One of the beautiful things about WAR is the way it assigns value to separate, unique elements of player performance. Perhaps one of the lesser-appreciated elements of WAR is BsR, which measures the value of a player’s baserunning.

BsR contains two separate components: wSB and UBR. wSB describes a player’s value added through base stealing, and UBR measures the cumulative value of a player’s base path advancements outside of stealing.

One might imagine that these two components demand similar skill sets. To excel in either, a player must have a: reasonable speed and b: good instincts on the base paths. Indeed, it would be fairly surprising to see a great disparity between the two components for any given player’s baserunning.

In a quest to discover the most puzzling baserunners, I searched for the largest absolute difference between wSB and UBR over a player’s career. There were several noteworthy constraints, a: our UBR data begins in 2002, limiting the search to the past 13 seasons and b: a general difference in magnitude between wSB and UBR. Because UBR governs all base running events outside of stolen bases, players typically see far more opportunities to accrue UBR than wSB value.

To adjust for this factor, I assigned each of the 685 qualified players a percentile rank for wSB and UBR. After sorting by the largest absolute difference in percentile, the truly anomalous base runners became apparent. Consider:

Table 1: From 2002-2014, Largest Absolute Differences in wSB and UBR Percentile

Well, there he is — among the anomalous, David Dejesus reigns supreme. While the average player carries a 22% difference between wSB and UBR percentile, Dejesus clocks in at more than 3.5 standard deviations above the mean. In 123 career stolen base attempts, Dejesus has succeeded in swiping the extra bag only 63 times. That’s certainly a less-than-stellar success rate. Nonetheless, Dejesus’ uncanny knack for taking extra bases on balls in play salvages his value as a baserunner; while Dejesus’ failures as a thief cost his team more than 15 runs, his ability to advance on the basepaths during the course of play has credited his team roughly 20 runs, or 2 wins.

Similarly, Cristian Guzman, Casey Blake, Clint Barmes and Dan Uggla all cost their teams with the stolen base, but ultimately produced positive baserunning value due to their ability to advance extra bases on balls in play. With two exceptions, the top 20 is filled with players who struggled to steal bases but excelled in running them.

Of the top 20 differences, only Barry Bonds and Moises Alou possess a baserunning disparity driven by a positive wSB and negative UBR. Strangely enough, by 2002 both players had already seen a decline in their stolen base totals. Nonetheless, each managed to accrue positive value via thievery, only to give it back (and then some) throughout the course of their time on the base paths.

Ultimately, there exists a relatively easy solution for players who hurt their teams via the stolen base: stop attempting steals. By minimizing their exposure to negative outcomes in base stealing, players can maximize their baserunning value. Unfortunately for players who possess a negative UBR, there is no simple solution. While players can minimize their stolen bases attempted, they cannot avoid the daily labor of running the bases. For most of the “anomalous” players in the table above, a small tweak of strategy could have improved their value over time. In the case of David DeJesus, a league average wSB could have saved his teams close to 20 runs — roughly 2 wins. Although hitting and defense deserve the attention they receive, WAR’s baserunning components play a fascinating role in player valuation.

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.

The BABIP gods are a most fickle bunch. They come and go as they please, gracing the bats of some while abandoning others altogether. Take Chris Johnson, for example. Aided by a .394 BABIP (roughly 10% greater than his career average), Johnson finished second to Michael Cuddyer in pursuit of the 2013 NL batting title. This season, however, Johnson’s batting average has dropped 58 points following a BABIP regression. Losing a portion of his hits has certainly hurt Johnson’s offensive production — this season, Johnson has produced runs at a rate 19% below league average.

BABIP is not entirely driven by luck, however. In fact, each hitter’s batted ball profile influences their BABIP. Generally speaking, players who hit more line drives and ground balls carry a higher BABIP than fly ball hitters. While it seems reasonable for Derek Jeter and Joe Mauer to carry career BABIPs in the neighborhood of .350, expecting Adam Dunn to sustain a similar BABIP would be folly.

Now, to Chris Iannetta. Sporting a career fly ball rate of 42.8%, the Angels’ backstop is a true fly ball hitter. Iannetta’s 2014 batted ball profile bears a striking resemblance to that of his 2013 campaign. Observe the table below:

Table 1: Batted Ball Profiles for Chris Iannetta, 2013 & 2014

Very similar. Although a hitter’s BABIP is not solely dependent on his batted ball profile, we might reasonably expect Iannetta’s 2014 BABIP to reside in the neighborhood of his 2013 mark. Well ladies and gentlemen, at the time of this writing, Chris Iannetta carries a 2014 BABIP of .330, a mark 16.6% above his career average of .283!

A peculiar development indeed. Let’s take a step back and examine Iannetta’s run production in a broader context:

Table 2: Offensive Production for Chris Iannetta, 2013 & 2014

The BABIP gods have certainly smiled on Iannetta this season. Despite the same ability to hit for power and a minor dip in plate discipline, Iannetta’s BABIP spike has fueled a 16% increase in run production. Among catchers with a minimum of 350 plate appearances, Iannetta’s wRC+ currently ranks him the sixth-best hitting catcher in the league. Iannetta’s newfound singles are certainly helping the Angels’ cause.

Because of random variation and luck, it is hardly rare for a hitter to experience a jump in BABIP. What is truly remarkable, however, is that Iannetta’s BABIP has jumped 15% above his career average while he has produced fly balls at a rate 20% greater than league average. To experience such a spike in BABIP while hitting a high percentage of fly balls seems quite rare. But how rare?

In order to better appreciate the peculiarity of Iannetta’s season and look for possible comparisons, I searched the past five seasons for players who experienced a BABIP jump 15% greater than career average while producing fly balls at a rate 20% above league average. Consider the table below:

Table 3: From 2009-2013, Player Seasons with a BABIP 15% Greater than Career Average, Fly Ball Rate 20% Greater than League Average (Minimum 400 PA)

That’s a motley crew. At first glance, one commonality emerges. Unsurprisingly, each hitter experienced significant BABIP regression the year after their jump. The BABIP gods hit some harder than others. Adam Dunn seems like an unfair comparison for what might happen to Iannetta — his remarkably terrible 2011 was fueled by more than BABIP regression. Similarly, Nick Swisher, Mark Reynolds and 2011 Colby Rasmus each saw fairly significant erosion in their power numbers. Swisher retained a good portion his productivity by dramatically increasing his BB%, but I don’t think that’s a fair expectation for Iannetta.

Perhaps the best example of what might happen to Iannetta is 2013-14 Colby Rasmus. In the midst of a BABIP regression, Rasmus has maintained his power numbers and plate discipline. Nonetheless, he’s currently producing runs at a rate 27% lower than last year. Those extra outs sure do add up.

Ultimately, if Iannetta can sustain his ISO and BB%, he should remain valuable for the Angels. Although Iannetta is on the wrong side of the aging curve, a mild BABIP regression with minor skill erosion would forecast a wRC+ somewhere in the neighborhood of 105-115. The Angels will certainly take that from their catcher.

Interestingly enough, the only hitter besides Iannetta to fit the parameters of a BABIP 15% greater than career average and fly ball rate 20% greater than league average this season is Devin Mesoraco. Mesoraco, however, is currently enjoying a well-documented swing renaissance, rendering his career BABIP rate generally unreliable for the purposes of this study. Going forward, Mesoraco is much more likely to sustain his present success than Iannetta.

Phil Hughes is currently enjoying his most fruitful season as a starter. Indeed, he has already received considerable attention for his improved control  and refined repertoire. Nonetheless, several recent feats merit additional attention.  Indeed, Phil Hughes’ most recent start against the Chicago White Sox saw several notable streaks come to an end.

Hughes certainly wasn’t pleased with himself, and for good reason: he had just issued a free pass and put a runner on first base. Perhaps Hughes grasped the historic implications of that BB — he hadn’t issued a walk since August 10^th against the A’s. That streak spanned 160 consecutive batters faced, including five walk-free games. Hughes pitched 37 innings without giving up a walk over those five games — the average MLB starting pitcher, posting a BB/9 of 2.7, would have walked over 11 batters during that span.

Hughes’ streak certainly appears impressive, but exactly how does it compare to his peers? Well, no other starting pitcher has managed such a streak this season… except for Phil Hughes. That’s right — Hughes had already posted a streak of 178 consecutive batters faced without a walk. Spanning from April 20^th to June 1^st, that streak included six walk-free games!

Hughes’ refusal to issue walks puts him in some pretty elite company. Observe the table below:

Table 1: For Starting Pitchers from 1969-2014, Longest Consecutive BB-Free Game Streaks, Sorted by IP.

Since the mound was lowered 45 years ago, Hughes’ streaks rank 9^th and T-17^th respectively. Notice the other pitchers who have multiple streaks in the top 20: Greg Maddux, David Wells, Randy Jones and Curt Schilling. For a guy who signed for $8M/year, that’s some impressive company (and Randy Jones). While Phil Hughes certainly isn’t Greg Maddux, his ability to limit walks has helped him post an xFIP of 3.17 this year, giving the Twins the closest thing to a true No. 1 starter they’ve had since Johan Santana.

Interestingly enough, Hughes made even more history against the Chicago White Sox, this time snapping a team-wide streak for the Minnesota Twins.

At first glance, there is hardly anything remarkable about this outcome. Hughes has struck out 175 other batters faced this season, and Tyler Flowers has struck out in 152 other plate appearances. This, however, was Hughes’ 10^th strikeout of the day — an arbitrary but nonetheless impressive feat.

With this punch-out, Hughes finally put an end to an ugly streak in Twins’ recent history: a Twins’ starting pitcher hadn’t fanned 10 batters in an outing since Francisco Liriano’s 10K performance against the Baltimore Orioles on July 18^th, 2012. The Twins’ streak of 379 games without 10 punch-outs from a starting pitcher was the longest active streak in the league. During that 379-game drought, starting pitchers from the league’s 29 other teams amassed a total of 497 10-strikeout performances.

It’s no secret that Twins’ starters have been remarkably inept at missing bats in recent history. The table below depicts the depth of their woes over the past five seasons.

Table 2: From 2009-2014, Starter K/9 Including Mean & Standard Deviation

At more than 2.5 standard deviations below the mean K/9, Twins’ starting pitchers have been tremendously poor at striking hitters out over the last five seasons. Whether or not this has been a function of design or merely ineffectiveness, the Twins’ rotation has severely hurt the team, posting an ERA of 4.88 during that period. Within this context, Hughes’ outing is truly shocking.

Perhaps Hughes’ outing is a sign of better fortunes to come for the Twins. Perhaps it was an anomaly. Both Hughes (11K) and Quintana (13K) set career-high strikeout totals in their respective starts. At one point, the never-prone-to-hyperbole White Sox broadcast team proclaimed, “You give Chris Sale this visibility, starting every game at home…he would re-write the strikeout record book.”

Regardless of the game conditions, Hughes’ start featured several remarkable feats. Ironically, while Hughes’ lone walk (a negative outcome) allows us to appreciate his greatness, his 10^th strikeout (a positive outcome) allows us to contextualize the Twins’ incompetence. Here’s to you, Phil.

Editor’s Note: As I conclude this article, the Twins’ Trevor May has just fanned 10 batters in his Sunday start against the White Sox. Here’s to you as well, Trevor.

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs, historical data courtesy of Baseball-Reference, and gifs courtesy of MLB.TV.

Ben Cermak lives in Manhattan and spends far too much time thinking and writing about baseball. You can contact him via email at bcermak14@gmail.com