Using Gifs to Visualize Curveballs on the Scouting Scale

After reading Kiley McDaniel’s articles on explaining the scouting scale, I thought that I would take a different approach in trying to explain it–namely the approach of gifs.  Although the scale is normally reserved for players who haven’t lost their rookie status in the majors, perhaps a visualization can better illustrate what “major league average,” “plus,” or “below average” looks like.

To show the differences between curveballs in different positions along the scouting scale, major league curveballs must first be graded.  To do this, I pulled up Baseball Prospectus’ pitch f/x leaderboard and set it to filter for pitchers who threw at least 100 curveballs in 2014.  The way in which pitch movement is measured and the fact that lefties’ curveballs’ horizontal movement appeared to be measured lower than righties forced my methodology.

I split up righties and lefties into separate groups for analysis.  Pitch movement was recorded based on the inches a pitch broke more than the the pitch with the least break.  Total movement was recorded as the square root of the combined horizontal and vertical movement squares (C² = A² + B²).  Z Scores were recorded for each curveball’s velocity and movement, and then were added (with movement receiving a 1.5 times greater weight) to form a grade.  The grades were then transferred into Z Scores with a median of 50 and each standard deviation being 10.  Finally, the righties and lefties were combined to make a final scouting scale.

Name / Throws / Total Movement Z Score / Velocity Z Score / Scouting Grade

Garrett Richards	R	2.081	0.289	73.4
Drew Pomeranz	L	0.882	1.398	69.0
Tyler Skaggs	L	1.757	0.047	68.8
Blaine Hardy	L	1.356	0.410	67.1
Gio Gonzalez	L	1.406	0.317	66.9
Alex Cobb	R	0.907	0.948	66.0
Roenis Elias	L	0.949	0.771	65.3
Sonny Gray	R	0.589	1.187	64.4
Jarred Cosart	R	1.125	0.289	63.8
Felix Hernandez	R	0.812	0.712	63.5
Jake Arrieta	R	0.972	0.428	63.2
Charlie Morton	R	1.191	0.066	63.0
Carlos Torres	R	0.973	0.350	62.7
Craig Kimbrel	R	-0.474	2.430	62.1
Sean Marshall	L	1.795	-0.970	62.0
Yoervis Medina	R	-0.471	2.330	61.5
Joe Kelly	R	0.852	0.341	61.4
Mark Melancon	R	0.312	1.116	61.2
Stephen Strasburg	R	0.633	0.612	61.0
Justin Grimm	R	0.404	0.915	60.8
Robbie Erlin	L	1.711	-1.022	60.7
Jamey Wright	R	0.958	0.057	60.6
Adam Wainwright	R	1.731	-1.106	60.6
Wandy Rodriguez	L	1.401	-0.639	60.1
Kevin Jepsen	R	-0.315	1.861	59.9
Jeremy Hellickson	R	1.367	-0.664	59.9
Clay Buchholz	R	1.007	-0.166	59.6
Scott Atchison	R	0.429	0.683	59.5
Will Harris	R	0.538	0.518	59.5
Michael Bolsinger	R	0.524	0.521	59.3
John Axford	R	0.857	0.015	59.3
David Robertson	R	-0.245	1.619	59.0
Jeremy Affeldt	L	1.197	-0.497	59.0
Ian Kennedy	R	0.943	-0.186	58.8
Yu Darvish	R	0.941	-0.182	58.8
Eric Surkamp	L	0.624	0.320	58.7
Nick Masset	R	0.680	0.182	58.6
Tom Koehler	R	0.551	0.360	58.5
Marcus Stroman	R	-0.189	1.455	58.4
Zack Wheeler	R	0.604	0.263	58.4
Jose Fernandez	R	-0.255	1.532	58.3
Scott Downs	L	1.405	-1.064	57.2
Edinson Volquez	R	0.240	0.609	57.1
Felix Doubront	L	1.093	-0.629	56.9
Juan Gutierrez	R	0.110	0.744	56.7
Jesse Chavez	R	1.076	-0.731	56.5
Jeremy Jeffress	R	0.264	0.476	56.4
Danny Duffy	L	0.446	0.272	56.4
Cody Allen	R	-1.180	2.630	56.4
Mike Leake	R	0.210	0.515	56.2
Dellin Betances	R	-0.552	1.635	56.0
Trevor Bauer	R	0.416	0.147	55.8
Jose Veras	R	0.924	-0.638	55.6
Adam Warren	R	-0.220	1.022	55.2
Clayton Kershaw	L	1.119	-0.906	55.2
Chris Tillman	R	0.987	-0.828	55.0
Cole Hamels	L	0.142	0.517	54.9
Miles Mikolas	R	1.158	-1.093	54.9
Jeff Locke	L	0.268	0.317	54.9
Gerrit Cole	R	-0.845	1.884	54.7
Josh Fields	R	0.233	0.257	54.7
Nick Tepesch	R	0.370	0.018	54.4
Brandon Workman	R	0.743	-0.544	54.4
Carlos Carrasco	R	-0.275	0.954	54.2
Cesar Ramos	L	1.941	-2.290	54.2
Tom Wilhelmsen	R	0.309	0.034	53.9
Jenrry Mejia	R	0.117	0.308	53.9
Trevor Cahill	R	0.202	0.153	53.7
Odrisamer Despaigne	R	0.813	-0.770	53.6
Collin McHugh	R	1.350	-1.635	53.2
Jesse Hahn	R	1.150	-1.345	53.2
Phil Hughes	R	0.573	-0.502	53.0
Samuel Deduno	R	-0.389	0.906	52.8
Brett Cecil	L	-1.373	2.483	52.8
Ian Krol	L	-0.094	0.555	52.7
Wade Davis	R	-1.260	2.184	52.6
Jordan Zimmermann	R	-0.034	0.308	52.3
Andre Rienzo	R	0.052	0.170	52.3
Junichi Tazawa	R	0.731	-0.857	52.2
Jason Hammel	R	0.477	-0.512	52.0
Wesley Wright	L	-0.302	0.764	52.0
Mike Fiers	R	1.376	-1.890	51.8
Nathan Eovaldi	R	0.542	-0.644	51.8
Alex Wood	L	-0.385	0.851	51.7
Jake Buchanan	R	0.570	-0.709	51.6
Dillon Gee	R	0.926	-1.261	51.5
Trevor May	R	0.298	-0.328	51.4
David Buchanan	R	0.247	-0.263	51.3
Hyun-jin Ryu	L	1.074	-1.395	51.3
Rick Porcello	R	0.171	-0.189	51.1
Yordano Ventura	R	-1.045	1.603	50.9
Anthony Ranaudo	R	0.136	-0.195	50.7
Aaron Loup	L	-0.110	0.282	50.6
Brad Hand	L	-0.491	0.851	50.6
Brandon McCarthy	R	-0.757	1.116	50.5
Will Smith	L	-0.282	0.526	50.5
Vidal Nuno	L	0.094	-0.043	50.5
Justin Verlander	R	-0.301	0.415	50.4
Tommy Hunter	R	-1.053	1.539	50.4
Santiago Casilla	R	-0.726	1.038	50.3
Brad Peacock	R	0.257	-0.447	50.2
Madison Bumgarner	L	0.013	0.043	50.2
Fernando Abad	L	-0.223	0.397	50.2
C.J. Wilson	L	0.077	-0.066	50.1
Francisco Rodriguez	R	0.334	-0.586	50.1
A.J. Burnett	R	-0.847	1.167	49.9
Erik Bedard	L	0.572	-0.842	49.9
Tanner Roark	R	0.889	-1.455	49.8
Kevin Quackenbush	R	0.264	-0.531	49.7
Casey Janssen	R	0.767	-1.287	49.7
Yovani Gallardo	R	-0.366	0.376	49.5
Matt Cain	R	-0.007	-0.173	49.4
Cory Rasmus	R	0.332	-0.683	49.4
J.P. Howell	L	-0.488	0.652	49.2
Shelby Miller	R	0.046	-0.328	48.9
Joba Chamberlain	R	-0.417	0.331	48.7
Mike Minor	L	-1.028	1.373	48.6
Lance Lynn	R	-0.505	0.441	48.5
Josh Beckett	R	0.835	-1.587	48.4
Daisuke Matsuzaka	R	0.510	-1.109	48.3
Chase Anderson	R	-0.043	-0.318	48.1
Jorge De La Rosa	L	0.397	-0.845	48.0
Danny Farquhar	R	0.214	-0.725	47.9
Nick Martinez	R	0.107	-0.599	47.7
Jerry Blevins	L	0.348	-0.825	47.6
Matt Garza	R	0.444	-1.141	47.5
Franklin Morales	L	0.340	-0.874	47.2
Craig Stammen	R	-0.732	0.563	47.1
Javy Guerra	R	-0.179	-0.266	47.1
Scott Feldman	R	0.326	-1.041	46.9
Anthony Varvaro	R	-0.810	0.638	46.8
Hector Noesi	R	-0.910	0.741	46.5
Miguel Gonzalez	R	-0.144	-0.428	46.3
John Lackey	R	-0.520	0.128	46.3
Kevin Correia	R	-0.427	-0.015	46.3
Kyle Kendrick	R	-0.313	-0.186	46.3
Tyler Thornburg	R	-0.364	-0.118	46.2
Colby Lewis	R	-0.216	-0.344	46.2
Donn Roach	R	0.008	-0.683	46.2
Tim Lincecum	R	0.226	-1.022	46.1
Chris Capuano	L	-0.013	-0.507	46.0
Josh Tomlin	R	-0.062	-0.618	45.9
J.A. Happ	L	-0.568	0.275	45.7
James Paxton	L	-1.519	1.643	45.3
Vance Worley	R	-0.360	-0.289	45.1
J.J. Hoover	R	0.093	-0.973	45.1
Tim Hudson	R	0.007	-0.854	45.0
Wei-Yin Chen	L	0.065	-0.809	44.7
Marco Estrada	R	-0.419	-0.286	44.5
Kyle Lohse	R	0.091	-1.109	44.1
Vic Black	R	-1.482	1.248	44.1
Gavin Floyd	R	-1.285	0.951	44.1
Bruce Chen	L	0.405	-1.421	44.0
Phil Coke	L	-1.232	1.003	43.8
Jon Lester	L	-0.249	-0.478	43.7
Paul Maholm	L	0.340	-1.492	42.8
Jose Quintana	L	-1.420	1.134	42.7
David Phelps	R	-1.211	0.622	42.7
Zach Duke	L	-0.491	-0.288	42.5
Brett Oberholtzer	L	-1.197	0.751	42.4
Homer Bailey	R	-1.197	0.538	42.2
Jon Niese	L	-0.078	-0.954	42.2
Alfredo Simon	R	-0.751	-0.179	41.9
Jim Johnson	R	-1.275	0.605	41.9
Zack Greinke	R	0.308	-1.903	41.0
Scott Carroll	R	-0.685	-0.431	40.9
Jason Vargas	L	-0.469	-0.562	40.8
Travis Wood	L	0.088	-1.443	40.5
Heath Bell	R	-1.696	0.948	40.0
David Price	L	-1.564	0.954	39.9
Doug Fister	R	0.071	-1.726	39.8
Jordan Lyles	R	-1.731	0.961	39.7
Michael Wacha	R	-0.378	-1.112	39.4
Masahiro Tanaka	R	-0.204	-1.413	39.2
Joel Peralta	R	-1.008	-0.208	39.2
James Shields	R	-1.514	0.518	38.9
Jake Odorizzi	R	0.579	-2.759	38.0
Andrew Heaney	L	-1.515	0.568	37.7
Max Scherzer	R	-1.307	-0.163	36.5
Anibal Sanchez	R	-1.676	0.357	36.2
Julio Teheran	R	-0.450	-1.539	35.9
Scott Kazmir	L	-1.244	-0.124	35.7
Yusmeiro Petit	R	-1.253	-0.402	35.4
Mat Latos	R	-1.151	-0.586	35.2
Jacob deGrom	R	-1.879	0.473	35.0
Tommy Milone	L	-0.975	-0.626	35.0
Joe Nathan	R	-2.412	1.271	35.0
Edwin Jackson	R	-1.821	0.370	34.9
Matt Shoemaker	R	-1.126	-0.802	34.0
Drew Smyly	L	-1.762	0.330	33.4
Dan Haren	R	-1.545	-0.292	33.2
Hector Santiago	L	-1.609	0.069	33.2
Grant Balfour	R	-2.631	1.274	32.8
Ryan Vogelsong	R	-1.631	-0.405	31.6
Mark Buehrle	L	-0.593	-1.691	31.5
Erasmo Ramirez	R	-2.280	0.528	31.3
Jeremy Guthrie	R	-1.384	-0.854	31.1
Jacob Turner	R	-2.033	0.102	31.0
Hiroki Kuroda	R	-1.637	-0.528	30.7
Johnny Cueto	R	-2.591	0.880	30.6
Jake Peavy	R	-2.414	0.573	30.3
Josh Collmenter	R	-0.839	-1.884	29.7
Sam LeCure	R	-1.215	-1.461	28.7
Bronson Arroyo	R	-1.320	-1.416	28.0
Aaron Harang	R	-1.461	-1.319	27.2
John Danks	L	-1.548	-1.051	25.9
Eric Stults	L	-0.448	-2.837	24.9
Fernando Salas	R	-3.656	1.613	24.8
Carlos Villanueva	R	-2.102	-0.718	24.8
Jered Weaver	R	-0.725	-2.840	24.4

For our first gifs, we’ll look at two of the top curveballs on the by-the-numbers scouting scale.  At an slightly above average velocity of 79.7 mph with the highest amount of break above than the baseline (sorry, Fernando Salas), Garrett Richards’ curveball is a sight to behold and grades out as a 73:

Next, we’ll look at Tyler Skagg’s curveball, which, features great horizontal and vertical movement while maintaining average velocity.  It grades out as a 69:

With the plus-plus-type (70) curveballs out of the way, we’ll take a look at some plus (60) curveballs.  Wandy Rodriguez fits this category.  His curveball has slightly less, but similar, movement as Skagg’s but it’s lesser velocity makes it a lesser-quality pitch.  Notice how it has defined break, but it appears a bit loopy due to its velocity:

With Kevin Jepsen, we see a curveball that is graded similarly but looks much different than Wandy’s.  Although its break looks sharp because of its velocity, the total movement is slightly below average.  This pitch may actually be a slider, but Jepsen’s breaking pitches tend to run together so consider it a representative picture of his curveball.

Next, we’ll look at an average (50 on the scale) curveball.  Erik Bedard gets slightly above average break, but with below average velocity.  It has solid two-plane break, but it doesn’t look very sharp:

Next, we’ll look at a below average (40 on the scale) curveball.  Jordan Lyles has good velocity on his curveball, averaging 81.75 mph, but he also averages nearly two standard deviations less break than an average curveball in this sample.  The following is a tough angle to see the break, but it lacks the sharp break of a better curveball.

Finally, we’ll look at Jered Weaver’s well below average (24 on the by-the-numbers scale!) curveball.  His curveball was the slowest in the sample and also featured below average break (much of the perceived break is from its low velocity).  It’s still an effective pitch for him, but it’s probably a result of his height and delivery combination than his curveball.  With just about any other pitcher, it would likely be ineffective.