Analyzing the FanGraphs’ Mock Draft from an Outsider’s Point of View — 3B

As an avid reader of FanGraphs, I’ve been following the ongoing mock draft and thought it would be interesting to compare the results to the dollar value rankings I created using Steamer’s 2015 projections.

I downloaded the draft spreadsheet partway through the 16^th round, just after pick 183 (Chase Headley). Here is a breakdown, position-by-position. I’ve included the overall pick and the dollar value for that player based on 2015 Steamer projections in parentheses.

Third Base

Four third basemen were drafted in the second and third rounds: Anthony Rendon (14^th–$26), Josh Donaldson (25^th–$24), Adrian Beltre (26^th–$30), and Evan Longoria (32^nd–$17). Rendon being the first third baseman drafted isn’t a surprise. He had a terrific 2014 season (111 R, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 17 SB, .287 AVG). Steamer projects regression in all of those categories, so his value drops from what he did last year. He also has youth on his side, being just 25 years old in 2015, and is in a good Washington Nationals’ lineup. His $26 valuation is based on second base eligibility (25 games there in 2014), so it is a little higher than if he were only eligible at third base.

Josh Donaldson was taken nine picks later and is projected for similar value, but in a different shape (more homers and RBI, fewer steals and a lower batting average). Adrian Beltre was taken with the very next pick and has the most valuable projection according to Steamer. He’s also heading into his age 36 season and saw his homers drop from 30 in 2013 to last year’s 19. Finally, Evan Longoria was taken six picks after Beltre. Longoria’s rate stats last year were well below his career averages (he hit .253/.320/.404), but Steamer sees a bounce-back to better numbers in 2015. Here are the projections for the upcoming season for these four players:

573 AB, 85 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 11 SB, .279 AVG—Anthony Rendon (14^th–$26)

558 AB, 83 R, 27 HR, 88 RBI, 5 SB, .264 AVG—Josh Donaldson (25^th–$24)

576 AB, 82 R, 24 HR, 94 RBI, 1 SB, .297 AVG—Adrian Beltre (26^th–$30)

567 AB, 78 R, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 3 SB, .256 AVG—Evan Longoria (32^nd–$17)

I would argue that Rendon, Donaldson, and Beltre belong on their own tier (in whatever order you prefer), with Longoria moving down to the next group.

In round 5, two more third basemen were taken within three picks of each other: Kyle Seager (57^th–$15) and Nolan Arenado (59^th–$18). The projections for these two are very similar:

562 AB, 75 R, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 7 SB, .262 AVG—Kyle Seager (57^th–$15)

571 AB, 73 R, 20 HR, 82 RBI, 3 SB, .282 AVG—Nolan Arenado (59^th–$18)

Seager has three straight years with similar production and will be 27 in 2015. He seems a good bet to hit that projection. He’s also played 155 or more games in each of the last three seasons. Arenado has two years in the big leagues, with the 133 games he played in 2013 being a career high (111 games last year). He’s younger and has the Coors Field advantage. I think you could go either way here and, as I mentioned above, I think Longoria fits better with these two than he does with the top three.

At the end of round 6 and into round 7, three more third basemen came off the board: David Wright (69^th–$8), Todd Frazier (75^th–$8), and Pablo Sandoval (78^th–$19). Wright is coming off an ugly season that saw him hit .269/.324/.374 with 8 homers in 134 games, but it was only two years ago that Wright slugged over .500, so he’s a good candidate to bounce back at least somewhat. He will be 32 years old, though. Todd Frazier had a very big 2014 season when he set career-highs in runs, homers, RBI, steals, and tied his career best in batting average. Steamer projects all of those numbers to come down this year. Sandoval projects to be significantly better than Wright or Frazier. He is moving to a better ballpark for hitters and a better lineup to produce runs and RBI. Let’s look at the three-year averages for these players:

515 AB, 69 R, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 13 SB, .294 AVG—David Wright (will be 32)

517 AB, 69 R, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 10 SB, .259 AVG—Todd Frazier (will be 29)

503 AB, 60 R, 14 HR, 72 RBI, 0 SB, .280 AVG—Pablo Sandoval (will be 28)

Over the last three years, they are essentially even in RBI. Wright and Frazier have the potential to steal some bases, while Sandoval won’t do anything for you there. Frazier comes with the best potential for home run production, but lowest batting average. For 2015, I would take Sandoval, then Frazier, then Wright.

Three more third basemen were taken in rounds 9, 10, and 11: Manny Machado (108^th–$12), Matt Carpenter (109^th–$5), and Josh Harrison (125^th–$12).

This is an interesting trio of players taken within 17 picks of each other. Machado is going to be 22 years old. He only played in 82 games last year, but played in 156 games in 2013 and scored 88 runs with 14 homers, 71 RBI, 6 steals, and a .283 batting average as a 20-year-old. With youth on his side, he has the greatest potential of these three, so it’s not surprising he was taken ahead of Carpenter and Harrison.

The Steamer projection for Carpenter seems low on runs, in particular. Carpenter scored 126 runs in 2013 and 99 last year, but is projected for just 81 this year, despite a .368 on-base percentage. He won’t hit many homers or steal many bases, so his value is in runs scored and a solid batting average. He’s boringly consistent.

Josh Harrison had a good 2014 season (77 R, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 18 SB, .315 AVG). If he were five years younger and played for the Red Sox, he would be getting the Mookie Betts love as a multi-position guy who can contribute in all five hitting categories. Unfortunately, Harrison doesn’t have a great history before 2014. In his three previous seasons with the Pirates, Harrison hit .250/.282/.367 with 7 homers and 13 steals in 532 at-bats. He’s projected by Steamer to be as valuable as Machado in 2015, but I believe the risk is higher. If you’re looking at these three on draft day, Machado is likely the best option, then you have to decide whether you want to go with the boringly consistent Matt Carpenter or the higher potential but bigger risk of Josh Harrison.

The last two third basemen taken at this point of the draft were Kris Bryant (155^th—[-$13]) and Chase Headley (183^rd–$6). Bryant is projected for negative value because Steamer has him getting roughly a half-season of major league playing time. His hitting production (39 R, 16 HR, 42 RBI, 5 SB, .261 AVG IN 267 AB) would move him way up the third base rankings if he were to get 500 at-bats. Chase Headley was taken in the 16^th round but his projections are pretty close to David Wright’s and Wright was taken ten rounds earlier. Here’s the comparison:

512 AB, 66 R, 16 HR, 65 RBI, 9 SB, .275 AVG—David Wright (69^th–$8)

518 AB, 69 R, 17 HR, 67 RBI, 8 SB, .257 AVG—Chase Headley (183^rd–$6)

If you believe in Steamer, you can pass on Wright in the earlier rounds and take Headley much later.

Final notes: I believe there’s a clear top three at third base in Rendon, Donaldson, and Beltre, which becomes a top two if Rendon is slotted at second base. Longoria belongs with Seager and Arenado in the next grouping. You could move Sandoval up to this group if you are encouraged by his move to the Red Sox. David Wright and Todd Frazier could be combined with Manny Machado, Matt Carpenter, and Josh Harrison to form a diverse group that will give you different options depending on your team needs and willingness to take some risks in your draft. Kris Bryant’s outlook is mainly dependent on playing time. Chase Headley is a fallback option that would allow you to bypass guys like David Wright and Todd Frazier in the earlier rounds. Finally, Pedro Alvarez had not yet been drafted when I downloaded the draft spreadsheet. He is a risky pick but could be as valuable as the David Wright/Todd Frazier/Chase Headley group.