The Basic Fortune Index (Or bFI, If You Are So Inclined)¹

Note: I have no idea if I’m the first to do this, but quite frankly I don’t care.

Last Friday against the Rockies, Matt Wieters had a plate appearance that perfectly epitomized his 2013 season. Coming to the plate in the bottom of the 3rd, with the Orioles up 2-0, two outs in the inning, and the bases loaded, Wieters worked Juan Nicasio for an eight-pitch full count; on the ninth pitch of the at-bat, Wieters hit a perfect, textbook line drive…right to DJ LeMahieu at second, for the third out of the inning.

While watching this game with my father, I was forced to restrain him from destroying the flatscreen upon which this atrocity had been viewed. My level of outrage was not nearly at that of my progenitor’s, however, for I–being more statistically inclined than him–knew that Wieters had been rather unlucky on batted balls this season; after another lineout in Saturday’s game, and two more on Tuesday against the Diamondbacks², Wieters now has a .596 BABIP on line drives, “good” for 170th out of 183 qualified players. At this late in the season, a player’s numbers start to level off to what they’ll be at season’s end, and despite the reassurances of experts, Wieters has not ceased to be unlucky.

Which got me thinking…

Would there be a way to measure how lucky or unlucky a player has been as a whole? Not just for one individual stat, but for an entire stat line, over the course of a whole season? After exhaustive Google searches returned nothing, I decided to take matters into my own hands. Using my rudimentary statistical knowledge, and the findings of Mike Podhorzer–who created equations for xK% and xBB%–and Jeff Zimmerman–who devised an xBABIP equation–I created a basic equation to determine how lucky a player has been 0verall³. Because I have absolutely no idea how linear weights and all that shit works, I kept it simple:

bFI = 100*((xK%–K%) + (BB%–xBB%) + (BABIP–xBABIP))

I call it the Basic Fortune Index; I would’ve called it the Luck Index, but I didn’t want to confuse it with Leverage Index. Basically, I took the difference between each player’s xK% and K%, BB% and xBB%, and BABIP and xBABIP, added them together, and then multiplied it by 100 for shits and giggles. Since a lucky hitter would have a lower K% than expected (as opposed to a higher BB% and BABIP than expected), I took the difference from xK% to K%, instead of the other way around. A positive bFI would indicate a lucky player, and a  negative value would indicate an unlucky player. Also, due to time constraints, I was only able to compile stats for the AL.

On to the leaderboards⁴!

Player	K%	xK%	kdiff	BB%	xBB%	bbdiff	BABIP	xBABIP	bdiff	bFI
Joe Mauer	0.175	0.218	0.043	0.12	0.119	0.001	0.383	0.343	0.04	8.4
Miguel Cabrera	0.144	0.147	0.003	0.138	0.097	0.041	0.363	0.335	0.027	7.1
Billy Butler	0.145	0.18	0.035	0.129	0.116	0.013	0.323	0.304	0.019	6.7
David Ortiz	0.138	0.156	0.018	0.123	0.109	0.014	0.333	0.301	0.032	6.4
Josh Donaldson	0.168	0.2	0.032	0.109	0.109	0	0.33	0.319	0.012	4.4
Mike Trout	0.17	0.194	0.024	0.138	0.13	0.008	0.376	0.366	0.01	4.2
Jhonny Peralta	0.225	0.221	0.004	0.08	0.087	-0.007	0.379	0.339	0.04	3.7
Mike Napoli	0.337	0.336	0.001	0.109	0.119	-0.01	0.36	0.314	0.046	3.7
Evan Longoria	0.238	0.235	-0.003	0.108	0.111	-0.003	0.318	0.279	0.04	3.4
Torii Hunter	0.164	0.166	0.002	0.042	0.042	0	0.343	0.316	0.027	2.9
Dustin Pedroia	0.113	0.165	0.052	0.108	0.102	0.006	0.317	0.347	-0.03	2.8
Adrian Beltre	0.097	0.113	0.016	0.07	0.069	0.001	0.324	0.317	0.007	2.4
Carlos Santana	0.178	0.218	0.04	0.135	0.133	0.002	0.299	0.317	-0.018	2.4
Jose Bautista	0.16	0.2	0.04	0.129	0.131	-0.002	0.259	0.274	-0.015	2.3
Jacoby Ellsbury	0.145	0.149	0.004	0.077	0.088	-0.011	0.34	0.311	0.029	2.2
Jason Kipnis	0.215	0.23	0.015	0.115	0.13	-0.015	0.35	0.329	0.021	2.1
Victor Martinez	0.107	0.148	0.041	0.08	0.092	-0.012	0.298	0.306	-0.008	2.1
Daniel Nava	0.178	0.195	0.017	0.1	0.111	-0.011	0.342	0.327	0.015	2.1
Kendrys Morales	0.17	0.176	0.006	0.067	0.077	-0.01	0.325	0.3	0.025	2.1
Adam Lind	0.202	0.216	0.014	0.1	0.099	0.001	0.319	0.314	0.004	1.9
Desmond Jennings	0.202	0.218	0.016	0.091	0.099	-0.008	0.306	0.299	0.007	1.5
Chris Davis	0.292	0.277	-0.015	0.103	0.103	0	0.354	0.327	0.027	1.2
Lorenzo Cain	0.197	0.216	0.019	0.08	0.079	0.001	0.317	0.326	-0.008	1.2
Colby Rasmus	0.301	0.271	-0.03	0.08	0.099	-0.019	0.363	0.306	0.057	0.8
Prince Fielder	0.175	0.19	0.015	0.11	0.103	0.007	0.288	0.303	-0.015	0.7
Ben Zobrist	0.143	0.136	-0.007	0.103	0.094	0.009	0.302	0.298	0.003	0.5
Kyle Seager	0.165	0.19	0.025	0.088	0.104	-0.016	0.309	0.313	-0.004	0.5
Mitch Moreland	0.206	0.234	0.028	0.08	0.091	-0.011	0.265	0.279	-0.014	0.3
Robinson Cano	0.13	0.133	0.003	0.115	0.095	0.02	0.311	0.333	-0.022	0.1
Nick Markakis	0.099	0.124	0.025	0.079	0.075	-0.004	0.295	0.318	-0.022	-0.1
Alejandro De Aza	0.217	0.224	0.007	0.073	0.094	-0.021	0.33	0.317	0.013	-0.1
Jason Castro	0.261	0.258	0.003	0.098	0.103	-0.005	0.345	0.343	0.001	-0.1
Eric Hosmer	0.138	0.153	0.015	0.068	0.071	-0.003	0.32	0.333	-0.013	-0.1
Nelson Cruz	0.239	0.234	-0.005	0.077	0.089	-0.012	0.299	0.284	0.014	-0.3
Alex Gordon	0.207	0.217	0.01	0.08	0.098	-0.018	0.311	0.306	0.005	-0.3
Justin Morneau	0.179	0.193	0.014	0.066	0.07	-0.004	0.294	0.308	-0.013	-0.3
Brandon Moss	0.275	0.267	-0.008	0.09	0.087	0.003	0.29	0.289	0.001	-0.4
Adam Jones	0.185	0.177	-0.008	0.03	0.029	0.001	0.33	0.328	0.002	-0.5
Albert Pujols	0.124	0.159	0.035	0.09	0.089	0.001	0.258	0.288	-0.031	-0.5
Shane Victorino	0.114	0.141	0.027	0.052	0.068	-0.016	0.309	0.327	-0.018	-0.7
Chris Carter	0.368	0.355	-0.013	0.118	0.112	0.006	0.296	0.296	0	-0.7
Manny Machado	0.156	0.136	-0.02	0.039	0.056	-0.017	0.338	0.31	0.028	-0.9
James Loney	0.128	0.13	0.002	0.074	0.066	0.008	0.337	0.357	-0.019	-0.9
Ian Kinsler	0.093	0.132	0.039	0.088	0.109	-0.021	0.271	0.301	-0.03	-1.2
Mark Reynolds	0.317	0.32	0.003	0.11	0.107	0.003	0.288	0.306	-0.018	-1.2
Vernon Wells	0.163	0.148	-0.015	0.062	0.047	0.015	0.266	0.28	-0.013	-1.3
Howie Kendrick	0.171	0.171	0	0.051	0.051	0	0.344	0.357	-0.013	-1.3
Edwin Encarnacion	0.098	0.142	0.044	0.122	0.117	0.005	0.255	0.317	-0.063	-1.4
Erick Aybar	0.088	0.103	0.015	0.043	0.44	-0.001	0.299	0.328	-0.029	-1.5
Brett Gardner	0.201	0.202	0.001	0.083	0.097	-0.014	0.333	0.336	-0.002	-1.5
Nick Swisher	0.218	0.23	0.012	0.121	0.118	0.003	0.292	0.322	-0.03	-1.5
Michael Bourn	0.228	0.216	-0.012	0.063	0.073	-0.01	0.344	0.338	0.006	-1.6
Mark Trumbo	0.26	0.254	-0.006	0.083	0.07	0.013	0.274	0.298	-0.024	-1.7
Austin Jackson	0.21	0.208	-0.002	0.095	0.083	0.012	0.32	0.35	-0.03	-2
Salvador Perez	0.12	0.093	-0.027	0.042	0.038	-0.004	0.299	0.29	0.01	-2.1
Alexei Ramirez	0.1	0.071	-0.029	0.03	0.008	0.022	0.314	0.328	-0.014	-2.1
Jed Lowrie	0.136	0.106	-0.03	0.083	0.081	0.002	0.315	0.308	0.007	-2.1
Nate McLouth	0.14	0.147	0.007	0.088	0.084	0.004	0.305	0.338	-0.033	-2.2
Coco Crisp	0.114	0.148	0.034	0.109	0.11	-0.001	0.256	0.312	-0.056	-2.3
Alex Rios	0.167	0.151	-0.016	0.066	0.07	-0.004	0.315	0.318	-0.003	-2.3
Ryan Doumit	0.168	0.19	0.022	0.084	0.094	-0.01	0.272	0.308	-0.036	-2.4
Yunel Escobar	0.124	0.125	0.001	0.086	0.092	-0.006	0.286	0.308	-0.022	-2.7
Drew Stubbs	0.29	0.257	-0.033	0.072	0.068	0.004	0.333	0.333	0	-2.9
Yoenis Cespedes	0.233	0.23	-0.003	0.076	0.079	-0.003	0.256	0.283	-0.027	-3.3
Mike Moustakas	0.137	0.14	0.003	0.066	0.086	-0.02	0.251	0.268	-0.018	-3.5
Jose Altuve	0.133	0.107	-0.026	0.055	0.041	0.014	0.311	0.335	-0.024	-3.6
Brian Dozier	0.188	0.212	0.024	0.081	0.094	-0.013	0.278	0.327	-0.049	-3.8
Lyle Overbay	0.222	0.207	-0.015	0.068	0.076	-0.008	0.303	0.318	-0.015	-3.8
Adam Dunn	0.285	0.286	0.001	0.132	0.145	-0.013	0.283	0.31	-0.027	-3.9
Matt Wieters	0.172	0.175	0.003	0.081	0.088	-0.007	0.244	0.28	-0.036	-4
Michael Brantley	0.108	0.094	-0.014	0.073	0.076	-0.003	0.3	0.323	-0.023	-4
Elvis Andrus	0.143	0.155	0.012	0.081	0.098	-0.017	0.301	0.343	-0.041	-4.6
Paul Konerko	0.146	0.158	0.012	0.078	0.071	0.007	0.26	0.326	-0.066	-4.7
J.J. Hardy	0.118	0.124	0.006	0.057	0.07	-0.013	0.253	0.296	-0.043	-5
Matt Dominguez	0.164	0.162	-0.002	0.038	0.056	-0.018	0.248	0.283	-0.035	-5.5
Josh Hamilton	0.246	0.24	-0.004	0.067	0.067	0	0.264	0.317	-0.052	-5.6
Alcides Escobar	0.126	0.118	-0.008	0.032	0.025	0.007	0.271	0.325	-0.055	-5.6
Alberto Callaspo	0.106	0.159	0.053	0.072	0.119	-0.047	0.256	0.319	-0.064	-5.8
Asdrubal Cabrera	0.22	0.211	-0.009	0.06	0.075	-0.015	0.288	0.323	-0.035	-5.9
Ichiro Suzuki	0.097	0.108	0.011	0.045	0.047	-0.002	0.292	0.364	-0.072	-6.3
Maicer Izturis	0.094	0.097	0.003	0.069	0.066	0.003	0.248	0.326	-0.078	-7.2
Raul Ibanez	0.256	0.249	-0.007	0.069	0.084	-0.015	0.278	0.33	-0.052	-7.4
David Murphy	0.117	0.128	-0.011	0.076	0.083	-0.007	0.228	0.288	-0.061	-7.9
Jeff Keppinger	0.088	0.07	-0.018	0.039	0.049	-0.01	0.263	0.33	-0.067	-9.5
J.P. Arencibia	0.295	0.255	-0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.253	0.324	-0.071	-13.1

Wieters ended up 70th out of the 85 players, as his xBABIP wasn’t as high as I thought it would’ve been.

After compiling this table, I noticed a trend (one that has been noticed by others before me): the “lucky” players were mainly good players, whereas the “unlucky” players were mainly bad offensive players. I then matched each player’s wRC+ up with their bFI, and made a table of the result⁵:

Player	bFI	wRC+	Player	bFI	wRC+	Player	bFI	wRC+
Joe Mauer	8.4	143	Nick Markakis	-0.1	91	Coco Crisp	-2.3	96
Miguel Cabrera	7.1	207	Alejandro De Aza	-0.1	104	Alex Rios	-2.3	99
Billy Butler	6.7	124	Jason Castro	-0.1	120	Ryan Doumit	-2.4	91
David Ortiz	6.4	160	Eric Hosmer	-0.1	114	Yunel Escobar	-2.7	101
Josh Donaldson	4.4	139	Nelson Cruz	-0.3	123	Drew Stubbs	-2.9	87
Mike Trout	4.2	179	Alex Gordon	-0.3	99	Yoenis Cespedes	-3.3	98
Jhonny Peralta	3.7	125	Justin Morneau	-0.3	101	Mike Moustakas	-3.5	80
Mike Napoli	3.7	109	Brandon Moss	-0.4	115	Jose Altuve	-3.6	83
Evan Longoria	3.4	138	Adam Jones	-0.5	125	Brian Dozier	-3.8	100
Torii Hunter	2.9	118	Albert Pujols	-0.5	111	Lyle Overbay	-3.8	98
Dustin Pedroia	2.8	110	Shane Victorino	-0.7	102	Adam Dunn	-3.9	121
Adrian Beltre	2.4	142	Chris Carter	-0.7	108	Matt Wieters	-4	91
Carlos Santana	2.4	127	Manny Machado	-0.9	110	Michael Brantley	-4	106
Jose Bautista	2.3	133	James Loney	-0.9	124	Elvis Andrus	-4.6	69
Jacoby Ellsbury	2.2	110	Ian Kinsler	-1.2	101	Paul Konerko	-4.7	77
Jason Kipnis	2.1	137	Mark Reynolds	-1.2	96	J.J. Hardy	-5	99
Victor Martinez	2.1	101	Vernon Wells	-1.3	79	Matt Dominguez	-5.5	80
Daniel Nava	2.1	123	Howie Kendrick	-1.3	116	Josh Hamilton	-5.6	93
Kendrys Morales	2.1	124	Edwin Encarnacion	-1.4	145	Alcides Escobar	-5.6	54
Adam Lind	1.9	124	Erick Aybar	-1.5	94	Alberto Callaspo	-5.8	94
Desmond Jennings	1.5	110	Brett Gardner	-1.5	104	Asdrubal Cabrera	-5.9	91
Chris Davis	1.2	183	Nick Swisher	-1.5	111	Ichiro Suzuki	-6.3	78
Lorenzo Cain	1.2	88	Michael Bourn	-1.6	90	Maicer Izturis	-7.2	63
Colby Rasmus	0.8	122	Mark Trumbo	-1.7	114	Raul Ibanez	-7.4	122
Prince Fielder	0.7	115	Austin Jackson	-2	103	David Murphy	-7.9	75
Ben Zobrist	0.5	113	Salvador Perez	-2.1	85	Jeff Keppinger	-9.5	51
Kyle Seager	0.5	128	Alexei Ramirez	-2.1	84	J.P. Arencibia	-13.1	70
Mitch Moreland	0.3	99	Jed Lowrie	-2.1	112
Robinson Cano	0.1	136	Nate McLouth	-2.2	105

Apparently, the correlation was not as strong as  I had initially hoped (thanks, Dunn and Ibanez!), as the .53746 R Squared implies.

In the end, it’s probably not a very good statistic–more of a Pseudometric–which, to be fair, is why I named it the Basic Fortune Index. Like most everything I post here, there really wasn’t a point to this whole thing. In addition, it’s fairly likely that, if this is actually published, someone will be so kind as to inform me that there is already a better stat out there for determining the luck of a hitter, and that–despite the disclaimer–I should care about this. If, however, this is an original idea, I invite those more statistically knowledgeable than myself to expound upon it (assuming, of course, I receive all the credit).

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¹How should that be capitalized?

²I refuse to use their nickname, and usage of it by anyone else should be considered cause for legal euthanasia.

³I wanted to use HR/FB%, but since Parts 6 and 7 of this series were never released, I was forced to go without.

⁴All stats are as of Tuesday, August 20th.

⁵I tried to put in the graph, but couldn’t figure out how.