Streaking with Phil Hughes

Phil Hughes is currently enjoying his most fruitful season as a starter. Indeed, he has already received considerable attention for his improved control  and refined repertoire. Nonetheless, several recent feats merit additional attention.  Indeed, Phil Hughes’ most recent start against the Chicago White Sox saw several notable streaks come to an end.

 

 

Hughes certainly wasn’t pleased with himself, and for good reason: he had just issued a free pass and put a runner on first base. Perhaps Hughes grasped the historic implications of that BB — he hadn’t issued a walk since August 10^th against the A’s. That streak spanned 160 consecutive batters faced, including five walk-free games. Hughes pitched 37 innings without giving up a walk over those five games — the average MLB starting pitcher, posting a BB/9 of 2.7, would have walked over 11 batters during that span.

Hughes’ streak certainly appears impressive, but exactly how does it compare to his peers? Well, no other starting pitcher has managed such a streak this season… except for Phil Hughes. That’s right — Hughes had already posted a streak of 178 consecutive batters faced without a walk. Spanning from April 20^th to June 1^st, that streak included six walk-free games!

Hughes’ refusal to issue walks puts him in some pretty elite company. Observe the table below:

Table 1: For Starting Pitchers from 1969-2014, Longest Consecutive BB-Free Game Streaks, Sorted by IP.

Rk	Name	Strk Start	End	IP	Games	W	GS	CG	H	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	HBP	Tm
1	Greg Maddux	6/25/2001	8/7/2001	65.1	9	8	9	1	69	22	0	45	3	3.03	0	ATL
2	Randy Jones	5/21/1976	6/18/1976	60	7	5	7	5	53	16	0	14	5	2.4	0	SDP
3	Greg Maddux	8/3/2007	9/13/2007	53.2	9	5	9	0	56	19	0	30	2	3.19	1	SDP
4	David Wells	9/6/2002	4/16/2003	53	7	6	7	2	42	11	0	36	4	1.87	4	NYY
5	Javier Vazquez	5/1/2005	6/4/2005	50	7	3	7	2	51	19	0	41	4	3.42	3	ARI
6	Greg Maddux	6/9/1995	7/6/1995	47	6	4	6	2	39	5	0	36	1	0.96	0	ATL
7	Bob Tewksbury	6/20/1993	7/17/1993	44	6	4	6	0	43	12	0	21	2	2.45	1	STL
8	David Wells	8/24/2004	9/18/2004	41	6	5	6	0	36	14	0	28	6	3.07	0	SDP
9	Phil Hughes	4/26/2014	5/27/2014	40.1	6	4	6	0	38	7	0	30	1	1.56	0	MIN
10	Paul Byrd	5/4/2007	5/30/2007	40	6	4	6	0	49	16	0	21	6	3.6	1	CLE
11	Randy Jones	4/23/1980	5/16/1980	39.1	5	3	5	3	26	4	0	17	1	0.92	0	SDP
12	Bob Tewksbury	6/20/1992	7/9/1992	38.2	5	3	5	2	37	4	0	17	1	0.93	0	STL
T-13	LaMarr Hoyt	7/13/1983	8/7/1983	38.1	6	5	6	1	44	18	0	24	6	4.23	0	CHW
T-13	Brian Anderson	8/28/1998	9/19/1998	38.1	5	3	5	1	37	12	0	13	5	2.82	0	ARI
T-15	Cliff Lee	9/23/2012	4/9/2013	37.2	5	2	5	0	30	7	0	37	5	1.67	0	PHI
T-15	Moose Haas	4/16/1982	5/10/1982	37.2	5	1	5	0	37	12	0	19	2	2.87	2	MIL
T-17	Phil Hughes	8/16/2014	9/6/2014	37	5	3	5	0	31	9	0	31	3	2.19	2	MIN
T-17	Curt Schilling	5/13/2002	6/3/2002	37	5	4	5	0	26	9	0	47	1	2.19	2	ARI
19	Brad Radke	4/19/2005	5/10/2005	36.2	5	2	5	2	41	12	0	24	6	2.95	0	MIN
T-20	Brian Tollberg	7/16/2001	8/22/2001	36.1	6	3	6	0	44	19	0	24	6	4.71	2	SDP
T-20	Curt Schilling	8/20/2004	9/10/2004	36.1	5	5	5	0	28	9	0	34	3	2.23	1	BOS

Since the mound was lowered 45 years ago, Hughes’ streaks rank 9^th and T-17^th respectively. Notice the other pitchers who have multiple streaks in the top 20: Greg Maddux, David Wells, Randy Jones and Curt Schilling. For a guy who signed for $8M/year, that’s some impressive company (and Randy Jones). While Phil Hughes certainly isn’t Greg Maddux, his ability to limit walks has helped him post an xFIP of 3.17 this year, giving the Twins the closest thing to a true No. 1 starter they’ve had since Johan Santana.

Interestingly enough, Hughes made even more history against the Chicago White Sox, this time snapping a team-wide streak for the Minnesota Twins.

 

At first glance, there is hardly anything remarkable about this outcome. Hughes has struck out 175 other batters faced this season, and Tyler Flowers has struck out in 152 other plate appearances. This, however, was Hughes’ 10^th strikeout of the day — an arbitrary but nonetheless impressive feat.

With this punch-out, Hughes finally put an end to an ugly streak in Twins’ recent history: a Twins’ starting pitcher hadn’t fanned 10 batters in an outing since Francisco Liriano’s 10K performance against the Baltimore Orioles on July 18^th, 2012. The Twins’ streak of 379 games without 10 punch-outs from a starting pitcher was the longest active streak in the league. During that 379-game drought, starting pitchers from the league’s 29 other teams amassed a total of 497 10-strikeout performances.

It’s no secret that Twins’ starters have been remarkably inept at missing bats in recent history. The table below depicts the depth of their woes over the past five seasons.

Table 2: From 2009-2014, Starter K/9 Including Mean & Standard Deviation

Rank	Team	K/9
1	Giants	7.85
5	Cubs	7.38
10	Braves	7.23
Mean	–	6.96
15	Marlins	6.93
20	Angels	6.81
25	Athletics	6.64
29	Orioles	6.28
30	Twins	5.84
σ	–	0.44

At more than 2.5 standard deviations below the mean K/9, Twins’ starting pitchers have been tremendously poor at striking hitters out over the last five seasons. Whether or not this has been a function of design or merely ineffectiveness, the Twins’ rotation has severely hurt the team, posting an ERA of 4.88 during that period. Within this context, Hughes’ outing is truly shocking.

Perhaps Hughes’ outing is a sign of better fortunes to come for the Twins. Perhaps it was an anomaly. Both Hughes (11K) and Quintana (13K) set career-high strikeout totals in their respective starts. At one point, the never-prone-to-hyperbole White Sox broadcast team proclaimed, “You give Chris Sale this visibility, starting every game at home…he would re-write the strikeout record book.”

Regardless of the game conditions, Hughes’ start featured several remarkable feats. Ironically, while Hughes’ lone walk (a negative outcome) allows us to appreciate his greatness, his 10^th strikeout (a positive outcome) allows us to contextualize the Twins’ incompetence. Here’s to you, Phil.

Editor’s Note: As I conclude this article, the Twins’ Trevor May has just fanned 10 batters in his Sunday start against the White Sox. Here’s to you as well, Trevor.

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs, historical data courtesy of Baseball-Reference, and gifs courtesy of MLB.TV.

Ben Cermak lives in Manhattan and spends far too much time thinking and writing about baseball. You can contact him via email at bcermak14@gmail.com