Starting Pitcher Pitch Rankings

As I stated in my earlier article, I would be posting data from my pitch-effectiveness measurement I introduced. Let’s start with the starting pitchers.

1. Top Ten Four-Seam Fastballs (Min 500):

Player	Sw+Whf%	Sw+Whf% Z	xwOBA	xwOBA Z	Z Total
Chris Sale	85.89	3.08	0.24	2.86	5.94
Jacob deGrom	83.06	2.68	0.27	2.13	4.81
Jose Berrios	74.74	1.51	0.27	1.97	3.48
Jimmy Nelson	76.65	1.78	0.30	1.34	3.12
Jeff Samardzija	75.97	1.68	0.30	1.34	3.02
Max Scherzer	73.97	1.40	0.29	1.55	2.95
Chase Anderson	74.24	1.44	0.29	1.45	2.89
Rick Porcello	77.50	1.90	0.31	0.87	2.77
James Paxton	73.32	1.31	0.29	1.42	2.73
Danny Salazar	80.27	2.29	0.33	0.42	2.71

The Stars: Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, James Paxton

Young and Coming: Jose Berrios

Surprises: Rick Porcello, Chase Anderson, Jeff Samardzija

This group includes some bona-fide talent and some surprises. Porcello’s 1.90 Z-Score on the Sw+Whf% jumps out, considering his lack of stuff and general pitch to contact. Anderson is quietly putting together a solid season, with a 2.88 ERA in 122 innings of work. Samardzija’s incredible strikeout and walk peripherals have been well documented this year.

2. Top Ten Two-Seam Fastballs (Min 300):

Player	Sw+Whf%	Sw+Whf% Z	xwOBA	xwOBA Z	Z Total
Sonny Gray	72.12	2.18	0.30	1.39	3.57
Jaime Garcia	67.96	1.49	0.28	1.97	3.46
David Price	72.83	2.29	0.32	0.86	3.15
Lance Lynn	66.66	1.27	0.31	1.16	2.43
Matt Garza	65.31	1.05	0.30	1.34	2.39
Luis Castillo	64.66	0.94	0.30	1.44	2.38
Chris Sale	65.23	1.04	0.30	1.34	2.38
Jameson Taillon	69.98	1.82	0.34	0.40	2.23
J.A. Happ	63.82	0.80	0.30	1.29	2.09
Julio Teheran	69.27	1.71	0.35	0.20	1.91

The Stars: Sonny Gray, David Price, Chris Sale, Julio Teheran

Young and Coming: Jameson Taillon, Luis Castillo

Surprises: Jaime Garcia, Matt Garza

We see Sale again, which, considering what he has done this year, is not surprising. Garza has been generally terrible this year, so his inclusion in this list is unexpected. Castillo, a rookie for the Cincinnati Reds, has pieced together some quality starts out of the spotlight.

3. Top Five Cut Fastballs (Min 200):

Player	Sw+Whf%	Sw+Whf% Z	xwOBA	xwOBA Z	Z Total
James Paxton	89.03	1.81	0.20	2.03	3.84
Corey Kluber	97.90	2.82	0.28	0.48	3.30
Tyler Chatwood	84.08	1.25	0.21	1.81	3.06
John Lackey	84.72	1.32	0.26	0.85	2.17
Zack Godley	78.94	0.66	0.24	1.39	2.05

(Only five because the small use of cutters)

The Stars: James Paxton, Corey Kluber

Young and Coming: Zach Godley

Surprises: Tyler Chatwood

We see Paxton again, who has established himself as a star this season. Godley has been great for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and Tyler Chatwood has been poor for the Colorado Rockies.

4. Top Five Sinker Fastball (Min 200):

Player	Sw+Whf%	Sw+Whf% Z	xwOBA	xwOBA Z	Z Total
Trevor Williams	68.72	1.87	0.30	1.73	3.61
Jimmy Nelson	65.69	1.43	0.32	1.11	2.54
Jose Quintana	64.77	1.29	0.32	1.18	2.47
Jon Lester	61.89	0.87	0.31	1.29	2.17
Jake Arrieta	58.31	0.35	0.31	1.43	1.78

(Only five because the small use of sinkers)

The Stars: Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Jose Quintana

Young and Coming: Trevor Williams

Surprises: None

An emerging starter for the Pittsburgh Pirates, an emerging ace for the Milwaukee Brewers, and…three Chicago Cubs. I gave the Cubs pitchers the benefit of the doubt and put them under “The Stars” category, but they may have pitched their way out of there this season.

5. Top Two Splitter Fastball (Min 200):

Player	Sw+Whf%	Sw+Whf% Z	xwOBA	xwOBA Z	Z Total
Kevin Gausman	94.79	0.96	0.21	1.61	2.57
Ricky Nolasco	95.42	1.02	0.22	1.35	2.37

The splitter leaderboard included only nine starters, so this one is short. Kevin Gausman has rebounded from a horrendous start to be solid, and Ricky Nolasco has continued to provide what he always has: mediocrity.

6. Top Ten Curveball (Min 300):

Player	Sw+Whf%	Sw+Whf% Z	xwOBA	xwOBA Z	Z Total
Corey Kluber	109.61	3.16	0.12	2.26	5.42
Charlie Morton	88.69	1.30	0.17	1.44	2.74
James Paxton	84.54	0.93	0.16	1.49	2.42
Zack Godley	93.67	1.74	0.22	0.60	2.35
Aaron Nola	87.91	1.23	0.19	1.07	2.30
Carlos Carrasco	88.65	1.30	0.19	0.99	2.28
Ivan Nova	84.32	0.91	0.18	1.21	2.12
James Shields	91.18	1.52	0.22	0.50	2.02
Alex Meyer	82.68	0.76	0.19	1.07	1.84
Jon Lester	89.57	1.38	0.22	0.45	1.82

The Stars: Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Carlos Carrasco

Young and Coming: Zach Godley

Surprises: James Shields, Alex Meyer, John Lester, Charlie Morton

We see Kluber again, and Godley again, and Paxton for a third time. No surprise considering the seasons they have put up. Shields’ days as a front-of-the-rotation starter are far behind him. Meyer has quietly put together some solid starts for the Los Angeles Angels as a complete unknown. Lester is a surprise here because this is his second leaderboard appearance, and he has not pitched well. Morton is mostly known for his injury problems, but he has developed some of the best “stuff” in the game in his first year in Houston.

7. Top Ten Slider (Min 300):

Player	Sw+Whf%	Sw+Whf% Z	xwOBA	xwOBA Z	Z Total
Carlos Carrasco	108.62	2.51	0.15	2.06	4.56
Max Scherzer	104.66	2.10	0.17	1.79	3.89
Sonny Gray	97.27	1.35	0.16	1.87	3.22
Dylan Bundy	99.46	1.58	0.19	1.28	2.85
Clayton Kershaw	101.38	1.77	0.22	0.82	2.59
Patrick Corbin	94.91	1.11	0.19	1.24	2.35
Marcus Stroman	96.92	1.32	0.21	1.03	2.34
Zack Greinke	104.05	2.04	0.24	0.30	2.34
Mike Clevinger	96.96	1.32	0.21	1.01	2.33
Mike Leake	96.40	1.27	0.21	0.93	2.20

The Stars: Carlos Carrasco, Max Scherzer, Sonny Gray, Clayton Kershaw, Marcus Stroman, Zach Greinke

Young and Coming: Dylan Bundy, Mike Clevinger

Surprises: Patrick Corbin

Finally! The man we have been waiting to see, Kershaw, makes his first appearance. As does Scherzer. The star power of this group is by far the strongest. Bundy has been “Young and Coming” for decades it seems now, and no one knows if the flashes will become consistency ever. Still just 24 years old, though, so I will keep my hopes up. Clevinger has been a nice surprise for the Cleveland Indians, and Corbin has bounced back from a miserable 2016 to be solid for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

8. Top Ten Changeup (Min 300):

Player	Sw+Whf%	Sw+Whf% Z	xwOBA	xwOBA Z	Z Total
Stephen Strasburg	104.30	2.31	0.15	2.76	5.07
Luis Castillo	97.25	1.46	0.18	2.27	3.73
Danny Salazar	102.60	2.11	0.23	1.01	3.12
Kyle Hendricks	95.35	1.23	0.22	1.25	2.49
Max Scherzer	90.38	0.63	0.20	1.72	2.35
Edinson Volquez	91.28	0.74	0.21	1.54	2.28
Carlos Carrasco	86.47	0.16	0.19	1.90	2.06
Eduardo Rodriguez	95.70	1.28	0.26	0.48	1.76
Jason Vargas	91.99	0.83	0.26	0.46	1.29
Cole Hamels	93.09	0.96	0.27	0.24	1.20

The Stars: Stephen Strasburg, Kyle Hendricks, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, Cole Hamels

Young and Coming: Luis Castillo, Eduardo Rodriguez

Surprises: Edinson Volquez

Scherzer again, which makes me feel better about the validity of this work. Carrasco for the third time in a row. His breaking and offspeed stuff are killer. Very few people outside of Cincinnati know Castillo, but this is the rookie’s second leaderboard appearance. Rodriguez has continued to flash this year, but injuries and inconsistency continue for the young Red Sock. Volquez is still embracing his mediocrity.

Starters Top Fifteen Overall:

Pitch	Player	Sw+Whf%	Sw+Whf% Z	xwOBA	xwOBA Z	Z Total
4-Seam	Chris Sale	85.89	3.08	0.24	2.86	5.94
Curveball	Corey Kluber	109.61	3.16	0.12	2.26	5.42
Changeup	Stephen Strasburg	104.30	2.31	0.15	2.76	5.07
4-Seam	Jacob deGrom	83.06	2.68	0.27	2.13	4.81
Slider	Carlos Carrasco	108.62	2.51	0.15	2.06	4.56
Slider	Max Scherzer	104.66	2.10	0.17	1.79	3.89
Cutter	James Paxton	89.03	1.81	0.20	2.03	3.84
Changeup	Luis Castillo	97.25	1.46	0.18	2.27	3.73
Sinker	Trevor Williams	68.72	1.87	0.30	1.73	3.61
2-Seam	Sonny Gray	72.12	2.18	0.30	1.39	3.57
4-Seam	Jose Berrios	74.74	1.51	0.27	1.97	3.48
2-Seam	Jaime Garcia	67.96	1.49	0.28	1.97	3.46
Cutter	Corey Kluber	97.90	2.82	0.28	0.48	3.30
Slider	Sonny Gray	97.27	1.35	0.16	1.87	3.22
2-Seam	David Price	72.83	2.29	0.32	0.86	3.15

Best Pitch: Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox, 4-Seam Fastball

Best Repertoire: Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

Biggest Surprise: Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds, Changeup

This list is almost all household names. In first and second, we have the AL Cy Young frontrunners. Jeff Sullivan recently wrote an article about Kluber’s curveball, and how it may be the best pitch in baseball. It isn’t number one here, but second place is not too shabby. His cutter also appears here, so his dominance is not hard to explain. Sonny Gray’s stuff is well known, and he shows up twice on this table, but his numbers are not spectacular this year. Lastly, watch out for Castillo. He’s a no-name rook, but he has been solid for the Reds, and the ranking of his changeup may be the evidence to support his success.

Next up is relievers.