In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.
Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.
Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.
OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams
OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams
OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams
AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams
AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams
APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams
The 2013 Miami Marlins
OWAR: 33.0 OWS: 255 OPW%: .468 (76-86)
AWAR: 18.5 AWS: 185 APW%: .383 (62-100)
WARdiff: 14.5 WSdiff: 70
The “Original” 2013 Marlins tied with the Phillies for last place, yet the ball club managed to school the “Actuals” by a 14-game margin. Miguel Cabrera seized MVP honors for the second consecutive season and notched his third straight batting title. “Miggy” produced a .348 BA, dialed long-distance 44 times and knocked in 137 baserunners. Adrian Gonzalez swatted 22 big-flies and reached the century mark in RBI for the sixth time in his career. Matt Dominguez drilled 25 two-base hits and blasted 21 round-trippers. Giancarlo Stanton supplied 26 doubles and 24 four-baggers as a member of the “Originals” and “Actuals”.
Original 2013 Marlins Actual 2013 Marlins
|STARTING LINEUP||POS||OWAR||OWS||STARTING LINEUP||POS||OWAR||OWS|
|Josh Willingham||LF||0.23||9||Christian Yelich||LF||1.34||8.34|
|Marcell Ozuna||CF/RF||0.16||6.68||Justin Ruggiano||CF||1.11||9.23|
|Giancarlo Stanton||RF||3.14||16.66||Giancarlo Stanton||RF||3.14||16.66|
|Adrian Gonzalez||1B||4.12||21.17||Logan Morrison||1B||0.32||6.16|
|Josh Wilson||2B||-0.11||0.54||Donovan Solano||2B||0.44||6.95|
|Robert Andino||SS||-0.26||0.82||Adeiny Hechavarria||SS||-2.33||4.28|
|Miguel Cabrera||3B||6.8||33.13||Ed Lucas||3B||0.42||7.2|
|Brett Hayes||C||0.17||1.01||Jeff Mathis||C||-0.17||3.22|
|Matt Dominguez||3B||0.84||11.34||Marcell Ozuna||RF||0.16||6.68|
|Gaby Sanchez||1B||1.91||10.36||Placido Polanco||3B||-0.35||5.41|
|Christian Yelich||LF||1.34||8.34||Chris Coghlan||LF||0.32||5.35|
|Logan Morrison||1B||0.32||6.16||Derek Dietrich||2B||0.63||5.29|
|Chris Coghlan||LF||0.32||5.35||Juan Pierre||LF||-0.27||4.38|
|Jim Adduci||LF||0.03||0.59||Rob Brantly||C||-0.98||2.61|
|Alex Gonzalez||1B||-0.94||0.32||Greg Dobbs||1B||-0.6||2.5|
|Mark Kotsay||LF||-1||0.17||Jake Marisnick||CF||0.13||1.54|
|Kyle Skipworth||C||-0.05||0.01||Miguel Olivo||C||0.17||1.17|
|Scott Cousins||LF||-0.06||0||Nick Green||SS||-0.01||1.05|
Jose D. Fernandez (12-6, 2.19) merited 2013 NL Rookie of the Year honors and an All-Star invitation while placing third in the NL Cy Young balloting. Portsider Jason Vargas contributed 9 victories with a 4.02 ERA to the “Originals” rotation and Henderson “The Entertainer” Alvarez fashioned a 3.59 ERA and 1.140 WHIP for the “Actuals” in 17 starts. The Marlins’ bullpen featured Steve Cishek (2.33, 34 SV). A.J. Ramos whiffed 86 batsmen in 68 relief appearances.
Original 2013 Marlins Actual 2013 Marlins
|Jose D. Fernandez||SP||5.57||16.22||Jose D. Fernandez||SP||5.57||16.22|
|Jason Vargas||SP||2||7.04||Henderson Alvarez||SP||1.89||6.19|
|Tom Koehler||SP||0.46||3.96||Nathan Eovaldi||SP||1.39||5.63|
|Brad Hand||SP||0.4||1.43||Ricky Nolasco||SP||1.13||4.92|
|Alex Sanabia||SP||-0.33||0.6||Jacob Turner||SP||0.87||4.56|
|Steve Cishek||RP||1.62||12.99||Steve Cishek||RP||1.62||12.99|
|A. J. Ramos||RP||0.34||5.23||Mike Dunn||RP||1.06||6.64|
|Ronald Belisario||RP||-0.9||2.61||Chad Qualls||RP||1.22||6.22|
|Sandy Rosario||RP||0.24||2.53||A. J. Ramos||RP||0.34||5.23|
|Dan Jennings||RP||0.08||1.95||Ryan Webb||RP||0.6||5.02|
|Ross Wolf||SW||0.14||1.92||Tom Koehler||SP||0.46||3.96|
|Arquimedes Caminero||RP||0.16||0.95||Kevin Slowey||SP||0.46||3.15|
|Logan Kensing||RP||0.02||0.1||Dan Jennings||RP||0.08||1.95|
|Josh Johnson||SP||-1.25||0.04||Brad Hand||SP||0.4||1.43|
|Josh Beckett||SP||-0.81||0||Arquimedes Caminero||RP||0.16||0.95|
|Chris Hatcher||RP||-0.93||0||Alex Sanabia||SP||-0.33||0.6|
|Chris Leroux||RP||-0.17||0||Brian Flynn||SP||-0.59||0.14|
|Edgar Olmos||RP||-0.68||0||Steve Ames||RP||-0.02||0.02|
|Chris Resop||RP||-0.6||0||Duane Below||RP||-0.19||0|
|Chris Volstad||RP||-0.49||0||Sam Dyson||SP||-0.59||0|
December 4, 2007: Traded by the Florida Marlins with Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers for Dallas Trahern (minors), Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo.
July 11, 2003: Traded by the Florida Marlins with Will Smith (minors) and Ryan Snare to the Texas Rangers for Ugueth Urbina.
January 6, 2006: Traded by the Texas Rangers with Terrmel Sledge and Chris Young to the San Diego Padres for Billy Killian (minors), Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka.
December 6, 2010: Traded by the San Diego Padres to the Boston Red Sox for a player to be named later, Reymond Fuentes, Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo. The Boston Red Sox sent Eric Patterson (December 16, 2010) to the San Diego Padres to complete the trade.
August 25, 2012: Traded by the Boston Red Sox with Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto and cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers for players to be named later, Ivan De Jesus, James Loney and Allen Webster. The Los Angeles Dodgers sent Rubby De La Rosa (October 4, 2012) and Jerry Sands (October 4, 2012) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade.
July 4, 2012: Traded by the Miami Marlins with Rob Rasmussen to the Houston Astros for Carlos Lee.
July 31, 2012: Traded by the Miami Marlins with Kyle Kaminska (minors) to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Gorkys Hernandez.
What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1985 Expos
References and Resources
James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.
James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.
The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.
Derek Bain is a New Jersey native with a passion for baseball, statistics, computers and video games. He has written a number of articles for Fangraphs and Seamheads, and enjoys spending quality time with his family.