Analyzing the FanGraphs’ Mock Draft from an Outsider’s Point of View – OF (part 1)

As an avid reader of FanGraphs, I’ve been following the ongoing mock draft and thought it would be interesting to compare the results to the dollar value rankings I created using Steamer’s 2015 projections.

UPDATE: I downloaded the chat spreadsheet and the following commentary is up through the middle of the 21^st round, pick #249 (Rick Porcello). Here is a breakdown, position-by-position. I’ve included the overall pick and the dollar value for that player based on 2015 Steamer projections in parentheses.

Outfield

The top three picks in the FanGraphs Mock Draft were outfielders Mike Trout (1^st–$55), Andrew McCutchen (2^nd–$39), and Giancarlo Stanton (3^rd–$48).

At the top of the outfield rankings is the amazing Mike Trout, who can basically do anything on the baseball field. He’s the clear-cut top pick. The next two outfielders drafted were Andrew McCutchen and Giancarlo Stanton. Steamer projects Stanton to be more valuable than McCutchen, with a career-high in runs scored and homers. McCutchen is Trout-like, but with fewer homers, runs, and RBIs projected. After Trout, you could go either way with pick #2. You want big time power, take Stanton. You want power and steals, take McCutchen. I prefer McCutchen myself.

Late in the first round, there was a run during which six outfielders were drafted between pick #9 and pick #23. Jose Bautista (9^th–$42) was the fourth outfielder taken but Steamer actually likes him more than McCutchen. Bautista had 673 plate appearances last year and is projected for 653 this year. He will be 34, though, and in the two seasons before last year he was limited to 399 and 528 plate appearances. Just based on age, he’s a little bit of a risk compared to the other top 10 outfielders. Carlos Gomez (12^th–$27) was next, then Yasiel Puig (13^th–$31). Puig is more valuable because he’s projected for more runs, RBI, and a higher batting average, while Gomez has the edge in projected steals. Three picks after Puig came the back-to-back selections of Jacoby Ellsbury (16^th–$24) and Adam Jones (17^th—$29). The edge here for Jones comes in homers and RBI, while Ellsbury should steal many more bases. The final outfielder taken in the 2^nd round was Bryce Harper. After two injury-shortened seasons, Steamer is projecting Harper to play just as much as he did in his debut season (projected for 594 plate appearances) and hit 25 homers with 10 stolen bases.

Four more outfielders were taken in the third round, all within seven picks of each other. The controversial Ryan Braun (28^th–$27) was the first outfielder taken in the third round, directly followed by 2014 breakout player Michael Brantley (29^th–$20). The next pick was Justin Upton (30^th–$14) and Carlos Gonzalez (34^th–$24) came four picks later. Let’s look at this group of outfielders, starting with their averages over the last three years:

451 AB, 69 R, 23 HR, 77 RBI, 15 SB, .295 AVG—Ryan Braun

573 AB, 74 R, 12 HR, 77 RBI, 17 SB, .301 AVG—Michael Brantley

559 AB, 93 R, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 11 SB, .271 AVG—Justin Upton

390 AB, 65 R, 20 HR, 64 RBI, 15 SB, .288 AVG—Carlos Gonzalez

Based on the last three years, Upton looks like the most valuable outfielder among this group, but his Steamer projection is the worst of the bunch. Braun missed two-thirds of the 2013 season because of a PED suspension and was not the hitter he’d been when he got back on the field in 2014. Carlos Gonzalez is risky because he seemingly gets injured every year. Michael Brantley had the best 2014 season among these players, but it was out of line with what he had done before. Here are the 2015 Steamer projections for these four players:

546 AB, 79 R, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 13 SB, .278 AVG—Ryan Braun ($27)

575 AB, 75 R, 13 HR, 72 RBI, 14 SB, .290 AVG—Michael Brantley ($20)

530 AB, 71 R, 23 HR, 74 RBI, 8 SB, .253 AVG—Justin Upton ($14)

475 AB, 74 R, 24 HR, 77 RBI, 11 SB, .282 AVG—Carlos Gonzalez ($24)

Upton’s projection is the most interesting one here because it’s much worse than his three-year averages. He’s moving to a tough ballpark in San Diego and will be on a team that scored the fewest runs in baseball last year by a good margin, but his former team, the Atlanta Braves, scored the second-fewest runs last year and the Padres should be much better offensively in 2015 than they were in 2014.

Here is a comparison of Upton’s projections from Steamer, ZiPS, Cairo, and Davenport.

530 AB, 71 R, 23 HR, 74 RBI, 8 SB, .253 AVG—Justin Upton—Steamer ($14)

567 AB, 94 R, 26 HR, 85 RBI, 12 SB, .261 AVG—Justin Upton—ZiPS ($31)

564 AB, 86 R, 25 HR, 86 RBI, 10 SB, .265 AVG—Justin Upton—Cairo ($28)

515 AB, 68 R, 18 HR 76 RBI, 9 SB, .259 AVG—Justin Upton—Davenport ($12)

That’s a pretty big spread. Steamer and Davenport have Upton as a $12 to $14 player, while ZiPS and Cairo have him in the $28 to $31 range. At the high range, Upton would be a top 10 outfielder. At the low range, he’s outside the top 30. In this mock, he was the 12^th outfielder drafted.

Four outfielders were taken in the fourth round and all have similar value according to Steamer: Hunter Pence (38^th–$18), Corey Dickerson (42^nd–$18), Billy Hamilton (43^rd–$20), and Starling Marte (44^th–$18). Pence and Dickerson have similar overall projections and, thus, similar value. Hamilton’s projection for 68 steals makes him the top base-stealing outfielder out there, but he’ll hurt you in homers, RBI, and batting average. Marte isn’t likely to hit as many homers as Pence or Dickerson, but will steal more bases.

The fifth round saw three more outfielders taken, which meant 20 were now off the board.In this round, two younger players and a veteran were drafted, starting with J.D. Martinez (51^st–$19). Martinez didn’t hit much in his first three partial seasons in the major leagues (.251/.300/.387), but had a very good 2014 season (.315/.358/.553 with 23 homers in 123 games). Steamer doesn’t expect Martinez to reach those heights this year, but he’s still projected for 22 homers and 80 RBI. George Springer (55^th–$20) had a good half-season in 2014 and Steamer likes him to hit 28 homers and steal 15 bases in 2015, putting him in the top 20 among all outfielders. The veteran, Matt Kemp, doesn’t have such a rosy outlook. Moving to San Diego should bring his numbers down. He is ranked 38^th among outfielders based on Steamer projections and his Cairo and Davenport projections aren’t much better (no ZiPS yet).

FanGraphs Mock Draft Top-20 Outfielders versus Steamer Rankings
PCK	RND	$$	OF-Rnk	NAME	Steamer Rank	Difference
1	1	$55	1	Mike Trout	1	0
2	1	$48	2	Andrew McCutchen	4	+2
3	1	$42	3	Giancarlo Stanton	2	(-1)
9	1	$39	4	Jose Bautista	3	(-1)
12	1	$27	5	Carlos Gomez	8	+3
13	2	$31	6	Yasiel Puig	5	(-1)
16	2	$24	7	Jacoby Ellsbury	10	+3
17	2	$29	8	Adam Jones	6	(-2)
23	2	$25	9	Bryce Harper	9	0
28	3	$27	10	Ryan Braun	7	(-3)
29	3	$20	11	Michael Brantley	15	+4
30	3	$14	12	Justin Upton	32	+20
34	3	$24	13	Carlos Gonzalez	11	(-2)
38	4	$18	14	Hunter Pence	23	+9
42	4	$18	15	Corey Dickerson	21	+6
43	4	$20	16	Billy Hamilton	14	(-2)
44	4	$18	17	Starling Marte	22	+5
51	5	$19	18	J.D. Martinez	20	+2
55	5	$20	19	George Springer	18	(-1)
56	5	$11	20	Matt Kemp	38	+18

 

Final Notes for Part 1: Fifteen of the first twenty outfielders taken in the FanGraphs Mock Draft are ranked in the top 20 for outfielders based on Steamer projections. The outfielders drafted who are NOT ranked in the Steamer top 20 are Justin Upton (FanGraphs—12^th, Steamer—32^nd), Hunter Pence (FanGraphs—14^th, Steamer 23^rd), Corey Dickerson (FanGraphs—15^th, Steamer—21^st), Starling Marte (FanGraphs—17^th, Steamer—22^nd), and Matt Kemp (FanGraphs—20^th, Steamer—38^th). These are the guys that the FanGraphs mock drafters like more than Steamer.

The outfielders missing from the FanGraphs Top 20 but included in the Steamer Top 20 are Yoenis Cespedes (ranked 12^th by Steamer, $23), Charlie Blackmon (Steamer—13^th, $22), Jayson Werth (Steamer—16^th, $20), Jason Heyward (Steamer—17^th, $20), and Matt Holliday (Steamer—19^th, $19).

Up next, more outfielders.