Pitch Win Values for Starting Pitchers – June 2014

Introduction

A couple months back, I introduced a new method of calculating pitch values using a FIP-based WAR methodology.  That post details the basic framework of these calculations and  can be found here.  The May update can be found here.  This post is simply the June 2014 update of the same data.  What follows is predominantly data-heavy but should still provide useful talking points for discussion.  Let’s dive in and see what we can find.  Please note that the same caveats apply as previous months.  We’re at the mercy of pitch classification.  I’m sure your favorite pitcher doesn’t throw that pitch that has been rated as incredibly below average, but we have to go off of the data that is available.  Also, Baseball Prospectus’s PitchF/x leaderboards list only nine pitches (Four-Seam Fastball, Sinker, Cutter, Splitter, Curveball, Slider, Changeup, Screwball, and Knuckleball).  Anything that may be classified outside of these categories is not included.  Also, anything classified as a “slow curve” is not included in Baseball Prospectus’s curveball data.

Constants

Before we begin, we must first update the constants used in calculation for June.  As a refresher, we need three different constants for calculation: strikes per strikeout, balls per walk, and a FIP constant to bring the values onto the right scale.  We will tackle them each individually.

First, let’s discuss the strikeout constant.  In June, there were 50,861 strikes thrown by starting pitchers.  Of these 50,861 strikes, 4,837 were turned into hits and 14,888 outs were recorded.  Of these 14,888 outs, 3,981 were converted via the strikeout, leaving us with 10,907 ball-in-play outs.  10,907 ball-in-play strikes and 4,837 hits sum to 15,744 balls-in-play.  Subtracting 15,744 balls-in-play from our original 50,861 strikes leaves us with 35,117 strikes to distribute over our 3,981 strikeouts.  That’s a ratio of 8.82 strikes per strikeout.  This is down from 8.88 strikes per strikeout in May.  Hitters were slightly easier to strikeout in June than they were in May.

The next two constants are much easier to ascertain.  In June, there were 28,442 balls thrown by starters and 1,469 walked batters.  That’s a ratio of 19.36 balls per walk, up from 18.77 balls per walk in May.  This data would suggest that hitters were slightly less likely to walk in June than previously.  The FIP subtotal for all pitches in June was 0.57.  The MLB Run Average for June was 4.16, meaning our FIP constant for May is 3.59.

Constant	Value
Strikes/K	8.82
Balls/BB	19.36
cFIP	3.59

The following table details how the constants have changed month-to-month.

Month	K	BB	cFIP
March/April	8.47	18.50	3.68
May	8.88	18.77	3.58
June	8.82	19.36	3.59

Pitch Values – June 2014

For reference, the following table details the FIP for each pitch type in the month of June.

Pitch	FIP
Four-Seam	4.16
Sinker	4.14
Cutter	4.00
Splitter	4.43
Curveball	3.98
Slider	4.03
Changeup	4.64
Screwball	3.24
Knuckleball	6.30
MLB RA	4.16

As we can see, only three pitches would be classified as below average for the month of June: splitters, changeups, and knuckleballs.  Four-Seam Fastballs and Sinkers also came in right around league average.  Pitchers that were able to stand out in these categories tended to have better overall months than pitchers who excelled at the other pitches.  Now, let’s proceed to the data for the month of June.

Four-Seam Fastball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Jordan Zimmermann	0.8	171	Marco Estrada	-0.3
2	Brandon Cumpton	0.6	172	Masahiro Tanaka	-0.3
3	Clayton Kershaw	0.6	173	Juan Nicasio	-0.3
4	Matt Garza	0.5	174	Edwin Jackson	-0.3
5	Nathan Eovaldi	0.5	175	Nick Martinez	-0.3

Sinker

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Tanner Roark	0.5	160	Wei-Yin Chen	-0.2
2	Chris Archer	0.5	161	Andrew Heaney	-0.2
3	Charlie Morton	0.5	162	Jake Peavy	-0.2
4	Alfredo Simon	0.4	163	Jered Weaver	-0.2
5	Brandon McCarthy	0.4	164	Dan Haren	-0.4

Cutter

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Jarred Cosart	0.6	73	Chris Tillman	-0.1
2	Madison Bumgarner	0.4	74	Brandon McCarthy	-0.1
3	Corey Kluber	0.3	75	Mike Minor	-0.1
4	Adam Wainwright	0.3	76	Brad Mills	-0.1
5	Josh Collmenter	0.3	77	Scott Feldman	-0.2

Splitter

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Alex Cobb	0.3	26	Tim Hudson	-0.1
2	Masahiro Tanaka	0.3	27	Charlie Morton	-0.1
3	Tim Lincecum	0.2	28	Jake Peavy	-0.1
4	Kyle Kendrick	0.2	29	Ubaldo Jimenez	-0.2
5	Alfredo Simon	0.2	30	Miguel Gonzalez	-0.3

Curveball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Jered Weaver	0.2	150	Vance Worley	-0.1
2	Edinson Volquez	0.2	151	Christian Bergman	-0.1
3	Roenis Elias	0.2	152	Alfredo Simon	-0.2
4	Collin McHugh	0.2	153	Marcus Stroman	-0.2
5	A.J. Burnett	0.2	154	David Price	-0.3

Slider

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Garrett Richards	0.4	113	Aaron Harang	-0.2
2	Ervin Santana	0.4	114	Wily Peralta	-0.2
3	Chris Archer	0.3	115	Wei-Yin Chen	-0.2
4	Homer Bailey	0.3	116	Juan Nicasio	-0.2
5	Tyson Ross	0.3	117	Vidal Nuno	-0.3

Changeup

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Felix Hernandez	0.3	154	Ervin Santana	-0.2
2	Jeff Locke	0.3	155	Mark Buehrle	-0.2
3	Henderson Alvarez	0.3	156	David Buchanan	-0.3
4	Jeremy Guthrie	0.2	157	Hyun-Jin Ryu	-0.3
5	Jason Vargas	0.2	158	Scott Kazmir	-0.3

Screwball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Trevor Bauer	0.0

Knuckleball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	C.J. Wilson	0.0
2	R.A. Dickey	-0.4

Overall

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Jordan Zimmermann	1.0	177	Dan Haren	-0.4
2	Felix Hernandez	1.0	178	Miguel Gonzalez	-0.4
3	Chris Archer	0.9	179	Joe Saunders	-0.4
4	Clayton Kershaw	0.9	180	Juan Nicasio	-0.5
5	Matt Garza	0.9	181	R.A. Dickey	-0.6

Pitch Ratings – June 2014

Four-Seam Fastball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	Drew Smyly	60	80	Samuel Deduno	36
2	Drew Hutchison	59	81	Wade Miley	34
3	Matt Garza	59	82	Nick Martinez	34
4	Hector Santiago	59	83	Tony Cingrani	33
5	J.A. Happ	59	84	Ricky Nolasco	33

Sinker

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	J.A. Happ	61	62	Andrew Heaney	38
2	Jeff Samardzija	59	63	Jered Weaver	38
3	Jake Arrieta	59	64	Tommy Milone	35
4	Jesse Hahn	58	65	Jake Peavy	32
5	Felix Hernandez	58	66	Dan Haren	24

Cutter

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	David Price	59	28	Brandon Workman	46
2	Corey Kluber	59	29	Mike Bolsinger	44
3	Jarred Cosart	57	30	Scott Feldman	40
4	Mike Leake	57	31	Dan Haren	39
5	Phil Hughes	57	32	Mike Minor	34

Splitter

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	Masahiro Tanaka	59	12	Dan Haren	42
2	Doug Fister	58	13	Wei-Yin Chen	40
3	Kevin Gausman	58	14	Jake Odorizzi	40
4	Alfredo Simon	58	15	Tim Hudson	36
5	Alex Cobb	57	16	Ubaldo Jimenez	25

Curveball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	Stephen Strasburg	60	63	David Phelps	42
2	Erik Bedard	59	64	Aaron Harang	38
3	Drew Pomeranz	59	65	Alfredo Simon	34
4	Collin McHugh	59	66	Marcus Stroman	28
5	Josh Tomlin	58	67	David Price	20

Slider

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	Jeff Samardzija	62	50	Zack Greinke	37
2	Max Scherzer	60	51	Matt Cain	32
3	Tanner Roark	59	52	Wei-Yin Chen	30
4	Vance Worley	59	53	Aaron Harang	29
5	Jhoulys Chacin	59	54	Vidal Nuno	27

Changeup

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	Gio Gonzalez	61	58	Scott Kazmir	24
2	Jeff Locke	59	59	Drew Hutchison	22
3	Jeremy Guthrie	58	60	Ervin Santana	22
4	Josh Collmenter	58	61	T.J. House	22
5	Sonny Gray	58	62	Hyun-Jin Ryu	20

Screwball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	Trevor Bauer	54

Knuckleball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	R.A. Dickey	41

Monthly Discussion

As we can see, Jordan Zimmermann takes the top for this month most due to the  quality of his Four-Seam Fastball.  Zimmermann was classified as throwing five different pitches in June (Four-Seam, Sinker, Curveball, Slider, and Changeup) and managed to earn at least 0.1 WAR from the Four-Seam, Curveball, and Slider.  The most valuable pitch overall in June was Zimmermann’s Four-Seam Fastball.  The least valuable was R.A. Dickey’s Knuckleball.  As far as offspeed pitches, Garrett Richards’s 0.4 WAR from his slider lead the way.  The least valuable fastball was Dan Haren’s sinker.

On our 20-80 scale pitch ratings, the highest rated qualifying pitch was Jeff Samardzija’s slider.  Somewhat surprisingly, the lowest rated was David Price’s curveball.  The highest rated fastball was J.A. Happ’s sinker, and the lowest rated fastball was Dan Haren’s sinker.

Pitch Values – 2014 Season

Four-Seam Fastball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Jordan Zimmermann	1.5	228	Nick Martinez	-0.3
2	Phil Hughes	1.3	229	Dan Straily	-0.4
3	Ian Kennedy	1.3	230	Doug Fister	-0.4
4	Michael Wacha	1.2	231	Juan Nicasio	-0.4
5	Jose Quintana	1.2	232	Marco Estrada	-0.6

Sinker

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Charlie Morton	1.4	216	Vidal Nuno	-0.3
2	Felix Hernandez	1.2	217	Dan Straily	-0.3
3	Chris Archer	1.1	218	Jake Peavy	-0.3
4	Cliff Lee	1.0	219	Erasmo Ramirez	-0.3
5	Justin Masterson	1.0	220	Wandy Rodriguez	-0.3

Cutter

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Madison Bumgarner	1.2	102	Cliff Lee	-0.2
2	Corey Kluber	1.0	103	Felipe Paulino	-0.3
3	Adam Wainwright	1.0	104	Johnny Cueto	-0.3
4	Jarred Cosart	0.9	105	C.J. Wilson	-0.3
5	Josh Collmenter	0.7	106	Brandon McCarthy	-0.3

Splitter

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Masahiro Tanaka	0.7	32	Charlie Morton	-0.2
2	Alex Cobb	0.4	33	Franklin Morales	-0.2
3	Tim Lincecum	0.4	34	Clay Buchholz	-0.2
4	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.3	35	Danny Salazar	-0.3
5	Hiroki Kuroda	0.3	36	Miguel Gonzalez	-0.3

Curveball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Sonny Gray	0.8	197	J.A. Happ	-0.2
2	A.J. Burnett	0.7	198	Erasmo Ramirez	-0.2
3	Jose Fernandez	0.6	199	David Price	-0.2
4	Brandon McCarthy	0.6	200	Franklin Morales	-0.2
5	Stephen Strasburg	0.5	201	Felipe Paulino	-0.3

Slider

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Garrett Richards	0.8	159	Jered Weaver	-0.2
2	Tyson Ross	0.6	160	Liam Hendriks	-0.2
3	Jason Hammel	0.6	161	Travis Wood	-0.3
4	Ervin Santana	0.6	162	Erasmo Ramirez	-0.3
5	Corey Kluber	0.6	163	Danny Salazar	-0.4

Changeup

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Felix Hernandez	0.7	211	Jordan Zimmermann	-0.3
2	Henderson Alvarez	0.6	212	Tony Cingrani	-0.3
3	Stephen Strasburg	0.6	213	Matt Cain	-0.3
4	Francisco Liriano	0.5	214	Wandy Rodriguez	-0.4
5	John Danks	0.5	215	Marco Estrada	-0.6

Screwball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Trevor Bauer	0.0
2	Alfredo Simon	0.0
3	Hector Santiago	0.0

Knuckleball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	R.A. Dickey	0.7
2	C.J. Wilson	0.0

Overall

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Felix Hernandez	2.8	235	Dan Straily	-0.4
2	Adam Wainwright	2.5	236	Felipe Paulino	-0.5
3	Chris Archer	2.1	237	Juan Nicasio	-0.5
4	Corey Kluber	2.1	238	Wandy Rodriguez	-0.8
5	Garrett Richards	2.1	239	Marco Estrada	-1.0

Year-to-Date Discussion

If we look at the year-to-date numbers, MLB FIP and WAR leader Felix Hernandez still sits in the top spot.  Current NL FIP leader Adam Wainwright ranks second.  The least valuable starter has been Marco Estrada.  On a per-pitch basis, the most valuable pitch has been Jordan Zimmermann’s four-seam fastball.  The most valuable offspeed pitch has been Garrett Richards’s slider.  The least valuable pitch has been Marco Estrada’s four-seam fastball.  The least value offspeed pitch has been Marco Estrada’s changeup.  Needless to say, it’s been a rough year for Marco.  Qualitatively, I feel fairly encouraged by the year-to-date results so far.  The leaderboard is topped by two no-doubt aces, both of whom currently their respective leagues in FIP, and Marco Estrada comes in at the bottom after posting the highest FIP among qualified starters so far.  For reference, the top five in the year-to-date overall rankings are currently 1st, 6th, 23rd, 3rd, and 7th on the FanGraphs WAR leaderboards respectively.