Trades from the Trade Value Lists: Part 2 – 2008-2010

A few days ago, I wrote a piece that evaluated the returns that teams got in trades involving players ranked on FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron’s Top 50 Trade Value lists. I started with his 2007 list, which had five different players get dealt within the following year, including three of the top ten. Now we continue our look at trade value by stepping back into the past once again.

2008 was the first year Dave published his list on FanGraphs, and he must’ve been feeling excited for this change of scenery as he decided to extend his list to the top 50 assets in baseball. Unfortunately, none of the players on this list were traded before the 2009 version of the Trade Value Series was released. But before we move on to the following year, I’d like to point out Dave’s number 14 ranking of Brandon Webb. What a sad, stunningly rapid descent into irrelevance for the former Cy Young winner. Hope he’s doing well wherever he is, and God bless that once magical right arm of his.

On the 2009 list, we have three players dealt, but only two trades to examine. This is the only time ever where a single trade involved multiple players ranked among Dave’s top 50 trade pieces.

All trade information was taken from Baseball-Reference.com. For each player, I’ve included next to his name, their age at the time of trade, along with their final year of team control and the amount due for that player including all team options.

2009

22. Curtis Granderson, 28, controlled through 2013, $36.75 million

• December 8, 2009: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Detroit Tigers to the New York Yankees. The Detroit Tigers sent Edwin Jackson to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The New York Yankees sent Phil Coke and Austin Jackson to the Detroit Tigers. The New York Yankees sent Ian Kennedy to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Arizona Diamondbacks sent Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to the Detroit Tigers.

44. Max Scherzer, 25, controlled through 2014, PreArb – Arb3

• December 8, 2009: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Arizona Diamondbacks with Daniel Schlereth to the Detroit Tigers. The Detroit Tigers sent Curtis Granderson to the New York Yankees. The Detroit Tigers sent Edwin Jackson to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The New York Yankees sent Phil Coke and Austin Jackson to the Detroit Tigers. The New York Yankees sent Ian Kennedy to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

One of the most loaded three-team deals in recent memory, none of the parties involved can say they were too upset about the returns they received. Arizona would probably have the most to complain about, and even they acquired two solid starters, one who would win 21 games in a season while anchoring a division-winning rotation, and one who would throw a no-hitter for them. Let’s start with those Snakes.

For the 44th most valuable trade chip and future 200 million dollar man along with the 3rd ranked prospect in the system following the 2008 season, Josh Byrnes acquired Kennedy, who was the 45th overall prospect (Baseball America) following the 2007 season and Jackson, a former top prospect who climbed to as high as 4th following the 2003 season. At the major league level, Kennedy struggled in his nine starts for the Yankees in 2008 and had a lost 2009 season due to surgery on an aneurysm. Jackson had a career year in 2009 at age 26, throwing 214 innings and making the AL All-Star team for Detroit. So the 44th best trade chip got back an injured former top prospect and an All-Star pitcher with two years of control left.

Detroit had Dave’s 22nd most valuable trade chip and by trading him along with an All-Star pitcher in his prime, acquired the 44th player on the list, the third best prospect in Arizona’s system (Schlereth), Coke, and Jackson. Coke was a former 26th round pick who had risen his stock all the way to the 8th best prospect in the Yankees system after the 2008 season. After an okay 2009 season out of the bullpen where he posted a 4.68 FIP and accumulated 0.2 WAR in 70 innings, Coke was sent packing as a 27-year-old still with five full years of control left. Jackson was ranked the 36th overall prospect by Baseball America after 2008, but had slipped to 76th when the 2009 list was released (after the trade was completed).

We all know how great the Tigers haul ended up being, and even looking at it from the 2009 point of view, it’s still solid. The price was a tad high considering they also traded away an All-Star, but to acquire another player on the Trade Value list, a top 100 prospect, a borderline top 100 prospect, and a decent reliever is not bad. The five years combined they had left with Granderson and Jackson turned into 21 years of control with the four players they got back.

For the Diamondbacks, seeing Scherzer turn into the brilliant pitcher he is today can’t be fun, and even at the time, the return still seems underwhelming. Kennedy was coming off a major surgery less than a year ago, and even though Jackson had just made the AL All-Star team, he only came with two years of team control left. Then consider that Arizona also had to part with their 3rd best prospect for this deal to happen, and you wonder if they could’ve done better. Because Dave created his 2007 list in April, it didn’t really account for Bedard and Haren’s breakout 2007 campaigns, so their rankings are likely lower than they would’ve been had Dave compiled the list midseason. Still, Scherzer, Haren, and Bedard were all similarly ranked, and you can’t help but feel that Arizona’s return was significantly weaker than Baltimore’s or Oakland’s.

37. Roy Halladay, 32, controlled through 2010, $15.75 million (signed 3-year, $60 million extension immediately following trade, with vesting option for 2014)

• December 16, 2009: Traded by the Toronto Blue Jays with cash to the Philadelphia Phillies for Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor.

First of all, we can immediately see how differently Dave ranks players now compared to back in the day. Halladay was ranked 37th despite being 32 and having only one year of team control after 2009, the year he was ranked. Yes, the Blue Jays ace was in the middle of a 7.0 WAR season, but can you imagine Dave ranking that kind of pitcher that generously now?

The package sent north of the border can be summarized pretty quickly. All three were top-tier prospects ranked on Baseball America’s top 100 list after the 2009 season. Respectively, Drabek, d’Arnaud, and Taylor were ranked 25th, 29th, and 81st. That’s quite an impressive haul, one the Phillies probably would not have given up if Halladay did not immediately sign an extension. This package seems much stronger than the one Arizona received for Scherzer, but unfortunately, with hindsight, we can see that the Jays traded away the one piece that became a useful major league player.

Those are the three players (but two trades) that took place with the 2009 list. Let’s go one more and examine the one player from the 2010 trade that was traded, whose deal to Milwaukee is still causing ripple effects in baseball today.

2010

20. Zack Greinke, 27, controlled through 2012, $27 million

• December 19, 2010: Traded by the Kansas City Royals with Yuniesky Betancourt and cash to the Milwaukee Brewers for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi.

Coming off a solid, but unspectacular year compared to his brilliant 2009 Cy Young campaign, Greinke was promptly dealt to the Brewers for a package that looks absolutely astounding today. Cain and Escobar are anchoring the 2015 AL-best Royals team at up-the-middle positions, and Odorizzi was used to bring James Shields and Wade Davis to Missouri. Plus, Dayton Moore got to dump Betancourt on the Brewers so that’s bonus points in itself.

Cain’s unusual baseball path is well-documented, as most of us have heard how the All-Star center fielder didn’t play baseball until late in high school. However, despite being drafted 496th overall in 2004, he (24 at the time) climbed as high as 6th in the Milwaukee system and was coming off a solid 2010 rookie season with 1.2 WAR in only 153 plate appearances.

On the other hand, Escobar, also 24 when the trade was made, was the blue-chip prospect, ranked in the top 20 by Baseball America after 2008 and 2009. He struggled with the bat in his first full season in 2010, running a 62 wRC+, but displayed solid defense at shortstop en route to 0.5 WAR in 552 PA.

Jeffress was a 23-year-old right-handed pitcher who peaked as the 100th prospect after 2008, but had become solely a relief pitcher after a catastrophic 2009 season as a starter when he walked 33 hitters in 27.1 innings in Double-AA. However, he was still the 3rd ranked prospect in the Brewers system when the trade was made.

The top gem in the Milwaukee farm at the time the trade was made and the 69th overall prospect, Odorizzi had a strong showing in 2010 in A-ball at the ripe age of 20, running a 18.8 K-BB% in 120.2 innings. Of course, his stay in Kansas City would not last, as he was shipped off to Tampa two years later in a trade that we will see down the line in this exercise.

Two years of Greinke (and Betancourt) landed a package that is at least comparable to the deal that Detroit got for the similarly ranked Granderson. Although Detroit did acquire another player on the Trade Value list, it required that they trade away an All-Star, while Kansas City got a boatload of highly touted cost-controlled talent. Again, we can see how Dave’s methodology has changed. In his 2015 list, there were only two players that had only two years of control left ranked, and none higher than Todd Frazier at 46th. Dave would probably have Greinke unranked had he redone the list with his current attitude towards years of control.

Next time, we have the 2011 list, and lots of trade fun there with four deals to analyze, including two that were consummated just a couple weeks after that year’s list was released.