In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 2013 Miami Marlins 

OWAR: 33.0     OWS: 255     OPW%: .468     (76-86)

AWAR: 18.5      AWS: 185     APW%: .383     (62-100)

WARdiff: 14.5                        WSdiff: 70  

 

The “Original” 2013 Marlins tied with the Phillies for last place, yet the ball club managed to school the “Actuals” by a 14-game margin. Miguel Cabrera seized MVP honors for the second consecutive season and notched his third straight batting title. “Miggy” produced a .348 BA, dialed long-distance 44 times and knocked in 137 baserunners. Adrian Gonzalez swatted 22 big-flies and reached the century mark in RBI for the sixth time in his career. Matt Dominguez drilled 25 two-base hits and blasted 21 round-trippers. Giancarlo Stanton supplied 26 doubles and 24 four-baggers as a member of the “Originals” and “Actuals”.

  Original 2013 Marlins                              Actual 2013 Marlins

STARTING LINEUP	POS	OWAR	OWS	STARTING LINEUP	POS	OWAR	OWS
Josh Willingham	LF	0.23	9	Christian Yelich	LF	1.34	8.34
Marcell Ozuna	CF/RF	0.16	6.68	Justin Ruggiano	CF	1.11	9.23
Giancarlo Stanton	RF	3.14	16.66	Giancarlo Stanton	RF	3.14	16.66
Adrian Gonzalez	1B	4.12	21.17	Logan Morrison	1B	0.32	6.16
Josh Wilson	2B	-0.11	0.54	Donovan Solano	2B	0.44	6.95
Robert Andino	SS	-0.26	0.82	Adeiny Hechavarria	SS	-2.33	4.28
Miguel Cabrera	3B	6.8	33.13	Ed Lucas	3B	0.42	7.2
Brett Hayes	C	0.17	1.01	Jeff Mathis	C	-0.17	3.22
BENCH	POS	OWAR	OWS	BENCH	POS	OWAR	OWS
Matt Dominguez	3B	0.84	11.34	Marcell Ozuna	RF	0.16	6.68
Gaby Sanchez	1B	1.91	10.36	Placido Polanco	3B	-0.35	5.41
Christian Yelich	LF	1.34	8.34	Chris Coghlan	LF	0.32	5.35
Logan Morrison	1B	0.32	6.16	Derek Dietrich	2B	0.63	5.29
Chris Coghlan	LF	0.32	5.35	Juan Pierre	LF	-0.27	4.38
Jim Adduci	LF	0.03	0.59	Rob Brantly	C	-0.98	2.61
Alex Gonzalez	1B	-0.94	0.32	Greg Dobbs	1B	-0.6	2.5
Mark Kotsay	LF	-1	0.17	Jake Marisnick	CF	0.13	1.54
Kyle Skipworth	C	-0.05	0.01	Miguel Olivo	C	0.17	1.17
Scott Cousins	LF	-0.06	0	Nick Green	SS	-0.01	1.05
				Chris Valaika	2B	-0.13	0.58
				Joe Mahoney	1B	-0.04	0.54
				Koyie Hill	C	-0.55	0.54
				Austin Kearns	RF	-0.13	0.25
				Matt Diaz	LF	-0.14	0.15
				Casey Kotchman	1B	-0.25	0.06
				Kyle Skipworth	C	-0.05	0.01
				Jordan Brown	DH	-0.06	0
				Gil Velazquez	3B	-0.01	0

Jose D. Fernandez (12-6, 2.19) merited 2013 NL Rookie of the Year honors and an All-Star invitation while placing third in the NL Cy Young balloting. Portsider Jason Vargas contributed 9 victories with a 4.02 ERA to the “Originals” rotation and Henderson “The Entertainer” Alvarez fashioned a 3.59 ERA and 1.140 WHIP for the “Actuals” in 17 starts. The Marlins’ bullpen featured Steve Cishek (2.33, 34 SV). A.J. Ramos whiffed 86 batsmen in 68 relief appearances.

  Original 2013 Marlins                             Actual 2013 Marlins 

ROTATION	POS	OWAR	OWS	ROTATION	POS	OWAR	OWS
Jose D. Fernandez	SP	5.57	16.22	Jose D. Fernandez	SP	5.57	16.22
Jason Vargas	SP	2	7.04	Henderson Alvarez	SP	1.89	6.19
Tom Koehler	SP	0.46	3.96	Nathan Eovaldi	SP	1.39	5.63
Brad Hand	SP	0.4	1.43	Ricky Nolasco	SP	1.13	4.92
Alex Sanabia	SP	-0.33	0.6	Jacob Turner	SP	0.87	4.56
BULLPEN	POS	OWAR	OWS	BULLPEN	POS	OWAR	OWS
Steve Cishek	RP	1.62	12.99	Steve Cishek	RP	1.62	12.99
A. J. Ramos	RP	0.34	5.23	Mike Dunn	RP	1.06	6.64
Ronald Belisario	RP	-0.9	2.61	Chad Qualls	RP	1.22	6.22
Sandy Rosario	RP	0.24	2.53	A. J. Ramos	RP	0.34	5.23
Dan Jennings	RP	0.08	1.95	Ryan Webb	RP	0.6	5.02
Ross Wolf	SW	0.14	1.92	Tom Koehler	SP	0.46	3.96
Arquimedes Caminero	RP	0.16	0.95	Kevin Slowey	SP	0.46	3.15
Logan Kensing	RP	0.02	0.1	Dan Jennings	RP	0.08	1.95
Josh Johnson	SP	-1.25	0.04	Brad Hand	SP	0.4	1.43
Josh Beckett	SP	-0.81	0	Arquimedes Caminero	RP	0.16	0.95
Chris Hatcher	RP	-0.93	0	Alex Sanabia	SP	-0.33	0.6
Chris Leroux	RP	-0.17	0	Brian Flynn	SP	-0.59	0.14
Edgar Olmos	RP	-0.68	0	Steve Ames	RP	-0.02	0.02
Chris Resop	RP	-0.6	0	Duane Below	RP	-0.19	0
Chris Volstad	RP	-0.49	0	Sam Dyson	SP	-0.59	0
				Chris Hatcher	RP	-0.93	0
				Wade LeBlanc	SP	-0.41	0
				John Maine	RP	-0.66	0
				Edgar Olmos	RP	-0.68	0
				Zach Phillips	RP	-0.03	0
				Jon Rauch	RP	-0.71	0

 Notable Transactions

Miguel Cabrera 

December 4, 2007: Traded by the Florida Marlins with Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers for Dallas Trahern (minors), Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo. 

Adrian Gonzalez 

July 11, 2003: Traded by the Florida Marlins with Will Smith (minors) and Ryan Snare to the Texas Rangers for Ugueth Urbina.

January 6, 2006: Traded by the Texas Rangers with Terrmel Sledge and Chris Young to the San Diego Padres for Billy Killian (minors), Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka.

December 6, 2010: Traded by the San Diego Padres to the Boston Red Sox for a player to be named later, Reymond Fuentes, Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo. The Boston Red Sox sent Eric Patterson (December 16, 2010) to the San Diego Padres to complete the trade.

August 25, 2012: Traded by the Boston Red Sox with Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto and cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers for players to be named later, Ivan De Jesus, James Loney and Allen Webster. The Los Angeles Dodgers sent Rubby De La Rosa (October 4, 2012) and Jerry Sands (October 4, 2012) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade. 

Matt Dominguez

July 4, 2012: Traded by the Miami Marlins with Rob Rasmussen to the Houston Astros for Carlos Lee.

Gaby Sanchez

July 31, 2012: Traded by the Miami Marlins with Kyle Kaminska (minors) to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Gorkys Hernandez.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1985 Expos

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive