Why Pillar Will Have a Career Year Offensively

Much like the 2017 season Kevin Pillar has had an excellent start to the 2018 season and looks like he is ready to break out offensively and show his true potential at the plate. In 2017, it looked like Pillar would achieve this but from mid-May onwards he dropped to his career norms. Kevin Pillar is one of the best defenders in baseball and is a gold glove candidate year after year. The purpose of this article is to project the offensive numbers for Pillar and show he will have a career year offensively. The cells with red text in the diagram below will be inputs that will be described throughout the article. The cells that do not have red text contain the following formulas for the projection.

Cell E2 (at-bats): =F2-N2-Q2-R2

Cell G2 (hits): =AK2*AA2+K2


Cell H2 (singles): =G2-I2-J2-K2


Cell I2 (doubles): =IF(AB2>0,E2/AB2,0)


Cell J2 (triples): =IF(AC2>0,E2/AC2,0)


Cell K2 (home runs): =AO2*AN2*(AA2+K2)


Cell L2 (runs scored): =AP2*(G2+N2+Q2-K2)+K2


Cell M2 (runs batted in): =AQ2*(AA2-R2)+(1.565*K2)+R2
1.565 represents an approximate average of the number of runs batted in per home run.

Cell N2 (walks): =AH2*F2

Cell O2 (intentional walks): =AI2*F2


Cell P2 (strikeouts): =AJ2*F2


Cell Q2 (hit by pitches): =IF(AD2>0,F2/AD2,0)


Cell R2 (sacrifice flies): =IF(AE2>0,F2/AE2,0)


Cell S2 (stolen bases): =AF2*(H2+I2+N2+Q2)*AG2


Cell T2 (caught stealings): =AF2*(H2+I2+N2+Q2)*(1-AG2)

Cell U2 (batting average): =IF(G2>0,G2/E2,0)


Cell V2 (on-base percentage): =(G2+N2+Q2)/(E2+N2+Q2+R2)

Cell W2 (slugging percentage): =(H2+(2*I2)+(3*J2)+(4*K2))/E2

Cell X2 (on-base plus slugging percentage): =V2+W2


Cell Y2 (isolated slugging percentage): =W2-U2  

Cell Z2 (weighted on-base average): =(0.687*(N2-O2)+0.718*Q2+0.881*H2+1.256*I2+1.594*J2+2.065*K2)/(E2+N2-O2+R2+Q2)

Cell AA2 (balls in play): =E2-P2-K2+R2

Cell AM2 (line drive percentage): =1-AL2-AN2

 

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K
1	Player	League	Team	Pos	AB	PA	HITS	1B	2B	3B	HR
2	Kevin Pillar	AL	TOR	CF

	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V
1	R	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SF	SB	CS	AVG	OBP
2

	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AG
1	SLG	OPS	ISO	wOBA	BIP	AB/2B	AB/3B	PA/HBP	PA/SF	SBA/TOB	SB%
2

	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AM	AN	AO	AP	AQ
1	BB%	IBB%	K%	BABIP	GB%	LD%	FB%	HR/FB	R/TOB	RBI/TOB
2

For the remainder of the article, statistics for Kevin Pillar will be discussed that will contribute input to the spreadsheet in order to fill out the formulas as presented above. Plate appearances (PA) which is cell F2 in the spreadsheet will be discussed first. The number of PA’s Pillar had in the 2015, 2016 and 2017 seasons were 628, 584 and 632 respectively. In 2016 Pillar spent time on the DL with a thumb sprain, so I will take the average of the 2015 and 2017 plate appearances when he played almost every day. Pillar’s predicted plate appearances for 2018 will be 630.

Season	Team	AB	2B	3B	AB/2B	AB/3B
2015	Blue Jays	586	31	2	18.9	293.0
2016	Blue Jays	548	35	2	15.7	274.0
2017	Blue Jays	587	37	1	15.9	587.0

The above chart shows the at bats per double rate (AB/2B which is the # of At Bats/# of doubles) and similarly at bats per triple rate (AB/3B) over the past 3 seasons. Pillar has increased the amount of doubles in each season since 2015, and this season Pillar leads MLB with 18 doubles and I predict he will stay near the top of the league in doubles which will project to a career high at bats per double rate of 13. Discounting last season where Pillar only had one triple and an AB/3B rate of 587, I will take the average between the 2015 and 2017 numbers to get a rate of 283.5.

Next, I will discuss plate appearances per Hit by Pitch (PA/HBP) and Plate Appearances per Sacrifice Fly (PA/SF). Since it is unpredictable how much a batter will be hit by a pitch I will use the three year average of 109.4. For PA/SF I will also take the three year average and arrive at 177 for 2018.

Season	Team	PA	HBP	SF	PA/HBP	PA/SF
2015	Blue Jays	628	5	5	125.6	125.6
2016	Blue Jays	584	6	3	97.3	194.7
2017	Blue Jays	632	6	3	105.3	210.7

Next, Stolen Base attempts per times on base (SBA/TOB) and Stolen Base percentage SB% will be discussed. Time on base (TOB) is calculated by adding total hits, walks, and hit by pitch of a player. Stolen base percentage is the number of stolen bases divided by the number of attempts. The data for the 2015-2017 seasons are shown in the table below. To arrive at SBA/TOB for 2018 take the 3-year average 2015-17 and arrive at SBA/TOB= 0.124. For SB% just consider 2016 and 2017 where the numbers where very similar and take the average and arrive at a SB% of 70% for 2018.

Season	Team	SB	CS	TOB
2015	Blue Jays	25	4	196
2016	Blue Jays	14	6	176
2017	Blue Jays	15	6	189

Season	Team	SBA	SBA/TOB	SB%
2015	Blue Jays	29	0.148	86%
2016	Blue Jays	20	0.114	70%
2017	Blue Jays	21	0.111	71%

Next walk (BB), strikeout (K) and Intentional walk (IBB) percentage along with Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) will be discussed. These values for the last 3 seasons are tabulated below.

Season	Team	PA	Walks (BB)	BB%	Strikouts (K)
2015	Blue Jays	628	28	4.46%	85
2016	Blue Jays	584	24	4.11%	90
2017	Blue Jays	632	33	5.22%	95

Season	Team	K%	BABIP	Intentional Walks (IBB)	IBB%
2015	Blue Jays	13.5%	0.306	1	0.16%
2016	Blue Jays	15.4%	0.306	0	0.00%
2017	Blue Jays	15.0%	0.280	0	0.00%

As can be seen above, Pillar’s BB% increased from the 2016 season in 2017. So far in 2018 Pillar has a BB% of 5.6%. Pillar is showing more patience at the plate and I predict a career high in BB% of 5.5%. This increased patience at the plate will result in a lower strikeout rate of K%=18.5%. For the IBB% I will just take the three-year average to arrive at 0.053%. Pillar’s BABIP is way above his career high to start 2018 at 0.355. Pillar leads the league with 20 doubles and already has more RBI (17) then he did all of April and May 2017 with only 13 RBI.  While his BABIP will likely drop closer to his career average, Pillar will post a career high BABIP of 0.335.

We will now discuss Pillar’s Line Drive Percentage (LD%), Ground Ball percentage (GB%), his Fly Ball percentage (FB%) and Home runs per Fly Ball rates (HR/FB) over the past three seasons to help predict these values for the upcoming 2018 season.

Season	Team	LD%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB
2015	Blue Jays	21.9	41.4	36.7	6.6
2016	Blue Jays	20.5	45.6	33.9	4.5
2017	Blue Jays	20.4	43.1	36.4	8.9

LD% for 2018 mirrors the three-year average because the values are relatively similar over those 3 seasons and it works out to be 20.9%. Similarly, the GB% for 2018 is calculated from the 3-year average as 43.4%. FB%= 100-LD%-GB% which is equal to 35.7%. The three-year average HR/FB rate for Pillar is 6.7, which is the value I will use for his 2018 projection.

Finally, Kevin’s Runs per Times on Base (R/TOB) and Runs Batted In per Balls In Play (RBI/BIP) stats will be examined. R/TOB= (R-HR)/(H+BB+HBP-HR) and RBI/BIP= (RBI-(HR*1.565)-SF)/(AB-HR-SO). Tabulated below is Pillar’s hits, runs, home runs, walks, hit by pitch and sacrifice flies, strikeouts, at bats and runners batted in stats over the past three seasons.

Season	Runs (R)	Home Runs (HR)	Hits (H)	Walks (BB)	Hit by Pitch (HBP)
2015	76	12	163	28	5
2016	59	7	146	24	6
2017	72	16	150	33	6

Season	Sacrifice Flies (SF)	At Bats (AB)	Runners Batted In (RBI)	Strikeouts (SO)	R/TOB	RBI/BIP
2015	5	586	56	85	0.348	0.066
2016	3	548	53	90	0.308	0.087
2017	3	587	42	95	0.324	0.029

Using the data above for 2015 R/TOB = 0.348. For 2015 RBI/BIP = 0.066. This data along with the data for the 2016 and 2017 seasons are tabulated above. The three-year average for R/TOB for Pillar is 0.327 so I will use this three year average of Kevin’s R/TOB for 2018. Pillar, in 2017, had a down year in RBI effecting his RBI/BIP so I will take the average RBI/BIP for the 2015 and 2016 seasons to arrive at a predicted RBI/BIP of 0.076.

Below is the final spreadsheet projecting the offensive production of Kevin Pillar for the 2018 season.

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K
1	Player	League	Team	Pos	AB	PA	HITS	1B	2B	3B	HR
2	Kevin Pillar	AL	TOR	CF	586	630	166	108	45	2	11

	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V
1	R	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SF	SB	CS	AVG	OBP
2	75	56	35	0	117	6	4	17	7	0.283	0.328

	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AG
1	SLG	OPS	ISO	wOBA	BIP	AB/2B	AB/3B	PA/HBP	PA/SF	SBA/TOB	SB%
2	0.425	0.753	0.142	0.327	462	13	283.5	109	177	0.124	70%

	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AM	AN	AO	AP	AQ
1	BB%	IBB%	K%	BABIP	GB%	LD%	FB%	HR/FB	R/TOB	RBI/BIP
2	5.50%	0.05%	18.5%	0.335	43.4%	20.9%	35.7%	6.70%	32.700%	7.6000%

To conclude Kevin Pillar has shown signs of breaking out offensively in the last few seasons only to drop off to his career averages in batting stats. As proven in this article Kevin will break out offensively in 2018 and become a complete player adding above average offensive production to add to his gold glove caliber defense.

References

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pillake01.shtml

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12434&position=OF

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=pillake01&year=2017&t=b