This is part three of a three-part series detailing a method of judging pitch framing based on the prior probability of the pitch being called a strike.  In part 1, we motivated the method.  In part 2, we formalized it. Here in part 3, we look at the hitter’s effect on ball and strike calls.

The formula we’ve been using for judging catcher framing is the very simple

IsCalledStrike - prob(CalledStrike)

where IsCalledStrike is simply 1 if the pitch is called a strike, and 0 otherwise.  The second term is the probability that the pitch would have been called a strike, absent any information about any given party’s involvement. We add up these values for every called ball or strike that a catcher receives, and report the resulting number.  In this article we could go ahead and do this for all catchers over the past two years, except (a) Matthew Carruth is already doing this exact thing and (b) I can’t figure out how to match Retrosheet data to my Pitch F/X data to get catcher information anyway.  So instead we’ll look at hitter involvement.  How much can a hitter influence whether a pitch is called a ball or strike?

Read the rest of this entry »

Who is  Jose Dariel Abreu?

The 2013 White Sox were bereft of offense and GM Ken Williams looked this offseason to add top offensive talent without breaking the bank too much. Also, since the team is rebuilding, they wanted to add a player that was younger. Jose Dariel Abreu hit on all of those criteria and the White Sox are looking towards Abreu to have the same impact as Cuban hitting stars Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig.

The massive Abreu has been a power threat in Cuba since he broke into the Serie Nacional at 21. He has been a force since 2010; three times going over 30 home runs in a shorter Cuban season and has exhibited a very good eye. There are a lot of comparisons to Ryan Howard because of his 6’2 260 build and that comparison is a very apt one. Howard walked a good amount and hit for a lot of power, but also struck out a lot, something that Abreu will probably be a victim of as well. That is why it would be smart if the White Sox find some way to construct the lineup as to not have Abreu and Dunn directly next to each other as there would be two strikeout threats in a row.

On the other hand, like with Howard and Dunn, Abreu has elite power. The White Sox would love to see that kind of power in the lineup, as Abreu will be tasked to take the offensive load that was once given to Paul Konerko. He is very raw, but against top talent in the World Baseball Classic, Abreu was very good in 2013, with three home runs and a .360 batting average. Abreu is not your typical rookie at 27 so the White Sox should be ready to plug him in at first base and he should be very successful. A .270 average with 25 home runs is a good starting point for Abreu, with a good chance that he is closer to 30 or 35 home runs. For a team that was offensively lackluster and devoid of power last year, the White Sox would be thrilled with those numbers from the big Cuban Abreu.

When do the White Sox make a move to get some starting pitching?

The White Sox had veteran, yet shaky, starting pitching last year and that did not work out for them as well as they hoped, as they were a statistically average pitching staff. For the 2014 season, the White Sox are taking another angle and trying to go a bit younger with the pitching staff to see if there is depth in the lower parts of the organization. The White Sox already have an excellent starting pitcher in Chris Sale, but if they are going to compete in the American League, they really need to find at least one more starter that they can really trust.

There are not a lot of good pieces for the White Sox to trade and there is not much in the minor leagues for the White Sox to develop, so the White Sox may need to get creative in the way that they find more pitching. Chris Sale is a true ace and Jose Quintana has looked good in his time in the major leagues, but John Danks’ injuries and a lack of development from such pitchers as Charlie Leesman has left the White Sox with Felipe Paulino and Erik Johnson at the back of the rotation. Johnson is a building piece for the future and may be the best player to come out of the improving White Sox farm system, but Paulino is just an arm to throw out there every five days and should not be relied upon for major contributions. The White Sox should start in their minor leagues to find guys to add to the rotation and two guys that should get the first look are Eric Surkamp and Nestor Molina.

Eric Surkamp was a sixth round pick in the 2008 by the Giants out of NC State and was successful coming up through the system for the Giants, posting a 2.73 ERA in 467 1/3 innings between High-A and Triple-A. After a 2011 where Surkamp had a sub-2 ERA between High-A San Jose and Double-A Richmond, he had some elbow troubles, resulting in Tommy John surgery. Before the surgery, Surkamp posted a K/9 of 10.6 and between Triple A and the majors this year; his K/9 was 6.6. Surkamp was already not in the favor of the Giants as he struggled with the strike zone in a brief audition in 2011 and after getting injured in 2012 and not regaining his sharpness in 2013, the Giants cut him loose for the White Sox to sign.

Unfortunately for Surkamp, his first appearance with the White Sox in Spring Training was not good, as he allowed 5 hits and 3 runs in 2 innings of work. The White Sox need to send him back down to Charlotte this season and allow him to regain some of his sharpness before they give him a chance in the majors. The Giants have had a very good track record of promoting young pitchers that have shown success in the minor leagues and they may have rushed Surkamp a bit considering that success. A change of scenery and more of a focus on the process than results will be critical for Surkamp to regain the success that he had in the past.

Nestor Molina was received by the White Sox in the Sergio Santos and in his two years in the White Sox system has been a bit hit or miss. Originally a super utility player in the Twins and Blue Jays systems, Molina moved to pitcher for good in 2008 and was a good reliever in 2008, 2009, and 2010 when in 2011 he moved to being a starter. He tore up the Florida State League with Dunedin and the Eastern League with New Hampshire, accumulating a 2.21 ERA between the two leagues with a sub-1 WHIP and more than 10 K/9. When the Blue Jays looked to add a bullpen arm, the White Sox asked for the hot Molina. He was only decent in his 2012 season with the White Sox after coming in as one of the top White Sox prospects for the season and had a bit of a lost season in 2013, as lingering shoulder issues led to only 36 1/3 innings.

Looking for a better start at 25, Molina should also get a chance in the Charlotte rotation and needs to play up his decent stuff. He is not able to blow batters away and he gets by more with guile and craftiness than skill; Molina needs to play that up as he did in his developmental years. His ERA was a run worse than his FIP over the past two years in the White Sox system which shows that he needs to cut down on his balls in play. The quick analysis would say that Molina minimized his walks and struck out many more batters while in the Blue Jays organization and he needs to get back to that. He needs to get that elite control that he displayed in 2011 and that will improve his results by leaps and bounds.

There may be a chance for the White Sox to have a solid rotation with Molina and Surkamp at the back end, but each have their own issues that they need to fix in the minor leagues first.

How did the White Sox fix their minor leagues?

Amongst all of the issues with the White Sox, there is one good thing: the minor league system was pretty good last year and there are now a couple minor league prospects that may be on the way to Chicago. Coming into the 2013 season, the White Sox had one of the worst farm systems and there were very little, if any players, who would make it to the majors. The system is not going to be a top system going into 2014, but there were some good things that happened during the 2013 season that have made people more bearish on the White Sox minor league system.

In the draft the White Sox addressed a lot of their biggest issues and will be better for it in the long run. As reported earlier, the White Sox do not have a lot of upper level pitching talent, so the White Sox drafted eleven pitchers in the first 20 rounds with a good mix of high school, junior college, and college talent. With the 17th pick of the first round, the team selected shortstop Tim Anderson out of junior college to take over for Alexi Ramirez. Anderson signed right away and was aggressively placed in the South Atlantic League- this will be discussed a bit later. Second round pick Tyler Danish also made it to Kannapolis last year, a good sign for the White Sox that their top picks were able to get into full season minor league baseball in their introductory seasons.

Kannapolis had some very strong prospects last year, a true indicator that Chicago may have a brighter future. As alluded to earlier, Tim Anderson was drafted and sent to Kannapolis, where he had an OBP of nearly .350 and had 5 triples while stealing 24 bases at a 86% success rate. Anderson’s season in the South Atlantic League was great but Micah Johnson was even better. An SAL All-Star at second base, Johnson stole 61 bases in 77 games with a .422 OBP and 11 triples; he made it all the way up to Double-A Birmingham for a bit at the end of the season, maintaining his speed at every level. It is quite easy to see the White Sox imagining Anderson and Johnson in the middle of their infield and top of their lineup for the future. There were some other impressive performances by some other White Sox hitters in Low-A as well, as Jason Coats had 38 doubles and Michael Johnson had a .388 OBP. A couple pitchers were also solid for the 2013 Intimidators as they had four starting pitchers — Mike Recchia, Jake Cose, Myles Jaye, and Tony Buccifero — that had sub-2.50 ERAs in their stints in the South Atlantic league. Stew Brase was solid out of the bullpen as well with a 2.13 ERA.

Winston Salem had an interesting year for developing prospects. Four of the five pitchers that were mentioned above spent varying amounts of time in Winston Salem and they were not nearly as successful; the quartet of Recchia, Jaye, Cose, and Brase had a 4.25 ERA in 256 1/3 innings in High-A. The big pitching prospect in Winston Salem was former second round pick Chris Beck, who had a 3.11 ERA in the Carolina League before he was promoted to Birmingham for the end of the season. The ERA was solid but Beck did not have a good K: BB ratio (1.36) or a good WHIP (1.34); fortunately he was a bit better in Birmingham to finish up the season, but Beck’s low strikeout rate is a bit alarming.

There were two big hitting prospects in Winston Salem and each had odd seasons. Rangel Ravelo was a Low-A all-star in 2012 and started the season there in 2013, struggling through his first 17 games. After that, Ravelo was moved up to Winston Salem and put together a solid season with a .312 average and nearly as many walks (40) as strikeouts (46); a tall and projectable frame might make the 22 year old Ravelo the biggest player to watch in the White Sox organization.

The other big prospect in Winston Salem, in fact the biggest prospect in the system, was 2012 first round pick, outfielder Courtney Hawkins. There were good things that Hawkins did, like having 19 home runs and 10 steals while playing a good centerfield, but there were a couple of things holding the 19 year old athlete back. The two huge issues for Hawkins were the .178 batting average and 160 strikeouts in only 425 plate appearances. There is not a good history for players that have a 37.6% strikeout rate and a 6.8% walk rate — unless they are hitting 45 home runs — but Hawkins was aggressively moved to High-A as an 18 year old in 2012 and the White Sox gave him a full season there at 19 when a lot of his fellow draftees were either in Rookie ball or Low-A. Hawkins should start the season in Double-A, but because he is so young, if he struggles he will not lose any development by moving back to Winston Salem.

Birmingham was the Southern League champions in 2013 and there were a lot of very interesting prospects there. The aforementioned Micah Johnson and Chris Beck were very solid for the team and showed that they could deal with upper level talent. Beck struggled at times in Winston Salem and it was a good thing coming into 2014 that he had a good end to the season in Double-A. Johnson had such success in A-ball that it was great that he was able to get in Double-A and show that his numbers were not a fluke.

There were a couple of players that were very successful for Birmingham because they were a bit too old for the league but they could provide organizational depth. David Cales had a 1.82 ERA in 24.2 innings pitched while in Birmingham; Dan Black had a .881 OPS and 91:98 walk to strikeout ratio; Jake Petricka had a 2.06 ERA in 39.1 innings (which he bested in Charlotte with a 1.17 ERA); and Taylor Thompson was solid in the bullpen with a 2.15 ERA and a 8.2 K/9 (although he was hit very hard in Charlotte).

There were two players in Birmingham that were prospects coming in that fulfilled their expectations and another that developed into being a prospect. Chris Bassitt was a pretty good pitcher in A-ball, but while in Double-A he cut his walks by a bit, worked a bit deeper into the game, and lowered his ERA to 2.27. Erik Johnson came into the Southern League as a big time prospect but no one expected that he would have the season that he did in 2013. After ringing up a 2.23 ERA in Birmingham, Johnson turned it up in Charlotte with a 1.57 ERA. A sub 2 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP with 8.3 K/9 during the 2013 should make Johnson a part of the 2014 White Sox rotation. The Sox hope that Johnson is able to take a place next to Chris Sale at the top of the big league rotation. Marcus Semien played in three different levels in 2013 and there was a reason that he made it to the majors. Semien is a do everything type of player; he plays second, third, and short and hit .290 with more walks (84) than strikeouts (66) and 15 home runs and 20 steals. Semien should also be a part of the 2014 White Sox, using that versatility to fill in for Gordon Beckham, Alexi Ramirez, or Matt Davidson.

For everything good that happened in Birmingham, though, Trayce Thompson disappointed a bit. Thompson was supposed to be the big draw for the Barons, particularly considering that he finished 2012 in Charlotte after having a .899 OPS in Birmingham in 14 games, but he only had a .704 OPS for the season and struck out 139 times. He did have 15 home runs and 25 steals, but his stock may have cooled a bit given his relatively weak season.

Since there was not a lot of upper level talent in the Chicago system, Charlotte did not really have any big prospects other than those that were promoted from Birmingham. Carlos Sanchez is not a horrible prospect, but a .241 average in Charlotte and only 16 steals may have slowed a bit of expectations on Sanchez. He did have a solid winter ball appearance in Venezuela and hopefully he can build on that in 2014.

There is still a long way for the White Sox to go in developing a good farm system but there were some things that happened in 2013 that show that help is coming.

What will the White Sox do about their bullpen?

For the past couple seasons the White Sox have struggled and they have been changing up their bullpen frequently. (In fact, one may say that because the White Sox have been changing up their bullpen frequently, they have struggled.) Coming into 2014, there are a lot questions since the team traded away young and mostly reliable closer Addison Reed and starter Hector Santiago to the Diamondbacks for Matt Davidson and Adam Eaton. For the whole scope of the team, this was a great move as Davidson and Eaton should be solid pillars for the future, but the bullpen is now left without a closer. Through a couple of trades and veteran free agent signings, the team has put together what constitutes a makeshift group. When you look through major and minor league bullpens, the one thing that usually survives is hard throwing pitchers; the White Sox have embraced this and have bred very hard throwing pitchers. The next two “young guns” for the White Sox are Nate Jones and Daniel Webb.

Daniel Webb was picked up by the White Sox in the trade that sent Jason Frasor to Toronto in early 2012 and, after a rough 2012 with Kannapolis in the South Atlantic League, Webb quickly rose from High-A to the major leagues in 2013 with a 2.07 ERA and 10.7 K/9. Once in the majors, Webb flashed a fastball that averaged 96 mph and a slider and changeup that played very well off of his hard fastball. He has had some issues with walks thus far during his young career and those need to be fixed before he is able to sustain that success for a long time. He did a good job of not becoming too reliant on his fastball and that needs to continue as he grows. Although he is not currently listed on the White Sox depth chart, it would be a shock if Webb does not break camp with the team and should be the set man by the middle of the season. There have actually been some that say that he will take over at closer for the next player to be analyzed.

Nate Jones alternated between starting and relieving in the minor leagues before he came up to the majors in 2012 as a reliever. His rookie year was a huge success; in 71 innings, Jones had a 2.39 and featured a 98 mph fastball that was electric. This past season, Jones had a mixed bag of a season. He struck out two more batters per nine, walked one less per nine, cut his WHIP 17 points, and, even though he only allowed 2 more hits, saw his ERA jump to 4.15. The answer to why his numbers looked better but he allowed more runs is quite simple: batters had an .879 OPS with runners in scoring position against Jones. Also, there was a 1.51 difference between his FIP and his ERA in 2013; showing that Jones needs to finish off hitters when runners are in scoring position. If Jones is able to keep advancing in his control and becoming more of a strikeout pitcher there will be fewer runners in scoring position. This is easier said than done but Jones had a lot of good indicators of progress last year and he could be a breakout player for the White Sox this year.

Why are the White Sox going to win 70 games?

The White Sox are in a bad place but they are getting better. The minor league system for the White Sox was disastrous and there was not much young talent on the team. The emerging Chris Sale along with Jose Dariel Abreu and Matt Davidson do provide the White Sox young talent. The minor league system thrived last year and there are a couple players like Micah Johnson and Erik Johnson that could be nice producers for the White Sox in the future. This year may not be the team of 2014, but there are some opportunities for the future. The unfortunate thing for the White Sox is that the division is strong and will even get stronger so the White Sox need to make sure that their young players continue to develop.

5 You Know:

1. Chris Sale

2. Jose Quintana

3. Adam Dunn

4. Alejandro De Aza

5. Alexi Ramirez

5 You Will Know:

1. Erik Johnson

2. Matt Davidson

3. Jose Dariel Abreu

4. Marcus Seimen

5. Micah Johnson

5 You Should Remember:

1. Courtney Hawkins

2. Tim Anderson

3. Trayce Thompson

4. Chris Beck

5. Tyler Danish

Twenty-two players have hit 150 home runs or more by the age of 25 (Per baseball reference, the last season included is when a player is no older than 25 on June 30^th of that season).  The list below is a who’s who of players that hit for power at a young age. You’ll notice a large number of active players have accomplished this feat, and that 10 of the 17 retired players are in the Hall of Fame.

A few more active players look like they are about to join the club

Three favorites are Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. According to the Oliver five year projection system, each of these players will reach over 150 home runs by the end of his age 25 season.

This chart shows each player’s current home run totals, the seasons played through so far, the number of additional home runs Oliver projects through the 25 season, the projected total runs by the age of 25 (Career HR + Oliver projected), and finally what each player would need to average to hit 150 runs by the age of 25. This last measure is interesting because it gives you an idea of what level each player would need to fall below to miss the mark.

Minor league players might knock out A-Rod for #1

Miguel Sano, Joey Gallo and Javier Baez make up a trio of minor leaguers who Oliver believes could also make the list.  Not only does Oliver project these three players will to fly past 150 home runs, he predicts Sano and Gallo could pass A-Rod for the most home runs by age 25.

*the Gallo projections are only through his age 24 season so if he kept up the home run pace he would be in the 270s at the age of 25

While Sano, Gallo and Baez have a high number of projected home runs, they also have a high number of projected strikeouts. Adam Dunn shows that you can be very successful as a player who strikes out & hits home runs frequently. But the three minor league players could be even more extreme. Dunn struck out 26% of the time and homered 5.7% of the time through his age 25 season.  The minor league trio are predicted to strike out between 32 and 43% of the time and homer between 7 and 8% of the time. Could these three players redefine the all or nothing hitter, or are they somehow breaking projection systems?

Reasons to be skeptical

The Oliver model is complex and would take a long time to completely dissect, but from what I can tell it has the following limitations (these limitations are intentional because they add other value to the projections system):

#1 The Assumption of Games – Oliver projections assume a player gets 600 major-league plate appearances every year. This is not necessarily a given because top minor league players will likely spend part of a season in the minors before moving up to the majors, or in Sano’s case miss games rehabbing an injury.

#2 Inherent Uncertainty –  First, projections based off minor league numbers have more uncertainty than those based off major league numbers. Second, each additional year projected in the future adds more uncertainty because each year you go out you are guessing what happened the previous year – vs. knowing what happened the previous year. Compounded, these two stated effects create a good deal of inherent uncertainty.

So, what does this all mean?

If the projections are anywhere close to correct, it looks like we are going to see a new breed of power hitter in the major league soon. Although the projections are far from foregone conclusions, it’s another great reason why we watch the game of baseball.

As we’ve all seen, the debate surrounding what to do with Noah Syndergaard has been the hot story of the spring in New York thus far, thanks in part to last year’s results, his elite pedigree, and sterling debut against the Braves. It appears as though there are two primary factors that make optioning Thor to Triple A a virtual lock. The first being that the team wants to manage his workload. The second being that the team stands to benefit by manipulating his service time. A third factor would be the Mets’ current place on the win curve.

Last year, Syndergaard threw 117 innings at the minor league level. Assuming the team follows the same blueprint they used for managing Harvey and Wheeler’s workload, it’s safe to assume the plan for Thor is as follows: Call him up mid-season and increase his innings pitched  by 30, up to around 150; add another 30 IP next year, limiting him to 180 and skipping starts here and there or shutting him down in September if necessary; and finally lifting the restrictions for 2016 altogether. Working with a cap of 150 IP presents a lot of logistical hurdles at the Major League level, since it would require a late season shutdown or multiple skipped starts. Since winning takes a backseat to development in minors, it’s reasonable to suggest that limiting Thor’s innings in the first half will be a lot easier in the minors where skipping starts or pulling him early games have limited repercussions.

Next comes the service time issue, where for financial reasons, the team would stand to benefit by preventing Thor from earning Super Two status. It ensures that he will be making around the league minimum in 2016 rather than millions through arbitration. There is also an underlying factor in that the if Thor does prove to be a superstar, his agent stands to gain more and more leverage in negotiating a long term deal the closer Thor gets to free agency. Lastly, if it you’re going to limit his innings to 150, then it makes perfect sense to recall him later in the year because the alternative would mean that he’d accumulating service time while being shut down and not pitching in parts of August and all of September.

All told, it seems that starting him in the minors is the logical choice. The argument against this line of reasoning basically boils down to the desire fielding the best team possible. On paper, at least, the Mets don’t project to be a playoff contender this year. So the question then becomes whether or not the 15 – 18 or so starts made by, say Dice-K, instead of Syndergaard could ultimately be the difference in making the playoffs. Even the most optimistic projection of Thor, along with the most pessimistic projection of Dice-K, would suggest only a gain of a win or two by going with Thor. Not to mention that again, we’re probably looking at someone filling in for the Thor in September if he starts with the big team in April.

So case closed huh? Well not so fast. There is an alternative that addresses two of the factors against Thor being on the opening day roster and I conveniently ruined the surprise by making it the title of this post. So should the Mets go with a six-man rotation? I really believe the answer is a resounding yes as the positives far outweigh the negatives. I’ll begin by diving into the benefits that each member of the rotation would gain.

The Rotation Locks

Bartolo Colon – He’s old. In fact, he’s basically ancient by starting pitcher standards. His body looks like a mound of mashed potatoes with arms, legs and a head attached to it. Last year he seemed to run out of gas by the end of the year, so much so that he was passed over by the A’s during the playoffs. There’s also the injury factor, where according to Jeff Zimmerman, Colon is the most likely DL candidate in the entire sport for 2014. So it’s pretty reasonable to expect something well below 200 innings out of Colon, with diminishing returns for all innings beyond the 150 mark. Also to add some anecdotal evidence, older pitchers seem to thrive with an extra day of rest. Of note is Pedro Martinez, who while with the Mets, always stated that he felt stronger with the extra day and the his numbers backed up the claim. Colon would seem to benefit the most.

Zack Wheeler – Just as they were attempting to do with Harvey before he went down, the Mets figure to limit Wheeler’s innings total. Between Vegas and Queens, Wheeler threw 168 innings last year, meaning the team would probably like to limit him to somewhere around 190 – 200 innings this year. A six-man rotation would all but ensure that he stays within that threshold, even if he takes that leap to ace status and is consistently pitching deep into games.

Jon Niese – Injuries limited the left-hander to 143 innings over 24 starts. The six-man rotation figures to allow Niese to settle back into the rotation without the pressure of having him throw over 200 innings or make 30+ starts coming off of a shoulder injury.

Dillon Gee –  He’s the only guy that doesn’t have the durability concerns (199 IP last year) and  workload limitations (like Wheeler). He had 3.62 ERA last year and was brilliant in his last 20+ starts.

The Other Guys

Dice K/Lannan – Basically, we’re looking at addition by subtraction. Instead of seeing the team’s worst pitcher make 30 –  32 starts, in a six-man setup, those guys will only make 20 – 22 starts. That leads to spreading the other ten starts amongst the other five superior pitchers. Dice-K, in particular, as guy who runs up high pitch counts and struggles to go deep into games could probably pushed a little bit more with an extra day of rest. In other words, more 120 pitch/six inning starts as opposed to pulling him after five innings/100 pitches.

Jenrry Mejia –  While he was electric when he got the call last year, he got hurt again after just a few starts. Durability is an obvious concern and he’s clearly behind Dice-K and Lannan, who are the frontrunners for the fifth spot in the rotation. Terry Collins has even stated that a return to the bullpen is a very real possibility.

Rafael Montero – Same boat as Syndergaard with regard to service time and workload issues.

The Bullpen – Ostensibly, an extra day of rest for the starters mean they can go deeper into games preventing Collins from overworking his bullpen. Or in some cases, prevent downright abuse (see Scott “Every Minute” Rice).

What it Would Mean For Syndergaard

As stated above, the six-man rotation quells two of the main concerns. Limiting his innings would be a snap in a six-man rotation. It would eliminate the need to pull him early in starts. It would lessen the need for the team to skip his spot in the rotation which would lessen the need to either shuttle guys up and down between Vegas and the big leagues or pitch the other guys on short rest. If Syndergaard continues to dominate this Spring and prove that he’s ready for The Show, it allows the team field a better roster by having his dynamic arm contribute to this year’s team. It allows him to get his feet wet earlier and could better prepare him to pitch like a stud in 2015. For once, the team would be making a fan friendly move that will no doubt excite masses.

The Negative(s)

The only glaring negative is the service time issue by putting Syndergaard on track earn Super Two status. There’s also intangible issues. Pitchers, and athletes in general for that matter,  are said to be “creatures of habit” and pitching every 6th day may throw some of the team’s starters out of whack. While it could benefit an older guy like Colon, it could be detrimental to a guy like Gee who relies more on control and command than he does pure stuff.

The Verdict

I think the positives far outweigh the negatives. As of this writing, the Mets rank 23rd in payroll at around $82M. The team has only $54M committed to four players for 2015. I just don’t see how allowing Syndergaard to get a crack at arbitration a year early is going to damage the team’s future payroll flexibility by all that much. Teams usually don’t consider a six-man rotation because few teams have five good starters, much less six. For the Mets, it’s the opposite as a six-man rotation would be playing to their biggest strength,  starting pitching depth. They’d still have Montero and Mejia waiting in the wings should Syndergaard suffer a hiccup or if Dice-K or Lannan flat out suck. With Harvey out and another non-playoff year potentially staring Mets fans in the face, having someone to rally around or get excited about from start of the season could help make an otherwise bad year more palatable.

Who will make a more immediate impact for the Twins: Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano?

The Twins may not have very much talent on the big league roster, but their minor league is a whole different story; that story begins with Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. Both are super talented prospects who have specific skill sets that will serve the Twins well for the future. Buxton is exactly what the Twins would look for in a leadoff hitter, whereas Sano is a middle of the order slugger. There have been few demerits on either’s performance in the minor leagues, but the Twins need some help at the big league level and a lot of their future is tied in Buxton and Sano developing into big league All-Stars.

Miguel Sano may have the best pure power in the minor leagues and is still growing into his large frame. Unfortunately for Sano, his elbow issues have not gone away and he has recently undergone Tommy John surgery, rendering the 2014 season relatively useless. Even when he does play, his power should be sapped a bit and he will not be as solid in the field; all of that being said, Sano is worth the wait. Since moving into professional baseball in 2010, the 20 year old Sano has hit home runs at a prolific pace. He has hit 83 home runs in the last three seasons in the minor leagues; that includes one season where in was in short season rookie ball and were his 18 to 20 year old seasons.

Even more than setting a prolific pace at the plate with home runs, Sano has boosted his walk rate north of 10% and grades out as an above average baserunner. Although there is an abundance of good traits that Sano displays, his poor fielding and high strikeout rate needs to be dealt with as he moves up in the system and on to Minnesota. His strikeout rate has consistently been in the 25% range, with no positive indicators as he has progressed upward through the system. His defense has gotten a bit better as the Twins have decided that his body has grown into third base — they had him between shortstop and third at the beginning of his career — and he did cut his errors nearly in half to 23 this past season.

When all is said about Sano, his power is what will make the difference. If Sano is the 40 home run, 100+ walk hitter that he appears to be, the Twins will be fine if he strikes out 150-175 times per year and will move him to designated hitter if his fielding does not progress. Given that the team does not have much of a chance for the playoffs in a very strong 2014 AL Central, it would be best if they do not rush Sano through his rehabilitation. In fact, this may be a blessing in disguise for the Twins, as Sano will have to be relegated to designated hitter most of the year and the team will be able to see how he reacts to just hitting; some players lose some of their skill at the plate if they do not play the field and the Twins cannot risk that with Sano.

Byron Buxton is the consensus number one rated prospect in minor league baseball and the numbers barely even tell the story on the potential that the young outfielder possesses. There are very few things that are wrong with the approach that Buxton takes to the game and he is truly a five tool player. Over his two stops in A-ball last year, Buxton hit .334 with 12 home runs, 18 triples, and 55 steals while playing an excellent center field. Those numbers are pretty impressive, especially considering that Buxton was only 19 last year, but he does have a couple things to fix before he is a big league star. Buxton may have stolen 55 bases last year, but he was only successful on 74% of his steal attempts. If he continues to steal 50+ bases, the Twins may be ok with a subpar success rate on the base paths but it would be wise for Buxton to create better habits rather than rely purely on his excellent speed.

The biggest issue with Buxton is that his strikeout rate is very high for a leadoff hitter. Buxton has a strikeout rate of about 19% through rookie ball and A-ball; this rate should only get worse as he faces tougher competition. There have been a lot of comparisons to Eric Davis for Buxton; the Twins would be very excited to have a 30/30 type hitter with elite defense, even if his strikeout rates are in the 20% rate. Buxton should get his average closer to .280 or .290 than the .270 that Davis accomplished during his career because his batting average on balls in play is a bit better than Davis’ was; it is to be seen as Buxton’s power develops if he is able to keep the elite BABIP he has displayed, though speedy players are able to find ways to get hits.

Buxton may be a bit better than Sano, but he is a year behind Sano in the system and really needs a full season of upper tier minor league baseball before he takes his spot on top of the Twins lineup. Either way, the Twins have two future MVP candidates in their minor league system and need to make sure that they are utilized the correct way. This is the most vital step in the Twins regaining respectability.

When will the Twins make a trade for the future?

The Twins have very little on their major league roster that is movable, but there are still a couple positions that need filling for the future and they may need to make a trade or two to fill in those gaps. There are very few attractive pieces on the 2014 Twins roster and the Twins need to realize where they are situated as a team and build for the future. They began this last year when they traded away Denard Span and Ben Revere and received Trevor May and Alex Meyer; two starting pitchers that should be strong for the Twins future and may be in the rotation by this summer. The situation is a bit bleak because two of their best hitters, Josh Willingham and Joe Mauer, have expressed that they would like to end their respective careers in Minnesota; in fact, the window for trading Willingham may have expired considering his weak 2013 season. This leaves a couple different options: trading off one of their free agent acquisitions from this past offseason (Ricky Nolasco or Phil Hughes) or trading their All-Star closer Glen Perkins. Considering that the Twins spent a lot of money on Nolasco and see some promise in Hughes pitching in a more spacious ballpark, which leaves the best offer available for Perkins.

Glen Perkins came up in the Twins organization as a starter and the Minnesota native was very ineffective so the Twins moved him to the back end of the bullpen where he has been a very solid reliever. The 31 year old Perkins saved 36 games last year with a sub-1 WHIP and an 11.1 K/9. He has transitioned into being a true two pitch reliever with a solid slider and 95 mph fastball combo that have rated as very good pitches — even with the slider falling off a bit in the past couple years. All of these things are great, but a closer that is as solid as Perkins is really just a luxury for a team that will not compete in 2014 or possibly even 2015. His salary is very attractive as he is owed only $12 million over the next 3 years and he has only gotten better as he has become more accustomed to being a reliever.

The bigger question than who the Twins should trade is what should the Twins trade for; there is a lot of depth in the minor leagues, yet there are a couple gaps. The infield should be fine with Joe Mauer soon to be joined by Sano, Eddie Rosario, and a bit later by Jorge Polanco; the rotation should be fine with a solid group of Meyer, May, Kyle Gibson, and Sean Gilmartin. The real question when looking at what the Twins have for the future is in the third outfield spot and if that will be occupied by Aaron Hicks. Hicks was a top prospect for the Twins and may still have a great future in the majors, but he has not translated any skills to the big league level, as he hit .192 in 281 at-bat last year.

He did show a decent power, speed combination with 8 home runs and 9 steals, but he was not very good in center field and, quite frankly, projects to have more speed than someone that steals only 9 bases. Buxton will take over center field when he makes it up to the majors, so Hicks will play a corner outfield position and his speed could profile very well for those positions in the future as he does have good range and a very strong arm; it would be smart for the Twins to play him on the corners more during the 2014 season. The trade of Perkins would not come until the trade deadline and the Twins would be wise to see exactly what they have in Hicks and then make a decision on their future in the outfield.

How will Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes fare in Minnesota?

The Twins had a truly woeful performance out of their starters during the 2013 and looked to remedy this issue coming into the 2014 season, spending $85 million this offseason on Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes. Each of these pitchers has their flaws, but they should be good additions to the Twins rotation and are young enough to factor into the development of a winning Twins team.

Ricky Nolasco is a questionable signing in that some of the results that he has had contradict themselves and his adjustments may be questionable. The most glaring change for Nolasco is that he has changed his approach to be more of a ground ball pitcher and has used his off-speed pitches a bit more, also employing more of a split-finger fastball than a traditional changeup; these changes have come with scattered results, as Nolasco had a solid 2013 after subpar 2011 and 2012 season. In each of 2011 and 2012, Nolasco saw a 10 point jump in WHIP, nearly lost 2 strikeouts per 9, and was actually not pitching much deeper into games. He was able to maintain his stellar walk rate and allowed fewer home runs, but did lead the league in hits allowed in 2011 and allowed more than 200 in 2012 as well.

Last year, Nolasco turned it around a bit as he worked more with his slider and had some success, especially with the Dodgers as he cut his walks a bit more, struck out more batters and had a lower BABIP than the two previous years. If he is able to build on the successes of 2013 and working with more curveballs and sliders as he had in 2013, he may be a bit better than a league average pitcher. Considering that Nolasco has exhibited that he is a 200 inning type pitcher, he would be a solid addition for the Twins.

Phil Hughes has always seemed on verge of being a solid pitcher just to have bad luck do him in. In watching Hughes develop, he has seemed to over pitch for situations and, although his home run rate is not awful, it seems that every time Hughes allowed a home run it was either a home run that knocked the Yankees out of the game or ruins his confidence; there are legitimate questions about his mental makeup. Hughes allowed five home runs that had a WPA of 20% and 20 of his 24 home runs either gave the other team the lead, tied the game, or made it a one run lead for the Yankees.

As a fly ball pitcher that has had issues with home runs, it is good for Hughes that he has moved on to Minnesota; Yankee Stadium has been the stadium 5th most prone to home runs since it was opened in 2009 and Target Field has been 23rd since opening in 2010. That alone could swing Hughes’ ERA from high 4’s to the mid to low 4’s. Hughes has also decided to work more on his curveball rather than his slider, which could be a good move as Hughes tended to leave his curveball over the plate and it was hit very hard. As for his pitches, the key for Hughes is to regain the command on his fastball, as Hughes had a commanding fastball earlier in his career and has had some issues over the past two years with the pitch. The upside for Hughes is still there; he is only 27 and the change of scenery may be all that he needs to right the ship, but some of the issues highlighted above need to be addressed before Hughes becomes a reliable starter.

What is the plan for development for the top level Twins’ minor league pitchers?

As this article has drawn attention to many times, the Twins have a truly talented farm system and the future should be much brighter for the Twins. Hitters like Sano, Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and Josmil Pinto are going to be great for the Twins as they build, but the pitching needs to be there as well for the team to compete. There are a couple young minor league talents for the Twins like Jose Berrios and first round pick Kohl Stewart but they are a bit too far to really project; the Twins would hope that they are more of factors that make the Twins a playoff team rather than building blocks to getting to be a winning team. There are four pitchers in the minors that should be the building blocks for the Twins and should be very helpful as the team regains respectability. Kyle Gibson has already been in the major leagues and may break camp with the team in 2014, so this question will not look at him, but the trajectory of Alex Meyer, Trevor May, and Sean Gilmartin are things that Twins fans should monitor closely.

Alex Meyer was a 1st round pick in the 2011 draft out of the University of Kentucky and the key part of the trade that sent Denard Span to Washington. After coming to the Twins organization, Meyer was sent to Double-A New Britain and was solid there with a mid-3 ERA and struck out more than a batter an inning. He did miss two months with a shoulder injury, but came back even stronger after the injury, pitching well in New Britain and in the Arizona Fall League. As with most power pitchers, the issue for Meyer is his walks; a good sign for him is that he had his lowest walk rate in his 26 innings of Arizona Fall League and the Twins would hope that this carries over to his 2014 season. Another good sign for Meyer is that even with a high walk rate, his K: BB rate has been over 3 thus far in his career, showing that his aggressive pitching has worked out for him. He should start the year in Rochester with the Triple-A team, but, as with the other two pitchers on this list, a good start in upstate New York should lead to a promotion to the major leagues. He is the most talented pitcher on this list and the 6’9 Meyer is seen as the ace of the future for the Twins.

Continuing on the theme of power pitchers, Trevor May is also in a position to be a threat for the Twins in the future. It has been said before that May is better suited for the bullpen after two weaker seasons in Double-A and that may not be a horrible idea. During his time in the Florida State League with the Clearwater Threshers in 2011, May was dynamic with over 200 strikeouts and was truly unhittable at times. Since then, May’s stock has fallen off a bit as his control issues have had his WHIP stabilize at around 1.4 and his strikeout rate has diminished a bit too. He has a very good fastball and slider and should play those up a bit more and it might not be a bad idea for the Twins to give him one more chance at starting in Triple-A before they move him to the bullpen. As a seasoned 24 year old pitcher with two major league ready pitches, May could be a huge factor in the Twins bullpen during the 2014 season and beyond.

Sean Gilmartin was acquired by the Twins in a trade where they moved a player that they really did not need, Ryan Doumit, to get better for the future. Gilmartin is not a very flashy player, but rather is a low ceiling, high floor type of pitcher that every team needs. A first round pick out of Florida State, Gilmartin has been pushed quickly through the minors leagues and struggled a lot in Triple-A this past year; this should not be a huge issue as the Braves aggressively moved Gilmartin through the system since his pitches were more seasoned than his teammates. Possibly the Braves were a bit too aggressive with Gilmartin considering that he has walked a lot of batters in relation to a low strikeout total and has allowed more than 10 hits per 9 innings.

Since the Twins are in a position to be patient, it would not even shock me to see him start the season in New Britain, gain some momentum going into 2014, and then move up to Triple-A. He is a good pitcher and there are reasons to believe that he will turn it around. The number one reason is that his FIP was a run lower than his ERA last year; each were not very good at all, but at least that shows that there is more skill than the statistics show. He is basically a finished product, coming up through a major college program and more or less handling four pitches; he just needs to be able to put it all together with some decent results and little tinkering in his approach. He will make it up to Minnesota soon and should be a stalwart in the middle of the Twins rotation.

The Twins have to rebuild and they are doing it the right way by building from within. These three pitchers will aid the rebuilding efforts for the Twins and may make them relevant in the near future.

Why are the Twins going to win 74 games?

The Twins made some strides to be respectable this year by adding Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco, but the talent is not there yet and the team just does not have the pieces to compete. Fortunately for the Twins, the talent is coming very soon. The Twins have a top minor league system in baseball and there are a lot of nice pieces that will fill in the empty spaces for the Twins. As this article has discussed, there is top level pitching talent that is very close to Minnesota and then there are the mega prospects in Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. Prospects can always rise and fall, but the Twins have to even cautiously see Buxton and Sano as perennial All-Stars. This year should be tough for the Twins again, but the future is bright.

5 You Know:

1. Josh Willingham

2. Joe Mauer

3. Ricky Nolasco

4. Phil Hughes

5. Kevin Correia

5 You Will Know:

1. Josmil Pinto

2. Trevor May

3. Oswaldo Arcia

4. Sean Gilmartin

5. Alex Meyer

5 You Should Remember:

1. Miguel Sano

2. Byron Buxton

3. Eddie Rosario

4. Jose Berrios

5. Kohl Stewart

This post is inspired by this fine post, which was inspired by this fine post. While this post would be more interesting with more data (pre-2013, is it out there?), I invite you to look a little bit more at how infield shifts might be affecting some players who changed teams this offseason.

The teams of the NL East, as noted by scotman144, conservatively used infield shifts in 2013, combining to just simply match the league’s most furious shifters, the Orioles. The NL in general avoided shifting, as NL teams combined for 9 of the bottom 10 spots in the Jeff Zimmerman-provided rankings. So perhaps, if all of these teams continue their shift-cynical ways, the ideas which I am about to hypothesize will hold merit.

I filtered the data on “WHICH PLAYERS HIT INTO THE MOST SHIFTS AND THE EFFECT ON THEIR BABIP?” to find out which players had the greatest discrepancy between BABIP with shift on vs BABIP with shift off. Then I limited the data to only those who had more than a few times having hit into the shift. Obviously small sample sizes are at play here so it would be nice to look at 2012 and prior data as well.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit into the shift 90 times last year with a 0.300 BABIP. His non-shift BABIP? .416. So perhaps his BABIP luck last year will regress, but so may his number of times seeing a shift, which could be good for his prospects in Miami.

Curtis Granderson missed a lot of time last year but when he did play he almost constantly got the shaft, er I mean shift. I wonder if he realized how much this was hurting his BABIP (shifted BABIP = 0.256, career BABIP = .303) and consciously moved to the NL East for this reason. If so, kudos to him or his agent.

Seth Smith also got shifted on quite a bit, at the tune of a .257 BABIP with shifts on. He hit an astounding .339 without the shift. Lastly I’d like to mention Robinson Cano, who, despite being shifted on 85 times last year, barely saw any noticeable difference in his BABIP with or without the shift. Take that shift! I’d like to see Cano try to grow a beard now that he’s out from under the the fascist anti-beard boot of the Yankees.

Do you want some more AL East shift data to chew on? Well take out your Red Man and munch on this: Carlos Beltran and Alfonso Soriano didn’t quite like their experiences of getting shifted on. Carlos got it 71 times for a .268 BABIP, where Fonz got it 62 times for a .274 BABIP. Both of these players should see nice HR bumps but let’s not discount the potential for a low shift-related BABIP for these players moving to the AL East full-time. I expect AL East teams to continue to shift aggressively — the data suggests they all ought to be doing it more. Perhaps this is the year NL teams start to shift more as well, but you never know?

This article was inspired by the phenomenal work on 2013 shift data at THT by Jeff Zimmerman:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/expanded-2013-infield-shift-data/

Brian McCann’s 5 year 85MM signing by the Yankees has been noted as a pretty good deal as far as Free Agent contracts go. I do not necessarily disagree since he brings leadership and not wholly quantifiable defensive contributions as a marquee catcher. He posted an ISO above the .200 mark in 2013 for the first time since 2009 and reached 20HR for the 7th time in 8 seasons despite only playing in 102 games due to injury. His generally above average OBP rebounded from a career low .300 in 2012 to .336. His heinous .234 babip from 2012 regressed upward somewhat back to .261. While there are many outward signs that his 2013 bounce back re-established him as a premier offensive contributor (122 wRC+) there are some other numbers that give me pause about his future in New York.

I found Jeff Zimmerman’s 2013 infield shift data article fascinating in so many different ways but one of the major takeaways that I got from it was the disparity of shifting frequency across MLB divisions. Granted, a division with more extreme ground ball pulling shift candidates may lead to more shifts. However, the league leading Orioles had 470 shifts implemented on ball in play events compared to just 473 shifts in the ENTIRE NL EAST in 2013 (108 of those 473 NL East shifts were implemented by the Braves). Overall there were 1800 ball in play shift events in the AL East in 2013 compared to 473 shifts in the NL East. 11 of the top 15 shifting teams in 2013 MLB were AL clubs. (AL East teams are #’s 1,2,6,8,16 overall in # of 2013 shifts)

This is where Mr. McCann and his offensive future comes in: Brian McCann hit into 123 shifts out of 402 PA (30% of PA) in 2013. He hit .179 on balls in play against the shift and .299 when the shift was not on. For comparison David Ortiz hit into 338 shifts in 2013 in 600 PA (56% of PA). Obviously there are smaller than ideal samples in this data and we all know babip fluctuates wildly. That being said the shift deflated McCann’s babip to some degree unquestionably last season and probably has been doing so for a while (I’d love to see this data for 2012, 2011 etc. broken out by batter).

If generally shift-conservative NL East teams were exploiting this aspect of McCann’s game then you can bet he’ll see even more shifts in the shift-happy AL East and across the AL in general. McCann’s GB/FB distribution has stayed slanted toward FB throughout his career around a 0.88 ratio. He has seen his babip decline like most MLB veterans do post-peak. There’s a good chance that his babip will continue to decline and perhaps quite precipitously upon his move to the AL East.

I’ll end this article with an intentionally scary and possibly not totally fair comparison since it’s a strictly left handed hitter compared to a switch hitter: McCann’s career line is .277/.350/.473 with a .289 babip and 0.88 GB/FB ratio. Mark Teixeira’s Left Handed Hitting career line is .267/.359/.518 with a .277 babip and 0.87 GB/FB ratio. If McCann’s batting average/babip were to decline at a similarly faster than normal rate like Teixeira’s I’d blame those shifty AL rivals. The short porch in New York may create some extra HRs but the AL East defensive environment could take those gains away and then some on balls in play.

It will be interesting to compare the 2014 shift data to the 2013 season and see which teams decided to implement the shift more and less frequently. The caveat must also be mentioned that not all shifts are created equal and some teams were much more effective at converting shift balls in play into outs than others. Does that have to do with superior personnel/positioning?

Thanks again to Jeff Zimmerman for the inspired shift research that made this piece possible.

Who will anchor the back end of the rotation?

The Royals are a good team that may be on the verge of being a great team. The 86 wins by the Royals last year were very solid and a lot of that success came from solid pitching. The Royals led the American League in ERA during 2013, but even with the top ERA there were problems with the rotation. These rotation issues may be expanded on in 2014, as the Royals let Ervin Santana leave during free agency. They have signed Jason Vargas and are looking for support from their strong minor league system, both of which will keep the Royals in the playoff hunt throughout the season. James Shields, the aforementioned Vargas, and Jeremy Guthrie are solid if not stable arms at the top of the rotation, but before the Royals can be seen as a true competitor for the playoffs, they have to figure out the back end of their rotation.

Bruce Chen has been in the major leagues for 15 years and has only started 30 games twice, has had an ERA over 5 seven times in his career, and has played for 9 different teams. Yet, as the 2014 season begins, a playoff competitor is relying on him to be a vital part to their success. These statistics are completely true and Chen should not be completely trusted and the Royals need to find a good way to have him fit in the scheme of their whole pitching staff. Chen was successful last year as a swing man, as he started 15 games and pitched in 19 other ones last year out of the bullpen. In fact, when you look at the splits for Chen from the 2013 season, it is revealed that he was most effective when he pitched every 3 or 4 days, and as a starter he averaged 5.8 innings per start and 1.7 per appearance as a reliever.

This year begins with the Royals keeping Chen as their number 4 starter. Chen has an ERA of 4.53 in the seasons during his career wherein he was primarily a starter, which compares closely to his career 4.49 ERA. A very good thing for the Royals is that in the past 4 years, Chen has pretty much been a league average starter and has averaged 24 starts a season. What is very foreboding for Chen is that he had a career high fly ball rate in 2013, paired with a career low ground ball rate and home run rate. A big question for 2014 is if the fly balls turn into home runs. Chen has always been a fly ball pitcher, but there is a huge difference between allowing 11% of fly balls to be home runs and 7% of fly balls to be home runs, especially if 52% of hits are fly balls; in fact, it was the difference of 10 home runs.

If this trend can continue, he could really help the Royals; a good omen is that in 3 of Chen’s 5 seasons in Kansas City, he has had a single digit home run/fly ball ratio. It really is a mixed bag for Chen, as a below average starter became a very good swing man last year. There are a lot of good young starters in the minor league system for the Royals and it might not be a bad idea for Chen to piggy back some of those young pitchers as they gain their footing in the big leagues.

Danny Duffy is one of the good young pitchers that the Royals are waiting on to bloom. Duffy has had a very spotty and injury riddled three year career in the big leagues. After a disastrous 20 starts in 2011, Duffy has only pitched 52 innings in the majors and has had some very odd trends. His strikeout rate has gone up over the past two years, but that has been at the expense of his control, as he is walking a hitter more per nine, leading to his strikeout to walk rate being better in a season where he had a 5.64 ERA than in parts of two seasons where he had a 2.94 ERA. He has become more of a fly ball pitcher, as a pitcher trending to strikeout more batters would, but two other statistics are indicators that Duffy may have some issues. His line drive percentage was up 6% last year from 2012 and he allowed no home runs even though he allowed 26 fly balls to the outfield as compared to 1 to the infield.

Those ratios would say that hitters are making solid contact and that balls may end up going over the wall. When combined with the fact that Duffy allows 5 walks per 9 innings, there is a lot to worry about in regards to avoid big innings. What is even more of a problem is that Duffy has only pitched 100 innings twice in a season since he was drafted in 2007. For the Royals to expect 150-175 innings out of Duffy he would need to double the amount of innings he pitched last year; and this is a player with an injury history that needs to also be examined. Duffy is a good pitcher and that is why the Royals have been patient with him, but the 25 year old lefty needs to show progress this year before he is passed in the organization by pitchers like Kyle Zimmer and Yordano Ventura.

There are other ways that the Royals can try to fix the back end of their rotation, one of which that will be discussed in a bit, but the Royals will first give the chance to Chen and Duffy to hold down the back of the rotation. Both have had success in the past and should be able to help the Royals this season. There are a couple pitchers waiting in the wings it they do fail and that depth is why the Royals rotation should not fall off much from the 2013 season. In fact, considering how ineffective Wade Davis and Luis Mendoza were, the rotation may even be better in 2014.

When will Yordano Ventura make it to the major leagues to stay?

The diminutive Dominican Ventura has been in the Royals system since 2008 when he signed at 17 and he has made an impact as a high strikeout pitcher and is the Royals prospect that is the closest to the major leagues. As Ventura has progressed, many have questioned his size yet no one has questioned his talent and Ventura made three starts for the Royals at the end of the 2013 season. The important thing now is finding a role for Ventura and seeing how he can help the Royals for the future and what role is best for him.

Yordano Ventura has defied his size issues and has developed into one of the better power pitching prospects in minor league baseball. On top of that, his walk rate has only been over 10% in a six start stint in AA in 2012. There are many pitchers that are deemed power pitchers and we accept that and assume that they will strike out a bunch of hitters; Ventura’s stuff does not need assumption, he throws 98 on average with a curveball, cutter, and changeup. His cutter may need a lot of work, but Ventura is ready to be a very good major league reliever just based on his curveball and, especially, his fastball. Those are out pitches and if the Royals do have an injury in their elite bullpen, Ventura could fill in the gaps of the bullpen.

That is not the long term vision that the Royals have for the talented righty. In fact, GM Dayton Moore came out last week and said that Ventura will be available for up to 200 innings this year. The Royals have not been shy to stretch out Ventura’s arm throughout his career, as he has started about 20 games a season in the past three seasons. What is very smart for the Royals is that they have waited for Ventura to progress through each level before they moved him to the next level of the minor leagues rather than rush him. He struggled a bit in AA in 2012 and the Royals sent him back to Northwest Arkansas to begin the 2013 and succeed their before moving him to AAA Omaha. In the same way, it would make sense for the Royals to figure out which role they need most from Ventura for the 2014 season and have him work either out of the rotation or the bullpen in Omaha rather than learn the ropes of the majors.

Ventura averages about 5 innings pitched per game in the minor leagues and the Royals need to get that closer to 6 innings before he moves up to the big leagues. He also threw 16 pitches per inning in the major leagues, which is not terrible for a pitcher that strikes out as many batters as Ventura does. The best sign for Ventura, even more than the high strikeout rate, was that while in the majors he allowed a good amount of groundballs. He did allow 3 home runs in the 15.1 innings with the Royals, which is not a great omen, but there are so many other good factors that there is every reason to believe that Ventura will positively affect the 2014 Royals. The best thing for Ventura is to be in the minor leagues until early June, both helping the Royals assess what role they see Ventura fill at the big league level and so that he saves a year in arbitration.

In the end, Ventura is a high talent and the Royals will find a way to maximize his skill set. The repertoire that Ventura features would make him an instant impact arm out of the bullpen, but the Royals want to see if there is more from Ventura than just being a vital one inning arm. This will be a key plotline to watch unfold during this season and throughout Ventura’s young career.

How does Norichika Aoki impact the Royals lineup?

As an older average hitter that is above average at some skills, yet not spectacular at any skill, Aoki was vastly underappreciated in Milwaukee. Also, Khris Davis coming up from the minor leagues and showing a good amount of power and Ryan Braun coming back from a PED ban made Aoki quite expendable with the Brewers; the team was very willing to trade Aoki and the Royals were quite happy to extend an offer. Trading away the equally expendable Will Smith, the Royals landed a new leadoff hitter and a table setter for the RBI guys beneath him

The 2013 Royals were a good team that was missing an essential piece to a winning team — a leadoff hitter, and Aoki will fill that void very well. Since coming over to the United States, Aoki has shown that he will get on base 35% of the time, steal 25 bases a year, and play an excellent right field. This is vital for the Royals as right field was also a dead zone for the Royals in 2013. All of these are the positives for Aoki, but he did have some issues last year as compared to his rookie year. The 32 year old had a drop off in his power stats, as his slugging percentage dropped by 63 points. By getting 21 more hits in 2013 as compared to 2012, essentially Aoki hit singles where he was hitting doubles in 2012. This could be an issue, but the Royals just need to make sure that Aoki gets on base and is working the count at the top of the lineup.

Aoki is one of the toughest players in the majors strike out and did boost his walks during the 2013 season. The Royals are not asking for Aoki to do more than what is in his skill set and if he is able to do that, the team will be very good for it. His solid on base percentage and ability to create contact will be a huge boost to the top of the lineup. If his BABIP could creep into the .310-.315 as well, Aoki could even be a 200 hit guy for the team; the Royals knew what they got when they traded for Aoki and filled a lot of holes in what was a playoff contender. On top of the good addition of Aoki, the Royals added Omar Infante, which will also make Aoki a 110-115 run scoring threat.

Evidence through history shows that winning teams usually make at least one trade where they have good foresight to fill a huge need; the Royals did just this by adding Aoki to the team. Along with Omar Infante at the top of the lineup, Aoki will add value to the team as a tough out and create issues for defenses as a high contact hitter. The Royals lineup lacked a true leadoff hitter last year and the addition of Aoki may be the difference needed to make them a playoff team.

What can the Royals expect from Mike Moustakas?

The second pick of the 2007 draft out of high school in California, high expectations have abounded with Moustakas since he was drafted. Those expectations went even higher when, as a 21, he had 77 extra base hits between AA and AAA while cutting down his strikeouts by 23. The Royals felt that they had the third baseman of their future and Moustakas was a top 10 prospect coming into the season. In the 375 games that Moustakas has been in the big leagues, though, that promise has not been fulfilled and the Royals have exherted a lot of effort towards giving the proper opportunities to the high touted Moustakas. He is still young and for that reason the team will continue to allow him to develop, but there are a couple issues with his performance that need clearing up before he can become a star.

After his amazing 2010 season, Moustakas was called up to the big leagues and really has struggled since that point. The power that he exhibited during the 2010 season has been see in spurts during his tenure in Kansas City, most notably during the 2012 season, but there have been so many other issues with him that the Royals have consistently had to make excuses for him. In fact, his defense has really been the thing that has kept him in the good graces of the Royals brass, as he has rounded into a very good defensive third baseman. Since a poor 2011 season, Moustakas’ on base percentage has lowered each year, even with his walk rate raising.

An interesting observation is that Moustakas has seen less fastballs over the past two years and has struggled with off speed pitches. A fair guess is that in the minors Moustakas saw mostly fastballs and he maximized his opportunities against the four seam fastball. He has seen 8-10% less four seam fastballs and less sinkers as well over the past two years and has seen more sliders, curveballs, and changeups. Moustakas needs to adjust his approach at the plate to stay back on off speed pitches and possibly work to be more of a doubles hitter than a power hitter. It is a good thing for his future that his walk rate is getting better, but he will continue to struggle if he is not able to identify pitches and lower his strikeout rate.

His fly ball/home run ratio was a bit down during the 2013 season from where he was in 2012 and possibly if that gets a bit better, Moustakas may be able to inch up to 20 home runs again. The best situation for Moustakas is to not try to hit the ball out of the ballpark, continue to build up his line drive rate and become more of a 40 double player rather than a 30 home run hitter. His approach at the plate is way out of whack and, just from watching him, it appears that unless the pitcher is explicitly tipping his pitch, he is not able to identify a curveball from a slider or a changeup from a fastball. He needs to continue to work on pitch recognition and if he is able to improve on that, he will be around a .260 hitter with 20-25 home runs and 30-35 doubles at his peak.

The situation of Mike Moustakas is very similar to many prospects, a team sees that there is promise with a player and just assumes that the production shown in the minor leagues can effortlessly transfer to the major leagues. If Mike Moustakas were to look for advice on how to properly adjust to the big leagues, he need not look further than his own dugout with Alex Gordon. He needs to work on what his talent set lends him to and not try to exert extra effort into things that are outside of his skill set. It is too early in his career to make any broad assumptions on his production, but at this point Moustakas is just a work in progress.

Why are the Royals going to win 87 games?

This is a team that has been on the verge of breaking out and being a playoff team and 2014 should be the season that all of the promise for the Royals comes to life. The second half of Eric Hosmer’s 2013 showed that he could be a star for the 2014 season and the Royals lineup should be very strong throughout. The addition of Norichika Aoki has been detailed in this article and he is one of the more underrated players in baseball and should be a great addition to the team as a leadoff hitter that is a table setter for the RBI guys behind him. There is not a lot of power in the lineup, but there are a couple guys in the lineup that have 20-25 home run power, which should provide enough offense to fuel a successful season.

As for pitching, James Shields will anchor what should be a stable rotation. There is not a pitcher in the rotation that is particularly exciting other than Shields, but Bruce Chen, Jeremy Guthrie, and Jason Vargas are innings eaters that will serve their purpose through the season. The rotation may not even need to be that awesome through the season, though, because the Royals have a very deep and elite bullpen, anchored by Greg Holland. At some point this season Yordano Ventura will be on the major league roster as well and should positively affect the team either in the bullpen or the rotation. This team will be a team to watch for the 2014 season and should play into October.

5 You Know:
1. Billy Butler
2. Alex Gordon
3. James Shields
4. Eric Hosmer
5. Jeremy Guthrie

5 You Will Know:
1. Yordano Ventura
2. Kyle Zimmer
3. Jason Adam
4. Sean Manaea
5. Miguel Almonte

5 You Should Remember:
1. Bubba Starling
2. Hunter Dozier
3. Adalberto Mondesi
4. Christian Binford
5. Jorge Bonifacio

Leading up to Spring Training for the St. Louis Cardinals, there were plenty of articles written about the incredible starting pitching depth of the Cardinals. They had seven legitimate options for the rotation, and it wasn’t a stretch to say eight. While there was always going to be competition in the rotation, Jaime Garcia’s injury opens up a much more focused competition for the Cardinals’ 5^th rotation spot. The four locks for the rotation are Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha. While another pitcher could join the discussion, the battle for the final spot is essentially between Joe Kelly and Carlos Martinez. There really is no clear favorite, as Kelly is the incumbent, but Martinez carries much greater upside. The pitcher that fails to capture the 5^th slot in the rotation will likely serve as a late-inning reliever for the Cardinals, which may influence the Cardinals’ decision.

Based off Joe Kelly’s impressive performance last season it would be easy to assume he is the favorite to be the 5^th starter; however, his advanced metrics do not support his traditional statistics. While Kelly pitched to a 10-5 record with a 2.69 ERA, he had an FIP of 4.01 and an unsustainable 82.4 Left on Base % (LOB%). Joe Kelly also possesses a power sinker in the mid-90s, a plus change-up and solid-average curveball. Despite this power repertoire, Kelly has never struck out many batters, as he has a career K/9 of just 6.00. This is not overly concerning, but does leave Kelly vulnerable to high variability in performance, since he is so heavily dependent upon his defense.

I have, to this point, only pointed out Kelly’s weaknesses in order tamper expectations, but in reality, Kelly is a very talented starter. Kelly is a very strong groundball pitcher (career 51.4%), which has helped him limit his Hr/9 (career .78). To this point in his career, Kelly has done a great job of limiting runs, which is all that is really important. In 2013, Kelly allowed just 3.05 runs per 9 innings. The Cardinals certainly know the concerns with Kelly, but they are also aware of his upside. While Kelly is likely to serve as a late-inning option for the Cardinals if he is not named their 5^th starter, he has not been as effective as a reliever. In an admittedly small sample of just 37 innings in 2013, Kelly carried a 3.65 ERA and an opponent’s slash line of .284/.342/.435 as a reliever.

Now looking at Carlos Martinez, it is clear that Martinez is the starter with much more upside, as he can consistently reach triple digits and strike out nearly 9 batters per 9 innings. In a tiny sample of 28 1/3 innings at the Big League level last year, Martinez pitched to a 5.08 ERA, but a much better 3.08 FIP. Most of those innings came in relief, as he made just one start in the Majors, but he was still very impressive. While Martinez’s ERA was high, he was hurt by a high BABIP of .345 and a low LOB% of just 64.9%. Despite carrying substantial upside, Martinez has never thrown more than 108 IP in a professional season, which raises concerns about his ability to handle a starter’s workload for a full season. Also, unlike Kelly, Martinez is likely to thrive in a late-inning relief role, as he carried a 2.33 FIP in 23 2/3 IP as a reliever. If the two pitchers have similar evaluations at the end of spring training, then I believe Martinez will be relegated to the bullpen where he can thrive and further develop as an MLB pitcher.

While it may seem that Kelly is the front-runner to be the Cardinals’ 5^th starter, it is clear that each starter has plenty of positives and negatives. Kelly’s negative traits largely revolve around regression to the mean in many areas, such as LOB% and ERA. Whereas Martinez’s positives are very similar to his negatives, as there are many questions about how well he will do as a starter full time. It is always nice to dream on a player’s potential and stuff, he must also prove he can be effective in his role and Martinez has not yet done that. This will be a fun competition to watch in spring training. I believe Kelly will come out of spring training as the Cardinals’ 5^th starter because he has proven he can perform as a starter, but also because he is not as strong a fit for the bullpen. If Martinez is not named the 5^th starter, he can still be a lights out reliever, whereas, Kelly may not be as effective in such a role.

When Robinson Cano signed his 10-year, $240 million deal with the Seattle Mariners, it validated two things: (1) that the going rate for players who can consistently put up +5 WAR is at least $200 million, and (2) a second baseman who can hit like a first baseman is extremely valuable. There aren’t a lot of second baseman in the league who have the 30-homer, .500+ slugging percentage, and .316+ ISO, seasons that Cano does.

Second baseman aren’t considered to be players who have an excess of power. You can make an argument for guys like Ian Kinsler and Dan Uggla. However, neither is the player he used to be. Uggla is a shell of his former self, who can run into a dinger every now and then, but he’s not going to return to the power threat that he once was. While Kinsler has shown some above-average power for a second baseman, most of that power can be attributed to the friendly confines of  The Ballpark in Arlington. Kinsler’s power has also been waning over the past three years, as both his home run totals and slugging percentage have been in decline.

Kinsler’s Power Stats

2011: HR 32, SLG .477,  ISO .223

2012: HR 19, SLG .423, ISO .166

2013: HR 13, SLG .413,  ISO .136

Kinsler is obviously declining as a power threat, and the change from The Ballpark at Arlington to Comerica Park will probably not be kind to him, either. However, just because Kinsler is not hitting for above-average power doesn’t mean that he’s not a valuable second baseman. Kinsler can still hit for some power, and his glove is decent enough to make him one of the better second basemen in the game.

Uggla’s value is derived from his ability to draw walks and hit home runs. He has always had  trouble making contact, which in return drove down his OBP, making power the main reason he was good.

Uggla’s Power Stats

2011: HR 36, SLG .453, ISO .220

2012: HR 19, SLG .384, ISO .164

2013: HR 22, SLG .362, ISO .183

Like Kinsler, Uggla’s power has declined. However, this is to be expected given that he is 34 years old. What is more concerning is Uggla’s decline in slugging percentage, as he has had sub .400 slugging percentages for the past two years.  In both his 2012 and 2013 season, Uggla’s value derived solely from dingers. Uggla has  become a one-dimensional player when it comes to his bat.

Despite that two of the most powerful second basemen in baseball are declining in power, there remains hope in the form of the San Diego Padres’ new, young second baseman Jedd Gyorko.

Gyorko has the potential power of a first baseman. Last year, he hit 23 home runs, had a slugging percentage of .444, and ISO of .200. Considering that he was playing in Petco Park, which decreases homers by 13% for right-handers, his 2013 campaign was very impressive.

ZiPS and Steamer project Gyorko to hit between 20-25 homers next year, and to be somewhere between a +2.5 – 3.5 WAR player. Even if Gyorko’s 2014 campaign mirrors conservative projections, he is still going to be a top-10 second baseman.

Gyorko does comes with flaws. There are definitely some holes in his swing, which make him prone to strikeouts. He also is not going to have a high OBP. Gyorko is going to be a powerful bat with a decent glove, which recalls Uggla. Uggla has certainly had his struggles, and it’s not looking like he will turn things around. However, previously he was similar to what Gyorko appears to be: decent glove, above-average power.

Many of those who follow baseball — front offices, fans, certain baseball writers — seem to have profiles for positions. First basemen, third basemen and corner outfielders are thought of as powerful. Shortstops, center fielders  and second basemen are thought of as  having quick hands and being speedy. However, a player like Gyorko is valuable because he sets himself apart from the typical second baseman profile. Instead of being speedy and hitting for a high average, he’s powerful. Second basemen that hit like first baseman are rare, and that’s why Gyorko is a special player.