The Cubs Should Be Buyers — Long-Term
The Cubs have struggled this year. They are two under .500 and 5.5 games back in almost mid-July.
There was a lot of talk about the Cubs’ defensive regression and worse pitching, but one of the biggest problems has been the hitting. Last year they had a 106 team wRC+ which has regressed to a below-average 94 wRC+ this year.
That is not good, but it also means there’s a lot of room for improvement. The Cubs’ struggles are mostly based on their .279 BABIP, as their .180 ISO and 10% BB rate are above league average and their K% is about average. According to those stats, they should be at least above average.
The Cubs should hit better than that, and they have, outside an abysmal May and early June.
Here is the monthly breakdown (month: wRC+, BB, K, ISO, BABIP):
April: 98 wRC+, 10,22.9,.162, .313
May: 83 wRC+, 10.1, 21.1, .177, .242
June: 96 wRC+, 9.7, 22.7, .194, .282
July: 112 wRC+,9.2, 21, .212, .293
As you can see, the peripherals are not that different; if anything the ISO was trending upwards during the season. What was different was the BABIP, and that especially in like six weeks in May and early June.
Now there is no reason to believe the Cubs’ low BABIP would be for real, and the Cubs’ season ISO if anything might be a little low. They won’t be ISOing over .200 like in July so far, but high .180s seem to be a realistic goal. But even if they stay at their current peripherals of 10, 22, .180 and their BABIP improves to around .300 in the second half they should be a good hitting team.
The Cubs’ young core can hit, and they will never be much better than they are now. They have Rizzo and Bryant at their peak, and Contreras, Happ, Baez and Russell aren’t bad hitters either. And even the struggling Schwarber should bounce back. He probably was overrated by Cubs fans as his contact and defensive issues are for real, but his 14% BB rate and .212 ISO are solid and he was a big time victim of BABIP, at .199. Now his BABIP was partly due to his 14% IF fly rate and his predictable pull tendency (shift), but .199 still is way too low. Schwarber might just end up being a poor man’s Adam Dunn, but while hardcore Cubs fans see that as an insult, peak Adam Dunn was a pretty good hitter and even if he is not the second coming of Babe Ruth, Schwarber should be decent at least offensively.
So from a hitting perspective, there is no reason to wait. The Cubs can hit now and the service time clock for the core is ticking, although there are still quite a few years left and this certainly is no now-or-never situation. Also, except for Eloy Jimenez, all major prospects have been called up so there is also no reason to wait for guys in the minors. This is the Cubs’ core and it is one that gave them two big years.
So why potentially risk wasting one of the control years of the core? The Cubs are a few games back, but realistically, it is a weak division, and they still have clearly the best postseason odds in their division. And once you make the PS any team can win anyway, so grab that playoff run if you can; the chances are not going to get better.
Now the Cubs probably win the division without a move, but there is a risk the Brewers pull through. Also the Cubs do have future issues. Arrieta is going to be a free agent and might be declining a little anyway, so it will be tough decision on whether to re-sign him as he still won’t be cheap. Lackey is getting old too, and Hendricks, while not bad, clearly had a fluke-ish season last year. Lester is still good, but how much longer will he stay an ace at age 33? And all the typical buy-low Theo signings for the fifth spot so far did not work this year.
The Cubs have some interesting pitching prospects but nobody of note is remotely big-league ready.
So if you can add a cost-controlled young ace, now is a good time. Next year, arbitration will start to kick in, and the core won’t stay that cheap forever. That means a cost-controlled ace would ease the salary situation. The Cubs at some point need to make a move for pitching anyway, and why not do it now, when you are a couple games back and a hot-at-the-wrong-time Brewers club could cost you a very valuable playoff run that you counted on before the season started?
The Cubs still are in a good position, but there has been a negative swing in playoff odds that the Cubs could counter with a big move. Of course, that big move will hurt the Cubs a lot in what it will cost, but if there is a chance to get a deal done, now might be a very good time, and since the Cubs’ window, while not eternal, is not closing anytime soon in the next years, it probably makes sense to go for a long-term solution rather then a rental.
The Cubs have a chance to do two things at once: get back some of the playoff odds they lost due to their mediocre two and a half months of baseball in a season that was seen as a lock to make the PS, and fix a future need in the rotation, and IMO Theo should use that situation to make the move this deadline. There really is nothing to wait for — the future is now for the Cubs.
Of course it depends on the price tag but I can’t see pitching getting cheaper anytime soon and the cubs pitching isn’t getting younger.
So why not doing it now when you have to close a 5.5 game deficit to a probably inferior team? I don’t think the cubs necessarily need to do something but with a bit of Pythagorean record luck it could get dicey down the road, no need to take that risk.
It’s a good idea, but how do they get one? A young ace with multiple years of remaining control would cost practically a king’s ransom. They have money, but that’s the wrong kind of currency that’s needed at the trade market. As you said, they don’t have much impact talent left in the high minors, and trading away young pieces from the Major League roster would be at least somewhat counter productive to the stated goal.
Well they have eloy jiminez and a couple solid pitching prospects. They also have some OK but not great mlb ready prospects (Candelario, zagunis).
If you don’t want to give up eloy you can also give up one on the young hitters. One of happ, schwarber, almora or baez could go. That would hurt but the cubs could survive it.
A package headlined by eloy or one of schwarber/baez/happ and say candelario/zagunis and Dylan cease should definitely get them a young TOR starter.
Of course that is a big price to pay but what else should the cubs do? They can sign one free agent to a 200m contract but if arrieta walks they need two guys for next season.
More than that actually, as Lackey will also be a free agent, and his age has finally caught up to him this year, anyway. They’ll have Lester and Hendricks and very little else. Their decision to stockpile young position player talent without doing the same for pitching has really come back to bite them hard.
Just for fun, imagine what kind of monster a team would be if they had both the Cubs’ stockpile of young position player talent and the Cardinals’ stockpile of young starting pitching talent.
Wow cubs just traded eloy and cease for quintana