Archive for World Baseball Classic

The Seattle Mariners went into the offseason with a solid lineup and a questionable at best starting rotation, which was made even more so with the trade of Taijuan Walker for Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger on November 23^rd, 2016. On January 11^th, 2017 GM Jerry Dipoto made his eleventh trade of the offseason when he shipped off the recently-acquired Mallex Smith along with minor leaguers Carlos Vargas and Ryan Yarbrough to the Rays for lefty Drew Smyly.

In 2016, Smyly put up a rather uninspiring 4.49 FIP, but he did take the mound 30 times and throw a career-high 175.1 innings. He wasn’t supposed to be anything special for the M’s; he was just supposed to slot into the middle of their rotation behind James Paxton and Felix Hernandez.

That is, until March 15^th, when he started for the US in their World Baseball Classic game against Venezuela and Seattle teammate Felix Hernandez. If you don’t remember what happened that night, go read this article by Jeff Sullivan. Smyly was brilliant, allowing 0 earned runs on only 3 hits. He did not issue a walk, and had 8 strikeouts in 4.2 innings. Felix was just as good that night, going 5 shutout innings with no walks and only 3 hits allowed. But what caught everyone’s eye was the uptick in Smyly’s fastball velocity. As Jeff detailed, his fastball was more than two ticks above his career average, and this was coming in a mid-March start. Mariners fans had to be thrilled after watching that game. Was the King back? Had Dipoto traded for another power lefty starter to pair with Paxton? Smyly was also elated, saying a couple days after that start, “hopefully, I can carry that with me for the rest of the season, but it’s a long season. … It’s hard to maintain that for 30 starts, but if I can, that’ll be great.”

Well, in late March, the Mariners put Smyly on the DL with elbow discomfort, and then on Wednesday, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times broke this news:

Drew Smyly has a torn UCL and will undergo Tommy John surgery

— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) June 28, 2017

As an M’s fan, it was a big blow to go from hoping for 30 starts of this new harder-throwing Smyly to knowing that he won’t even throw a pitch for the M’s this year (if ever). Smyly wasn’t the only Mariners pitcher to participate in the WBC and then have issues this season. I already mentioned that Felix started that same WBC game for Venezuela, and he spent two months on the DL with shoulder bursitis before returning on June 18^th. Yovanni Gallardo threw 4 innings for Mexico, and he was terrible this year before recently being replaced in the rotation. Also, last year’s rookie closer phenom Edwin Diaz has very ineffective this year after being almost unhittable as a rookie in 2016.

This had me thinking, it couldn’t just be bad Mariners luck, could it? Have the other pitchers that participated in the World Baseball Classic gotten hurt and/or been less effective this season? Could all those complaints and worries about the WBC messing with throwing schedules and programs be justified?

So, I gathered the data to look at how MLB pitchers who participated in the WBC have performed this year. I am comparing their 2017 season results to how they performed from 2014 – 2016. This is a very simple comparison, and there some caveats that you should know about the data I am using: I am only including pitchers who threw at least 3 innings in the WBC, I removed 4 pitchers who made their debut in 2017, and I also removed Drew Smyly since he hasn’t pitched in 2017. I do, however, leave in everyone who made their debut prior to 2017. For example, Jose Berrios is included in the sample although only he only had 58.1 career innings before 2017, all of which came in 2016. This leaves me with a sample of 36 pitchers who have pitched before and after participating in the year’s WBC. Now let’s get to the results!

First, here is the comparison of 2017 vs 2014 – 2016 for the sample as a whole using a weighted-average approach:

	ERA	FIP	xFIP	ERA-	FIP-	xFIP-
2014 – 2016	3.49	3.73	3.84	88	93	96
2017	4.30	4.30	4.43	99	99	102

As you can see, quite a decrease in performance by our group in 2017. In fact, the sample group has been almost exactly league average in 2017. While the WBC rosters are not entirely comprised of All-Stars, I think we would assume that the players competing for their countries in the biggest international baseball tournament are better than league average, and the data from 2014 – 2016 suggests that they were.

Now, to look at this individually, here is a scatter plot comparing the FIP- from 2017 vs 2014 – 2016 for the 36 individual pitchers:

Clearly, we can see that there are some outliers that have performed much worse in 2017 than they did in the previous years. On the very right we have Sam Dyson (2017: 156, 2014 – 2016: 82), who was designated for assignment by Texas after his historically bad start to the season as their closer, and moving down from him to the left is Edwin Diaz (126, 48). But these outliers are made up for by Jose Berrios, who we see at the very top has been significantly better this year than in his first taste of the show last year (77, 145). So, we cannot attribute this decrease in performance to the outliers, but rather by the group performing worse, which we can see by how close most of the group is to the trendline, in addition to the Average point being located to the left of the trendline.

Here are also the biggest increases and decreases in 2017 performance compared to 2014 – 2016:

Name	2017 FIP-	2014 – 2016 FIP-	Change
Jose Berrios	77	145	68
Pat Neshek	47	82	35
Fernando Rodney	76	98	22
Danny Duffy	82	100	18
Chris Archer	68	85	17
Carlos Martinez	76	86	10
Name	2017 FIP-	2014 – 2016 FIP-	Change
Edwin Diaz	126	48	-78
Sam Dyson	156	82	-74
Seung Hwan Oh	105	52	-53
Hansel Robles	143	92	-51
Warwick Saupold	101	54	-47
Julio Teheran	137	102	-35
Felix Hernandez	120	88	-32

The point of this article is not to say definitively that the World Baseball Classic has caused this group of pitchers to suffer a decrease in performance and/or injuries. I realize that this decrease in performance could be completely random, and we only have a half season of data after the 2017 WBC, but I do think it is interesting that the group has performed worse in 2017 than they did in the previous years. There has been lots of discussions about when the best time to hold this tournament would be, or if it is even worth having at all. Maybe it is a bad idea to have this tournament before the season starts when the arms aren’t fully stretched out. Maybe teams won’t allow their top pitchers to participate in future tournaments. Or, maybe it is just a bad idea to pitch in the WBC.

In baseball analysis, we often use comparable players or “comps” to discuss what we think the player is likely to do in the future. Prospects are the most comped players because the general baseball public does not know much about minor leaguers. Comparing these young players to major leaguers allows fans to imagine what these prospects could someday become. Comps are also often used in projection systems. Data analysis has found that similar players often perform similarly throughout their careers. Thus, using former players who compare well with current players aids projection systems in forecasting what a particular player is likely to do in the coming years. Comparable players are also used in contract negotiations and arbitration battles. Players at similar ages with similar careers can expect to get roughly the same contract. In fact, the arbitration process is almost solely interested in comparing similar players and their wages.

Sometimes, players aren’t viewed as being similar when in reality they are actually quite alike. Recently, I found that Julio Teheran and Jose Quintana top each other’s similarity score lists on Baseball Reference. I had usually thought of Quintana as one of the game’s best pitchers and a true ace, while Teheran was at least a rung below that and probably more of a number 2 or 3 starter, so I did some research and found that these two pitchers are more alike than many probably realize.

Both pitchers are from Colombia and they were actually born only miles apart. Colombian-born baseball players are actually quite rare as there have only been 19 such players in MLB history, and this includes at least one set of brothers and a set of cousins. In fact, just this past season Teheran and Quintana became the first Colombian-born pitchers to ever start against each other in the same game. The two are apparently also quite good friends off the field and even work out together in the offseason. They each have also decided that they will pitch for Colombia in the upcoming World Baseball Classic. That will make for a formidable 1-2 punch for the Colombian pitching staff and will be hard for any other team in the tournament to match up against.

These two pitchers also match up quite well statistically, as their numbers look quite similar in a multitude of categories.

Player	bWAR	ERA+	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB	GB%	HR/FB%
Julio Teheran	4.8	129	3.21	3.69	4.13	1.05	7.5	1.1	2.0	8.0	4.07	39.1%	10%
Jose Quintana	5.2	125	3.20	3.56	4.03	1.16	8.3	1.0	2.2	7.8	3.62	40.4%	9.5%

 

You might be able to find two pitchers with more similar numbers, but it wouldn’t be easy. They were both virtually 5-win pitchers according to Baseball-Reference, and the difference there likely comes from Quintana throwing a few more innings than Teheran. Their ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all almost identical and they both achieved their numbers in similar ways, too. Neither pitcher allows many baserunners, and they both strike out about eight batters per nine innings. In 2016, they both also had nearly identical ground-ball rates, and they suppressed homers to the same degree. Both pitchers had incredible seasons in 2016 and were both deserving All Stars, and while Jose Quintana did have a slightly better year and has been the better pitcher for the past several years, Julio Teheran has considerably closed the gap on his fellow statesman.

After seeing how closely the two pitchers’ 2016 stats aligned, I wanted to see how closely their styles of pitching matched up as well. While the approaches are not quite as similar as the statistics, you can see by the pitching styles how the stats could end up so similar. Using PITCHf/x data from Brooksbaseball.com I found that the biggest similarity in their repertoires is their four-seam fastballs. They both rely heavily on this pitch while throwing them about as hard and with similar amounts of movement.

Player	Four Seam Usage	Four Seam Velocity	Four Seam Horizontal Movement	Four Seam Vertical Movement
Julio Teheran	46.4	92.0	-5.1	8.2
Jose Quintana	41.1	92.6	4.6	9.5

 

These fastballs are not particularly special for two pitchers with such pedigree. They are each thrown with just average velocity and with roughly an average amount of downward and horizontal movement. They produce roughly the same amount of ground balls as the average pitcher and miss about as many bats as the average fastball. The most unique aspect of either of these pitchers’ fastballs is that Jose Quintana induces an exorbitant amount of pop-ups, which are basically as good as a strikeout. This allows his otherwise average fastball to play up better than the average starter.

After the four-seamer, their repertoires begin to deviate quite a bit. Quintana relies heavily on his sinker and his curveball as secondaries and mixes in a changeup occasionally. He throws his sinker just as hard as his four-seamer, but he gets more movement from the sinker. Julio Teheran uses his slider as his main secondary, throwing it over 26 percent of the time, while he mixes in a sinker, a changeup, and a curveball as his tertiary offerings. His slider is a plus pitch and he uses it to miss bats, while the other pitches are basically used as change-of-pace offerings to keep hitters off of his fastball and slider combination. Both of these guys get by with just average or better stuff, but command of their arsenal coupled with their mastery of the art of pitching have made them two of the upper-echelon pitching talents in the game.

It would only make sense that two players this similar would have similar contracts, but these contracts go way past similar — they are borderline identical. They are each under team control for the next four years. Teheran will make $37,300,000 and Quintana will make just a few hundred thousand more at $37,850,000, assuming that their respective option years are picked up, which is a pretty safe bet. Their yearly salaries are basically identical as well:

Year	Julio Teheran	Jose Quintana
2017	$    6,300,000.00	$    7,000,000.00
2018	$    8,000,000.00	$    8,850,000.00
2019	$  11,000,000.00	$  10,500,000.00
2020	$  12,000,000.00	$  11,500,000.00
Total	$  37,300,000.00	$  37,850,000.00

 

Neither player’s salary ever deviates more than just a few hundred thousand dollars in any year under these current contracts. It only makes sense that two players with so many similarities would be compensated so similarly, but should they actually be valued the same?

Probably not; while they did have virtually the same season statistically this year, Quintana’s track record for this level of success is longer. Teheran does also have a successful track record, but he did struggle in 2015, and Quintana just seems to be the surer bet at this point. Steamer projects Quintana to be worth over a win more than Teheran in 2017. However, I do believe that their values should be a great deal closer than public perception. Teheran is two years younger than Quintana and could just be hitting his prime, he is signed to the same contract as Quintana, and his stuff may actually be better. Quintana is currently being aggressively shopped and the asking price is said to be roughly the same as the Chris Sale package. Julio Teheran is not worth that kind of package, but it might be closer than you think.

While this year’s iteration of the World Baseball Classic has certainly experienced success, it does not have the juggernaut status that the Football World Cup or the Olympics currently hold. While the Classic will probably never approach the success these two international tournaments have, it does have the potential to spread baseball interest and expand the game around the world, particularly in places like Europe or China. In order for baseball to grow, it has to reach new fan bases outside of the United States, which appears to be at the max of its potential. The WBC is a nice touch to baseball’s international growth, but it needs a few modifications to truly reach its potential.

The problem with the current round-robin format is the attendance figures and interest level with the games involving two lesser-known countries. In pool A, three out of the six games drew less than 5,000 fans, while the other three had more than 10,000 fans each, and two drew more than 25,000. The attendance figures in pool B were even more extreme. three of the games drew less than 2,000 fans, while the other three drew more than 20,000 each. To combat this problem, there have been numerous suggestions about modifying the tournament to turn it into a single elimination format, as Dave Cameron suggested in his post “Fixing the WBC”. This format is definitely the best option for the tournament, as it would increase the interest and attendance in each game given the win or go home nature atmosphere. Hopefully, since all the games would pit a high-seeded team against a low-seeded team, the low-interest games of less than 5,000 fans would be eliminated.

The other advantage to the single-elimination tournament is the elimination of the silly WBC rules and tiebreaking procedures. Run differential would no longer be the difference between advancing out of a pool and going home. The pointless games to determine seeding at the end of the second round would also be eliminated. Perhaps the pitch limits would go away as well because teams would play fewer games. The tournament would no doubt gain some relevancy if the silly rules and restrictions were eliminated.

Most of the potential changes to the WBC involve shortening it to a week or so. While most would agree that the current format is too long, MLB might not bite on a change that shortens the tournament to a mere week. The solution: why not expand the number of teams to 32? The current 16 teams would stay, and all the teams that participated in the qualifier would be added as well. That adds up to 28 teams. I wasn’t really sure what the four other teams could be, so I came up with Pakistan, Russia, Belgium, and Austria. I’m sure there might be better teams out there, but let’s proceed with these four teams to make it easy. To determine the format, I divided the tournament into four conferences: Northwest, Euro, East, and South:

East:                                                    South

1. Japan                                    1. Venezuela
2. South Korea                        2. Australia
3. Taiwan                                 3. Brazil
4. China                                    4. Colombia
5. Israel                                     5. South Africa
6. Czech Republic                   6. New Zealand
7. Pakistan                               7. Philippines
8. Russia                                   8. Thailand

Euro:                             Northwest:

1. Netherlands                     1. Dominican Republic
2. Italy                                    2. United States
3. Spain                                  3. Puerto Rico
4. Germany                            4. Cuba
5. United Kingdom              5. Canada
6. France                                6. Mexico
7. Belgium                              7. Panama
8. Austria                               8. Nicaragua

The current March timing for the WBC works OK, but it’s not perfect. The All-Star break doesn’t work either because MLB would never agree to nix the “beloved” event. That leaves the winter. I’m not sure the middle of the winter makes sense because the offseason is in full swing and free agents wouldn’t want to do it in fear of getting injured. That leaves November and February. Both of these times make sense to me, but I think the players would be less than thrilled to participate right after the postseason. That leaves February. The absence of football is a plus, and players wouldn’t have the excuse of spring training to avoid participation. Assuming that Spring Training starts March 1, here are some potential dates:

February 14: 4 East First Round Games

February 15: 4 South First Round Games

February 16: 4 Euro First Round Games

February 17: 4 Northwest First Round Games

February 19: 2 East Semifinal Games

2 South Semifinal Games

February 20: 2 Euro Semifinal Games

2 Northwest Semifinal Games

February 22: East Final Game

South Final Game

February 23: Euro Final Game

Northwest Final Game

February 25: East Winner vs. South Winner

February 26: Euro Winner vs Northwest Winner

February 28: Final Game

The close proximity of these games might require them to be played in a single country as opposed to the international format used now. I’m not really sure how many countries could host the two-week tournament besides Japan and the United States. Perhaps Japan and the US could alternate until other countries become viable alternative solutions. Or the regional tournament games could be held in that specific region and the winners could meet up for the semis somewhere else, like the current format. It would be great if European countries or other big countries like India could host the WBC, but currently it doesn’t seem likely.

Overall, this format offers some significant advantages to the current one. This version of the classic would have 31 games, only eight less than the current format, which would appeal to MLB because the new version could generate a comparable amount of revenue. However, individual teams would play fewer games, potentially attracting the big stars currently holding out. Already, we have seen players like Chase Headley, Jurickson Profar, Gio Gonzalez, and Kenley Jansen join the Classic in the later rounds when there are fewer games to play. Additionally, players competing for a job in spring training would be more enticed to join the classic because it provides another opportunity to showcase their talent to teams. The injury risk would be less because 1. there are fewer games to play and 2. players would have a longer period of time to recover from injury. Yes, baseball would start earlier, but hopefully this format would attract players the same way the World Cup does for soccer. With increased player participation, more exciting games, more teams involved, and a time frame that doesn’t compete with baseball’s own spring training, these changes make sense for MLB, the players, and most importantly, the fans.

The World Baseball Classic is certainly a noble idea. I mean, what’s not to like about it on paper? You take the best players from each baseball-playing nation and have them battle it out to see which country reigns over the rest of the globe. Can anyone trot out a more thunderous lineup than the USA? Who has the more dynamic pitchers: the Dominican Republic or Venezuela? Does Japan really produce the most fundamentally sound players? Fans all over the world have shown their support for this, as have many players.

All of this would be fine if baseball were like basketball, hockey or soccer; sports where you could wake up, trip over your dog, tumble down the stairs into a pair of cleats, skates or sneakers and play. Those sports employ bio-mechanics the body was designed to handle like running, jumping, kicking and swinging. Baseball, specifically pitching, is not like that. The human arm was not designed to handle the stress and torque put on it by pitching. If you don’t believe me, then I have a few thousand shoulder and elbow scars to show you, including my own.

The lucky few who are able to withstand such actions and be successful are kept on a yearly routine: start throwing in mid-February, build strength and stamina through March before turning up the intensity at the beginning of April. But just like it isn’t wise to turn the ignition on a new Mustang and instantly floor it, it doesn’t seem right to take a pitcher conditioned to ease into a season during Spring Training and tell him to pitch with October-like intensity in March. Unfortunately, this is the case with the WBC.

After looking through the statistics of those who appeared in both WBC tournaments, it is my belief that pitchers who participate in the WBC, especially starters, are far more likely to see a regression in their performance, get hurt or both than pitchers who do not play in the WBC. I reason that the most likely cause is the tournament’s timing disrupts the normal routine of pitchers and their arms are not yet ready to handle the stress and intensity then. With data collected from various sources, I will demonstrate the stark differences between WBC pitchers and their counterparts who did not participate in the tournament, using spreadsheet data and graphs included in this analysis.

***

The pitchers who were included in this study had to satisfy a few conditions. First, pitchers in the WBC group had to have pitched primarily in Major League Baseball in 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2009[1]. Players who played in one year but not another (spent one year in the minors or injured; or retired after a WBC) were not included. For the baseline of starters and relievers, a pitcher who made 10 or more starts for the year was counted as a starter while a pitcher who made 25 or more appearances with nine or fewer starts was counted as a reliever. The “all pitchers” category includes every pitcher who made an appearance during the 2005, 2006, 2008 and/or 2009 seasons.

***

At the heart of it, the key to successful pitching is how good you are in preventing runs from scoring, with ERA and component ERA (ERC)[2] being the primary statistics used to measure this aspect. The MLB’s ERA usually falls between 4.25 and 4.45 in most years, with only small differences from season to season. The last four groups saw small-to-moderate increases in their ERA between 2005 and 2006, but WBC starting pitchers saw a dramatic jump, from 3.75 to 4.48 while the ERC inflated from 4.09 to 4.79. WBC relievers also saw a significant jump in their collective ERAs (3.15 to 3.51), but not only is that only roughly half of what starters experienced, WBC relievers saw their ERC drop from 3.86 to 3.41. Compared against the league-wide ERA/ERC jumps of 0.24 (4.29 to 4.53) and 0.25 (4.18 to 4.43), respectively, the WBC starters’ jumps look even more like one of Superman’s single bounds. A major factor for this spike may be the above-average rise in HR/9 ratios. The average MLB starter showed no increase in his HR/9 rates and all other groups had increases of 0.1, but the HR/9 rates of WBC starters rose by 0.2 (0.9 – 1.1).

Home runs aren’t so bad, just as long as there isn’t anyone on base, but WBC starters were putting more and more runners on in 2006. Starting pitchers saw the highest rise in WHIP out of the five groups. The major league-average increase in WHIP between 2005 and 2006 was 0.04 (1.37 to 1.41), but the average WBC-participating starter saw his WHIP rise double that amount (0.08) from 1.29 to 1.37. Part of that increase was fueled by an up-tick in their BB/9 rates, which climbed from 2.9 to 3.1 (0.2). The most startling changes, though, were with the starters’ rising H/9 rates and falling K/9 rates . While all other groups saw a 0.2 increase in their H/9 ratios, WBC-participating starters’ ratios shot up by 0.5, going from 8.7 in 2005 to 9.2 in 2006. This may be attributed to a pitcher’s prematurely tired arm or improper mechanics from being rushed along during what normally is Spring Training. Either way, the pitches became more hittable, which also showed a decrease in these pitchers’ ability to strike batters out.

Every group I collected data on showed an improvement in their K/9 ratios by 0.2…except for WBC-participating starters. Their K/9 ratios actually fell, going from 7.0 in 2005 to 6.7 in 2006—a drop of 0.3 whiffs per nine innings. A good K/9 ratio shows both how good a pitcher is at retiring a batter without the help of his fielders and how dominant his repertoire is. The higher, the better. When I see that one group’s ratio is regressing while all others are improving, that would make me a little curious as to what may be causing such a downturn, especially with a group as valuable as starting pitchers. If I were in a team’s front office, it would make me wonder if this little event that is supposedly good for baseball is actually harming my pitcher and my team’s playoff chances.

***

Now, this wouldn’t so much of a concern if the pitchers who saw this decline in performance were just hurlers on the wrong side of 30 and/or at the tail-end of their contract, but that’s not a case. Pitchers like Jake Peavy and Dontrelle Willis saw their performances take a dive after participating in the 2006 WBC, while promising up-and-comers like Francisco Liriano and Gustavo Chacin suffered major injuries that year. Two of the more alarming examples are Peavy and Willis, two National League hurlers from pitcher-friendly ballparks who use complicated or violent deliveries.

Peavy seemed out of sorts during the first half of the 2006 season, posting ERAs of 5.17 or worse in three of the first four months. It was during this time that Peavy was also prone to the long ball, serving up 14 of his 23 home runs in April, May and June. The “gopher-itis” lessened once July hit, but then Peavy had a little more trouble finding the strike zone. After issuing no more than eight free passes in each of the first three months, Peavy walked 12 or more batters in every month during latter half of the season. Peavy eventually straightened himself out in 2007, but the same cannot be said for Willis. After nearly winning the Cy Young in 2005, Willis never could establish any consistency in 2006. His WHIP climbed an astonishing 0.29 points from 1.13 (sixth in the NL) to 1.42 (outside the top 30). At the same time, his HR/9 rate doubled from 0.4 to 0.8 while his opponents’ OPS climbed from .644 to .745. Since then, Willis’ regression went from bad to worse and is now viewed as little more than a reclamation project for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

***

Whereas 2006 saw a decline in WBC pitchers’ performance, the 2009 tournament participants saw an even more disturbing trend: a steep drop in their time on the mound. There were only negligible decreases in innings pitched following the 2006 WBC—10.1 percent for starters, 2.6 percent for relievers—but those figures worsened dramatically following this past tournament. WBC starters pitched, on average, 21.1 percent fewer innings in 2009 than they did in 2008 while relievers saw their innings totals drop by 27.2 percent. Houston ace Roy Oswalt saw his streak of five consecutive 200-inning seasons come to an end due to chronic back problems. Cincinnati’s Edinson Volquez appeared in one WBC game, then made only nine starts during the regular season before undergoing “Tommy John” surgery[3].

A second trend I noticed involved those pitchers who were in the playoffs the previous season. Out of the 11 pitchers who appeared in both the ’08 playoffs and the ’09 WBC, eight of them missed time due to injury (or, in the case of Javier Lopez, demotion) or saw an overall regression in their performance. The pitchers from this group who spent time on the disabled list pitched anywhere from 13.5 percent to 80.3 percent fewer innings than they had in ’08. Some of the more notable examples include Red Sox right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka, whose 59.1 innings in ’09 were the fewest he’s pitched in either Japan or America, and Angels set-up man Scot Shields, who had never been on the disabled list for his entire nine-year big league career.

***

There are more examples of pitchers seeing their fortunes change for the worse after either of the two WBCs, like Bartolo Colon’s shoulder falling apart after rushing through rehab and Esteban Loaiza’s collapse in Oakland in 2006 or how Volquez’s elbow went kaput in the middle of 2009. I won’t list every pitcher who suffered, but my point is clear: the WBC increases the chances for pitchers to suffer injuries, see an across-the-board decline in performance or both. As I stated earlier, I feel the biggest reason for these unfortunate trends is the timing of the tournament. Holding this tournament in the early spring can only damage the health and careers of the players who wish to represent their countries and, in turn, hurt the player’s team both on the field and their long-term organizational plan. I feel the best possible resolution would be to hold the tournament at two different times: have the preliminary rounds during the week of the All-Star Game—while giving MLB, the Japanese leagues and all other leagues a mid-season break—and the final two rounds shortly after the World Series. This way, not only would the careers and health of the pitchers be better preserved, but it would also be highly beneficial to MLB as a whole.

Under the current scheduling, the WBC and MLB has to battle against the NCAA men’s basketball championship tournament for ratings and coverage. Since all other major professional and collegiate leagues are inactive in July, it would allow MLB a better opportunity to drum up interest in the tournament and give less well-known baseball-playing nations a bigger platform to perform. The week off would also benefit the players who are not in the WBC, as they would have had time to recover from injuries and spend invaluable time with family and friends. Lastly, the buzz over a recently completed World Series could carry over to the final stages of the WBC, with story lines from the first phase being built up prior to the resumption of the tournament. Playoff-participating players could have the option of continuing in the tournament or allow other players, who spent most of October resting and re-energizing, to go in their places. Those fresh bodies would also improve the quality of play seen by the fans.

The bottom line is this: the World Baseball Classic is an excellent idea, but is poorly executed in its current form, with pitchers suffering the most damage. Pitchers are the most valuable and volatile commodity in baseball and MLB should do its very best in order to protect that commodity. Even though there have been only two tournaments to study, the numbers are very clear and the logical decision to change should be made.

Michael Echan is a freelance sports writer from New Jersey. Please contact him if you would like to see the compiled spreadsheet data and graphs. He may be reached at mcechan@hotmail.com

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[1] Francisco Liriano spent most of 2005 in the minors, but was included because he spent most of 2006 with Minnesota before a season-ending elbow injury in August. Luis Ayala was on Washington’s roster in 2006, but injured his elbow during the WBC.

[2] ERC is a statistic created by Bill James. It takes the number of hits, walks, home runs, hit batters and total batters faced by a pitcher to give an “alternate” ERA that better reflects his performance.

[3] Volquez did pitch a career-high 196 innings in 2008, his first full season in the big leagues, but has had his workload gradually increased during his career. His combined innings progression: 140 in ’05, 154 in ’06, 178.2 in ’07, 196 in ’08.