Lorenzo Cain Follow-Up: Market Value and 2018 Projections

As one of the remaining top free agents, Cain agreed to a 5yr/$80M deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. Reports indicate that Cain will earn $75M from 2018 to 2022 ($13M/$14M/$15M/16M/$17M) plus incentives, in addition to a deferred yearly payment of $1M for years 2023-2027 ($5M total). Based on Cain’s projected Market Value, he should be worth close to 9.6 sWAR for the next 3 years ($84M approx. Assuming 5% inflation per year). Understandably, Cain’s history regarding injuries and durability is a considerable factor moving forward.

A new home should benefit Cain’s offensive output. For the past 3 years, Miller Park has averaged a 106 HR Factor for RHB; which is significantly (P = 0.03) higher than Kauffman Stadium’s 88 (RHB) in the same period. Moreover, Cain has not “slowed” down, his sprint speed for last year (29.1 ft./sec) ranked him in the top 20 overall, in addition to being ranked in the top 10 among Center-Fielders as well.

Based on the aforementioned factors, Cain’s 2018 updated projections represent an increase in both OPS and ISO from last season. He should be able to get on-base at an above-average rate (0.358 OBP) in addition to an increase in SLG from last year. Although his wOBA is projected to regress marginally, Cain’s updated projections still aim toward a 3.7 sWAR (as a CF) for this upcoming season. Please find Cain’s updated 2018 projections in the chart below.

2018 Projections: Lorenzo Cain
YEAR	AGE	sWAR	wOBA	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	AVG	K%	BB%
2015	29	5.5	0.360	0.361	0.477	0.838	0.170	0.307	16.2%	6.1%
2016	30	2.7	0.322	0.339	0.408	0.747	0.121	0.287	19.4%	7.1%
2017	31	4.1	0.347	0.363	0.440	0.803	0.140	0.300	15.5%	8.4%
2018	32	3.7	0.336	0.358	0.457	0.815	0.157	0.300	16.9%	7.4%

———————————————————————————————————————————————————Disclaimer: SEG projections are computer-based projections of performance based on the “SEG Projections System” framework. Regarding Wins Above Replacement (WAR), sWAR is the “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR. sWAR will always stand for WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT (“WAR”), unless noted otherwise.