J.D. Martinez: Market Value and 2018 Projections

J.D. Martinez had another great year in 2017. With 3.9 sWAR[1] and a .430 wOBA, J.D. contributed well above average once again. Offensively (wOBA) he has been able to consistently contribute year after year since 2014. J.D. does carry some defensive shortcomings, yet he is an excellent asset in any lineup.

For the past three years he has been able to get on base at an above-average rate (.364 OBP), alongside an excellent .289 ISO and a .587 SLG. He does carry a lifetime 25% K-rate (approx.), but as long as he is able to produce and contribute the way he has, he should be able to make an impact in any organization.

In 2018[2], J.D. should see a slight decrease in wOBA (.395). Based on the 2018 projections, both OPS and ISO should decline marginally; nevertheless, J.D. should be able to perform as a top-caliber player.

Please find J.D.’s 2018 projections in the table below.

2018 Projections: J.D. Martinez
YEAR	AGE	sWAR	wOBA	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	AVG	K%	BB%
2015	28	4.7	0.372	0.344	0.535	0.879	0.253	0.282	27.1%	8.1%
2016	29	2.0	0.384	0.373	0.535	0.908	0.228	0.307	24.8%	9.5%
2017	30	3.9	0.430	0.376	0.690	1.066	0.387	0.303	26.2%	10.8%
2018	31	3.6	0.395	0.365	0.591	0.955	0.293	0.298	26.0%	9.6%
Projections: “SEG Projection System” (Including sWAR for 2015-2018) sWAR = “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR

J.D. Martinez’s estimated AAV is around $27M, based on a five-year/$135M contract. J.D. is projected for 14.6 sWAR for the next five years.

Market Value: J.D. Martinez
YEAR	AGE	sWAR	Value	$WAR
2018	31	3.6	30.6	$8.4
2019	32	3.5	30.7	$8.8
2020	33	3.0	27.5	$9.2
2021	34	2.5	24.2	$9.7
2022	35	2.0	20.3	$10.2
TOTAL		14.6	$133.4
sWAR = “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR  $WAR: Adjusted for Inflation (5% per year)

[1] sWAR = “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR

[2] 2018 Projections: JD Martinez (SEG Projection System)