Vegas vs. Steamer

Apparently, there’s a big game in another popular American sport coming up in a couple weeks and many fans of this other sport head to Vegas this time of year to lay down a proposition or two on this big game. Actually, big game doesn’t really do it justice. It’s more like a great game or a fantastic game or maybe even a . . . super game (so as to not be sued for violating any trademarks or licensing agreements, I will leave it at that).

If you’re a baseball fan and you happen to be in Vegas laying down some moolah on this . . . super game . . . you might want to consider throwing a few Benjamins on your favorite baseball team. The most-recent Las Vegas odds to win the World Series are out and there could be some money to be made here. Caveat: I’ve never bet on baseball, nor have I ever been to Vegas, but I would like to go someday because I’m a big fan of The Blue Man Group. I did win $175 on a $5 bet on number 11 the first time I ever played roulette, so I’m not a total novice when it comes to gambling.

Anyway, using the Vegas odds of winning the World Series and the Steamer projected Standings, there are some strong plays on the board. Let’s look at each division, in chart form, starting with the NL West:

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

Odds	Team	W	L	W%	RDif	RS/G	RA/G
13 to 2	Dodgers	91	71	.561	84	4.01	3.50
20 to 1	Giants	83	79	.513	17	3.79	3.69
25 to 1	Padres	79	83	.487	-18	3.76	3.87
120 to 1	Rockies	77	85	.474	-42	4.50	4.76
120 to 1	Diamondbacks	74	88	.454	-66	3.80	4.21

 

It’s interesting that Vegas is really excited about the Padres, at least compared to the Rockies and Diamondbacks, who don’t project to be that much worse but who face significantly longer odds. With the Giants’ recent success, they are probably the best play here. Even if you don’t think they can beat out the Dodgers for the division, they’ve proven that they can make a run if they get into the playoffs as a wild card team. Of course, this is an odd-numbered year, so you might want to save your money and look elsewhere.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

Odds	Team	W	L	W%	RDif	RS/G	RA/G
14 to 1	Cardinals	86	76	.533	46	4.02	3.74
30 to 1	Pirates	85	77	.527	38	4.06	3.82
14 to 1	Cubs	84	78	.517	24	4.10	3.95
60 to 1	Brewers	76	86	.468	-47	3.99	4.28
70 to 1	Reds	76	86	.468	-46	3.76	4.04

 

The play here is the Pittsburgh Pirates. They are projected to be just a game off the division lead, but with odds at 30 to 1. In a world full of parity, every team in baseball would have a .500 record and 30 to 1 odds and there would be no supermodels. That would be a sad, sad, world. In this world, the Pirates are projected to be better than .500 and should have better odds than 30 to 1. Meanwhile, Vegas is excited about the Cubs, giving them 14 to 1 odds (they opened at 45 to 1). Some of you may remember that in Back to the Future, the Cubs won the 2015 World Series (in a 5-game sweep over Miami) after starting the year with 100 to 1 odds. This could be the Cubs’ year, McFly!

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

Odds	Team	W	L	W%	RDif	RS/G	RA/G
5 to 1	Nationals	91	71	.561	86	4.19	3.65
30 to 1	Marlins	81	81	.500	0	3.93	3.93
25 to 1	Mets	78	84	.482	-24	3.77	3.92
60 to 1	Braves	71	91	.439	-85	3.58	4.11
300 to 1	Phillies	68	94	.421	-112	3.53	4.22

 

There aren’t any real good plays here. As good as the Nationals look now, especially after acquiring Max Scherzer, it would be foolish to put any money on a major league team at 5 to 1 odds to win the World Series. There’s just too much unpredictability come playoff time. None of the teams in this division have appealing odds, unless your name is Lloyd Christmas, in which case you have to jump all over the Phillies at 300 to 1 (“So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”).

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

Odds	Team	W	L	W%	RDif	RS/G	RA/G
14 to 1	Red Sox	88	74	.546	70	4.67	4.24
30 to 1	Blue Jays	84	78	.516	24	4.49	4.34
75 to 1	Rays	83	79	.511	16	4.00	3.90
25 to 1	Yankees	82	80	.508	11	4.14	4.07
20 to 1	Orioles	79	83	.485	-23	4.23	4.37

 

There’s no love for the Tampa Bay Rays in Vegas, with odds of 75 to 1 in what still looks like a tight division. The Rays opened at 35 to 1. Apparently, Las Vegas does not like their recent moves. Based on Steamer projections, the Rays look like your best longshot option of any team in baseball.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

Odds	Team	W	L	W%	RDif	RS/G	RA/G
20 to 1	Tigers	85	77	.526	39	4.42	4.17
25 to 1	Indians	84	78	.521	30	4.15	3.97
25 to 1	Royals	81	81	.498	-2	4.06	4.08
20 to 1	White Sox	77	85	.478	-32	4.11	4.31
100 to 1	Twins	76	86	.467	-50	4.13	4.44

 

No team jumps out here, but if I had to pick one, I’d take the Indians at 25 to 1. They look to be right there with the Tigers to win the division, but with slightly worse odds, so you’d get a bigger payout if they went all the way.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

Odds	Team	W	L	W%	RDif	RS/G	RA/G
14 to 1	Mariners	89	73	.547	68	4.20	3.79
60 to 1	Athletics	84	78	.519	28	4.20	4.02
10 to 1	Angels	84	78	.517	25	4.28	4.13
50 to 1	Rangers	78	84	.483	-26	4.29	4.45
60 to 1	Astros	77	85	.477	-34	4.18	4.39

 

I guess when you lose Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Jeff Samardzija, Jon Lester, and Derek Norris, your odds to win the World Series should get worse, but 60 to 1, really? Steamer still has Oakland in the mix for the AL Wild Card and just 5 games back of the Mariners for the division.

Here is a look at the teams in each league who are projected to be in contention, along with their Vegas odds:

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Odds	Team	W	L	W%
5 to 1	Nationals	91	71	.561
13 to 2	Dodgers	91	71	.561
14 to 1	Cardinals	86	76	.533
30 to 1	Pirates	85	77	.527
14 to 1	Cubs	84	78	.517
20 to 1	Giants	83	79	.513
30 to 1	Marlins	81	81	.500

 

The Pirates have worse odds than the Padres and Mets, neither of whom are projected to contend for the Wild Card or even finish .500. Aye, this be the National League team you should wager your doubloons on and win some booty!

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Odds	Team	W	L	W%
14 to 1	Mariners	89	73	.547
14 to 1	Red Sox	88	74	.546
20 to 1	Tigers	85	77	.526
25 to 1	Indians	84	78	.521
60 to 1	Athletics	84	78	.519
10 to 1	Angels	84	78	.517
30 to 1	Blue Jays	84	78	.516
75 to 1	Rays	83	79	.511
25 to 1	Yankees	82	80	.508
25 to 1	Royals	81	81	.498

 

In the American League, your best options are the Athletics and Rays, and possibly the Blue Jays. The A’s are right in the mix for the wild card, yet have the same odds as the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves. The Rays are projected to be nearly as good as the A’s and have even worse odds, better than only four teams in all of baseball—the Phillies, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Twins. The Blue Jays don’t look to be as good a play as the A’s and Rays but, like the Pirates, they have longer odds than other similarly competitive teams.

So, if you’re down in Vegas wagering on that super game coming up on the 1^st of February, think about putting some money down on the A’s and don’t forget to see The Blue Man Group.