5.2 WAR)

Best shortstop 30 and older: Jhonny Peralta, 32 (5.3 WAR)

Dishonorable Mention: Josh Rutledge, 25 (-0.8 WAR)

You can see how youth plays a role in the different outfield positions by observing the plate appearance percentage for each position. In left field, the split is roughly 60-40 in favor of players 29 and under. In centerfield, where speed is more important, 77% of the plate appearances were given to player 29 and under. In right field, it was much closer to 50-50. All three outfield positions saw more WAR/600 PA from the younger group of players in 2014.

Best left fielder 29 and under: Michael Brantley, 27 (4.5 WAR)

Best left fielder 30 and older: Alex Gordon, 30 (6.6 WAR)

Dishonorable Mention: Domonic Brown, 26 (-1.6 WAR)

Best center fielder 29 and under: Mike Trout, 22 (7.5 WAR)

Best center fielder 30 and older: Jacoby Ellsbury, 30 (3.9 WAR)

Dishonorable Mention: Junior Lake, 24 (-2.5 WAR)

Best right fielder 29 and under: Giancarlo Stanton, 24 (6.2 WAR)

Best right fielder 30 and older: Jose Bautista, 33 (6.1 WAR)

Dishonorable Mention: Oscar Taveras, 22 (-1.2 WAR)

The DH spot is an older player’s spot, with 63% of the plate appearances at DH given to players 30 and over. This group accounted for 89% of the DH WAR, with a higher batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Best DH 29 and under: Chris Carter, 27 (2.2 WAR)

Best DH 30 and older: Victor Martinez, 35 (3.9 WAR)

Dishonorable Mention: Kendrys Morales, 31 (-1.5 WAR)

Pitchers are just terrible hitters, old and young, fat and skinny, tall and short. They stink at hitting. Older pitchers are a little more stinky at hitting than younger pitchers.

Best Pitcher (hitting) 29 and under: Travis Wood, 27 (1.0 WAR)

Best Pitcher (hitting) 30 and older: Madison Bumgarner, 30 (1.2 WAR)

Dishonorable Mention: Bartolo Colon, 41 (-0.7 WAR) Colon was 2 for 62 with 0 walks and 33 strikeouts. Somehow, he managed to score 3 runs. That’s kind of mind-boggling, really.

This might surprise some people. When I think of pinch-hitters, I picture the aging veteran who calmly comes off the bench to deliver a big hit, like Manny Mota in the 70s or Rusty Staub in the 80s or Matt Stairs in the 00s. Last year, though, pinch-hitting was a younger man’s game. Players 29 and under had 59% of the pinch-hitting plate appearances and a slightly better triple-slash batting line.

Best Pinch-Hitter 29 and under: Delmon Young 28 (0.6 WAR)

Best Pinch-Hitter 30 and older: John Mayberry, 30 (0.8 WAR)

Dishonorable Mention: Greg Dobbs, 35 (-0.5 WAR)

That’s probably enough for now. More likely, it’s way too much. Either way, if you notice anything interesting about these numbers, please make your observations known in the comments. Next up is a more involved breakdown of WAR by age group for hitters and pitchers.

Pinch-hitting is difficult. You’re sitting on the bench all game, you may not have taken batting practice that day, you might be facing a relief pitcher throwing hot cheese, it’s just really difficult to come off the bench and do something productive.

There were 574 different players used as pinch-hitters in 2014, with this group of players accumulating 5483 plate appearances and hitting just .213/.291/.322. As a group, pinch-hitters accounted for negative 0.9 WAR. At the bottom of the pinch-hitting group was Greg Dobbs, who hit .107/.138/.107 in 29 plate appearances, good for negative 0.5 WAR.

There were other players who struggled nearly as much as Dobbs. Chris Denorfia was 3 for 32 as a pinch-hitter. Tony Gwynn, Jr. was 2 for 30. Little Nicky Punto was 0 for 14.

Along with the individual strugglers, there were whole teams who cost themselves at least one win because of lousy pinch-hitting. The Washington Nationals finished dead last in pinch-hitting WAR, with a mark of -1.2. Their combined triple-slash line was .118/.244/.234, for a wRC+ of 38. There were a couple teams who hit even worse than the Nationals (the Braves and Astros), but the Nationals had more pinch-hitting appearances, so finished with less WAR.

The Nationals had five players who were particularly bad at pinch-hitting in 2014: Tyler Moore (1 for 14), Greg Dobbs (2 for 15), Nate McLouth (2 for 23), Nate Schierholtz (1 for 14), and Scott Hairston (5 for 38). Combined, these five players hit .106/.199/.163 with 36 strikeouts in 121 plate appearances and accounted for -1.0 WAR. Of course, there was some bad luck involved. The Nationals’ pinch-hitting BABIP was .171. They were the only team in baseball with a pinch-hitting BABIP below .200. All teams in major league baseball had a BABIP of .282 while pinch-hitting, with a high BABIP of .440 for the Chicago White Sox. The Nationals were not only bad at pinch-hitting; they were also unlucky.

On the other side of the coin, there were three teams who received 0.7 WAR from their pinch-hitters: the Orioles, Diamondbacks, and Rockies. The Orioles were kind of amazing in this regard. The Diamondbacks had 249 pinch-hitting plate appearances and the Rockies had 266, but the Orioles earned 0.7 WAR from their pinch-hitters in just 77 at-bats, thanks to a .313/.395/.522 batting line (156 wRC+). Delmon Young (0.6 WAR as a pinch-hitter) was the driving force behind the Orioles’ league-leading pinch-hitter WAR total. Young only had 23 pinch-hitting plate appearances, but hit .500/.565/.800.

As good as Delmon Young was, he wasn’t the top pinch-hitter of 2014. That title belongs to John Mayberry Jr., King of the Pinch Hitters. Mayberry had 32 pinch-hit plate appearances and hit .400/.438/.933. As a pinch-hitter, Mayberry accounted for 0.8 WAR, tops in baseball. For the season, Mayberry had just 0.2 WAR, so he was worth negative WAR in his non pinch-hitting appearances. Let’s look at a table (smalls sample size warning, yada, yada yada):

John Mayberry’s Hitting Prowess, by position

As a first baseman, John Mayberry did not hit well. As a left fielder, John Mayberry was truly awful. As a center fielder, John Mayberry was really bad. As a right fielder, John Mayberry was actually good. As a pinch-hitter, John Mayberry rocked the house. He brought the noise and the funk.

This hasn’t always been the case for John Mayberry the Younger. Before his mighty 2014 season as a pinch-hitter, Mayberry had three straight years with sub-par pinch-hitting production (wOBAs of .280, .285, and .258). Then again, in his first two seasons (very small sample size), Mayberry had wOBAs of .407 and .611. Overall, John Mayberry the Second is a career .304/.355/.545 hitter as a pinch-hitter. This is considerably better than his overall career batting line of .241/.305/.429. See the table below for this information in numerical form:

John Mayberry’s Pinch-Hitting Record by Year

The problem with pinch-hitting it that it’s just so unreliable. Last year, the aforementioned Greg Dobbs hurt his team more than any other player when he came off the bench to pinch-hit. Early in his career, though, Mr. Dobbs had three very good years coming off the bench from 2006 to 2008, increasing his production each year, with wOBAs of .342, .384, and .387. He was so good at pinch-hitting, he was given around 60 pinch-hit plate appearances per year in 2007 and 2008. He was reliable, consistent, someone you could count on when the chips were down. If you needed a guy to come off the bench and get a hit, dial up Dobbs! He was Mr. Dependable!

Only then he wasn’t. In 2009, Dobbs hit .167/.250/.241, for a wOBA of .230, but still got 60 plate appearances off the bench. The next year, he hit .122/.204/.286 (.213 wOBA), but old reputations die hard and Dobbs was sent up as a pinch-hitter 54 times.

Then, just when you thought it was time to give up on old Greg Dobbs as a pinch-hitter, he hit .370/.400/.519 (.396 wOBA) in 2011. D-TO-THE-O-TO-THE-DOUBLE-B-S! Greg Dobbs, pinch-hitter extraordinaire was back, baby!

Only he wasn’t. He was less-than-stellar in 2012: .268/.289/.366 (.272 wOBA). He was pretty bad in 2013: .208/.298/.250 (.222 wOBA). And he was truly unpleasant in 2014: .107/.138/.107 (.116 wOBA). This table says it all:

THE DOBSTER AS A PINCH HITTER

Greg Dobbs had some very good years as a pinch-hitter. He also had some very bad years as a pinch-hitter. Just when you thought he had proven to be a good pinch-hitter, he disproved it. You just never know with pinch-hitters.

John Mayberry Jr. was the King of the Pinch Hitters in 2014. Given the history of pinch-hitters, it is unlikely that he will retain that crown.

I have to start with a confession: I love David Ortiz. I’ve had him on my fantasy team in my most important league in three of the last four years. I like his stats, of course, but I also like the way he claps his hands when he’s preparing to hit, the way he sets up in the box, the way he rambles around the bases after launching one into the outfield. I like the big smile on his face when things are going well. There may not be such a thing as a clutch hitter, but I like to think that when it comes to the mythical clutch hitter, Big Papi is the clutchiest of them all. In short, Big Papi es mi hombre.

Unfortunately, David Ortiz will be 39 years old in 2015. In Major League Baseball, 39-year-olds generally do not hit well. They generally don’t field well, either, but that doesn’t matter to me and Big Papi. We’re all ‘bout that bat, ‘bout that bat, no fielding…

Last year, there were two 39-year-old position players in MLB—John McDonald (.171/.256/.197, 38 wRC+) and Jose Molina (.178/.230/.187, 23 wRC+). There were three 40-year-old positions players in MLB—Bobby Abreu (.248/.342/.338, 100 wRC+), Ichiro! (.284/.324/.340, 86 wRC+), and Derek Jeter (.256/.304/.313, 73 wRC+). There were zero 41-year-old positions players, one 42-year-old—Jason Giambi (.133/.257/.267, 48 wRC+), and one 43-year-old—Raul Ibanez (.167/.264/.285, 61 wRC+). Overall, in 2014, players aged 39 and up combined to hit .220/.280/.281, for a wRC+ of 60. They were just terrible at hitting, is what I’m saying.

Of course, just because those chumps were terrible at hitting at an advanced age doesn’t mean my boy Big Papi will be terrible at hitting at an advanced age. He’s already at an advanced age and he has been pretty darn good over the last few years, unlike the Jose Molinas and John McDonalds of the world.

David Ortiz hit .263/.355/.517 last year, good for a .369 wOBA and 135 wRC+. He was worth 2.4 WAR. The previous year, he had 3.8 WAR, so last year was a somewhat significant drop-off (63% of his previous year’s total WAR). That .369 wOBA was the lowest for Ortiz since 2009 and second lowest since 2003. In other words, in 2014 David Ortiz had the second-lowest wOBA in the 12 years he’s played with the Red Sox.

So what does that mean for 2015? Can Big Papi hold off Father Time once again or will he fall off a cliff at 39 years old?

To get to the bottom of this all-important question, I decided to start with the Similarity Scores list for David Ortiz that can be found at Baseball-Reference.com, along with his #1 ZiPS comp.

Baseball-Reference.com’s most similar batters to David Ortiz through age 38:

Frank Thomas

Fred McGriff

Paul Konerko

Willie McCovery

Willie Stargell

Jason Giambi

Todd Helton

Jim Thome

Reggie Jackson

Gary Sheffield

ZiPS top comp: Rafael Palmeiro

Paul Konerko has retired, so he’s no good to us. We’ll use the other players in a not-overly-mathematical attempt to determine how David Ortiz might do in 2015.

First, here are David Ortiz’ relevant statistics from last year, when he was 38 years old:

And here are his 10 comparable players in their age 38 seasons:

Four of these players were coming off much worse seasons than Ortiz just had, so perhaps they are not great comps, but we’ll keep them in the mix for now.

Here are these same 10 players in their age 39 seasons:

As a group, these players had better triple-slash numbers in their age 39 seasons, but with an average of 10 fewer plate appearances and less production in runs, home runs, and RBI, along with a drop in WAR from an average of 1.5 to 1.1.

That’s not too bad, though. They didn’t fall off a cliff, like one might expect from a 39-year-old player. Taking what these players did from age 38 to 39 and applying it to Ortiz’ stats from last year, you would get a line in the vicinity of this for David Ortiz in 2015: 589 PA, 48 R, 32 HR, 91 RBI, .272/.359/.519.

(Note: David Ortiz scored a ridiculously low number of runs last year—just 59 despite getting on base over 200 times. It would be unlikely that he would score at such a low rate two years in a row, especially with the Red Sox’ improved line up).

Okay, let’s go back to those comparable players and whittle down the sample size to ridiculous levels. Let’s use only those players who had between 1.5 and 3 WAR in their age 38 season. Say goodbye to 1976 Willie McCovey (0.2 WAR), 1978 Willie Stargell (3.6 WAR), 2009 Jason Giambi (-0.1 WAR), 2012 Todd Helton (0 WAR), 2009 Jim Thome (0.8 WAR), and 1984 Reggie Jackson (0 WAR). That only leaves us with four players, but sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do.

One of those remaining four players is Gary Sheffield, who stole 22 bases when he was 38 and 9 bases when he was 39. That doesn’t seem like something David Ortiz could do, so I’m going to reluctantly toss Gary Sheffield aside as a comparable player to Big Papi. Down to just three comps, I went looking for others. I found Carl Yastrzemski and Brian Downing. Yaz had 2.4 WAR at age 38, just like David Ortiz, and is left-handed, like David Ortiz, and played some first base, like David Ortiz. Yaz also played left field and even center field at age 38, so he’s not the best comp, but he’ll do for now. Brian Downing was a full-time DH at age 38 and had 1.9 WAR, close enough to Big Papi’s 2.4, so I’ll keep him also, despite his right-handedness. That gives us five comparable players look at.

Here is David Ortiz’ age 38 season again in case you forgot from a couple minutes ago:

And the five comparable players when they were 38 years old:

So, how did this group of four perform in their age 39 season?

This group lost 1 WAR and saw drops across the board but, again, it wasn’t a cliff dive. They retained some value. If David Ortiz ages like these four players, he would have a 2015 season that looks a bit like this: .257/.351/.491, 45 R, 25 HR, 80 RBI.

So, based on this minimally-scientific study that is by no means meant to replace Steamer or ZiPS or the Fans projections, it would appear that David Ortiz will hit somewhere between the two following batting lines in 2015 (shown along with the average of the two projections from above):

Or if you prefer a much more mathematical model, there’s always Cairo, Davenport, Marcel, Steamer, ZiPS, and the Fan projections, along with the average of this all these projections:

And there you have it—David Ortiz in 2015, not over the hill just yet.

On his FanGraphs player page, Bartolo Colon is listed at 5’11” and 285 pounds, or roughly the size of a soda machine, I’d guess. On the one hand, that’s five pounds less than CC Sabathia, so they could sit on opposite ends of a teeter-totter and have a jolly good time, as opposed to Bartolo Colon on one end and Dustin Pedroia on the other, which would look like this: / . On the other hand, CC Sabathia is eight inches taller, so Bartolo Colon’s BMI would be 39.7 to CC Sabathia’s 32.7. It’s not exactly the case that they would make the number 10 if they were standing next to each other. It would be more like this number: 00.

Bartolo Colon is not a very good hitter. In his career, Bartolo Colon has 12 hits in 158 at-bats, for a batting average of .076. Half of those hits came in one season, the glorious 2002 season when Bartolo Colon was bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, the Montreal Expos still existed, Twitter had not yet been invented, and young Bartolo Colon hit a magnificent .133. On August 9^th of 2002, Bartolo Colon had an epic day at the dish. Playing for the Montreal Expos (RIP), Colon come up to the plate in the top of the second inning with one out and nobody on. He was facing Ruben Quevedo, who pitched four big leagues seasons with a career ERA of 6.15. Ruben Quevedo, it should be noted, is listed at 6’1” and 257 pounds. Bartolo Colon probably wasn’t his full-figured 285 pounds back in 2002, but he could have been pushing 250, so there was likely 500 pounds of player squaring off in this at-bat. Colon came out on top, singling a ball into short left field. Brad Wilkerson followed with a walk, moving Colon to second (he eschewed the steal attempt). A rally was starting! Unfortunately, it ended quickly, with a pop-out by Jose Macias and a ground out to the right side by Jose Vidro, which was a preview of about 400 similar Jose Vidro at-bats with the Mariners during the last two years of his career.

In the third inning, Colon was at it again. With two outs and runners on second-and-third, Colon singled up the middle, driving in two runs (40% of his career RBI). Brad Wilkerson followed with a double and Colon made it all the way to third base (“Oxygen! We’re gonna need some oxygen here!”). Jose Macias then doubled him in and Colon had not only driven in two runs on the day, but also scored a run (25% of his career total). The excitement was almost too much for Colon. In his next two at-bats, he struck out swinging, but he had already made his mark with the bat that day.

Bartolo Colon does not have a discerning eye at the plate. He has come to bat 173 times in his career and has yet to take a walk. He’s a free swinger. He likes to take his hacks. Most of the time, he does not make contact, as his 51.4% strikeout rate can attest to. Even though he’s yet to walk in his big league career, Colon has earned first base by sacrificing his body on a hit by pitch. It was back in 2002, the peak of his hitting career, in a game against the Florida Marlins on July 28^th. The pitcher was Julian Tavarez, who hit 15 batters that year, just 2 fewer than the league leader, Chan Ho Park. It was in the bottom of the 4^th inning, with the Expos leading, 2-1. Colon came to the plate with two outs and runners on first-and-second and took one for the team on an 0-1 pitch, loading the bases for Brad Wilkerson. Unfortunately, Wilkerson grounded out to end the inning, so Colon’s bodily sacrifice went for naught.

Despite the 285 pounds of full-bodied force behind his swing, Bartolo Colon has not been much of a power hitter in his big league career. In fact, of his 12 career hits, just one went for extra bases. That extra base hit came in 2014, which brings me to my point. And here it is: last year, Bartolo Colon had 2 hits in 62 at-bats, struck out 33 times, never walked or was hit by a pitch, and scored 3 runs. How is this possible? How can a 285-pound player who has just 2 hits and no walks in the entire season manage to score 3 runs? I had to find out how Bartolo Colon accomplished this feat.

Colon’s first hit of the 2014 season came on June 18^th. Coming into the game, Colon was 0 for his last 43, undoubtedly bitten by the BABIP bug. With the Mets losing 1-0 to the Cardinals, Bartolo Colon led off the top of the 6^th inning with a double to deep left field off Lance Lynn. The next batter, Eric Young, Jr., doubled to deep right-center field and Colon chugged on home with his first run scored of the season and the second of his 17-year career. In his two other plate appearances, Colon laid down successful sacrifice bunts, making him 1 for 1 on the day with a run scored. That’s a batting average of 1.000 for those scoring at home.

In his next start, June 24^th versus the A’s, Colon kept his hot hitting going. He laid down another successful sacrifice in his first at-bat, then singled to left field in his second at-bat of the game, making him officially 2 for his last 2. The man was hot! Unfortunately, his teammates let him down and he was unable to come around to score.

On July 5th, Colon utilized his speed to score his second run of the season. With no outs and Ruben Tejada on first, Colon tapped a weak grounder to third base, but Adrian Beltre’s throw to second was off the mark and Colon made it to first on the error. Curtis Granderson followed with a double to deep left field, scoring Tejada from second and allowing Colon to get to third base. Daniel Murphy followed with a single to left field, but Colon was obviously still catching his breath after going first to third on Granderson’s double, so he stayed on third and the bases were loaded (true story). David Wright then flew out to center field. In his younger days when he was full of passion and desire, Bartolo Colon may have tried to score. He’s older and wiser now, though, and chose to remain on third base, comfortable and cozy. When Bobby Abreu singled to right, Colon had no choice but to run home, as there were runners on all the bases behind him. And thus, Bartolo Colon had scored his second run of the season.

It would take another two months for Bartolo Colon to get a chance to score again. On September 5^th versus the Reds, Colon came to the plate against Alfredo Simon with no outs and Wilmer Flores on second. Colon hit a ball to the shortstop, who appeared to tag Flores for the out. Upon further review (an instant replay challenge by Mets’ manager Terry Collins), it was ruled that the shortstop missed the tag and Flores was ruled safe at third, with Colon standing contentedly at first. Juan Lagares followed with a grounder to third, getting Flores thrown out at home but allowing Colon to meander down to second. After a strikeout from Matt den Dekker, David Wright hit a ground ball single into right field. Colon came motoring into third, eagerly looking at the third base coach for the windmill sending him home, but getting the hands-in-the-air stop sign instead. The bases were juiced for Lucas Duda. The count ran full and with two men already out, that meant Bartolo Colon would be running on the pitch, giving him a much better chance to score from third on a single, should there be one. Instead, Duda took ball four and Colon slowed to a trot, walking home with his third run scored of the season.

In 2014, Bartolo Colon had 2 hits, 0 walks, 0 HBP, and reached on error one time . . . and scored three runs. It was mighty impressive. Compare him to Mike Trout, who had 173 hits, 83 walks, 10 HBP, and reached on error 7 times, for a total of 273 times on base of his own accord, and only scored 115 runs.

When it comes to runs scored as a percentage of times on base, Mike Trout, good sir, you are no Bartolo Colon.

After spending the first four years of his career primarily in the bullpen, Jeff Samardzija became a full-time starting pitcher in 2012. In his first two years as a starting pitcher, Samardzija was worth 2.8 and 2.6 WAR, but he bumped that up to 4.1 WAR last year in the best season of his career.

Jeff Samardzija, first two years as a starter (combined)

Jeff Samardzija, 2014 season

Considering just the years he’s spent as a starting pitcher, in 2014 Samardzija set career bests in innings pitched, ERA, FIP, xFIP, WHIP, BB%, HR/FB%, BABIP, and GB%. When a player takes a step forward like this, there’s always the question of how sustainable this step forward is.

With Samardzija, it’s important to break down his 2014 season between the time he spent with the Chicago Cubs and the time he spent with the Oakland A’s.

The two statistics that stand out most are Samardzija’s BB% and BABIP in his time with the A’s. Samardzija made his last start with the Cubs on June 28^th, 2014. At that point, he had a 6.9% BB% and .305 BABIP. His BB% was a career best and his BABIP was almost a perfect match for the BABIP allowed by the Cub’s team during the entire 2014 season (.304).

After the trade to Oakland, Samardzija’s BB% plummeted from 6.9% with the Cubs to 2.8% with the A’s and his BABIP also dropped significantly, from .305 to .262. Samardzija’s BABIP with Oakland was even better than Oakland’s team BABIP during the 2014 season (.272).

So, is this much-improved walk rate over a half-season of starts sustainable? Considering that before coming to Oakland, Samardzija had pitched 496 1/3 innings as a starter over the previous two-and-a-half years with a walk rate of 7.9%, I would say it’s not. He had a good stretch of 16 starts with a much lower walk rate than his career average, but it’s unlikely that he can sustain that low walk rate going into 2015.

Then there’s the issue of his superlative BABIP with the Oakland A’s. Again, through 496 1/3 innings pitched as a starter in the two-and-a-half-years before coming to Oakland, Samardzija had allowed a BABIP of .306. With Oakland, it dropped to .262. As mentioned above, Oakland’s team BABIP was .272 last year, so that drop for Samardzija is not surprising given that he was pitching in front of a better defense. Now that Samardzija is with the White Sox, he won’t have such a good defense behind him. The White Sox allowed a .306 BABIP last year and were in the bottom tier of all teams in baseball defensively. Since then, they’ve added Adam LaRoche, Melky Cabrera, and Emilio Bonifacio. LaRoche and Cabrera have not been good defenders over the last two years, while Bonifacio was good last year but not notably good in previous years. The bottom line is that it doesn’t look like the White Sox defense will do Samardzija any favors in 2015.

So, what should we expect from Samardzija in 2015?

Mike Podhorzer has written about the difference in ballparks as Samardzija moves from the O.co Coliseum in Oakland to US Cellular in Chicago. The takeaway is that the Cell could help Samardzija pick up a few more strikeouts at the expense of more walks and more homers allowed. Here are the strikeout, walk, and home run park factors for Wrigley, O.co, and US Cellular:

In his three years as a starting pitcher in more pitcher-friendly ballparks, Samardzija has a strikeout rate of 23.7%, a walk rate of 7%, and a HR/FB% of 12.2%. To project Samardzija for 2015, we could slightly increase his strikeout rate, up his walk rate by a bit more, and his home run rate by even more, and factor in regression as Samardzija turns 30 years old. The following chart shows Samardzija’s numbers over the last three seasons, along with the average for those three seasons and what I would project for Samardzija in 2015.

To projection Samardzija’s stats for 2015, I used the formula for FIP and plugged in expected strikeouts walks and home runs, based on my projections above. This produced a FIP for Samardzija of 3.71. In his career as a starter, Samardzija’s FIP has been about 0.20 lower than his actual ERA. Last year, the White Sox team FIP was 0.20 lower than their team ERA. With this in mind, I bumped up my projection for Samardzija’s ERA to 3.80.

For WHIP, I used the walk rate I projected above and a .305 BABIP to come up with hits allowed and project a 1.26 WHIP for Samardzija in 2015. Here is a chart with my projection, along with projections from Steamer, ZiPS, and the FanGraphs Fans:

The Fans are more optimistic in their projection for Samardzija’s innings, ERA, and WHIP. I’m more optimistic than Steamer and the FanGraphs Fans that Samardzija will strike out a few more batters, but I also expect him to walk more and have a higher WHIP. Samardzija was the 22^nd starting pitcher drafted in the recent FanGraphs Early Mock Draft, taken ahead of Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Arrieta, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, among others. I will definitely be moving Samardzija down my draft sheets a bit.

The following is a look at the first 30 relief pitchers taken in the FanGraphs Early Mock Draft, with a comparison to their rankings based on 2015 Steamer projections.

Relief Pitchers: 1-10

Relief pitchers started being drafted slowly, with Craig Kimbrel being the first taken towards the end of the 4^th round, followed three picks later by Aroldis Chapman. There was a bit of a gap until Greg Holland was taken in the 6^th round, then another bit of a gap until reliever started going quickly. Six relievers were taken over thirteen picks in rounds 7 and 8.

The table below shows the first 10 relief pitchers drafted in this mock, along with their Steamer rank and the difference between their Steamer rank and the spot they were drafted. Pitchers with a positive difference were taken higher than their Steamer projection would suggest. Those with a negative difference were taken later than Steamer would have expected.

Based on Steamer projections, Chapman and Kimbrel are ahead of the pack, then there is a large group of reliever that could easily move up or down the rankings based on a few saves here, a slightly higher or lower ERA/WHIP there, and small adjustments to their strikeout numbers.

In this grouping, Dellin Betances is ranked 16^th by Steamer, mainly because he is projected for only 23 saves as we don’t yet know what the Yankees will do with both Betances and Andrew Miller at the back-end of their bullpen. With more saves, he moves up.

The big overshoot here appears to be Zach Britton, ranked 26^th by Steamer among relievers thanks to a pedestrian 3.21 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and sub-par 7.7 K/9. Britton is projected for 34 saves. Last year, he had 37 saves even though he didn’t get his first one until May 15^th. As a team, the Orioles had 53 saves, tied for third in all of baseball. They were tops in MLB in saves in 2013 and second in 2012. If they continue to get saves at that pace, Britton should easily beat that projection.

Relief Pitchers: 11-20

The next 10 relief pitchers were taken over rounds 12 through 15. Here’s the chart:

Based on Steamer projections, Joaquin Benoit looks like a bargain, as he was taken 20^th but is ranked 7^th. The risk with Benoit is a potential trade during the season. He’s in the final year of a 2-year contract (with a club option for 2016) and Padres’ GM A.J. Preller is not shy about making trades. If the Padres aren’t in contention come June or July, Benoit could be shipped out.

Koji Uehara and Glen Perkins were also taken a bit later than Steamer would suggest. Uehara will be 40 years old and has a career-high of 26 saves (last season). Perkins may not get many save opportunities with the Twins this year because of their last-place projection for the AL Central. With these two relievers, it’s perhaps not surprising to see them both drop a bit.

Francisco Rodriguez had 44 saves last year but has not found a team to play on in 2015. Despite that, he was the 15^th reliever drafted, taken ahead of guys with set jobs like Storen, Rodney, Perkins, and Papelbon.

Relief Pitchers: 21-30

Jonathan Broxton looks like an overdraft here, but he is expected to be the Brewer’s closer at this point, so he could easily finish higher in the relief pitcher rankings than Steamer’s current projection of 37^th.

Jake McGee (taken 25^th, ranked 8^th by Steamer) and Brad Boxberger (taken 29^th, ranked 18^th) are teammates in Tampa Bay. McGee finished last season as the Ray’s closer but had surgery in December to remove loose bodies from his shoulder. He is expected to miss at least the first month, which may allow Brad Boxberger (14.5 K/9 in 2014) to get some early-season saves, although veteran Grant Balfour is still in the mix. If one of them gets off to a good start, McGee may go back to a setup role.

Relievers in the Steamer’s Top 30 who were not drafted among the top thirty relievers drafted in this mock:

Andrew Miller (15^th)

Wade Davis (22^nd)

Hunter Strickland (27^th)

Jason Grilli (28^th)

Ken Giles (29^th)

The chart below shows each owner’s reliever picks.

• Colin Zarzycki waited longest to take a closer, not drafting Hector Rondon until the 17^th round, then adding Neftali Feliz in the 20^th.
• Zach Sanders, on the other hand, took a couple of top relievers in round 4 (Kimbrel) and 8 (Melancon), then added a guy with potential in the 20^th (Boxberger).
• Steamer most likes the reliever picks of wydiyd. Kenley Jansen was the 4^th reliever taken (ranked 3^rd by Steamer), Koji Uehara was 13^th (ranked 6^th by Steamer), and Joaquin Benoit was taken 20^th (ranked 7^th by Steamer).

Apparently, there’s a big game in another popular American sport coming up in a couple weeks and many fans of this other sport head to Vegas this time of year to lay down a proposition or two on this big game. Actually, big game doesn’t really do it justice. It’s more like a great game or a fantastic game or maybe even a . . . super game (so as to not be sued for violating any trademarks or licensing agreements, I will leave it at that).

If you’re a baseball fan and you happen to be in Vegas laying down some moolah on this . . . super game . . . you might want to consider throwing a few Benjamins on your favorite baseball team. The most-recent Las Vegas odds to win the World Series are out and there could be some money to be made here. Caveat: I’ve never bet on baseball, nor have I ever been to Vegas, but I would like to go someday because I’m a big fan of The Blue Man Group. I did win $175 on a $5 bet on number 11 the first time I ever played roulette, so I’m not a total novice when it comes to gambling.

Anyway, using the Vegas odds of winning the World Series and the Steamer projected Standings, there are some strong plays on the board. Let’s look at each division, in chart form, starting with the NL West:

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

It’s interesting that Vegas is really excited about the Padres, at least compared to the Rockies and Diamondbacks, who don’t project to be that much worse but who face significantly longer odds. With the Giants’ recent success, they are probably the best play here. Even if you don’t think they can beat out the Dodgers for the division, they’ve proven that they can make a run if they get into the playoffs as a wild card team. Of course, this is an odd-numbered year, so you might want to save your money and look elsewhere.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

The play here is the Pittsburgh Pirates. They are projected to be just a game off the division lead, but with odds at 30 to 1. In a world full of parity, every team in baseball would have a .500 record and 30 to 1 odds and there would be no supermodels. That would be a sad, sad, world. In this world, the Pirates are projected to be better than .500 and should have better odds than 30 to 1. Meanwhile, Vegas is excited about the Cubs, giving them 14 to 1 odds (they opened at 45 to 1). Some of you may remember that in Back to the Future, the Cubs won the 2015 World Series (in a 5-game sweep over Miami) after starting the year with 100 to 1 odds. This could be the Cubs’ year, McFly!

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

There aren’t any real good plays here. As good as the Nationals look now, especially after acquiring Max Scherzer, it would be foolish to put any money on a major league team at 5 to 1 odds to win the World Series. There’s just too much unpredictability come playoff time. None of the teams in this division have appealing odds, unless your name is Lloyd Christmas, in which case you have to jump all over the Phillies at 300 to 1 (“So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”).

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

There’s no love for the Tampa Bay Rays in Vegas, with odds of 75 to 1 in what still looks like a tight division. The Rays opened at 35 to 1. Apparently, Las Vegas does not like their recent moves. Based on Steamer projections, the Rays look like your best longshot option of any team in baseball.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

No team jumps out here, but if I had to pick one, I’d take the Indians at 25 to 1. They look to be right there with the Tigers to win the division, but with slightly worse odds, so you’d get a bigger payout if they went all the way.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

I guess when you lose Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Jeff Samardzija, Jon Lester, and Derek Norris, your odds to win the World Series should get worse, but 60 to 1, really? Steamer still has Oakland in the mix for the AL Wild Card and just 5 games back of the Mariners for the division.

Here is a look at the teams in each league who are projected to be in contention, along with their Vegas odds:

The Pirates have worse odds than the Padres and Mets, neither of whom are projected to contend for the Wild Card or even finish .500. Aye, this be the National League team you should wager your doubloons on and win some booty!

In the American League, your best options are the Athletics and Rays, and possibly the Blue Jays. The A’s are right in the mix for the wild card, yet have the same odds as the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves. The Rays are projected to be nearly as good as the A’s and have even worse odds, better than only four teams in all of baseball—the Phillies, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Twins. The Blue Jays don’t look to be as good a play as the A’s and Rays but, like the Pirates, they have longer odds than other similarly competitive teams.

So, if you’re down in Vegas wagering on that super game coming up on the 1^st of February, think about putting some money down on the A’s and don’t forget to see The Blue Man Group.

The following is a look at the 41^st through 60^th starting pitcher taken in the FanGraphs Early Mock Draft, with a comparison to their rankings based on 2015 Steamer projections.

Starting Pitchers: 41-50

The table below shows starting pitchers taken 41^st through 50^th in this mock, along with their Steamer rank and the difference between their Steamer rank and the spot they were drafted. Pitchers with a positive difference were taken higher than their Steamer projection would suggest. Those with a negative difference were taken later than Steamer would have expected.

Justin Verlander was drafted as the 41^st starting pitcher in this mock, but Steamer doesn’t see Verlander being worth that pick, pegging him for 63^rd among starting pitchers. Verlander is coming off his worst season since 2008, when he had a 4.84 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Verlander bounced back from that ugly 2008 season with a much-improved 2009 season (3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), but he was 26 at the time. Now he’s 32 and less likely to bounce back like he did in his youth.

Chris Archer was another guy who went earlier than Steamer projections would expect. Archer was the 43^rd pitcher drafted but is ranked 66^th by Steamer. In his three years in the major leagues, Archer has a career 3.39 ERA. His FIP (3.64), xFIP (3.75), and SIERA (3.78) are not as favorable. Steamer is projecting an ERA of 3.96 and 1.31 WHIP, which knocks him out of the top 60 starting pitchers.

Another pitcher not well regarded by Steamer is Andrew Cashner, taken 47^th among starting pitchers but ranked 65^th. Cashner has a career ERA of 3.25 but Steamer is projecting a 3.96 ERA in 2015. Cashner’s ZiPS projection is a much more favorable 3.27 ERA.

Finally, Mat Latos has the biggest discrepancy of any pitcher in the top 50 between where he was drafted (49^th starting pitcher off the board) and where Steamer would rank him (97^th). Latos has not had an ERA over 3.50 since a 10-games stint as a rookie in 2009, but Steamer is projecting a 4.12 ERA for 2015. To be fair, that’s not far off Latos’ 2014 FIP (3.99) or SIERA (4.08).

The Steamer “bargains” in this group of ten pitchers were Danny Salazar, Jose Fernandez, Ian Kennedy, and Scott Kazmir.

Danny Salazar was a popular pick heading into last season after a very good 10-game major league debut in 2013 (3.12 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 11.3 K/9). On the face of it, Salazar struggled last year, finishing with a 4.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The biggest culprit was a .343 BABIP, though, and his FIP (3.52), xFIP (3.45), and SIERA (3.33) were much better than his ERA. Also, he struck out 9.8 batters per nine innings. I don’t have a projection from ZiPS for Salazar, but his Steamer projection (3.62 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) is better than Cairo (3.69, 1.51) or Davenport (3.95, 1.30). Taken as the 44^th starting pitcher, Steamer sees great value here.

Jose Fernandez was taken two picks after Salazar (45^th starting pitcher), but is even more well-liked by Steamer (ranked 17^th). In 36 major league starts over two seasons, Fernandez has a career ERA of 2.25 and WHIP of 0.97. Fernandez is coming off Tommy John surgery and is likely to miss the first couple months of the season. Steamer is projecting 20 starts with a 2.93 ERA. The current Fans projections have Fernandez with 18 starts and a 3.00 ERA. ZiPS projects 19 starts and a 2.87 ERA. You know he’ll be good, it’s just a matter of how many innings he’ll provide and where you want to draft him to get those quality innings.

Scott Kazmir was the 50^th starting pitcher drafted and is ranked 31^st by Steamer. Kazmir has had a long strange journey in his major league career that led him to miss the entire 2012 season. He came back with the Indians in 2013 and had a 4.04 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Last year he pitched for Oakland and had his best season since 2007, finishing with a 3.55 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Steamer is projecting a 3.71 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, good for 31^st among starting pitchers.

Starting Pitchers: 51-60

The final group of pitchers who rounded out the top sixty starting pitchers taken in this mock draft are a mixed bunch. There were four guys taken at least 15 picks later than Steamer would suggest (Homer Bailey, Anibal Sanchez, Phil Hughes, and Francisco Liriano). These are the “bargains” of the 16^th, 17^th, and 18^th rounds.

Homer Bailey had his 2014 season cut short in August with a flexor mass tendon injury. He’s been a solid major league pitcher for the last three years (3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) and Steamer is projecting more of the same (3.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).

Anibal Sanchez is also coming off a year with some injuries. He missed time in early May and again in August and September, finishing the year with 21 starts and 126 innings pitched (3.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). Steamer projects Sanchez to be relatively healthy, with 28 starts (3.80 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). He is ranked 38^th among starting pitchers according to Steamer projections but wasn’t taken until the 53^rd pick in this mock.

Phil Hughes is an interesting character. From 2011 to 2013, Hughes had an ERA of 4.83 with a 1.37 WHIP. He struck out 7.3 batters per nine innings and walked 2.5 per nine. Last year, he suddenly decided to never walk anyone, dropping his BB/9 to a microscopic 0.7. He also upped his strikeout rate to 8.0 K/9 and finished with a 3.52 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Steamer has some belief in the 2014 version of Philip Hughes, projecting a 3.91 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 1.6 BB/9, good enough to be the 34^th-best starting pitcher based on Steamer projections. Hughes was the 54^th starting pitcher taken, so if you agree with Steamer that Phil Hughes can keep that walk rate down, then hop on board the Phil Hughes Express.

The fourth “bargain” taken among this group of pitchers was Francisco Liriano, on the board until the 208^th pick, the 60^th starting pitcher drafted. In his two seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Liriano has a 3.20 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. For the rest of his career, he has a 4.40 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He re-signed with the Pirates and Steamer likes him for 2015—3.59 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 (ranked 33^rd among starting pitchers).

In this last group of pitchers, there were two guys who stood out as overdrafts, based on Steamer—Henderson Alvarez and James Paxton. Alvarez had a shiny 2.65 ERA in 2014, but his FIP (3.58), xFIP (3.57), and SIERA (3.70) say “buyer beware.” The biggest issue with Alvarez is a low strikeout rate, just 4.8 K/9 for his career. He was the 52^nd pitcher drafted but is ranked 84^th by Steamer.

Finally, James Paxton was the 56^th starting pitcher drafted but Steamer has him way down at 118^th. In 17 starts over two seasons with the Mariners, Paxton has a career 2.66 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, but Steamer is projecting a 4.14 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. That seems way off to me, but I’m not a computer program designed to project baseball statistics. The Fans Projections (10 so far) expect Paxton to be much better than that—3.25 ERA, 1.23 WHIP.

After 60 starting pitchers were drafted, there were 11 starting pitchers who had not yet been drafted, including three in the top 30: