Jim Thome: First and Last Three Outcomes Hall of Famer

Jim Thome was elected to the Hall of Fame on January 24th.  Given my recent obsession with the three true outcomes, I immediately recognized the significance of this event.  I believe Jim Thome is the first, and likely the last three true outcomes Hall of Famer.

Table 1 shows Thome’s home run, walk, and strikeout rates along with his three true outcomes rate for each season.  The final column is the MLB average three true outcomes rate for the season.  Thome was a three true outcomes machine from 1996 until his retirement in 2012.

Table 1. Jim Thome, Three Outcomes Hall of Famer

Season	Team	PA	HR/PA	BB/PA	SO/PA	TTO	Avg TTO
1991	Indians	104	1%	5%	15%	21%	26%
1992	Indians	131	2%	8%	26%	35%	25%
1993	Indians	192	4%	15%	19%	38%	26%
1994	Indians	369	5%	12%	23%	41%	27%
1995	Indians	557	4%	17%	20%	42%	28%
1996	Indians	636	6%	19%	22%	47%	28%
1997	Indians	627	6%	19%	23%	49%	28%
1998	Indians	537	6%	17%	26%	48%	28%
1999	Indians	629	5%	20%	27%	53%	28%
2000	Indians	684	5%	17%	25%	48%	29%
2001	Indians	644	8%	17%	29%	54%	28%
2002	Indians	613	8%	20%	23%	51%	28%
2003	Phillies	698	7%	16%	26%	49%	28%
2004	Phillies	618	7%	17%	23%	47%	28%
2005	Phillies	242	3%	19%	24%	46%	27%
2006	White Sox	610	7%	18%	24%	49%	28%
2007	White Sox	536	7%	18%	25%	49%	28%
2008	White Sox	602	6%	15%	24%	45%	28%
2009	2 teams	434	5%	16%	28%	50%	29%
2010	Twins	340	7%	18%	24%	49%	29%
2011	2 teams	324	5%	14%	28%	47%	29%
2012	2 teams	186	4%	12%	33%	49%	30%

Thome was part of a small group of specialists with multiple dominant three true outcomes seasons.  Table 2 provides a list of players with 4 or more of these dominant seasons.  I consider a season with at least 170 plate appearances and a 49% three true outcome rate as a dominant season.  The casual three true outcomes observer will recognize the players on this list as notable specialists.  Rob Deer, of course, is the iconic three true outcomes hitter.  I used Deer’s career three true outcomes rate of 49% and 4 dominant season to construct the table.

Table 2. Dominant Three True Outcomes Specialists

Player	Career	Seasons
Jim Thome	1991-2012	10
Adam Dunn	2001-2014	9
Russell Branyan	1998-2011	8
Mark McGwire	1986-2001	6
Jack Cust	2001-2011	5
Chris Carter	2010-2017	5
Rob Deer	1984-1996	4
Chris Davis	2008-2017	4
Alex Avila	2009-2017	4

Thome’s 10 dominant seasons are more than any other player.  He is also the only Hall of Famer on the list.

Maybe Mark McGwire should be in the Hall of Fame (depending on your PED era position).  Already past eligibility to be inducted by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA), perhaps he will have a chance in the future with the Veterans Committee.

Adam Dunn will be on the 2020 ballot.  He was a consistent three true outcomes specialist, but we will see if the BBWAA consider him a dominant player over the course of his career.

Russel Branyan and Jack Cust are interesting players to see on this list.  Branyan makes the list because of my 170 plate appearance requirement.  Cust was a dominant three true outcomes hitter for five straight years, 2007-2011.  Neither are on the Hall of Fame ballot.

Carter and Avila do not have contracts for 2018, but could land somewhere.  Davis is signed with Baltimore through 2022.  Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge are two young hitters in the three true outcomes mold not yet on the list.  So maybe it is too soon to make a judgement on the Hall of Fame potential of three true outcomes hitters in the future?

But I am going out on a limb to say that despite the trend towards three true outcomes baseball, we have seen our first and last three true outcomes Hall of Famer in Jim Thome.