Tyler Naquin’s Blossoming Power

Recently the Cleveland Indians were able to salvage their four-game series against the Seattle Mariners with a 5-3 victory, thanks to Tyler Naquin. In the top of the 8^th inning with teammate Rajai Davis on first base, Naquin again found himself in an 0-2 count. Once again, it seemed that the rookie would strike out…especially because he was facing an excellent reliever in Joaquin Benoit. Going into the game, Benoit found himself with a respectable 3.27 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a BAA of just .154. But when Naquin came to the plate all of that was about to change. On an 0-2 pitch, Benoit threw Naquin a changeup down and in that he promptly golfed into the stands of Safeco Field giving the Tribe a 4-2 lead in the late innings. This advantage would end up sticking for the Tribe as they went on to split the four-game series and remain in first place in the AL Central.

Naquin is no stranger to hitting homers in the big leagues. In fact, at the time that was his fourth homer in his last six games. Before his most recent recall on June 1st, Naquin hadn’t yet hit one out of the park in the bigs. But now it appears that he has found his power stroke, and his team couldn’t be happier. Naquin always had a great swing; even looking back on his days at Texas A&M, that was more than apparent (he won two Big-12 batting titles). It appears now that he’s beginning to develop power. In the minors, Naquin managed just 22 homers in his 1542 plate appearances, a modest 70.1 PA/HR. In his short time in the majors this number has dropped significantly down to 22.3 PA/HR. In other words, around 27 HR in a 600 plate appearances. The power that he’s shown thus far has been quite impressive, and there’s a chance that it’s sustainable.

Naquin has shown the ability, throughout his minor and now major-league career, to possess a great swing with the ability to make good, solid contact which has translated well to this point. Naquin has a 41% hard-hit rate. Qualified players who have a hard-hit rate above 39% this season include the following list:

#	Player	Team	PA	Hard%	HR	OPS	wRC+	wOBA
1	David Ortiz	Red Sox	226	47.2 %	16	1.153	200	.470
2	Joey Votto	Reds	248	43.5 %	11	.793	108	.338
3	Matt Carpenter	Cardinals	255	43.2 %	9	.936	150	.394
4	Chris Carter	Brewers	241	43.0 %	16	.803	105	.334
5	Trevor Story	Rockies	258	43.0 %	16	.866	111	.362
6	Mike Napoli	Indians	232	42.9 %	14	.799	115	.340
7	Chase Utley	Dodgers	222	42.8 %	4	.748	110	.330
8	Michael Conforto	Mets	211	42.8 %	9	.778	111	.330
9	Miguel Sano	Twins	211	42.7 %	11	.799	116	.344
10	Yasmany Tomas	Diamondbacks	208	41.1 %	7	.755	97	.324
11	Josh Donaldson	Blue Jays	265	40.9 %	14	.890	139	.378
12	Victor Martinez	Tigers	224	40.9 %	9	.925	149	.391
13	Khris Davis	Athletics	215	40.8 %	14	.753	100	.316
14	Evan Longoria	Rays	250	40.8 %	14	.865	134	.363
15	Curtis Granderson	Mets	248	40.8 %	11	.742	102	.317
16	Buster Posey	Giants	212	40.5 %	8	.766	108	.323
17	Giancarlo Stanton	Marlins	214	40.4 %	12	.731	95	.315
18	Adam Duvall	Reds	205	40.3 %	17	.902	135	.377
19	Jake Lamb	Diamondbacks	225	40.3 %	11	.867	127	.368
20	Mike Trout	Angels	263	39.8 %	13	.963	164	.405
21	Kris Bryant	Cubs	257	39.8 %	14	.886	139	.380
22	Chris Davis	Orioles	250	39.7 %	13	.795	114	.343
23	Corey Seager	Dodgers	258	39.6 %	14	.869	135	.368
24	Mark Trumbo	Orioles	251	39.0 %	20	.956	155	.403
25	Byung-ho Park	Twins	201	39.0 %	11	.777	109	.334
26	Manny Machado	Orioles	264	39.0 %	15	.968	155	.402

From the chart, 20 of the 26 players listed are in double digits in homers. If you take their ratio of HR/PA and multiply by 600 you find that they range anywhere from 27 HR to 48 HR potential. There’s no guarantee that any of these power hitters will keep their current pace, but one thing’s for sure, players who have a relatively high hard-hit rate are more likely to hit home runs and extra-base hits, and ultimately are more likely be more productive for their team. If we go back even further now, say the last three seasons (2013-2015), we get the following group:

 

#	Name	Team	PA	Hard%	HR	OPS	wRC+	wOBA
1	Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	1848	43.7 %	87	.981	168	.417
2	David Ortiz	Red Sox	1816	43.7 %	102	.915	141	.382
3	Paul Goldschmidt	Diamondbacks	1884	42.2 %	88	.968	159	.408
4	Giancarlo Stanton	Marlins	1460	41.9 %	88	.915	150	.389
5	J.D. Martinez	– – –	1447	40.9 %	68	.840	129	.359
6	Lucas Duda	Mets	1534	40.6 %	72	.817	131	.355
7	Matt Kemp	– – –	1537	40.0 %	54	.786	120	.341
8	Andrew McCutchen	Pirates	2007	39.9 %	69	.917	157	.395
9	Chris Davis	Orioles	1868	39.9 %	126	.891	140	.378
10	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	– – –	1132	39.5 %	34	.746	104	.327
11	Pedro Alvarez	Pirates	1550	39.1 %	81	.760	110	.327
12	Mike Trout	Angels	2103	39.0 %	104	.973	172	.413

The chart says it all: the average HR% (HR/PA) of this group is 4.8%, or in other words about 29 HR per 600 PA. The average OPS of this group is an impressive .876, and even more impressive the average wOBA is .374. If Naquin can continue to make solid contact in his plate appearances, as he has proven throughout his career, he could be a very special player.

In the case of Tyler Naquin, he has: 99 PA, 41 Hard%, 4 HR, .870 OPS, 136 wRC+, and a .371 wOBA. His numbers correlate quite well to the rest of the group; in fact, his OPS, wRC+, and wOBA are all above or around the average in comparison. Obviously this is kind of a small sample size for Naquin. It’s nearly impossible to tell what kind of player Naquin will become with less than 100 major-league plate appearances, but there is definitely hope.