Analyzing the FanGraphs Early Mock Draft from an Outsider’s Point of View – RPs 1-30

The following is a look at the first 30 relief pitchers taken in the FanGraphs Early Mock Draft, with a comparison to their rankings based on 2015 Steamer projections.

Relief Pitchers: 1-10

Relief pitchers started being drafted slowly, with Craig Kimbrel being the first taken towards the end of the 4^th round, followed three picks later by Aroldis Chapman. There was a bit of a gap until Greg Holland was taken in the 6^th round, then another bit of a gap until reliever started going quickly. Six relievers were taken over thirteen picks in rounds 7 and 8.

The table below shows the first 10 relief pitchers drafted in this mock, along with their Steamer rank and the difference between their Steamer rank and the spot they were drafted. Pitchers with a positive difference were taken higher than their Steamer projection would suggest. Those with a negative difference were taken later than Steamer would have expected.

FanGraphs Mock Draft RPs 1-10 vs Steamer Rankings
PCK	RND	$$	RP-Rnk	NAME	Steamer Rank	Difference
46	4	$23	1	Craig Kimbrel	2	1
49	5	$28	2	Aroldis Chapman	1	-1
71	6	$19	3	Greg Holland	4	1
82	7	$20	4	Kenley Jansen	3	-1
83	7	$13	5	David Robertson	10	5
85	8	$13	6	Trevor Rosenthal	11	5
92	8	$11	7	Dellin Betances	16	9
93	8	$17	8	Sean Doolittle	5	-3
94	8	$14	9	Mark Melancon	9	0
126	11	$5	10	Zach Britton	26	16

 

Based on Steamer projections, Chapman and Kimbrel are ahead of the pack, then there is a large group of reliever that could easily move up or down the rankings based on a few saves here, a slightly higher or lower ERA/WHIP there, and small adjustments to their strikeout numbers.

In this grouping, Dellin Betances is ranked 16^th by Steamer, mainly because he is projected for only 23 saves as we don’t yet know what the Yankees will do with both Betances and Andrew Miller at the back-end of their bullpen. With more saves, he moves up.

The big overshoot here appears to be Zach Britton, ranked 26^th by Steamer among relievers thanks to a pedestrian 3.21 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and sub-par 7.7 K/9. Britton is projected for 34 saves. Last year, he had 37 saves even though he didn’t get his first one until May 15^th. As a team, the Orioles had 53 saves, tied for third in all of baseball. They were tops in MLB in saves in 2013 and second in 2012. If they continue to get saves at that pace, Britton should easily beat that projection.

Relief Pitchers: 11-20

The next 10 relief pitchers were taken over rounds 12 through 15. Here’s the chart:

FanGraphs Mock Draft RPs 11-20 vs Steamer Rankings
PCK	RND	$$	RP-Rnk	NAME	Steamer Rank	Difference
140	12	$11	11	Cody Allen	13	2
152	13	$5	12	Huston Street	25	13
154	13	$17	13	Koji Uehara	6	-7
156	13	$1	14	Steve Cishek	14	0
157	14	-$3	15	Francisco Rodriguez	65	50
158	14	$6	16	Drew Storen	24	8
161	14	$8	17	Fernando Rodney	19	2
165	14	$12	18	Glen Perkins	12	-6
175	15	$6	19	Jonathan Papelbon	23	4
178	15	$15	20	Joaquin Benoit	7	-13

 

Based on Steamer projections, Joaquin Benoit looks like a bargain, as he was taken 20^th but is ranked 7^th. The risk with Benoit is a potential trade during the season. He’s in the final year of a 2-year contract (with a club option for 2016) and Padres’ GM A.J. Preller is not shy about making trades. If the Padres aren’t in contention come June or July, Benoit could be shipped out.

Koji Uehara and Glen Perkins were also taken a bit later than Steamer would suggest. Uehara will be 40 years old and has a career-high of 26 saves (last season). Perkins may not get many save opportunities with the Twins this year because of their last-place projection for the AL Central. With these two relievers, it’s perhaps not surprising to see them both drop a bit.

Francisco Rodriguez had 44 saves last year but has not found a team to play on in 2015. Despite that, he was the 15^th reliever drafted, taken ahead of guys with set jobs like Storen, Rodney, Perkins, and Papelbon.

Relief Pitchers: 21-30

FanGraphs Mock Draft RPs 21-30 vs Steamer Rankings
PCK	RND	$$	RP-Rnk	NAME	Steamer Rank	Difference
192	16	$9	21	Brett Cecil	17	-4
196	17	$8	22	Addison Reed	21	-1
198	17	$3	23	Santiago Casilla	30	7
201	17	$8	24	Hector Rondon	20	-4
222	19	$15	25	Jake McGee	8	-17
230	20	$1	26	Jonathan Broxton	37	11
232	20	$1	27	Neftali Feliz	35	8
234	20	$1	28	Joe Nathan	34	6
238	20	$9	29	Brad Boxberger	18	-11
239	20	$2	30	Jenrry Mejia	31	1

 

Jonathan Broxton looks like an overdraft here, but he is expected to be the Brewer’s closer at this point, so he could easily finish higher in the relief pitcher rankings than Steamer’s current projection of 37^th.

Jake McGee (taken 25^th, ranked 8^th by Steamer) and Brad Boxberger (taken 29^th, ranked 18^th) are teammates in Tampa Bay. McGee finished last season as the Ray’s closer but had surgery in December to remove loose bodies from his shoulder. He is expected to miss at least the first month, which may allow Brad Boxberger (14.5 K/9 in 2014) to get some early-season saves, although veteran Grant Balfour is still in the mix. If one of them gets off to a good start, McGee may go back to a setup role.

Relievers in the Steamer’s Top 30 who were not drafted among the top thirty relievers drafted in this mock:

Andrew Miller (15^th)

Wade Davis (22^nd)

Hunter Strickland (27^th)

Jason Grilli (28^th)

Ken Giles (29^th)

The chart below shows each owner’s reliever picks.

Owner	Reliever	Pick #	Round	RP-rnk	Stmr-Rnk	Difference
Blue Sox	David Robertson	83	7	5	10	5
Blue Sox	Drew Storen	158	14	16	24	8
Blue Sox	Jonathan Broxton	230	20	26	37	11
ColinZarzycki	Hector Rondon	201	17	24	20	-4
ColinZarzycki	Neftali Feliz	232	20	27	35	8
cwik	Huston Street	152	13	12	25	13
cwik	Fernando Rodney	161	14	17	19	2
DanSchwartz	Aroldis Chapman	49	5	2	1	-1
DanSchwartz	Brett Cecil	192	16	21	17	-4
enosarris	Sean Doolittle	93	8	8	5	-3
enosarris	Glen Perkins	165	14	18	12	-6
enosarris	Addison Reed	196	17	22	21	-1
jhicks	Zach Britton	126	11	10	26	16
jhicks	Santiago Casilla	198	17	23	30	7
jhicks	Jake McGee	222	19	25	8	-17
Paul Sporer	Dellin Betances	92	8	7	16	9
Paul Sporer	Cody Allen	140	12	11	13	2
Pod	Greg Holland	71	6	3	4	1
Pod	Jenrry Mejia	239	20	30	31	1
Scott Spratt	Jonathan Papelbon	175	15	19	23	4
Scott Spratt	Joe Nathan	234	20	28	34	6
wiers	Trevor Rosenthal	85	8	6	11	5
wiers	Steve Cishek	156	13	14	14	0
wiers	Francisco Rodriguez	157	14	15	65	50
wydiyd	Kenley Jansen	82	7	4	3	-1
wydiyd	Koji Uehara	154	13	13	6	-7
wydiyd	Joaquin Benoit	178	15	20	7	-13
Zach Sanders	Craig Kimbrel	46	4	1	2	1
Zach Sanders	Mark Melancon	94	8	9	9	0
Zach Sanders	Brad Boxberger	238	20	29	18	-11

 

• Colin Zarzycki waited longest to take a closer, not drafting Hector Rondon until the 17^th round, then adding Neftali Feliz in the 20^th.
• Zach Sanders, on the other hand, took a couple of top relievers in round 4 (Kimbrel) and 8 (Melancon), then added a guy with potential in the 20^th (Boxberger).
• Steamer most likes the reliever picks of wydiyd. Kenley Jansen was the 4^th reliever taken (ranked 3^rd by Steamer), Koji Uehara was 13^th (ranked 6^th by Steamer), and Joaquin Benoit was taken 20^th (ranked 7^th by Steamer).