Marco Estrada Might Be Getting Better

Marco Estrada has a .302 BABIP. If you don’t know, Estrada has been one of the best pitchers at limiting batting average on balls in play. Of the 41 qualified pitchers who have at least 750 innings pitched throughout their career, Estrada has the sixth-worst BABIP difference this season relative to his career.

Despite this increase, Estrada has managed a 3.86 ERA. It’s not great but it ranks 43^rd among qualified pitchers (90) this season. Marco’s 3.59 FIP ranks 25^th, one of the more intriguing developments of this season. From 2015-2016, Estrada had the second-largest difference between his FIP and ERA, behind only Dan Haren, who did not pitch in 2016.

One of the game’s better contact managers, Marco Estrada looks to be adapting. The Blue Jays ace has the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career thus far. Estrada has the thirteenth-best strikeout percentage this season, sandwiched between Cardinals ace Carlos Martinez and Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg. There are 45 pitchers who qualified for the leaderboards for the past two seasons, only six of which had a greater K/9 increase. Driving this increase looks to be the change.

Estrada’s changeup is one of the best in the league. It’s not a hard change like Stephen Strasburg’s; rather the second-slowest in the league, ahead of only Jered Weaver. There are a couple of factors that make Estrada’s changeup one of the best. Foremost, it comes with an 11 MPH separation between his fastball, making it great for generating whiffs. Furthermore, his release points allow him to deceive batters. The pitch comes from a similar angle as the fastball but travels 10+ MPH slower, making it more difficult to pick up. If you’re thinking the fastball is coming, and a split-second later you realize it’s much slower, by then you’ve already swung as the ball goes right by you. Lastly, the pitch gets little drop. Estrada’s vertical movement on the changeup was 2.56 inches higher than the next right-hander, Chase Anderson. This is another problem for the hitter as the pitch barely drops relative to a major league pitcher’s average changeup.

In the end, you’ve got a pitch that might look like a fastball from the arm slot, is going quite slow, and doesn’t drop much. You can see how the batter faces a tough quandary. The fastball-changeup combo play off each other well. Deception is a key part of Estrada’s arsenal. To get even better, Estrada began to utilize his best pitch more. Using your best pitch isn’t a novel concept. We’ve seen Rich Hill and Lance McCullers Jr. have success in this mold.

Decreasing the usage of the cutter has brought better performance thus far. The cutter is inducing more swinging strikes, and less contact, as hitters have swung more often when he throws it. In 2016, Estrada threw 625 cutters leading to a .352 wOBA, the worst of his four pitches. In 2017, Estrada has thrown 93 cutters, to the tune of a .272 wOBA, currently the best of his repertoire. Why the change? The cutter has seen a massive drop in vertical movement, likely the reason for its reduced usage. While the results have been better, the process might not be. Marco has been unable to get sufficient rise on the cutter. Moreover, the increased effectiveness might simply be due to small sample size. Or perhaps throwing it less brings its own added value.

ACEstrada, as he is affectionately known as to Jays fans, has ramped up usage of his four-seam fastball as well. The pitch is still strong and it’s traveling a mile faster. It won’t keep a 31% strikeout rate but it should continue to induce lots of infield fly balls. On the downside, the average launch speed on the fastball on line drives and fly balls is up 1.5 MPH from last season, to 94.7 MPH. This would explain part of the .316 BABIP it currently sports, up 52 points compared to his career. With a first-pitch-strike rate the highest since his last season with the Brewers, and his best walk rate since 2013, Estrada’s not making it tougher than it has to be. Pitches inside the strike zone are at the highest rate of his career. Once again, it’s because of a changeup he’s commanding very well. It’s practically 50/50 whether the change will make it in the zone, up 8 percentage points relative to his career average.

Looking at Estrada’s batted-ball profile, the big one that jumps out is the decrease in popups. He’s inducing more than 50% fewer popups this season relative to last year. The main culprit: the changeup.  Given Estrada has an 18.2% popup rate on his changeup compared to the changeup generating popups at a 34% clip during his career, it’s likely this issue sorts itself out as the season progresses. With good command, Estrada is capable of finding those easy outs through strikeouts or pop-outs.

To counteract a cutter not moving like it usually does and some BABIP regression, Estrada turned to his two best pitches. The ERA should improve as the season progresses. Being a two-pitch pitcher isn’t an easy task; Estrada has the command of his two primary pitches to pull it off. The key during the rest of the season will be to hold his strikeout and walk gains while continuing to be one of the league’s better contact managers.  Combined, the Blue Jays ace might be getting better. Marco Estrada will play a key role down the stretch; whether it be with the Jays or for a contender in a contract year.